Myrcella I...Queen for a Day???

[Gilbert Green]

11 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

Well, Arianne is super hot and brings Dorne with her, as well as being old enough to have kids right away. There is currently no other remotely comparable marriage offer on the table, or even obviously available. The only reason to turn it down is if he's holding out for Daenerys.

Young Griff already has Dorne.  Dorne is scrambling for allies because "war is already upon us".   Doran's wife Mellario is already with Young Griff (as Lemore).

Not saying they won't get married.  But they don't particularly need to.

[Hippocras]

11 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

Well, Arianne is super hot and brings Dorne with her, as well as being old enough to have kids right away. There is currently no other remotely comparable marriage offer on the table, or even obviously available. The only reason to turn it down is if he's holding out for Daenerys.

He is set on Dany though. And Dorne is looking to bring down Lannisters no matter what  so he would realistically have Dorne anyway, without a marriage.

Edited January 7 by Hippocras

[Lord Varys]

Guys, if Aegon already had Dorne we wouldn't get an Arianne subplot in her own chapters where she is sent to the Stormlands by her father to determine if Aegon is the real deal and/or if he is it worth it to support him.

Doran and Arianne have their own Daenerys plan involving Quentyn, and until they receive confirmation that this plan is not going to be realized - which will be only when/if word reaches Sunspear that Dany is dead/disappeared and/or that Quentyn is also dead. That should take quite some time.

Up until that point Dornish support might not be forthcoming or their commitment might be lukewarm at best.

More importantly, Arianne is rather annoyed in her own chapters that her little brother is about to be made a king consort. If she were to buy Aegon's story or at least pretend to buy it in communication with her father and her bannermen ... then this is likely going to cost Aegon.

She will demand his hand in exchange Dornish support, and if they won't agree then the Dornish armies won't march ... or will march to help the Tyrells crush the Golden Company.

It might be that they will only agree to a betrothal and only have a wedding after they have taken KL and the Iron Throne - and by then they might have received news about the failure of the Quentyn plan. But up until Quentyn's death is confirmed - and reports about Dany's marriage to Hizdahr and her disappearance/death have reached them - Dorne will also be prepared to only use this Aegon guy as a pawn to topple the Lannister, being prepared to stab the fake pretender in the back once Dany and Quentyn to show. Aegon is a great instrument to be used and eventually be discarded at this point.

And, honestly, I think there is small to no chance that Arianne is going to actually buy Aegon's story. If she supports him then because she likes him and what she might be able to accomplish through him, but not because she actually buys this guy is her first cousin.

[Hippocras]

I just think people are acting like Arianne has all the negotiating power when I really am not sure that is true. Aegon's clearly stated goal, and the whole reason he invaded the Stormlands, is to win DANY's hand. So everyone is waiting on word from Quentyn and word of Dany. Noone is rushing to get married, least of all Aegon.

[Gilbert Green]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Guys, if Aegon already had Dorne we wouldn't get an Arianne subplot in her own chapters where she is sent to the Stormlands by her father to determine if Aegon is the real deal and/or if he is it worth it to support him.

This assumes too much.  What Doran chooses to tell the once-traitorous Arianne is not necessarily all there is to know.  All we can really tell from these chapters is that Doran wants Arianne to report back to him. 

And as to the ultimate point of her POV chapters, that's for GRRM to know and us to find out.   And if GRRM is planning to surprise his readers in any way, her POV chapters may be more important for what she does not know than for what she knows.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Doran and Arianne have their own Daenerys plan involving Quentyn, and until they receive confirmation that this plan is not going to be realized - which will be only when/if word reaches Sunspear that Dany is dead/disappeared and/or that Quentyn is also dead. That should take quite some time.

Doran tells the Sand Snakes that, for reasons he can't explain with too many ears about, "war is already upon us".   He may not think he has the luxury of waiting too long for Dany; or for news of Dany.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And, honestly, I think there is small to no chance that Arianne is going to actually buy Aegon's story. If she supports him then because she likes him and what she might be able to accomplish through him, but not because she actually buys this guy is her first cousin.

I'm not so sure of that.  I anticipate that Arianne may notice a distinct family resemblance, that may tend to convince her that he is indeed her cousin.   That's not to say that I think YG is really Aegon.  But he might really be a Martell relative.

[Gilbert Green]

3 hours ago, Hippocras said:

I just think people are acting like Arianne has all the negotiating power when I really am not sure that is true. Aegon's clearly stated goal, and the whole reason he invaded the Stormlands, is to win DANY's hand. So everyone is waiting on word from Quentyn and word of Dany. Noone is rushing to get married, least of all Aegon.

Right.  Her task is basically to observe and report.  She has no more authority to speak on Doran's behalf than perhaps the bare minimum occasioned by time and distance, which prevent Doran from speaking directly on his own behalf. 

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

This assumes too much.  What Doran chooses to tell the once-traitorous Arianne is not necessarily all there is to know.  All we can really tell from these chapters is that Doran wants Arianne to report back to him.

I guess you didn't read the sample chapters? They confirm that Arianne Martell has been granted authority by her lord father, the Prince of Dorne, to decide what Dorne is going to do with this Aegon situation. She will send back ravens to the two armies in the passes, telling their generals to either stay out of the war or to attack. They even chose code phrases which do ensure that she can't be forced to write anything against her will as the words one would expect her to write if the armies where to attack will tell the generals to do exactly the opposite.

Doran Martell put himself out of the game and ceded authority to decide what Dorne should do to his daughter and heir. And he would only do that if he (1) trusted Arianne's judgment, and (2) felt the need to have a person he trusts to check out this Aegon chap. If he felt differently he could have just commanded his two armies to join Jon Connington at Griffin's Roost rather than sending his own daughter as an envoy to them. The armies have already been assembled, after all, and only need his word to attack.

We also know from George's own mouth that Varys/Illyrio have no clue about the Quentyn-Dany plan nor the original marriage contract between Viserys III and Arianne Martell.

Connington's and the Golden Company's expectation that Dorne will join Aegon is pretty naive. Doran Martell had his own secret plans and he and Arianne will only join team Aegon wholeheartedly if and when Arianne has reason to believe her brother and his supposed wife are not showing up.

Before that, Arianne might not commit herself - and if she does then not fully or with the intention to only use this Aegon guy as a tool to weaken Tommen's government so that Dany and Quentyn will have an easier time taking the throne. The time for them to forge a real and lasting alliance would only come when they both know/believe the Quentyn-Dany plan is fallen through.

Also, of course, Aegon might only yield and decide to actually marry Arianne after he and his people start to believe that Daenerys is actually dead or at least very unlikely to come to Westeros at all (that would be after reports about the Hizdahr wedding and/or her disappearance/alleged death reach Westeros).

2 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

Doran tells the Sand Snakes that, for reasons he can't explain with too many ears about, "war is already upon us".   He may not think he has the luxury of waiting too long for Dany; or for news of Dany.

That is an obvious reference to his plans with Dany and Quentyn.

2 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

I'm not so sure of that.  I anticipate that Arianne may notice a distinct family resemblance, that may tend to convince her that he is indeed her cousin.   That's not to say that I think YG is really Aegon.  But he might really be a Martell relative.

Arianne is not stupid and for the Martells this entire Aegon scheme must clearly be a joke. If it had been real then Connington and his allies should and would have included the Martells in their game. That they kept this secret from them is a strong hint that these people try to manipulate them into joining a shady war.

Once Arianne meets with Aegon and Jon she will have them at their knees begging for their help. They have to meet all her demands or there will be no help. If she doesn't send out the messages there won't be any Dornish support, and if they try to fool her then the Dornish troops might help Aegon at first, only to take him captive later to send his and Connington's head to King Tommen.

While Trystane Martell is yet betrothed to Princess Myrcella the Iron Throne and Sunspear are still close allies. If Arianne pretended to support the fake Targaryen pretender only for her army to kill him and thus neutralize the threat to King Tommen she would be the hero of the day.

Even if Arianne for some reason believed Aegon was the real deal ... her father and she made already another plan involving Quentyn and a Targaryen queen with actual dragons. Putting Aegon on the throne now would undermine their own plan, would complicate things once Dany and Quentyn show up with a large invasion force, so what we can expect is lukewarm support at best.

In fact, the likeliest scenario is that Arianne will be decide to sit back and wait how Aegon is going to deal with the Tyrell army. From the sample chapters we know that the fall of Storm's End to Aegon will cause the Tyrell army to march against the castle, and one look at the map shows that the distance between KL and Storm's End is much shorter than the distance between the Boneway (not to speak of the Prince's Pass) and Storm's End.

So even if Arianne would send a message to her armies to tell them to help Aegon to fight the Tyrells ... they would likely only arrive at Storm's End after the battle there was already fought. If Jon and Aegon actually find a way to beat a Tyrell army twice or thrice the size of her own army then she might actually be convinced that they have a really good chance at winning their war.

Also, of course, by that time credible reports about the Quentyn-Dany situation might have reached her, so such a decision would be easier. Arianne is not going to make a fast decision there as her father has taught her a number of valuable lessons recently ... and she herself has learned the hard way that bad planning and scheming can have dire consequences.

[Gilbert Green]

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I guess you didn't read the sample chapters?

No.  I read them.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I guess you didn't read the sample chapters? They confirm that Arianne Martell has been granted authority by her lord father, the Prince of Dorne, to decide what Dorne is going to do with this Aegon situation. She will send back ravens to the two armies in the passes, telling their generals to either stay out of the war or to attack. They even chose code phrases which do ensure that she can't be forced to write anything against her will as the words one would expect her to write if the armies where to attack will tell the generals to do exactly the opposite.

Doran Martell put himself out of the game and ceded authority to decide what Dorne should do to his daughter and heir.

When a leader asks field agents to send signals to each other, it does not mean he is stepping down as commander in chief.

Doran's armies will act on Arianne's signal if he gives them that conditional instruction.  Which he can countermand at any time he is able to reach them with a command.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

We also know from George's own mouth that Varys/Illyrio have no clue about the Quentyn-Dany plan nor the original marriage contract between Viserys III and Arianne Martell.

Maybe.  But I'm not sure what quote you are referring to.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is an obvious reference to his plans with Dany and Quentyn.

I find it hard to believe he counts those plans as a sure thing.  It is not as though he said that war is not yet upon us because I'm waiting for Quentyn and Dany.

More likely, me means that Myrcella is dead; and that means war with the Iron Throne; and he can't keep her death a secret forever using Rosamund.

[Lord Varys]

11 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

No.  I read them.

When a leader asks field agents to send signals to each other, it does not mean he is stepping down as commander in chief.

Doran's armies will act on Arianne's signal if he gives them that conditional instruction.  Which he can countermand at any time he is able to reach them with a command.

The point is that he doesn't want to countermand anything. That is why he gave Arianne the authority she has. She will decide if and how and with whom Dorne goes to war, not Doran Martell. He trusts her to make the right call.

If he wanted to make the final decision he would have not have given Arianne the code phrase and he would have told her to send a raven to Sunspear once she made up her mind on Aegon, so he, Doran, could make the final call. But that isn't the case.

11 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

Maybe.  But I'm not sure what quote you are referring to.

George has been asked if Varys/Illyrio knew about the marriage pact, and he said that they didn't know. That Doran has no clue about Aegon is also very obvious as Aegon and Quentyn would not have been rivals for Dany's hand if the men behind them had known about the plans of the other faction.

And neither Connington nor Varys/Illyrio would expect that there is a chance that Dorne would join them if they had known or suspected that Quentyn Martell went secretly to Meereen and might, right now, actually be married to Daenerys Targaryen.

11 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

I find it hard to believe he counts those plans as a sure thing.  It is not as though he said that war is not yet upon us because I'm waiting for Quentyn and Dany.

Doran and Arianne deliberately kept the Quentyn plan from the Sand Snakes ... but it is clear that the war will start once Dany and Quentyn arrive at the latest. It could also mean war if/when the powers in KL find out about what exactly happened to Myrcella and why. Of course, your notion that Myrcella is dead is nonsense, but once Myrcella is back home with Tommen and Cersei and the Tyrells she might tell the true story ... and that could definitely trigger a war between the Iron Throne and Dorne declared by King Tommen. It would have, back when Cersei was still running the government. Now the Tyrells might have other priorities.

The Sand Snakes, Doran, Arianne, etc. finding out the truth about Gregor Clegane's current state could also be the final straw to break the camel's back, but considering the time line Arianne might already be at Storm's End by that time, so this might be more fuel to the fire, but not necessarily something that has a direct effect on Dorne's decision to go to war (Nym and Tyene likely have no chance to directly contact Arianne at Storm's End since they don't even know she went to the Stormlands). However, it certainly could cause open violence or deadly schemes in KL.

It is also a stretch to assume that Lady Nym and Myrcella will definitely make it to KL. With the current time line it is not impossible that the Golden Company chanced on and captured their party on the way to KL while they were crossing the Stormlands. 

Doran's entire policy of postponing the war revolves around waiting for a time when the damage for Dorne and the suffering of the Dornish people can be kept to a minimum. He doesn't want to do shit like some Sand Snakes and Arianne planned, provoking the Iron Throne into invading Dorne. He wants to create a scenario where Dornishmen will fight outside Dorne to accomplish what he wants - revenge on the Lannisters and a restoration of a Targaryen monarch with a Martell consort at their side.

[Gilbert Green]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

The point is that he doesn't want to countermand anything.

Normally one does not countermand one's own orders as they are given.    But of course, one can do so later.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

That is why he gave Arianne the authority she has.

He asked her to send a single raven, with one of two code words.  Assuming he has told her the whole truth, then the armies may take certain actions, or inactions, based on the code-word sent.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

She will decide if and how and with whom Dorne goes to war, not Doran Martell.

With WHOM to go to war????  Depending on the code word sent, the army will either act immediately or continue to wait in the pass.   Awaiting further instructions.  From Doran, presumably.  Because Arianne's instructions do not extend beyond that single raven.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

He trusts her to make the right call.

Or maybe he just wants her to think that.  But she might not be the only one he has asked to send ravens.

But assuming he trusts her to send that one raven, it is just that one raven.  It does not mean he has stepped down and made her commander in chief.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If he wanted to make the final decision he would have not have given Arianne the code phrase and he would have told her to send a raven to Sunspear once she made up her mind on Aegon, so he, Doran, could make the final call. But that isn't the case.

The binary choice is one between acting quickly, and continuing to wait.

A raven directly from Arianne will reach them sooner than a round trip through Doran will.  Allowing them to act more quickly.

Granting some decision-making authority to subordinates, during wartime, in the interests of speed, efficiency, and flexibility of action, is simply a normal part of war.   It does not mean you are stepping down as commander in chielf.

 

[Lord Varys]

7 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

Normally one does not countermand one's own orders as they are given.    But of course, one can do so later.

We can just stop it here. If Dorne attacks because Arianne's message tells the generals to attack then she - and she alone - will start this war.

Doran Martell can't - and doesn't want to - stop that. And once fighting starts it will hard to stop.

The one scenario I could see is that Arianne pretends to join Aegon only to double cross and kill him and Connington as I laid out above. That is a possibility how she could yet end up in King Tommen's camp.

But even that is something she will have to decide.

Doran Martell himself is out of the game entirely. He handed Dorne's fate and future to Arianne, his heir and successor. He doesn't want to be the 'commander-in-chief'.

And of course Arianne is aware of the order Doran earlier gave to the generals of the armies. She would also know what castles/regions they are to attack and, of course, if Arianne were to want the Boneway (and the Prince's Pass's) army to help them at Storm's End she would also add that to her message(s) - or they would have been informed that this would be their goal when/before she set out to the Stormlands. Anything else would be strategic nonsense.

[Gilbert Green]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

We can just stop it here. If Dorne attacks because Arianne's message tells the generals to attack then she - and she alone - will start this war.

Sure.  She.  And she alone.  And the raven.  And Doran, whose instructions she is following.  And the General in the pass.  And all the General's men.  And when Obara massacres Ser Balon Swann and all his men, that too will be an act of war.  And when the Sand Snakes assassinate Tommen, that too will be an act of war.

I get what you're saying about her being a but-for cause of this General's attack.  But that does not make her Commander in Chief.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Doran Martell can't - and doesn't want to - stop that.

Doran is very nervous.  He wants to strike early and strike hard with maximum surprise.  But the invaders were supposed to bring dragons.  He has heard nothing, so far, about dragons.

Maybe when Arianne finds out how YG captured Storms End, she will be impressed enough to give the okay. 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And once fighting starts it will hard to stop.

True.  Which is why he is so nervous.  Should he strike now?  Or delay a little longer?  Until, for instance, someone actually shows up with dragons.

But none of this implies that Arianne is the new Commander in Chief.

She was sent to assess the STRENGTH of YG's invasion.  And if it has dragons, or is otherwise strong enough, she is to signal the army in the pass, who will act on that information.  As per Doran's instructions to them both.

Doran understands the need for speed.  He knows he cannot micromanage every battlefield decision from 1000 miles away.  That is why he has authorized his field agents to signal to each other and act on each other's signals.  It does not mean he is stepping down.  That's just silly.

 

Edited January 8 by Gilbert Green

[Alester Florent]

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

George has been asked if Varys/Illyrio knew about the marriage pact, and he said that they didn't know. That Doran has no clue about Aegon is also very obvious as Aegon and Quentyn would not have been rivals for Dany's hand if the men behind them had known about the plans of the other faction.

And neither Connington nor Varys/Illyrio would expect that there is a chance that Dorne would join them if they had known or suspected that Quentyn Martell went secretly to Meereen and might, right now, actually be married to Daenerys Targaryen.

What I am now wondering in retrospect is why Illyrio didn't make more of an effort to tip Dany off about Aegon when he sent her Barristan. Sure, he was probably hoping she would just come back west with Groleo and he could set things up then, but he didn't give her much of a reason to do it. If he'd said at that point that the Golden Company were standing by, say, she might have been more inclined to accept. I get why he didn't do that while Viserys was alive, or while Dany was "just" Khal Drogo's wife, but once she survived the Red Waste and turned up in the east with her dragons, he should surely have been making every effort to get her back to western Essos and integrate her with his primary plan.

Aegon and Dany should be natural allies, but the actual Targaryen loyalist factions have been operating in almost complete isolation from, and ignorance of, each other, which has created a conflict of interest. And the one person in a position to join the two causes, Illyrio, hasn't taken meaningful steps to do so despite apparently planning for it.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

Sure.  She.  And she alone.  And the raven.  And Doran, whose instructions she is following.  And the General in the pass.  And all the General's men.  And when Obara massacres Ser Balon Swann and all his men, that too will be an act of war.  And when the Sand Snakes assassinate Tommen, that too will be an act of war.

Sorry, now you are just making scenarios up. Sure enough, some could be seen as acts of war, but the Prince of Dorne could also just shrug and say what some bastard nieces of his did is not the will of Dorne. It still could cause King Tommen (or his government) to declare war on Dorne ... but good luck with that. They don't actually want that right now as they are surrounded and challenged by other enemies. They don't have the resources or manpower or money to invade Dorne - especially not while two Dornish armies are assembled in the two big passes in the Red Mountains.

You are also kind of acting childish by wanting to ignore that Doran has given Arianne authority to make the decision whether the two Dornish armies should start a war or not. That will be the moment when Tommen's government can't ignore the Dornish issue anymore, not when some bastards try or don't try to murder some people.

Not sure why you are obsessed with modernistic nonsense talk like 'commander-in-chief'. Such a title is never mentioned in this setting, and even if we were pretending that a king or ruling prince was a 'commander-in-chief' - which we don't actually know as there is obviously no clear military hierarchy in this feudal world - then that could only have practical consequences if the king or ruling prince was actually commanding the troops personally we talk about. Which Doran simply does not.

What he did, though, was hand the authority to decide whether the armies that were assembled in his name are going to start a war or not. Which puts all the real authority in Arianne's hands.

Nobody also said he was stepping down as Prince of Dorne - but he handed a crucial part of his authority and power as Prince of Dorne to his heir - the decision over war and peace. And he did that because he thinks his daughter is ready for that.

Nobody also said he couldn't take that back by way of, say, sending letters to his generals in the passes to ignore any letters coming from Arianne or by changing the code phrases without telling her. But that could, obviously, only work before Arianne does send her letters to the generals. And there is not the slightest indication that he is going to have second thoughts like that.

If he had wanted to control things he would have either gone to the Stormlands himself or he would have joined one of his armies personally or he would have not granted Arianne the authority to make the decision of war or peace. But he did what he did. And that puts all the crucial authority in Arianne's hands.

It is also not that unlikely that Doran might know or think his days are numbered. His gout is very bad already and continuously drinking strong wine makes even worse. He could still live for some years, to be sure, but he is prepared and willing to slowly (or now somewhat faster) hand over power to his heir and successor. That seems to have been part of the reason why he brought her into his plans earlier and it is clearly the reason why he sent her to the Stormlands.

To be sure - the loss of Oberyn would also be part of his reason there. His trusted brother and co-conspirator is gone and he is bound to a wheelchair and could not possibly go to the Stormlands himself. Arianne was the best choice there. But his decision to allow her to make the war-or-peace call shows that he trusts her more than he most likely would have trusted Oberyn in her stead.

3 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

What I am now wondering in retrospect is why Illyrio didn't make more of an effort to tip Dany off about Aegon when he sent her Barristan. Sure, he was probably hoping she would just come back west with Groleo and he could set things up then, but he didn't give her much of a reason to do it. If he'd said at that point that the Golden Company were standing by, say, she might have been more inclined to accept. I get why he didn't do that while Viserys was alive, or while Dany was "just" Khal Drogo's wife, but once she survived the Red Waste and turned up in the east with her dragons, he should surely have been making every effort to get her back to western Essos and integrate her with his primary plan.

Hard to say. We could also just ask why Illyrio didn't just send Aegon and Connington to Qarth to fetch Dany or why Barristan was not presented to Aegon before he went to Qarth so he could give her a good reason to come with her to Pentos.

The best in-universe answer for that kind of thing is likely the need for secrecy. Illyrio planned to have Dany to return to him unseen and in secret and have her to stay at a hidden place (with Aegon, perhaps) while her dragons grew large enough to mount a proper invasion.

There is also little reason in context why Dany shouldn't go straight to Illyrio. Groleo and Barristan went to Qarth with three ships and she actually agreed to go back to Pentos with them. It was only after Jorah intervened, feeding her stories about the Unsullied, that she decided to take the Astapor detour. And that only became the longer detour after she hatched a plan to acquire all the Unsullied, making her army to large to fit on the three ships. Had she just gotten a couple of hundred or a thousand to not show up like a beggar in Pentos she could have continued with the three ships.

Golden Company talk would have just confused everyone as they were the Blackfyre company once, and without the revelation about Aegon this would have just not made much sense. Especially since Viserys III apparently was ignorant about them, too.

3 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

Aegon and Dany should be natural allies, but the actual Targaryen loyalist factions have been operating in almost complete isolation from, and ignorance of, each other, which has created a conflict of interest. And the one person in a position to join the two causes, Illyrio, hasn't taken meaningful steps to do so despite apparently planning for it.

There are some hints that, behind the scenes, Varys did take steps to ensure that Dorne would join the Targaryens once they mounted their invasion. It seems clear that Varys fed Doran some information - either directly or through middle men - that he trusted, most notably the information about Cersei's plan to murder Trystane on the way back to KL. Cersei is no fool, she wouldn't have entrusted such knowledge to a large circle of people. Actually only Ser Balon Swann. But she may have told him in the White Sword Tower or the throne room or council chamber and not in the security (from little birds) of Maegor's Holdfast.

If Varys is Doran's source on this then he would only trust him if he had fed him credible information in the past.

It is also possible that Doran exchanged letters with Illyrio during the preparation of the Dothraki invasion plan. There might even have been closer interaction between Illyrio and Doran when the exiled Targaryens were younger as Viserys III surviving as long as he did from as young an age as he was when Willem Darry died is nothing short of a miracle. He and Dany must have been shielded by wealthy benefactors from the start, and Illyrio and Doran both certainly could have been among them.

The fact that a brother to the Archon of Tyrosh is in Pentos at the reception where Dany is presented to Drogo could indicate that Doran is following the Targaryens-in-exile more closely than it seems. We do know that Arianne was to meet Viserys in secret while a ward in Tyrosh, and that could have only worked if there influential people in the Free Cities Doran trusted to keep such things from Robert. Doran may have gotten a close report from the Archon's brother about Dany's wedding and Targaryen-Dothraki invasion plans.

But it is equally clear why Doran would have kept the marriage pact a really closely guarded secret. First because it was apparently made directly through Ser Willem Darry and Prince Oberyn while he was yet in Essos - that is, very shortly after the beginning of the exile, possibly before Oberyn even returned from his time in Essos where he was during the Rebellion - and second because it was a very dangerous thing to entrust to other people, even people who he knew or suspected had similar interests.

In general, though, Dorne joining a promising looking Targaryen restoration attempt is something that Varys/Illyrio can take as a given. Recent events ensured they would not stand with the Baratheon-Lannister regime. In that sense this is similar to them having good reasons to expect a succession war in the Baratheon camp due to the twincest and other friction among the former rebels. But, of course, it is clear that Doran is so good at keeping secrets that even Varys/Illyrio never suspected or expected him to send his son to Dany in secret to try to marry her. They might have figured out why Doran is reluctant to give Arianne permission to marry ... but if they did they also never suspected or knew that he was daring and sly enough to actually arrange a marriage contract involving Viserys' hand. Which also makes sense as Darry's early death prevented him from telling Viserys in time. We can almost see that one reason Viserys III agreed to marry his little sister to Drogo was that Illyrio told he should give up the idea to marry his sister and instead remain free to marry a powerful heiress from Westeros - Arianne Martell - to secure Dornish support.

Things only get complicated there if and when two Targaryen pretenders show up, and Dorne has to or already is firmly connected to one of them.

If Quentyn had been successful and if Arianne and Doran would learn about that - which they still actually could learn in time in-universe if Quentyn had been successful - then Aegon would already be lost and little more than a distraction. Dorne would never declare for him.

[Hippocras]

I have realized suddenly that of all the marriage outcomes in these scenarios, the one I actually think would be the most beneficial for all involved is for Arianne to marry Willas.

 

I know, not gonna happen. But… you know…. peace and love everyone.

[Gilbert Green]

14 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

What I am now wondering in retrospect is why Illyrio didn't make more of an effort to tip Dany off about Aegon when he sent her Barristan. Sure, he was probably hoping she would just come back west with Groleo and he could set things up then, but he didn't give her much of a reason to do it. If he'd said at that point that the Golden Company were standing by, say, she might have been more inclined to accept. I get why he didn't do that while Viserys was alive, or while Dany was "just" Khal Drogo's wife, but once she survived the Red Waste and turned up in the east with her dragons, he should surely have been making every effort to get her back to western Essos and integrate her with his primary plan.

Aegon and Dany should be natural allies, but the actual Targaryen loyalist factions have been operating in almost complete isolation from, and ignorance of, each other, which has created a conflict of interest. And the one person in a position to join the two causes, Illyrio, hasn't taken meaningful steps to do so despite apparently planning for it.

Until he chooses to reveal himself, Young Griff is a secret known only to a few.  You don't just tip people off about things like that.  Not unless you are sure they are on board.

Yes, Dany is a potential ally.  But she is also a potential enemy and rival claimant.

And, other than not prematurely spilling the beans, Illyrio did try to bring Dany on board.  He tried to bring her to Pentos.  An introduction to YG would have surely followed.   His latest plan was for YG to go to her and propose a marriage alliance or other alliance.  She would have been among the first people he would have revealed himself to.

[Gilbert Green]

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Sorry, now you are just making scenarios up.

Details don't matter.  Granting discretion to your agents in the field is a normal part of war, because you simply cannot micromanage things from 1000 miles away.  And Doran has other agents besides Arianne.

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

You are also kind of acting childish by wanting to ignore that Doran has given Arianne authority to make the decision whether the two Dornish armies should start a war or not.

I never ignored anything.  Arianne was asked to signal "dragon" or "war" to a nearby army, based on her assessment of Aegon's strength.  She was asked to send information.  And he represented, perhaps truthfully, that he had instructed his armies to act immediately on the signal "dragon".

The reason the army is not to wait for Doran's direct command is so he can potentially act more quickly.  Raven flies quicker when it flies direct.

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Not sure why you are obsessed with modernistic nonsense talk like 'commander-in-chief'.

I'm not.  What word or phrase would you prefer?  It does not matter.  My point would be the same.  Delegating to subordinates does not mean you are stepping down or relinquishing authority to command.

"be my eyes, my ears, my voice".  Doran is asking Arianne to be his agent.  He's still the principal.  Or, if you prefer, the Prince.

Edited January 9 by Gilbert Green

[Aebram]

On 1/8/2024 at 5:43 PM, Alester Florent said:

What I am now wondering in retrospect is why Illyrio didn't make more of an effort to tip Dany off about Aegon when he sent her Barristan.

By the time that we met Daenerys in the opening chapters of Game, Illyrio had already had the Young Griff plot underway for years, possibly a decade or more. It seems very possible that marrying her to Drogo was just a ploy to get her out of the picture, so that she wouldn't interfere with his original plan. Of course, that changed radically after he found out that she had hatched three dragons.

[Lord Varys]

10 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

Details don't matter.  Granting discretion to your agents in the field is a normal part of war, because you simply cannot micromanage things from 1000 miles away.  And Doran has other agents besides Arianne.

I never ignored anything.  Arianne was asked to signal "dragon" or "war" to a nearby army, based on her assessment of Aegon's strength.  She was asked to send information.  And he represented, perhaps truthfully, that he had instructed his armies to act immediately on the signal "dragon".

The reason the army is not to wait for Doran's direct command is so he can potentially act more quickly.  Raven flies quicker when it flies direct.

I'm not.  What word or phrase would you prefer?  It does not matter.  My point would be the same.  Delegating to subordinates does not mean you are stepping down or relinquishing authority to command.

"be my eyes, my ears, my voice".  Doran is asking Arianne to be his agent.  He's still the principal.  Or, if you prefer, the Prince.

If you make somebody your voice they are not 'a field agent'. They speak for you, and their words are your words, even if they say stuff you wouldn't have said.

That concept is very well-known in this world, in fact, with the office of Hand of the King. When the Hand speaks with the King's Voice he is, effectively, the king. His decrees, rulings, sentences are as binding as if the king himself had issued them. The king could eventually countermand them if and when he hears about them and doesn't agree ... but that would then be a new legal act, akin to the king changing his own mind on a matter he has ruled upon before.

It is also quite silly to even question that Arianne is the one making the decision there. She has been asked to check out Aegon and to instruct the armies afterwards. We can expect her to also write to her father because she loves him and wants to keep him up to date ... but she doesn't have to. Her job is to check out Aegon and then decide whether there will be war or not. It is only her call.

[Gilbert Green]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If you make somebody your voice they are not 'a field agent'. They speak for you, and their words are your words, even if they say stuff you wouldn't have said.

That concept is very well-known in this world, in fact, with the office of Hand of the King. When the Hand speaks with the King's Voice he is, effectively, the king.

Yes, the Hand of the King is also an agent of the king.  The only reason you would not count him as a "field agent", is because he remains at court and does not venture out into the field.

A person sent abroad to speak for you is often called an "ambassador".  And yes, your ambassadors are also your agents.  It is fair to say that Doran has asked Arianne to be his ambassador.   He also asked her to send a coded message on his behalf.   That's all we know for sure.  Everything else is theory.

How much he truly trusts her is another question.  I would not be surprised if he is just testing her.  I would not be surprised if he has other agents in that company, and some are tasked with keeping tabs on her.   Nor would it surprise me if he has another ambassador with Young Griff.  Such as Lemore?  But that too is only theory.

Is Feathers just a random raven minder?  Or is he also Doran's agent, working directly for Doran?  Dunno.  Feathers (or whoever) may be a backup agent sending backup messages.  And then there are the other members of the company.  Why did Doran choose them, specifically?

I am slightly skeptical of your eagerness to glorify Arianne's newfound Stockholm Syndrome induced Daddy Love, occasioned by her isolation and conditioning in the Tower.  I wonder if a few nights in the sack with a hot dude, and she will not be merrily conspiring against her Dear Old Daddy once again.   And Doran may anticipate this peril and guard against it.  I'm not saying I know one way or the other. 

My personal hunch is that I think Doran would be a fool to trust Arianne.  But of course, I also think that Arianne would be a fool to trust Doran.  Neither seem like particularly admirable people to me.

Edited January 10 by Gilbert Green