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Was Littlefinger aiming for continent-spanning war or not?


Craving Peaches
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I was always of the opinion that he was gunning for the whole thing to kick off roughly like it did, but recently I have seen people argue that actually, he was just taking advantage of the chaos, some of which he contributed to, and that things turning out as they did was a bonus, not something he planned. At the very least though, I do think he was aiming for war or confrontation between the Starks (and by extension their allies) and Lannisters. I do get the impression that Littlefinger acts spontaneously when it benefits him to do so, but at the same time I think he has some sort of overarching plan.

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1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

I was always of the opinion that he was gunning for the whole thing to kick off roughly like it did, but recently I have seen people argue that actually, he was just taking advantage of the chaos, some of which he contributed to, and that things turning out as they did was a bonus, not something he planned. At the very least though, I do think he was aiming for war or confrontation between the Starks (and by extension their allies) and Lannisters. I do get the impression that Littlefinger acts spontaneously when it benefits him to do so, but at the same time I think he has some sort of overarching plan.

He doesnt awnser to anyone and has no real allies thus yeah he can improvise at will...cause chaos and strike deals is his plan.

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I do think he was trying to stir up a war between Stark and Lannister. But that can't have been everything because if that was his principal goal, there was no reason not to side with Ned following Robert's death: Ned's intentions were going to lead to war between Stark and Lannister anyway. He may have always intended to try to eliminate Ned (thus freeing up Cat).

It also seems unlikely that he anticipated quite the complete shitshow that went down after Robert's death: under the circumstances, Stark vs Baratheon of KL/Lannister was pretty inevitable, as was Stannis vs Baratheon of KL/Lannister... but surely the full extent of the chaos, with Stannis and Robb ending up on different sides, and Renly and Balon opening their own accounts, exceeded his wildest dreams?

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LF is a plot device and GRRM is a gardener, whose plans have changed regarding him.

 

In AGOT, he was meant to be the character who fucks up with Ned (the antagonist of the book), and GRRM probably planned to have Tyrion send him to the Night's Watch in the next book as 'justice' - that's why he was slimy and distrusted by everyone, that's why his betrayal of Ned happened in the open, Cat told Tyrion LF's lie about the dagger and Tywin gave permission to Tyrion to use 'heads, spikes, walls' against their enemies.

However, while writing the next book, he came up with the twist of LF being behind Jon's murder&Wo5K and Sansa's future mentor which have worked pretty well except for the lie about the dagger, and ACOK has some weak reasoning why Tyrion ignored it and let LF get away with his crime. This change is why he suddenly becomes a trusted character by almost everyone (even Cat 'trusted him little' in AGOT).

 

Overall, LF's purpose was probably stoking a Stark-Lannister conflict and using it to somehow advance himself, but I don't think he counted with Renly crowned King.

Edited by csuszka1948
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9 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

I do think he was trying to stir up a war between Stark and Lannister. But that can't have been everything because if that was his principal goal, there was no reason not to side with Ned following Robert's death: Ned's intentions were going to lead to war between Stark and Lannister anyway. He may have always intended to try to eliminate Ned (thus freeing up Cat).

It also seems unlikely that he anticipated quite the complete shitshow that went down after Robert's death: under the circumstances, Stark vs Baratheon of KL/Lannister was pretty inevitable, as was Stannis vs Baratheon of KL/Lannister... but surely the full extent of the chaos, with Stannis and Robb ending up on different sides, and Renly and Balon opening their own accounts, exceeded his wildest dreams?

Neds intentions though would have united the realm behind him as temp regent  putting stannis on the throne  and stannis was in favour of cutting out lfs main  personal intellegence and revenue source...his brothels!!!

Stannis also would be the sort of man  who in power wouldnt cut deals with Lf , and would probably spend frugaly too reducing the need for someone like lf controlling the states walllet! He may also see  lysa being unmarried and in control of the vale as and issue thus  make her remarry

Theres a few ways in which siding with ned after roberts death without securing a deal might be horrible for lf

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17 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

I was always of the opinion that he was gunning for the whole thing to kick off roughly like it did, but recently I have seen people argue that actually, he was just taking advantage of the chaos, some of which he contributed to, and that things turning out as they did was a bonus, not something he planned. At the very least though, I do think he was aiming for war or confrontation between the Starks (and by extension their allies) and Lannisters. I do get the impression that Littlefinger acts spontaneously when it benefits him to do so, but at the same time I think he has some sort of overarching plan.

His overarching plan is to help Illyrio crash the iron bank so they can set themselves up as the dominant traders on the Narrow Sea.

So in that regard, he was trying to ramp up the tension between wolf and lion at first, but when the unexpected happened at the inn and the banners were being called, he had to pivot: talking the small council out of sending a faceless man after Dany and getting Robert to make a public proclamation for her death to spur Drogo into invading Westeros sooner rather than later -- exactly what Illyrio needed to happen.

So no, he doesn't do things at random. He doesn't just kill random people, particularly kings, just to confuse his enemies. Everything is bent toward a specific goal.

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16 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

Yeah seems a bit much

What makes me think it is not plausible, is it having to make up a series of hereto unmentioned and currently non-existent characters for the plot of the theory to function. LF/Illyrio suddenly have all these 'proxy depositors' that we hear no mention of whatsoever in any of the moments featuring either Littlefinger or Illyrio, nor is it mentioned when we are in Braavos. There is no sign that the Iron Bank is unstable. If they were, people in Braavos would be talking about it, Arya would hear something.

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2 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

What makes me think it is not plausible, is it having to make up a series of hereto unmentioned and currently non-existent characters for the plot of the theory to function. LF/Illyrio suddenly have all these 'proxy depositors' that we hear no mention of whatsoever in any of the moments featuring either Littlefinger or Illyrio, nor is it mentioned when we are in Braavos. There is no sign that the Iron Bank is unstable. If they were, people in Braavos would be talking about it, Arya would hear something.

Id say its more the idea one bank brings down bravos , iyrio gets to be hand of king and rejects that to kill whats probably his son,ilyrio  somehow becomes the new big bank ahead of other established banks etc

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On 7/31/2023 at 9:35 AM, Alester Florent said:

I do think he was trying to stir up a war between Stark and Lannister. But that can't have been everything because if that was his principal goal, there was no reason not to side with Ned following Robert's death: Ned's intentions were going to lead to war between Stark and Lannister anyway. He may have always intended to try to eliminate Ned (thus freeing up Cat).

It also seems unlikely that he anticipated quite the complete shitshow that went down after Robert's death: under the circumstances, Stark vs Baratheon of KL/Lannister was pretty inevitable, as was Stannis vs Baratheon of KL/Lannister... but surely the full extent of the chaos, with Stannis and Robb ending up on different sides, and Renly and Balon opening their own accounts, exceeded his wildest dreams?

I really don't think he has any intentions but revenge towards Cat and I think he only sees Sansa as a tool to help in his rise to power. He became a simply hostile and single minded person.

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On 7/31/2023 at 11:45 AM, Craving Peaches said:

What makes me think it is not plausible, is it having to make up a series of hereto unmentioned and currently non-existent characters for the plot of the theory to function. LF/Illyrio suddenly have all these 'proxy depositors' that we hear no mention of whatsoever in any of the moments featuring either Littlefinger or Illyrio, nor is it mentioned when we are in Braavos. There is no sign that the Iron Bank is unstable. If they were, people in Braavos would be talking about it, Arya would hear something.

Well of course you don't hear about any of this. It's not like Illyrio is going to trumpet the plan all over the known world.

There are plenty of signs that the iron bank is in a bad way. No, the people in Braavos would not be talking about it because they do not know. How could they? They will only start to realize it after Stannis is dead and it becomes clear that this time, the iron bank will not get its due.

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