What If: Rhaella and Aery's line

[Hippocras]

I have seen this discussed in a few places, and while it is somewhat tinfoil, it is also compelling in that it would answer several outstanding questions.

The What if for this thread is, what if Rhaegar was not Aerys's son, and what if Aerys had a child but not with Rhaella. In this scenario, did their separate lines join anyway, fulfilling the woods witch prediction?

Rhaella's case comes first because it has the most clarity. Some people have speculated that Rhaegar might have been the son of Bonnifer Hasty, who we of course know was the love of her youth. Rhaella was only between 12 and 14 years old when Rhaegar was born, which is extremely young. So her romance with Hasty could not have much preceded that. The timing fits. The fact that she was married before the age of 16 in somewhat of a hurry does seem to leave the door open for the theory that she was in early pregnancy already, possibly without knowing it, when she married. The ultra pious and somewhat uptight Bonnifer Hasty does not seem like a prime candidate for taking a princess's virginity outside of marriage, but maybe he only became uptight and pious later. His purple sigil, and geography, suggests possible Targaryen descent via Elaena Penrose or other.

Aerys's case comes down to the fact that he was known to have had several mistresses in his youth and was promiscuous until he was 30 years old. He could therefore easily have fathered any number of bastards between the years 257 and 274. One or more of those bastards might easily have been passed off as a legitimate son or daughter in a different family. People have already made the case at various points for any or all of the Lannister siblings being fathered by Aerys. But many other possibilities exist. Let's consider some of them:

First and least likely is Elia Martell. Aerys would have been extremely young when he fathered her, if he did. It is really not very likely at all. But who knows, maybe Aerys found the much older princess of Dorne to be a sexy and exotic tutor in imtimacy. At least we know she was in the right place at the right time as one of the ladies in waiting for Rhaella.

Next, Ashara Dayne. We do not know if Ashara's mother ever served in King's Landing. But if the Princess of Dorne was there, she might have been as well. Ashara was born somewhere between 260 and 269, and has purple eyes suggesting reasonably recent Targaryen ancestry (independent of Aerys). A reason this scenario is compelling is that it could provide an alternate explanation for how and why Ashara was "dishonoured" at Harrenhal. Aerys could, for example, have questioned the legitimacy of her birth publicly. That would certainly count as dishonouring. Since any of the Lannister siblings are also possibly concealed bastards of Aerys, there would be a certain amount of symmetry between Ashara being humiliated and Jaime being sworn into the Kingsguard (and so denied his inheritance) at the same tournament.

A more complete list of possibilities can only be made once we have a better sense of who served as a lady in waiting for Rhaella or was otherwise present in KL during that time. But this set of possibilities is enough to begin considering the politics and implications.

First, Tywin felt certain that Aerys would choose Cersei as a bride for Rhaegar. If we consider that she might be Aerys's daughter, and that both Aerys and Tywin might have known that, then it casts a whole different light on what it meant that Elia was chosen instead. Next, if we consider that it is unlikely that Elia was Aerys's daughter because he would only have been 12 or 13 years old when he fathered her if that was the case, then we need to consider that Aerys deliberately chose a bride for Rhaegar who was NOT from his line. Which means not only that he might have suspected that Rhaegar was not his son, but also that he was actively trying to prevent Rhaegar having children with a daughter of his own line.

What we do know is that at some point Aerys became paranoid and convinced that Rhaegar was working against him. But it is not clear that Aerys loved ruling so much that he needed to cling to the throne and prevent the succession of his own son. Unless he thought that Rhaegar might not be his son. After all, he was obsessively protective of prince Viserys but seems to have shown none of that protectiveness towards Rhaegar.

 

So did Aerys believe the woods witch's prophesy? If so, did he believe, as Jaehaerys did, that to fulfill it a child of his own WITH Rhaella was necessary, while at the same time knowing or suspecting that Rhaegar was NOT his child with Rhaella?

[KingAerys_II]

What if I had wheels? I would be a bike. 

 

[Hippocras]

59 minutes ago, KingAerys_II said:

What if I had wheels? I would be a bike. 

 

Do you want to be a bike?

 

This question is worth considering as far as it can be taken, seriously. Because Dany being exactly who she thinks she is is only one possibility and there are a few small reasons to consider she may not be. So is there a way for her to not be who she thinks she is that still fits the prophesy? Yes. If her paternal grandmother was Rhaella and her maternal grandfather was Aerys.

Edited December 23, 2023 by Hippocras

[KingAerys_II]

Here is a simple explanation to you : Rhaegar and Daenerys are Rhaella and Aerys kids, Jon Snow is Azor Ahai, that's it.

 

[Hippocras]

2 hours ago, KingAerys_II said:

Here is a simple explanation to you : Rhaegar and Daenerys are Rhaella and Aerys kids, Jon Snow is Azor Ahai, that's it.

 

Sure. Noone said that is not possible. 

And if you don't want to discuss this topic you are welcome to f**k off. This thread is intended for those who do want to discuss it. Lemon gate fans for example.

Edited December 23, 2023 by Hippocras

[Gilbert Green]

21 hours ago, Hippocras said:

The What if for this thread is, what if Rhaegar was not Aerys's son, and what if Aerys had a child but not with Rhaella. In this scenario, did their separate lines join anyway, fulfilling the woods witch prediction?

That has long been my suspicion.  There is an ancient trope, from Greek legend to Macbeth, that when Kings and other important persons act on prophesy, they almost always get it wrong somehow.   GRRM references this ancient trope when he quotes Marwyn by way of Gorghan of Old Ghis, and his colorful metaphor about the treacherousness of prophesy.  Prophesy will bite you in the ass [or whereever], because it does not mean what you think.

Then there is the question of whether GRRM would really choose to write a story where the universe was saved by the forced marriage of a weeping teen girl.  Who knows, but I'm guessing not.  Somehow, someway, Jaehaerys got it wrong.

21 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Rhaella's case comes first because it has the most clarity. Some people have speculated that Rhaegar might have been the son of Bonnifer Hasty, who we of course know was the love of her youth. Rhaella was only between 12 and 14 years old when Rhaegar was born, which is extremely young. So her romance with Hasty could not have much preceded that. The timing fits. The fact that she was married before the age of 16 in somewhat of a hurry does seem to leave the door open for the theory that she was in early pregnancy already, possibly without knowing it, when she married.

I'm too lazy to redo the math now, but I think I once calculated that Rhaella could have been as old as 15 when Rhaegar was born; though likely still at least 14 when conceived.

Baristan also hints there once an exception to the rule that Rhaella was "always mindful of her duty"; and hints this somehow connects to the knight [presumably Bonifer] of her youth.  But if, despite her passion, Rhaella had remained chaste, I think this too would count as remaining "mindful of her duty".  So I think it is a reasonable conclusion that GRRM is hinting that something happened beyond "love pure and chaste from afar".

Also, what is the point of the clues GRRM is planting about Bonifer, if not this?  I am not a fan of the "words are wind" theory of textual interpretation.

21 hours ago, Hippocras said:

The ultra pious and somewhat uptight Bonifer Hasty does not seem like a prime candidate for taking a princess's virginity outside of marriage, but maybe he only became uptight and pious later.

He definitely became "most pious" later, according to the few clues we have.  Something happened to change him.  He was not "most pious" when he was a promising tournament knight in love with Rhaella.   The prious Bonifer was the Bonifer who declared jousting to be an empty vanity.  According to Jaime's clue Bonifer was changed by a defeat or a disgrace or a near brush with death [Summerhall?], and per Barristan's clue, it was "afterwards" that he became most pious; and was heard to say that only the Maiden could replace Rhaella in his heart.  And in his conversation with Jaime, he agrees with Jaime's septon that "all men are sinners", a category that presumably includes himself.

21 hours ago, Hippocras said:

 His purple sigil, and geography, suggests possible Targaryen descent via Elaena Penrose or other.

IMHO there is not much point to this twist if Bonifer turns out to be a secret Targaryen anyway.  I would think that such a twist would represent a partial rejection by GRRM of Targ blood purity doctrines.  Making Bonifer just another relative undercuts the irony.

If you must find significance in his sigil, maybe it is suggestive of Dayne heritage (white sword-blade against purple) or Dunk heritage (shooting star against purple).  Or maybe both at once.  Wasn't Tanselle Dornish?

21 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Aerys's case comes down to the fact that he was known to have had several mistresses in his youth and was promiscuous until he was 30 years old. He could therefore easily have fathered any number of bastards between the years 257 and 274. One or more of those bastards might easily have been passed off as a legitimate son or daughter in a different family. People have already made the case at various points for any or all of the Lannister siblings being fathered by Aerys. But many other possibilities exist. Let's consider some of them:
 

I regard Aerys' fetish for married noblewomen as a dangling plot thread meant to lead somewhere. 

21 hours ago, Hippocras said:

First and least likely is Elia Martell. Aerys would have been extremely young when he fathered her, if he did. It is really not very likely at all. But who knows, maybe Aerys found the much older princess of Dorne to be a sexy and exotic tutor in imtimacy. At least we know she was in the right place at the right time as one of the ladies in waiting for Rhaella.

Aerys' fetish for married noblewomen is maybe easier to explain if this was a formative sexual experience for him.

There's also the curious detail about Elia being born "a month early" after her mother returned from KL.  Was she really born a "month early"?  Or was she actually conceived in KL?

IIRC (and I am too laze to redo the calculations), I once calculated that Aerys could have been as old as 12 when this happened.  In F&B, GRRM provides an example of a Targaryen boy consumating a marriage at age 12, so he evidently does not regard this as impossible, however unlikely.  IIRC, Tyrion was once plotting to introduce Joffrey to a whorehouse at age 12.  I think 11 would be a stretch, but who am I to say that GRRM would not do that either.  If knights can be 8' tall, then fathers can be 10 or 11.

21 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Next, Ashara Dayne. We do not know if Ashara's mother ever served in King's Landing. But if the Princess of Dorne was there, she might have been as well. Ashara was born somewhere between 260 and 269, and has purple eyes suggesting reasonably recent Targaryen ancestry (independent of Aerys). A reason this scenario is compelling is that it could provide an alternate explanation for how and why Ashara was "dishonoured" at Harrenhal. Aerys could, for example, have questioned the legitimacy of her birth publicly. That would certainly count as dishonouring. Since any of the Lannister siblings are also possibly concealed bastards of Aerys, there would be a certain amount of symmetry between Ashara being humiliated and Jaime being sworn into the Kingsguard (and so denied his inheritance) at the same tournament.

Agree that Ashara is roughly the right age to have been born during Aerys' randy period.   So potentially a suspect for secret-child-of-Aerys.

I think if Aerys were the kind to boast about his by-blows, we would hear more talk about it.  It would be primarily her mother that was dishonored - which is not a great thing to boast about when he is the one to blame.

And for our present purposes (the Woods Witch prophesy), Ashara does not matter unless she unites the lines of Aerys and Rhaella.  Which (under the Bonifer hypothesis) she can only do by uniting with the son of Bonifer and Rhaella.  On that logic it would seem that she would matter as a potential partner of Rhaegar.   On that logic Rhaegar would have to directly "dishonor" her anyway. 

21 hours ago, Hippocras said:

A more complete list of possibilities can only be made once we have a better sense of who served as a lady in waiting for Rhaella or was otherwise present in KL during that time. But this set of possibilities is enough to begin considering the politics and implications.

IIRC, Rickard Stark was also in KL during Aerys' randy period.  And his wife was a Stark cousin.  So a child of Aerys and Lady Stark could have Stark features, without being a daughter or Rickard.

21 hours ago, Hippocras said:

First, Tywin felt certain that Aerys would choose Cersei as a bride for Rhaegar. If we consider that she might be Aerys's daughter, and that both Aerys and Tywin might have known that, then it casts a whole different light on what it meant that Elia was chosen instead. Next, if we consider that it is unlikely that Elia was Aerys's daughter because he would only have been 12 or 13 years old when he fathered her if that was the case, then we need to consider that Aerys deliberately chose a bride for Rhaegar who was NOT from his line. Which means not only that he might have suspected that Rhaegar was not his son, but also that he was actively trying to prevent Rhaegar having children with a daughter of his own line.

I think Rhaegar, and not Aerys, was the driving force behind the marriage to Elia.  Aerys probably gave his consent, but his "smells Dornish" line suggest, at the very least, a certain amount of reluctance.  Whether he suspected she was his daughter or not (perhaps not), he evidently otherwise had a low opinion of her ethnic heritage.

Edited December 23, 2023 by Gilbert Green

[Gilbert Green]

19 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

Sure. Noone said that is not possible. 

And if you don't want to discuss this topic you are welcome to f**k off. This thread is intended for those who do want to discuss it. Lemon gate fans for example.

No need for that.  He's allowed to disagree.  And if your guesses turn out to be correct (as I think some of them are) all the more glory for you.

[Gilbert Green]

Also, Rhaegar was by all accounts healthy and talented.  In short, he was probably not the product of two successive generations of full-sibling incest.  When Aerys suspects that his children by Rhaella are not his own, because sickly and/or deformed, that is an ironic clue.  Rhaegar is the one who is not his.

[Alester Florent]

5 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

Also, Rhaegar was by all accounts healthy and talented.  In short, he was probably not the product of two successive generations of full-sibling incest.  When Aerys suspects that his children by Rhaella are not his own, because sickly and/or deformed, that is an ironic clue.  Rhaegar is the one who is not his.

Viserys and Daemon were healthy and talented and they were the product of two successive generations of full-sibling incest. Aegon III and Viserys II were scarcely less inbred, and they were fine. It seems that incest doesn't affect Targaryens to the same extent we might expect IRL

[KingMaekarWasHere]

22 hours ago, Hippocras said:

I have seen this discussed in a few places, and while it is somewhat tinfoil, it is also compelling in that it would answer several outstanding questions.

The What if for this thread is, what if Rhaegar was not Aerys's son, and what if Aerys had a child but not with Rhaella. In this scenario, did their separate lines join anyway, fulfilling the woods witch prediction?

I love this line of thinking. I had my own theory years ago, which by some was called bonkers, that Rhaella and Bonifer's secret son was not Rhaegar but Davos Seaworth. I feel that if Aerys had any suspicion that Rhaegar was not his, he would have likely told Tywin that he wanted to engineer the boy's death. (And Tywin would have likely been obliging.) Maester Aemon was often in talks with Rhaegar via letters, and had Aemon suspected that Rhaegar was not a legitimate male-line Targ, he would have brought that point up as well! Aemon's final conclusion in Feast, that Dany was actually Azor Ahai seems more on point to me. Yes, she is a "girl." But she is also likely the only surviving descendant of Aerys and Rhaella that anyone would fight for and have faith in. Yes, Jon may be her nephew by blood. But because he looks so much like a Stark, is anyone really going to believe that he is Rhaegar's son? I know that the show makes it look like it would be easy for Jon to be acknowledged as Rhaegars via "Bran's visions" but the smallfolk would rather take Dany or Aegon than Jon. In the South of Westeros, Jon Snow might as well be a total stranger. (And Aegon is likely a Blackfyre or Brightflame! Mind you. But certainly looks more Targaryen than Jon.)  

[KingMaekarWasHere]

40 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

Viserys and Daemon were healthy and talented and they were the product of two successive generations of full-sibling incest. Aegon III and Viserys II were scarcely less inbred, and they were fine. It seems that incest doesn't affect Targaryens to the same extent we might expect IRL

Not to mention the fact that Aerys and Rhaella had Blackwood blood, and Dayne blood from Egg's mom. 

[Hippocras]

For clarity I need to explain directly that I do not think Azor Ahai is really a hero, and I do not think it is Jon.

I think AA is probably a champion of the Fire side of a meta-conflict, and that Jon exists between so not Fire OR Ice. He is a champion of moderation, not of extremes.

Because I think that, I also think AA reborn is probably Dany. However I consider it at least possible she is not who she thinks she is by birth. She could very easily be truly the daughter of Aerys and Rhaella. But she could also fit the scenario I described in the OP with a trail of hidden agendas and baby swaps in the aftermath of Robert’s Rebellion.

 

[KingAerys_II]

If Jon Snow is Azor Ahai, Rhaegar is Aerys and Rhaella son , the wood witch made the prophecy , Maggy the frog prophecy seems pretty accurate.

Daenerys is 100 percent Aerys and Rhaella daughter, the lemon gate has no sense , lemons can grow everywhere

[KingAerys_II]

The ability to hatch dragons is something related to dragonlords magic, Daenerys is the result of incest 

[KingAerys_II]

What if GRRM releases the book after waiting for 12 years? It would be awesome

Edited December 24, 2023 by KingAerys_II

[Alester Florent]

You know there's an edit button, right? You don't need to triple-post if you think of something else to say after five minutes.

[SaffronLady]

2 hours ago, Hippocras said:

a trail of hidden agendas and baby swaps

It would suggest the 'return of magic' started first in the subtle areas, like bloodline detection and of course, outright prophesy. Then Dany hatching dragons opened the way for/marks the full blossoming of magic across all fields.

Because ... it would be kinda impossible and meaningless to baby swap if you know neither who their parents and ancestors are, nor who they will grow up to become, right? Babies being babies, more mundane methods may not suffice.

[Gilbert Green]

4 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

Viserys and Daemon were healthy and talented and they were the product of two successive generations of full-sibling incest. Aegon III and Viserys II were scarcely less inbred, and they were fine. It seems that incest doesn't affect Targaryens to the same extent we might expect IRL

Viserys and Daemon were not hugely healthy and talented in the sense that Rhaegar was.   Viserys was fat and ineffectual and died young of tummy trouble.  Daemon and Viserys have a sort of Aenys/Maegor dichotomy, with one being rather weak, and the other being mad and evil.  Daemon was propped up by his dragon-bond, which lasted until his death (Viserys I lost his dragon early).  Rhaegar managed to be hugely healthy and talented, without a dragon to prop him up.

They also had different starting points.  For Viserys and Daemon, the two successive generations of full sibling incest started with the hugely healthy and talented and long-lived King Jaehaerys I and Queen Alysanne.  Alysanne was so healthy she bore 13 live children (most of them defective in some way).  It was two of the more healthy and talented of these that went on to have a mutual attraction (yes, instinct matters) and reproduce, resulting in Daemon and Visersys.  If Jaehaerys and Alysanne had had two and only two children, and these two had been forced to wed against their will, it is doubtful the line would have survived.

For Rhaegar, mad Viserys and his siblings, the two successive generations of full sibling incest started with Jaehaerys II, who died suddenly of shortness of breath at the age of 37; and his sister-wife, whose date of death is unknown, and who is not famous for much of anything.  She had 2 children, not 13.  Rhaella's string of miscarriages establish a pattern, and neither Rhaegar nor Dany fit that pattern (not even if they are in some sense mad, which they might be).  Dany at least has a dragon bond to explain her vitality; which seems to begin when she is gifted the dragon-eggs.   But Rhaegar is just the guy who does not fit.

The mom of Mad Viserys was known for a long string of stillbirths and miscarriages, which I mentioned as an ironic clue.  The mom of Viserys I was not known for such a string.

There are no hard and fast rules IRL either.  But Egg studied Targ history and concluded that sibling incest was a bad idea.  I think we can conclude from this that Targs are not immune to the rule that if you marry your full-sister, generation after generation, you eventually get to the point where successful reproduction is impossible.   That Viserys I's mom and dad had not quite reached this point yet, is beside the point.  Aerys and Rhaella's string of miscarriages and stillbirths and mad Viserys is a clue that THEY may have reached this point. 

Edited December 23, 2023 by Gilbert Green

[Lord Varys]

The theory that successive incest creates somehow 'worse' or 'lesser' Targaryens than some cousin or outside marriage is ludicrous.

First, those people practiced sibling incest as the ideal (and other close kin marriage if that was not possible) for centuries and millennia. They are all inbred, as are the descendants of Targaryen bastards or descendants of people who married into other families (Velaryons, Baratheons, etc.) The only difference there is that some branches of the family don't marry back into the main line and thus don't got more inbred. But adding the 1,234th sibling incest union since the founding of Valyria doesn't make the children of such union worse than the ones who only happen to have 1,233 incestuous ancestors.

Second, we see that the likes of Aegon the Unworthy, Daeron the Drunk, Aerion Brightflame, Aerys I, Rhaegel, Vaella the Simple, etc. suffer from issues that we would expect more inbred Targaryens to suffer from if the author wanted to send the message that sibling incest union among you most recent ancestors somehow ruins you. 

Vice versa, there are rather cool Targaryen children from incestuous unions like Jaehaerys I's elder sons, Aegon III and Viserys II, and both Daeron the Good and Daemon Blackfyre.

Another interesting take is that Olenna Tyrell even point blank says that the Baratheons suck because of their Targaryen blood. That blood is rather diluted, as it is in the Valyrian beauty Daenaera Velaryon. The point of the story clearly is that looks and degree of inbreeding aren't that a relevant factor for inheriting Targaryen traits - but simply the fact that you are a descendant from the dragon family tree.

[Gilbert Green]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

The theory that successive incest creates somehow 'worse' or 'lesser' Targaryens than some cousin or outside marriage is ludicrous.

Nothing ludicrous about it.  Incest works in Westeros more-or-less as it does in the real world.   The only special quality the Targs have is a dragon-bond that props them up when they might otherwise be feeble or dying, much as Bran was saved by his bond with Summer.

All your arguments could equally be used to prove that incest is never a problem in the real world either.  All you really prove by such arguments is that you have no idea what you are talking about.

When you say this idea is ludicrous, you are calling King Egg an idiot.  I don't think GRRM agrees with you.

Edited December 24, 2023 by Gilbert Green