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About SFDanny

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  1. SFDanny


    All good points. Let me first say, I think Martin wants ambiguity about which claim is better between Aegon and Dany. I don't think there is any doubt Dany is named Viserys's heir, but the history of Westeros is not without these kind of disputed claims. Does a male nephew come before a sister? I think some would say so. When it comes down to it, Dany may not agree with them even if she believes Young Griff's claim to be Aegon. The most interesting point here, to me, is the one you raise about Viserys and Dany being possibly unaware of Aegon being passed over. While it maybe true about Dany, I doubt it is true in Viserys's case. Both Rhaella and Ser Willem Darry almost certainly knew. Would they have withheld the information for the young Viserys? I doubt it. They crown Viserys king on Dragonstone and the fact his father explicitly wanted him to be his heir would seem to be something you tell a new king. The reasons why Aerys passed over Aegon may not be something you tell the new king. By which I mean the belief of Aerys that the Dornish troops betrayed Rhaegar may not be something to focus on when looking for any allies one can find in exile. That's particularly true when Rhaella and Ser Willem think Elia, Aegon, and Rhaenys are all dead, and their deaths, and the manner in which they die, all point to the Martells as likely staunch loyalists for a future Targaryen restoration. Instead, the age of Aegon when Rhaegar dies compared to Viserys would seem a likely point to emphasize. I'm sure that as they crowned Viserys, the idea he was "almost a man grown" was something he was encouraged to believe. You're right Dany's thoughts about "Aegon the Sixth of his name" might point to her not knowing of Aerys's decree naming Viserys his heir. If Aegon died in King's Landing it is all a minor historical footnote she wasn't told about. With Young Griff's supposed secret identity as Rhaegar's son, it can become a very large point in evaluating competing claims to the throne. It will be interesting to see who tells her, if she doesn't already know.
  2. SFDanny


    Actually it does matter. Rhaegar was never disinherited. His son was passed over. Aegon is also thought dead by the time Dany is born. That Viserys names her his heir is significant, but if Viserys had known he had a nephew alive, or so Young Griff claims, it might have been different.
  3. SFDanny


    Rhaegar was certainly at odds with his father, but we know of no ill will between mother and son. And no, Viserys is named Aerys's new heir AFTER Rhaegar's death at the Trident. The line of succession is disrupted but not to pass over Rhaegar, but to bypass Aegon's claim in favor of Viserys. None of which speaks to the OP. Mother and son sexual relations is considered incest even by Targaryen and Valryian customs. We have not so much as a hint this took place.
  4. SFDanny

    R+L=J v.165

    You have the right everyone has to want the books to be written in a different way than they are, but it doesn't change what the books say. We have now argued this point for years, I believe, but it doesn't change no matter how much you protest. When I read the books and looked at what the evidence told us, I decided that the only way the timeline made sense was if the burning of Chelsted and the naming of Rossart were separated by some unknown amount of time - likely weeks. I've argued as much, with you and others, for a long while. That you chose to ignore that evidence because of how you wish things to be is another question. LV, the reason I like discussing things with you is because you are well informed about the material, but I don't understand the willingness to ignore this particular evidence in favor of what you want. If you showed me or others how we were wrong in what the books say, most of us would accept the evidence and move on. Why won't you on this particular point?
  5. SFDanny

    R+L=J v.165

    Good additions. I was thinking of us understanding already Jaime's history of the time, but perhaps he has more to tell. Ser Barristan is another who could tell us something. He doesn't seem to have been in King's Landing in Jaime's memories of the time, but that could just be because we are limited in scope to the specifics of each of Jaime's memories. At the very least he could be a source for Rhaegar's thoughts going north to the Trident.
  6. SFDanny

    R+L=J v.165

    No doubt if our author wants to change anything he has that right, and the ability to write the story as he sees fit. I also agree that it seems unlikely changes will happen here. Not that I'm wanting for no new information during this time period. Please tell George that there is a market for all the details he wants to pour out to his fans. I say this as one who has pre-ordered Fire & Blood in print, e-book, and audiobook formats, so I'm not sure I'm the best person to judge the interest, but I can hope. If we suppose Darry told him of the attack on Rhaella, or Rhaegar had other sources in the Red Keep, or even that Rhaella herself meets with her son before he leaves and can't hide the aftermath of the attack, it makes for truly tragic impotence on Rhaegar's part that he cannot do anything but what he did. How one swallows the rage the inability to protect your mother from such brutalization would cause is beyond me. But who is left to tell the story? Off the top of my head I can only think of Varys. I can't see a Varys POV coming, but perhaps he will tell the story to Dany if she ever arrives. I absolutely agree that Rhaegar had to fight a war. Nothing changes with Aerys if he doesn't win at the Trident. That he would win against his father in a battle for the Throne is unsure, but winning against those who would do away with the Targaryens is a prerequisite to any chance Rhaegar has. A council or a coup attempt would only split the loyalist forces when they needed maximum unity to defeat the rebellion. What's the old Jose Marti quote about the "time of the furnaces"? Rhaegar had reached his time of the furnaces, and like Marti he died in his first battle. Perhaps his son or sister can win through.
  7. Blameless? Yes, but still regrettably "soiled." At least so without a marriage to the prince. Of course, that may have been the plan all along. The marriage could have taken place quite early after the "kidnapping." It just seems to me that if that's the case, we are missing a lot about how their relationship got to marriage. Of course, I'm just stating the obvious here. We ARE missing a lot of information on their relationship. A very valid point. But do we know of any ties to House Whent that would hint this is the case? We know Catelyn's mother is from House Whent, but it seems a feeble tie between them before Catelyn's marriage to Ned takes place. I could easily see Sansa sent to House Whent if they had not been a loyalist house during the rebellion. Lyanna being sent there seems much more unlikely, especially after the tourney. Still your point is well taken and it is a possibility. Because the heart of Lord Rickard's alliances start with Lord Jon. My read of the the events at Harrenhal put the Starks front and center of a confrontation with the royal house. The expansion of their alliances to include the Lannisters is exploded with Jaime's honoring by Aerys with his naming to be a member of the Kingsguard. The marriage pact between House Baratheon and the Starks is threatened by Rhaegar's naming of Lyanna his queen of love and beauty. In between we have a Stark (likely Brandon in my opinion) dishonoring one of the ladies in waiting to Princess Elia - who just happens to be the sister of Rhaegar's sworn shield and Kingsguard protector, and best friend. As I see it all Stark plans are challenged at Harrenhal and they are placed at odds with the royal house as a whole. That means to me, they have to consider the events and plans with their closest confidantes - starting with Jon Arryn. Or so I see it. It's not my point, but I think it important. The why of Elbert Arryn and Kyle Royce inclusion among Brandon's companions, and its ramifications, has been debated before the 11 years I've been here. I think it might have been @Ran who brought this up, but if not he can correct me. I also tend towards Steffan Stasse's idea that what we might be seeing in the party is more than friends and a squire, but friends who might have been foster brothers. Did Elbert and Kyle go north to foster with Brandon in Barrowton to be taught by House Dustin's famous veteran of the War of the Sevenpenny Kings? Or to Winterfell? I think it would make sense. It would explain why these men would follow Brandon to their deaths in King's Landing. I think we also know Brandon wasn't present because Catelyn says he heard the news of Lyanna's abduction, not that he witnessed it. I highly doubt Ned was there or we would have had some indication of it in his thoughts in AGoT. And as I said, if Lyanna was traveling with her father and his 200 men, I don't think a confrontation at swordpoint would have ended with Rhaegar and his party leaving with Lyanna. Perhaps they could have snuck into camp and stole her before raising an alarm, but not if they were discovered. Which makes me think Lyanna would most likely have been traveling under a much smaller escort of guards and companions when she meets up with Rhaegar's party. You are as well, but I have to say although I TRY to be nice, especially to those posters I respect for their informed opinions, but even there I have been less than nice on occasion. I think @Lord Varys can testify to my less than nice responses at times, although I like him and certainly respect him as well. Anyway, I will try my best to not explode at the next thread that starts with calling Catelyn or Sansa horrible names. It is not always easy.
  8. SFDanny

    R+L=J v.165

    It is crystal clear that you think this makes sense. I won't argue what you think makes sense. But that is hardly the point. The author has chosen the timeline of events that says what you prefer, because it makes sense to you, didn't happen. Martin is not only not writing the story to your specifications, but he is writing them to someone else's - his own. Time to get over this. Also, that the office of Hand is left open obviously doesn't mean Aerys plan is somehow stifled. If anything Rossart is as free as he ever was to proceed. I'm going to assume you got caught in a autocorrect mistake here. "Prevaricate" is a synonym for "lie." I think you must have meant something like "procrastinate." If not tell me please how the degree Aerys lies has to do with anything here. The two examples you give would seem to point to putting off decisions. The substance of your point, I think, is wrong. We already have an example of Aerys not immediately replacing one Hand with another during the rebellion. That occurs when Connington is finally appointed to the position after "Rhaegar could not be found." This implies searching for Rhaegar. How long a search we don't know, but a delay in appointing Connington as Hand, during wartime and by this same king, took place. Just as importantly is that we know Aerys considered Rhaegar as his Hand after Merryweather's failures. It maybe he does so again if Rhaegar wins against the rebels. Which implies he would wait until the outcome to make the decision of who should replace Chelsted. We know this is precisely the time delay in question, as the quote in TWoI&F places Rossart's appointment after the news of the Trident. It is not that Aerys didn't know who his candidates for he new Hand could be, but rather that events delayed that decision. Rhaegar, or raising up another member of the small council might have been considered in normal times. As would elevating a proven loyal lord from outside. All of this would be "natural." What is outside the box is, as @Bael's Bastard shows is the elevation of a low-born pyromancer to such a high position. There is nothing natural about it. And again, the delay in naming a new Hand in no way hinders the pyromancer plot. What we should be asking ourselves here is, is the pyromancer plot aimed solely at the rebels? Is it aimed at also, or even more directly, at the royal army, led by a victorious Rhaegar, coming back to King's Landing and trying to dictate the terms of victory? We know from Jaime that Rhaegar is out of the loop of information about the pyromancers activities. Is that purposefully done or is it just an accident of his activity? The King's Hand issuing orders through the normal forms of his office might also draw attention that Aerys didn't want. If Chelsted had to figure this out, it is quite likely others on the small council and throughout the bureaucracy did not know. Keeping the knowledge to only those who had to do the work fits the needs of the plot much more than any discussion in the small council or decree issued in the Hand's name. That is not obvious at all. You have been given numerous reasons why the appointment of Rossart might have been delayed. You just don't want to consider them and insist that because you have a problem with the timeline as the author puts it that it must be done immediately. It looks to me, my friend, like you have painted yourself in a corner here and just don't want to acknowledge it. Perhaps we will learn more about this time period - I hope so - but the author is under no obligation to give any more information than he already has. His timeline here is in no way in conflict with what he has told us up to this point. It fits.
  9. I agree. There is certainly the possibility that Lyanna has runaway before Rhaegar finds her. I find it unlikely, not because she isn't independent and willful and willing to take risks that other highborn women would not, but because of her history at Harrenhal. She travels there with her three brothers and likely with Winterfell retainers as well. They all know the events there and the interest shown her by Rhaegar, and the brothers, at least, likely know her own feelings in the matter. Lyanna does not seem the person to be unable to speak her mind or to just be silent and take whatever her father and brothers tell her to do. As such, I think it highly unlikely Lyanna would be allowed to travel unaccompanied if there is anything the brothers could do about it. She is pledged to Robert, and it is their duty that she is protected and delivered safely to her own marriage a maiden. That doesn't mean the brothers would not wish to protect her regardless of her status, but a Stark's word is a honor bound promise to do as pledged. I just don't see the likelihood that Lyanna wasn't traveling without escort with all of this history. Especially if the marriage to Robert is being moved up to take place shortly. To me, that means Winterfell guards, and a Septa Mordane-like figure to travel with her wherever she goes. Perhaps others including young women of her own age. I think this is what we should expect. It seems likely that Dany's version comes from Viserys. The Targaryen "official" view of history, if you will. That doesn't mean there isn't truth in it, but I agree all versions should be taken with a grain or two of salt. But because I find it highly likely Lyanna would be traveling with an escort, the "swordpoint" version of the abduction seems entirely logical to me. Nor is it in contradiction to Robert's own view that this was a "kidnapping." Both indicate at least the threat of force. The question is, of course, against whom? What I find fascinating in Dany's/Viserys's story is how this version is compared to a hoped for rescue from another unwanted marriage. Combined with other clues like Lyanna's word to Ned about Robert's "nature" and others, I think we have some strong hints this is a rescue from an upcoming marriage to Robert. About Martin borrowing from Kay, all I can say is he borrows from lots and lots of authors and history. It's possible. I will say I think Robert would think this a kidnapping and rape regardless of what Lyanna's views are on the subject. He makes it pretty clear that he thinks Lyanna was his, and that means Rhaegar's attentions to her are akin to a trespasser violating the landlord's rights, regardless of what Lyanna (aka his property) wanted Does disguising an elopement as a kidnapping help Lyanna in anyway? I don't know, but it sure doesn't help Rhaegar. There is too little to make anything sure here, but I'll gladly tell you why I think this the most likely scenario. First, I don't think it at all likely that given House Whent's ties to Rhaegar that Lyanna would have been allowed to stay in Harrenhal after the tourney. It seems much more likely that given Rhaegar's declaration of his interest in Lyanna and therefore his opposition to her marriage to Robert that the Starks would do everything they can do to keep Lyanna away for Targaryen loyalists, especially Rhaegar loyalists. Second, It also seems to me the likely response of the Starks to the events in Harrenhal is to go to the Vale and communicate with both Jon Arryn and Lord Rickard. This would entail getting Benjen back to Winterfell ("there must always be a Stark in Winterfell") and beginning Lord Rickard's march south to Riverrun. The make up of Brandon's party to include both Elbert Arryn and Royce may be an indication of this. I also think Brandon's journey to Riverrun is part of the finalization of the marriage plans. Robert likely goes with the Starks to the Eyrie to make the joint response. Third, I think that if Lyanna was traveling with her father and his 200 men, or if she was traveling with Robert, Brandon, or Ned there would be zero chance of a confrontation at "swordpoint" would come off peacefully. Yet we have no indication there is any blood shed. The app tells us that Rhaegar's party consists of himself, Ser Arthur, and Ser Oswell. Which tells me the Winterfell side had not the great overwhelming numbers of Lord Rickard's party or the hotheads of a party including Brandon or Robert. This tells me that Lyanna was likely traveling to Riverrun from the Vale and escorted by what would normally be considered a party sufficient to deter outlaws and keep Lyanna's reputation intact. The reason she would be sent seems to be both to be part of the preparation of Brandon and Catelyn's wedding, and to possibly help plan her own. Of course, none of this is certain. It is rather a process of looking at all the possibilities and weighing which I think is the most likely. I always enjoy reading your thoughts, Ygrain. No apologies are necessary. After eleven years on this forum I have grown to appreciate and enjoy well thought out discussion, and I can always count on you to bring such thoughts to the threads.
  10. SFDanny

    R+L=J v.165

    It does. It also clearly states as I said that Rhaegar was clearly committed to calling a council, presumably to finally remove Aerys, after the upcoming battle. Events at the Trident changed all of that, of course. All of this is possible, but my guess is that Rhaegar finally begins planning to remove his father after Duskendale when Aerys's descent into madness becomes most marked. We see in Lord Connington's remarks and thoughts that Rhaegar's view of his father changes over time. It is likely that the young prince would be shocked by the transformation of Aerys after Duskendale. Aerys was never a model of stability and always had a cruel streak in him, but it is after Duskendale that he changes into what is to be known as the "mad king." My guess is also this builds into the plot to take place at the Harrenhal tourney, but Aerys's presence and the rejection of Rhaegar's plans by the Starks and others changes those plans. As I've said before, I think we see Rhaegar's plans shift from the start of the tourney to the its last day when he declares his support for his father in his action of naming Lyanna his Queen of Love and Beauty. This again changes when Rhaegar runs away with Lyanna and hides from Aerys's reach. But Rhaegar is forced to come back and join his father after the Battle of the Bells. I think this is largely due to the open threat to Elia and their children, but one should also not forget that both father and son have a common interest in Targaryen rule being maintained. Lastly we see in Rhaegar's comments to Jaime his plans to end Aerys's rule after a victory over the rebels. All of which is to say, that we see in the Aerys/Rhaegar relationship the political game of thrones being played out just as we do in many others in the main series. Think of the Tyrell's shifting alliances over the space of a few months. That doesn't mean there are not personal ties between Aerys and Rhaegar than influence all of these changes. Which is one reason I wonder about what Rhaegar knew or did not know about Aerys's assault on his mother.
  11. SFDanny

    R+L=J v.165

    We talking of a vacancy of weeks, not months. So, "quite some time" doesn't describe what we are dealing with. The idea that there is a great mystery involved in the reason Aerys does not appoint a successor to Chelsted immediately is more a detail than a real mystery. I'm all for filling out the details, but we are likely to never get an exact timeline. @Ran's response confirms what I've argued for a while to the extent that it clearly puts the events Jaime recalls of Aerys's assault on Rhaella before the Trident, and it puts the start of Rossart's tenure as Hand sometime later. To me the more interesting part of this is whether this confirms that Rhaegar knew of Aerys's assault on his mother before he leaves to the Trident? Does he learn at all? Clearly his remarks to Jaime when he leaves tell us he was committed to removing Aerys if he won at the Trident. All of which shows the changing nature of this father and son's relationship. Sometime over long periods of time, and at others likely abrupt changes forced by events.
  12. SFDanny

    R+L=J v.165

    Thank you RT! I've been arguing this topic with @Lord Varys for sometime. I think this settles the argument. Or it should.
  13. SFDanny

    What to ask GRRM?

    I have a timeline question that I'd love to have answered. We first see the comet in Bran's last A Game of Thrones chapter when Maester Luwin sees it in the early morning. It appears quite more spectacularly in Daenerys's last AGoT chapter in which the dragons are born back into the world. My question is, are these two characters, Dany and Maester Luwin, seeing the comet for the first time on same day or about the same time? It would help in sorting out some basic timeline questions and syncing Daenerys's story to all the others in AGoT. I'd also love to know who are the contemporaries of Maester Walys of Winterfell, Maester Kym in Riverrun, and Maester Cressen in Storm's End at Casterly Rock, and at the Eyrie? And while we are contemplating maesters, who was the maester on Dragonstone while Rhaegar was the Crown Prince there? Perhaps Marwyn? Lastly, and I know he won't answer this one, but I'd love to know if the lemon tree in Braavos was a gift from the Martell brothers?
  14. I agree absolutely. That's one hell of a rumor. It keeps coming up over, and over, and over again in the books. Martin tells us not all is well between Father and Son. No, I'm afraid this has gone well beyond rumor and has become the established fact. Rhaegar didn't admit to trying to call a council to jaime because he thought Aerys's rule was going along swimmingly. Yandel's description comparing the factional dispute between Aerys and Rhaegar to the time of the Dance of the Dragons kind of nails the coffin lid shut on all being well between father and son. And Rhaegar didn't hide where his father couldn't find him because he was supporting Aerys's actions. No, this doesn't pass the laugh test anymore, if it ever did. What is true is that the relationship is not static. It changes over time. We do see periods where Father and Son work together. Periods where their interests in saving Targaryen rule align. Of course, @Ralphis Baratheon's point is also true. Holding Rhaegar's family hostage changes one's view of the closeness of Rhaegar and the king. I've long argued this is not just an act against Dorne, but is also the basis for which Rhaegar finally comes north to help with the war. Whatever the nature of Rhaegar's and Elia's relationship, the fact Aerys is willing to hold Rhaegar's children as hostages is a fundamental change in their relationship. You can't hold a knife to Rhaenys and Aegon's throats and not expect Rhaegar to finally understand the depths of Aerys's madness. Which is basically what Lord Jon tells us. Here we agree.
  15. Let me add some things. The simplest explanation of why Brandon thinks Rhaegar went to King's Landing is that was what he was told. @Bael's Bastard has proposed this comes in the form of a false trail laid by Rhaegar through comments he makes during the "kidnapping." I find this quite possible and like the echos of this we see in Catelyn's own taking of Tyrion some sixteen years later. But it doesn't have to be even this. Let me again point out that it is highly unlikely Lyanna is traveling unaccompanied. Most speculation, and it is still speculation, centers on her traveling to Riverrun to attend the upcoming wedding. As such, she would likely be under guard by Winterfell men assigned to that duty. I think it likely she is coming from the Vale, and others (such as @Ygrain) have suggested she is traveling from Harrenhal after having stayed there since the tourney. But the important part is she isn't going to travel alone. Those "swordpoints" are pointed at someone, and I doubt it's Lyanna herself. What then do Winterfell guards do once the Crown Prince has taken their charge from them? I would suggest they do two things, if there are more than one of them. First, someone goes and tells the nearest Stark what happened, and also someone should try to follow Rhaegar's party to see where they are taking Lyanna. So all the wondering about why Brandon thinks Rhaegar took Lyanna to King's Landing could well be explained by a report to Brandon's party by a guard who trailed Lyanna and Rhaegar down the King's Road. This doesn't have to be complicated. That doesn't negate the points I tried to make about Brandon's challenge to a duel and the purposeful location of where he makes the challenge. Hoster Tully has Brandon right. He is a "gallant fool" but that doesn't mean he is without a plan. It is very important here to separate what Brandon thought from what Rhaegar thought. The question of why Rhaegar doesn't take other roads such as the road to Saltpans or Maidenpool or others is in someways interesting, but in other ways not. Most of the other roads to other ways to the sea and thence to Dragonstone are in the Riverlands. As such, Rhaegar would be traveling in territory at least nominally controlled by others, and those others are in my opinion are not only his political opponents, but part of a building alliance against his interests. The Tullys are hardly going to allow Rhaegar to travel through their lands with Lyanna taken against the Stark wishes. Can Rhaegar's party travel faster than Tully ravens? I don't think so. This doesn't even deal with the possible problems with Elia if he were to bring Lyanna to Dragonstone. That doesn't mean some of these suggestions don't have interesting aspects to them. That's especially true of Maidenpool and House Mooton. Could the party have escaped there quickly and received refuge from Ser Myles's family? Of course that would put House Mooton in the crosshairs of Tully ire. But here the important part of the story is what we know happened. Rhaegar and Lyanna at some point disappeared, and it looks like this occurs as they travel south on the King's Road. This act, instead of showing up in a loyalist stronghold, shows a different agenda on the part of at least the Crown Prince than that of his father. For Aerys, he could hold Lyanna as a hostage, and Brandon as well after he so foolishly arrives in the Red Keep, and that would be an end to the marriage alliances and all the planning of the Starks and others. Rhaegar doesn't want to give his father that power, or he would have run straight to the Red Keep himself. But, obviously, he also doesn't want the Robert/Lyanna wedding to go through. Why then doesn't Rhaegar go to Dragonstone or some other seat of his faction's power? I think we have the answer in what happens to Elia and her children. When Rhaegar leaves Elia, Rhaenys, and Aegon at Dragonstone they have some immediate safety from Aerys control, but that is illusory as their removal to King's Landing shows. Unless, Rhaegar is prepared to come to blows with those bearing a royal summons he has to hide. And hide he does. He hides to prevent open conflict. And I think to let tempers cool. Which is where Rhaegar makes his mistake. He doesn't count on Brandon's challenge or Aerys's summons to the party's fathers to answer to charges of treason. But here the important point is what does Rhaegar's choice of hiding tell us about his mindset. It tells us he breaks with his father and he fulfills his promise at Harrenhal to step in to prevent Robert and Lyanna's marriage. In so doing he summons a whirlwind of anger, but not a unified anger. And as long as the party remains hidden he isn't likely to suffer much in the way of consequences to himself or to Lyanna. I hope this adds something to the discussion. Off to bed. Good night all. Oh, and one other point. Or rather two. First, Martin has made it clear that the Martells are not "ok" with Rhaegar's taking of Lyanna. Whatever Elia may think, the two brothers think their brother-in-law is treating their sister badly, and they have every reason to wonder it this means he might set her and her children aside. Second, please correct me if I'm wrong, but my reading of the maps Martin has published has the Tower of Joy outside of Dorne. Yes, it has the Red Mountains of Dorne in its background, but I believe it is in the Reaches. I would love to know which local lord controls this land, but I don't think we know.