Plot question, ASOS (Tyrion/Tywin)

[Ran]

There's no evidence that Widow's Blood was used, and there's no information about its exact process of working. It may be that it's so effective that even at death, bowels do not evacuate. Maybe it does, maybe it doesn't. No evidence that a person would psychologically be _stuck_ on the toilet, unwilling to get off of it. I don't know about you, but constipation is a horrible feeling, yet constipated people don't generally refuse to budge from the seat of ease.

[Happy Ent]

I won’t discuss the plausibility of effects of a fictional poison, but here’s what Pycelle has to say about it Widow’s blood: “Widow's blood, this one is called, for the color. A cruel potion. It shuts down a man's bladder and bowels, until he drowns in his own poisons”

And here’s Tyrion’s description of the effect of the poison he used on Cersei: “He almost felt sorry for poisoning her. It was the next morning as he broke his fast that her messenger arrived. The queen was indisposed and would not be able to leave her chambers. Not able to leave her privy, more like.”Maybe Tyrion used Widow’s Blood, maybe not.

Maybe Varys used it, maybe not. Maybe he used a poison that was even more convenient for the plot. Call it Widow’s Plot, if you want. If the crackpot theory turns out to be true, the poison does what GRRM needs it to do: clog up your bowels and glue you to the privy shaft.

Such a poisoning would have been properly foreshadowed (describing such a poison, telling us Pycelle has it, telling us Tyrion steals some poison from Pycelle, and demonstrating its effects on Cersei) in Clash and Storm, and there’s certainly enough focus on the puzzling state of Lord Tywin’s corpse’s bowels in Feast.

Don’t like it? Fine. Nobody is out to prove anything here. The theory doesn’t pretend to be anything more than a consistent and parsimonious explanation.

[Ran]

For those who aren't familiar with the Cersei situation, here's the scene when Tyrion rifles through Pycelle's medicinal shelves and picks up whatever potion he uses on her, in A Clash of Kings:

He noted sweetsleep and nightshade, milk of the poppy, the tears of Lys, powdered greycap, wolfsbane and demon's dance, basilisk venom, blindeye, widow's blood . . .

Standing on his toes and straining upward, he managed to pull a small dusty bottle off the high shelf. When he read the label, he smiled and slipped it up his sleeve.

For my part, it's clear from how it's written that he picked up something other than widow's blood, something he spotted right afterwards (makes sense, since it seems Pycelle organized his shelf in terms of utility). Probably a laxative (an exact opposite of widow's blood), which is a much surer way to prevent Cersei from getting far from a toilet. If we accept that Cersei was given a laxative (or, at least, not widow's blood), then there's absolutely no evidence that widow's blood even causes any particular desire to go to the toilet. In fact, it may do the exact opposite, magically preventing any urge to evacuate the bowels even when you realize it's killing you... That's pretty cruel.

A nomenclature question: wouldn't a "parsimonious" theory be one that could potentially survive Occam's Razor?

[Lord Varys]

Even if Tywin could not shit, the question remain why he should spend hours and hours sitting and not shitting there, not realizing what is happening in your bedroom. That makes no sense at all, and even less if you are the Hand of the King. Then you call your maester as soon as you realize that you cannot shit to get a laxative.

[A wilding]

When Varys sends Tyrion up that ladder (or, assists him dutifully by showing him the right way) he does not know the outcome. But as he decided to let Tyrion climb that [ladder], I don't think he cared if Tyrion, Tywin or both would die or survive. Tywin being forced to kill his own son might have been a success, too, in his eyes.

:agree:

Varys can't be sure what will happen but, if we accept he thought that with Tywin in power he was not going to be on the Small Council much longer, he has little to lose and most of the likely outcomes will be a plus. It just turned out that the best outcome (from his PoV) was the one that happened.

Though I still like the idea that Tywin was already poisoned by something slow acting, ensuring Tywin dies even if Tyrion fails to kill him. Tywin's removal from power is probably the most important result for Varys.

[MountainThatRides]

I like the theory in general, and it makes sense that Varys would engineer a plot against Tywin. We already know Varys is disposed to a Targaryen restoration. The realm was never unquestionably stable, not under any king; not only did Aerys's madness cause a lot of problems (re. the Stark murders), but there was also the Defiance of Duskendale, the Kingswood Brotherhood and other problems that plagued the realm. Likewise, during Robert's reign, you had a basic mismanagement of the kingdom leading to massive debt, a king who was largely uninterested, and the Greyjoy rebellion. Just as Tywin ruled the kingdom for Aerys, Jon Arryn ruled it for Robert, though the results differ greatly; either Jon Arryn was incompetent, or there were people working against him (the Lannisters and Littlefinger) the whole time. Another plausible theory is that Varys had wanted a Targaryen restoration since Robert took the throne, even before the kingdom fell into the hands of the Lannisters, and worked the factions against each other. I find this doubtful. Varys does what he can do for the realm, and I don't doubt that, at the beginning of Robert's reign, he did what he could to steer things in the right direction.

Then there's the discussion between Varys and Illyrio Mopatis, the first time we're clued in to Varys's Targaryen loyalty; this is further solidified when Varys goes to lengths to protect Daenerys from the small council's assassination attempts, by planting a spy to keep him abreast of the Targaryens and then warning Mormont when an attempt was impending. Perhaps Varys had something to do with getting Barristan Selmy out of King's Landing and delivering him to Illyrio, as well.

Then again, it poses just as many questions as it answers. We know from Varys's confession to Tyrion that he hates sorcery, and all men who aspire to use it. This could potentially set up a cool arc with Varys and Melisandre, but it also puts Varys's desire for a Targaryen restoration in question. He knows Daenerys has dragons, he says as much in the council meetings (putting it in a way that makes it seem like sailor's tales and ridiculous rumors, of course, to misdirect the Lannisters from regarding Daenerys as a threat). It seems like he'd know the goings-on all over Westeros, from the Wall to the Citadel, and might have an inkling about the connection between dragons and magic.

As far as the plot to kill Tywin, if there was a plot, I'd fully expect that Varys is involved. Perhaps the secret passage to Chataya's had been previously installed for Lord Tywin's use when he was the Hand for Aerys -- they were built for a King's Hand whose sense of honor did not permit anyone to learn about his habits. That fits Tywin fairly well. If Varys knew about Tywin's shameful secret, he might have delivered Shae to him for her confession, knowing that Tywin would make more use out of her than simply as a witness. Allowing Tyrion to go up to the bedchambers, knowing that Shae would be there, seems to make sense. The poison can be argued because if Varys wanted Tywin dead, he would have to be incapacitated for Tyrion to do the job. Perhaps he even moved that chest directly under the hanging crossbow, knowing Tyrion was quick enough to make use of it. The theory is wonderful, crackpot or not, but it leads into a wild realm of what-ifs.

[Happy Ent]

Perhaps the secret passage to Chataya's had been previously installed for Lord Tywin's use when he was the Hand for Aerys -- they were built for a King's Hand whose sense of honor did not permit anyone to learn about his habits.

That’s what Varys tell us. In fact, Varys tells Tyrion. Since, if I’m to be believed, he already plans to railroad Tyrion into killing his father, it would be in his interest to just make shit up.

[A wilding]

... it would be in his interest to just make shit up.

Though us readers have never yet caught Varys out in a downright lie. But of course he does not actually say that the tunnel was built for Tywin, he merely drops a hint that he might hope would later cause Tyrion to add two and two and get five.

It is quite possible that the tunnel was actually built for some other Hand and that Varys was simply being creative. As he was when he told the Small Council about a three headed dragon in Qarth immediately after telling them of a reported kraken sighting.

[Lord Varys]

Well, we don't have exact details about the Varys-Tywin relationship. Obviously, Varys ended up not falling in love with Tywin as Pycelle did during Aerys's reign. But I'm not sure if their mutual distaste is not exaggerated. Tywin made big words about heads and spikes when he sent Tyrion to King's Landing, but he ended up killing/firing no one of Robert's original Council men who remained in KL. Rather he rewarded Pycelle - by reinstating him -, and Littlefinger - by making him Lord of Harrenhal and Lord Paramount of the Trident.

Varys claimed that Lord Tywin had him watch Tyrion after he took over as Hand. More we do not know about their relationship. That Tywin guessed that Varys got Tyrion out of his cell does not necessarily mean that he was that suspicious about him. Varys simply was the only person still in KL who could pull such a thing off - and thus the natural suspect.

But if Varys suspected Tywin of intending to kill him, he would have acted first. By going underground, as he did, or by orchestrating his death. If he 'had danced the dance before' he should be able to off Tywin. He could use poison, or simply send a modified 'assassin bird' into his bedroom, or crawl into it himself. I do not doubt that Varys knows how to use various weapons.

[Lord Varys]

We caught Varys outright lying, for example when he told Ned that he was the most loyal friend Robert had the last 15 years. He lied either then, or when he talked with Illyrio about the Dothraki invasion.

The story about the tunnel to Chataya's makes sense. The person who ordered it built needed to be somebody with influence. A King´, or his Hand. I doubt that a member of the Council would be able to pull such a thing off (or feel the need to try it). As Chataya herself is not yet in her sixties (rather in her forties), the tunnel needed to be build during the reign of Aerys (or, maybe, under Jaehaerys). But we know that Jaehaerys mostly used all the personel he inherited from Egg, meaning that his Hand and Council men likely were old men with little to no need for secret sexual encounters in noble brothels.

[The theory that in Chataya's building was already a noble brothel before Chataya arrived in KL I do not believe.]

That makes Tywin the best candidate. And looking on his personality he is the only possible Hand left. The Kings, on the other hand, simply took what they wanted. Robert certainly did. Aerys most likely did, too, although we do not know much about his sex life (or if he was interested in other women).

If Varys's story would be an outright lie, at least I had no idea why there should be a secret entrance into a brothel.

[MountainThatRides]

Yes, but what Varys required was a patsy. If Lord Tywin Lannister mysteriously died to a case of crossbow-through-bowels with Tyrion still locked up in a black cell, Varys would have been the prime suspect. Who else could possibly know about a secret entrance into the Hand's bedchamber? Not only did he rid himself of Tywin, he threw the realm back into confusion by weakening the Lannister grip on the throne and setting Tyrion at irrevocable odds with his family. Think about the state of the Lannisters as of late-AFfC. Tywin is dead, Kevan is driven away by Cersei, Jaime separates himself by refocusing on the Kingsguard, Lancel joins the Warrior's Sons and Tyrion is off in exile. There is nobody left who can assume command of the House, and certainly no one comparable to Tywin. Cersei is gullible, reckless, impatient and blinded by her lust for absolute control. She essentially digs her own grave continuously since Robert's death.

Not only does Varys succeed in essentially castrating the Lannisters (aided quite a bit by the queen's incompetence), but he also orchestrates the potential for Tyrion to join Daenerys. Varys knows how smart Tyrion is. He survived the game of thrones, a boast that few others can make, not even the redoubtable Tywin. He knows what Daenerys could gain from enlisting Tyrion, just as he knows that the patricide will argue heavily in Tyrion's favor. A Lannister he may be, but he killed the man who brutally murdered Daenerys's sister-in-law, nephew and niece, and by doing so severed all formal ties with his House. At least until she claims the Iron Throne and gives Tyrion Casterly Rock.

[A wilding]

We caught Varys outright lying, for example when he told Ned that he was the most loyal friend Robert had the last 15 years. He lied either then, or when he talked with Illyrio about the Dothraki invasion.

No.

Varys actually said:

If there was one man in Kings Landing who was truly desperate to keep Robert Baratheon alive, it was me.

See the distinction? Ned hears Varys say that he was a loyal supporter of Robert, but that is not quite what he said. Varys may equally just have wanted to keep Robert alive so as to keep the realm stable until the point where he wanted it to collapse. As Illyrio said "What good is war now? Delay."

[schpat]

I don't think we can believe anything Varys says to anyone. Only through his actions will we see where his loyalty lies, and even then he may be playing a multilevel game.

I think we may never find out where his loyalties are.

[Happy Ent]

The story about the tunnel to Chataya's makes sense. [...]

That makes Tywin the best candidate.

This is a tangent, but an enjoyable one, so let me add the standard comment here:

If Lord Tywin really went to such extraordinary lengths to facilitate and hide his fornication with prostitute (contradicting everything we’ve heard or observed about the man), then why does he invite Shae into the Hand’s quarters? There are now 3 different Tywin characters needed to explain this:

1) “Official” Tywin, the man who loved his wife, and upon her death ceased to have sex. He doesn’t believe in half-measures, and thinks personal gratification is a weakness.

2) BizarroTywin1, the man who visited whores (while being married to Joanna) but orchestrated a huge conspiracy, including building a secret tunnel.

3) BizarroTywin2, the man who still uses whores (and cheap ones at that, in fact, his son’s leftovers), but does so in his own quarters, known to his guards.

The point is that the Tywin who built the tunnel has little in common with the Tywin who debased himself with Shae. Of course, people may change, but I simply don’t think the two pieces of the puzzle support each other very well. If anything, they shift the balance away from the idea that Shae was Tywin’s whore. (But it’s probably not shifting any balance at all.)

The “Varys planted Shae” theory requires only Official Tywin.

[MountainThatRides]

Assuming Tywin is exactly what he claims to be, and exactly what everyone thinks he is, then Varys planting Shae for Tyrion to find makes sense. It still requires boldness on Shae's part, and we know that while Shae is a whore she isn't stupid. She must fear Tywin Lannister; she knows his reputation, which is particularly unsavory in King's Landing. She knows how she was used in Tyrion's trial and made to lie in order to condemn him. She's very perceptive -- earlier, she had recognized Varys when Tyrion did not. Presumably, her confession was made out of fear of Tywin, forced from her by Cersei. So when Varys takes her to Tywin's bedchamber, undresses her and drapes the Hand's chain around her neck, she must be terrified. If something had gone awry and Tyrion had never killed Tywin, and he had found her there, she might have been in a dangerous situation.

If Varys had said something to manipulate her, he wouldn't have told her that Tyrion would show up as per his scheme. She's honestly surprised and scared to see him, after having called out to him, thinking he was his father. She says that Tywin will return soon, so either he has already been there and had sex with her, or she is simply saying that to scare Tyrion, out of fear for what he'll do to her.

There's nothing to indicate that Tywin was poisoned with a laxative; he was simply sitting on the privy taking a normal shit when Tyrion walked in. Widow's Blood is disproved by the emptying of his bowels upon expiration. He shows no obvious signs of discomfort or sickness; on the contrary, he comports himself in the usual Lord Tywin fashion, despite the disadvantage of being unarmed and on the privy vs. an angry dwarf with a crossbow.

We know Martin loves playing with his characters and giving them deep flaws. Nobody in his world is a paragon. Jaime became the Kingslayer, and only walked the road of redemption after losing the hand that slew Aerys. Tyrion is deformed, with other, less obvious flaws. Eddard Stark, the most honest and noble man in the Seven Kingdoms, fathered a bastard. Despite being good men who believe in the Night's Watch, Jon and Sam still both broke their vows. Renly is handsome and virile but he's buggering the Knight of Flowers -- not that homosexuality is a flaw, but it's clearly implied as a means to subvert our original opinion of him. The only characters that we see without flaw are the dead ones, like Ser Arthur Dayne; everyone in the series considers them through a rose-colored Myrish lens and we are never intimate with them, as we are through the PoV characters. For all we know, Ser Arthur might have been fucking his sister. Tywin's personality is inherently flawed in ways that he would consider virtuous -- his implacability, his disdain for Tyrion, his lack of mercy. Martin paints him out to be a hypocritical whoremonger which lends some justice to Tyrion's final defiance.

I have no doubt in my mind that Varys wanted Tywin dead, and probably nudged Tyrion in that direction, but there are too many dependencies when you consider him the engineer of the entire plot -- poisoning Tywin, planting Shae, et cetera. Obviously, some of the apparent flaws Martin gives his characters are obfuscation; we like to think that Eddard never fathered a bastard but takes Jon as his own, and suffers that stain on his honor, because of his promise to Lyanna. But we only assume this -- we have no concrete proof to disbelieve any of these things based on the information in the books, and sometimes I think we can read too much into something and overlook the obvious. In either case I prefer Tywin to have some secret shames, it makes his character far more interesting.

[Happy Ent]

There's nothing to indicate that Tywin was poisoned with a laxative; he was simply sitting on the privy taking a normal shit when Tyrion walked in. Widow's Blood is disproved by the emptying of his bowels upon expiration.

Nobody has ever claimed Tywin was poisoned with a laxative. Really. For years, it has only ever come up from people who want to discredit the One True Theory.

It is clear that Tywin is seriously constipated. After all, he’s been on the privy for quite a while, and clearly has not yet shat. I have no idea how you “disprove” Widow’s Blood using the observation that his bowels lose at the point of death.

She says that Tywin will return soon, so either he has already been there and had sex with her, or she is simply saying that to scare Tyrion, out of fear for what he'll do to her.

I prefer to think that Varys told her that Tywin will be back soon when he leads her to the bed. He then asks her do undress, wear the Hand’s chain, lie down, and “drink this.” So she’d genuinely think she just dozed off and Tywin can be back any minute.

[Happy Ent]

Let me quote myself fromthis old thread:

Varys leads her into the room. Covertly, openly, each taking a different route — I don’t much care. She’s been led covertly into the same room before, and Varys has led her into other rooms before with the purpose of facilitating sex. Now, he tells her she’s going to have sex with Tywin, who’s away on important business right now, but will be back presently. Whatever she does, she is not to leave the bed while waiting. Would she please undress and get under the blanket, and “why not put this chain on, while I move some furniture around for no purpose you can discern.”

At this point, Varys can also give her Sweetsleep to fix her in the bed securely. I prefer that version, because it reduces one of Varys’s variables. But he could also just leave her there. “Tywin will be very angry if you’re not in the bed when he returns. And Lord Tywin is a harsh master to those who displease him.”

I think this (or variations of it) explains Shae’s behaviour sufficiently well. I’m sure there are plenty of alternative scenarios as well. But the above version is pretty close to many of the ploys we’ve already seen (Shae trusting Varys to lead her to kinky sex in the Tower of the Hand, Sweetsleep), so it’s parsimonious in the sense that it doesn’t invent new poisons or character behaviours, reactions, or motivations.

(Post #71. Quote rather than link because all the quotemarks are broken after the last database update.)

[MountainThatRides]

Nobody has ever claimed Tywin was poisoned with a laxative. Really. For years, it has only ever come up from people who want to discredit the One True Theory.

It is clear that Tywin is seriously constipated. After all, he’s been on the privy for quite a while, and clearly has not yet shat. I have no idea how you “disprove” Widow’s Blood using the observation that his bowels lose at the point of death.

I prefer to think that Varys told her that Tywin will be back soon when he leads her to the bed. He then asks her do undress, wear the Hand’s chain, lie down, and “drink this.” So she’d genuinely think she just dozed off and Tywin can be back any minute.

There's no "clear" indication that Tywin was constipated. He just finished fucking his new whore and he's having a relaxing shit on the privy. The description of Widow's Blood is that it stops up the bowels and the bladder until a man dies in his own poisons. There's no indication that the blockage would miraculously stop upon death. It doesn't argue for or against Tywin being poisoned, really. That doesn't necessarily discount other poisons that might have been at Varys's disposal.

It's a bit of a stretch to think that Varys arranged all of this -- bringing in Shae, getting her naked, putting the chain on, giving her a pinch of sweetsleep, and rearranging furniture -- without Tywin knowing. He's right in the privy, which connects to the bedchamber, as Tyrion didn't have to leave the room to get to his father. Varys would have to engineer all of this BEFORE Jaime came and forced him to release Tyrion. He was down in the dungeons waiting for Tyrion, it's a little dubious to assume he went and collected Shae and had everything ready and waiting while Jaime went to unlock Tyrion's cell. That would give him a window of maybe a half hour at most. That also hinges on him knowing Tywin would be sitting on the privy, which is another leap. Just because he is constipated doesn't mean he is going to be sitting on the toilet for hours at a time. And if Varys has plans for Tyrion regarding Daenerys, he's putting a lot of faith in Tyrion to do everything according to his plan. Varys didn't know that Tywin would receive Tyrion that way. He might have easily called for his guards. He might have given up trying to shit and emerged from the privy just as Tyrion climbed out of the hearth.

That seems like way too many gambles for a man like Varys, who we know isn't really a risk-taker and prefers to play the game with subtlety. Unless, of course, he's a wizard, or he can see into the future or something.

[Happy Ent]

MtR, as I said many times, my version of the theory requires that Martinverse has a reliable poison that clogs up your bowels until the time of death and glues you to the privy shaft. If GRRM needs such a poison, he can just invent it. You’d need to argue that such a poison cannot exist in a fictional universe. Arguing about the possible effects of a substance in a universe where magic works (and that may or may not be called Widow’s Blood) seems futile.

As to the layout of the Hand’s chambers, and the distance between bedroom and privy, we’ve been over this many years ago, including somebody (Sophelia?) posting complete floor plans of medieval castles. If GRRM needs the privy to be far enough away from the bedroom, he can do that. We’re told there’s at least a closed door an a hallway.

[Liadin]

That also hinges on him knowing Tywin would be sitting on the privy, which is another leap. Just because he is constipated doesn't mean he is going to be sitting on the toilet for hours at a time.

It's been said before, but this is certainly a flaw in the theory. There may be a comment about Cersei being "glued to the privy" (is it mentioned exactly what's given to her? If that's her condition I suspect she has diarrhea, not the opposite), but still, constipated people don't just sit on toilets until the constipation goes away. Constipated people can still go about their daily lives, albeit uncomfortable and sitting on the toilet longer than most people.

(I do think it's odd that Tywin sat there for as long as he did--what, was he reading a magazine?--which may well indicate constipation, but that's not something Varys could have known for sure.)