American Politics mark something something

[lokisnow]

Blanche Lincoln had to cast a provisional ballot because she had an absentee ballot sent to her home address in Virginia.

if it goes to runoff you can bet she's going to get hammered and hammered hard about that.

and the house is a 2million dollar one as well, which to Arkansans, even those in Bentonville, is a mansion.

[Shryke]

Arizona law totally not racist and will totally not lead to problems:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/29/AR2010042904970.html?hpid=topnews

Police consider Tucson, a city of 550,000, a way station for drugs and people headed north. Immigration politics have always been complicated here, pitting those who say undocumented migrants bring crime and tax burdens against those who say welcoming them is a matter of social justice.

The day after the Arizona legislature approved the bill, the police headquarters was flooded with phone calls. A typical complaint, according to Villaseñor, was this: "Hey, there are some Mexicans standing on the corner? You need to check them out."

The police chief considered the requests "ridiculous" because "a lot of people stand on street corners." Villaseñor, a Tucson native who joined the police force in 1980 and became chief last year, said he understands the frustrations but objects to the law on several levels.

"Too many vagaries," he said. He said that he doubts there is a law officer "anywhere in the state of Arizona" who can accurately describe how to enforce the measure and that he fears it will lead to racial profiling, despite the law's prohibition of the practice.

[Nymeria Sand]

Yeah. Pennsylvania and Arkansas are big deals as well. There is also a special election in Penn-12 (Murtha's old seat) worth watching.

Yeah, both candidates are trying to out-pro gun and out-pro life each other. The one guy's entire campaign consists of "I'm pro life and pro gun." And that's it. The other guy was on Murtha's staff for years.

Neither one will be able to bring home the kind of money Murtha did, though.

Rand Paul won the GOP nomination in Kentucky.

[Mad Monkey]

He said that he doubts there is a law officer "anywhere in the state of Arizona" who can accurately describe how to enforce the measure and that he fears it will lead to racial profiling, despite the law's prohibition of the practice.

That was my problem with the law, actually. I don't understand how ordinary cops are supposed to be able to enforce it without using racial profiling. Not because the cops are racist, but because I honestly don't believe that it's possible to look at someone in every case and be able to hazard a guess as to their citizenship status. It's not like naturalized or native-born Americans have a different walking style to non-citizens or something.

[TrackerNeil]

That was my problem with the law, actually. I don't understand how ordinary cops are supposed to be able to enforce it without using racial profiling. Not because the cops are racist, but because I honestly don't believe that it's possible to look at someone in every case and be able to hazard a guess as to their citizenship status. It's not like naturalized or native-born Americans have a different walking style to non-citizens or something.

Well, the police are supposed to have reasonable cause to suspect one is an illegal, which means they'll stop anyone they damn well please. I have a strange feeling, however, that they won't stop blond-haired, blue-eyed people who speak with a Swedish accent.

[Nymeria Sand]

Well, the police are supposed to have reasonable cause to suspect one is an illegal, which means they'll stop anyone they damn well please. I have a strange feeling, however, that they won't stop blond-haired, blue-eyed people who speak with a Swedish accent.

And if they don't have a cause, they'll make one up.

They need to clearly define "reasonable cause" or "reasonable suspicion." Otherwise this is just ripe for abuse.

[Mad Monkey]

I think it's short-sighted for the left to challenge Blanche Lincoln. Do you really want to have a more liberal candidate try to win the seat in Red Arkansas? It makes no sense to me. Let the GOP have these purity tests.

I've always felt the farther you go to the extreme left, politically, the crazier you get. Something that might seem short-sighted to those of us who view politics as a tool rather than as a convenient excuse to bully everyone in the world.

Well, the police are supposed to have reasonable cause to suspect one is an illegal, which means they'll stop anyone they damn well please.

I'm sure there's case law or some sort of standard that they can apply to make sure they don't stop everyone. "Reasonable cause" does have a legal meaning, I think, but I'm not sure what it actually means in the context of this law. What is reasonable cause of being an illegal immigrant? Unlike, say, carrying a weapon or drugs, it's not something that you can really see. Unlike being drunk or under the influence, it's not something that you can detect based on mannerisms, behaviors, or simple tests. The only way I can think of to know if someone is undocumented or not, without relying on stereotypes or racial profiling, is to ask them to produce proof of citizenship.

Does anyone here (lawyers, law enforcement, or anyone else, really) have any idea how the police officers are supposed to execute this law without violating it?

[Shryke]

I think it's short-sighted for the left to challenge Blanche Lincoln. Do you really want to have a more liberal candidate try to win the seat in Red Arkansas? It makes no sense to me. Let the GOP have these purity tests.

Tea party candidates are fascinating because while they have these amazing swells of support on the right, they are probably more vulnerable to actually lose to the Dem then the more moderate GOP candidate that they knocked out.

Probably not the case in Utah, but in other places it is going to be interesting.

Challenging candidates is how you push them to the Left though. At the very least, it makes them aware that they do expect some sort of left-wingedness from them, even if they are from a generally Right wing area.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

So Joe Sestak and Rand Paul both won their respective primaries, and I expect Mark Critz's victory to prompt endless (and useless debate) about whether PA-12 is a better bellwether for November than MA-SEN. I'm sure this all goes to show something, but I don't know what.

I think it's short-sighted for the left to challenge Blanche Lincoln. Do you really want to have a more liberal candidate try to win the seat in Red Arkansas? It makes no sense to me. Let the GOP have these purity tests.

It makes perfect sense. Blanche Lincoln went from a squish on financial regulation to embracing a derivatives plan that's more Catholic than the pope, so to speak, which helped push the FinReg debate in a progressive direction at a crucial moment. And there's no reason to think that she would have done that without the challenge from Halter. Since she's probably going to lose in any case, I think the challenge is worth it.

Besides, Bill Halter already won a statewide election in Arkansas in 2006, so he's hardly so liberal as to alienate the electorate there.

[alguien]

Arizona law totally not racist and will totally not lead to problems:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/29/AR2010042904970.html?hpid=topnews

Wow, who could have seen that coming?

[besides anyone with a full-functioning brain and an actual grasp on reality?]

[TrackerNeil]

So Joe Sestak and Rand Paul both won their respective primaries, and I expect Mark Critz's victory to prompt endless (and useless debate) about whether PA-12 is a better bellwether for November than MA-SEN. I'm sure this all goes to show something, but I don't know what.

Having just voted for Sestak a mere twelve hours ago, I am gratified by this news. Personally, I was dreading Toomey running against Specter on the he's-just-trying-to-keep-his-job thing, which he can't pull against Sestak.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

Some more thoughts about the Pennsylvania races:

1) Mark Critz is obviously a conservative Democrat, and I imagine that somebody will be in this thread by tomorrow morning to point that out. But to me the important fact is that a district which Obama lost in 2008 and which he has a 33% approval rating currently is returning a Congressman who will vote for Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House. If the Democrats can hold to the House by bringing in more conservative Democrats, that's ultimately better for progressives than if Republicans take over.

2) Considering that Ed Rendell hasn't been interested in higher office for years, Joe Sestak is probably the best candidate that PA Democrats could hope for to win in 2010: he's a sitting Congressman with proven popularity in the Philly suburbs, where statewide races are largely won or lost. Perceptions of Arlen Specter were getting positively toxic (even I marveled at the alacrity with which Specter adopted most of Obama's platform, and I generally approved of the positions he was adopting), so Sestak is undoubtedly an improvement.

3) Specter has been getting a reputation as a political coward and double-dealer, and in general it's well-deserved; but it's worth pointing out that when I was talking about this race with a queer, socialist, feminist, AIDS-activist friend of mine, she said that Specter took the AIDS activist community seriously when very few other people were, and was a leader on measures to combat global AIDS at a time when it didn't necessarily do him any favors. So credit where due.

I get that there is some reasoning behind it, and I admit that I don't know much about Halter, so maybe I shouldn't be commenting on it. But in general, moves like this have the potential to turn into a "be careful what you wish for" scenario.

I agree with that. I'm not always in favor of primaries against sitting Democrats (I thought at the time and think now that the challenge in Lieberman in 2006 was pointless, for ex.), but the strategic rationale behind Halter's primary challenge is solid enough.

[TrackerNeil]

2) Considering that Ed Rendell hasn't been interested in higher office for years, Joe Sestak is probably the best candidate that PA Democrats could hope for to win in 2010: he's a sitting Congressman with proven popularity in the Philly suburbs, where statewide races are largely won or lost. Perceptions of Arlen Specter were getting positively toxic (even I marveled at the alacrity with which Specter adopted most of Obama's platform, and I generally approved of the positions he was adopting), so Sestak is undoubtedly an improvement.

Joe Sestak is also a good deal younger than Specter, isn't suffering from a disease, and is more likely to live out a six-year term. That factored heavily in my thinking, particularly since it seems likely that Pennsylvania's next governor will be a Republican. I didn't want Tom Corbett anywhere near the opportunity to appoint a replacement in the event of Specter's death.

Can I just say that no matter how many times I hear "Sestak", I keep thinking "Sleestak"? For the uninitiated, that's one of the humanoid reptilian creatures from "Land of the Lost."

[TrackerNeil]

I can't wait for the Florida race. I think it's going to be fascinating. Now that Christ is an Indy, it's a true three way. Normally I wouldn't think that this relatively unknown Dem would have much of a chance, but I don't think it's out of the question now, of course depending on how the fight between Christ and Rubio goes.

Christ needs to win a lot of moderate Democrats in order to win the race. He's going to win a lot of moderate Republicans and Independents, but how many Democrats will he actually get? If Christ gets more moderate Republicans than he does Democrats, it could help the Democratic candidate tremendously. The problem for this guy (I'm blanking on his name, it's one syllable I remember) is that it's not a great year to be a Dem and Rubio will have enthusiastic support. But Christ as an Indy really makes things interesting.

Actually, I think it is "Crist", although I think it's funny to imagine Marco Rubio running against the Christian deity.

Personally, the Democrats have already gained a certain victory no matter what happens. If Crist and Rubio split the vote, the Democrat wins. If not, Crist has forced the GOP to spend more money than usual in defending a Republican seat. I like it!

[Foreverlad]

Actually, I think it is "Crist", although I think it's funny to imagine Marco Rubio running against the Christian deity.

Personally, the Democrats have already gained a certain victory no matter what happens. If Crist and Rubio split the vote, the Democrat wins. If not, Crist has forced the GOP to spend more money than usual in defending a Republican seat. I like it!

Yeah, the Florida primaries look interesting. One of the big deciding factors for Crist's potential lies in what the majority of voting republicans think of Jeb Bush. Jeb's become something of a political compass in Florida. While working to help the Republicans re-find (or perhaps refine) the Republican party in various ways, he was also the primary mover on the recently vetoed Education Bill (which pretty much nullified Crist's Republican credentials).

Republicans with a healthy respect for the Bush family or a clear dislike for Those Who Would Hug President Obama are going to do everything in their power to destroy Crist.

Whether it's the primary or the election, so long as Rubio loses, I'll be content.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

You make a good point. If the GOP is indeed orchestrating some kind of purity test, Crist is out. If he wins, I don't expect him to become the left wing of the Democratic party, but I do expect him to become more reliably Dem than GOP. I think he's always been a very middle-of-the-road moderate who is in disbelief at what is going on with the right. He's probably be a Lieberman at worst should he win. Possibly a little more to the right, if only because he's from Florida and not Connecticut.

I wouldn't go as far as that; but if he wins as an independent, it will be interesting to see who he caucuses with, and whether he's a gettable vote for Obama. I assume that he'd have a tough time winning the Republican primary in 2016 unless something dramatic happens--this is the kind of betrayal that's not easily forgotten--so it wouldn't necessarily be in his electoral interests to be a reliable Republican vote as senator, because Republican partisans won't trust him any way.

[Nymeria Sand]

Having just voted for Sestak a mere twelve hours ago, I am gratified by this news. Personally, I was dreading Toomey running against Specter on the he's-just-trying-to-keep-his-job thing, which he can't pull against Sestak.

Absolutely agree, TN, and I voted for Sestak for the same reason. I like Arlen Specter, but it's time to change. Not to mention that Specter is 80 years old. Not to be mean, but there's no guarantee he'll live through another term.

On the other hand, it's going to be strange without Specter. I mean, the guy's been our senator since before I was born.

We can't afford to elect Toomey in November. He makes Rick Santorum look like a moderate.

[Nymeria Sand]

Joe Sestak is also a good deal younger than Specter, isn't suffering from a disease, and is more likely to live out a six-year term. That factored heavily in my thinking, particularly since it seems likely that Pennsylvania's next governor will be a Republican. I didn't want Tom Corbett anywhere near the opportunity to appoint a replacement in the event of Specter's death.

Can I just say that no matter how many times I hear "Sestak", I keep thinking "Sleestak"? For the uninitiated, that's one of the humanoid reptilian creatures from "Land of the Lost."

I'm going to go traitor and take a walk on the Dark Side. The Democratic gubernatorial winner signs my paycheck and there's no way I'm voting for him. I voted for Wagner. In November, I'm voting for Corbett. I think he was a good Attorney General...but I'm not sure what kind of governor he'd make. Still, I'm willing to take my chances.

Hsssssssssss.......my sister used to be scared to death of the Sleestaks when we were kids. :)

[TrackerNeil]

Hsssssssssss.......my sister used to be scared to death of the Sleestaks when we were kids. :)

I imagine that if there is a debate, the moderator will sternly warn the Democrat not to shoot Pat Toomey with that little crossbow all sleestaks carry.

[DanteGabriel]

I'm pleased Senator Weathervane lost his primary to Sestak, even if his defection to the Democrats was politically useful. Having Arlen Specter in your caucus is like having Vince Carter on your basketball team. He'll wilt and start crying when the pressure turns up.