What if a Lannister-Stark Alliance was formed in 112 AC?

[balefired-ed]

This thought struck me the other day while watching House of the Dragon. It seems like just a natural alliance to me. They have the same general attitude toward female rule, share a historical enmity towards the Ironborn, to my Knowledge have never engaged in direct warfare with each other prior to the Dance, and hold a major grudge against House Targaryen, Rhaenyra’s rejection of marriage to either Lord Jason or Ser Tyland in the Lannister case, the taking of the New Gift and dealing with the consequences of it in the Stark case.

 

There is also the fact that each can offer something the other wants and/or needs. Land in exchange for investment.

Does this make sense to anyone else, or am I crazy?

[Nathan Stark]

Well, it could work in theory, especially regarding the Ironborn. The main obstacle is that other than the Ironborn, the North and Westerlands are geographically separated and don't share many other similar interests. I doubt the Starks held too much of a grudge against the Targaryens regarding the New Gift, since it didn't affect lands held directly by the Starks, and because it helped the Nights Watch. If anything, Alysanne seems to have charmed the spots off Alaric Stark.

[SaffronLady]

45 minutes ago, balefired-ed said:

They ... hold a major grudge against House Targaryen

Even if we go back to conquest era history, many Lannister soldiers (including, likely, many highborn) were killed at the Field of Fire, while the North in general and the Starks in particular don't have much of a grudge with the HotD because Torrhen surrendered very quickly.

And besides, the North has barely any common interest with ... anyone south of the Neck. Even with the Ironborn factored in, it remains highly unlikely for the Starks to ally with a southron house. The North has so far only sent major expeditions south in the middle of major civil wars (DoD, RR, WT5K) IIRC.

[Alester Florent]

1 hour ago, balefired-ed said:

This thought struck me the other day while watching House of the Dragon. It seems like just a natural alliance to me. They have the same general attitude toward female rule, share a historical enmity towards the Ironborn, to my Knowledge have never engaged in direct warfare with each other prior to the Dance, and hold a major grudge against House Targaryen, Rhaenyra’s rejection of marriage to either Lord Jason or Ser Tyland in the Lannister case, the taking of the New Gift and dealing with the consequences of it in the Stark case.

Were the Starks not pretty much the only major house outside their respective families to support the claims of Rhaenys and Laenor? And then the one great house to firmly and consistently back Rhaenyra too?

Edited August 1, 2023 by Alester Florent

[balefired-ed]

6 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

Were the Starks not pretty much the only major house outside their respective families to support the claims of Rhaenys and Laenor?

The Starks support of Laenor was born of spite for the creation of the new gift. We never see women inheriting over men like you might see in Dorne.

[SaffronLady]

8 hours ago, balefired-ed said:

The Starks support of Laenor was born of spite for the creation of the new gift. We never see women inheriting over men like you might see in Dorne.

Wasn't the Starks' attitude more "Yeah our last lord swore his oath, and we inherit it"?

8 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

And then the one great house to firmly and consistently back Rhaenyra too?

IIRC:

1. Starks: Black through and through, though Northern participation for most of the war was small in numbers (Winter Wolves), because the Starks cannot muster their troops fast enough;
2. Tyrells: Neutral - Lord Tyrell was an infant
3. Tullys: Divided, Kermit Tully ended up being a major Black
4. Lannisters: Green through and through
5. Baratheons: Green through and through
6. Greyjoys: Offline, apparently; Dalton Greyjoy only attacked during the reign of A3gon
7. Arryns: Black through and through
8. Martells: Not part of the realm. Yet.

[The hairy bear]

9 hours ago, balefired-ed said:

The Starks support of Laenor was born of spite for the creation of the new gift.

It doesn't seem a very strong motivation: Viserys was Jaehaerys' grandson, and Laenor his grand-grandson. There may have been some resentment that might have played a part, but it can't have been the only factor.

9 hours ago, balefired-ed said:

We never see women inheriting over men like you might see in Dorne

While it is true that the North is not as progressive as Dorne, it's still by far the region where we have more examples of ruling ladies: Dacey Mormont, Barbrey Dustin, Lyessa Flint, Jonelle Cerwyn, Eddara Tallhart, and Donella Hornwood. This may be circumstantial, but still a case can be made that the first men culture is less adverse to ruling women than the Andal tradition.

[balefired-ed]

1 hour ago, SaffronLady said:

Wasn't the Starks' attitude more "Yeah our last lord swore his oath, and we inherit it"?

Laenor being Laenor Velaryon, who was the candidate Viserys one beat for the throne in the Council of 101 AC.

 

And in this scenario, I was trying to gage opinion on what would happen if the Starks and Lannisters made common cause before the Dance, sorry if I wasn’t clear, I was a bit high when I wrote it.

[SaffronLady]

20 minutes ago, balefired-ed said:

I was trying to gauge opinion on what would happen

Sorry for not getting the timeframe right, I was in "ok Rhaenyra's supporters were..." mode.

[James Arryn]

48 minutes ago, The hairy bear said:

It doesn't seem a very strong motivation: Viserys was Jaehaerys' grandson, and Laenor his grand-grandson. There may have been some resentment that might have played a part, but it can't have been the only factor.

While it is true that the North is not as progressive as Dorne, it's still by far the region where we have more examples of ruling ladies: Dacey Mormont, Barbrey Dustin, Lyessa Flint, Jonelle Cerwyn, Eddara Tallhart, and Donella Hornwood. This may be circumstantial, but still a case can be made that the first men culture is less adverse to ruling women than the Andal tradition.

That’s imo more because we simply read about a lot more houses and their structure than we do for any southern region, with the RL (due more to being the principal setting of the Wot5K/arguably ASOIAF so far, and the Westerlands due to House Lannister being the 2nd most POV represented to Stark, so we get some incidental musings about Forley or Prester Flement Braxton, but it’s usually pretty brief, like Jaime thinking who would make a good Hand or w/e. Cersei rarely thinks of people not actually in her presence excepting obsessions with Tyrion and house Tyrell, so really it’s Tyrion (who again shows us far more of the North than the West and visits four Kingdoms and Essos, but no West) and Jaime who is in the RL or KL the entire time.
 

We never even see the West, not once. Lots of the North and RL, lots of KL, then Essos more than any of the other 7K..next would probably be the Stormlands or Reach if we count Dunk. To my way of thinking the contradiction you point out; that we know the names of female northern rulers or heirs far more than Dornish ones despite knowing for a fact that female rulers are and must be far, far more prevalent in Dorne than in the North. We just don’t get anywhere near the same detail about Dorne. So I’d be wary of using sheer volume of knowledge as distinguishing the North beyond just generally more character detail being about the North. 
 

Conversely the North seems to have had the widest usage of that First Night absurdity, as well as remaining the region where it is most mentioned being still in usage, though this too might just be the downside to hearing most about Northern houses, etc. Except it seems like it being much more prevalent in the North is a long standing opinion. 

[Green Stag]

Why would the North make a better ally for the Westerlands than the Riverlands or the Reach?  While the Westerlands doesn't appear to be particularly "food poor", both of these regions could likely supply more goods as a trade partner than the North, particularly food, and get them there more easily.  Military-wise the Conquest, Dance, and the Wot5K all demonstrate a delay in getting forces into the south to fight.  And everyone with a coastline on the Sunset Sea has a problem with the Ironborn.  

As far as what WOULD have happened if they made common cause, it is hard to tell.  Blood and marriage ties don't always ensure houses being the same side (Lysa Arryn being a good example).  However there is a good chance there is no Battle by the Lakeshore, the Westerland army isn't completely crushed, and the Greyjoys maybe don't take advantage of the Lannister weakness and join the Greens.

In the end, it might not make any difference at the end of the Dance.   

[The hairy bear]

14 hours ago, James Arryn said:

That’s imo more because we simply read about a lot more houses and their structure than we do for any southern region

But the appendixes give us the gender of the main lords of each region, so I'd say the comparison is still fair.

Out of 18 Northern houses, 6 are ruled by females at some point during the books (33,3%). Out of 22 houses from the West, 2 are ruled by females (9,1%).

14 hours ago, James Arryn said:

Conversely the North seems to have had the widest usage of that First Night absurdity, as well as remaining the region where it is most mentioned being still in usage, though this too might just be the downside to hearing most about Northern houses, etc. Except it seems like it being much more prevalent in the North is a long standing opinion. 

Fair enough. But at the same time, there's the fact that the two most significant groups of First Men that have remained free of Andal influence seem to be fairly open to leading women: the wildlings have many clan mothers and spearwives, while the Mountain Clans have Chella amongst their most important chieftains)

[maesternewton]

On 8/1/2023 at 5:07 AM, balefired-ed said:

They have the same general attitude toward female rule

What general attitude? 

The Lannisters and Starks are really not more patriarchal, or misogynistic than the rest of the Westeros.