Theory about the Tower of Joy...

[bacchys]

[quote name='Greycox' post='1698629' date='Feb 24 2009, 19.29']If Ashara was the one then it might also help to explain her suicide (if it really happened) because by telling Ned where to find Lyanna she also helped to bring about her own brother's death. That might have been something she felt she couldn't live with.[/quote]
That has the ring of plausibility to it. It makes more sense than pining over Eddard Stark because he was married. Ashara is a noblewoman in a culture where she was raised to expect the head of her family to arrange the best marriage for the family.

Eddard's killing Arthur would have been tragic, too, but that too is part and parcel of the world she lives in: knights get killed in battle. But if she believes herself personally responsible in some way for the death of the Sword of the Morning...

[Shewoman]

Greycox, where did Ashara run into Ned to tell him this? He was a general under Robert, so I doubt that he was spending much time during the war in Dorne or Kings Landing (the two main sites we associate with Ashara--along with Harrenhal). Arthur was apparently stationed at the KoJ for a time. We don't know that Ashara and Lyanna were friends. Since the Daynes were Targaryen supporters and, if Lyanna was installed at the Tower of Joy, it was probably to keep any secrets she might have safe, [i]would [/i]Ashara have outed her and Rhaegar?

[israfel070]

[quote name='The_Black_Fish' post='1698320' date='Feb 24 2009, 11.53']Hey this reminds me of a question I had. Who ever told Ned where to find his sister? Does it ever say anything about that in the books?[/quote]
Some possible candidates; Wylla, Barristan.

Ned's speech implies that he did NOT learn the location of the remaining KG at these locations; the Trident, King's Landing, or Storm's End, which was Ned's last known stop before raiding the ToJ. Stannis, after Ned's liberation of Storm's End, immediately began raising a navy to assault Dragonstone, the location of the Dany-pregnant Rhaella and Viserys. Likewise, Ned tells the KG at the ToJ that he had assumed they were at Dragonstone with the Queen, which means he must have been surprised by the KG presence at the Tower. His information was solely regarding the whereabouts of Lyanna.

This sounds a lot like a trap to me. Perhaps a Targ loyalist (a Tyrell or Redwyne?) told Ned where she was after their side lost Storm's End, but neglected to mention the KG as a trick to get Ned killed by them.

There are Howland's green dreams to consider, too. It's a scary thought though, for green dreams to lead you to a certain location without warning you that three of the biggest badasses on the entire continent are waiting for you when you get there.

[israfel070]

[quote name='bacchys' post='1698661' date='Feb 24 2009, 16.02']It makes more sense than pining over Eddard Stark because he was married. Ashara is a noblewoman in a culture where she was raised to expect the head of her family to arrange the best marriage for the family.[/quote]
Really? You think a woman would be more heartbroken by her brother's death than the marriage of her lover to another woman? Not that these relationships are set in stone, but the regular theory seems MUCH more plausible to me than the "my brother died so I have to kill myself" line of thought.

[SFDanny]

[quote name='israfel070' post='1698729' date='Feb 24 2009, 20.57']Really? You think a woman would be more heartbroken by her brother's death than the marriage of her lover to another woman? Not that these relationships are set in stone, but the regular theory seems MUCH more plausible to me than the "my brother died so I have to kill myself" line of thought.[/quote]

Except that's not the theory. It's that if Ashara commits suicide it is at least in part because [i]she would have helped cause [/i]the death of her brother by telling Ned of Lyanna's location. Not the same thing as killing herself because she hears he has died. Also it should be said the Tully alliance with House Stark through the marriage of Catelyn and Ned has to be widely known for many months previous to Ned's arrival in Starfall. It makes little sense that she would have just found out this news when Ned arrives. So given that view, what would you think is the more plausible reason Ashara throws herself into the sea?

Now, I've put this theory out before and it always is based on something we don't know to be the truth - a meeting of Ned and Ashara sometime before Ned sets out to the Tower of Joy. What we do know is that Ned has to have found out about the location of Lyanna from someone, and the most likely place for that to have happened is, in my opinion, at the lifting of the siege of Storm's End. Would Ashara have been with the besieging armies there? Your guess is as good as mine, but given Ned's actions show he leaves Storm's End in the company of a small group of his most trusted companions and travels to the Tower of Joy, and if he finds out the location right before he sets out someone who has a connection, or knows someone with a connection, with the Tower of Joy has to be the source. Ashara's name has to be on that list of suspects.

[israfel070]

[quote name='SFDanny' post='1698768' date='Feb 24 2009, 17.50']Except that's not the theory. It's that if Ashara commits suicide it is at least in part because [i]she would have helped cause [/i]the death of her brother by telling Ned of Lyanna's location. Not the same thing as killing herself because she hears he has died. Also it should be said the Tully alliance with House Stark through the marriage of Catelyn and Ned has to be widely known for many months previous to Ned's arrival in Starfall. It makes little sense that she would have just found out this news when Ned arrives. So given that view, what would you think is the more plausible reason Ashara throws herself into the sea?[/quote]
There's hearing the news of Ned's marriage, and then there's Ned showing up and breaking things off with all his cold brittle strength. Possibly with a baby already in tow, that he may even have told Ashara was his by Wylla, as he told others. Or possibly, he told Ashara all about R+L=J and considered entrusting the Stark baby to her, but reneged on the idea when it became clear that the child would have Stark features. Or possibly he HAD the baby with Ashara herself, THEN broke things off and snatched the baby from her and left. All of these make way more sense to me than Arthur's death being the cause of her suicide. Ashara probably would have been thinking/hoping that the marriage was purely political and that Ned's heart still belonged to her, and that she could still have some sort of ongoing life with him as a paramour.

My problem with Ashara being Ned's source is that he went to Starfall afterwards "where she awaited Arthur." She was expecting her brother to survive the war. This kind of confidence does not suggest that she was aware that the general who ran the rebellion after Robert's wounding was going to be battling against her brother. The way it was stated does not suggest that she was feeling torn between her brother and her love, either. She sounds completely unaware that they were ever in direct conflict. Also, let's look at the exchange between Edric and Arya again:
"Why did she jump in the sea, though?"
"Her heart was broken."
"Did someone break it?"
"My Aunt Allyria says Lady Ashara and your father fell in love at Harrenhall..."
Once again, the situation points to a romantic heartbreak, not Ashara feeling guilt over some unevidenced betrayal of her brother.

[Raff the Sweetling]

Maybe Rhaegar really did kidnap Lyanna, but Arthur Dayne falls in love with her, gets her pregnant, (big kingsguard no no). As soon as he finds out Rhaeger has been slain, he steals her away to the Tower of Joy with a couple of his brothers. Ned shows up, Lyanna screams "Eddard!" because he's about to kill her baby daddy. This makes Jon a Dayne, not a Targ, officially negating all R+L=J theories and making it A+L=J. He is Snow, and he is of the Night(watch). Or maybe not.

[israfel070]

Whoa, that's a lot of tinfoil. We know for a fact that Rhaegar was at the Tower with her until a few weeks before his death.

And LOL at the Sword of the Morning being her baby daddy... nice turn of phrase!

It doesn't make Jon a Dayne though, unless Lyanna willingly married Arthur (or alternately, if Ned secretly married Ashara).

[Raff the Sweetling]

Oh well it was worth a shot. I just find alot of weirdness in the Jon Targ theory and try to talk myself out of it as much as possible.

[Happy Ent]

[quote name='bacchys' post='1698658' date='Feb 25 2009, 00.58']I don't particularly care for the "Howland warged" theory, either. A simpler theory, and one I think more in keeping with this mostly low magic world of GRRM's, is Howland used a net to entangle Dayne and give Eddard the opportunity to deliver a mortal blow. From the descriptions we have of the Crannogmen, a spear and a net are tools he was probably quite familiar with.[/quote]
But we [i]do[/i] have a description of the Little Crannogman (Howland), at it all but flat-out tells us that he is a great spell-caster who knows “all the magic” of the crannogmen, not a good fighter, and spends a Winter at the Isle of Faces, probably the most magicky place south of the Wall. So it’s [i]at least as parsimonious[/i] to assume that he uses magic. Just as we would expect Bran or Mel or Varamyr Sixskins to use magic in a fight.

And since we know that even an untrained warg like Bran [i]can[/i] control other people (Bran does it with Hodor and doesn’t need [i]any[/i] instruction), it would be well aligned with the books to assume that Howland can control Arthur. Not as well as he would be able to control the lackwit Hodor, but maybe enough to miss a single parry at an opportune moment.

On the other hand, Dayne would have cut down a weak, little net-weilding spearman with his left “while taking a piss with his right.” A warg he couldn’t defend against.

So I find both ideas equally plausible. Howland Superwarg has at least as good textual evidence, and I like it better because it’s fun.

[israfel070]

[quote name='Happy Ent' post='1699013' date='Feb 24 2009, 21.56']But we [i]do[/i] have a description of the Little Crannogman (Howland), at it all but flat-out tells us that he is a great spell-caster who knows “all the magic” of the crannogmen, not a good fighter, and spends a Winter at the Isle of Faces, probably the most magicky place south of the Wall. So it’s [i]at least as parsimonious[/i] to assume that he uses magic. Just as we would expect Bran or Mel or Varamyr Sixskins to use magic in a fight.

And since we know that even an untrained warg like Bran [i]can[/i] control other people (Bran does it with Hodor and doesn’t need [i]any[/i] instruction), it would be well aligned with the books to assume that Howland can control Arthur. Not as well as he would be able to control the lackwit Hodor, but maybe enough to miss a single parry at an opportune moment.

On the other hand, Dayne would have cut down a weak, little net-weilding spearman with his left “while taking a piss with his right.” A warg he couldn’t defend against.

So I find both ideas equally plausible. Howland Superwarg has at least as good textual evidence, and I like it better because it’s fun.[/quote]
The crannogmen don't have warging. That's the whole reason they want to take Bran to the Children of the Forest, because neither Jojen nor anyone they know can help Bran learn to use his powers. You're confusing two schools of magic here.

[AquariumDrinker]

[quote name='Happy Ent' post='1699013' date='Feb 24 2009, 23.56']On the other hand, Dayne would have cut down a weak, little net-weilding spearman with his left “while taking a piss with his right.” A warg he couldn’t defend against.[/quote]


I personally believe that Howland Reed helped Eddard survive that fight in much the same way that Arya helped the Hound survive his fight in the Inn. By hitting an unaware Dayne causing him to pause just long enough for Eddard to finish it.


As it was mentioned, Bran is being taken to the North because no one else can help train him. If Howland Reed was that accomplished a mage, he would train Bran himself. I think he learned lore and history at the isle of faces.

[Happy Ent]

[quote name='israfel070' post='1699020' date='Feb 25 2009, 07.07']The crannogmen don't have warging.[/quote]
Huh? Meera and Jojen just happen to know a lot about warging from — books?

[quote]That's the whole reason they want to take Bran to the Children of the Forest, [...][/quote]
Which can be found on the Isle of Faces or North of the Wall. Howland Reed visited the Isle of Faces. Bran goes North of the Wall. No contradiction.

And the decision to not go to Howland is not even clear. Here’s the only dialogue I could find, from just after the trio leaves the crypts:
[quote]“Will we go to your lord father?” Bran asked as they crossed the drawbridge between the walls. “To Greywater Watch?”
Meera looked to her brother for the answer. “Our road is north,” Jojen announced.[/quote]
Meera doesn’t know that they are [i]not[/i] going to Howland. Jojen makes the decision.

But maybe I’m missing something. Could you point me to evidence that Crannogmen don’t warg?

[SFDanny]

[quote name='israfel070' post='1698919' date='Feb 24 2009, 23.06']There's hearing the news of Ned's marriage, and then there's Ned showing up and breaking things off with all his cold brittle strength. Possibly with a baby already in tow, that he may even have told Ashara was his by Wylla, as he told others. Or possibly, he told Ashara all about R+L=J and considered entrusting the Stark baby to her, but reneged on the idea when it became clear that the child would have Stark features. Or possibly he HAD the baby with Ashara herself, THEN broke things off and snatched the baby from her and left. All of these make way more sense to me than Arthur's death being the cause of her suicide. Ashara probably would have been thinking/hoping that the marriage was purely political and that Ned's heart still belonged to her, and that she could still have some sort of ongoing life with him as a paramour.[/quote]

Oh, I don't mean to say there aren't other explanations. They have their own problems, however. If it is, as you say, that it is the shock of Ned showing up in Starfall, possibly with baby in tow, that sends Ashara over the edge, then why do the Daynes help Ned? Ned brings no troops with him to Starfall, so he is traveling with only Howland Reed (assuming he is still with him) and maybe a baby and a few others. How then does he walk in to the heart of Dayne strength, with Dorne still technically at war with Robert and his rebels, and tell them he killed Ser Arthur, tell Ashara he won't have anything to do with her anymore, here's my newborn child with this woman Wylla, and then get their help? Makes no sense at all. They should have put Ned in a crow's cage right after Ashara goes over the cliff, if not sooner. If Jon is Ashara's son or Ned tells them he is Lyanna and Rhaegar's son, how does he force the Daynes to hand him over? Again, it makes no sense. Especially with Ned Dayne speaking in so soothing tones about Ned Stark so many years later. Ned Stark should be THE mortal enemy of the Daynes if he does as you suggest - not even dealing with how in the hell he gets out of Dorne.

Anyway, there are lots of explanations - especially concerning where the information about Lyanna's location comes from - I'd only suggest Ashara's guilt over telling Ned Lyanna's location that then lead to the death of her brother is one, and one that would explain her suicide much better than most.

[quote name='israfel070' post='1698919' date='Feb 24 2009, 23.06']My problem with Ashara being Ned's source is that he went to Starfall afterwards "where she awaited Arthur." She was expecting her brother to survive the war. This kind of confidence does not suggest that she was aware that the general who ran the rebellion after Robert's wounding was going to be battling against her brother. The way it was stated does not suggest that she was feeling torn between her brother and her love, either. She sounds completely unaware that they were ever in direct conflict.[/quote]
I agree. I did not mean to suggest Ashara gave the information to Ned thinking he would battle with her brother. That could be explained if she doesn't know of Jon's birth. She would think, just as Ned does, that the Kingsguard has no reason to still be guarding Lyanna and preventing her brother from getting to her. Ashara's guilt and her suicide is best understood if she did not think the Kingsguard and Ned's men would fight.

[quote name='israfel070' post='1698919' date='Feb 24 2009, 23.06']Also, let's look at the exchange between Edric and Arya again:
"Why did she jump in the sea, though?"
"Her heart was broken."
"Did someone break it?"
"My Aunt Allyria says Lady Ashara and your father fell in love at Harrenhall..."Once again, the situation points to a romantic heartbreak, not Ashara feeling guilt over some unevidenced betrayal of her brother.[/quote]
I don't think there is much argument that Ned and Ashara had a romantic relationship. Seeing him could even have helped her sink into the depression that sent her over the cliff. The news of Catelyn and Ned's marriage, however, should [i]not[/i] be a significant factor. She had to know, as most of Westeros surely knew, that the rebel alliance of houses Tully, Stark, and Arryn was brought to fruition through that marriage, and the marriage of Jon Arryn and Lysa, many months before. Unless Ashara was living in a cave it shouldn't be news to her when Ned arrives.

[israfel070]

[quote name='SFDanny' post='1699039' date='Feb 24 2009, 22.40']How then does he walk in to the heart of Dayne strength, with Dorne still technically at war with Robert and his rebels, and tell them he killed Ser Arthur, tell Ashara he won't have anything to do with her anymore, here's my newborn child with this woman Wylla, and then get their help? Makes no sense at all. They should have put Ned in a crow's cage right after Ashara goes over the cliff, if not sooner. If Jon is Ashara's son or Ned tells them he is Lyanna and Rhaegar's son, how does he force the Daynes to hand him over? Again, it makes no sense. Especially with Ned Dayne speaking in so soothing tones about Ned Stark so many years later.[/quote]
Despite Ashara's evident suicide over a heartbreak from Ned, we know that the Daynes seem to have no problem with him and still call Edric by the nickname Ned. Edric was friendly and respectful to Arya rather than put-off by bad family feelings towards the Starks, and he talks of having been openly told the reason for his aunt's suicide. So there was no rift between them, even though he DID break Ashara's heart. I believe Ashara killed herself after his departure, not when he started knocking on the door. And I personally think that he explained to her that R+L=the baby in question, so your logic doesn't really present a problem to my personal stance- I was just pointing out several better reasons for her suicide and a few outright references that Ned was the cause, not Arthur. Sorry, I think there's enough evidence to call this one what it is.

It's still an assumption to say that Ashara heard about the marriage. If she did, she might not even believe it until she heard it from him. If she believed it 100% (which I doubt), she might dream up any numbers of solutions to the problem; Ned could send his wife away, Ned could live in KL or Starfall and still have a relationship with Ashara, he could ask his best friend the new King to give him a divorce now that he didn't need the Tully armies anymore, etc etc. Hearing something of that magnitude and accepting it are two totally separate things. I really don't think the other half of N+A would get that raven and say "Damn! Oh well. You win some, you lose some."

[Martin's Ghost]

[quote name='israfel070' post='1698726' date='Feb 25 2009, 01.54']Some possible candidates; Wylla, Barristan.

Ned's speech implies that he did NOT learn the location of the remaining KG at these locations; the Trident, King's Landing, or Storm's End, which was Ned's last known stop before raiding the ToJ. Stannis, after Ned's liberation of Storm's End, immediately began raising a navy to assault Dragonstone, the location of the Dany-pregnant Rhaella and Viserys. Likewise, Ned tells the KG at the ToJ that he had assumed they were at Dragonstone with the Queen, which means he must have been surprised by the KG presence at the Tower. His information was solely regarding the whereabouts of Lyanna.

This sounds a lot like a trap to me. Perhaps a Targ loyalist (a Tyrell or Redwyne?) told Ned where she was after their side lost Storm's End, but neglected to mention the KG as a trick to get Ned killed by them.

There are Howland's green dreams to consider, too. It's a scary thought though, for green dreams to lead you to a certain location without warning you that three of the biggest badasses on the entire continent are waiting for you when you get there.[/quote]
I don't know why but I never thought that a person "in the know" revealed the location of Lyanna, since then the Kingsguard presence would have been known, but rather that it was a greenseer thing. That would also add to the logic of Eddard Stark only bringing six friends to "free" his sister from a tower deep within enemy territory. What could anyone have told Ned about the situation at the ToJ that it would be better to come in a small party and risk defeat along the way? On the other hand I can hear a green dream saying that seven must go to the ToJ!

[israfel070]

[quote name='Martin's Ghost' post='1699068' date='Feb 24 2009, 23.44']I don't know why but I never thought that a person "in the know" revealed the location of Lyanna, since then the Kingsguard presence would have been known, but rather that it was a greenseer thing. That would also add to the logic of Eddard Stark only bringing six friends to "free" his sister from a tower deep within enemy territory. What could anyone have told Ned about the situation at the ToJ that it would be better to come in a small party and risk defeat along the way? On the other hand I can hear a green dream saying that seven must go to the ToJ![/quote]
I think Ned brought a limited number of people because he was the only person who was aware that Lyanna had willingly gone off on a love affair. That could have been hugely damaging in many ways. First they risked losing the support of any Houses who had joined the Rebellion because of Rhaegar's "kidnapping and rape" of a noblewoman of one of the Great Houses. It also would have broken Robert, emotionally. And on the chance that Lyanna had conceived in her year at the Tower, that knowledge risked Robert murdering Lyanna's child as a Targaryen "dragonspawn." So Ned was extremely discreet in who would realize this at the Tower. Also, he seems to have been unaware of the KG presence, so he probably didn't expect any resistance when he got there. I don't think enemy territory had much to do with that decision. And hey, the Tower was only a short ride from the seat of House Dayne, who are very friendly to Ned :)

[Gilgafresh the Bling]

[quote name='Shewoman' post='1698662' date='Feb 24 2009, 17.05']Greycox, where did Ashara run into Ned to tell him this? He was a general under Robert, so I doubt that he was spending much time during the war in Dorne or Kings Landing (the two main sites we associate with Ashara--along with Harrenhal). Arthur was apparently stationed at the KoJ for a time. We don't know that Ashara and Lyanna were friends. Since the Daynes were Targaryen supporters and, if Lyanna was installed at the Tower of Joy, it was probably to keep any secrets she might have safe, [i]would [/i]Ashara have outed her and Rhaegar?[/quote]
Is a Ned/Ashara meeting at King’s Landing possible? We know her connection to Elia, and from the SSM, that she wasn’t nailed to a floor in Starfall, so might it be possible that she was at KL during the sack? Either by choice in support of Elia or by force through Aerys’ wishes? Or, even by choice on a more… eh… clandestine mission? ;) If she was there during the sack I could see a situation where a Ned/Ashara conversation could have taken place. Pure speculation, no evidence, etc. and possibly already discredited, but the only other possibility I see is a Storm’s End meeting, and that theory might be more plausible.

Why and how would she have come to know anything about Lyanna and the TOJ in the first place? Did Rhaegar always trust her with the knowledge? Did Arthur tell her when she delivered Wylla to the TOJ? ;) Did Elia tell her in confidence as she was revealing her husband’s plan for the third head? ;) Hmmm… no clue. There’s so much we don’t know about Ashara, but she seems but a couple of degrees separated from anyone and everyone connected with the TOJ. I think assuming Ashara as the one who revealed its location to Ned creates the possibility for a grander conspiracy and might help support many theories out there… cracked, logically valid, or otherwise.

Would Ashara have outed her and Rhaegar? Yes. I think she would, but maybe only to Ned. And only after it was obvious that the end was near or at hand (works in both the KL & Storm’s End scenarios). I suppose an argument exists that she did it to spite the dead prince, and his plan, and all the death and misery it had caused (i.e. “for Elia/Dorne”). I agree that it would be peculiar for Ashara to send Ned to the TOJ if she knew that her brother was there. Either way Ashara is conspicuously mysterious, and conveniently connected to many questions (and even more theories) surrounding the TOJ. In addition to that of Howland’s, I think knowing Ashara’s story might be knowing The Story; about both the TOJ, and any and all babies that were in the vicinity at the time, and it’s probably why we know next to nothing of her story… yet.

[Happy Ent]

By the way, let me correct myself. In fact, allow me to let Jojen correct me:
[quote][ Bran, to Jojen: ] “You’re a greenseer.”
“No,” said Jojen, “only a boy who dreams. The greenseers were more than that. They were wargs as well, as you are, and the greatest of them could wear the skins of any beast that flies or swims or crawls, and could look through the eyes of the weirwoods as well, and see the truth that lies beneath the world. [...]”[/quote]
So Jojen doesn’t see himself as a greenseer. A greenseer is more, and also a warg. So – contradicting what I said upthread – greenseering and warging are not exclusive.

[israfel070]

[quote name='Happy Ent' post='1699032' date='Feb 24 2009, 22.32']But maybe I’m missing something. Could you point me to evidence that Crannogmen don’t warg?[/quote]
"To me the gods gave the green dreams, and to you . . . you could be more than me, Bran. You are the winged wolf, and there is no saying how far and high you might fly . . . if you had someone to teach you. [b]How can I help you master a gift I do not understand?[/b] We remember the First Men in the Neck, and the children of the forest who were their friends . . . but so much is forgotten, and so much we never knew.”
“I want to fly,” he told them. “Please. Take me to the crow.”

An interesting tidbit from the Knight of the Laughing Tree story:
"And so the little crannogman’s prayer was answered . . . by the green men, or the old gods, or the children of the forest, who can say?” Jojen makes a clear distinction between these powers in the North and their magical ability.