2nd Revolution in Iran?

[Shryke]

It's early evening in Iran now, right?

It's about 11:30pm there I believe.

[dalThor]

The Washington Post has an article with polling numbers they conducted pre-election.

Many experts are claiming that the margin of victory of incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was the result of fraud or manipulation, but our nationwide public opinion survey of Iranians three weeks before the vote showed Ahmadinejad leading by a more than 2 to 1 margin -- greater than his actual apparent margin of victory in Friday's election.

Independent and uncensored nationwide surveys of Iran are rare. Typically, preelection polls there are either conducted or monitored by the government and are notoriously untrustworthy. By contrast, the poll undertaken by our nonprofit organizations from May 11 to May 20 was the third in a series over the past two years. Conducted by telephone from a neighboring country, field work was carried out in Farsi by a polling company whose work in the region for ABC News and the BBC has received an Emmy award. Our polling was funded by the Rockefeller Brothers Fund.

Some might argue that the professed support for Ahmadinejad we found simply reflected fearful respondents' reluctance to provide honest answers to pollsters. Yet the integrity of our results is confirmed by the politically risky responses Iranians were willing to give to a host of questions. For instance, nearly four in five Iranians -- including most Ahmadinejad supporters -- said they wanted to change the political system to give them the right to elect Iran's supreme leader, who is not currently subject to popular vote. Similarly, Iranians chose free elections and a free press as their most important priorities for their government, virtually tied with improving the national economy. These were hardly "politically correct" responses to voice publicly in a largely authoritarian society.

It's a rather long piece, I just picked out a couple of paragraphs.

The Iranian People Speak.

It could be the large turnout swayed the votes or perhaps, sadly, Ahmadinejad did actually win. This is the only piece I've found as of yet which supports 'actual' numbers reported.

Read an unconfirmed report from Iran State TV that a recount will occur tomorrow.

[Shryke]

I finally got through and spoke with my family in Tehran. My cousin, who studies at the University, had the following report:

"Life has come to a halt. There were at least 2-3M in the streets today. I've never seen such anger. We are not going let this go. They've closed all the universities (during final exams) and have started a purge. Many of our professors are missing and student organizers are moving constantly to avoid detainment. The police is just watching and the army has declared neutrality. The violence is 100% caused by the BASIJ and thugs who are roaming the streets. They seem to be targeting girls, swinging with clubs and chains. Its disgusting but we are protected by numbers. Get the word out-- the more of us stand together, the safer each individual will be. The reports of the university attacks yesterday are true. We don't know how many were hurt or killed."

*The Basij are essentially an armed militia under the direction of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

There's also many pictures of people shot, beaten, etc.

[mcbigski]

I have to say, Obama is pissing me off right now.

I know that health care reform is very, very important and the Administration's major domestic initiative, but this is could be a historic turning point right now in Iranian history.

I know we don't want to box ourselves in, but my natural instinct is to try and lend as much support as possible to Mousavi and the incredibly brave people backing him right now. Perhaps not with some sort of statement outright against the regime, but in support of the people's right to protest and to a fair recount.

Ban Ki Moon and the EU have come out in favor of an investigation. The President should as well.

Obama shouldn't say anything right now. That way, whatever happens later can be spun to his benefit, instead of his getting on the record and ending up on the wrong side of whoever the victor ends up being. All the best people know that democracy isn't really viable in a Muslim country anyway and it would be gauche of him to imply it were so. That's something village idiots from Texas believe in, but we're much more enlightened now.

I'll certainly be paying attention to what's going on in Iran over the next several days though. We might be seeing something wild, unpredictable and transformative. Even if the younger generation truly doesn't want a revolution, at what point does it become a better bad alternative than going along?

[Shryke]

Obama shouldn't say anything right now. That way, whatever happens later can be spun to his benefit, instead of his getting on the record and ending up on the wrong side of whoever the victor ends up being. All the best people know that democracy isn't really viable in a Muslim country anyway and it would be gauche of him to imply it were so. That's something village idiots from Texas believe in, but we're much more enlightened now.

:huh:

[Shryke]

More Twitter stuff:

2:45 pm: Basij base attacked

“Reliable news from Iran has arrived that after the death of one person by Basij, the Basij base in Azadi Sq. has been burned down and the commander in that base has been killed.†[The fire is being confirmed by an eye-witness.]

[Ckrisz]

The Washington Post has an article with polling numbers they conducted pre-election.

It's a rather long piece, I just picked out a couple of paragraphs.

The Iranian People Speak.

It could be the large turnout swayed the votes or perhaps, sadly, Ahmadinejad did actually win. This is the only piece I've found as of yet which supports 'actual' numbers reported.

Read an unconfirmed report from Iran State TV that a recount will occur tomorrow.

Nate Silver @ FiveThirtyEight has a post pointing out problems with Terror Free Tomorrow's poll.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/did...ad-victory.html

Silver has already posted about how one graph purporting to show absolute fraud did not really predict such, so he's not in the tank for one narrative or another.

[Slyfinger]

And people ask me why I spend so much time on an internet book forum. To hell with the thread, this board delivers.

Color me confused as well, Shryke.

[The Stranger]

I am watching the 700 Club's take on the riots right now. Robertson is one of the most surreal dudes on the planet.

Ckrisz: Rafsanjani hasn't had cred for a decade. Khamenei has one dead hand after taking a grenade from a rival faction while serving as Tehran's friday prayer leader in the early 1980s. They don't come much harder than him, and the combined tenures of Rafsanjani and Khatami prove that he doesn't flinch. If he wants to get his hands dirty, he seriously outguns the opposition.

As for my reporting the fact that Iranian young adults don't want to do a revolution, I'm not very convinced by your argument since it amounts to once again citing basic great-man politics of septagenarians. These people almost completely lost their credibility during Khatami's term by backing down from supporting the student riots in 1999. These protests look to me like grumbling about the current administration, and not an actually led struggle against the government. The fact remains that all interviews that I've read by credible researchers talking with Iranian students report that the young Iranians do not want to topple the government. Within that constraint, a revolution can't happen.

on Larijani: Larijani despises Ahmadinejad and ran against him in the last election. He is also well-liked by Khamenei, however, so if he's calling for a recount I imagine it's a screw-you to the president, but by no means a challenge to Khamenei.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Slyfinger,

That's why I started this thread. I had a feeling this could be an interesting few days in Iran.

[Ocean of Notions]

Crap. After reading all the pages to catch up, I don't remember if anyone's mentioned today's shooting during one of the rallies. It is said that someone was shot and killed. People are tweeting this horrible photo posted on Flickr: http://www.flickr.com/photos/arasmus/3629097035/

Be warned, I do mean horrible. I really hope it's not as bad as it looks, but it looks damn bad.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Mcbigski,

Obama shouldn't say anything right now. That way, whatever happens later can be spun to his benefit, instead of his getting on the record and ending up on the wrong side of whoever the victor ends up being. All the best people know that democracy isn't really viable in a Muslim country anyway and it would be gauche of him to imply it were so. That's something village idiots from Texas believe in, but we're much more enlightened now.

Please keep the political sniping out of this thread. This is bigger than U.S. partisan bullshit.

[Ckrisz]

Really good discussion on Fareed Zakaria GPS:

Nicholas Burns, Reza Aslan, and Afshin Molavi.

http://www.cnn.com/CNN/Programs/fareed.zakaria.gps/

Click down to Iran Election Panel.

[Shryke]

I am watching the 700 Club's take on the riots right now. Robertson is one of the most surreal dudes on the planet.

Ckrisz: Rafsanjani hasn't had cred for a decade. Khamenei has one dead hand after taking a grenade from a rival faction while serving as Tehran's friday prayer leader in the early 1980s. They don't come much harder than him, and the combined tenures of Rafsanjani and Khatami prove that he doesn't flinch. If he wants to get his hands dirty, he seriously outguns the opposition.

As for my reporting the fact that Iranian young adults don't want to do a revolution, I'm not very convinced by your argument since it amounts to once again citing basic great-man politics of septagenarians. These people almost completely lost their credibility during Khatami's term by backing down from supporting the student riots in 1999. These protests look to me like grumbling about the current administration, and not an actually led struggle against the government. The fact remains that all interviews that I've read by credible researchers talking with Iranian students report that the young Iranians do not want to topple the government. Within that constraint, a revolution can't happen.

on Larijani: Larijani despises Ahmadinejad and ran against him in the last election. He is also well-liked by Khamenei, however, so if he's calling for a recount I imagine it's a screw-you to the president, but by no means a challenge to Khamenei.

I'm a little torn on this. While alot of the initial anger seemed to be mostly anti-Ahmadinejad, there seems to be some of it turning on Khamenei recently. There's been people criticizing him publicly in the Iranian media (which AFAIK is just not something that happens)

He may have stepped in it with this whole election thing. His support for an investigation may turn that around though. Not sure.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Does anyone know if the crowds we're seeing now approach the size of the crowds in 1979?

[Ckrisz]

I am watching the 700 Club's take on the riots right now. Robertson is one of the most surreal dudes on the planet.

Ckrisz: Rafsanjani hasn't had cred for a decade. Khamenei has one dead hand after taking a grenade from a rival faction while serving as Tehran's friday prayer leader in the early 1980s. They don't come much harder than him, and the combined tenures of Rafsanjani and Khatami prove that he doesn't flinch. If he wants to get his hands dirty, he seriously outguns the opposition.

Not cred with the student opposition or even the general population, I totally agree. Ahmadenijad's attacks on him and what he represents are the most attractive parts of his personality and for many of his supporters the main reason why he remains compelling.

He still does have quite a bit of cred, however, with the old guard revolutionaries, the bazaari economic elites, and a large part of the government and security bureaucracies by dint of both pedigree and patronage.

I think Khamanei has already flinched - witness the massive rally today, Mousavi's attendance at said rally rather than being hustled off to Evin or remaining under house arrest, and Khamanei's call for investigations into fraud.

As for my reporting the fact that Iranian young adults don't want to do a revolution, I'm not very convinced by your argument since it amounts to once again citing basic great-man politics of septagenarians. These people almost completely lost their credibility during Khatami's term by backing down from supporting the student riots in 1999. These protests look to me like grumbling about the current administration, and not an actually led struggle against the government. The fact remains that all interviews that I've read by credible researchers talking with Iranian students report that the young Iranians do not want to topple the government. Within that constraint, a revolution can't happen.

I'd argue that events are currently overtaking such precepts. Khamanei attempting to certify such a massive fraud put the legitimacy of the regime on the line. That people still refused to lay down and accept this, and the failure to utterly smash them, shows that Khamanei is wavering and uncertain. If he was as strong and competent as you argue, why didn't the Basij prevent the rally from occurring? Why aren't Mousavi and Rafsanjani on TV right now, endorsing Ahmadi's big win, or at the very least locked up? Why are people chanting "Death to the coup" and "Allah-o Akhbar" (1979 Revolutionary chant) from the rooftops in Tehran?

on Larijani: Larijani despises Ahmadinejad and ran against him in the last election. He is also well-liked by Khamenei, however, so if he's calling for a recount I imagine it's a screw-you to the president, but by no means a challenge to Khamenei.

Exactly. Why would Larijani argue for investigations without Khamanei's permission? He wouldn't. That he would take an anti-Ahmadi position after endorsing his election is evidence that Khamanei is wavering right now.

[dalThor]

Nate Silver @ FiveThirtyEight has a post pointing out problems with Terror Free Tomorrow's poll.

Silver has already posted about how one graph purporting to show absolute fraud did not really predict such, so he's not in the tank for one narrative or another.

Thanks for the link. If you delve into the depths the the actual survey they do report what is linked above. Mainly, Ahmadinejad 33.8%, Mousavi 13.6%. The other two candidates got <3% and a whopping 24.7% undecided. 7.4% refused to answer.

It takes all the undecideds voting for Ahmadinejad to get near the numbers he supposedly won by.

Unconfirmed reports from twitter say 7 dead, parts of northern Tehran burning, cell phone calls being monitored, et. al. One guy there PersianKiwi, who sounds like a student, is missing 3 of the group that went to the protest today.

ETA:

Does anyone know if the crowds we're seeing now approach the size of the crowds in 1979?

CNN's Chrstiane Amancour (sp?) today said it was the largest since. No link, sorry. Bigger? No idea.

[Crow's Eye]

Mcbigski,

Please keep the political sniping out of this thread. This is bigger than U.S. partisan bullshit.

Although he phrased it quite crudely, I do think he has a point Scot. Public statements from the US right now will serve no good. It seems to me that above all else, Iran has a deep-seeded dislike for foreign intervention in its internal politics, particularly if that intervention is seen to come from the US. Obama just made it a point in his Cairo speech to acknowledge US involvement in internal Iranian affairs in the past, so I think that public comments now (particularly if the "wrong" side wins out) can have serious negative effects on any long term relations between the US/West and Iran.

Ckrisz:

Khamanei attempting to certify such a massive fraud put the legitimacy of the regime on the line. That people still refused to lay down and accept this, and the failure to utterly smash them, shows that Khamanei is wavering and uncertain.

Khamanei's reversal is quite possibly the most interesting piece of the puzzle. I think it clear that the scope of the protests have him a bit spooked, and he does see his choices as brutal repression (which he clearly cannot conceal from the international community in the information age) or acknowledgment of the possibility of fraud. The latter at least buys him some time to figure out how best to proceed given the massive civil unrest. Either way, if he doesn't do something, what started as a protest against a fraudulent election could quickly become a revolution against the entire Islamic regime.

Or at least that's how my uneducated eye sees it. There are many here with far more insight into this matter than I.

[Shryke]

Also, McCain has opened his stupid mouth on Fox News and said we should act.

Liebermann, trying to up the ante on stupidity, is apparently going to call for sanctions.

[Maithanet]

Why are people chanting "Death to the coup" and "Allah-o Akhbar" (1979 Revolutionary chant) from the rooftops in Tehran?

Doesn't Allah Akhbar mean 'god is great'? I thought it was used as a generic phrase throughout muslim culture, and can be applicable to the most basic things like "thank you for passing the salt" and "bless you" after you sneeze, or for heavier fare, such as in this case, where it means (roughly) "Do God's will!"

Exactly how/why the phrase is so universal I do not know, but I remember a prof telling me that in many muslim areas, there is virtually no time when the response of Allah Akhbar is considered inappropriate.