2nd Revolution in Iran?

[Shryke]

CNN's Chrstiane Amancour (sp?) today said it was the largest since. No link, sorry. Bigger? No idea.

I heard a BBC reporter saying it had to be like a million, easily. No clue on the veracity of that, but it was alot of fucking people.

[Shryke]

Doesn't Allah Akhbar mean 'god is great'? I thought it was used as a generic phrase throughout muslim culture, and can be applicable to the most basic things like "thank you for passing the salt" and "bless you" after you sneeze, or for heavier fare, such as in this case, where it means (roughly) "Do God's will!"

Exactly how/why the phrase is so universal I do not know, but I remember a prof telling me that in many muslim areas, there is virtually no time when the response of Allah Akhbar is considered inappropriate.

Yeah. It's the all purpose chant really.

[Shryke]

Latest Twitters are talking about roving bands of Basij/Militia-types with guns attacking protesters. Street fights all over the place.

[dalThor]

Why are people chanting "Death to the coup" and "Allah-o Akhbar" (1979 Revolutionary chant) from the rooftops in Tehran?

From what I can gather the rooftop thing was done in '79 in support of overthrowing the Shah and is being used for much the same thing now.

[Brude]

Does anyone know if the crowds we're seeing now approach the size of the crowds in 1979?

Hard to say. The 1979 Revolution is the first major world news event that I remember following as a child. My memories are of big crowds but not this big and none of the video I've seen recently of the '79 events shows crowds this big. But a that doesn't mean they didn't happen, just that maybe the cameras didn't catch them. Back then there might be just a few outside news cameras in all of Iran. Now everyone with a cell phone is a news camera person, which is where we are seeing most of our images from now.

[Ocean of Notions]

People are Tweeting like it provides them with air. Sifting through stuff to find this:

RT @IranElection09 Just receiving word from several sources that the nationwide STRIKE tom(Tues) is on throughout all of Iran #iranelection

less than 20 seconds ago from web

I wonder how accurate this is...

[dalThor]

People are Tweeting like it provides them with air. Sifting through stuff to find this:

IranElection is really cluttered.

It's a lot easier to only follow the actual poeple in Iran:

PersianKiwi

Iran09

StopAhmadi

are all good. I've got a couple more who aren't posting as often.

The most interesting rumor (and I say RUMOR) so far has been that Ahmadinejad will stage a terror attack/assasination attempt on himself tomorrow.

For anyone that's interested here's a link to BBC Persian live. They've got their own Anderson Cooper guy workin' the computer. (It's in what I presume to be Farsi.) Some of the pics/videos they're showing are worthwhile.

BBC Persian

[Xray the Enforcer]

The most interesting rumor (and I say RUMOR) so far has been that Ahmadinejad will stage a terror attack/assasination attempt on himself tomorrow.

That's total tin-foil hat, black helicopter territory. :stunned:

(not dissing you, dalThor -- just surprised that the rhetoric has gone that far...)

[dalThor]

That's total tin-foil hat, black helicopter territory. :stunned:

(not dissing you, dalThor -- just surprised that the rhetoric has gone that far...)

Totally agree. Dennis Kucinich territory.

[Slyfinger]

Is it just me or was Ahmadinejad trying to pull off a Xanatos Gambit here? All this tin-hat talk and the pressure being put on the Ayatollah and the protesters...

I believe someone provided a link earlier saying Ahmadinejad holds considerable sway with the military...

[Shryke]

Video proof of Basij firing into crowd: http://link.brightcove.com/services/player...tid=26415347001

Admittedly, te crowd was burning a Basij base down at the time, but still.

I believe someone provided a link earlier saying Ahmadinejad holds considerable sway with the military...

I believe he holds sway with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard (of which he is a sorta-former member), but not the military.

[Ocean of Notions]

I'm pretty sure military power is held by the Supreme Leader and the president doesn't have direct control over that area.

[awesome possum]

BBC Flow Chart of Iran Power Structure

[SkyPirate]

Does anyone know if the crowds we're seeing now approach the size of the crowds in 1979?

My parents were there on the streets in 1979 and they're pretty impressed by the footage of the crowds.

This is weird. I'm totally overwhelmed at so many people speaking my own language on main stream TV. I've never seen this before. But I dunno, I'm only 19.

[Slyfinger]

I'm pretty sure military power is held by the Supreme Leader and the president doesn't have direct control over that area.

I'm aware of the power structure. I was pointing out the business dealings Ahmadinejad has with high ranking military officials.

[IheartTesla]

Ahmedinijad + Basij militia + IRGC + Ministry of the Interior + Supreme leader Khameini against Rafsanjani+Mousavi+Khatami+a few million Iranian youth.

According to one of the sites Sully linked to, apparently Rafsanjani is in Qom trying to see if he can get enough clerics (council of experts) on his side to depose Khameini. All this seems a bit hard to follow. I should take a close look at that power structure chart.

[dalThor]

Here's a nice op-ed from a guy in Tehran for the N.Y. Times: Iran on razor's edge.

I received this note from an Iranian-American with family here: “The bottom line right now is whose violence threshold is higher? How much are the hard-liners willing to inflict to suppress the population and tell yet another generation to shut up? And how much are Moussavi and his supporters willing to stand to fulfill their dreams? It sounds so inhuman, but that’s what it comes down to. It’s very scary.â€

[Werthead]

For context of the 1979 Revolution, I unreservedly recommend

(in three parts, each divided into six segments on YouTube), which is an excellent overview of Western-Iranian relations and features interviews with many of the major players in the current situation as well.

While I'm sure the media outlets in the US do have some constraints on what they can cover due to limited resources, I can't imagine that news sources in the UK have many more resources and they seem to have provided a lot of coverage of the issue. I obviously don't know what the coverage is like in the US but it seems strange to me if this has not been given much attention by the major news providers.

As someone said earlier, the UK has enjoyed 'better' relations with Iran since 2001 when Jack Straw flew to Tehran immediately after 9/11 and won Iranian support for actions against the Taliban which, for a few months, looked like it could even mend US-Iranian relations altogether. Of course, Bush had to go and make a certain premature speech at the UN which sabotaged that. That strained relations with the UK, but the UK has succeeded in keeping open channels of communication and, most importantly, a BBC bureau in Tehran, which is how we're getting such excellent coverage from John Simpson right now (and as I've said before, if you want someone on the ground reporting on a situation as it develops, Simpson is among the best).

Simpson's current reports confirm one death, but also that the main protest was notably under-policed. The sheer size of the crowds apparently saw the police standing aside rather than confronting it directly. There was one moment earlier when a group of policemen on motorbikes tried to disperse a small crowd and one of the policemen fell off and badly injured himself. Several protesters helped him hobble off to hospital, which is being shown as a sign that the two sides seem reluctant to really hurt one another, although how long that can continue is unclear. The latest videos show the riot police out in force after dark and people have gone home, leaving the centre of Tehran empty but, once again, there are signs of rooftop protests and fires being lit in certain areas.

Tomorrow's British newspapers are apprently using the phrase 'Green Revolution', which seems an interesting choice of wording, evoking memories of the situation in the Ukraine a few years back.

[SkyPirate]

You know, for guys who don't want a bloody revolution* they sure are yelling a lot of things like "Death to this dictatorship" and "I'm fighting, I'm dying, I'm getting my vote back" a lot. I mean, my Farsi is pretty crappy but even I could tell you that.

*Yes, I know that people will shout outrageous slogans during riots, but still.

Meedanne Azadi is packed. My parents actually gasped when they saw the footage of that.

Tomorrow's British newspapers are apprently using the phrase 'Green Revolution', which seems an interesting choice of wording, evoking memories of the situation in the Ukraine a few years back.

Dutch television had an interview with one of Mousavi's spokespersons. The Dutch dude asked him whether this was going to be a velvet revolution or a bloody revolution. The answer was a green revolution. I suppose that's where it's from.

I haven't seen that documentary yet but the comments are gold. Ah man, Iranians duking it out about who is right and wrong regarding the first revolution. The memories are coming back to me. XD

[Shryke]

Firstly, holy shit that's alot of people.

Secondly, this could get nasty:

REPORTS People's homes are being invaded across the Tehran, satellite dishes confiscated to prevent flow of news into country #iranelection

Sanctuary of your own home is very important in Iran, or so I've been told.