My insight on the Brightfyre theory

[The Vanguard]

My theory is built on the assumption that Illyrio is fAegon's father, and Serra is definitely a Targaryen descendant. It may or may not be the case, though it very probably is.

 

The Brightfyre theory holds that Illyrio is actually a Blackfyre descendant in the female line, and Serra is a descendant of Aerion Brightflame. My theory is the opposite; that Illyrio is a descendant of Aerion Brightflame, and Serra is a Blackfyre.

 

1) Illyrio as Maegor's son

Although Illyrio's age or birth date isn't given anywhere, it can be assumed that he is around 45 (which would make his birth date around 255 AC). Aerion's son, Maegor was born in 232 AC, the same year his father died. At the age of 23, Maegor could've fathered a child indeed. This leaves some questions unanswered, like "Why did Varys and Illyrio grow up in poverty?" etc. But this question is also unanswered in the classical Brightfyre theory and the ubiquitous Blackfyre theory. Well, whomever you would think as Illyrio's parents (Mopatis man + Blackfyre woman | Maegor Targaryen + a random woman) likely grew up in poverty as well. What happened to Maegor after Egg was chosen as the king is unknown, but he was likely exiled to, or voluntarily decided to go to Essos. In Essos (probably Lys or Pentos), Maegor probably lived a sellsword's or a cutthroat's life, and was likely not rich.

 

2) Serra as a Blackfyre

It is like a universal fact that Serra is, in some way, related to the Targaryens. No speculation is needed here.

 

3) Why would Illyrio, a trueborn Targaryen, help the Blackfyres?

This is a relatively plausible argument, but also quite answerable, even in the classical Brightfyre (Illyrio Blackfyre + Serra Brightflame) theory. Maegor probably (and expectedly) developed a hatred towards the Targaryens during his time in Essos. He also probably indoctrinated his child Illyrio (or Serra if you support the classical Brightfyre theory) with the same hatred. Thus, this led Illyrio to sympathize with the Blackfyres, and father a child with one of them.

 

Ironically, this would make fAegon's claim quite strong, as he descends from the eldest male line of Targaryens alive. In the classical Brightfyre theory, fAegon is a descendant of Aerion Brightflame through his mother, which would make his claim somewhat weaker. I am curious about your opinions regardless of which theory you support.

Edited March 15 by The Vanguard

[Daeron the Daring]

Welcome to the board! Nice to see new members writing long articles.

On 3/16/2024 at 12:31 AM, The Vanguard said:

My theory is built on the assumption that Illyrio is fAegon's father, and Serra is definitely a Targaryen descendant. It may or may not be the case, though it very probably is.

While it is always an itriguing quest to find an answer to the unraveled fate of the Targaryens unaccounted for, the scale of our speculation often outgrows the boundaries of probability. I myself like to engage in these discussions, but I also treat them under a different  mindset. 

As such, it's not really likely that George would set up secret identities and generations of bloodlines on such a scale. I find in unlikely that, say, Aerion Brightflame's bastard descendants of the possible ones of Maegor Targaryen carry any sort of relevancy in case they exist. 

On the long list of unlikely ideas, however, it's not a wild take to think Maegor Targaryen did have descendants that would fade into obscurity or never have been prominent. However, Maegor falls in line with a couple other Targaryens of the time who would have nothing noteworthy to be mentioned for, and their fate is largely up to speculation. Who did Aegon's sisters marry, or even Vaella 'the Simple'? However, these three were all women, trough the lense of a patriarchic feudal society they are significantly less important than Maegor Targaryen, the rightful king in accordance to primogeniture.

I'd rule out the possibility that Maegor had a childless marriage with Vaella, as she was his senior by 10 years. If he had children with any level of significance (children, who, say, didn't die in infancy), I guess we'd know of it, regardless of who he married. But it's not a wild take to think that he lived a bachelor's life up to age 26, when he died at Summerhall. If he had to leave the Seven Kingdoms for political reasons, I guess we'd be informed of it, since Egg's life and reign as well documented by the sources we got on him.

This ultimately comes down on how much George wants tor rationalise such speculations. I'm not sure if people tought Varys or Illyrio were secretly Targaryens/Blackfyres before Young Griff made his appearance, but we're left with big cliffhangers. If we knew there is something to look at, we could allow ourselves to make bolder assumptions.

[Hippocras]

Illyrio is no doubt connected to the Blackfyre/Band of Nine somehow  but I think the strongest case for descendant of Maegor is found in Darkstar. He even looks like Maegor (streak in hair, general Targ looks). And his supposed dangerousness is very likely because of identity politics, not simply his skill with a sword.

Edited March 19 by Hippocras

[John Suburbs]

My two cents:

Even if Illyrio is a Blackfyre, or not, his real target is the Iron Bank, not the Iron Throne. So the goal is actually to devolve Westeros back into seven independent kingdoms, destabilizing the bank's finances so he can orchestrate a panic that sends it into insolvency. Then Pentos emerges as the top merchant city on the Narrow Sea, with him making an even fatter pile dominating trade, including slaves -- with his partner, Littlefinger, controlling all the key ports on the Westerosi side.

[The Vanguard]

On 3/19/2024 at 5:29 PM, John Suburbs said:

My two cents:

Even if Illyrio is a Blackfyre, or not, his real target is the Iron Bank, not the Iron Throne. So the goal is actually to devolve Westeros back into seven independent kingdoms, destabilizing the bank's finances so he can orchestrate a panic that sends it into insolvency. Then Pentos emerges as the top merchant city on the Narrow Sea, with him making an even fatter pile dominating trade, including slaves -- with his partner, Littlefinger, controlling all the key ports on the Westerosi side.

That is a relatively plausible theory, “plausible” meaning “possible in another story or another fictional universe”. While it is an intriguing and realistic speculation, it doesn’t serve the poetic beauty of ASOIAF. “Two evil power-hungry men who are plotting to make themselves richer” doesn’t sound very ASOIAF-y to me.

[John Suburbs]

14 hours ago, The Vanguard said:

That is a relatively plausible theory, “plausible” meaning “possible in another story or another fictional universe”. While it is an intriguing and realistic speculation, it doesn’t serve the poetic beauty of ASOIAF. “Two evil power-hungry men who are plotting to make themselves richer” doesn’t sound very ASOIAF-y to me.

The characters in the book are not motivated by "poetic beauty" or being "ASIOAF-y." They are operating in their own self-interests. Pentos' chief rival is Braavos, not Westeros, and the way to destroy Braavos is to destroy the Iron Bank. Now, whether this scheme will actually work is another matter . . .

[Lord Browndodd]

On 3/15/2024 at 10:31 PM, The Vanguard said:

...

3) Why would Illyrio, a trueborn Targaryen, help the Blackfyres?

This is a relatively plausible argument, but also quite answerable, even in the classical Brightfyre (Illyrio Blackfyre + Serra Brightflame) theory. Maegor probably (and expectedly) developed a hatred towards the Targaryens during his time in Essos. He also probably indoctrinated his child Illyrio (or Serra if you support the classical Brightfyre theory) with the same hatred. Thus, this led Illyrio to sympathize with the Blackfyres, and father a child with one of them.

...

It's simpler than that - he gets himself an army (the Golden Company).