The Rhaegar + Lyanna = Jon Thread, Part X

[The Scabbard Of the Morning]

Well, my evidence include all the evidence already presented in R+L=J that suggests that Lyanna was the mother of Jon, and that Jon is a Targ.

The only part I differ with the R+L theory is that I believe Aerys is responsible, and my evidence is

1) Aerys' madness is his paranoia and jealousy, he wasn't generally mad, this is well documented.

2) Aerys' move against the Starks and Baratheons seem very purposeful and direct and not a bout of madness.

3) Rhaegar and Lyanna's personality seem to contradict a haphazard elopement.

4) Too many different sources agree on Lyanna being raped to be dismissed as mere rumor

5) Aerys' lack of concern for the lives of Rhaegar's wife and children.

6) Rhaegar's indication to Jaime that he had plans laid out to depose Aerys.

I admit it's all conjecture, I was just trying to come up with an alternative to R+L, and I think as alternatives go, this one could be true and not contradict any of the clues we have been given so far.

[Dragonfish]

I'm not saying it's the only explanation, but that between the two it actually fits more pieces of the puzzle.

Anyway, in order to answer some of your questions, I have to lay out the entirely of my theory.

Here's how it all went down according to my theory.

But your claim that A+L=J fits more pieces of the puzzle was partly based on the idea that it explains the existence of the rape stories while R+L=J does not. But I've said repeatedly that there is a perfectly adequate explanation for the rape stories under R+L=J, so it is not at all true that A+L=J explains that piece of the puzzle better.

In order to strengthen your theory, you have to address counter-explanations and explain why they're inadequate. But you haven't done that. Instead, you've continued to rely on your existing theory even after I've demonstrated that it has no real evidence to support it.

As for your new theory, it's an interesting one, but it's also needlessly complicated. R+L=J explains these events more easily and without the baseless conjecture. That's why I think it's the better theory.

I'll try to get a little more specific below.

Aerys' increasing paranoia leads to him being threatened by Rhaegar, just as he was threatened by Tywin earlier. He even starts to suspect that Rhaegar is plotting to depose him, and decides to act against Rhaegar first and make the younger Viserys his heir.

After the events at Harrenhal he decides to frame Rhaegar for the abduction and rape of Lyanna. So he could publicly remove him as heir. Lyanna was abducted and raped with physical evidence leading to Rhaegar left at the scene to implicate him (a banner? a sword? strand of silver hair?).

The plan was to kill her afterwards, Rhaegar somehow gets wind of this plot arrives in time to rescues her before she is killed.

So Aerys is increasingly paranoid but is somehow capable of planning an intricate plot to frame his son? Yet somehow during all this planning he doesn't predict that the Starks and Baratheons might take umbrage with him over the whole affair.

Also, if the plan was to poison people against Rhaegar, why didn't he simply have Lyanna killed instead of brought to him and raped? This is why your theory is inadequate, it's drawn from baseless conjecture and only raises more questions that can only be resolved with further baseless conjecture.

Aerys botched things up faster than Rhaegar anticipated, by the time Rhaegar gets wind of everything and returns to KL from Dorne, the rebellion has progressed past the point of no return, so he decides to deal with that first before he deals with Aerys. Aerys only turns to Rhaegar out of desperation, he insists on hold on to Elia and her children not just to keep Dorne loyal, but as a means to ensure Rhaegar doesn't turn on him.

So then why does Aerys keep Elia in King's Landing after Rhaegar had died? In my opinion, at this point in the war he still clinged to the notion that he'd win, and thus believed that keeping Elia there was a good insurance of continued Dornish loyalty. It wasn't until the Lannisters began sacking the city that he realized all was lost, but by that point he was more concerned with burning the whole city down than evacuating his remaining family.

To me it was always a puzzle why before the city fell he gets Rhaella and Viserys out of KL he doesn't let Elia and her children go with them. He seemed to have little interest in the survival of Elia and his own grandchildren, even as he takes effort to ensure the survival of his wife and son. To me the best explanation is that he has some hostility toward Rhaegar and that explains why he is not interested in saving Rhaegar's children.

I don't think there's any puzzle here, Aerys wanted to continue to insure Dornish loyalty at this point. No further conjecture is really needed to explain it.

That said, it may very well be true that Aerys was hostile to Rhaegar. And certainly he had no real love for Elia, otherwise he wouldn't have treated her as a hostage. But even if all these things were true, that's flimsy evidence that the war began because Aerys hatched a complicated scheme to frame Rhaegar, especially since all these things are easily and more simply explained by R+L=J.

[Errant Bard]

and how is your theory supported by facts?

at least we have some fact supporting R+L.

Do you? Seems to me that beyond Rhaegar and Lyanna's meeting, there are no facts around. (or if you go that way, I suppose there are facts for A+N=J)

And after all, even if they're no facts, most of what can be twisted to fit the theory only fits ?+L=J. (Blue rose: Stark/North: Lyanna. Stark features: Lyanna. Bed of blood: Lyanna, etc) Actually, what designates Rhaegar as the father?

[The Scabbard Of the Morning]

So Aerys is increasingly paranoid but is somehow capable of planning an intricate plot to frame his son? Yet somehow during all this planning he doesn't predict that the Starks and Baratheons might take umbrage with him over the whole affair.

Paranoid people can still plot, and the whole idea was to frame Rhaegar and if he removes him as heir that would satisfy the Starks and Baratheons as justice.

Also, if the plan was to poison people against Rhaegar, why didn't he simply have Lyanna killed instead of brought to him and raped? This is why your theory is inadequate, it's drawn from baseless conjecture and only raises more questions that can only be resolved with further baseless conjecture.

Because that would not be believable, why would Rhaegar, who everyone sees is attracted to her, just kill her for no reason. The rape is what makes it believable that it was Rhaegar who did it, a man is attracted to a girl, a man tries to force himself on a girl, a man kills her afterwards to erase incriminating evidence, that would be believable.

So then why does Aerys keep Elia in King's Landing after Rhaegar had died? In my opinion, at this point in the war he still clinged to the notion that he'd win, and thus believed that keeping Elia there was a good insurance of continued Dornish loyalty. It wasn't until the Lannisters began sacking the city that he realized all was lost, but by that point he was more concerned with burning the whole city down than evacuating his remaining family.

But he wasn't sending them to Dorne, he was sending them to Dragonstone, with his men. Surely he could have still controlled their fate. He could have at least sent her children along. I think he really wanted them to die.

I don't think there's any puzzle here, Aerys wanted to continue to insure Dornish loyalty at this point. No further conjecture is really needed to explain it.

That said, it may very well be true that Aerys was hostile to Rhaegar. And certainly he had no real love for Elia, otherwise he wouldn't have treated her as a hostage. But even if all these things were true, that's flimsy evidence that the war began because Aerys hatched a complicated scheme to frame Rhaegar, especially since all these things are easily and more simply explained by R+L=J.

It doesn't seem like it's a complicated scheme at all, commit a crime and frame somebody for it sounds pretty simple to me, it just went very terribly wrong.

[Dragonfish]

1) Aerys' madness is his paranoia and jealousy, he wasn't generally mad, this is well documented.

Well, Jaime implied that Aerys believed he'd turn into a dragon after burning King's Landing, which I'd qualify as damn insane.

In any case, none of what we know about Aerys really portrays him as cunning enough to pull off these schemes. In most cases, Aerys responded to challenges to his authority with heavy-handed and extreme methods. When Jon Connington made a sensible retreat from the Battle of the Bells, Aerys exiled him. When his new Hand objected to his plans to burn the city, he roasted him. And after already killing Lord Stark and his heir, he then made a clumsy attempt to go after the remaining Starks and Baratheons. None of this really describes a cunning individual capable of executing the kinds of schemes you say he planned.

Also, one last thing: if the goal of kidnapping and raping Lyanna was to poison people against Rhaegar, then why did he respond to Brandon's threats against Rhaegar with an execution? Wouldn't it have served the plan better to allow Brandon to threaten and demonize his son, since that was the entire point of the plan? Executing Brandon and Rickard just poisons people against him, not Rhaegar.

2) Aerys' move against the Starks and Baratheons seem very purposeful and direct and not a bout of madness.

As you say, Aerys was paranoid, and he probably believed that any remaining Starks would want to come after him for murdering Brandon and Rickard. But I still don't see how this supports your theory.

3) Rhaegar and Lyanna's personality seem to contradict a haphazard elopement.

No, it doesn't.

We know Rhaegar was obsessed with this prophecy, which he believed required him to have another child. We know his wife, Elia, couldn't give him another one. We know that Rhaegar is the kind of guy who, when he sets his sights on a particular goal, pursues that goal resolutely and matter-of-factly. And we know that he was interested in Lyanna from the KotLT story.

As for Lyanna, we know that she wasn't particularly happy with her betrothal to Robert. We also know that she was probably infatuated with Rhaegar, again from the KotLT story. We also know that she had a "touch of the wolf's blood," meaning a bit of rashness and impulsiveness.

Based on these facts, it is not at all inconsistent that these two would run off together, especially given that one of the dominant themes in the series is that people do irrational and at times counterproductive things in the name of love.

4) Too many different sources agree on Lyanna being raped to be dismissed as mere rumor

No, no, no, no, no. I've refuted this claim over and over, yet you continue to ignore that. There is a very simple and parsimonious explanation for the rape rumors that does not rely on Aerys hatching a cunning scheme to fool the realm. You need to address my counter-explanation, and until you do so you cannot claim that Lyanna must have been raped.

5) Aerys' lack of concern for the lives of Rhaegar's wife and children.

He may not have had much concern for Rhaegar's family, but he sure seemed to be concerned for Rhaegar when he killed Brandon and his friends for threatening Rhaegar.

6) Rhaegar's indication to Jaime that he had plans laid out to depose Aerys.

I don't see how this supports your theory more so than R+L=J. The spark of the war occurred when Aerys killed Brandon and Rickard, so it stands to reason that Rhaegar would have decided to depose Aerys based on that fact, along with Aerys' track record of general insanity.

[The Scabbard Of the Morning]

You know, if you were to examine the L+R=J theory with this much scrutiny you'd realize the evidence for it is actually more flimsy than this theory.

[Dragonfish]

Paranoid people can still plot, and the whole idea was to frame Rhaegar and if he removes him as heir that would satisfy the Starks and Baratheons as justice.

Yes, but as I explained in my last post, none of the information we have about Aerys suggests that he's capable of that level of cunning. The guy tends to react to challenges to his rule in extreme and heavy-handed ways.

Because that would not be believable, why would Rhaegar, who everyone sees is attracted to her, just kill her for no reason. The rape is what makes it believable that it was Rhaegar who did it, a man is attracted to a girl, a man tries to force himself on a girl, a man kills her afterwards to erase incriminating evidence, that would be believable.

So because Rhaegar is a standup guy it's not believable that he'd kill Lyanna, but it is believable that he'd rape and kill her? This makes no sense.

But he wasn't sending them to Dorne, he was sending them to Dragonstone, with his men. Surely he could have still controlled their fate. He could have at least sent her children along. I think he really wanted them to die.

Whah? I never said anything about sending Elia and her children to Dorne, I said he kept them in King's Landing to insure continued Dornish loyalty. And he probably didn't send her to Dragonstone because he wanted to keep her as close as possible. That said, I agree he probably didn't care about her fate, otherwise he wouldn't have used her as a hostage with the implied threat of killing her. None of this, however, suggests that he hatched a plot to frame his own son.

It doesn't seem like it's a complicated scheme at all, commit a crime and frame somebody for it sounds pretty simple to me, it just went very terribly wrong.

It's complicated because it involves sending someone to abduct Lyanna, plant evidence that it was Rhaegar, then bring her back to King's Landing so that Aerys can rape and murder her. Yet somewhere in there, Rhaegar managed to rescue her after she was raped by Aerys but before she was murdered by him. How does that work? Did the King take a nap after raping her with the plan of killing her later?

Not to mention, after going to the trouble of framing his son in order to poison the kingdom against him, what does he do as soon as Brandon Stark walks into the Throne Room and threatens Rhaegar? He executes him. I mean, if Brandon thinks Rhaegar took Lyanna, that means that Aerys' plan worked, but then he completely undermines that plan and poisons the kingdom against himself by killing Brandon and Rickard. That doesn't make any sense.

[LadyMary]

Lyanna disappeared. It was assumed she was kidnapped by Rhaegar, probably because he made a romantic gesture to her.

Assuming the truth of R+L=J based on the circumstantial evidence so far, and

Assuming the promise Ned made to Lyanna was to protect her son,

Then, Lyanna clearly cared about the well-being of her son with Rhaegar.

If Lyanna had endured the trauma of having been kidnapped and raped by Rhaegar (or Aerys or any other kidnapper/rapist), why would she care what happened to the product of those violent acts? I would think a traumatized victim would want nothing to do with a bastard product of an unwilling union.

We know that Lyanna was described as "willful", that she was a fighter and was at least wary of Robert whom she knew to be a womanizer. It's reasonable to assume Lyanna didn't want to marry Robert, and there was some evidence of a romantic spark between Rhaegar and Lyanna. If Arya resembles Lyanna in temperament so much that Ned gives her a warning about how Lyanna's willfulness led to her untimely death, then Lyanna must have done something to make Ned think that. Being a kidnapping and rape victim wouldn't make him think that of her, but running off with her married lover might. After all, Lyanna's disappearance was the event that led to the bloody rebellion that followed as well as Lyanna's untimely death.

I think Lyanna was an active person, not passive. I don't see her being abducted without putting up a fight and leaving evidence of it behind. I have to assume based on the evidence that she ran away willingly and was not kidnapped, that her assumed union with Rhaegar was consensual, and that their child was wanted and loved.

[Dragonfish]

You know, if you were to examine the L+R=J theory with this much scrutiny you'd realize the evidence for it is actually more flimsy than this theory.

How so? Until you adequately explain why, I'm going to have to assume that you're just getting a bit testy because your theory isn't holding up under scrutiny.

ETA--By the way, we're in the tenth part of a thread going back a decade that has been scrutinizing R+L=J even more so than your theory, yet it continues to be the most dominant and accepted theory. So I don't really think your point is valid.

[The Scabbard Of the Morning]

It's only the most dominant theory because the alternative theories are even worse. Not because the theory itself is unassailable.

As Errant Bard pointed all, all the best evidence we have seems to point to Lyanna as the mother, and that the father is likely a Targ. But the identity of the father is being Rhaegar is complete conjecture and only assumed mostly because there are no other Targ candidates. Once you introduce Aerys as the alternative father candidate, you'd see the evidence to suggest it's definitely Rhaegar is as flimsy as the evidence to suggest it's Aerys.

Further more, I don't see this as some brilliant plot by Aerys, it's certainly not a Baelishian plot where he sees moves 3 or 4 steps down the road, it was a bad plan that blew up in Aerys' face, I don't understand why you keep referring to it as "complicated" and "cunning".

[Whatever]

Do you? Seems to me that beyond Rhaegar and Lyanna's meeting, there are no facts around. (or if you go that way, I suppose there are facts for A+N=J)

And after all, even if they're no facts, most of what can be twisted to fit the theory only fits ?+L=J. (Blue rose: Stark/North: Lyanna. Stark features: Lyanna. Bed of blood: Lyanna, etc) Actually, what designates Rhaegar as the father?

ok, i'll explain it better :)

for r+l there are little facts. We have rhaegar's sentence "the dragon has three heads" and "song of ice and fire". we have his obsession with TPTWP. we have a lot of hints about R and L having been romantically involved ("died for the woman he loved" or "died whispering a woman's name" or simply R. choosing L as queen of love and beauty). There aren't such hints referring to aerys (*)

If we consider jon as a product of starks and targs, rhaegar is the most likely answer just because he's the simplest. The only difference is that Aerys's involvement would make all the situation more complicated, as someone posted above.

(*)[To be fair, there is a hint of jon being aerys's - his eyes that are "dark grey, almost black" (i can't provide a reference, but i'm pretty sure about it). almost the same color of aerys's eyes. But this is just a little detail]

[Talleyrand]

If Lyanna had endured the trauma of having been kidnapped and raped by Rhaegar (or Aerys or any other kidnapper/rapist), why would she care what happened to the product of those violent acts? I would think a traumatized victim would want nothing to do with a bastard product of an unwilling union.

Stockholm Syndrome maybe?

[Dragonfish]

It's only the most dominant theory because the alternative theories are even worse. Not because the theory itself is unassailable.

I'll concede the point only to the extent that the theory is as yet unconfirmed. Nothing in the text explicitly states that Rhaegar was Jon's father, but a lot of evidence suggests it. As has been said many, many times before, Rhaegar was obsessed with this prophecy and needed someone else to give him a child. That is his motive for running off with Lyanna. Nothing in the text suggests Aerys had a similar motive. You've tried to construct one with this new theory about his framing Rhaegar, but this theory is undermined by simple logic and Aerys' own actions after Brandon comes after Rhaegar. Nothing in the text undermines the fact that Rhaegar had a motive for running off with Lyanna.

As Errant Bard pointed all, all the best evidence we have seems to point to Lyanna as the mother, and that the father is likely a Targ. But the identity of the father is being Rhaegar is complete conjecture and only assumed mostly because there are no other Targ candidates. Once you introduce Aerys as the alternative father candidate, you'd see the evidence to suggest it's definitely Rhaegar is as flimsy as the evidence to suggest it's Aerys.

I think this is wishful thinking on your part. Can you please explain to me why the evidence for Rhaegar being the father is flimsy? I've been asking you over and over to address this, yet you refuse to do so and insist that I'll simply "see" that it's flimsy once I've examined it more closely. I'm sorry, but as a matter of argument, that's just not gonna cut it.

Further more, I don't see this as some brilliant plot by Aerys, it's certainly not a Baelishian plot where he sees moves 3 or 4 steps down the road, it was a bad plan that blew up in Aerys' face, I don't understand why you keep referring to it as "complicated" and "cunning".

It's needlessly complex to the extent that Aerys could simply have Lyanna killed rather than abducted and raped and still accomplish his goal of framing Rhaegar. The only reason to have the whole "rape" thing in there is that, well, there'd be no A+L=J otherwise. In other words, your theory does not grow organically from an examination of the evidence.

In any event, a plot on the part of Aerys to frame his own son would at least be underhanded if not cunning, and as I've said repeatedly Aerys is the kind of guy who addresses threats to his rule in decidedly heavy-handed ways. He doesn't seem like the kind of guy to devise schemes, he seems like the kind of guy to say, "You're a traitor and I'mma burn you."

[The Scabbard Of the Morning]

I've already explained why killing doesn't work. Because Rhaegar has no believable motivation to kill her, he does, however, have a believable motivation to have sex with her.

[KyleLitke]

The bottom line is Rhaegar and Lyanna fits the few facts we do have, which is that everyone, to a man, agrees Rhaegar and Lyanna went off together (whether they think it was willingly or whether they think she was kidnapped). Every comment and point of view backs that up, Brandon goes to Kings Landing demanding RHAEGAR'S head, not Aerys, etc. The blue rose could be argued to simply represent the north, but the blue rose is a major part of the story of Bael the Bard, which goes along perfectly with the idea that Rhaegar and Lyanna ran off together but the Starks at least think she was kidnapped.

We know Rhaegar was obsessed with prophecies, and thought one of his children would be the prince that was promised. We know about the Dragon has 3 heads prophecy, giving Rhaegar a reason to have 3 kids. We know he knew of "the song of ice and fire". It's POSSIBLE (and yes, this is guesswork, but at least we know of the existence of this prophecy which is more than we can say for the Aerys stuff) that Rhaegar came to believe it had something to do with a Stark and a Targaryen (ice and fire). It appears the prophecy actually refers to Dany, and Rhaegar was likely misinterpreting the prophecy, but it gives a clear reason.

It just seems like this Aerys idea is a theory that someone came up with first, then tried to form a theoretical storyline that might fit it that has zero facts to back it up save for an attempt to psychologically analyze two characters we've only seen through second hand flashbacks. And it's kind of frustrating that everytime we offer up a reason why Rhaegar absolutely would do this (the prophecy, shouldn't have even come to war if not for Aerys' actions that Rhaegar couldn't have foreseen), or offering up facts beyond simply "Targaryen dad" that lean toward Rhaegar (the Bael the Bard story, Rhaegar's belief in the prophecy, the fact that everyone who's thought about or commented on it thinks Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna or, in Dany's case, implies that Rhaegar loved Lyanna), they're totally ignored and not responded to. I'm not saying Aerys + Lyanna is impossible, but it's needlessly complicated, not backed up by the books at all, requires huge assumptions and a complete storyline that isn't even hinted at in the books...the only evidence we have of any kind of problems between Aerys and Rhaegar are from after the war has already started. If Aerys is so paranoid over Rhaegar, why have Brandon and Rickard (and the heir to the Vale) executed for demanding Rhaegar show himself? Could have avoided a war and gotten rid of Rhaegar.

I'd love to discuss the theory but the points we're making showing possible explanations (backed up in the books, albeit those aren't the only possible explanations) are just being ignored.

[KyleLitke]

I've already explained why killing doesn't work. Because Rhaegar has no believable motivation to kill her, he does, however, have a believable motivation to have sex with her.

Then why not just let Brandon kill Rhaegar? Or fight him in a trial by combat? If Brandon wins, then Aerys is rid of Rhaegar (in your theory this seems to be his goal) and there's no war. If Rhaegar wins, then everything continues as is except there's probably no war since it was a trial by combat. And what evidence do we even have that Rhaegar and Aerys had any kind of problems prior to the war starting? Or, honestly, that Aerys EVER had a problem with Rhaegar? There's some evidence that Rhaegar was beginning to have problems with Aerys once the war was underway, but as far as Aerys to Rhaegar, the only thing we've ever seen about their relationship, that I can recall, is that Aerys had Brandon and crew, plus their fathers, all executed for even thinking of threatening his son, and later on during the war Aerys made Rhaegar's friend Hand of the King (which may not have had anything to do with Rhaegar, we don't know, but it certainly doesn't show Aerys to be insanely paranoid about Rhaegar...if he was, why would he ever make his friend the Hand?).

[The Scabbard Of the Morning]

Because Lyanna is alive, which means if Rhaegar shows up with her everyone will know the truth. In my theory, once Rhaegar spirits Lyanna away, Aerys' plan is doomed to fail and he moved onto the cover up my screw up phase by targeting the Starks and Baratheons to ensure those two houses are as weak as possible by the time the truth comes out.

And you don't find it a little intriguing that Brandon is at KL asking for Rhaegar's head immediately after Lyanna disappeared? Do you think this is the likely response if the she simply ran away. How is Brandon so certain that Lyanna's disappearance is related to Rhaegar? To the point of calling him out at the Red Keep. You don't do something like that based on a hunch, based on what you suspect might have happened, you are literal betting your life on it and there had to have been very strong evidence for him to act with that level of certainty. Which is why I theorize that not only was she abducted but there was physical evidence of the abduction that implicates Rhaeger.

[Dragonfish]

I've already explained why killing doesn't work. Because Rhaegar has no believable motivation to kill her, he does, however, have a believable motivation to have sex with her.

Ok, so why not have whoever's carrying out this deed rape and kill Lyanna wherever she's staying, then leave the evidence framing Raegar? Why does Lyanna have to be abducted and brought to Aerys to be raped and killed? It must be because otherwise you wouldn't have a theory.

[Dragonfish]

Because Lyanna is alive, which means if Rhaegar shows up with her everyone will know the truth. In my theory, once Rhaegar spirits Lyanna away, Aerys' plan is doomed to fail and he moved onto the cover up my screw up phase by targeting the Starks and Baratheons to ensure those two houses are as weak as possible by the time the truth comes out.

And you still haven't addressed my previous questions: how exactly did Rhaegar manage to spirit Lyanna away right after she was raped but before she was killed? Why did Aerys spirit her away to begin with when he could have simply had her raped and killed where she was? Your theory is making things unrealistically complicated just so you can put Aerys and Lyanna in the same bed.

And you don't find it a little intriguing that Brandon is at KL asking for Rhaegar's head immediately after Lyanna disappeared? Do you think this is the likely response if the she simply ran away. How is Brandon so certain that Lyanna's disappearance is related to Rhaegar? To the point of calling him out at the Red Keep. You don't do something like that based on a hunch, based on what you suspect might have happened, you are literal betting your life on it and there had to have been very strong evidence for him to act with that level of certainty. Which is why I theorize that not only was she abducted but there was physical evidence of the abduction that implicates Rhaeger.

Brandon is not the kind of character to wait for the available physical evidence before making an informed decision about the next course of action. He's a frickin' hothead. It's one of the few things the author has chosen to tell us about his character, so it's probably important. And it's not at all unreasonable to suppose that, for instance, someone witnessed Rhaegar running off with Lyanna, and that when the news reached Brandon he assumed that she must have been kidnapped. This is a much simpler theory than the idea that Aerys framed Rhaegar.

[Edward the Great]

Do you think this is the likely response if the she simply ran away. How is Brandon so certain that Lyanna's disappearance is related to Rhaegar?

Brandon the hot head? You have not been reading the same books as the rest of us.