2nd Revolution in Iran?

[Ckrisz]

For youth not bent on revolution, they certainly seem to be doing a lot of burning Basiji HQs.

Events are spinning out of the control of the security forces if they cannot quell this sort of thing. The size of the crowd attacking the HQ is stunning.

[Brude]

The more people the government kills, the more martyrs they are creating. I don't think they can win that way - it's only turning protests into a full-blown revolution. Even if originally the students didn't want a new revolution, the government's own actions could well create one.

Burning militia buildings, and all of that...it's not the same thing today that it was yesterday. I guess this is a classic example of what people mean when they say, "events on the ground are rapidly evolving."

[Shryke]

Swipped from Fark:http://www.fark.com/cgi/comments.pl?IDLink=4449566

This seems to be helping quite a few people, so I'll go ahead and repost it with some adjustments and now with links for those who want additional information. Sorry, this has reached the level of TL;DR but I really am trying to cram the most relevant information and speculation only.

Suppression of Dissent - The Players

Currently, there are two or three groups who are suppressing the students on the ground that you'll read about throughout this thread:

1. The Basij (confirmed)

2. Ansar Hizbullah (confirmed, which I will refer to as Ansar)

3. Lebanese Hizbullah (unconfirmed but highly probable in the mind of Persians, many different independent reports and video point that wa; I will refer to them as Hizbullah)

- The Basij are your regular paramilitary organization. They are the armed hand of the clerics. The Basij are a legal group, officially a student union, and are legally under direct orders of the Revolutionary Guard. Their main raison d'être is to quell dissent. They are the ones who go and crack skulls, force people to participate in pro-regime demonstrations, and generally try to stop any demonstrations from even starting. They are basically located throughout the country, in every mosque, every university, every social club you can think of. They function in a way very similar to the brown shirts.

They were the ones who first started the crackdown after the election but it wasn't enough. While they are violent and repressive, they are still Persian and attacking fellow citizens. A beating is one thing, mass killings another.

- Another group was working with them, who are even more extreme, is Ansar. There is a lot of cross-membership between the Basij and Ansar, though not all members are members of the other group and vice-versa. The vast majority of Ansar are Persians (either Basij or ex-military), though a lot of Arab recruits come from Lebanon and train with them under supervision of the Revolutionary Guard. They are not a legal group, they are considered pretty much a vigilante group, but they pledge loyalty directly to the Supreme Leader and most people believe that they are under his control. They are currently helping the Basij to control the riots, but due to the fact that they are Persians and in lower numbers than the Basij, they are not that active.

- (the following paragraph includes some speculation based on reports from ground zero) Hizbullah flew in a lot of their members in Iran, most likely a good deal even before the elections in case there were trouble. They are the ones who speak Arabs and are unleashing the biggest level of violence on the Persians so far. Another wave arrived recently and there is chatter that yet another wave of Hizbullah reinforcements are coming in from Lebanon as we speak. According to Iranians on the ground, they are the ones riding motorcycles, beating men women and children indiscriminately and firing live ammunitions at students.

The Lebanese Hizbullah is a direct offshoot (and under direct control) of the Iranian Hizbullah (itself under direct control of the Supreme Leader) and cooperates closely with Ansar though Ansar occupies itself only with Iran's domestic policies, while Hizbullah occupies itself only with Iran's foreign policy unless there is a crisis like right now. However, Hizbullah has been called to stop violent riots in Iran in the past.

What will happen

Unless the army decides to intervene in the favor of the Council and to stop the early beginnings of the new Revolution, Ansar & Hizbullah members will be the ones doing the brunt of the killing and repression with Basij as a support while also protecting government buildings and try to do crowd control. The police seems to have for the most part disbanded in centers like Tehran according to all reports, including international media. If the police decides to come back, they will focus less on protection and crowd control, so the Basij will start to crack more skulls).

Currently, this is what is happening.

Timeline

note: I built this through both articles and twitter feeds, so I do not claim that this is a 100% factually correct representation of reality, but this is the general narrative.

- When the first spontaneous riots erupted, the first wave the Iranian Riot Police was called in, and short after the Basij also took the scene. The RP concentrated mostly around public buildings and streets while the Basij took position around student groups, especiallly universities.

- As things got more out of hand, more and more Basij troops were called in, as the police started dispersing. The riot police are less inclined (or, rather I should say the Basij are more inclined) to use violence so they retreated and leaving the place to the

- With the second wave of Basij also came Ansar Hizbullah members. This is the point where firearms started being used. There are reports of a few murders but it was mostly fired in the air or on walls in order to scare away protesters in University dorms.

- It's around the time of the second wave that the first reports and videos of an important number of non-Persian thugs shouting in Arabic and violently beating people with chains, clubs and electric batons (similar to cattle prods). The end of the second wave came right before the beginning of the current manifestation. Things were getting quieter with only sporadic reports of dissenters being assaulted. Important to note: at this time. the Supreme Leader has authorized these militias to use live ammunition against the crowd if things get out of hand (source: BBC)

- This brings us to the third wave, which just began around 12:30PM for those of us on the East Coast. According to all reports, plainclothes militia have opened fire on civilians protesting peacefully.

Right now, there is chaos in the streets, reports of fighting all over Tehran, plenty of pictures of people shot, some to death. Things are ugly and this is spreading in other cities as well. There is a major crackdown on students, especially those with connections to the outside world going on right now. Some people report that the students are fighting back in some areas. Others report that telephones are being bugged and everyone twittering and sending videos outside of Iran are being rounded up.

Violent and murderous repression has started. At least a dozen people have been killed so far. Things will spiral down fast, and very soon.

[Shryke]

rahmin 1st hand account: police and army have declared neutrality -- all violence is coming from the Basij militia and other thugs #iranelection[

10thSpeedWriter RT: Rumors going: Mousavi's site hacked, rally could be an IRG trap. Gun emplacements at Azadi Square confirmed! Retweet ASAP! #IranElection

[Commodore]

this is either going to end with a massive slaughter of protesters or the overthrow of the regime

[Commodore]

the internet and international media have done an amazing job covering one of the most important events of this century, but the rest of American media is embarassingly absent

[Shryke]

this is either going to end with a massive slaughter of protesters or the overthrow of the regime

Hnoestly, I think we may see both. Any actual large scale attack on the protesters will result in this thing really blowing up. Hell, it may already really blow up, we'll have to see later tonight/(tomorrow in Iran Time).

the internet and international media have done an amazing job covering one of the most important events of this century, but the rest of American media is embarassingly absent

They severely cut back their foreign bureaus, and this is what you get.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

If the Iranian Goverment falls after Hizbulla Arabs fought to defend it will a new government continue support to Hizbulla and Hamas? What could that to to regional power balances?

[Werthead]

BBC News 24 informs me that they are now broadcasting on PBS in the USA, if that's any help to anyone.

Latest news:

Shots fired in northern Tehran. Riot police deployed in large numbers after night fell and are now 'hunting down' protestors. However, there are fewer protestors on the streets tonight compared to last night. The riot police had refused to intervene during the day protests due to the sheer size of the protest. The one death was outside a Baij barracks.

Mousavi says he was told by the office of the Supreme Leader a few hours after the poll closed that he had won and to prepare his victory speech. He was in the middle of doing this when the contrary result was announced, and he was taken aback by this.

It has been theorised that the Supreme Leader seems to have put the blocks on any crackdown, restraining the riot police and ordering the enquiry, possibly remembering that the 1979 Revolution started in earnest with the young people and students. That is more speculative than based on hard information though.

[Usotsuki]

If the Iranian Goverment falls after Hizbulla Arabs fought to defend it will a new government continue support to Hizbulla and Hamas? What could that to to regional power balances?

And if they have also brought in orcs how will this impact future relations with Saruman, we all know the long and tangled history of Ahmedinejad and Isengard.

Edit: Ansar-e-Hezbollah

[Ocean of Notions]

And if they have also brought in orcs how will this impact future relations with Saruman, we all know the long and tangled history of Ahmedinejad and Isengard.

Only if Ahmedinejad builds an intimidating tower fortress somewhere in Tehran.

[Ckrisz]

The President's statement today. Not as far as I would have gone, but not bad:

http://niacblog.wordpress.com/2009/06/15/u...lection-unrest/

Obviously, all of us have been watching the news from Iran. And I want to start by being very clear that it is up to Iranians to make decisions about who Iran’s leaders will be, that we respect Iranian sovereignty and want to avoid the United States being the issue inside of Iran, which sometimes — the United States can be a handy political football, or discussions with the United States [can be]. Having said all that, I am deeply troubled by the violence I have been seeing on television. I think that the democratic process, free speech, the ability of people to peacefully dissent, all those are universal values, and need to be respected. And whenever I see violence perpetrated on people who are peacefully dissenting, and whenever the American people see that, I think they are rightfully troubled.

My understanding is that the Iranian government says they are going to look into irregularities that have taken place. We weren’t on the ground, we did not have observers there, we did not have international observers on hand, so I can’t state definitively one way or another what happened with respect to the election. But what I can say is that there appears to be a sense on the part of people who were so hopeful and so engaged and so committed to democracy who now feel betrayed. And I think it’s important moving forward whatever investigations take place are done in a way that is not resulting in bloodshed and is not resulting in people being stifled in expressing their views.

Now with respect to the United States and our interactions with Iran: I have always believed that as odious as I consider some of the statement of Ahmadinejad, as deep as some of the differences that exist between the United States and Iran on a range of core issues, that the use of tough, hard-headed diplomacy, diplomacy with no illusions, about Iran and the nature of the differences between our two countries is critical when it comes to pursuing a core set of our national security interests, specifically making sure that we are not seeing a nuclear arms race in the Middle East triggered by Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon, making sure that Iran’s not exporting terrorist activity. Those are core interests not just to the United States but to a peaceful world in general. We will continue to pursue a tough, direct dialogue between our two countries, and we’ll see where it takes us.

But even as we do so, I think it would be wrong for me to stay silent about what we’ve seen on the television over the last few days. And what I would say to the people who put so much hope and energy and optimism into the political process, I would say to them that the world is watching and is inspired by their participation, regardless of what the ultimate outcome of the election was. And they should know the world is watching, and particularly to the youth of Iran, I want them to know that we in the United States do not want to make any decisions for the Iranians, but we do believe that the Iranian people and their voices should be heard and respected.

[Shryke]

Only if Ahmedinejad builds an intimidating tower fortress somewhere in Tehran.

http://www.aref-adib.com/archives/tehran_algiers.jpg?

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

If someone would simply link to "They're taking the hobbits to Isenguard" the circle of mockery will be complete and perhaps someone would think about my question.

[The Progressive]

Scot,

Perhaps it's because your question doesn't make a lot of sense. To quote: "If the Iranian Goverment falls after Hizbulla Arabs fought to defend it will a new government continue support to Hizbulla and Hamas? What could that to to regional power balances?"

Who would Hezbolla and Hamas fought in order to defend the current Iranian government? Israel?

[Horza]

If someone would simply link to "They're taking the hobbits to Isenguard" the circle of mockery will be complete and perhaps someone would think about my question.

Thing is, those reports of Lebanese Hezbollah fighters don't make any sense - Hezbollah is a professional semi-conventional army how and why they'd be doing crowd control for Ahmadinejad escapes me.

[Shryke]

Um ... the protesters? There's been many rumors (and unconfirmed sitings) that members of Lebanese Hezbollah have been flown in or some such to supplement Ansar-e-Hezbollah (Iranian Hezbollah), Basij et all's numbers. Also, remember that Iran is the finger up Lebanese Hezbollah's puppet-ass and does train many of them

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Lev, Horza,

Perhaps they like their Iranian backers remaining in power and recognize that they (Hamas/Hizbulla) are willing to do the dirty work to keep a friendly regime in power that the Iranian police and army aren't willing to do?

[The Stranger]

as I've gotten to know more Lebanese Shiites, quite a few of whom are Hizbollah voters, I've come to think more and more that the vaunted link between Hizbollah and Iran ain't quite what it used to be. Hizbollah as an organization simply isn't that indebted to Iran anymore, and certainly doesn't feel much Shiite internationalist duty to defend Ahmadinejad's govt. Khamenei's hierarchy has all of the repressive apparati it truly needs to suppress this rioting if the government actually faces an existential threat. Hizbollah wouldn't waste its members on foreign crowd control in any case--they've got more than enough on their plates at home.

[turinturambar]

Thing is, those reports of Lebanese Hezbollah fighters don't make any sense - Hezbollah is a professional semi-conventional army how and why they'd be doing crowd control for Ahmadinejad escapes me.

Ask most Iranians and they'll tell you that Hizbollah does in fact support Iran in such matters. Iran donates 10,000,000+ to their cause and as a result they run intelligence for them. Many protestors in Iran are reporting that Hizbollah are running through the crowds and are responsible for a lot of the deaths so far. The problem though is that when you have a bunch of non-farsi speaking people running through crowds putting guns to people's heads, that only enrages the Persians more. Persians are very proud, I often think of them as the Texans of the Middleast.