Cycling 2023 - are the big 6 beatable?

[divica]

almeida for the wiiiiinnnn

 

FINALLY!

[BigFatCoward]

The absurd time trial really throws a spanner in the works. I think nobody will want to go too deep on Thursday or Friday to avoid blowing up on the climb. So I expect it to be less interesting racing than the stages deserve. 

then again Giau foliwed by tre cime could blow anything up even if nobody wants to really push it. 

[divica]

2 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

The absurd time trial really throws a spanner in the works. I think nobody will want to go too deep on Thursday or Friday to avoid blowing up on the climb. So I expect it to be less interesting racing than the stages deserve. 

then again Giau foliwed by tre cime could blow anything up even if nobody wants to really push it. 

It is the reverse.

with the exception of roglic (if he indeed doesn't have the legs) nobody wants to risk it all in a itt that nobody knows who is stronger.

Dunbar and caruso need to gain time against each other. Thomas doesn't want to go to the last stage with only 18 secs. Almeida probably will only attack if he is sure he won't lose much time if things go wrong. Roglic will probably try to be creative on thursday if he is in bad shape and wants to win the giro (the stage on friday is for those who are in really good shape).

[BigFatCoward]

Rog, GT and Almeida are 3 of the most cautious gc riders in the peleton, if curcumstances are right they may go for it, but they arent throwing the dice. 

[BigFatCoward]

Just got round to watching. What a waste of the Queen stage. 

[divica]

PRIIIMMOOOZZZZ ROGLICCC!!

[BigFatCoward]

So to answer my thread title, no. Though if Hart had not crashed he would have probably won. 

[BigFatCoward]

Go on Cav son. Anybody ever won more final stages of grand tours? 

[lmanion]

Once Thomas was in pink I found myself really wanting him to hang onto it. The last TT was great and would have been even better if they had of had Roglic and Thomas on camera for more of it. Don't know if they had issues with maintaining a signal to the cameras following the guys up the mountain.

So happy to watch the end of the final stage today and see Cav get a win. Hopefully it's enough for Astana to really throw support behind him at the tour. Also that is his 54th grand tour stage win I heard on the move podcast.

Edited May 29, 2023 by lmanion

[Maltaran]

Tour de Suisse: Gino Mader dies aged 26 after stage five crash https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/65926606

[BigFatCoward]

6 hours ago, Maltaran said:

Tour de Suisse: Gino Mader dies aged 26 after stage five crash https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/65926606

Yeah, considering the risks they take (eg Pidcock last year in tdf) it's amazing how few die. I think that's about 4 in all the time I've been watching cycling. Horrible news. 

[lmanion]

Here's on odd slightly funny to my warped sense of humour anyway, story from the Albanian national champs. Sounds like some people were sick of this guy being the national champion every year.

 

https://cyclinguptodate.com/cycling/albanian-national-championships-descend-into-chaos-people-have-seen-him-hiding-in-a-forest-oddly-enough-his-strava-data-has-disappeared

[BigFatCoward]

https://www.letour.fr/en/

Its only the Tour de fucking France.  Stage one and two quite interesting, could be some time lost if anyone comes in under cooked (Pog but more on that later).  A moderately good mountain stage on stage 6 also promises to cause problems for anyone who isn't ready.

Puy de Dome which is about as mythical a climb as you can get and hasn't been used for year is back, the last 4k in particular are absolutely brutal.  Everyone is going to want to win that stage. The lack of TT Km is a disgrace but that seems to be the case every year. 

The contenders

if it wasn't for the Crash, Pogacar and Vingegaard would be joint favourites, even though Vingegaard owned him last year, Pog clearly had taken a step up this year again, and Jumbo are nowhere near as strong, however, until we know how the injury affected his prep we really won't know.  He may benefit from the enforced rest as last year he looked knackered after going balls to the wall in every race he entered in the spring. 

Others likely to round out the podium

Hindley, showed a very high level in the mountains last year, and lack of TT works in his favour

Carapaz, not looked great, but normally brings it in the Grand Tours, he isn't winning though if Pogacar and Vingegaard finish

Adam Yates, will be there for Pogacar unless it all goes wrong

Simon Yates, been garbage this year, only person who could perhaps compete with the big 2 if in the form of his life

Landa, benefits from lack of TT, looked great earlier in the season, done nothing recently

Enric Mas, meh

Gaudu, looked terrible at the Dauphine

Skjelmose, dark horse, great at Tour de Suisse

O'Connor, Solid but not going to stop anyone getting any sleep

Rodriguez, young, not shown much this year but was great at the Vuelta last year

Martinez, mercurial to say the least

Bernal, too soon, can compete with the big 2 in his best form, hope he rides into form then goes mad in the mountains at the end of the tour

Pinot, was surprisingly good at the Giro, but will almost certainly be going stage hunting

Pidcock, talk of him going for GC but he has never really shown GC form, and his prep has been mainly MTB races

Its a big shame there is no Remco, Roglic or Ayuso (who might be even better than Pog at the same age), hopefully we get them all going at each other next year with a fully fit Bernal.  

[lmanion]

I think Ayuso is targetting the Vuelta this year but he is looking really good. The lack of TT KMs is something that the French have designed to try and help their riders in recent years. The likes of Bardet and now Gaudu are rubbish at TT and Pinot was only decent on a hilly one when he felt like it. After last year the French clearly thought Gaudu might be a shot at a better finish this year with as few TT KMs as possible.

Hopefully there is a big battle for yellow between the two favourites and someone else lifts up to their level. Mainly though I'm hoping Cav gets his stage win as early as possible.

[BigFatCoward]

We are off. How do I fit in 3 weeks of 6 hours a day with 2 kids, a wife and a job to keep happy? 

Final climb today is brutal. Can't wait, hope nobody crashes and nobody gets covid. 

[BigFatCoward]

Excellent first stage. Hindley on a climb that doesn't suit him staying with the heads of stage bodes well for our Aussie boarders, O'Connor was dogshit. 

Shit for Mas and Carapaz. 

[lmanion]

Yeah looking forward to seeing how Hindley goes he's not really as punchy as the other guys I don't think but it's a good sign that he hasn't really lost time like O'Connor has. I really wonder about the sport science and training side of the French teams some times I mean look at what a beast Laporte is now that he is on one of the top teams in that regard.

The french would love a GC winner but I think they will struggle until a really good young guy goes to a non french team at like 20-21 to push on to really crack it like Pinot and Bardet haven't, Gaudu would be interesting at say Ineos but I'm sure he will stay at FdJ and have a career like those 2. Not bad but never quite cracking that really elite level especially over 3 weeks

[BigFatCoward]

Last 4k of the final climb tomorrow are brutal, but probably far too far from the finish to he important for the GC. 

[BigFatCoward]

Everybody playing silly buggers and letting Hindley get 4 minutes with only a small mountain and a medium mountain to go, he's a Giro winner and looked like he was riding into form at Dauphine, idiots.  Making it interesting though.

[karaddin]

Yeah this is looking very interesting now. Hindley seemed pretty confused and amused the they let him go like that.