Minigame 64.5: a very Supernatural minigame

[TheMalcolm]

After 3.5 hours of playing live mafia I feel ill and unable to think properly. (OT: pinguin role is much more wierd than anything we have tried.)

Mexal's attitude have changed again... and hisartumentation make sense, but he still doesn't give us any alternative to lynch. I won't vote Fireball today.

[Mexal]

After 3.5 hours of playing live mafia I feel ill and unable to think properly. (OT: pinguin role is much more wierd than anything we have tried.)

Mexal's attitude have changed again... and hisartumentation make sense, but he still doesn't give us any alternative to lynch. I won't vote Fireball today.

Why?

And who else can I give you? I don't believe there are any FM left and I think the most likely OC is Fireball. What more do you want from me?

[Whiskeyjack]

I would prefer to think that there are independent killing factions, like maybe two competing SK roles that kill on alternating nights. Between the 2 heals and the 2 lynches, maybe we took out one SK, and the other SK kills on even nights?

Thats actually a possibility too. Somebody should try to analyze it further. If its the case, then my guess is the FM who kills on odds nights is dead. Either it was Masonity (dead both night 1 and 3) or it was TMW (blocked by healer night 1, dead night 3). And the FM who kills on even nights is alive, but was blocked by the heaer on night 2.

So the question you should try to answer is who would want to kill me on night 2? I'd suggest that it would be a bad move for anybody who I didn't suspect. But I don't have time to think more about it right now.

And the real problem is that we can come up with all of these possibilities and then figure out who makes sense as evil for each one, but we have no way of knowing which one is right. Very frustrating.

That's annoying. I believe LC and don't think you were converted or killed. But you not being around blows.

Sorry man, taking my parents out to lunch and then to a movie, for Mothers Day. Then going to look at a few houses, because my wife and I are looking to move soon. Just a really busy day for me.

ETA - And now I'm leaving.

[TheMalcolm]

Why?

Perhaps because I am tunnel-visioned also. Or perhaps because I want you to stop being tunnel-visioned.

During all the game, you never had any other strong suspicion but Fireball, and it worries me.

I mostly ignore your defence, since I know you are almost as good in messing with the facts as WJ. But I just see that you look very unnatural. It's true that you actions as guilty are unlogical in a standart setting... but we don't have a standart setting, it's almost evident now.

[Mexal]

Perhaps because I am tunnel-visioned also. Or perhaps because I want you to stop being tunnel-visioned.

During all the game, you never had any other strong suspicion but Fireball, and it worries me.

I mostly ignore your defence, since I know you are almost as good in messing with the facts as WJ. But I just see that you look very unnatural. It's true that you actions as guilty are unlogical in a standart setting... but we don't have a standart setting, it's almost evident now.

Then tell me what setting they would be logical in?

And uh, I'm posting my reasoning for everything. I've broken down every fucking player and where they fit in to the theories. The only one I haven't touched on is the dueling SKs cause I didn't think about it.

I'm not going to suspect someone I don't suspect just to make you happy that I'm no longer suspecting Fireball.

Give me one good reason that Fireball could NOT be guilty? Please, just one. Because all I see you doing is saying "You're going after Fireball therefore I won't vote him" instead of actually analyzing anything. I spent hours this morning going through shit and all you can say is that I'm tunnel visioned? Analyzing the fucking game is not tunnel-visioned. When others don't work, you narrow down to who does and Fireball does. What is so hard to understand about that?

[TheMalcolm]

Then tell me what setting they would be logical in?

If I knew this, I'd already solve this game. :)

Give me one good reason that Fireball could NOT be guilty?

He can't be guilty in a standart setting, because he had no reason to target WJ.

Now, since we know the setting is most likely very non-standard, he could be guilty. Admitted, I was too hurry when saying I won't lynch nim today. But I still need something more to switch.

You say he fits CB profile, ok. But am not sure if CB works in the setting we have.

[Mexal]

If I knew this, I'd already solve this game. :)

He can't be guilty in a standart setting, because he had no reason to target WJ.

Now, since we know the setting is most likely very non-standard, he could be guilty. Admitted, I was too hurry when saying I won't lynch nim today. But I still need something more to switch.

You say he fits CB profile, ok. But am not sure if CB works in the setting we have.

What setting do we have? I broke down the possibilities minus the duel SK theory. If we have duel SKs, then I have no idea what to think because no one really makes sense for it. I've broken down why certain people make sense for certain settings and why things they've said or done have cleared them in my own eyes. Why don't you start commenting on those posts and start trying to work it out with me?

And where would I fit in? I don't and you know that. Yet you're still willing to sacrifice me for what? Pride?

Oh and just for the record, if Fireball is the OC and he was assuming there was FM in this game as well (cause well, there is no information and we don't know what he received in his PM) then the CB would apply as he'd be assuming (whether it was or not) that it was a 3 faction game.

Come on Malc, think. You're better than this.

[Fireball07]

Does someone want to claim BP?

If there isn't a BP, none of this makes sense. I really think that there is some sort of catch to this game and it's not something like a cult.

If there is a cult...WJ would be the logical first recruit. Perhaps Mex, Malc or Piper then.

If there is FM, I really find it hard to believe that they would miss 3 times. The only other explanation is some really elaborate ruse where they CI themselves first before they start killing. But that's not effective at all and no one would do that here.

As for BPs, I'm not one, I'm assuming Mex isn't, Mina isn't, WJ isn't, Malc isn't. They've all been on since we started talking about that.

Slick and LC both have a role if we can believe them. That leaves Halo and Piper. Please claim if you are BP.

Mex'a arguments are good, but if we are still looking for FM, I can't really see any other viable option bar Halo. And if I had to choose, it would definitely have to be Mex over Halo.

As for cult, it could be anybody. I actually wouldn't know where to start.

Are there any special terms for a cult game or is it just "wipe out the cult"?

[Mexal]

Mex'a arguments are good, but if we are still looking for FM, I can't really see any other viable option bar Halo. And if I had to choose, it would definitely have to be Mex over Halo.

Please tell me how I fit as an FM.

[Fireball07]

Please tell me how I fit as an FM.

I don't know. But I can't see how anyone else fits either.

[Mexal]

I don't know. But I can't see how anyone else fits either.

Ok. So then what conclusion can you draw from that?

[Fireball07]

Ok. So then what conclusion can you draw from that?

Cult?

The whole game was a hoax with no FM?

Evil mod?

Slick's an insane cop/finder?

[TheMalcolm]

What setting do we have? I broke down the possibilities minus the duel SK theory.

You can't exclude all the possibilities. What if we have a scenario where every person targeted by killers stays leaving for 2-3 more days and dies only after that?

What if we have a killer who has a limited number of kills and is able to use all them at once? We've seen such thing in some game.

And where would I fit in? I don't and you know that. Yet you're still willing to sacrifice me for what? Pride?

For you being extremely wierd. I'd give Piper or Scrahan a free pass in such situation, since they are officially crazy. But for you, it's OOC.

[Mexal]

You can't exclude all the possibilities. What if we have a scenario where every person targeted by killers stays leaving for 2-3 more days and dies only after that?

What if we have a killer who has a limited number of kills and is able to use all them at once? We've seen such thing in some game.

For you being extremely wierd. I'd give Piper or Scrahan a free pass in such situation, since they are officially crazy. But for you, it's OOC.

Uh ok. I'm weird therefore I'm to be lynched. Great.

And I've never been in a game like those situations but if you want to consider them, so be it. I guess it's possible however unlikely.

[TheMalcolm]

Anyway, I'll miss the end of day, since it will be about 6am for me and I can't imagine myself to get up that early.

I'll leave my vote where it is.

I am not leaving immedeately, but in next 10-20-30 minutes, so if something great would happen during this time, I might react.

[LCOTNW]

I am going to go with my theory of competing killers on alternate nights. To me, that is no more preposterous than a cult game with no warning, and no clear anti-cult roles. If I am wrong, and there is a cult, I don't care if we lose to the cult under those circumstances because I think we had little chance of winning. Maybe Aly anticipated me saving my heals so that we would have no NK on N1 and N2 and my heal actions just got in the way of our realizing that there was a cult. Who knows? If we are in a cult game, it is broken at this point as far as I am concerned.

So... alternating SKs. Assuming we already got one and the remaining SK kills on even nights, then we shoud definitely have a NK tonight. I should also caveat that the SKs could still have symps, or that it could be one pair of FM versus one SK. They could still go on alternate nights with the SK eliminated as the odd-night killer.

Who can be the remaining SK or FM pair? The good news, from my POV, there are only 8 possibilities :P :

WJ - Unlikely, since I do still believe that we must have a finder and the result was innocent. Plus since I healed WJ on both N1 and N2, the SK would have to be someone else in order for the heal to have blocked the NK.

Mexal - Under the dueling SK theory, I am having a harder time seeing mex as a killer. Symp still remains a good possibility. Please don't ask who he might be symping. It could be several players. Mexal is right that you can't really defend against an accusation of symping in general, but at the same time he has been a pretty significant distraction if he is truly innocent. He was sure that WJ was guilty, which is a sure way to start a controversy, but that got derailed pretty quickly with the role reveals. Now he is pretty sure that Fireball is guilty but his argument was more convincing when WJ might have been seen as potentially guilty and averting the lynch on D1. Overall, this is not really the behavior of a killer, especially a SK who has to be extra careful not to draw too much focus. He could still very well be guilty. If everyone else thinks that we are dealing with a cult, or they think Mex is guilty for some other reason, I am okay with sending him to SH.

Halo - Could be a killer or a symp. The evidence of halo's innocence is thin, but it is there. He was the first to suggest the possibility of a cult, but frankly, it probably occurred to everyone else as well when there wasn't a NK. He has not pushed the cult idea which is good because I think the whole cult thing is probably a distraction that may be fed by evil players keeping it alive.

Piper - Has been a lot less active in this game than I expected. It could be that he is trying to fly low enough to go unnoticed. The whole thing about "knowing" that Malc and Mina are CI (and vice versa) is not overwhelming evidence of their innocence. Of these three I would say that Piper is the most scummy.

Mina - Hasn't really done anything to make me think she is evil. It occurred to me that a new player as a SK might be a little unsure how to play that strategy, and might be more likely to withhold a NK for fear of creating connections. Her deal with the whole angels/RI thing seems pretty genuine to me, so I am inclined to believe Mina is most innocent out of Mina Piper and Malc.

Fireball - I am half ready to lynch Fireball just to see who Mexal would decide to focus on tomorrow. One thing that I will say in Mexal's defense is that lynching Fireball may be easier than lynching me or Slick or WJ in this game, but it would also reduce the number of players that seemed to be relatively PI on Day 3. If Mina, Malc, Piper, WJ, Slick, Halo, and I all bought into each other's innocence, that only left ML, Mexal, Fireball and TMW as potential lynch targets. Mexal objected to the lynch of TMW, but at the same time was pushing the lynch of Fireball who did not have convincing evidence of guilt or innocence from my pov. To believe that Mexal had no choice but to push Fireball again in light of ML's reveal makes sense in trying to buy one more day, but in the larger picture, if Mexal had been successful, today would have been even worse for him. ML's modkill drives this point home even further. We could lynch Mexal and Fireball on successive days now and still have one lynch left in case we are wrong about it. It just doesn't make sense to me that an evil Mexal would push this hard for a Fireball lynch. I am not totally convinced of this, but I am having doubts.

Slick - I tend to believe that he is innocent with the whole finder result, etc already stated.

The Malcolm - Would be an interesting coincidence since he was the SK in the last Aly game. He has been playing his cards close to the vest. Sometimes he does that, sometimes he doesn't. When he plays the more bullying direct style, he seems to be more innocent. When he plays more reserved, I think it can go either way. The evidence of Malc's innocence is thin, like Piper's, but it is propped up by Slick's result. If I believe Slick, I have to believe Malc. I am choosing to believe Slick.

So, at the end of all this, I am thinking that the potential evil(s) are likely to be among: Halo, Piper, Fireball and Mexal. I am so worn down on thinking about this game that I would happily lynch any of these 4 just to move the game ahead. I am hoping that we have a couple of lynches to spare at this point to find the killer. I admit that I am starting to think it less likely that Mexal is the killer, but I am okay lynching him as a symp, or an innocent who is impeding the advancement of the game through the distraction (which may not be all his fault). Maybe that sounds scummy from me, but I don't care. We have 9 players left which means 4 potential lynches in a standard lynch/NK pattern. Who knows if we can ever expect a NK in this game, but I would be okay teeing up Fireball, then Mexal, then Piper, and then Halo for those 4 lynches with the concession that NK choices or additional information might change this. I am okay if everyone wants to lynch Mexal first instead. Just over 4.5 hours left to go.

Anyone got any bright ideas?

[Mexal]

Impeding the advancement of the game? Oh fuck off. I didn't spend all that time analyzing shit to impeded the advancement of the game. I did it to help.

And I'm sorry, but if we have competing SKs, how the fuck am I a symp? Do you think that each SK has a symp?

God, the inability for people to actually think astounds me.

[Fireball07]

The only thing about the dual serial killers is that we have no way of knowing whether that is right or not. There are loads of other possibilities as well.

I dislike me being used as bait just to see who Mexal would go after? Couldn't you just ask him his second preferred target?

[Fireball07]

Impeding the advancement of the game? Oh fuck off. I didn't spend all that time analyzing shit to impeded the advancement of the game. I did it to help.

And I'm sorry, but if we have competing SKs, how the fuck am I a symp? Do you think that each SK has a symp?

God, the inability for people to actually think astounds me.

LC, he's right. SK's wouldn't have a symp, that makes no sense at all. Mex could be a SK but that would mean that he went after WJ which according to him is OOC. Although, going by the consensus of the others, his whole playstyle is OOC, which is why they seem to be voting him.

[Mexal]

Oh and one more thing.

You guys seem to criticize me for deducting that Fireball is evil yet no one is willing to go after anyone else. You just wrote up a huge post saying you'd vote four people. Great.

But no one else has. Everyone has been so fixated on me that they haven't actually thought anything through, even when I break it down for them. It's so frustrating.

So maybe you're right. Maybe the mere presence of me is detrimental no matter how much work I do to help. Just lynch me. I can't be bothered anymore. We obviously don't deserve to win.