What will happen in the North after the Battle of Ice ?

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

25 minutes ago, Nevets said:

My main point with Rickon is that assuming he will make it south of the Wall early in the book with minimal difficulty is a dangerous assumption to make.  He might, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.  Or even a small shed.  I think he's gone for a long time, which seriously screws up the Manderly plans.  And when the Stark girls show up, things could get complicated for the Manderlys.

Jon is not only Lord Commander.  He is the son of Ned Stark and the brother, and probably heir, of King Robb.  That gives him lots of legitimacy.  Combine that with being in charge of an independent military outfit, and you get the perfect go-to person for leading military expeditions and mediating disputes.  He would likely be perceived as a neutral honest broker.  He's already intervened in one dispute, involving the Karstarks succession.  He can do everything a king does, except actually be one, something specifically prohibited by his oath.

Unless the mutiny is a lot more widespread and popular than I think it is, Jon will still have the support, or at least acquiescence, of the great majority of the Watch.  So I don't see him leaving over a murder attempt by a disaffected minority.  As for claiming he died, I find it hard to imagine Jon Snow, of all people, slithering out of a solemn obligation through a disputed loophole.

Bran and Rickon are above Jon and their sisters in the line of succession by law, even with Jon being legitimised by Robb's will, besides Jon is Robb's heir based on the assumption of Jon being the only remaining son of Ned Stark. Bran and Rickon's survival and the presence of Rickon might not cancel Jon's legitimisation but it will surely cause most to not see Jon as Robb's legal heir anymore. Plus there's the issue of Jon leaving the Night's Watch that may cause some problems at first, before Robb's will is revealed.

Rickon's presence will also screw or destroy further Littlefinger's plan to take control of the North via Sansa, since Rickon is above Sansa too in the line of succession.

And I don't see Jon staying in the Night's Watch after such a traumatic experience of being killed betrayed by his own comrades, and being brought back to life. And the fact remains that the Night's Watch has no authority over the North. 

Edited June 19, 2023 by Terrorthatflapsinthenight9

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

Skagos will undoubtly have a big importance in the war against the Others, with all the obsidian on the island. 

Davos or Osha will surely tell Jon and Sansa about it after the Stark reunion. 

The Manderly fleet will also surely serve some important purpose given how it was hinted during ACOK, and all the importance it was given to during ADWD. 

[csuszka1948]

On 6/17/2023 at 3:07 PM, Craving Peaches said:

Stannis wins the battle for Winterfell and takes the castle but dies of starvation. His army is already starving, and the supply situation inside the castle isn't looking good. With the heavy snows, I doubt any of his Northern allies will be able to transport supplies in time either.

 

Is there any hint in the text that it's true?

Also, if the worst comes to worst, it could come to cannibalism of the bodies of the killed enemy soldiers.

 

Anyways, it looks a really anti-climactic end and I don't see it happening, perhaps your dislike of Stannis colors your opinion a bit.

[Craving Peaches]

1 hour ago, csuszka1948 said:

Is there any hint in the text that it's true?

Quote

He might prefer to cut the castle off from the outside world and starve out its defenders. Winterfell's storerooms and cellar vaults were empty. A long supply train had come with Bolton and his friends of Frey up through the Neck, Lady Dustin had brought food and fodder from Barrowton, and Lord Manderly had arrived well provisioned from White Harbor … but the host was large. With so many mouths to feed, their stores could not last for long. Lord Stannis and his men will be just as hungry, though. And cold and footsore as well, in no condition for a fight … but the storm will make them desperate to get inside the castle.

Also, logistically, I would expect they are running out of provisions. Many of the people there were there for the Wedding, not to stay for long, but (I think) the snows and Stannis approaching have stopped them from leaving. I don't think Winterfell has enough food to feed that many people for an extended period of time. Ramsay burned Winterfell before, destroying prior supplies including (the crops in the) Glass Gardens, and they had to bring lots of food with them for the Wedding (Lord Manderly appears to be the one who supplied most/all of the food, and a large portion of it is perishable seafood). I'm not saying it's as bad as in Stannis' camp there, just that the supplies won't last very long with the numbers and the fact they can't bring more food in very quickly due to the snows. Everywhere in the North and most of Westeros aside from the Reach is running low on food.

1 hour ago, csuszka1948 said:

Anyways, it looks a really anti-climactic end and I don't see it happening, perhaps your dislike of Stannis colors your opinion a bit.

It has nothing to do with my dislike of Stannis, but the logistics of the situation he is in. I cannot see a way for him to not starve. We are hammered over the head with how bad the lack of food supply is in Stannis' army. Men are trying to eat each other, they are so hungry. If Stannis loses the battle, he will starve. If he wins the battle but has to besiege Winterfell, he will starve. If Stannis does not take Winterfell quickly, he will starve. He cannot go back because of the weather and lack of food, it also makes no sense for him to do so because he is closer to Winterfell than not. But the food in Winterfell is also running out. And with the Winter snows setting in, I do not think it likely that Stannis can have extra food ferried over in time. Meaning that even if Stannis takes Winterfell, he will also starve. The only way I can see starvation being prevented is if Stannis does defeat the Freys and Boltons so can take Winterfell, but also loses so many of his own men that the supplies in there are enough. But either way it would seem Stannis' campaign is over.

It would be an anti-climatic ending, but it makes a sort of thematic sense for me. Stannis has nearly starved before, this time there is no Davos to save him. But it is a sort of inversion as this time, he is the besieger. Stannis also arguably abandoned the 'True Battle' with the Others by leaving the Wall and marching south to play the Game of Thrones again. Stannis himself has also made preparations for his death, and Barbrey Dustin expects him to die.

Edited July 2, 2023 by Craving Peaches

[csuszka1948]

2 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Also, logistically, I would expect they are running out of provisions. Many of the people there were there for the Wedding, not to stay for long, but (I think) the snows and Stannis approaching have stopped them from leaving. I don't think Winterfell has enough food to feed that many people for an extended period of time. Ramsay burned Winterfell before, destroying prior supplies including (the crops in the) Glass Gardens, and they had to bring lots of food with them for the Wedding (Lord Manderly appears to be the one who supplied most/all of the food, and a large portion of it is perishable seafood). I'm not saying it's as bad as in Stannis' camp there, just that the supplies won't last very long with the numbers and the fact they can't bring more food in very quickly due to the snows. Everywhere in the North and most of Westeros aside from the Reach is running low on food.

Roose doesn't seem to think it a danger. I am not saying that they could last a full winter, just that they could last half a year.

2 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

It has nothing to do with my dislike of Stannis, but the logistics of the situation he is in. I cannot see a way for him to not starve. We are hammered over the head with how bad the lack of food supply is in Stannis' army. Men are trying to eat each other, they are so hungry. If Stannis loses the battle, he will starve. If he wins the battle but has to besiege Winterfell, he will starve. If Stannis does not take Winterfell quickly, he will starve. He cannot go back because of the weather and lack of food, it also makes no sense for him to do so because he is closer to Winterfell than not. But the food in Winterfell is also running out. And with the Winter snows setting in, I do not think it likely that Stannis can have extra food ferried over in time. Meaning that even if Stannis takes Winterfell, he will also starve. The only way I can see starvation being prevented is if Stannis does defeat the Freys and Boltons so can take Winterfell, but also loses so many of his own men that the supplies in there are enough. But either way it would seem Stannis' campaign is over.

Well, that seems a pretty probable scenario.

If Stannis defeats the Freys (and Manderlys) at the lake, he can use his knowledge of the Karstark treachery to his advantage, dressing up clansmen as Karstark and Frey soldiers and send them in to report to Roose (giving him his sword, plus heads of his men who died as evidence) and open the doors of WF for the rest of Stannis' men. Such a battle within WF would likely claim a lot of casualties (the Northmen inside would see the Karstarks and the hated Freys turning cloak again and would instinctually side with the Boltons first before the truth is cleared).

I agree that it will mean the end of Stannis' campaign, though, he definitely cannot march south.

That said, it brings up a good question: who will bring food to WF? Because I am pretty sure that it will remain an important place during the last 2 books and Jon and wildlings will eventually get there.

The Vale is the perhaps the idea that makes the most sense, but I don't expect LF's plan to go smoothly.

2 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

It would be an anti-climatic ending, but it makes a sort of thematic sense for me. Stannis has nearly starved before, this time there is no Davos to save him. But it is a sort of inversion as this time, he is the besieger. Stannis also arguably abandoned the 'True Battle' with the Others by leaving the Wall and marching south to play the Game of Thrones again. Stannis himself has also made preparations for his death, and Barbrey Dustin expects him to die.

 

I don't think that's entirely true. Stannis - just like seemingly Jon - thinks that a united North is necessary to withstand the Others, his two thousand men at the Wall won't be enough.

People expect him to die and he seems to be in a horrible situation, but in ASOIAF, that's probably a sign that he (the underdog) will win. :-) Robb seemed to be an underdog against the Lannister before the Whispering Wood, Stannis against Renly and the Lannisters against Stannis in ACOK, the Watch was an underdog against the wildlings and they all eventually won. Robb in ASOS is the only example when a clearly underdog has lost, but even there his death isn't spelled out by anyone and Balon's death gives additional hope to him.

Besides, Stannis burning Shireen has been already confirmed and it cannot happen if he starves to death. It's also a much more fitting end to his character arc than being starved to death because he wanted to defeat the Boltons.

[Craving Peaches]

2 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Roose doesn't seem to think it a danger. I am not saying that they could last a full winter, just that they could last half a year.

True, but then on the other hand we don't really see much of what Roose is thinking at all, other than that he doesn't want all those people in the castle, so he sends a lot of those that aren't his own men out to fight Stannis... which would also mean more food for his men.

4 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

People expect him to die and he seems to be in a horrible situation, but in ASOIAF, that's probably a sign that he (the underdog) will win. :-)

Thing is Stannis already had his chance to 'win' at the Blackwater and blew it. Also, if he feels the need to burn Shireen, he can't exactly be 'winning'. And since the books presumably aren't pro-human sacrifice, I don't think the sacrifice of Shireen will make him 'win', unless it goes horribly right and he does win, but not at all how he wanted (e.g. he is king by being the Night's King or something, not that I necessarily think that will happen, just an example of a twisted 'be careful what you wish for' scenario).

[csuszka1948]

10 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Thing is Stannis already had his chance to 'win' at the Blackwater and blew it.

Also, if he feels the need to burn Shireen, he can't exactly be 'winning'. And since the books presumably aren't pro-human sacrifice, I don't think the sacrifice of Shireen will make him 'win', unless it goes horribly right and he does win, but not at all how he wanted (e.g. he is king by being the Night's King or something, not that I necessarily think that will happen, just an example of a twisted 'be careful what you wish for' scenario).

 

I was talking about the Battle of Ice and Winterfell, not the Iron Throne.

ADWD set up Stannis as an absolute underdog here, and based on previous examples it is likely that this means he will win. The first Theon chapter has set up the means for it.

Eventually, he will burn Shireen and fail (or 'win' by becoming twisted as you say), but Shireen is far away and he won't retreat now. 

[Corvo the Crow]

On 7/2/2023 at 9:36 PM, Craving Peaches said:

Many of the people there were there for the Wedding, not to stay for long, but (I think) the snows and Stannis approaching have stopped them from leaving.

No, they were there to attract Stannis in the first place

Quote

"Even ruined and broken, Winterfell remains Lady Arya's home. What better place to wed her, bed her, and stake your claim? That is only half of it, however. We would be fools to march on Stannis. Let Stannis march on us. He is too cautious to come to Barrowton … but he must come to Winterfell. His clansmen will not abandon the daughter of their precious Ned to such as you. Stannis must march or lose them … and being the careful commander that he is, he will summon all his friends and allies when he marches. He will summon Arnolf Karstark."

Also Winterfell being bare of any provisions isn't important if Martin wishes. Remember Stannis hadjust a thousand or so men left and suddenly men started to spawn from the rocks themselves and it wasn't because Stannis laid with the mountain and impregnated it. Everything appears and disappears out of nowhere whenever Martin feels like it and I find it very terrible, feels lik the narrative is too forced instead of feeling more natural. 

[Craving Peaches]

3 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Also Winterfell being bare of any provisions isn't important if Martin wishes. Remember Stannis hadjust a thousand or so men left and suddenly men started to spawn from the rocks themselves and it wasn't because Stannis laid with the mountain and impregnated it. Everything appears and disappears out of nowhere whenever Martin feels like it and I find it very terrible, feels lik the narrative is too forced instead of feeling more natural. 

That's true, but it would be a bit jarring when the food either magically multiplies or it is retconed into never being an issue in the first place...

[Maegor_the_Cool]

I’m predicting a Pyrrhic victory for Stannis. He’ll win the Battle, but Ramsay escapes and his army is devastated. The Northern lords turn on the Boltons and Stannis for their one true King. Stark. Ramsay I think survives long enough to face Jon, as quite frankly I feel they need to meet each other before Ramsay dies. After that i suspect a possible Dance of the Wolves. Not a full blown Civil War, but I think Jon will have supporters in the North, and so will Rickon. While I expect Jon to return hardened and darkened by his experiences, I doubt he is so far gone as to harm one of his siblings. After that, I’d expect one of them to be King in the North.

[Corvo the Crow]

23 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

That's true, but it would be a bit jarring when the food either magically multiplies or it is retconed into never being an issue in the first place...

Stannis can just make godly love with the Winterfell greenhouses. If it works on the mountain and gives birth to hill clansmen, then making love with greenhouse should result in producing green men. I know it's no meat but greens would still provide enough to prevent starvation.

[Craving Peaches]

2 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Stannis can just make godly love with the Winterfell greenhouses.

They are broken though. He could cut himself and then die of infection.

[Corvo the Crow]

1 minute ago, Craving Peaches said:

They are broken though. He could cut himself and then die of infection.

The guy wants to sit on the Iron Throne, I think he can handle a few glass cuts.

[Craving Peaches]

1 minute ago, Corvo the Crow said:

The guy wants to sit on the Iron Throne, I think he can handle a few glass cuts.

But presumably he is not trying to 'produce' anything with the Throne, as opposed to the greenhouses?

[Corvo the Crow]

4 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

But presumably he is not trying to 'produce' anything with the Throne, as opposed to the greenhouses?

Now that I think of it, Baratheons could be immune to cuts, infections etc. or else Robert would've died long ago.

 

[Craving Peaches]

4 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Now that I think of it, Baratheons could be immune to cuts, infections etc. or else Robert would've died long ago.

 

Robert didn't cut himself because he was a worthy king. The Throne has spoken. My argument is irrefutable.

[csuszka1948]

16 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Robert didn't cut himself because he was a worthy king. The Throne has spoken. My argument is irrefutable.

 

I think the Throne found him unworthy and wanted to prolong his suffering as punishment.

[chrisdaw]

I think the story destination in the North is pretty easily predicted and the path there not so interesting. Stannis is going to sacrifice Shireen become an ice dragon and fly off to join/lead the Others. Jon is going to pick up where human good guy Stannis left off, defeat the Boltons and solidify all the north under his leadership, then head south.