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lokisnow

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  1. I agree that winnowing will happen, I would be surprised if there are more than 12 realistic candidates, going into Iowa. Given the schedule I’d think the winnowing will happen after each of the first three states, clearing a fair amount of the field of the also rans. And then we will see only one or two drop outs after Super Tuesday and Midwest Tuesday respectively. It’s possible because of early voting a lot of people stay in until after Midwest Tuesday and then there’s a huge wave of drop outs, because they’ll have already banked votes. harris will definitely be around for Super Tuesday because her strategy will be to win NV and ride that momentum to a massive delegate lead from a CA win. Given CA is so early there is zero chance she drops out even with a fourth or fifth place finish in Iowa and NH. On the other hand, Booker will absolutely be in more danger of being winnowed because he’s got almost no geographic path to the nomination given the current schedule. He will be focusing on SC and TN and AL, and hoping not to split them with Harris, but he’s a still a yankee banker (so to speak), so we will see how well that plays in those states, I don’t think he’s going to be a slam dunk cultural match there. Booker probably is going to also still be around by Super Tuesday, (unless his internals in SC are abysmal after the first three forcing a pre SC dropout), simply because Super Tuesday is only three days after the SC primary. in terms of staffing I think the advantage there is to those that invoke a lot passion, Beto, Harris, sanders, they’ll all have robust campaigns in all of the states competing, none of them will be hobbled by running only an Iowa or only a NH campaign.
  2. lokisnow

    Bakker LVI: the Rectum of Creation

    Holding golgotterath himself would explain why he cut off the other horn when he got the laser, not the horn with all the boss fights in it.
  3. I think I am under stating Harris support, she could easily win Alabama for instance, and Biden might do well in NC because of its similarity to Virginia. But I think Biden is toast because his strengths are going to be geographically not where the elections are. but tennessee is culturally and demographically very like Texas, and Beto will crush it there, likewise he will sweep the states adjacent to Texas. So that likely means that while Harris May come out with more delegates because of California, Beto will win more states and the latter means that he will win the most important battle which is winning the media “momentum” narrative. Winning that battle gives him an immense advantage going into the Midwest battles, and will culturally advantage Beto because midwestern voters will break towards him because they loath the idea of California dictating anything to them. Biden only botching one win and a bunch of various lower tier placements wil put him into a media narrative momentum battle he will not be able to overcome nor disprove, in spite of any actual delegate counts. But a strong showing on midwestern Tuesday could maybe keep him in the race But if Beto takes wins on Midwest Tuesday along with a prior perceived media victory on Super Tuesday (by taking the south), it’s pretty much game over since New England doesn’t start voting for an electoral eternity after March 17: the narrative and momentum will be relentlessly in his favor. If beto doesn’t run, the entire race is a free for all with clear advantages for Harris and Biden, but if the favored son of Texas runs, geography and culture means he has an incredibly influential schedule that gives him the clearest path to securing the nomination and defeating the hordes of other candidates.
  4. I agree I think name recognition means the field is already five-six candidates and the road to the nomination runs through the south and Super Tuesday. If we had another week in the calendar, I’d suspect we will have fifteen+ candidates going into the Iowa caucuses but seven or fewer after South Carolina. Instead Nevada will have to act as a bellweather and may cause some candidates to bail before the Super Tuesday slaughter. but with South Carolina voting on leap day Saturday, and Super Tuesday three days later, I don’t think South Carolina will winnow the field. basically the strategy is: make a splash in Iowa or new hamphshire, try for a surge in Nevada you can ride to Super Tuesday, shrug at South Carolina, and go balls out on your own Super Tuesday strategy. i expect Beto to win Iowa, sanders or Biden to take new hamphshire, Harris to win Nevada and South Carolina to not matter, but it is probably leaning Beto Harris or booker harris may well win California, and the above winners have to waste enormous resources to try to not to let her pile up a big lead there, Beto will take Texas and same as above, others are trying to deny him building a big lead in his home state. But then the math and geography favors Beto over Harris, unless Biden can stop him, as he will probably sweep Alabama, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and North Carolina and probably lose to Biden in Virginia. Sanders wins Vermont of course and warren maybe wins Massachusetts, but seems like the candidate least likely to win their home state. in other words, Beto is likely coming out of Super Tuesday owning the entire narrative of the nomination race. Picking up a win five days later in Louisiana will only add to that. the Midwest version of Super Tuesday is a week later, and this is where Biden and brown could mount a campaign, but if the media is all Beto all the time leading into March 10 it may already be too late for them to notch meaningful victories. that probably brings it to a Harris vs Beto be Biden March 17 showdown over Florida, arizona and illinois. Since there’s basically a month off after this, it’s the day that probably knocks everyone else out of the race. its a south and west heavy map, which is bad news for the four northeast front runner candidates (and for brown), given they are running against home state kids from the biggest and earliest states.
  5. Probably not, likely the judge will write a sentencing recommendation that he be immediately paroled because “jail could ruin his young life”.
  6. O’Rourke notched his first victory over sanders, beating him in move ons meaningless straw poll. He also beat Biden (who came in second) meaning Beto “won” the poll, technically losing only to “undecided” but since move on went 78% for sanders in 2016 the fact that o rourke beat sanders by 3 points is interesting. harris and warren were fourth and fifth, notching half and a third of the leaders numbers. booker and brown etc were all also rans in the 1-3% range.
  7. See in America, the non Conservative party is so totally lacking in spine that if pushed to the last minute like about eighty percent of them would abandon all principles or political calculation and capitulate to the demands of their opposition and vote with them. So in America it wouldn’t even be a risk for republicans in a crisis management scenario, they’d know they’d get more than enough democrats to vote against their own interests that they wouldn’t even worry about a rebellion in the right flank. And the republicans would also know they wouldn’t even have to give the democrats anything to get the votes they need to forestall crisis, democrats would just give them the votes for free (maybe a little verbal bullying to motivate the democrats to hand over the votes , but not much). I mean even when democrats had their biggest majorities in sixty years (60%!), party leadership went hat in hand to conservatives and said “if we start with your position and negotiate to an even more conservative position is that okay with you that we do that, you still don’t have to vote for it but would you say nice things about us?” are the non conservatives in England possessing of more spine and or political calculation?
  8. Article on anger research as it relates to politics and has been weaponized by commerce and fissionized by social media. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/01/charles-duhigg-american-anger/576424/
  9. There’s another quote (not from the movie but just in general), paraphrasing: the British aristocracy do nothing, but they do it well. if May does nothing, no resignation, no new deal, no new referendum, but the clock continues to run out she will win because she will get enough votes at the eleventh hour to stop the crisis of a no deal. at the end of this—in the last hour of the last day—voting for the deal will mean forestalling the no deal crisis and virtually all of the politicians howling today will eagerly vote affirmatively for her deal in order to be part of the saviors league who gallantly set aside self interest en masse and put country before career to vote for mays deal and save the world . *smirk* even I find that absurd, but that is the potential upside of stubbornly doing nothing: achieving a nick of time solution impossible to achieve today. It’s almost terry Pratchett esque
  10. Insert any number of Lawrence of Arabia quotes here: Colonel Brighton: Look, sir, we can't just do nothing. General Allenby: Why not? It's usually best. they only cocked up the entire Middle East and thus the entire world for a century with that approach, so eh, I’m sure the same strategy as employed by May and that ninny Corbyn will work out equally well. May has to do the hardest thing in 24/7 news cycle: do nothing and wait it out, the longer she waits the more leverage she gains, if she can endure a few pre holiday news cycles that is.
  11. Nothing so complex. It is working for McConnell, so he has correctly inferred taking the same stance and actions will work for him. they are just lying. It is that simple. And they don’t care because they know voters don’t care. And if democrats expose their lies and agitate about it the only consequence is that it makes republicans even more likely and more enthusiastic to vote republican. But ultimately McConnell and McCarthy both know these are wonky process arguments and explaining a hypocrisies story about wonky details of governance is virtually impossible for the media to publish or air and even more impossible for the public to bother with.
  12. Don’t forget the judges the republicans groom are invited from undergrad days to fancy soirées and given access and privilege to both ensure they are addicted to the access and privileges and also to allow them to suss out who is committed to the cause and who is a suspected backstabbing Souter or Stevens. oh no not another “conference” in Dana point or Hawaii! Oh no not another “hunting retreat” in Wyoming or Texas. Please don’t make us go on more of these all expenses paid events. Please don’t. It’s too much, I might even have a heart attack and die on my hooker like Scalia did at one of these elite retreats. After the betrayals of Stevens and Souter et al, republicans have approached grooming future judges like pedophiles groom victims. And they’re very very good at it.
  13. If I were to guess I’d say that most of the elderly candidates will be winnowed by the invisible primary, I don’t think warren will run and I’d be surprised if sanders does too. I think a ton of the establishment dems are already coalescing around Sherrod Brown and are trying to clear the field for him. I don’t think booker or Harris will be pushed out but I imagine one will Bomb in Iowa and drop out after New Hampshire (probably Harris). With the establishment already picking brown and trying to do a Clinton 2016 coronation for him, that means Harris and Biden and booker will all be starved of establishment resources that they probably expect to be shared with them. Which sort of guarantees they have an under performance. I’d expect Biden to strike out, booker to have some of his billionaire buddies bankrolling him and Harris to have grassroots gender support, so the latter two probably will have stronger financial resources. That of course opens the door for the insurgent non establishment candidate to vacuum up votes. If sanders runs he has some advantage here but also he is not the shiny novel part of this campaign narrative as there will be a lot drama to draw media interest away from him rather than media propping him up to try and stimulate drama. The other insurgent candidate is likely to be Beto o rourke and since he will be shiny and novel and making inspirational speeches he has a chance to control the narrative. That means it ultimately comes down to the same fight as 2016, but with Beto doing in the south what Obama did in the south. Regardless of who wins, it’s likely that your final 2020 ticket is either Brown/ Beto or Beto / Brown. Which is a shame because that means we are gifting a free senate seat to the republicans if we win the presidency (since Ohio voters are stupid and did not vote straight ticket in 2018.) although there is a decent chance that Beto plucks Harris or another female senator (Klobuchar?) to be his veep because of the Ohio senate issue if he wins the nomination.
  14. Regarding trump and his guilt. One he never admits guilt, he always fights back and escalates. Escalation from trump is the rule. He also never loses he always uses his escalations to gain leverage And manipulate the settlement process to maximize his own advantage. So the ultimate outcome is almost guaranteed that trump will get away with it and declare victory because he’ll use the legal process to get a settlement and declare victory even if it is an extremely unfavorable settlement the details of the settlement matter exactly zero, the only thing that matters is the headline and since no one involved other than trump understands this simple fact, trump will win the headline and that means he ultimately wins. two, he doesn’t care a bit about his family, he is ruthless And will pragmatically throw all of them under the bus if he believes it will advantage him. Three Gerald ford has provided us with a highly ethical and extremely historically praised precedent that allows trump to get away with all of it, immediately possess a rehabilitated public image, and his successor getting nothing but decades of fellating ecstatic praise for taking this action. Namely if things get really bad. Trump wins his headline, takes the settlement, pardons all his family and compatriots, resigns the presidency and is immediately pardoned fully by his successor (invalidating the bad settlement, but “proving trump is innocent in the eyes of the public”). basically there is almost no way that trump can lose no matter how bad it gets because the media will universally be eager to be complicit in aiding all of this along. Can’t wait for the daily NYT pieces praising 46 for pardoning trump and helping the nation grieve as a true and strong good leader must do.
  15. Roberts is hedging to prevent court packing and he’s using the sexual harassment cases against kavanaugh that he’s kept hushed up as leverage to keep kavanaugh under his thumb. Stare decisis has zero to do with it. It’s naked political manipulations as per usual in the judicial system
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