R + L = J the real Martin twist

[shadowbinding shoe]

I really don't get this plot Illyrio and Varys supposedly have concerning Aegon. If they want this mysterious bunny in a hat to claim the iron throne for them what did their scheming with Viserys and Deaneris accomplish? The army Khal Drogo promised was promised to Viserys, not to Varys, Illyrio or 'Aegon'. How would they put him on the throne if the number of supporters he currently have is zilch? Even if they made him a contender to the throne how will they convince anyone he is Aegon? Everybody in Westeros knows he was killed by Gregor Clegane. He might have purple eyebrows and platinium hair but so do countless Valyrian whores in the free cities.

The conversation between Illyrio and Varys that Arya overhears concerns Viserys and Dany and her horse lord, not a mysterious Aegon that is not ready yet. The reason why they are not ready yet is because Drogo wouldn't move or give Viseris any horsemen before Dany gives birth to his son. The war in Westeros seemed months ahead of schedule to them since it would take at least a year to move an army from the Dothraki plain to Westeros.

I don't see why any of this is necessary for Illyrio's plot (I think Varys' motives are deeper than Illyrio and he has other plans we don't know about). Viserys is weak. He is swayed by superficial appearances and has no clue how to run a country. He seems a good catspaw for Illyrio's plans.

[Mezeh]

I really don't get this plot Illyrio and Varys supposedly have concerning Aegon. If they want this mysterious bunny in a hat to claim the iron throne for them what did their scheming with Viserys and Deaneris accomplish? The army Khal Drogo promised was promised to Viserys, not to Varys, Illyrio or 'Aegon'.

The scheming with Viserys and Daenerys didn’t start until Dany’s marriage was brokered. Before that they were completely neglected and Viserys was allowed to attain a reputation of Beggar King. So the true goal of the scheming could be just to divert attention from the real plot. Actually Viserys was doing the job pretty well for all the years since no one took him as real threat.

How would they put him on the throne if the number of supporters he currently have is zilch? Even if they made him a contender to the throne how will they convince anyone he is Aegon? Everybody in Westeros knows he was killed by Gregor Clegane. He might have purple eyebrows and platinium hair but so do countless Valyrian whores in the free cities.

Everyone knows that Gregor killed the baby by smashing his head over wall thus making him completely unrecognizable. So it would be not too hard to believe that babies were switched and Gregor killed a wrong one. Proof? Appearance would work well enough and if they will find somebody to will confirm pretender identity the claim would be quite good. The proof may be still week but that is matter is what people would want to believe. Then the realm is in trouble and torn by civil war a son of Rhaegar that apparently left god memory would look attractive for smalfolk and some lords as well.

The conversation between Illyrio and Varys that Arya overhears concerns Viserys and Dany and her horse lord, not a mysterious Aegon that is not ready yet. The reason why they are not ready yet is because Drogo wouldn't move or give Viseris any horsemen before Dany gives birth to his son. The war in Westeros seemed months ahead of schedule to them since it would take at least a year to move an army from the Dothraki plain to Westeros.

Even with Drogo’s horsemen Viserys would not be able to conquer Westeros much less to rule it. And we don’t know if Varys and Illirio really wanted them to land in Westeros they talked only about “khal to bestir himselfâ€.

I don't see why any of this is necessary for Illyrio's plot (I think Varys' motives are deeper than Illyrio and he has other plans we don't know about). Viserys is weak. He is swayed by superficial appearances and has no clue how to run a country. He seems a good catspaw for Illyrio's plans.

Very bad actually. We would be not able to inspire loyalty and Westeros lords remember the Mad King to well to desire another one. Viserys was not only weak but also half mad and unpredictable that made him hard to manipulate. On the other side if Varys and Illirio raised pretender from childhood they would have much more influence over him.

[shadowbinding shoe]

The scheming with Viserys and Daenerys didn’t start until Dany’s marriage was brokered. Before that they were completely neglected and Viserys was allowed to attain a reputation of Beggar King. So the true goal of the scheming could be just to divert attention from the real plot. Actually Viserys was doing the job pretty well for all the years since no one took him as real threat.

They use Viserys as a diversion? From what? There's nothing there for anyone to see. Do you mean that a Dothraki invasion led by Drogo / Viserys would divert Westerosi from noticing this nonentity? Because being a nobody in the free cities didn't make Viserys anything more than a running joke among the Westerosi nobility. He would have to do something important to function as a diversion.

Anyway you still haven't answered the question of supporters. How will your 'Aegon' take the throne when all he has at his back are three fat old men? He could be as articulate as Baelor the blessed and Aemon the black-chained combined, he would still need some influencial nobles to support him and an army to give him strength.

Everyone knows that Gregor killed the baby by smashing his head over wall thus making him completely unrecognizable. So it would be not too hard to believe that babies were switched and Gregor killed a wrong one. Proof? Appearance would work well enough and if they will find somebody to will confirm pretender identity the claim would be quite good. The proof may be still week but that is matter is what people would want to believe. Then the realm is in trouble and torn by civil war a son of Rhaegar that apparently left god memory would look attractive for smalfolk and some lords as well.

Even with Drogo’s horsemen Viserys would not be able to conquer Westeros much less to rule it. And we don’t know if Varys and Illirio really wanted them to land in Westeros they talked only about “khal to bestir himselfâ€.

So there would be no proof beyond general appearance? The lords of the realm would want more than that before they give their support to this claimant. They are all tied up to other claimants on the field. Ones that have proof to their claims, not just pretty stories. Illyrio and Varys talked about the Khal, they didn't talk about your 'Aegon'.

Very bad actually. We would be not able to inspire loyalty and Westeros lords remember the Mad King to well to desire another one. Viserys was not only weak but also half mad and unpredictable that made him hard to manipulate. On the other side if Varys and Illirio raised pretender from childhood they would have much more influence over him.

I don't think Viserys was unpredictable. He seemed easy to manipulate by giving him the appearances of power and office (meaning boot licking, giving him pretty swords and crowns). being mad doesn't necessarily mean random actions and even if their hold on him started to slip eventually it would be long after he gave Illyrio his monetary prizes for his help.

Illyrio wouldn't want a good ruler to take the throne. Such a ruler would know he doesn't need one fat merchant of a greedy nature.

[Mezeh]

Diversion from real plan. Mind we have no proof or even indication that Varys and Illirio really planed or prepared Dothraki invasion. Maybe all they need was a threat of such an invasion no more.

Supporters? Aegon surely would have supporters. The Rhaegar’s name alone would drive people to him. Besides he will surely have Dorne behind him and any lord that would be upset by Lannister rule as well. There would be no lack of those.

Proof? Appearance plus confirmation let us say by the same Jon Connington would be more then enough. In real history some impostors had even less yet they gathered a lot of support when the present rule was corrupt and unpopular.

And Viserys surely was unpredictable and irrational by the times as well. After all it was what killed him. He took too much from his father and this was obvious even when he was still a child. And again like his father it only grew worth with age. Such a king is even more dangerous for his allies then for his enemies so given a choice no one would support him.

[Shewoman]

hijinx, the succession goes from king to eldest son to HIS eldest son and that son's male heirs. If that line fails, it goes to the dead king's next son and his heirs. Only after all the male heirs are used up do daughters inherit. It doesn't matter whether Rhaegar was ever crowned. After that it goes to the dead king's next eldest son and through his children (males and their heirs and then females and their heirs).

I don't think Jon is Aegon. As others have said, the descriptions differ--and Aegon was around a year older than Jon. That makes a biiiig difference in an infant's development!

[the silent speaker]

So it was extremely easy for him to warn Illirio and Mormont first.

Easy, yes. That doesn't mean he did it.

[SFDanny]

Sorry but Varys was in charge to make Robert’s order known in Free Cities. So it was extremely easy for him to warn Illirio and Mormont first. And Mormont clearly was instructed to prevent a possible assassination attempt. So the fact that Varys wanted Dany alive is obvious. The risk however remained and this point to importance of Dany to the plotters.

No, it is not obvious. There is an alternate scenario that is stated as the truth in the text. We know that (1) Robert ordered the hit on Daenerys, (2) Varys appears to have communicated the orders for the murder to take place - there is an assassination attempt and Varys was given the task of setting it up, (3) on his deathbed Robert rescinds the order and this is communicated to Varys by Ned - to which Varys responds it may be too late, (4) Varys sends a message to Ser Jorah to stop the assassination. If your view is correct this plainly outlined series of events has to be a smokescreen for Varys true intentions. What do you have that shows it is so?

Now, it is entirely possible your scenario is true, but it needs something to convince us of the fact. If you can show, for instance, that the message to Mormont alerting him of the assassination attempt could only have been sent prior to Ned's order, then you would have something. To me the timeline is much to much of a mess to draw that conclusion.

Right, but what plot?!

It is just speculation on my part, but I did give you what I think is the nature of the plot in the spoiler part of my last post.

Doran wanted to send his daughter to meet Viserys. This was potentially much more dangerous then sending to Viserys some gold.

I repeat - we don't know that Doran didn't help Viserys with gold or other favors. All we know is that whatever the Dornish Prince could do, it wasn't enough.

SPOILER: ADWD

For all I see Young Grif could be both false and real dragon.

SPOILER: ADWD

I don't see how he can be both. He could be real and not know it, or he could be real and others push him into claiming he is Aegon while they think he is a fake. All of this is possible, but either he is Aegon or he is not. My bet is he is not. I don't think a vision to Daenerys would speak of him as a "mummer's dragon" if he was real.

[Mezeh]

Easy, yes. That doesn't mean he did it.

Sorry but this is in the text. When Dany asked Mormont how did he knew that trader would try to poison her Mormont answer that he didn’t knew but suspected after the letter Illirio sent him. Later when Selmy revealed Mormont as Varys spy Mormont again said that Varys wanted her alive. There was no reason for him to lie in either occasion.

[Mezeh]

No, it is not obvious. There is an alternate scenario that is stated as the truth in the text. We know that (1) Robert ordered the hit on Daenerys, (2) Varys appears to have communicated the orders for the murder to take place - there is an assassination attempt and Varys was given the task of setting it up, (3) on his deathbed Robert rescinds the order and this is communicated to Varys by Ned - to which Varys responds it may be too late, (4) Varys sends a message to Ser Jorah to stop the assassination. If your view is correct this plainly outlined series of events has to be a smokescreen for Varys true intentions. What do you have that shows it is so?

There is some time between council where Dany’s fate was discussed and Robert’s death. Besides you forget Littlefinger’s comments to Ned after the council. Petyr said that he and Varys did to the girl much more then Ned and that the plan they agreed most likely would fail (even without of warning) while hiring a faceless mean would surely mean her dead.

I repeat - we don't know that Doran didn't help Viserys with gold or other favors. All we know is that whatever the Dornish Prince could do, it wasn't enough.

Viserys was so penniless that he sold his mother’s crown. This clearly means that he didn’t have any gold on his disposal.

SPOILER: ADWD

I don't see how he can be both. He could be real and not know it, or he could be real and others push him into claiming he is Aegon while they think he is a fake. All of this is possible, but either he is Aegon or he is not. My bet is he is not. I don't think a vision to Daenerys would speak of him as a "mummer's dragon" if he was real.

SPOILER: ADWD

I only mean that IMXO it is possible that Aegon is alive or he is dead and Illirio mean to use impostor in his stead.

[SFDanny]

There is some time between council where Dany’s fate was discussed and Robert’s death. Besides you forget Littlefinger’s comments to Ned after the council. Petyr said that he and Varys did to the girl much more then Ned and that the plan they agreed most likely would fail (even without of warning) while hiring a faceless mean would surely mean her dead.

Petyr does indeed comment about how the plan will likely fail, but that doesn't mean either he or Varys are trying to keep Daenerys alive at that point. This is the claim you have no substantiation for. A straightforward reading of the text would have us believe that Varys tried to both have Robert's order to kill Dany carried out and tried to prevent that from happening when he was ordered to do so. Both are true, if we believe the story as told to us so far. Unfortunately for your theory, such a reading does not support Varys as particularly friendly to Dany's cause.

Viserys was so penniless that he sold his mother’s crown. This clearly means that he didn’t have any gold on his disposal.

Viserys is in exile for almost 13 years. During that time he has no income that we know of. Perhaps he lived on only what money he had from selling the family jewels (no pun intended,) but more likely he was helped along the way by some of his father's old supporters. I'm just saying we have no way of knowing who supported him besides the few folks named in the text (Illyrio, etc.)

[The Wolf Maid]

I don't think Doran or the Martell house would have given money, but it could be possible. After all, Oberyn did try to raise Dorne for Viserys.

Supposing there is going to be a fake Aegon, I'm still wondering how they'll convince people that he is Aegon. Physical coloring wouldn't be enough.

[Mezeh]

Petyr does indeed comment about how the plan will likely fail, but that doesn't mean either he or Varys are trying to keep Daenerys alive at that point. This is the claim you have no substantiation for. A straightforward reading of the text would have us believe that Varys tried to both have Robert's order to kill Dany carried out and tried to prevent that from happening when he was ordered to do so. Both are true, if we believe the story as told to us so far. Unfortunately for your theory, such a reading does not support Varys as particularly friendly to Dany's cause.

Actually this clearly means that neither Littlefinger not Varys really want Dany dead each for his own purpose. Then Varys reports Dany’s pregnancy on the council immediately after his conversation with Illirio. His goal is clear. The conflict between Ned and Roberts over the subject was easily predictable and Varys needed to remove Ned from the capital. The goal was important enough to risk Dany’s life but barely important enough to sacrifice it. And Varys had no particular reason to honor Robert’s death with neither had he to follow Ned’s order on the point since Ned own fall was separated only by few days from Robert’s death and the course of events was predictable too. Besides why should Varys change his mind about Dany? If he ever wanted her death he could have easily arrange it. But what is the most important Varys and Illirio are playing their own game and they would not be influenced by Robert’s or Ned’s state of mind.

Viserys is in exile for almost 13 years. During that time he has no income that we know of. Perhaps he lived on only what money he had from selling the family jewels (no pun intended,) but more likely he was helped along the way by some of his father's old supporters. I'm just saying we have no way of knowing who supported him besides the few folks named in the text (Illyrio, etc.)

Dany describes their living in exile. Willem Darry apparently had some gold to keep the house but after his death most of it was stolen. Viserys and Dany traveled from city to city since Viserys always was afraid of assassins (that never were sent after him). At the beginning they were welcomed in many trader houses since traders were flattered to have last Targaryens as guest. But in time the hospitality died out and they were left for their own devices so Viserys was forced to sell their last possessions to keep them alive. There is no indication that they had some friends or received any help until marriage with Drogo was offered.

It all really looks like Viserys was intestinally allowed to ruin his cause and his reputation.

[A wilding]

One extra point about Varys arranging Dany's assassination.

We hear him and Illyrio discussing the fact that Westeros is likely to descend into chaos too soon, before Drogo will be ready to invade, and discussing how to solve this. Then after the Dany assassination attempt Drogo looses his temper and makes his speech declaring that he will invade Westeros ASAP.

Give Varys' undoubted subtlety, it seems distinctly likely that there is some cause and effect going on there somewhere.

[Mezeh]

Well they said nothing about Drogo’s invasion. Illirio complained that they are not ready not khal. Yet it seems that they would like Drogo to start moving sooner but there is no hint that they prepared invasion on some point.

And another thing. You remember what Drogo said after assassination attempt on his wife? He promised to pillage, rape, burn and kill. And if he would remain alive and managed to get into Westeros he would fulfill his promises. How many westerosy would support such an invasion?

The last point – if Varys wanted to inflame Drogo to the point – Dany’s death would serve much better then mere failed assassination attempt.

[SFDanny]

Actually this clearly means that neither Littlefinger not Varys really want Dany dead each for his own purpose. Then Varys reports Dany’s pregnancy on the council immediately after his conversation with Illirio. His goal is clear. The conflict between Ned and Roberts over the subject was easily predictable and Varys needed to remove Ned from the capital. The goal was important enough to risk Dany’s life but barely important enough to sacrifice it. And Varys had no particular reason to honor Robert’s death with neither had he to follow Ned’s order on the point since Ned own fall was separated only by few days from Robert’s death and the course of events was predictable too. Besides why should Varys change his mind about Dany? If he ever wanted her death he could have easily arrange it. But what is the most important Varys and Illirio are playing their own game and they would not be influenced by Robert’s or Ned’s state of mind.

I don't disagree with the first part of this, but it is very different from the assertion that "Varys wanted Dany alive is obvious." I'm saying that the obvious read is that Varys does Robert's will in the matter. An agenda to the contrary to keep Daenerys alive, while possible, is not obviously true.

Your statement that Varys' "goal is clear" suffers from the same problem. Varys reports a fact to his king. He doesn't make up a scenario to cause friction between Robert and Ned. It's possible that the Spider sees the consequence of his report causing friction, but that is far different from having a goal to do so.

Mezeh, I think you go a step too far with this stuff. You might well be right, but your assumptions are not the "obvious" or "clear" conclusions we have to make.

Dany describes their living in exile. Willem Darry apparently had some gold to keep the house but after his death most of it was stolen. Viserys and Dany traveled from city to city since Viserys always was afraid of assassins (that never were sent after him). At the beginning they were welcomed in many trader houses since traders were flattered to have last Targaryens as guest. But in time the hospitality died out and they were left for their own devices so Viserys was forced to sell their last possessions to keep them alive. There is no indication that they had some friends or received any help until marriage with Drogo was offered.

It all really looks like Viserys was intestinally allowed to ruin his cause and his reputation.

Why would Doran Martell intentionally ruin the cause and reputation of Viserys when his own daughter and heir is pledged to marry him? Prince Doran is a very cautious fellow who likely would take few risks in helping Viserys, but that is very different from no help at all or actively sabotaging him.

[A wilding]

Well they said nothing about Drogo’s invasion. Illirio complained that they are not ready not khal. Yet it seems that they would like Drogo to start moving sooner but there is no hint that they prepared invasion on some point.

Quotes from AGoT:

Illyrio: Too soon, too soon. What good is war now? We are not ready. Delay.

...

Illyrio: Nonetheless we must have time. The princess is with child. The khal will not bestir himself until his son is born. You know how they are these savages.

Varys: If he does not bestir himself soon, it may be too late. <Explanation as to how Westeros is likely to descend in to civil war in the near future>

I think that the implication that they are talking about Drogo's promise to invade Westeros is clear.

And another thing. You remember what Drogo said after assassination attempt on his wife? He promised to pillage, rape, burn and kill. And if he would remain alive and managed to get into Westeros he would fulfill his promises. How many westerosy would support such an invasion?

I agree. I don't see what purpose the invasion was to serve. Possibly they did not mean it to succeed. For example, they might have had false Aegon in the wings to step forward as Westeros' saviour.

The last point – if Varys wanted to inflame Drogo to the point – Dany’s death would serve much better then mere failed assassination attempt.

I agree Drogo probably would have gone ahead even if Dany had been killed, and so Varys & Illyrio may have been willing to risk her death, but I think that with a living Dany and a living son with a claim to the Iron Throne as a constant reminder, he would be more likely to ensure that he did indeed keep his promise and not get side tracked. It is arguable though.

[Mezeh]

I don't disagree with the first part of this, but it is very different from the assertion that "Varys wanted Dany alive is obvious." I'm saying that the obvious read is that Varys does Robert's will in the matter. An agenda to the contrary to keep Daenerys alive, while possible, is not obviously true.

Let us see, there are altogather tree possibilities. First – Varys wanted Dany dead. This contradicts to the facts.

Second – he was indifferent. But in this case he could just do nothing like Littlefinger. The assassination attempt was likely to fail even without or warning since it preparation was left to those who desired promised lordship. The risk for Dany would be greater but she would be as likely to survive as not.

And the last – he wanted her alive. In such a case he had to send warning to his agent with instruction to prevent assassination attempts. And it was done. You raise a question when Varys sent his warning arguing that he possibly sent it only after Robert changed his mind. But why Varys should change his mind together with dying king? And why would he follow Ned wishes?

Your statement that Varys' "goal is clear" suffers from the same problem. Varys reports a fact to his king. He doesn't make up a scenario to cause friction between Robert and Ned. It's possible that the Spider sees the consequence of his report causing friction, but that is far different from having a goal to do so.

Mezeh, I think you go a step too far with this stuff. You might well be right, but your assumptions are not the "obvious" or "clear" conclusions we have to make.

I do think that it was possible, Varys surely was aware about previous conflict between Ned and Robert over killing of Rhaegar’s children. They parted and reconciliated only over common grief for Lyanna. So Robert’s feelings were known Ned’s also and conflict between them was inevitable.

Why would Doran Martell intentionally ruin the cause and reputation of Viserys when his own daughter and heir is pledged to marry him? Prince Doran is a very cautious fellow who likely would take few risks in helping Viserys, but that is very different from no help at all or actively sabotaging him.

He wouldn’t. He intended his daughter to marry Viserys so he had every reason to help his rather then sabotage. And while cautious Doran still was willing to take some risks because he planned to send his daughter to Free cities. Yet Viserys got no help. So my point is that it is possible that help from Doran was sabotaged by somebody else. Our couple Varys/Illirio looks like likely candidates here.

[Mezeh]

Quotes from AGoT:

Illyrio: Too soon, too soon. What good is war now? We are not ready. Delay.

...

Illyrio: Nonetheless we must have time. The princess is with child. The khal will not bestir himself until his son is born. You know how they are these savages.

Varys: If he does not bestir himself soon, it may be too late. <Explanation as to how Westeros is likely to descend in to civil war in the near future>

I think that the implication that they are talking about Drogo's promise to invade Westeros is clear.

You are absolutely right they were talking about Drogo’s promise but there is no indication that they really meant this invasion to take place. Drogo was in their plans for sure but what exactly they intended about his is unclear.

I agree. I don't see what purpose the invasion was to serve. Possibly they did not mean it to succeed. For example, they might have had false Aegon in the wings to step forward as Westeros' saviour.

This is possible and sorry I have to rely on spoiler on this point:

SPOILER: ADWD

It his conversations with Tyrion Illirio do speak about the savior. When realm in is deep trouble and has bad rulers that wary between themselves a savior from across the sea most likely would be welcome and would get a wide support and little opposition. The interesting point is that Illirio talked about dragon with thee heads. He clearly implied Dany but the question is if he implied only her? All other who talked about three heads means three different people and by the second Tyrion spoiler chapter it looks like Illirio does the same. But this means that he should know who are the two remaining dragon heads. Or at least he thinks that he knows.

I agree Drogo probably would have gone ahead even if Dany had been killed, and so Varys & Illyrio may have been willing to risk her death, but I think that with a living Dany and a living son with a claim to the Iron Throne as a constant reminder, he would be more likely to ensure that he did indeed keep his promise and not get side tracked. It is arguable though.

Remember again the Robert’s council? There was no guarantee that Dany would have son and not daughter that she will not miscarry e.t.c. Besides even if she would have son there would be a long time before he would come to manhood. Whatever were Varys and Illirio plans there were not that long term on the point and they would not have plans based on so many chances.

[SFDanny]

Let us see, there are altogather tree possibilities. First – Varys wanted Dany dead. This contradicts to the facts.

Second – he was indifferent. But in this case he could just do nothing like Littlefinger. The assassination attempt was likely to fail even without or warning since it preparation was left to those who desired promised lordship. The risk for Dany would be greater but she would be as likely to survive as not.

And the last – he wanted her alive. In such a case he had to send warning to his agent with instruction to prevent assassination attempts.

And it was done. You raise a question when Varys sent his warning arguing that he possibly sent it only after Robert changed his mind. But why Varys should change his mind together with dying king? And why would he follow Ned wishes?

You leave out the possibility that I raised. Not that Varys wanted her dead or alive or was indifferent to her fate, but rather he acts in a manner consistent with the orders given to him by Robert and Ned. Your second option doesn't allow this possibility. We know he acts both to set up the death and to stop it. The real question is whether his actions are a reflection of his orders or an agenda of his own in the matter. Either are possible, but what we are told is the first is true. I've no problem with you saying you believe there is more to it than that, but you've got to acknowledge it is possible that Varys doesn't act out of the motivation you think he does, and instead acts as an agent of Robert.

I do think that it was possible, Varys surely was aware about previous conflict between Ned and Robert over killing of Rhaegar’s children. They parted and reconciliated only over common grief for Lyanna. So Robert’s feelings were known Ned’s also and conflict between them was inevitable.

Let's assume you are right and he knows this news will bring about a conflict between Robert and Ned. It still doesn't mean his delivery of the news shows he wants this conflict. He is the Master of Whispers and he is carrying out his job by telling the King and council about Danys' pregnancy.

He wouldn’t. He intended his daughter to marry Viserys so he had every reason to help his rather then sabotage. And while cautious Doran still was willing to take some risks because he planned to send his daughter to Free cities. Yet Viserys got no help. So my point is that it is possible that help from Doran was sabotaged by somebody else. Our couple Varys/Illirio looks like likely candidates here.

The only part of this I don't agree with is that Viserys got no help. We don't know that during the 13 years of exile that he received no help. We do know he didn't receive the help he needed to keep from descending into poverty and ridicule. Two very separate things.

[Mezeh]

You leave out the possibility that I raised. Not that Varys wanted her dead or alive or was indifferent to her fate, but rather he acts in a manner consistent with the orders given to him by Robert and Ned. Your second option doesn't allow this possibility. We know he acts both to set up the death and to stop it. The real question is whether his actions are a reflection of his orders or an agenda of his own in the matter. Either are possible, but what we are told is the first is true. I've no problem with you saying you believe there is more to it than that, but you've got to acknowledge it is possible that Varys doesn't act out of the motivation you think he does, and instead acts as an agent of Robert.

Well… You are right I leave out the possibility that Varys acted as agent of Robert. From all we know he and Illirio are playing their own game so acting as agent of Robert contradict to it. How killing Ned that they considered or Drogo invasion could serve to Robert needs? Plainly his needs meant nothing to them.

Let's assume you are right and he knows this news will bring about a conflict between Robert and Ned. It still doesn't mean his delivery of the news shows he wants this conflict. He is the Master of Whispers and he is carrying out his job by telling the King and council about Danys' pregnancy.

Timing is the key here. Varys delivers the news immediately after his conversation with Illirio. They were concerned by Ned’s investigation and looked for ways to stop it. Killing Ned was a bad option so Varys choose a way that would remove Ned no less effectively and without of causing any other conflicts. And he would have succeeded if no Littlefinger interfere.

The only part of this I don't agree with is that Viserys got no help. We don't know that during the 13 years of exile that he received no help. We do know he didn't receive the help he needed to keep from descending into poverty and ridicule. Two very separate things.

Help he needed in order to not have been reduced to begging was really small. Just some gold not even much. If he didn’t receive it this is practically equal to no receiving help at all.