Plot question, ASOS (Tyrion/Tywin)

[Datepalm]

Assuming he was poisoned with Widow's Blood, are you saying that Tywin would have died anyway, despite any interference from Tyrion?

WB is a killing poison, from the description, and Cercei's recovery due to a very small dose. Theres also the fixation on Tywins corpse in FFC, which might mean its decomposing more quickly or...er, something - whatever GRRM needs for plot reasons, really. Its certainly been set up every which way that Tywin could be poisoned though.

[A wilding]

Assuming he was poisoned with Widow's Blood, are you saying that Tywin would have died anyway, despite any interference from Tyrion?

That's my belief. It ensures that whatever Tyrion does or fails to do, Tywin is not going to be around to set the realm to rights, instead Cersei will be in charge messing it up further. Which is probably the main thing from Varys' point of view - having Tyrion primed to support Dany is likely just a bonus.

[Happy Ent]

What wildling said.

Do note that Varys could have killed Tywin at any damn timed he wanted. Because Varys had access to a secret passage to Tywin’s bedroom. That’s huge.

Varys had to communicate this information to Tyrion, when Tyrion was still the King’s Hand, but only chose to do so at the very last moment. (The scene where Tyrion finds Shae in his bed and searches the room for the secret entrance is literally the last scene before the battle of the Blackwater.)

Tyrion then conveniently forgets about this huge security breach and fails to tell his father (now the Hand) for hundred of pages. It is of course important for GRRM’s plot that Tyrion has forgotten this, and one of the few plot holes in the entire series.

There is no way that Tywin knows about this secret entrance. It would be utterly foolish to post guards outside your quarters when you know that your main enemy at court can sneak into your bedroom whenever he pleases.

Varys could have killed Tywin at any time. He chose not to. He chose to needlessly tip his hand about the existence of the secret passage, because he preferred Tyrion to kill him later. And should this plan have gone haywire, Varys certainly would have made sure Tywin died anyway.

[SFDanny]

But note that it is a problem either way: if Varys really was just bullied into the whole thing by Jaime then he would have to go down to the harbour and find a ship that leaves at dawn, no questions asked. That's absurd.

While I agree that it's absurd to think Jaime allowed Varys the time unaccompanied to go and search out a ship to take Tyrion, I don't think it is absurd for Varys to have had contact with the captains of many ships, especially ones going to other Westerosi ports and those of the Free Cities, given his network of spies and contacts with the "Illyrios" of those regions. It is not a stretch to think contact goes on between these people on a regular basis and Varys would know of any agents he can rely on who are currently in King's Landing's harbor. So no time is required for Varys to prepare for a ship to take Tyrion away. He just shows up at a ship he knows will do his bidding and they take the dwarf aboard. Alternatively, we can believe Tywin and think that the ship is one that has been ordered to take Tyrion to the Wall and all has been planned before hand. Either way the ship doesn't present much of a problem.

In general, I have to say I like Corbon's take on this much better than the Varys the Mastermind version. This looks much like Varys taking advantage of an opportunity as it presents itself, rather than a long thought out detailed plot involving poisons and placing Shae in the bed. I also think the version which has Tywin as a willing user of prostitutes fits better with his personality as we know it. It isn't the prostitutes who he finds offensive; it is the public treatment of such women as equals or as simple human beings that Tywin finds offensive. Screw the whores in private as much as you want. Just don't let anyone see you care about them, and god forbid, don't marry one of them.

That last point speaks to the one real point to this theory - would Tywin allow Shae to wear the chain of office? My answer is that he doesn't need to have had anything to do with it - it could have easily have been something Shae does as he leaves to go to the shitter, or it could be something Tywin liked in private, but would never allow in public.

[Datepalm]

Varys could have killed Tywin at any time. He chose not to. He chose to needlessly tip his hand about the existence of the secret passage, because he preferred Tyrion to kill him later. And should this plan have gone haywire, Varys certainly would have made sure Tywin died anyway.

or he reveals the secret passage to buy his trust or because he makes a slip. Assuming Varys was plannng assasination-by-Tyrion at this point is stretching credulity - Tyrions defining character trait at this point is still loyalty to his family. Even if Varys is perfectly aware of the animosity between Tyrion and Tywin, Tyrion at this point still has way, way too much to lose, and certainly no reason to flee Westeros.

[Happy Ent]

Even if Varys is perfectly aware of the animosity between Tyrion and Tywin, Tyrion at this point still has way, way too much to lose, and certainly no reason to flee Westeros.

So what’s Varys to do? Look at it from his perspective. He needs Tyrion to kill Tywin.

The first interaction Varys and Tyrion have, way back in Clash is this: Tyrion barges into the small council and announces his handship to Varys and the others. He then has a private word with Cersei, and rides downtown to meet Shae.

A gust of merriment greeted him as he shoved into the inn’s common room. He recognized Chella’s throaty chuckle and the lighter music of Shae’s laughter. The girl was seated by the hearth, sipping wine at a round wooden table with three of the Black Ears he’d left to guard her and a plump man whose back was to him. The innkeeper, he assumed . . . until Shae called Tyrion by name and the intruder rose.

“My good lord, I am so pleased to see you,” he gushed, a soft eunuch’s smile on his powdered face.

Tyrion stumbled. “Lord Varys. I had not thought to see you here.” The Others take him, how did he find them so quickly?

“Forgive me if I intrude,” Varys said. “I was taken by a sudden urge to meet your young lady.”

So Varys immediately identifies Shae as the lever by which to move Tyrion. Then follows chapter after chapter, for two books, in which almost all interaction between Tyrion and Varys is about one thing: Varys keeps the Tyrion–Shae relationship alive. There is no reason for him to do this, except for what I claim is his very first plan: to engineer a simple, old-fashioned crime of passion. Varys can be forgiven for thinking that Tyrion loves Shae truly and deeply. It sure looks that way to him. So he plans, from the beginning, to let Tyrion find Shae in Tywin’s bedroom.

It’s a very simple plan. Not the least outrageous, dangerous, or complicated. It’s the first idea anybody would get, in particular after finding Shae. And it costs very little: the main investments are (1) to keep the Tyrion–Shae relationship aflame, and (2) reveal the secret entrance to Tyrion. We see him do both. There is no reason for Varys to not prepare for this plan, nor for concocting a more outrageous scenario (say, something Littlefinger-style, involving drunken knights that act as couriers for poisoned headdresses, and trusting a troupe of jousting dwarves to enrage Tyrion at a wedding). Varys would have needed to think of something – he couldn’t trust fate to deliver a regicide into his lap, nor could he divine the Tysha backstory.

[Datepalm]

It's a very simple plan. Not the least outrageous, dangerous, or complicated. It's the first idea anybody would get, in particular after finding Shae.

He has a far better guarentee at killing Tywin with a good old fashioned vial of poison (and framing Tyrion or anyone for it). It is a complicated plan, and has too many variables in the form of no less than three human personalities: Tywin, Tyrion and Shae herself. Cultivating Tyrion-Shae is just good politics under any circumstances - its Tyrions biggest weakness and its in Varys hands and Tyrion is grateful. Manipulative Scheme Hat Trick FTW.

[Happy Ent]

He has a far better guarentee at killing Tywin with a good old fashioned vial of poison (and framing Tyrion or anyone for it).

But Tyrion must have actually done it. Tyrion himself must sever the ties to house Lannister in his own heart. You can’t just frame him.

[Datepalm]

But Tyrion must have actually done it. Tyrion himself must sever the ties to house Lannister in his own heart. You can't just frame him.

But why would Varys want Tyrion anyway? At that point, lacking regicide and parricide, getting Tyrion away from House Lannister is a huge undertaking. Why bother?

[Happy Ent]

But why would Varys want Tyrion anyway? At that point, lacking regicide and parricide, getting Tyrion away from House Lannister is a huge undertaking. Why bother?

Varys needs loyal lords in all the major houses once house Targaryen is restored. Edric Storm is an example. Getting the heir to the Rock on Dany’s side would be great.

[Miriel]

Varys needs loyal lords in all the major houses once house Targaryen is restored. Edric Storm is an example. Getting the heir to the Rock on Dany’s side would be great.

How has Varys worked to ensure that Edric will be loyal to Dany when/if she lands?

[jmastar]

How has Varys worked to ensure that Edric will be loyal to Dany when/if she lands?

And isnt it Davos who is sending Edric away? I see Jon murdering Bran before Davos ships off Edric to Dany but i guess stranger things have happend

[Datepalm]

Varys needs loyal lords in all the major houses once house Targaryen is restored. Edric Storm is an example. Getting the heir to the Rock on Dany's side would be great.

Tyrions a terrible candidate for that. Showing up with the twisted little kin slaying monkey demon on her side is really going to help Dany's cause. He dosen't have any independent wealth, lands, titles or even a reputation to go on. Jaime is the Lannister brother to cultuivate here, and igniting some fatal crime of passion of Cercei as likely a possibility.

[SFDanny]

So Varys immediately identifies Shae as the lever by which to move Tyrion. Then follows chapter after chapter, for two books, in which almost all interaction between Tyrion and Varys is about one thing: Varys keeps the Tyrion–Shae relationship alive. There is no reason for him to do this, except for what I claim is his very first plan: to engineer a simple, old-fashioned crime of passion. Varys can be forgiven for thinking that Tyrion loves Shae truly and deeply. It sure looks that way to him. So he plans, from the beginning, to let Tyrion find Shae in Tywin’s bedroom.

Of course there is many good reasons for Varys to help Tyrion in his relationship with Shae. Tyrion is the acting Hand of the King. He has not only the loyalty of his mountain clans he brings with him, the Lannister troops in the city, but also the City Watch. Do you really doubt that Tyrion can have any of the small council's heads on a pike, beside Cersei's and the absent Jaime's? If he doesn't already know Tywin gave Tyrion just such orders for any councillors he found disloyal then his conduct with the Grand Maester and with Janos make it clear to everyone. So, Varys has every reason to cultivate a relationship with Tyrion, both for his personal safety and for the maintenance of his power, that has nothing to do with any plot to pit father against son.

Varys is not some omnipotent super spy who can see so far into the future that he foresees Shae as someone he can use to get Tyrion to kill his father. This theory asks us to assume much too much about Varys's power.

[Happy Ent]

Varys is not some omnipotent super spy who can see so far into the future that he foresees Shae as someone he can use to get Tyrion to kill his father.

I’m not saying he’s omnipotent, or can foresee the future.

Quite the opposite. We are in Tyrion’s head, and I don’t really think a simple crime of passion would have worked at all. (And it certainly did not come to pass.) In the end, the plan didn’t come out as Varys had originally planned it at all. Tyrion had lost much of his potential political usefulness (being now a traitor and kinslayer, in addition to being disliked by the people of Kings Landing in the first place), and the ruse with Shae was completely orthogonal to Tyrion’s motivation.

Varys’s plan did not work out as envisioned.

That doesn’t mean he didn’t have one. May claim is simply that Varys did have a plan, and that the plan was both crude and parsimonious: place Shae in Tywin’s bed and have Tyrion kill Tywin. Omnipotence is not a prerequisite for that. And had Varys been able to see into the future, he wouldn’t have needed Shae, because Tysha was quite enough.

From my perspective, the onus is on the other side: are you telling me that Varys had nothing planned? Do you really think that he was so omnipotent as being able to look into the future and guess that the Tysha story would be revealed just at the right moment, when he needed it? (See? This kind of argument works both ways. Mine assume less masterminding. It merely posits that Varys, from the beginning, had a simple, crude, parsimonious, and easily modified plan.)

[SFDanny]

I’m not saying he’s omnipotent, or can foresee the future.

Quite the opposite. We are in Tyrion’s head, and I don’t really think a simple crime of passion would have worked at all. (And it certainly did not come to pass.) In the end, the plan didn’t come out as Varys had originally planned it at all. Tyrion had lost much of his potential political usefulness (being now a traitor and kinslayer, in addition to being disliked by the people of Kings Landing in the first place), and the ruse with Shae was completely orthogonal to Tyrion’s motivation.

Varys’s plan did not work out as envisioned.

Ok

That doesn’t mean he didn’t have one. May claim is simply that Varys did have a plan, and that the plan was both crude and parsimonious: place Shae in Tywin’s bed and have Tyrion kill Tywin. Omnipotence is not a prerequisite for that. And had Varys been able to see into the future, he wouldn’t have needed Shae, because Tysha was quite enough.

I agree totally that Varys has a plan, or to be more precise many plans, but I don't think we know what they are. Or rather, we have no real idea what his motives are. What I buy is that he looks to play others against each other for some gain, personal or political. So I have no problem with him looking to use father against son and vice versa but the idea that he has long planned out the planting of a drugged Shae in his unknowing father's bed in order to provoke Tyrion into patricide is way too far of a stretch. The details of the crime are too easily explained as something that Varys has an opportunistic hand in when he sees the events of the evening unfold.

From my perspective, the onus is on the other side: are you telling me that Varys had nothing planned?

No

Do you really think that he was so omnipotent as being able to look into the future and guess that the Tysha story would be revealed just at the right moment, when he needed it? (See? This kind of argument works both ways. Mine assume less masterminding. It merely posits that Varys, from the beginning, had a simple, crude, parsimonious, and easily modified plan.)

The Tysha story is revealed much earlier than that. Tyrion talks of his marriage at thirteen at a small council meeting many months before the Battle of the Blackwater. He again reveals it to Sansa on their wedding night. If the first doesn't provoke Varys to investigate and discover Tysha's name and the story behind the marriage and its ending, then it is likely Varys's little birds start the process in reporting the tale to their master. But no, I don't think Varys uses this story to provoke Tyrion to kill his father. Rather I think Varys likely listens in on the tale as told that night by Jaime to Tyrion and when they argue Varys seizes on the knowledge and the knowledge of Shae being in Tywin's bed to give Tyrion the opportunity to either get himself killed, caught, or in someway relieve Varys from being exposed as helping Tyrion escape. The fact it is Tywin that is killed means that rather than a failed escape attempt on his hands, Varys now has to run from his power base and hide to save his own life. Not that the outcome doesn't have many advantages to enemies of House Lannister, if Varys really is one of those, but the immediate effect is a negative one for the eunuch.

[A wilding]

Rather I think Varys likely listens in on the tale as told that night by Jaime to Tyrion and when they argue Varys seizes on the knowledge and the knowledge of Shae being in Tywin's bed to give Tyrion the opportunity to either get himself killed, caught, or in someway relieve Varys from being exposed as helping Tyrion escape. The fact it is Tywin that is killed means that rather than a failed escape attempt on his hands, Varys now has to run from his power base and hide to save his own life.

The moment Tywin sees Tyrion he deduces that Varys is responsible for Tyrion's escape; he also declares that he is going to have Varys executed for it.

If Varys had not already thrown away his Small Council position, then sending Tyrion up that ladder did so with a vengeance.

[Datepalm]

That doesn't mean he didn't have one. May claim is simply that Varys did have a plan, and that the plan was both crude and parsimonious: place Shae in Tywin's bed and have Tyrion kill Tywin.

This is not a good plan. It is in fact a really, really terrible plan. It the kind of thing Cercei might think of - not Varys.

Moreover, Varys does not need this plan at this point. Varys plans, to the best of our knowledge, are to keep things as stable as possible until its time for Dany to arrive, at which point its all supposed to go to hell in a handbasket. The one thing that truly concerns him are things moving too fast. As far as Varys knows at the beginning of CoK, any targaryed restoration is still years away - Dany is off pregnant someplace, Viserys is a useless lout, the Dornish alliance is a long long way fruition. He's still looking at a timescale of years here before any plans need to be put into action.

Secondly, choosing Tyrion as domeone to woo to the Targ cause is useless at this point too. He has no support, no allies, no respect, no reputation without his family, and seperate him from his family - in the most brutal and extreme way - is exactly why Varys plans? Like I said - he should cultuivate Jaime. If Jaime returns from exile, he'll have people flocking to him, he'll have men who trust him to lead their armies, he'll have a name and a reputation worth something. Tyrion is a completely unknown second son at this point. (He's not heir either, practically speaking. He can only gain from Dany, not give.) Its only after Varys has gotten to know him that he might have some value to the Targ cause as an advisor/mentor/administrator/whatever of ubquestioninin loyalty, almost solely due to personality and knowledge of court politics.

[Happy Ent]

This is not a good plan. It is in fact a really, really terrible plan. It the kind of thing Cercei might think of - not Varys.

Ah. So some people don’t like my theory because it makes Varys a mastermind who can see into the future. You don’t like it because it makes him Cersei. Me, I’m somewhat in the middle. I think Varys from the beginning has a pretty good, utterly prosaic plan. His actions are consistent with that plan. Obviously, he masterfully adjusts his plan as time passes.

Moreover, Varys does not need this plan at this point. Varys plans, to the best of our knowledge, are to keep things as stable as possible until its time for Dany to arrive, at which point its all supposed to go to hell in a handbasket.

Oh, but he also keeps Robert’s bastards happy. Gendry and Edric Storm. Because if and when his master plan for a Targaryen restoration bears fruit, he’ll need someone to put in Storm’s End. Could be one of those two, could be somebody else.

Tyrion’s claim to his ancestral seat is certainly no worse than Gendry and Edric Storm. So it would be useful to woo Tyrion into treason. He probably as a handful of other options – Tyrek Lannister springs to mind. But getting Tyrion estranged from his family is a low risk/high payoff plan. So it’s an obvious thing for Varys to attempt, or at least lay the foundation for.

[Datepalm]

Ah. So some people don't like my theory because it makes Varys a mastermind who can see into the future. You don't like it because it makes him Cersei. Me, I'm somewhat in the middle. I think Varys from the beginning has a pretty good, utterly prosaic plan. His actions are consistent with that plan. Obviously, he masterfully adjusts his plan as time passes.

Stringing Tyrion along with whatever tools he's got is certainly good thinking, and so is eventually turning him against the Lannisters - but he hasn't a shot in hell at that at that point. After the Targaryes restoration, they'll put whomever they like in Storms End and Casterly Rock - Grey Worm and Daario, possibly. What they need now is allies that bring something with them and have something to gain, and Tyrion, as of early COK, has neither.

Tyrion's claim to his ancestral seat is certainly no worse than Gendry and Edric Storm. So it would be useful to woo Tyrion into treason. He probably as a handful of other options – Tyrek Lannister springs to mind. But getting Tyrion estranged from his family is a low risk/high payoff plan. So it's an obvious thing for Varys to attempt, or at least lay the foundation for.

Hes obviously laying the foundation for anything and everything - keeping Shae and Tyrions weaknesses up in the air to use when the opportunity strikes. Which it does, and he does. There is no way to assume he was planning to specifically plant Shae in Tywins bed in early COK.