Theory about the Tower of Joy...

[Happy Ent]

Israfel, I understand that [i]Jojen[/i] isn’t a warg. But you said that crannogmen don’t have wargs. That’s a much stronger statement, and one I think is wrong.

[Shewoman]

Greycox, Martin has said that Ashara was one of Elia's ladies-in-waiting in the early years of the Elia/Rhaegar marriage. I'm not sure when they got married, but I don't think the time around the Sack of KL was still "early years."

I'm a bit confused at the suggestion that Wylla might have told Ned where Lyanna was. I think a wetnurse was likely to have been on the staff at the Tower of Joy and that that's how Ned first knew Wylla. But it seems to me that if she was in the same location as Lyanna, then Ned wouldn't have met her until he found his sister.

Israfel, I don't see why it's an assumption to believe that Ashara would have heard of Ned's marriage. It was a marriage specifically designed to create an alliance against the Targaryens, to whom the Daynes gave their loyalty. I think that Aerys would have made sure that Targ loyalists knew about it as soon as possible in order to be prepared. Martin has said that the war lasted about a year, maybe two. It seems unlikely to me that the Daynes would not have heard about this for that long. Ashara's brother was one of Aerys' KG; he could also have been a conduit for the news.

And what was Ned doing during that period? Was he still writing her love letters, professing loyalty, etc.? That doesn't sound like Ned to me. He strikes me as someone who would have considered it his duty to tell her the truth himself (this is the man, after all, who insisted on executing prisoners himself).

[Prince of the North]

[quote name='Happy Ent' post='1699123' date='Feb 25 2009, 03.11']By the way, let me correct myself. In fact, allow me to let Jojen correct me:

QUOTE
[ Bran, to Jojen: ] “You’re a greenseer.”
“No,” said Jojen, “only a boy who dreams. The greenseers were more than that. They were wargs as well, as you are, and the greatest of them could wear the skins of any beast that flies or swims or crawls, and could look through the eyes of the weirwoods as well, and see the truth that lies beneath the world. [...]”

So Jojen doesn’t see himself as a greenseer. A greenseer is more, and also a warg. So – contradicting what I said upthread – greenseering and warging are not exclusive.[/quote]
Thanks, HE! I thought I remembered something like this and now you've confirmed it for me :) I'm thinkin' Howland Reed [i]is[/i] a greenseer or, at least, can do many of things that greenseers supposedly can, right? :dunno:

[SFDanny]

[quote name='israfel070' post='1699065' date='Feb 25 2009, 03.38']Despite Ashara's evident suicide over a heartbreak from Ned, we know that the Daynes seem to have no problem with him and still call Edric by the nickname Ned. Edric was friendly and respectful to Arya rather than put-off by bad family feelings towards the Starks, and he talks of having been openly told the reason for his aunt's suicide. So there was no rift between them, even though he DID break Ashara's heart. I believe Ashara killed herself after his departure, not when he started knocking on the door. And I personally think that he explained to her that R+L=the baby in question, so your logic doesn't really present a problem to my personal stance- I was just pointing out several better reasons for her suicide and a few outright references that Ned was the cause, not Arthur. Sorry, I think there's enough evidence to call this one what it is.

It's still an assumption to say that Ashara heard about the marriage. If she did, she might not even believe it until she heard it from him. If she believed it 100% (which I doubt), she might dream up any numbers of solutions to the problem; Ned could send his wife away, Ned could live in KL or Starfall and still have a relationship with Ashara, he could ask his best friend the new King to give him a divorce now that he didn't need the Tully armies anymore, etc etc. Hearing something of that magnitude and accepting it are two totally separate things. I really don't think the other half of N+A would get that raven and say "Damn! Oh well. You win some, you lose some."[/quote]

As Shewoman also points out, it's not much of an assumption that Ashara had already heard about Ned and Cat's marriage. The alliance the marriage represents turns a minor rebellion into a full fledged civil war, so it's hard to see how Ashara didn't know. Yes, as I said she could have lived in a cave for the year of the rebellion, but barring that it's quite likely she knows. Which goes to the point of what was the cause of her apparent suicide? She has known for many months that Ned has married another woman, but hopes against hope that they will end up together despite that? Anything is possible, I suppose, but I find that scenario incredibly hard to believe. Unless Ashara has become mentally unbalanced from the news, many months before, it makes little to no sense. One doesn't have to accept your "win some, lose some" view of Ashara's reaction to the news of Ned's marriage to question the idea that many months after learning of it, it is the cause of her suicide.

That, of course, does not prove that Ashara is the source of Ned's information telling him about the Tower of Joy. As I've said, there are many possibilities, ranging from the unnamed guy who delivered supplies to the Tower, to the Lords besieging Storm's End, and including information from Varys, Ser Barristan, or a host of other sources. Ashara has to be part of that list, however, because Martin has told us she isn't "nailed down" in Starfall, and she has an obvious connection with the Tower through her brother and a reason, their romance, to tell Ned the information. The advantage to Ashara being the source is that it provides a very convincing reason for her suicide. I don't buy the story we have so far; it paints a picture of Ashara that I find extremely far fetched, and I admittedly am looking for a better explanation.

[Gilgafresh the Bling]

Shewoman - I wasn’t suggesting that Wylla told Ned where Lyanna was. I’m sorry if I was confusing, but I was still discussing Ashara as Ned’s informant. I also think a wetnurse was likely to have been on the staff at the TOJ, but I was suggesting a pre-war Dayne/Wylla connection, and offered the possibility that Ashara herself supplied/delivered Wylla to Lyanna at the TOJ (possibly at Rhaegar’s request), and this is how she (Ashara) knew. This may assume a grand (RLAAW and even E, and eventually N) conspiracy, and while debatable, I haven’t read anything that refutes it.

A very messy and highly speculative idea, but Ned had to find out about the TOJ from someone. If it was Ashara then we not only have to discover the when and where of her telling Ned, but why she knew about the TOJ in the first place, and why she would tell Ned knowing what might happen. I like the greenseer angle too; perhaps he needed no one new to tell him the who/what/where because Howland had already foreseen it and promptly relayed that info to Ned.

Like SFDanny, I’m intrigued by the possibility of Ashara’s connection to the TOJ, but I’m not fully convinced of anything that’s been offered so far. There’s something there, but we’re missing A LOT of information. Hell, we can’t even be sure that Ashara committed suicide. Again, I get the feeling that knowing Ashara’s story would help to clear up the TOJ enigma, and in the end, when we know what transpired there I think Ashara will be in the picture.

[israfel070]

Hearing that the Tullys allied with Robert and hearing all the quid pro quo that preceded it are different things, also. You're making too many assumptions for my taste, and I really don't agree with your idea of how people handle hearing that kind of news. I think 99% of people would react the way I suggested.

[quote]to question the idea that many months after learning of it, it is the cause of her suicide.[/quote]
I don't believe that either, as you state it. What caused it was some personal interaction with Ned at Starfall which caused her to finally truly realize that she couldn't be with him. It Sank In when he talked to her in person.

Agree to disagree I guess, we're past the point of having evidence for our theories (or my actual evidence is being ignored :P)

[SFDanny]

[quote name='israfel070' post='1699515' date='Feb 25 2009, 13.58']Agree to disagree I guess, we're past the point of having evidence for our theories (or my actual evidence is being ignored :P)[/quote]

Sorry, did I miss something? I didn't mean to ignore your evidence. Most of this is speculation built on speculation, but if I missed something - which is always very possible - point it out, and I'd be glad to discuss it.

[Shewoman]

Israfel, what "actual evidence" have we ignored?

I think there has to be more to Eddard's relationship with the Daynes than we've been told. The fairly simple story we've heard--Ned took Arthur Dayne's sword back to Starfall to give to his family--doesn't explain to me, at least, the use of Edric Dayne's nickname "Ned." I'm having a hard time with the conversation that would have had to ensue: "I think our son needs a nickname, don't you?" "I agree. I've always been partial to the name "'Ned.'" What do you think of that?" "I think it's wonderful! What a touching way to honor the man who killed your brother!"

Meera implied in her story of Harrenhal that Ned and Ashara became friendly there. I wonder if Ned had had any other dealings with the Daynes before that--perhaps he and Ashara had encountered each other elsewhere earlier. The longer Ned and Ashara's relationship lasted, the more upset she was likely to have been by its ending. Ned's returning Arthur's sword is in character for him and was, I'm sure, much appreciated by the Daynes--but "at least he brought Arthur's sword back" doesn't sound like sufficient compensation for "He killed our son/brother."

Rhaegar and Lyanna have always seemed like the Doomed Couple of ASOIAF to me, but maybe Ned and Ashara win that title. Their families backed different sides in the war, which resulted in Ned's marrying a Tully instead of a Dayne. I wonder why Ned did that. Why were marriages (Lysa's and Jon Arryn's as well as Ned's and Cat's) considered necessary to confirm their opposition to Aerys? Did the Tullys think Jon A. and Ned wouldn't live up to their word to fight Aerys once they'd given it? Ned would surely have fought just as hard and well against the family he [probably] blamed for his much-loved sister's disappearance and the deaths of his father and brother without having had to marry someone to seal the deal. I wonder if any of his family knew that he and Ashara were interested in each other. Was Ned so dutiful that he wouldn't have even mentioned it? If that's the case and if Ashara ever knew it, that right there might have helped push her over the edge (if, in fact, she did suicide). If Ashara was willing to go against her family's long-term loyalty to the Targaryens in order to be with Ned, the knowledge that he didn't make any effort to fight for their right to be together would have been very painful. And if Ned didn't stand up for their relationship when the Tully/Stark marriage was being discussed, she may not have known it until he showed up with Dawn at war's end.

It would be interesting to know how she heard of that marriage. Did Ned, who considers it his duty to behead his prisoners himself, send her a letter? Did she hear of it through gossip? The manner of her learning this probably had some effect on the way she reacted to it.

[israfel070]

The statement of Ashara's sister to Edric that she killed herself because Ned broke her heart, rather than over Arthur's death as Danny is claiming. I quoted it upthread.

[Shewoman]

Allyria is the youngest of her generation of Daynes. She may not have any firsthand knowledge about the reason for her sister's suicide (although I'm still willing to believe Ashara didn't kill herself).

I have a hard time seeing Ashara suiciding over Arthur's death unless she feels implicated in it (as she well might if her directions to help Ned find Lyanna led to Ned's killing Arthur). It seems to me that it would take more than the death of a brother who was a warrior to make her take that step.

[punkypickett]

[quote name='Happy Ent' post='1698353' date='Feb 24 2009, 13.15']QUOTE
Bran was almost certain he had never heard this story. "Did he have green dreams like Jojen?"
"No," said Meera, "but he could breathe mud and run on leaves, and change earth to water and water to earth with no more than a whispered word. He could talk to trees and weave words and make castles appear and disappear."[/quote]

So this is entirely on my speculation and common sense (no hard evidence here!) but...
Based on Happy Ent's quote above, it appears Howland Reed wouldn't have been able to reveal Lyanna's location to Ned because he doesn't have the green dreams that Jojen does. So I think that should count him out for being the person who revealed L's location.

With HR being excluded, I'd like to look at the places Ned was leading up to the ToJ to try and eliminate some of the when's and who's of this question:

1. TRIDENT - Ned and Robert were at the Trident, but Robert gets injured so Ned runs ahead to King's Landing.
---- If Ned found out at the Trident I think the most likely sources would be either Rhaegar himself or one of the KG. If Rhaegar spilled the beans, it'd most likely be to Robert who wouldn't have paused at King's Landing on his way to rescuing his love. If Barristan told I think it would make sense that he'd tell Ned, so-- at least up to this point-- that theory could hold.

2. KING'S LANDING - Ned gets there first, and Robert meets up with him there soon after. They get in a fight about Elia's children so Ned storms off to Storm's End to lift the siege alone.
---- This is based on my ideas of Ned's personality, but I'd think that if Ned discovered either at King's Landing or previously (at the Trident) he would not have gone to Storms End. Certainly lifting the siege is one of the "general's" responsibilities, but if Ned knew about Lyanna I think he'd give this duty to someone else, probably Jon Arryn or Hoster Tully (if he was there). I can't imagine Ned delaying finding his beloved sister by going to Storm's End first, and fighting in another battle that could have taken months for all he knew. So I think that eliminates Barristan and anyone from KL.

3. STORM'S END - Ned gets to Storm's End and lifts the siege. Some unknown amount of time later he goes to the ToJ to find Lyanna
---- Here I think is the most likely place where Ned would learn of Lyanna's location. I have no idea who might've told him, but Storm's End puts him closer to the ToJ so it could be conceivable that either someone from SE told him, or maybe even someone from the ToJ rode over to SE when they heard Ned was there to let him know about Lyanna. This would leave our options as either Tyrells, Redwynes, maybe Wylla, the 3 KG at ToJ, or someone else we don't know about yet. Or maybe someone from Dorne. Maybe SFDanny and Greycox are right and Ashara went to SE when she heard Ned was there, told him about Lyanna's whereabouts, went home thinking their reunion went well, only to have him show up later w/ his sister dead, her brother dead, and her feeling responsible for it.

Honestly when I started mapping this out I thought it would lead me to Wylla being the source, but now that I've finished I'm starting to agree w/ SFDanny and Greycox's theory that it was Ashara who told, but in Storm's End, not KL.

[SFDanny]

punkypickett, I tried to do the [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=14344&view=findpost&p=768260"]same[/url] a few years back. Notice my conclusions have changed a little since then - especially the ruling out Ashara as a source if Ned learns it at Storm's End. I like your thinking, and not just because of the nice words about Greycox and me.

[The_BlauerDragon]

[quote name='SFDanny' post='1700122' date='Feb 25 2009, 18.25']punkypickett, I tried to do the [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=14344&view=findpost&p=768260"]same[/url] a few years back. Notice my conclusions have changed a little since then - especially the ruling out Ashara as a source if Ned learns it at Storm's End. I like your thinking, and not just because of the nice words about Greycox and me.[/quote]
I have to admit, it is an intriguing line of thought. I wonder how far along Ashara (or Wylla) was in her pregnancy at that time? Is it possible that the information was given to Ned by accident? It would be torturous to have to try and keep such information from the person you love, and all that. Can you imagine? Knowing where your lover's only sister was being held captive and repeatedly raped... and having to keep it a secret either out of loyalty to the crown, or because your brother was the guard? That would be HELL! Also, Is it possible that Jon was actually born at SE then? If so, could there be any particular foreshadowing or meritable information that could be gleaned from that bit of information?

[TDH523]

Ashara told Ned herself or had someone else tell him his sister was at ToJ. She did not know that Arthur was present at the tower. After all Ned thought he was at Dragonstone. As for the fight, well 2 to 1 odds in a sword fight with skilled veterans on both sides are not very good. That way they invented guns. TO even the odds. Once Ashara heard that she had unintentional killed her brother, she takes a long walk on a short cliff. One reason she may have let Ned in on the whereabouts of Lyanna was she knew she was with child and she was getting Ned back for breaking off their romance. Plus what a good way to split the rebellion then to show that Lyanna was not raped and Rhaegar had father a child with her. How does Rhaegar get his hands on Lyanna? How do we know she did not want to be with him to being with?

[SFDanny]

[quote name='the Blauer Dragon' post='1700164' date='Feb 25 2009, 21.48']I have to admit, it is an intriguing line of thought. I wonder how far along Ashara (or Wylla) was in her pregnancy at that time? Is it possible that the information was given to Ned by accident? It would be torturous to have to try and keep such information from the person you love, and all that. Can you imagine? Knowing where your lover's only sister was being held captive and repeatedly raped... and having to keep it a secret either out of loyalty to the crown, or because your brother was the guard? That would be HELL! Also, Is it possible that Jon was actually born at SE then? If so, could there be any particular foreshadowing or meritable information that could be gleaned from that bit of information?[/quote]

I think you broke my sarcasm meter with that post.

No, it's not possible Jon was born at Storm's End, at least not when Ned and his men are there or by stretching the story beyond belief. If he had, there would be no rumors about who Jon's mom was, there would be known fact. The same could be said if a child was born to Wylla or Ashara before Ned arrived. The forces of the besieging army would know that one of them was pregnant, would know one of them gave birth, and would know if Ned takes the child. Jon is born somewhere in secret, no matter who his mother is. I think we can say Jon and Ned meet up sometime after Ned leaves Storm's End and before Ned arrives in Starfall. All of which falls nicely within the "eight or nine months" difference between when Jon is born and when Daenerys is born "nine moons" after the Sack of King's Landing. Sort of looks like all factors point to the Tower of Joy, doesn't it?

[israfel070]

Oh thread, I wish I knew how to quit you.

[bacchys]

[quote name='israfel070' post='1698729' date='Feb 24 2009, 20.57']Really? You think a woman would be more heartbroken by her brother's death than the marriage of her lover to another woman? Not that these relationships are set in stone, but the regular theory seems MUCH more plausible to me than the "my brother died so I have to kill myself" line of thought.[/quote]
No. I think she would be more despairing if she thought she caused her brother's death than losing Eddard Stark to Catelyn Tully.

Ashara- like Catelyn- is a noblewoman in a culture where noblewomen are married off by the head of the family for political reasons. Her whole life, she would have been raised with the understanding that her marriage was not going to be her choice. While marrying Eddard might have been possible- even probable- when they met at Harrenhall, there's no mention of a betrothement or anything remotely like that in the story. Meanwhile, that Eddard would have to marry his older brother's betrothed on the event of that brother's death can hardly have been a shock to her: it reads like something expected. It was, after all, Eddard's duty to marry Catelyn.

I don't know that is the reason she committed suicide. In truth, I don't even know that she did commit suicide. We haven't heard from a single person that they saw her body, after all. But, assuming she did commit suicide, and that her reasons involved the events at the ToJ, it seems plausible to believe that it's because she had some involvement in causing those events to occur.

[bacchys]

[quote name='Happy Ent' post='1699013' date='Feb 25 2009, 01.56']But we [i]do[/i] have a description of the Little Crannogman (Howland), at it all but flat-out tells us that he is a great spell-caster who knows “all the magic” of the crannogmen, not a good fighter, and spends a Winter at the Isle of Faces, probably the most magicky place south of the Wall. So it’s [i]at least as parsimonious[/i] to assume that he uses magic. Just as we would expect Bran or Mel or Varamyr Sixskins to use magic in a fight.

And since we know that even an untrained warg like Bran [i]can[/i] control other people (Bran does it with Hodor and doesn’t need [i]any[/i] instruction), it would be well aligned with the books to assume that Howland can control Arthur. Not as well as he would be able to control the lackwit Hodor, but maybe enough to miss a single parry at an opportune moment.

On the other hand, Dayne would have cut down a weak, little net-weilding spearman with his left “while taking a piss with his right.” A warg he couldn’t defend against.

So I find both ideas equally plausible. Howland Superwarg has at least as good textual evidence, and I like it better because it’s fun.[/quote]
IIRC, we get a list of Crannogmen magic, and I don't recall warging being a part of it.

If it was warging involved, I doubt he had to control Dayne. Just disorient him. Having another mind suddenly poking around in your own would doubtless be enough to cause one to miss a parry or three, I'm sure.

Even so, I don't much care for it when a non-magical explanation fits as well. I wouldn't sell the net-wielding spearman short, especially if Dayne is already facing a Stark with Ice in his hands. A net from the blindside would doubtless be as effective as warging.

[Happy Ent]

[quote name='bacchys' post='1700613' date='Feb 26 2009, 08.34']IIRC, we get a list of Crannogmen magic, and I don't recall warging being a part of it.[/quote]
We get a list of what greenseers could do from Jojen, and warging is very much part of that. So you’d need to argue that Crannogmen can’t be greenseers.

[quote]A net from the blindside would doubtless be as effective as warging.[/quote]
If by “doubtless” you mean “possibly”, I’d agree. But we can assume that Howland is a magician, and we’ve textual evidence for him [i]not being a fighter[/i] (though Meera learned her weapons from him, so he can’t be completely helpless).

And since when does Arthur Dayne let himself be blindsided by an enemy? Standing up to the Sword of the Morning in hand-to-hand combat, no matter how many mediocre swordsman you have at your side, seems to be the worst thing you can do. Surprising him by magic is a much better strategy. So assuming Howland has [i]some[/i] magic (and we can be very sure of that, can’t we?), he would be better off using that. The onus of the argument is on those who believe that Howland can cast spells, yet chooses to come within a sword thrust’s distance of the greatest knight alive.

[israfel070]

another of howland's abilities was turning earth to water and vice versa, right? Or am I thinking of a different Crannogman?

A little presto-chango like that with the floor Arthur was standing on would be quite enough to give Ned an opening, I'm sure