Libya, MENA thread 9

[S John]

Libya, on the other hand, is in the midst of a civil war, with Khadaffi's loyalist forces numbering no more than a few 10,000's at the most. In that case, even 1000 well trained western troops can easily tip the balance, something that is within their capabilities.

You are assuming that Ghaddafi's forces will come out and face an invading Western army in winner-take-all showdown... they won't. Well, if they're smart they wont. Some of them will probably fight a couple initial largeish scale battles, then they'll see they are outmatched and will blend in the population and begin to mount an insurgency a la the Ba'athists in Iraq. Of course, other groups will get in on the fun too. They'll occupy themselves by stirring up shit where they can, y'know, throw up the occasional ambush, maybe recruit a few suicide bombers, start planting IED's, kidnap westerners and government officials, recruiting an increasingly desperate population to their cause, etc. The usual. It'll look really, really familiar even though, for some reason I cannot fathom, some people are saying it'll be different this time. It won't be.

So, during the exhausting and thankless process of trying to root out these Ghaddafi loyalists, young soldiers from NATO forces far away from home will get twitchy or overzealous, or perhaps there will be a misunderstanding arising from the language/culture barrier, either way they'll end up wasting a few civilians. It'll happen more than once. The local people will start getting resentful of the foreign presence in the country. After all, they'll think, 'if it hadn't been for these foreigners meddling the war would have been over in a matter of days. Why didn't they just mind their own fucking business? My life is worse than when Ghaddafi was in charge.'

This talk of putting advisors on the ground... step one to the above happening.

Well, the bold part is not entirely true. According to a recent article in the Huffington Post the Pentagon were well aware of what this operation needed but the White House refused to listen.

Full article.

I suspect that Obama figured we could kill Ghadaffi in the bombings. Not necessarily a bad plan, but it turns out its kind of hard to pinpoint one specific guy. bin Laden is still out there (or dead not by us) and we found Saddam in a hole in the ground.

[KAH]

What we're looking at is a battle of attrition where the rebels can only get stronger. They have an adequate population base and most of the oil. They have the prospect of billions to be released to their accounts from Western governments from Gaddafi's frozen assets. They have a secure supply line and rear in Egypt, increasing foreign recognition, and will slowly accumulate training, weapons, experience, and structure. Meanwhile NATO will be attriting Gaddafi's heavy weapons and armor assets whenever they show themselves.

Gaddafi, OTOH, has no means of resupply or reinforcement. He is cut off economically. How much longer can he feed Tripoli or his own forces? As the balance of forces begins to swing against him, he may see further defections.

A bit about the supply situation in Libya.

Gaddafi is trying to import gasoline through Tunisia, aiming to dodge sanctions by transferring fuel from ship to ship. The rebels too look to have been lining up supply options, possibly aiming to swap crude exports for shipments of refined products.

Gaddafi may be struggling to get fuel and other supplies to his forces along the exposed road to eastern Libya in the face of NATO air strikes. But the rebels also face challenges as they try to support fighters in the besieged western enclave of Misrata, surrounded by Gaddafi forces and under heavy fire.

Basically, it definitely seems to be going to be a long, drawn-out war. Gaddafi has neutered the army's officer ranks by keeping their families hostage, so any fast improvement in leadership for the rebels seems unlikely.

[Kouran]

Eh according to AP Obama approved drone strikes in Libya. Looks like we might be going for the chain of command now.

[Maithanet]

Eh according to AP Obama approved drone strikes in Libya.

I saw that as well. Is this a big deal? I don't really see how this changes much of anything, but then I don't really know the difference in capabilities between a Predator and a manned fighter-bomber.

[Kouran]

I saw that as well. Is this a big deal? I don't really see how this changes much of anything, but then I don't really know the difference in capabilities between a Predator and a manned fighter-bomber.

The biggest advantage a Predator or Reaper has over a manned fighter/bomber is loiter time. The Predator has a loiter time of up to 24 hours. So assuming you are flying out of Sicily its 311 air miles, the Pred has a cruise speed of about 100mph, so 6 hours of flight time to and from the battlefield, 18 hours of loiter time.

That gives you plenty of time to find a good target or a high value target instead of a manned craft.

As an example a Tornado has a max operational combat range without refueling of about 850 miles. So a Tornado without refuel would have a loiter of about 2.5-3 hours on station. That means to keep up 24hr operational capacity you need 2 Predators or 8 Tornado's. Sure the Tornado can carry a lot more firepower but what good does it do if you cant be on station all the time to deliver it?

[Yoadm]

You are assuming that Ghaddafi's forces will come out and face an invading Western army in winner-take-all showdown... they won't. Well, if they're smart they wont. Some of them will probably fight a couple initial largeish scale battles, then they'll see they are outmatched and will blend in the population and begin to mount an insurgency a la the Ba'athists in Iraq. Of course, other groups will get in on the fun too. They'll occupy themselves by stirring up shit where they can, y'know, throw up the occasional ambush, maybe recruit a few suicide bombers, start planting IED's, kidnap westerners and government officials, recruiting an increasingly desperate population to their cause, etc. The usual. It'll look really, really familiar even though, for some reason I cannot fathom, some people are saying it'll be different this time. It won't be.

So, during the exhausting and thankless process of trying to root out these Ghaddafi loyalists, young soldiers from NATO forces far away from home will get twitchy or overzealous, or perhaps there will be a misunderstanding arising from the language/culture barrier, either way they'll end up wasting a few civilians. It'll happen more than once. The local people will start getting resentful of the foreign presence in the country. After all, they'll think, 'if it hadn't been for these foreigners meddling the war would have been over in a matter of days. Why didn't they just mind their own fucking business? My life is worse than when Ghaddafi was in charge.'

This talk of putting advisors on the ground... step one to the above happening.

I didn't mean putting European troops as a replacement for the rebels, but rather as a spearhead. Helping defend Misratah, aiding in the initial attacks against Kaddafi's forces while letting the rebels take the brunt. The latter are hardly well trained, but they can afford to suffer losses, losses that the west can't. A few thousand troops can make a whole lot of difference, and then fighting an insurgency will be the rebels job anyway. A terrible option from a political point of view, but militarily at least it is doable.

[Ckrisz]

The loiter time and surveillance capabilities also give drones the capability to call in airstrikes as well or better than a forward observer on the ground. This could potentially help resolve the problem with close air support in urban environments like Misurata, since you really need steady eyes on target to do any kind of indirect fire support right. A drone armed with Hellfires can also take out tanks, artillery pieces, and soft buildings.

Obviously they are not perfect, though.

[kissoon]

Don't know if this was posted yet, apologies if so.

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/mounting-evidence-of-rebel-atrocities-in-libya/

While the International Criminal Court has announced that it is investigating charges of war crimes against Muammar al-Gaddafi and other members of the Libyan regime, harrowing video evidence has emerged that appears to show atrocities committed by anti-Gaddafi rebels. Among other things, the footage depicts summary executions, a prisoner being lynched, the desecration of corpses, and even a beheading. The targets of the most serious abuse are frequently black African prisoners. The ultimate source of the footage appears to be rebel forces or sympathizers themselves.

I went ahead and watched one video, the one with the black African having his head chopped off. Not a good look for the rebels.

[Ckrisz]

Libya's rebels firmly in control in mountainous west

Reporting from Beirut— Moammar Kadafi's forces came by the thousands with tanks, armored vehicles and rocket launchers to quell an uprising in the forbidding Western Mountains region of Libya.

They left Zintan last month in a rout, rebels and Western journalists say, running through the woods as residents of the rebellious city pursued them using weapons and equipment seized from troops. It was a decisive battle that exposed the far western flank of Kadafi's security forces.

"What happened here was a beautiful thing," Milad Lameen, a 59-year-old former Libyan Airlines official and businessman who now serves as a political leader in Zintan, said in an interview conducted over Skype. "The equation was absolutely against us. But his troops and his mercenaries did not have a winning cause. We have a good cause."

While international attention has been focused on the rebel-controlled stronghold of Benghazi in eastern Libya and the besieged coastal city of Misurata, tens of thousands of Libyans have taken control of a mountainous region stretching about 100 miles from the Tunisian border toward the capital, Tripoli. The provisional government in the far west is in touch with the rebels in Benghazi but not under their authority.

On Thursday, Kadafi's forces suffered another blow in the Western Mountains region when rebels took over the Wazin-Dehibat border crossing with Tunisia, giving them access to supplies to sustain their enclave. The Libyan government denied that the border post had fallen, even as photographs show protesters there waving the pre-Kadafi flag of Libya ...

[KAH]

Libya's rebels firmly in control in mountainous west

Some Wiki background for the rebel activity around Zintan.

ETA; Claims that Gaddafi's troops are retreating from Misrata.

"We have been told to withdraw. We were told to withdraw yesterday," a government soldier captured by rebels, Khaled Dorman, told Reuters on Saturday from the back of a pickup truck.

He was among 12 wounded soldiers brought by rebels to hospital in Misrata, 200 km (130 miles) east of Tripoli. Blasts and machinegun fire could be heard in the distance.

Another serviceman, asked by a Reuters correspondent if the government had lost control of Misrata, said "yes."

Probably to soon to say if we're seeing the beginning of the end, but it does sound promising.

EATA; Saleh on his way out?

[KAH]

Hama repeated?

Syria's army has advanced into the southern city of Deraa, with tanks being used to back troops, according to activists and unverified video footage.

One activist was quoted as saying that security forces were "firing in all directions", and at least five people were reportedly killed.

Witnesses also said security forces had opened fire in a suburb of Damascus.

A prominent human rights campaigner said President Bashar al-Assad had launched a "savage war" on protesters.

[Yoadm]

Less than stellar poll coming from Egypt:

Poll: More than half of Egyptians want to cancel peace treaty with Israel

Only 36 percent of Egyptians are in favor of maintaining the treaty, according to U.S.-based polling company.

By The Associated Press

More than half of all Egyptians would like to see the 1979 peace treaty with Israel annulled, according to results of a poll conducted by the U.S.-based Pew Research Center released Monday.

According to the poll results, only 36 percent of Egyptians are in favor of maintaining the treaty, compared with 54 percent who would like to see it scrapped.

The poll highlights the deep unpopularity of the three-decade-old treaty, which was scrupulously adhered to by former President Hosni Mubarak, who was ousted February 11.

The poll, based on interviews with 1,000 Egyptians around the country, was conducted between March 24 and April 7 as part of the Spring 2011 Pew Global. Attitudes survey that was conducted in 22 countries. The poll has a sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The poll also revealed that most Egyptians are optimistic about where the country is headed following the 18-day popular uprising, and they look forward to greater democracy in their country.

The country's youth-led pro-democracy movement, which rocked Egypt and reworked the political environment, had a dramatic effect on people's attitudes. The polls show a major rise in optimism and changing of national priorities.

In 2007, Egyptian were evenly split over which was more important, a strong leader or democracy, but in the recent poll 64 percent rated democracy higher.

.http://www.haaretz.c...israel-1.358107

[The Iceman of the North]

Latest news from this corner of the world. Norwegian F-16's did not manage to kill General Sheen, although I'm not sure if that was their actual mission.

[Ckrisz]

Latest news from this corner of the world. Norwegian F-16's did not manage to kill General Sheen, although I'm not sure if that was their actual mission.

Screw your F-16s, where are your longboats?

[The Iceman of the North]

Screw your F-16s, where are your longboats?

In case you haven't noticed, there's a Royal Wedding we're obliged to disrupt.

[Yoadm]

Hama repeated?

Probably not..yet. Hama caused, what, 30,000 deaths?

[The Marquis de Leech]

EATA; Saleh on his way out?

A shame that they had to include the "immunity from prosecution" provision, but I'm sure that could be tinkered with later...

[KAH]

A shame that they had to include the "immunity from prosecution" provision, but I'm sure that could be tinkered with later...

To be honest, an immunity deal is something I believe a lot of people should think long and hard about before rejecting out of hand. Dictators can destroy a horrendous lot of people when they feel they're backed into a corner.

Saleh may be severely weakened - yet, he's got three loyal security organizations headed by family. On the other hand, in contrast with Libya, the Yemeni army seems be a lot bigger, so there's that. Don't know how cohesive a force they represent, however.

[snake]

If true, it seems like NATO is going after Gaddafi. Too bad they missed him and got the kids but I guess that is the chance you take with these kind of strikes.

Story.

[Horza]

They've been hitting the compound and other Gaddafi facilities for a while now.