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2nd Revolution in Iran?


Ser Scot A Ellison

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More news of the world seen only at twitter:

Iran shuts down Al Arabiya offices in Tehran. http://www.alarabiya.net/ar...

24 minutes ago from web

Huffpost reports: Unconfirmed-A Basiji Compound in Northern Tehran has been captured by the protesters (via email from Iran) #iranelection

26 minutes ago from web

Mousavi arrested. Iranian army says it won't fight its own people. NBC offices raided. Tanks on Tehran's streets. REVOLUTION. #iranelection

30 minutes ago from web

http://twitter.com/fatemehf

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More news of the world seen only at twitter:

http://twitter.com/fatemehf

This was reported in Norwegian media. Strangely enough the coverage of the situation in Iran have been quite extensive both by printed media and broadcast, starting about a week before the election. On Saturday morning I was listening to the radio about clashes outside Mousavi's HQ but had real trouble finding links to English speaking media to bring to this thread. Earlier today a Norwegian journalist was arrested together with his driver outside the HQ at the announced 12:30 appearance by Mousavi.

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Huffington Post has a link to #IranElection on twitter here.

I wish some of this stuff could be confirmed. There are reports of Lebanese soldiers being bused in to act as peacekeepers now.

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Also, from Sullivan's Blog:

We have information that Ahmadinejad is thinking about changing the Constitution to allow the president to serve more than two terms, to make his presidency more or less permanent. Of course, there are strong voices in the establishment that will challenge him. It is not clear that he and the Sepah (the Revolutionary Guard) will be strong enough to overcome them. But there will be clashes over this.

This seems familiar....

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The Obama administration is in a tough spot here and I'm not sure what they can do, but he has to come out unequivocally condemning this election and must declare the Iranian regime illegitimate. People are getting beaten to death in broad daylight.

Students are saying they are doomed if Obama accepts this election result.

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Here, btw, are the completely unreliable and rumorish "real results" of the election, if your interested. Their veracity is, obviously, in question, but it's kinda interesting if nothing else:

Here's what Kos Diarist Electronic Maji is hearing from Iranian journalist friends under lockdown:

Unofficial news - reports leaked results from Interior Ministry:

Eligible voters: 49,322,412

Votes cast: 42,026,078

Spoilt votes: 38,716

Mir Hossein Mousavi: 19,075,623

Mehdi Karoubi: 13,387,104

Mahmoud Ahmadi-nejad (incumbent): 5,698,417

Mohsen Rezaei (conservative candidate): 3,754,218

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The Obama administration is in a tough spot here and I'm not sure what they can do, but he has to come out unequivocally condemning this election and must declare the Iranian regime illegitimate. People are getting beaten to death in broad daylight.

Students are saying they are doomed if Obama accepts this election result.

Obama's made pretty much the only good move right now. Make some noise about the election being "questionable" and say little else.

Any overt moves, on the US's part especially, will only help Ahmadinejad. The Iranian people are, understandably, extremely mistrustful of the US and anything that even smells like Western interference only strengthens Ahmadinejad's position.

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Also, there's alot of reports of the Iranian Government bringing in Lebanese "Police" Forces (I'm pretty sure it's Hezbollah guys, whatever they qualify as) through their alliance with Hezbollah to supplement their own forces, who may be leery of attacking their own people.

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More Twitter-rumor-mill stuff:http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/13/iran-demonstrations-viole_n_215189.html

2:48 PM ET -- Report: Former head of Revolutionary Guards contests election. This could be huge, from ABC's Lara Setrakian on Twitter: "Rezaei, the conservative candidate and fmr head of Revolutionary Guards, apparently publishes open letter strongly contesting iran election."

An informed Iranian-American tells me, "If the former head of Revolutionary Guards is saying it's illegitimate, it's definitely a crack in the armor because even if he's not in, his former staff are still there."

Also, apparently 120 odd professors at Tehran University have resigned in a protest over this whole thing.

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No permission for tomorrow's demonstration. State media said it's illegal. #iranelection #cnnfail

Mousavi is going ahead with the demonstration with/WO permission. #iranelection #cnnfail

Also, rumors of people being tasered/beaten in the streets by the police/secret police types and dragged away.

Finally:

Apparently mowj.ir, which is said to be the Mousavi campaign's unofficial website, have posted what they believe to be the true vote total. This is different from other numbers that have been posted:

* Mousavi – 21.3 million (57.2%)

* Ahmadinejad – 10.5 million (28%)

* Rezai – 2.7 million (7.2%)

* Karroubi – 2.2 million (6%)

It's not at all clear how Mousavi could know what the real vote totals were, though. This may just be a way to garner support.

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The Obama administration is in a tough spot here and I'm not sure what they can do, but he has to come out unequivocally condemning this election and must declare the Iranian regime illegitimate. People are getting beaten to death in broad daylight.

Students are saying they are doomed if Obama accepts this election result.

Shyrke rightly notes that any strong and overt US statement on he matter could play into Ahmadinejad's hands. Its also not just the hard-liners who have big problems with the US. A rally around the flag reaction to perceived US meddling could squander whatever momentum the forces of Democracy have going. Further, no matter who comes out of this mess on top, we do have to deal with them. Leading a righteous diplomatic crusade might feel good, but it would spoil any future relationship or agenda with the ruling regime if they do keep power, which seems likely. Wait and see is the pragmatic option. They wouldn't be the first dictatorial thugs we've done business with.

If we could have a significant positive influence on the matter through condemnation without the very real risk of inadvertently making things worse, I'd be all for that. But leading the charge now not only threatens our interests but potentially those of the protesters in the country now. Its impossible to say how a loud, aggressive, principled and moral stand might be taken. Or what effects it may have.

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Mousavi and Rafsanjani are no longer under arrest, with the former planning rallies for tomorrow, and the latter apparently trying to drum up support on the Council to remove Ayatollah Khameini.

More recent reports claim that authorities have opened fire on Protesters (maybe only with Rubber Bullets or some such less-lethal weapons though). They are also attacking the Universities and blockading Students in and preventing them from seeking outside medical attention. Also, use of tear gas is quite widespread against students/protesters/etc. Some students are apparently under attack by Ansar-e Hezbollah (Iranian Hezbollah basically). There's also rumors that some students have captured members of Ansar-e Hezbollah.

Also, more reports of journalists being forced to leave and having their cameras and such confiscated.

Iran is jamming BBCs satellites.

And finally, Iran's government sites are getting smacked around by some people on the internet. The Ministry of Culture website now just reads "Where's my vote?". http://www.ershad.ir/ershad.net/Pages/Rend...s.aspx?ID=44099 And I'd heard that Fark/4chant/etc had spammed a bunch of other government sites to death. (for awhile anyway)

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