Plot question, ASOS (Tyrion/Tywin)

[Datepalm]

Oh yes don't get me wrong, I'm sure Varys planned everything in hopes that Tyrion would rage and kill his father. But that couldn't have been his master plan. Too many things could go wrong. (Even pawns sometimes don't do what they're supposed to do!) Whereas merely enraging Tyrion would be rather simple and likely given the setup.

Although it's possible he did know about Tysha on his own. But then it would also require him knowing that Jaime would reveal the truth to Tyrion, which I'm not sure anyone could have known. So yeah, I stick to my theory that Tywin's death was just a bonus.

I think the original Tysha story is plenty enraging, really. Anyway, yeah, sending up Tyrion would undoubtedly get the Lannister family therapist a couple mortgage payments, and possibly much more, so its win-win for Varys. The one thing he knows won't happen is a father-son hugout.

[Miriel]

- Jaime shows up one night, demanding he free Tyrion. Varys thinks about it, and reckons - why the hell not. Maybe he'll be useful over in the east.

- Tywin is independently screwing Shae. Varys knows this is a good guarentee for making Tyrion lose it completely (having eavesdropped on Tyrion telling Shae about Tysha back in COK), and will bind him to the eastern cause properly. He goes and poisons Tywin and positions the furniture. The worst thing that happens is that is dosen't work, in which case he'll just do it himself.

Thats it - it dosen't require Varys to have been planning it since COK or improbably Kellhusian manipulativeness. Its a longish shot for Varys - but its simply executed and has no risk.

Does Jaime ever leave Varys alone from when he shows up in his chambers? I did not get the sense he did. So all the goodies (crossbow, poison, Shae) had to be in place prior to Jaime showing up demanding Varys free Tyrion.

[A wilding]

Varys organised a ship to get Tyrion to the Free Cities. It seems fairly unlikely that Jaime stuck by his side while he did this. Nor were they together when Jaime went into Tyrion's cell.

Generally I see little reason why Jaime would not let Varys out of his sight. He thought he had Varys cowed, and that Varys would not dare to disobey him.

[Datepalm]

Does Jaime ever leave Varys alone from when he shows up in his chambers? I did not get the sense he did. So all the goodies (crossbow, poison, Shae) had to be in place prior to Jaime showing up demanding Varys free Tyrion.

Not necessarily. For one thing, theres a galley waiting, that can't be arranged instantly, and it was very likely Varys and not Jaime that did it. Varys only needs a few minutes to slip some poison in wine and plant the weapons.

[Happy Ent]

Does Jaime ever leave Varys alone from when he shows up in his chambers? I did not get the sense he did. So all the goodies (crossbow, poison, Shae) had to be in place prior to Jaime showing up demanding Varys free Tyrion.

We don't know.

Here's Jaime "amushing" Varys:

He had waited in the eunuch's chambers that night, when at last he had decided not to let his little brother die. [Jaime, Feast]

And here's Jaime freeing Tyrion:

"Is it day or night up above? I've lost all sense of time."

"Three hours past midnight. The city sleeps." [Tyrion, Storm]

We can assume that it's the same night, but otherwise we know absolutely nothing. Even the "same night" thing is mainly based on Jaime later telling us that he hadn't slept since the "ambush".

So Varys has a few hours, at best. Is Jaime watching him the whole time? We don't know.

But note that it is a problem either way: if Varys really was just bullied into the whole thing by Jaime then he would have to go down to the harbour and find a ship that leaves at dawn, no questions asked. That's absurd.

Under the Varys Is a Mastermind theory, he has to do some poisoning and furniture arranging. The easiest way to make this problem go away is just to assume that Varys had his little birds do it. No problem, certainly not compared to conjuring up ships in the middle of the night.

ETA: Datepalm beat me. But I had quotes!

[Miriel]

Datepalm, A Wilding, Happy Ent: It does seem that the ship makes it quite likely Jaime had to cut Varys loose at some point post his ambushing him. I don't see them trudging the docks together somehow.

Still seems to me a stupid risk for Jaime to take though ...

[Datepalm]

ETA: Datepalm beat me. But I had quotes!

And wildling beat me. But I did reread the chapter. The conversation Jaime and Tyrion have is frankly wierd if you're not in the atmosphere of the book. Also, Varys is incredibly sinister in it ("wetly shining eyes", creepy monologue about torture chambers, giggles, threats that Tyrion will never find his way out, actually saying "your path is down".) After being shown increasingly sympathetically throughout COK and SOS. Hes got an "up to something nasty" quality to him.

Miriel - what choice does he have? He dosen't have the resources to organize a ship himself, and he's way too noticeable to tag along with Varys to the docks inconspicously.

[Miriel]

And wildling beat me. But I did reread the chapter. The conversation Jaime and Tyrion have is frankly wierd if you're not in the atmosphere of the book. Also, Varys is incredibly sinister in it ("wetly shining eyes", creepy monologue about torture chambers, giggles, threats that Tyrion will never find his way out, actually saying "your path is down".) After being shown increasingly sympathetically throughout COK and SOS. Hes got an "up to something nasty" quality to him.

Miriel - what choice does he have? He dosen't have the resources to organize a ship himself, and he's way too noticeable to tag along with Varys to the docks inconspicously.

Am a bit out of my depth in this discussion, need to go back and do a re-read myself--the details are fuzzy to me.

That being said, he had no real choice if he was to save Tyrion. But the minute he lets Varys out of his sight, he runs the risk of Varys bolting and telling Cersei or someone (here I keep thinking about Ned and LF). And while I appreciate what A Wilding said up-thread about Jaime having Varys cowed, my sense is that would only last so long as he was in close proximity to him--once Varys was free from jaime I can see him heading right to Cersei and raising the alarm had it suited Varys' own ends. So I don't agree Jaime cowed him into cooperation (and to that extent then I agree Varys wanted Tyrion free).

In my own mind when I thought of the events, I pictured Jaime grabbing Varys and then staying with him right up until he parted ways w/ them outside Tyrion's cell. It has been quite a while since I have done a re-read, truth be told. Thats why I jumped in when I did, b/c your scenario was so at odds with my-clearly flawed--recollection.

Will re-read next time before I jump in

*slinks away, chagrined*

[Datepalm]

In my own mind when I thought of the events, I pictured Jaime grabbing Varys and then staying with him right up until he parted ways w/ them outside Tyrion's cell. It has been quite a while since I have done a re-read, truth be told. Thats why I jumped in when I did, b/c your scenario was so at odds with my-clearly flawed--recollection.

Its certainly the scenario that makes more sense if Jaime has the luxury of being careful, but he dosen't, and time is short. Hes also essentially in Varys mercy - Verys could toss Tyrion overboard that ship and Jaime would never know. Varys must have been pretty convincing, maybe crying that Tyrion was such a good friend or something, and Jaime for his part simply threatened that no matter what happened, Varys was a dead man. Really, the whole thing only works if we assume Jaime was being a bit delusional and Varys willingly cooperated in getting Tyrion out - both of which are perfectly acceptable.

[corbon]

If tyrion doesnt catch tywin on the "pot" there is no way he is getting out of the chamber tho......

the whole poison theory rests on this and I say again it is not required (though it is possible).

There are multiple possible, even probable if Varys knows Shae is currently there, scenarios in which Tyrion, emerging from the secret passage, catches Tywin 'at a disadvantage' (asleep, mid-coitus, on the shitter, in a bathtub, etc).

Even if he does not, it is apparent from what we witnessed (and should be apparent to all from general attitudes of the characters) that Tywin is utterly contemptuous of Tyrion and therefore utterly unafraid.

Should Tyrion emerge to find Tywin not at any disadvantage, Tywin is still going to 'talk' (abuse mostly) to Tyrion before calling the guards simply because that is the nature of the man and the situation. He can't imagine Tyrion hurting him in any way and is so full of hate that he couldn't possibly stop himself from talking. I mean, the classic 'bad guy talks to much' is always because they have exactly the same faults as Tywin - extreme pride and arrogance concealing huge insecurities. Tywin is smart enough and has made it his modus operandi to talk as little as possible in public (it is scarier and shows more power), but in private to his hated son?

Consequently it doesn't much matter what Tywin's situation is when Tyrion emerges. There is always going to be a confrontation.

And given there is a confrontation between an enraged (Shae, and Tysha) dwarf who is a proven 'scrapper' and an arrogant lord in his bedchamber who can't conceive of the dwarf hurting him, there is a fair bet who is going to come out on top if it comes to 'blows' - if Varys even cares.

If Tyrion is killed by Tywin then Tywin becomes a kinslayer. Win for Varys.

If Tyrion kills Tywin, win for Varys.

[Ser Doctor]

I really don't like this theory.

It seems too convoluted and pointless. I expect better of Martin.

[corbon]

I really don't like this theory.

It seems too convoluted and pointless. I expect better of Martin.

That is only because people have needlessly complicated it (IMO).

The base is wonderfully simple.

1. Tywin is screwing Shae (probably). We know for certain she is naked in his bedchamber whether Tywin was aware or it or not.

2. Varys knows (of course!) and probably even helps facilitate it.

We know he has brought Shae to Tyrion in the same location to avoid public notice before. Whether Tywin is screwing Shae with Varys' help (probable) or being set up by Varys and Shae (improbable) does not matter.

3. Varys knows Tyrion and Tywin well enough to predict a messy situation should a condemned Tyrion find Tywin with Shae...

4. Jaime asks Varys to let Tyrion escape. The escape route is linked to the secret passages into the Tower of the Hand.

5. It is easy, even totally unplanned, for a quick thinking Varys to manipulate Tyrion into visiting his father during the escape. Planned or unplanned is unimportant.

6. A confrontation between Tyrion and Tywin can only be bad for house Lannister (and thus good for Varys) at this stage - unless they reconcile (and how likely is that!)

7. It isn't necessary for Tywin to be taking a dump when Tyrion appears. Any confrontation at all is going to end badly for Lannister and not for Varys.

All the complicated planning and poisoning and other stuff is possible, but completely unnecessary in truth. I agree that GRRM is better than that, but he didn't write it!

[Darklich528]

6. A confrontation between Tyrion and Tywin can only be bad for house Lannister (and thus good for Varys) at this stage - unless they reconcile (and how likely is that!)

I think this is the most important point to take away. The rest of the plan and the details can be written however - it's doesn't really matter. What matters is that Varys was in on it, and he expected some kind of bitter confrontation between the Lannisters. The only option which would not have benefited Varys was a reconciliation between Tyrion and his father, which was nigh impossible at that point.

I do think his "real" goal was to get Tyrion to meet Dany, but that could have happened with or without Tyrion climbing up to the tower of the hand. He was already doomed to die and running. His sister he hated was in power and his father disowned him. I can't think of a good reason why he wouldn't run head-first to the free cities after escaping.

[Datepalm]

I do think his "real" goal was to get Tyrion to meet Dany, but that could have happened with or without Tyrion climbing up to the tower of the hand. He was already doomed to die and running. His sister he hated was in power and his father disowned him. I can't think of a good reason why he wouldn't run head-first to the free cities after escaping.

I think the real goal is to kill Tywin - the one thing we really know Varys to be after is instability. Tywin is maybe the one figure that can avert that right there and then. Whatever happens, Varys wants Tywin out, gaining Tyrion is minor bonus and more of gamble. Tyrion just isn't that special.

[Darklich528]

Tyrion just isn't that special.

I disagree, but it's only speculation at this point so I won't comment further.

As for your other point, for Varys to expect Tyrion to kill his father is a little bit of a stretch, I think. Even if Varys led Shae up himself, poisoned both of them and planted the crossbow, you have to consider two things.

First, that kinslaying is the complete and ultimate dishonor which will instantly send you to one of the seven hells and Tyrion knows this. This may be a minor point considering the position Tyrion was in (about to be beheaded) but I felt it was important to mention it.

Second and by far the most important, I got the impression that what prompted Tyrion to climb the tower of the hand in the first place was the reveal that Tysha was not a whore, which Jaime revealed to him. I believe that he would have just boarded the ship and left if not for that bit of information.

In order for that to work, Varys would not only need to put Shae there, poison both of them, plant to crossbow and everything else he did, but he would also need to have manipulated Jaime into revealing the truth to Tyrion as he released him from his cell. Varys is pretty influential, but that I just can't get behind. There's no way he could be certain that would happen.

[Datepalm]

I disagree, but it's only speculation at this point so I won't comment further.

As for your other point, for Varys to expect Tyrion to kill his father is a little bit of a stretch, I think. Even if Varys led Shae up himself, poisoned both of them and planted the crossbow, you have to consider two things.

First, that kinslaying is the complete and ultimate dishonor which will instantly send you to one of the seven hells and Tyrion knows this. This may be a minor point considering the position Tyrion was in (about to be beheaded) but I felt it was important to mention it.

Second and by far the most important, I got the impression that what prompted Tyrion to climb the tower of the hand in the first place was the reveal that Tysha was not a whore, which Jaime revealed to him. I believe that he would have just boarded the ship and left if not for that bit of information.

In order for that to work, Varys would not only need to put Shae there, poison both of them, plant to crossbow and everything else he did, but he would also need to have manipulated Jaime into revealing the truth to Tyrion as he released him from his cell. Varys is pretty influential, but that I just can't get behind. There's no way he could be certain that would happen.

The problem is that once Tyrion has gone up the ladder, no way is Varys letting Tywin stay concious, at best (or more sensibly, alive.) Tyrion can't go up, have a nice chat, and then come down and head off back to the secret ship again. If Tyrion can't be relied on to kill Tywin (which is a strech) then Varys will do it. Odds are Varys was right behind Tyrion, making sure of the variables. The chapter ends with Tywins death, not with the escape - theres no reason to assume the next sentence isn't, "Tyrion put up the crossbow and turned away from his fathers corpse, to find Varys, moist and shiny, standing behind him silently, holding a brick inside a sock and a vial of deadly poison. "Ah, this won't be needed then."

[FalseSpring]

I agree with the posters that say that Varys took a chance - after all, Tyrion isn't special or valuable to him. The only thing that would indicate Tyrion is special is that Varys never mentioned the existence of Dany to him while he was in power.

A paralell I thought of is how Tyrion sent Myrcella to dorne, and only later realized how she might be crowned in dorne. It was a clever thing to do, but it was actually accidental on Tyrion's part. Now, Varys is alot more precise than Tyrion, but I believe the same thing happened to him. He just got lucky with Tyrion killing Tywin.

[Snowmelter]

I think Varys drugged her with Sweetsleep, and he had no plans about her waking up in the first place. By this time, they are very late because Varys had no idea the Jaime–Tyrion confrontation would take so long. (Varys didn’t know about Tysha.)

That being said, with regards with the guards, it’s easily fixed. For example like this: When Varys led Tysha into the Hand’s quarters, he instructed the guards to stay out of the room. “Lord Tywin likes to play it rough. So whatever you hear tonight, you are to not enter the chambers under any circumstances.” Note, indeed, that we have a quite similar scene where Jaime guards King Aerys’s bedroom and also doesn’t enter the room.

Lord Tywin himself is of course glued to the toilet, so (if we buy that the drug works as I say it does) he couldn’t do much. Of course, you may start a debate about the effects of a fictional poison, and we’ve had exactly that discussion many times over the years. (I find it futile. The thing does what GRRM needs it to do.)

Anyway, Shae waking up is a problem either way, and I don’t think Varys was very happy about it. She might even have told Tyrion that she isn’t actually Tywin’s lover, which would have destroyed the whole (original) plan; screaming isn’t even necessary. Varys misjudged the amount of Sweetsleep, and the time it would take to get from the cell to the room.

but GRRM says that Widow's blood shuts down a mans bowels and bladder, thus drowning him in his own waste. This is the opposite of being glued to the toilet. The poison I think you are thinking of is the poison the Reeds use, that the Ironborn complain causes a man to squirt his life away in brown and red showers down his legs. Of course, Varys could have access to this unnamed poison as well. I really like the theory overall.

[Happy Ent]

but GRRM says that Widow's blood shuts down a mans bowels and bladder, thus drowning him in his own waste. This is the opposite of being glued to the toilet. The poison I think you are thinking of is the poison the Reeds use, that the Ironborn complain causes a man to squirt his life away in brown and red showers down his legs. Of course, Varys could have access to this unnamed poison as well. I really like the theory overall.

I manifestly am not thinking of the Reed poison, because Tywin clearly is constipated, not incontinent. (He’s been on the toilet for quite some time, but his bowels empty only at the point of death.) So Widow’s Blood is closer to that.

Let me repeat both version of the argument, the strong and the weak one:

Strong argument

I claim that Widows’s Blood is exactly the poison needed, it’s what Tyrion stole from Pycelle, and it’s what he used on Cersei. I can prove none of that, and readily admit that the text admits alternative interpretations. Here’s the text:

Pycelle tells us:

Widow's blood, this one is called, for the color. A cruel potion. It shuts down a man's bladder and bowels, until he drowns in his own poisons.

Here’s Tyrion stealing a poison from Pycelle:

The maester’s medicines made an impressive display; dozens of pots sealed with wax, hundreds of stoppered vials, as many milkglass bottles, countless jars of dried herbs, each container neatly labeled in Pycelle’s precise hand. An orderly mind, Tyrion reflected, and indeed, once you puzzled out the arrangement, it was easy to see that every potion had its place. And such interesting things. He noted sweetsleep and nightshade, milk of the poppy, the tears of Lys, powdered greycap, wolfsbane and demon’s dance, basilisk venom, blindeye, widow’s blood . . .

Standing on his toes and straining upward, he managed to pull a small dusty bottle off the high shelf. When he read the label, he smiled and slipped it up his sleeve.

He could have taken widow’s blood (he scans the poisons until he finds what he’s looking for and takes it), but of course he could have taken something else and GRRM is just messing with us.

And here’s Tyrion’s description of the effect that the poison he just stole has on Cersei:

He almost felt sorry for poisoning her. It was the next morning as he broke his fast that her messenger arrived. The queen was indisposed and would not be able to leave her chambers. Not able to leave her privy, more like.

In summary, this poison does exactly what GRRM needs for his plot: unable to leave the privy, and clogs up the bowels. GRRM has set this up for two books and given us all the information we need to puzzle it out.

Weak argument

Assuming that the three poisons in the descriptions above are not all the same, Varys has used another poison with the exact effect he needs for the plot: unable to leave the privy, and clogs up the bowels. (How this should work, physiologically, I don’t know. I have myself been sufficiently drunk to spend a full night in a bathroom, without successfully voiding any bodily fluids from any cavity, but still psychologically unable to leave the toilet. I have also had enough elderly patients who spent hours and hours, waiting panicked for bowel release that never came. It’s not important — magic works, we have poisons that make dogs attack their masters, and other crazy stuff.)

So that’s the poison Varys used. It’s not been introduced in the books and may have any name you want; GRRM needs it for his plot and can just invent it. I prefer to call this poison Widow’s Plot.

[Darklich528]

Assuming he was poisoned with Widow's Blood, are you saying that Tywin would have died anyway, despite any interference from Tyrion?

Now that I can get behind. Because Varys seemed like the kind of guy that when his "plan" required something, he made it happen. I don't think he would have relied on Tyrion and a strategically placed crossbow. Too many things could have gone wrong. (Like I mentioned earlier)