The Logic Chain of Theories

[Hugorfonics]

1 hour ago, SaffronLady said:

He is clinically insane - his own imprisonment and son conspiring against him was enough.

Who doesnt? Theon and Ashas uncle for example is in self imprisonment and has his sister conspiring against him.

Also what clinic, Robert Baratheons propaganda? Look, I do think Aerys combated his mental health but I think the same of Robert for instance. And Stannis, and Dany, Euron, Joff, Viserys and ya know, Moonboy for all I know. And with Joff we see the levels to the progression of his madness likewise Dany looked at the "man who had once been her brother," the madness like Jaime says in Aerys, its due to the poisoning of Varys. It's also a bit peculiar that Jaime doesn't mouth off on Aerys' insanity but instead was simply taken back by his cruelty.  

I don't think it's as simple as incestuous dumbasses fucked themselves incompetent, I think it's more that any absolutist regime will undoubtedly breed someone detached from reality where their tyranny will surely lead to carnage and travesty. But on the flip side we got Dany who's also bred with this same detached reality and of course to brother and sister and even throws up some red flags but while carnage and travesty looks possible for her it's surely not guaranteed as she's not a cruel person. 

1 hour ago, SaffronLady said:

We don't need Stannis to actually be the hero who saves the world. He is what I term a "myth-actor", like the character of Hugor - he is a stand-in for a legend to be refreshed in living history, like the tellings of Hugor as a stand-in for Night's King.

Wait are you saying that like these mythoses blend into each other and like most of history is bullshit or stolen? Cuz if so, I agree!

1 hour ago, SaffronLady said:

What we could currently work with is Azor Ahai was the one who came to Westeros, killed the 'King of Summer' with a cold shadow, and created an army of cold with his army of summer.

I don't see how you got that but that's not what Reborn does, right? The next ones supposed to stop the others?

 

Ok my theories on theories, first is Azor Ahai reborn is team human. Good guy and bad guy are just words after all, so not only do I think good guys like Dany, Jon and Tyrion and Stannis (if you consider them good guys) are almost inevitably Azor Ahai but so are baddies like Stannis and Tyrion (if you'd like to put them here) and Victarion and Ramsay. I think Azor Ahai is not going to be like a Video Game achievement with a notification in the corner but stay ambiguous but with the prophecy check list in place and the eventual triumph of humanity due to like, if not holding hands then some type of cooperation that'll save humanity, I think lots of Azor Ahais are out there.

So obviously I don't belive in one hero or really the matter of bloodlines tbh.

 

I do think that's the meat of the story but the moover I think is Sansa, she's the reason the world spins and the real story or good story moves after all. 

So I do think the pie was poisoned not the wine, and it was due to Tyrion sending Petyr and Olenna conspiring against his life with plots to kidnap Sansa (individually of course, plan was Highgarden but LF betrayed her.)

(I'm not a believer in gods or fate but I like to think that something upstairs saw Tyrions pie in front of him and summoned a lesser being to take the hit and allowed the hero (an azor ahai) to continue his path. They chose the king.)

So I also think that since Sansa moves mountains without trying she eventually will soon try and the 7 kingdoms, or at least the interesting parts, will fall to her knees.

[Hippocras]

1 hour ago, SaffronLady said:

Wouldn't the Blackfyres want allies with strong power but weak claims, since they have the reverse?

Their own firm belief was that they were the ones with the best claim and the ones who held the throne were imposters.

Daemon Blackfyre's mother was Daena, eldest daughter of Aegon III. Her right was arguably stronger than Viserys II's ever was, but even if you ignore female inheritance, Daemon's father was Aegon IV, and some believe he was Aegon's eldest son:

Aegon IV claimed that Daeron II was not his son, and that may even have been true. Naerys's difficulties with childbirth were not yet known in 153 and Aemon's affection for her was clear. Rumour or truth, for those who believed it, that would mean that Daemon Blackfyre was Aegon IV's eldest highborn son, and a legitimate heir from 184 onward.

Daemon Blackfyre married Rohanne of Tyrosh, who I suspect may have been Daena's daughter and Daemon's half-sister. I believe Daena was sent into exhile by marriage to Tyrosh immediately after Daemon's birth to prevent her causing more complications and scandals with then-prince Aegon, and that this was the reason why Aegon chose Rohanne as a match for his favorite son.

The Blackfyre line had arguably the strongest claim to the throne therefore, by their logic, and they were able to collect powerful allies who believed that as well. But they could only continue to bring in powerful allies by embracing and absorbing other branches that felt snubbed or overlooked by the Iron Throne. The Targaryens simply could not afford to give the Blackfyres the gift of stronger allies than they had themselves, and the Blackfyres needed to continually strengthen their claim with later generation marriages.

Edited December 19, 2023 by Hippocras

[SaffronLady]

24 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Theon and Ashas uncle for example is in self imprisonment and has his sister conspiring against him.

I'd say Rodrik Harlaw has a much better mental health than Aerys the Mad. His preferred entertainment is reading, not watching people burn to death, screaming.

26 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

I think it's more that any absolutist regime will undoubtedly breed someone detached from reality where their tyranny will surely lead to carnage and travesty.

Aerys being totally insane is more reflected in how he could act on his tyranny instead of his courtiers at least being able to drive his travesties into a relatively harmless expression, such as Aegon the Unworthy.

I'm sure Robert would keep shitting on Aerys, but he doesn't need to do that for the realm to believe Aerys is mad.

29 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

saying that like these mythoses blend into each other

I said only this much.

29 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

I don't see how you got that but that's not what Reborn does, right?

I didn't, this is what @LmL got.

15 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

But they could only continue to bring in powerful allies by embracing and absorbing other branches that felt snubbed or overlooked by the Iron Throne.

I'm not seeing the cause and effect here...

[Hippocras]

Just now, SaffronLady said:

I'm not seeing the cause and effect here...

I guess, put differently, as time passed even those who saw Daemon as Aegon's legitimate heir would not continue to see Blackfyres as rightful Kings without injections of new blood that further confirmed their lineage. And the Targaryens needed to counter that by tending to their own ties and the strength of their own lineage. Meanwhile, the more families who could boast Targaryen ancestry, then the more families there were who might (and did) find excuses to rebel to prop up their own claims.

[Hugorfonics]

2 hours ago, SaffronLady said:

I'd say Rodrik Harlaw has a much better mental health than Aerys the Mad. His preferred entertainment is reading, not watching people burn to death, screaming.

Then there's Stannis who likes to do both.  My issue with labeling Aerys is mad is the same I have with labeling Victarion stupid. Like it kinda fits, but these labels fit nearly everybody. For all the hate the Dothraki get, Westerosi are also mad stupid. 

2 hours ago, SaffronLady said:

Aerys being totally insane is more reflected in how he could act on his tyranny instead of his courtiers at least being able to drive his travesties into a relatively harmless expression, such as Aegon the Unworthy.

I agree that like ordering the hit of Ned and Robert when it's only sure to flame the fires of Arryn and Tully was so politically incompetent it could be called insane, but this is also almost exactly how I look at Robert's hit on Dany. Then on the flip side, executing both Starks or banishing Griff may seem like perhaps the inncorect politically asutue move but it does have its own benefits as well and were in fact I think made by a rational person. 

2 hours ago, SaffronLady said:

I'm sure Robert would keep shitting on Aerys, but he doesn't need to do that for the realm to believe Aerys is mad.

Yes because Robert told them too already,  it's like when Brienne was talking about her presumably bedtime stories of Robert riding to save the realm and Jaimes like what kinda fuckin za are you smoking? For instance it's the same reason the realm is convinced Rheagar was an abducting rapist who harassed Lyanna for lols, it's probably not true, or perhaps greatly exaggerated. 

[chrisdaw]

In response to the original post I believe (well GRRM has basically said this with different wording) GRRM has a tendency to create hard rules to his magic, but then sees this in part as a flaw in his writing. It's magic, not science, it's not supposed to be entirely consistent or require complete explanation.

I think the manifestation of this is going to be magical rules that appear complete and consistent, but then have exceptions. For example bloodlines will matter when it comes to riding dragons, almost always, but then someone like Nettles may not be of any dragon blood and have achieved dragon riding by simply feeding and allowing the dragon to become familiar with her.

[SaffronLady]

6 hours ago, Hippocras said:

I guess, put differently, as time passed even those who saw Daemon as Aegon's legitimate heir would not continue to see Blackfyres as rightful Kings without injections of new blood that further confirmed their lineage. And the Targaryens needed to counter that by tending to their own ties and the strength of their own lineage. Meanwhile, the more families who could boast Targaryen ancestry, then the more families there were who might (and did) find excuses to rebel to prop up their own claims.

I see. This is a particular line of thought I don't follow and contextualize in the same way.

4 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

these labels fit nearly everybody.

In the case of "burning people alive = sign of madness", there is only one king and one claimant, tho, not everybody.

4 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Robert's hit on Dany.

Dany may have some influence over the horselords but it's a far cry from Stark and Baratheon power at the end of Aerys' reign to make the situations comparable. 

4 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

executing both Starks

...Let's just say 'executing' is not the same thing as 'use of cruel and unusual punishment'.

[Hugorfonics]

37 minutes ago, SaffronLady said:

In the case of "burning people alive = sign of madness", there is only one king and one claimant, tho, not everybody.

Stannis?

Like I agree this probabaly gotta be one of the worst ways of going out, but loads of historical people took the Aerys and Stannis approach and burned folk alive and its heinous and evil and just all around grimey, but I think insanity is a misdiagnosis. 

Imo the only character I'd truly refer to as mad is Patchface, (and more and more so Cersei, but not there yet.  Who clearly does have a cruel streak while patchface seems chill)

43 minutes ago, SaffronLady said:

Dany may have some influence over the horselords but it's a far cry from Stark and Baratheon power at the end of Aerys' reign to make the situations comparable.

How's it not comparable? An innocent child who's minding their own business was thrust into the game when their guardians didn't take attempted murder lightly. 

Obviously we know what happens with Drogo but Dany is now game which serves the same purpose, civil war brought to you by the mad state. 

49 minutes ago, SaffronLady said:

...Let's just say 'executing' is not the same thing as 'use of cruel and unusual punishment'.

Would it have been better to shoot em up like Walder did Robb, or simply cut off his head like Ned? Probably,  but only for a couple more minutes. 

But the fact remains is Aerys would only be a cruel and unusual king if he didn't preside over westeros. We see things like Cerseis walk of shame or like the Karstark soldiers put into crow cages, everything Theons been through, I mean take one decision made by judge Randyll and convince me it wasn't cruel or unusual.

[SaffronLady]

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

if he didn't preside over westeros.

I'm going to leave this topic at "many in Westeros are more or less insane, but even they consider Aerys mad".

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

How's it not comparable?

The relative power of the offended party.

[Hugorfonics]

50 minutes ago, SaffronLady said:

I'm going to leave this topic at "many in Westeros are more or less insane, but even they consider Aerys mad".

I think it'd be more correct to say cruel then mad. For instance Lysa and Viserys in their last moments were rambling nonsense, very patchface like behavior while Aerys was ordering around the last defenses of his kingdom and of course planning on blowing up his crib so he can be reborn as godzilla which like,  is fucking bonkers except that Dany pulled a similar scheme which turned out to be successful. 

56 minutes ago, SaffronLady said:

The relative power of the offended party

I don't feel like arguing the amount of arrows vs Ser Useless' cabbage patch amount of smallfolks, but Robert and his council feared a dothraki invasion and felt like this heinous order would prevent that, I mean Eddard made them feel like real pieces of shit but they stayed true which implies the level of severity they thought probable. There's also Jorah who knows both styles well and seems to favor the dothraki in a battle.

[Hippocras]

6 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

 but then someone like Nettles may not be of any dragon blood and have achieved dragon riding by simply feeding and allowing the dragon to become familiar with her.

I think people make too much of Nettles, personally. She answered a call for dragonseeds and there is actually no real reason to believe she was not one.

If there is anything to take from the story IMO it is that Sheepstealer was a wild dragon  and so not actually a Targaryen one. That might be relevant to Nettles's lineage  as it opens the possibility that her drop of dragon blood was not Targaryen blood but came from a completely different dragonlord origin. If dragons have particular blood bonds, that part might matter and could explain why Sheepstealer was never interested in or tamed by any Targaryen.

[Hippocras]

5 hours ago, SaffronLady said:

I see. This is a particular line of thought I don't follow and contextualize in the same way.

That's fine. That is what this thread is for. What premise lies behind your reading of this part of history?

[SaffronLady]

5 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Robert and his council feared a

Pro-Targ uprising if a Targ claimant shows up with an army.

5 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

I think it'd be more correct to say cruel then mad.

I think the two are not mutually exclusive.

4 hours ago, Hippocras said:

That's fine. That is what this thread is for. What premise lies behind your reading of this part of history?

I think people with a strong claim to a throne would prioritize allying with sidelined but powerful factions. Even if these factions happen to have royal side branches among its members, it would be a bonus and not a primary reason the claimant(s) is/are making the alliances.

[Hugorfonics]

2 hours ago, SaffronLady said:

Pro-Targ uprising if a Targ claimant shows up with an army.

Ok, so then it's comparable in that regard. 

2 hours ago, SaffronLady said:

I think the two are not mutually exclusive.

I don't think Aerys was like Viserys or Lysa and to write off his cruelty as madness is not only feeding into Robert's propaganda, another curel and mentally unstable King but is an affront to actual mental illness that's seen in the likes of Dany and Tyrion. 

[Hippocras]

1 minute ago, Hugorfonics said:

Ok, so then it's comparable in that regard. 

I don't think Aerys was like Viserys or Lysa and to write off his cruelty as madness is not only feeding into Robert's propaganda, another curel and mentally unstable King but is an affront to actual mental illness that's seen in the likes of Dany and Tyrion. 

So, growing your fingernails so long they drag on the floor and refusing to let anyone cut your hair is perfectly normal and not mentally ill behaviour? Sure.

[Hugorfonics]

4 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

So, growing your fingernails so long they drag on the floor and refusing to let anyone cut your hair is perfectly normal and not mentally ill behaviour? Sure.

Unhygienic? Call a shrink!

Robert Arryns mother and father were murdered which rightly freaks him out, is it paranoia that keep the barber away? Of course! Is this a sign of madness or, like, good planning?

I think it's important to point out that Aerys was killed by his bodyguards so all that paranoia that he and Lord Robert shared, should have been more.

[SaffronLady]

10 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Ok, so then it's comparable in that regard. 

Pre-Rebellion Ned and Robert had powerful families at their back despite them being little more than boys - enough of both of their fathers' households survived to actually run their little kingdoms for them while they were in the Vale.

Dany does not have any of that. No sphere of influence in Westeros. She has at best a chance to call upon further support if she reaches Westeros with an army. She even has no connexions on Westeros until Doran decides to reach out since Viserys is dead.

That Robert could feel threatened by what he knew is more him being paranoid than Dany actually being in his position sixteen years ago.

5 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Aerys was killed by his bodyguards

It was Jaime alone though. 

17 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

feeding into Robert's propaganda

Robert's propaganda was basically about broadcasting what Aerys did to everybody. He doesn't even need to blow up the details too much...

[Hippocras]

6 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Unhygienic? Call a shrink!

When it gets that far, yes. Sorry, but... 

Aerys demanded that all of the citizens of KL be burned, thinking that he himself would survive the fire. That is why he was killed. So.... yeah. You do not win this debate and I don't see the point of anyone getting dragged in. Aerys was mentally ill. Propaganda has nothing to do with it.

[Hugorfonics]

18 minutes ago, SaffronLady said:

Pre-Rebellion Ned and Robert had powerful families at their back despite them being little more than boys - enough of both of their fathers' households survived to actually run their little kingdoms for them while they were in the Vale.

They had Arryn and likely Stark, Baratheons land was defended by child Stannis who had qualms about the war. Tully on the other hand strongarmed Arryn into the war. 

At the start of the war, before Ned stopped at the Fingers during mustering stage, the war was favored in Aerys' direction. 

22 minutes ago, SaffronLady said:

Dany does not have any of that. No sphere of influence in Westeros. She has at best a chance to call upon further support if she reaches Westeros with an army. She even has no connexions on Westeros until Doran decides to reach out since Viserys is dead.

She does have connections, just doesn't know exactly who they are or if they exist. 

24 minutes ago, SaffronLady said:

That Robert could feel threatened by what he knew is more him being paranoid than Dany actually being in his position sixteen years ago.

It's not the same position, I just think it's comparable, even if it is the great lords on one side and like house Darry on the other. It's still civil war brought by the mad state. 

29 minutes ago, SaffronLady said:

It was Jaime alone though. 

Bodyguard lol

29 minutes ago, SaffronLady said:

Robert's propaganda was basically about broadcasting what Aerys did to everybody. He doesn't even need to blow up the details too much...

The thing is we don't really know because we weren't there. House Tyrell for instance plays 20 questions with Sansa because they were next to clueless regarding Joffs character. 

It's very surprising imo that Jaime doesn't reflect on Aerys' madness, as he was there. (Barri does but he also suffers from memory lapse which I find really interesting. Tywin as well, but he has his own agenda)

Do you disbelieve in the concept of Baratheon propoganda? Like, Rhegar the rapist schmuck, that's clearly not the case, right?

 

 

33 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

When it gets that far, yes. Sorry, but... 

Aerys demanded that all of the citizens of KL be burned, thinking that he himself would survive the fire. That is why he was killed. So.... yeah. You do not win this debate and I don't see the point of anyone getting dragged in. Aerys was mentally ill. Propaganda has nothing to do with it.

I said I think Aerys was mentally ill, but I also say that about many characters.  And yes Aerys was cruel but I'd also say that about many characters. 

Dany took a nap in a fire, now sure, that's nutty. But it also worked. Now, that's crazy!

[SaffronLady]

49 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

It's not the same position, I just think it's comparable

Ok. I don't think so.

49 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

It's still civil war brought by the mad state. 

A rebellion fought for survival is the same as a claimant war in the works? I don't think so.

50 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

She does have connections, just doesn't know exactly who they are or if they exist. 

She gains connexions once she knows who they are and when they exist. Darry is just waiting for "Targaryen", they don't really have an idea who Targ.

51 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Do you disbelieve in the concept of Baratheon propoganda?

Facepalms

Look ... Aerys being mad does not exclude him from being cruel, or unhygenic, or insane. Robert may need to prop a bit more in Rhaegar's case, but Aerys doesn't need to be prop-ed into this image of a mad king. He is cruel, paranoid and insane, or to sum up he is mad ... I don't know what hill you are trying to die on going back to Robert's propaganda again and again. So you want to discuss how insane Aerys is, how well he fits the very subjective descriptor of "mad" with what unreliable info we have or what?