Green Stag

I think Tywin is both ambitious and practical. His actions and his morals are mutable depending on what he thinks will work best to get him what he wants. Tywin would be pious, or at least appear to be, if it helped him get / maintain his goals. He will be pious and follow the Seven as it helps him keep power / keep the Kingdom together, but I don't see any real following of the religion. Do you mean if he were re-written as a religious man his actions would largely be the same?

Agreed, ultimately the mistake was Argilac's. The dowery included lands Argilac didn't control (at least not fully), and would almost certainly put Aegon at odds with the Iron Born sooner or later - not that it mattered that much, but it seems fairly obvious Argilac was trying to put a buffer between his lands and the Iron Born. As far as we can tell, it also didn't ensure Aegon would eventually take the rest of the Stormlands, Argilac could name someone else heir (if he didn't have a son from another marriage). It also didn't include Argilac submitting to Aegon, and it seems Aegon had already decided / prepared to take Westeros, so would have wanted his submission. Argilac could have easily put himself into a position to be part of Aegon's inner circle and likely kept more of his lands. Even if he had resisted the Targaryens, he still would likely have the Iron Born to deal with.

The Faith ultimately couldn't do that much about it either way with the Targaryen dragons. My thought it is he may have already been considering the need to eventually convert, if so a third marriage to someone likely already in the Faith could be problem for the Faith / conversion. His total gain by joining with the Faith and playing nice with them is likely more than his gain with a marriage to Argella. There would also be possibility of setting of a new precedent: If the king had married one former king's / lord paramount's daughter, then what about the others? Eventually they would all likely insist on a queen from their region / family. Does sibling marriage and hundreds of years of tradition get tossed out? There is also a theory that he was sterile and not able to have children, and that Aenys and Maegor are not actually his. If his sterility was suspected by him or some of the close advisors at court (including his sisters), this would have been another reason to discourage another marriage to an outsider as it would increase the likelihood of the secret getting out.

Didn't he refuse a Hightower marriage later on? The reason being he might insult his sister-wives IIRC. A marriage to Argella wouldn't be the worst idea in the world, however this may have been a "foreign concept" to him - Targaryens tended to wed Targaryens when available. He also may have thought it may alienate his power base, not just his sisters (who have dragons....), but Diftmark and Claw Isle as well. Would the children of Aegon and Argella get dragons? We know what happens in the future with a split power base that both have dragons. Lastly he may have already been thinking about converting to the Seven, it seems this could cause some issues as well as it does't allow for polygamy -would the Faith accept such a marriage?

I mostly agree with this. The more complex you make a lie, the more difficult it is to keep straight. As you say, the only person Ned MUST answer is Robert, and this is apparently the only time he mentions a mother/Wylla. However I do think Ned is a bit complex with his honor, and he does have some common sense. He in no way would wish to insult Ashara's honor, and bastards born to a noble woman a bit different: Edric Storm receives name-day gifts in his father's name and is educated as if he were a noble vs Mya Stone who is not acknowledged and ferries people on mules. If Ashara was named as Jon's mother Cat may be more inclined to insist on Ned trying to arrange for him to be a ward at Starfall (which seems a valid argument / request). Jon would definitely ask about Ashara if he thought she was his mother, and might also wish to try and go to Starfall at some point. Bottom line I think using Ashara's name potentially opens the door for more questions, which Ned doesn't want.

If Varys knew / knows about Jon, he has had some 14 years to take him out, and placing someone in Robert's entourage would have been a fairly easily way to get to Winterfell and possibly kill either Ned or Jon. Assuming Varys is somehow responsible for Jaqen's presence in KL, I don't think he would have made Ned the target, Ned is potentially vulnerable on arrival in KL, and once in the dungeons easily taken out - if Varys wanted him dead arranging an "accident" in the Black Cells should be easy, instead IIRC Varys talks him into taking the Black. Also, think about Varys later killing both Pycelle and Kevan Lannister - little effort, no Faceless Men needed. I think if Varys wanted a Faceless Man to target anyone in might be Stannis. Stannis knows about the incest, has the best claim after Robert's death, and in Varys' own words "utterly without mercy". I don't have a good explanation for you as to how he got in the dungeon (doesn't seem to make sense), but I don't feel that targeting Ned or Jon adds up.

A bit off topic perhaps, but Lord Frey (Walder's father) was with Bloodraven at the end of the second Blackfyre rebellion (IIRC), his / House Frey's punishment is never revealed, and the Freys don't seem to have lost any significant wealth or territory some 80 - 90 years later. Could Lord Frey have been an agent, or forced to become an agent of Bloodraven / the Iron Throne to avoid punishment? Stevron's Freys birth does correspond with the Peake Uprising, however if directly related, what did House Royce get out of it? Later, Stevron is wed to Correna Swann (who, like the Royces appear to be roughly around the second most powerful house of their respective region), her son Ryman's birth seems to approximately correspond to that of Steffon Baratheon (246), so possibly relates to Lyonel Baratheons revolt (?). In this case the weddings of Correna and Cyrenna (who's son Jered was born 248 or 249) to Stevron and Walder may have been punishment for their involvement in Lyonel's uprising.

Not sure what the Bar prefix means either, at face value in English it could mean to "block" or "prevent". I don't think it is a coincidence that we see what is possibly the prefix in Baratheon, if Orys Baratheon was indeed the bastard brother of Aegon, perhaps the name suggests his mother was from house Bar Emmon, thus giving the prefix? A family relationship, even a bastard one, might in part explain why Bar Emmon sided with the Targaryens instead of the Durrandons

2. Agree that Rhaena’s daughter is a possibility, and she would be “second best” to unite Aegon III and Aegon IV lines. There “has to be” more to the Jena marriage then just being from a Stormland house. (I believe you and I discussed this elsewhere) 4. With the number of daughters Rhaena Hightower had, a Redwyne marriage is definitely possible, particularly given their proximity to each other. Seems a very reasonable explanation

1. The reason given for Genna Lannister and Emmon Frey is that her father was weak and easily swayed. Everyone, except maybe the Freys, appear to believe this a bad match 2. Jena Dondarrion is a strange choice on the surface, some speculate she is a cousin somehow, maybe a descendant of Rhaena Targaryen. No evidence at all, but my thought is she may be the daughter of Daena Targaryen. 3. Daemon Blackfyre was still a bastard when Aegon IV arranged the marriage to Rohanne of Tyrosh, is doesn't appear to have been a love / lust match. No idea on this one. 4. Daeron Targaryen and Olenna Redwyne: The Redwynes seem to be fairly powerful and prestigious; however I would think with betrothals to Baratheon, Tyrell and Tully that a North or Vale marriage would be more advantageous, but I could be wrong.

I agree, it seems there has to be something more to Jena Dondarrion's background to make her a good match for Baelor, more powerful houses exist in both the Reach and stormlands. The simplest explanation is that she has Targaryen blood, but from whom? I think some of the "blanks" may be a mixture of not being sure what he wants to do, as you say, and not wanting to give away a likely plot twist - the Frey family tree is almost fully complete, for example, with Stevron's oldest son Ryman's wife being a glaring exception that I think may come into play.

Agreed, on both counts, an infant would almost certainly have been passed over for Baelor, however some 10 years later might have been considered. My thought is if the hypothetical child existed (and I don’t think any did), it seems there would have been mention of a claim, the same way Daena’s rights were mentioned

Bottom line up front: 1. Yes, an official successor for Baelor should have been named. 2. No, I don't think Baelor necessarily wanted any of his sisters to take the throne after him. 3. I think that it is possible, given Baelor's questionable mental status Viserys may have tried to avoid having him name an heir; and it may have been for selfish reasons to become king himself. 4. I don't think Daeron I had any children; and I think if he did they would have been mentioned as possible candidates for succession, the same way Daena was. Again I think a clear heir SHOULD have been appointed given the trouble with succession only a generation before, I stated this earlier, and again I also stated the Viserys was the obvious choice for successor. I don't see how saying Baelor being insane is a cop - out (locking up your sisters so you aren't "tempted" isn't in any way normal behavior) and I'm not trying to state that he wished Daena to succeed him; if he did for some reason want her to be his successor, a very poor job was done of preparing her, and he certainly would have withdrawn any support after she was found to be with child. I DO think that with some of Baelor's odd behavior, Viserys and the rest of the small council may have not wanted him to officially appoint an heir, for fear that the chosen successor may have been completely inappropriate and perhaps without any Targaryen blood, thus potentially creating a crisis where none needed to occur (as you say, Baelor seems to have been fairly popular, at least in some circles, so even a completely terrible named heir may have received some support). I also believe that unless Baelor otherwise attempted to appoint someone else, if he remained childless (which seems certain, given his behaviors (I think we agree on this)), the throne would go to Viserys. Again from the Wiki: According to Archmaester Gyldayn, in the eyes of many, the council of 101 AC established an iron precedent on matters of succession: that the Iron Throne could not pass to a woman, or to a male descendant of a woman. (The above is referenced from The World of Ice and Fire) Also note that Aegon III succeeded Aegon II over Jaeheara, again supporting the idea that a male successor was preferred. As you say, this is not binding, however a declaration by the king of an heir may not be binding either, if it was then the Dance never would have occurred. And again, Viserys may have guided him away from naming an heir, be it for selfish reasons so that he could try and become king, or concerns over Baelor's sanity and the choices he might make if he officially appointed someone. Now, back to the original question: Is it definitely true that Daeron I had no issue?: Again, we cannot say for certain. However my original argument was that after Baelor's death, Daena was considered by some to be a candidate for the throne and the rightful heir - it seems reasonable (to me), that if Daeron I had legitimate offspring (that was still living), they would likely have been mentioned as potential candidates for the IT. That they already had been passed over might not have mattered - Rhaenys Targaryen was considered a viable candidate at the Council of 101, as were her two children, in spite of her being passed over previously. Lack of evidence is in no way proof, however if Daeron had a child (that was living at least), I think the mention of Daena's claim vs that of Viserys would have been another likely place to mention it. It is very early here, I apologize for any rambling. Do have a good day.

And my point is he isn't exactly mentally stable from the beginning of his reign. And the imprisonment of his sisters had to do with him controlling his lust and avoiding sin, there is nothing to indicate he thought they may or may not be fit to rule. Again, Maekar did not name an heir, and obviously should have. Nor did he apparently prepare anyone / have an heir apparent. Daena being queen has nothing to do with her claim to the throne, and she was set aside and did not serve / act as queen in any case. Rightly or wrongly after Viserys I being named heir it seems that only male heirs were considered (unless specifically named otherwise), so if no other action was taken the throne would likely go to Viserys II after Baelor. If Baelor named and prepared Aegon IV or Daeron II, I don't think there would have been much or any resistance. I kind of like Renly, but agree with that statement. If he was just a little smarter (and perhaps a little less arrogant) he probably could have taken the Iron Throne fairly easily. I think that the Estermonts are cousins from Lyonel Baratheon's daughter, but that is a totally separate issue. That is all true, but I assume most of those people aren't feudal monarchs nor heads/owners of international companies. Such people do have to name heirs, the very system they live in demands that. It is all a matter degree. If you own a house and 5 acres of land, you still have property to switch to someone else, etc. Even if you don't have that, decisions about things like life support, tube feedings, etc may need to be talked about as well. In my experience, about half of people will remain in denial and not want to talk about these things until they absolutely half to, and sometimes not even then. No, they are prominent because while most of the nobility of Westeros lost all their money with the collapse of the Rogare Bank, they did not. Furthermore, they founded their own Bank, putting them in a position to either be very helpful or a big pain in the ass, depending on how they felt about various other families. The ones who did the squandering were gone by then. Sam Tarly was in change and she knew what she was doing. Agreed. They Hightowers took a big hit after the Dance, but they were probably the de facto rulers / power in the Reach both before and after the Dance, even without Otto and Alicent. They kept their fortune after the collapse of the Rogare bank, and then established the Bank of Oldtown. They made peace / friends with Alyn Velaryon. They seem to have done well at holding on to their power in spite of being hurt by events of the Dance. While they were Lord Paramount, I believe the Tyrell's strength is relatively recently recent, occurring after the failed Peake uprising and the marriage to the Redwynes.

We may have to agree to disagree. Again, Baelor SHOULD have named an heir, but this is a man who locked all three of his sisters away (near the beginning of his reign) so that he and other men wouldn't be tempted by them, a more rational / practical king would never had done such a thing, and would have made marriage alliances to strengthen the Iron Throne. And yes, Renly had yet to take the throne, however he was marching off to war, the idea that he was in no danger of being killed would have been foolish. Additionally, he still needs to be concerned with the stormlands and Storm's End. While it may be that he has no other kin with Baratheon blood, we have no proof of that - it is plausible that Lyonel Baratheon's daughter wed and had children, possibly second cousins to Renly. Now if Renly is unsuccessful there is no guarantee that his appointed heir to Storm's End will get it, but it is worth the effort. It could also have been a bargaining chip as he was building alliances / support for his bid for the throne. Edmure Tully is at war as well, and while he is only newly a lord before the Red Wedding, it is fairly obvious early on that Lord Hoster Tully is dying. Yes, Caitlin would be heir presumptive, and Rob would then inherit from her, however Rob is now King as well as Lord of Winterfell, Bran and Rickon are allegedly dead and Sansa and Arya allegedly prisoners of the Joffrey Baratheon - there should be some of the same concerns about Riverrun as there are about Robb's heir and preventing the Lannisters from seizing it through Sansa. And if it is alright for Edmure not to name an heir because Caitlin is heir presumptive, why is it any different for Baelor when Viserys would be heir presumptive by convention at that time? I work in hospital medicine, people put off discussions about death / dying all of the time, some are very religious, some not. But believe me, some people will just not talk about it or make necessary decisions even when death is right in front of them.