MMA 2010: Why Always the Fighting?

[GSP]

I got Brock over Velasquez any day of the week. If the Carwin/Velasquez fight had ever materialized and Cain did well, I may have had more info to modify my opinion. I just don't think Cain will be able to do the things he's been doing to other hw's with Brock. Plus Lesnar sports a killer beard now, and you know you can't screw with the beard.

Just left Junkie and they had a poll on the Vitor/Silva fight wherein Silva just edged Belfort out as the favourite. I know those polls don't mean shit, but this is the first time in forever that Silva hasn't trounced his opposition in such a poll by a massive margin. Wonder what Vegas is saying? Personally, I think if Belfort shows up on form and with no mental issues, he's the best shot to date to dethrone the champ. I saw him on 'UFC Insider' on UFC's site, sitting cageside for Sonnen/Silva and it literally seemed like he knew everything Silva was going to throw before he threw it, just by watching his body movements. Then again, there is every chance that Silva is equally familiar with Vitor's movements when he fights. Whatever happens, this should be a great fuckin fight!

Koz says at least one stupid thing every tuf episode but the episode before last he said "I want to motorboat GSP's ass". I'm not sure what he meant to say there, but he clearly must not know what motorboating means (or just couldn't contain the depths of his man crush). That one cracked me up.

[Stego]

Cain is impressive and scary and can definitely knock out anyone on the planet. But Brock will probably overpower him, take him down, hold him down, and punish him.

[Horus Ex Machina]

It think this is the type of fight that might just test him in some of the areas that his rather short fight career hasn't been able to yet. First off, I see Brock as a wrestler first and foremost. Just like Sherk, Kos, Fitch, Tito, etc and so forth. And one of the first things that a wrestler learns to do well in the standup game is offensive boxing (every guy knows sort of how to throw a punch to some extent) and one of the last is defensive boxing.

He and Cain may both have that same weakness. Cain showed that weakness against Kongo but compensated for it with his takedowns. Brock sort of showed the same against Carwin. They are both strong wrestlers, but Brock showed against Carwin that he can handle other wrestlers. If I'm Cain, I use defensive wrestling to keep it standing and test Brock on the feet. Cain has holes in his boxing defense too, but he's not fighting a pure striker, he's fighting a wrestler who can punch a bit. Big difference there. That's gotta be his goal. I'm leaning Cain in this one. Brock's kryptonite may be a wrestler who's got good enough takedown defense to neutralize his own wrestling but can strike better than the average wrestler in the standup.

We know Brock is strong. We know his base is wrestling. We know from his days at Minnesota that he was a very good wrestler. But we don't know how consistent his takedowns will be against a wrestler who really doesn't want to be taken down is. He didn't take Randy down, he knocked him down with a punch. He didn't take Carwin down per se before the finish, it was defensive grappling and a reversal. He's taken guys like Mir and Herring down, they are NOT wrestlers at all. We know that Brock can be hurt in the standup and punches will get through bc defensive boxing isn't something that you just pick up overnight. So at some point, sprawl and brawl tactics might work against Brock if you can outpunch him in the standup. The only question for a guy like Cain, who is an experienced wrestler in his own right but doesn't have the calibre pedigree of Brock, is if you get the knockdown can you resist the temptation of overcommitting to the ground and pound for the finish, bc it will be too easy for Brock to recover and use his defensive wrestling to sweep and get in an offensive position.

This is a fight that will depend on the tactics that Cain uses and AKA is a good camp for this. Brock, I think, is going to come out and use his best weapons in the same manner he always does. His speed, his strength, his top-position wrestling and some counter-grappling. He doesn't have to worry about the sub. He only has to worry about gnp which means he doesn't have to worry at all. Cain's a good wrestler, but his titles came in Ju-co division wrestling while Brock was taking on guys like Wes Hand of Iowa. But Cain is a good enough wrestler to keep it standing, and good enough to beat him on the feet. And unlike Brock, I think he will come in with a gameplan and more than likely stick to it.

If I'm right, then a loss like this might only make Brock better, bc he has DW and everyone around him telling him how great he is right now, and some of it's true but some of it isn't. He's going to be more vulnerable now when he's still trying to do the same thing and over-rely on his wrestling to compensate his other holes. A loss here will get him the fire to bring in a guy to his camp, bc Minn. Martial Arts is primarily wrestlers, very few striking coaches that I know of there. Or maybe even get Brock to go to Boston and train with Dellagrotte, or even Shawn Tompkins to fill out his defensive holes. A loss might force Brock to fill in the holes.

[Renasko]

"He didn't take Randy down, he knocked him down with a punch." So, why do you say he only can punch 'a bit'? I think Brock will beat the head out of him, to be blunt.

[Horus Ex Machina]

"He didn't take Randy down, he knocked him down with a punch." So, why do you say he only can punch 'a bit'? I think Brock will beat the head out of him, to be blunt.

Because, when I look at wrestlers striking, there are different levels of proficiency that they tend to achieve. Sean Sherk, for example, is actually a very serviceable striker. He throws crisp punches, he's disciplined defensively even if his head doesn't move much, and his footwork is very good. His problem is biological, he inherited T-Rex arms. Kos, has good head movement and footwork, but he doesn't move intelligently all the time. Couture, has a background in boxing from the Army so his head movement is serviceable and he uses alot of the inside dirty boxing tactics, but they weren't really boxing when he was knocked down. It was a bit of a mini-scramble that was somewhat on the feet but Randy was also a bit off-balance. He doesn't have the best footwork of the strikers. Taking the context of what was done and how it was done is what I do when I look at fighters and fights. It's not just one thing but the context of how it was done and why it happened.

When I say that Brock can punch a bit, what I mean is that, he has good technique when he throws a punch, doesn't really telegraph, and throws with lots of power but that's about it. He's not going to feint a punch or set up any combos. His jabs come in singles and he doesn't go two through six very much if at all. So while you do have to worry and not get hit with Brocks punches, you also don't have to worry about him mixing any variations into his punching routine, it's pretty straight forward. You know what you're going to get. If you don't let him take you out of your routine, then you can frustrate him on the feet so long as you can keep it there and avoid his straight punches.

Defensively, he moves forward and backward alot. He looks pretty stiff, doesn't move his head. As a wrestler, I would think that he might oneday try using the Cuban, half-wrestling/half-boxing stance that will allow him to change levels rather quickly. Other top wrestlers like Mo Lawal, Kos to some extent, Tyron Woodly seem to use adaptations of it from time to time. Makes you worry about their striking and wrestling simultaneously and so they can't set defensively. I'm just saying that through six fights and bc of that reletively few looks and variations of opponents, MMA fans aren't critical enough of potential weaknesses bc they're so in awe of his percieved strengths. He's had to short of a career for us to know whether or not he's unbeatable. I'm not convinced that he is at this point bc there are clear avenues of victory against him.

It's all about the gameplan. Personally I didn't think that Carwin would have been as successful against Brock as he was. Carwin's big and strong and has pretty good hands, better than Brocks, but he's only been recently handling top competition and mistakes will kill him in ways that his previous opponents might not exploit.

[Analu]

When I say that Brock can punch a bit, what I mean is that, he has good technique when he throws a punch, doesn't really telegraph, and throws with lots of power but that's about it. He's not going to feint a punch or set up any combos. His jabs come in singles and he doesn't go two through six very much if at all. So while you do have to worry and not get hit with Brocks punches, you also don't have to worry about him mixing any variations into his punching routine, it's pretty straight forward.

This used to be true, but I think he's been working on his striking and will throw in more combinations. Which might actually be to his detriment, since his striking seems to have gotten worse since the Herring/Couture fights. Frankly, I think he's overthinking it and not relaxing his shoulders and just letting his hands go, like he did when he tagged Herring. His boxing looked terrible against Shane.

That said, I got Brock in this. Not really a fan of Cain and don't think he's big or strong enough to keep Brock from taking him down. And he doesn't really have KO power, from what I've seen of him.

[GSP]

The Nog KO. Velasques has KO power, and not just because his handlers at AKA are always claiming he breaks his training partners all the time.

That being said, I suspect Brock is working like a madman to fill his stand up holes as well. I still got Brock, but don't disagree with what Horus was saying.

[Stego]

Horus, I think you're lacking a bit of understanding in the difference in strength levels. Cain is a strong guy by normal standards, I suppose. I know he's quick and has good punching power.

That said, he's not strong enough. He will get tossed about. There is a bigger advantage for Brock over Cain than there is for GSP over BJ, if BJ fought at his normal fighting weight. 22lbs of muscle, at least.

That's more than the difference between 185 and 205. It's ridiculous. Cain has a punchers chance of knocking him out, but that is absolutely it. Folks need to understand that these weights are not all fat like they were back in the day. Brock is genuinely beastly. He does 100 dead hang pullups at 270lbs. As a 260lb man who works out in the gym every day, I can't possibly express to you how many pullups that would be for a 190lb man. A thousand? A trillion? I have no fucking idea. He's deadly strong.

[Horus Ex Machina]

Horus, I think you're lacking a bit of understanding in the difference in strength levels. Cain is a strong guy by normal standards, I suppose. I know he's quick and has good punching power.

That said, he's not strong enough. He will get tossed about. There is a bigger advantage for Brock over Cain than there is for GSP over BJ, if BJ fought at his normal fighting weight. 22lbs of muscle, at least.

That's more than the difference between 185 and 205. It's ridiculous. Cain has a punchers chance of knocking him out, but that is absolutely it. Folks need to understand that these weights are not all fat like they were back in the day. Brock is genuinely beastly. He does 100 dead hang pullups at 270lbs. As a 260lb man who works out in the gym every day, I can't possibly express to you how many pullups that would be for a 190lb man. A thousand? A trillion? I have no fucking idea. He's deadly strong.

Really?

And how much did that strength help Marius Pudzianowski, who's much stronger physically than even Brock, against Tim Sylvia? Strength alone does not win fights or wrestling matches and if you'd done an extensive amount of either or watched either you would know that. Brock, for all his strength, would not even be here if it wasn't for his close to 20 years of competitive amateur wrestling chops combined with that strength plus agility and conditioning for a man his size. Things that he got from wrestling. His strength is a factor, which must be taken into account, but there's a reason that the sport has yet to be taken over by strongmen and bodybuilders. They won't win.

Bobby Lashley is strong too, but the difference between him and Brock is that Brock wrestled D1 and Lashley was an NAIA wrestler, different levels. Brock will not throw around Cain for the same reason that he wasn't able to simply throw around an even smaller Randy Couture. It's because at some point technique becomes a factor. I've grappled with much stronger, much bigger guys who had no idea what they were doing and they felt weak to me. Remember when "Public Enemy #1" Matt Hughes made the outrageous statement that he could wrestle a 230lb man and make them feel weak. As much as I despise the man, the principle behind that statement is sound. Brock will himself admit that back when they were both in the WWE, Olympic gold-medallist and about 230lb Kurt Angle pinned Brock when they were wrestling backstage. How?? Bc despite being an NCAA champ there is a huge skill gulf between NCAA champ and even being on the US men's Olympic team. Brock has size and skill, but is it enough to make him the overwhelming favorite you seem to think it will?

If you're simply going to look at the most abstract variables and prognosticate the fight and the fight game in general, then you're not really understanding what wins fights. There are reasons why certain aspects of Brock's fights went certain ways. This is going to be a stiffer test of the spaces in between those aspects than many of you realize. I can't wait for the card. It should be interesting.

This is why I thought it was silly that Frank Mir thought that packing on some muscle would help neutralize Brock's wrestling. Instead of spending all that time in the weight room, he'd have been better served going to Iowa and hitting the mats with the Iowa wrestling team and learning how to stop takedowns, which he's never been great at.

Ppl are still in the mindset and accustomed to thinking of Brock as just really really really strong guy who was in the WWE. I think of him as a really really strong Minnesota State Gopher who was a two-time DI champ. That's why big strong Dave Batista will get smashed in MMA in quick order. He's no Lashley, he's no Lesnar. He has no combat sports experience. If Brock beats Cain, there will be a real reason, and it won't be bc he's really really really really really strong.

BTW, Penn did not lose to GSP simply bc GSP was bigger. GSP was bigger in the first fight and it was much closer. BJ lost more emphatically than the first time. bc GSP's approach to MMA moved closer to a wrestling base than a standup base for that fight.

Thiago Alves probably had 10 lbs on both Fitch and GSP after rehydrating and that didn't help him worth a damn bc he can't stop a takedown or fight a top-position wrestler from his back.

[Stego]

I realize Pudz lost his second fight because he gassed. I watched it. If he had known what to do, he would have killed Silvia. He was treating him like a child until he could not lift his arms anymore.

I also realize Brock Lesnar is a good wrestler. I also know that Cain Velasquez is a good wrestler.

A good wrestler versus a good wrestler who is vastly stronger than him is an easy fight to call.

You are making a very common mistake and trying to use little guy fact for big men. It does not translate. It is a different game, and it is developing in front of our eyes these days.

If Brock did not have cardio, his strength would not matter. If Brock did not have wrestling technique, his strength would not matter. Granted. But he does. And as such, it's check fucking mate to a guy who by any rational argument should be in a different weight class. Cain has a punchers chance and that is it. If the fight goes to the ground, it's over.

The Matt Hughes shit is nonsense.

[Horus Ex Machina]

I just want to take a moment away from this discussion and simply rejoice in the fact that former UFC fighter and current Bellator title contender, Roger Huerta recently did a good deed down in Austin.

You can't even be a B-level celeb and do anything without TMZ getting a hold of it in this day and age where everyone's cell phone doubles as a camcorder. I'm surprised if that's the only footage they got, and hopeful since the guy who got the footage that TMZ actually got was a moron who kept panning away from the action.

The guy who Roger knocked out had just finished knocking out a girl. This guy was apparently a former UT linebacker who had had looks from NFL scouts so he's probably had a pretty frustrating couple of months and decided that some chick was the reason why noone wanted a drunk asshole in the pros. Good one Roger. And lol at the drunks who were like, "that dude, I think he's a UFC fighter." "Really?"

[Ken Stone]

I don't really see how Lesnar can lose the Cain fight. It seems like a lot of people out there think

Cain = Carwin + Cardio. Cain is smaller than Lesnar, doesn't wrestle as well, and doesn't have the punching power of Carwin. The only way I can see Cain making this a fight is by turning it into a grueling 5 round affair. Even then if Lesnar can grab the first 3 rounds it might not matter.

[Stego]

Cain is a very good wrestler (Div 1 at ASU) and has punching power, Ken. If he catches anyone, it's lights out.

[GSP]

I threw up that same link a long time ago Horus under the statement "Roger Huerta beats a woman beater" or some such. That was a good, good thing. MoFo he knocked out was a big bastard as well.

If Cain did = Carwin + cardio, I'd have him to dethrone the champ for sure. But he's not. He's a bad dude and a legit contender but I have the suspicion he's going to be overpowered by the vanilla gorrilla.

[Ser Barry]

I met BJ's mum today. Lovely lady.

WAR HATHAWAY!!!!!!1!!!111!!!!

[Renasko]

Here we go, UFC 120!

Looking forward to the main fight. Not as familiar with some of the other fighters on the card.

[Commodore]

Lesnar walkout for his fight against Cain?

[Renasko]

Huh, surprised the fans like David Haye more than seeing Robert Downing Jr, Jude Law and Guy Ritchie together...

I guess Sky really has succeeded in winning fans over. Personally, I'm not particularly moved by Haye as a fighter.

ETA: I'd love to see him step into the Octagon. :D

[Ser Barry]

:(

[Horus Ex Machina]

Huh, surprised the fans like David Haye more than seeing Robert Downing Jr, Jude Law and Guy Ritchie together...

I guess Sky really has succeeded in winning fans over. Personally, I'm not particularly moved by Haye as a fighter.

ETA: I'd love to see him step into the Octagon. :D

He's a more dynamic HW than boxing has seen in recent years. Hence the excitement. Now if only he could fight one of the Klitchzzzch?-ko brothers...