2nd Revolution in Iran?

[Xray the Enforcer]

[mod] Let's stick to the topic of this thread and the topic is NOT about invading Iran (or Iraq, for that matter). [/mod]

[Ckrisz]

The lack of organization on the part of the protesters and the anti-Ahmadinejad forces will be fatal, I think. Ahmadinejad is basically the leader or figurehead of a hard core of 2nd-gen radicals nested in the security services, the Basij and the IRGC. They've obviously been planning this (poorly), and they've now gone too far to back down. They've placed their own necks on the line. Most importantly, since they secured the support of the Supreme Leader, they've now placed the basic legitimacy of the Islamic regime and the constitution on the line.

In essence they are leading a coup against the old generation of revolutionaries like Rafsanjani and Mousavi. During the past four years the IRGC has systematically attempted to gain control over larger chunks of the economy that was previously under the purview of the older generation and their bazaari allies. With that comes the power of patronage. That the economy has tanked under this policy is secondary to them - what matters is the consolidation of power.

This is a secondary violation of Godwin's law, but think Stalin and the Moscow Trials, where a comparatively younger, more radical leader eliminated the older generation of revolutionaries and consolidated total power based in the security forces. We are seeing the first stage of this.

The best hope might have been if Rafsanjani had been able to get a majority on the Assembly of Experts to remove Khamanei. Since he's resigned, this route appears to be shut.

Violent revolution is IMO out of the question. The entire state would come out against it as they know their necks would be on the line. The only institution that could come out against this would be the regular army, and the officer corps in Iran has never shown that sort of political independence.

Iran will, in the coming years, become much weaker. The regime has lost any popular legitimacy it might have had, and the IRGC will only continue to wreck Iran's economy. This will be a turning point in both Iranian and ME history, and ironically might be a very good thing for the U.S. We might see something of a restoration of American soft power in the region now.

[Samalander]

Ok, here is another question :

Since Iran is now an unabashed and outed dictatorship with a fanatic minority imposing it's will on the majority, and since Xray has decreed no invasion is allowed, what should the world do?

Options:

1) Do nothing. An all time classic favorite.

2) Impose international sanctions on Iran (those are so effective!!!).

3) Start funneling money and aid to opposition groups in earnest, make them choose a leader and a cohesive plan for a counter-revolution.

4) Issue a stern denouncement on CNN.

[Usotsuki]

3) Start funneling money and aid to opposition groups in earnest, make them choose a leader

Didn't we try that in 1953?

[Horza]

snipped

Interesting stuff - do you have any cites handy for the IRGC expansion/paramilitary state growth under Ahmadinejad?

[Horza]

Didn't we try that in 1953?

With added subversion, bribery, provocation and military coupness, yes.

[Thor85]

Ok, here is another question :

Since Iran is now an unabashed and outed dictatorship with a fanatic minority imposing it's will on the majority, and since Xray has decreed no invasion is allowed, what should the world do?

Options:

1) Do nothing. An all time classic favorite.

2) Impose international sanctions on Iran (those are so effective!!!).

3) Start funneling money and aid to opposition groups in earnest, make them choose a leader and a cohesive plan for a counter-revolution.

4) Issue a stern denouncement on CNN.

But what do you propose? bombing the crap out of the country and sending in the good old marines. Oh, because that was so effective in Iraq, right.

[Samalander]

1) Iran doesn't need American interventions either, they can manage it on their own in another 10 years.

2) But what do you propose? bombing the crap out of the country and sending in the good old marines. Oh, because that was so effective in Iraq, right.

1) Right... and what if the crazy radical nutjob running the country decides that the best way to stave off that scenario is to nuke the shit out of my country (which in 10 years time, if nothing is done, they'll definately be able to do).

2) For a start, the world should take a definite stand in favor of the pragmatists and acknowledge them as the rightful government of the Iranian people.

[Ckrisz]

Interesting stuff - do you have any cites handy for the IRGC expansion/paramilitary state growth under Ahmadinejad?

Horza - See this:

Iran's Rich Revolutionary Guard

Since around 2000, the IRGC's hand has extended into new and far more lucrative sectors of the economy. Most significantly, it has been awarded billions of dollars in contracts in the oil, gas and petrochemical industries, as well as major infrastructure projects. The government awards some of the no-bid contracts directly to the Guard's engineering arm, Khatam Al-Anbia. Other times, the link is more indirect: "Sometimes you see newly established firms, indirectly owned by IRGC members, receiving the contracts," says a director of a major engineering firm on condition of anonymity.

Today, many of the firms that would once have been awarded government contracts are working as subcontractors to Guard-owned enterprises. In 2006 alone, Khatam Al-Anbia received a $2.09 billion contract to develop phases of a natural gas field known as South Pars, as well as a $1.2 billion contract to build a line of the Tehran metro, and a $1.3 billion contract to build a pipeline linking Iran to Pakistan.

...

In 2001, three-quarters of Guard members voted for moderate President Mohammad Khatami, suggesting its majority have more in common with ordinary Iranians chafing under a poor economy, than with the hard-line newly rich leadership clique. In working-class districts of south Tehran, the discrepancy is visible among members of the Basij, a voluntary paramilitary organization that overlaps with the IRGC's membership. The sons of some elite IRGC commanders carry the latest mobile phones, attend top universities, and are as Internet savvy as teenagers in the West. The foot soldiers of the Basij, in contrast, often cobble together work as motorcycle messengers in the smoggy avenues around the Tehran bazaar, earning close to nothing.

Some analysts say the growing activities of the IRGC's engineering arm reflect an effort by the government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to extend the economic privileges within the Guard's lower ranks. "That the President owed his election to Basij support naturally supported this trend," says Farideh Farhi, an Iran expert and professor at the University of Hawaii.

IRGC, Inc.

In 1999, then-speaker of the Majlis Mehdi Karrubi explicitly detailed the sixty unauthorized docks controlled by the Revolutionary Guards. Ali Qanbari, then a Majlis member, further explained, "One-third of country's import takes place through illegal markets, underground economy, and unauthorized docks". Several hours after the May 8, 2004, official opening of the new Imam Khomeini Airport in Tehran, the Revolutionary Guards closed it, citing security fears over the presence of the Turkish-Austrian consortium Tepe-Akfen-Vie. Iranian sources later revealed that the Revolutionary Guards had been using the old airport to import goods tariff-free and feared losing that ability.

Some reports suggest that the Revolutionary Guards have used force to assume control of large economic projects. In July 2005, soon after Oriental Oil Kish, one of the largest private oil companies in Iran, refused the IRGC's demand for equal partnership, Cyrus Nasseri, the company's vice-chairman and a senior nuclear negotiator, was arrested and the Revolutionary Guards seized an offshore oil rig being rented by Oriental Oil from a Romanian firm. The Fars News Agency later wrote that negotiations were underway to transfer the ownership of the company to the Revolutionary Guards. Under the banner of economic privatization, the government has circumvented Iranian law to cede ownership of public companies to the Revolutionary Guards at below-market prices through no-bid contracts.

[Werthead]

A democratic revolution in Iran is about as likely as North Korea giving up its plans for world domination :) . That is... it won't happen very soon. In both cases the majority and its leaders have to give up their delusions of grandeur and accept their country's humble position in world politic. And that is a very hard thing to do for crazy (insert fanatical megalomaniac of your choice) people.

Iran is a notably non-expansionist country. They haven't instigated military action against any neighbouring power for centuries (unlike the West's new BFFs Egypt and Jordan), so the level of 'threat' provided by Iran against any other power - with the sole exception of Israel - is questionable. Iran has no plans for world domination. They'd probably quite like to become the dominant economic and political power in the Middle East, which is looking more likely since their rivals in that area (Pakistan and Iraq) are self-destructing, but beyond that the Iranian people are not megalomaniac nutters and do understand their position in the world.

Ahmadinejad on the other hand is a bit of a mentalist. Fortunately, in the previous administration the Supreme Leader put the brakes on some of his barmier notions. Interesting to see if he continues to do the same this time around.

Right... and what if the crazy radical nutjob running the country decides that the best way to stave off that scenario is to nuke the shit out of my country (which in 10 years time, if nothing is done, they'll definately be able to do).

Then they will get nuked out of existence in retaliation by Israel.

The question the Iranians are asking right now is what guarantee do they have that the government running Israel won't decide to nuke the shit out of their country, which they have been able to do at will for the last twenty years? That is the attitude that has led them to their dubious nuclear activities.

For a start, the world should take a definite stand in favor of the pragmatists and acknowledge them as the rightful government of the Iranian people.

Except when they are not, like when Ahmadinejad was voted into power four years ago, when there were no substantiated claims of vote-rigging.

[Horza]

Horza - See this:

Iran's Rich Revolutionary Guard

IRGC, Inc.

Cheers, they should make suitably depressing reading :thumbsup:

[Xray the Enforcer]

Cheers, they should make suitably depressing reading :thumbsup:

No joke. :wideeyed:

[Tears of Lys]

Interesting article by Laura Secor of The New Yorker:

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/news...n-election.html

Not to give TOO much credit to the Obama Effect, but I think this bit from the above link hits the nail on the head:

"Where Khatami was conciliatory by nature, Mousavi had a reputation for a steelier resolve. And there is the small matter of Obama, the outreach from the United States, and the unavoidable sense that most of the Iranian public and its political establishment, including all three presidential challengers, support dialogue with America. The major exceptions have been the Leader himself, his hard-line inner circle, and Ahmadinejad. Did Khamenei fear the presence of unreliable forces in government during such a sensitive moment in Iran’s foreign policy? Or did he want to shut down the possibility of dialogue altogether?"

I think, as simple as it sounds, Obama's victory and his recent speeches have caught some of the hardliners off-guard, resulting in this ham-fisted clamp-down.

[Annelise]

Wow, missed this traveling and recouping yesterday. This thread delivers - think I'm mostly up to speed now. My kid was hovering, asking about what I was reading aloud to husband.. he started to get anxious until I clarified that it was about another country and sent him to find Iran on the globe.

[Shryke]

The lack of organization on the part of the protesters and the anti-Ahmadinejad forces will be fatal, I think. Ahmadinejad is basically the leader or figurehead of a hard core of 2nd-gen radicals nested in the security services, the Basij and the IRGC. They've obviously been planning this (poorly), and they've now gone too far to back down. They've placed their own necks on the line. Most importantly, since they secured the support of the Supreme Leader, they've now placed the basic legitimacy of the Islamic regime and the constitution on the line.

In essence they are leading a coup against the old generation of revolutionaries like Rafsanjani and Mousavi. During the past four years the IRGC has systematically attempted to gain control over larger chunks of the economy that was previously under the purview of the older generation and their bazaari allies. With that comes the power of patronage. That the economy has tanked under this policy is secondary to them - what matters is the consolidation of power.

This is a secondary violation of Godwin's law, but think Stalin and the Moscow Trials, where a comparatively younger, more radical leader eliminated the older generation of revolutionaries and consolidated total power based in the security forces. We are seeing the first stage of this.

The best hope might have been if Rafsanjani had been able to get a majority on the Assembly of Experts to remove Khamanei. Since he's resigned, this route appears to be shut.

Violent revolution is IMO out of the question. The entire state would come out against it as they know their necks would be on the line. The only institution that could come out against this would be the regular army, and the officer corps in Iran has never shown that sort of political independence.

Iran will, in the coming years, become much weaker. The regime has lost any popular legitimacy it might have had, and the IRGC will only continue to wreck Iran's economy. This will be a turning point in both Iranian and ME history, and ironically might be a very good thing for the U.S. We might see something of a restoration of American soft power in the region now.

This is, sadly, probably the most accurate assessment of the situation. While the "revolution" or whatever you wanna call it has alot of public support, they pretty much lack any real leadership (all arrested right now in some form or other) and completely lack and support from the millitary/police (ie - the people with guns). Essentially a Military Coup, of sorts.

How the hell is there going to be a revolution? The supreme leader holds all the power, as well as the military. I'm not sure what the people can do (other than resist passively)

As said before, you should think of "Supreme Leader" the way you think of "President for Life" (ie don't take it literally). This Ayatollah needs to maintain friends and such to stay in power, as he's much less popular then his predecessor.

[Samalander]

1. so the level of 'threat' provided by Iran against any other power - with the sole exception of Israel - is questionable.

2. Then they will get nuked out of existence in retaliation by Israel.

3. The question the Iranians are asking right now is what guarantee do they have that the government running Israel won't decide to nuke the shit out of their country, which they have been able to do at will for the last twenty years? That is the attitude that has led them to their dubious nuclear activities.

1. I feel so much better now... :stunned:

2. Will it shock you that some of those guys think losing one or two of their cities is well worth it? Iran is a really really big country. I'm not sure we have the firepower, in a second strike scenario, to nuke ALL of it out of existance.

3. a. We have not done so far.

b. We promised not to be the first to "introduce" nuclear weapons to the region. Are you saying

we lied?

c. The attitude that led them to their dubious nuclear activities is "Power!! We want more power!!!"

Even with a nuclear umbrella that is never used Iran can cause no end of troubles.

d. Egypt never felt that compelled to get nuclear power when we had it. Suddenly Iran is on the verge and now they must have it too. Not to mention the Syrian reactor we bombed last year. A nuclear Israel is tolerated in the region. A Shiite country with radical tendencies - not so much. Everybody is frothing at the mouth to get themselves nuclear weapons to maintain a balance of terror with Iran (which means full pockets for North Korea. They don't say "tell your friends about us" when they sell their nuclear produce, they just say "tell your enemies about us" and the business doesn't stop flowing).

[Werthead]

Samalander, repsonded to your points here, as they were getting this thread OT.

[dalThor]

I wonder if the inventors of Twitter expected to aid in such an event as this.

I wish the media could/would document/report this stuff.

From Change_for_Iran

Change_for_IranBasij bastards waving Iron chains at us, my back hurts but I'm OK, we will try again around 2~3AM #iranelection

1 minute ago from TwitterFox

Change_for_IranI'm sorry people of koy for not being able to do anything, never saw so many basij forces in my life! #iranelection

37 minutes ago from TwitterFox

Change_for_Irantired & beaten. we couldn't break through their wall, they were too many & we were no match for an entire army of special forces

44 minutes ago from TwitterFox

Change_for_IranStudents & people fighting back a large group of police & Basij right now at university of physics! I'm going to join them. #iranelection

about 3 hours ago from TwitterFox

Some interesting stuff here from someone called KeeperofTruth

[Pilots are inside their Sufas at Ramat David in Israel. 4-5 have taken off. Tankers took off approx 1 hour ago. #iranelection #Mousavi

less than a minute ago from web

Pilots have been inside their Sufas for about 3 hours now at Ramat David in Israel. Perhaps 4-5 have taken off. #iranelection #Mousavi

9 minutes ago from web

Two KC-130H tankers have taken off from Ramat David airbase in Israel. These are used for in-air refueling. #iranelection #Mousavi

17 minutes ago from web

IBA commentator says a strike against Iran during civil unrest is almost certain. #iranelection #Mousavi

about 2 hours ago from web

Ramat David is alive with activity, but sealed down tight now. All personnel have been recalled #iranelection #Mousavi

about 2 hours ago from web

#iranelection Increasing civil unrest in Iran makes the liklihood of an Israeli airstrike on nuclear facilities there almost certain.

about 2 hours ago from web

#iranelection Israeli Airforce is on top alert. All personnel have been recalled. Ramat David and Palmachim airbases r on highest security.

about 2 hours ago from web

I deleted some stuff in each of the quotes to try to make this a bit shorter.

[Inigima]

So the idea of attacking Iran during all this seems like a bad idea. Is it?

[The Iceman of the North]

1) Right... and what if the crazy radical nutjob running the country decides that the best way to stave off that scenario is to nuke the shit out of my country (which in 10 years time, if nothing is done, they'll definately be able to do).

I find this scenario just as likely as Israel nuking Teheran to pre-empt such an attack, not very likely.