GRRM's new Not a Blog post

[Padraig]

I'm of a similar opinion. I don't mind guest POVs. In fact, I love guest POVs. I'm still of a mindset that Brienne and Sam could have been guest POVs from the beginning...nothing has happened in their chapters to suggest that they needed more than two chapters per book.

I never like those kind of statements. Its very subjective. Some people will love Sam's chapters. Others will want them to be dropped. Its not like Sam has a lot of chapters though. 3 in aSoS and 5 in aFfC IIRC. And certainly the chapters in aSoS have a very easy to identify purpose (show the further collapse of the NW and Jon's rise). And aFfC ties Aemon and the Citadel into the mix. All important features. I think it is clear that Sam is going to learn something important in his studies also.

God I hope not. He needs to start shedding POVs, not extending their stays. There are already too many characters (*cough Catelyn, Gregor cough*) whose stays are already overlong. Granted they are not POVs but people need to start dying and stay dead (wights do not count) otherwise one of the strengths of this series is gone.

I don't think one of the strengths of the series is that characters die and stay dead. Wights are intrinsic to the ultimate struggle in Westeros. unCat is around but at a terrible price. Its the price that people have to pay that is (one of) the strengths of the series IMO.

If you clear away all the guest POVs then you are left with 11 (12 if you assume Theon is not a guest POV). That's a manageable number, especially if you don't think all 11 (or 12) will survive aDwD. I think GRRM will always use guest POVs now but since they only take up a few chapters, that's not a real issue either. In other words, I think the scale of the problem when it comes to POV numbers is overplayed.

I do expect Brienne to play more of a role in the story. :)

[Noroldis]

I just realized something about the situation at King's Landing. In his post, GRRM states that "some of the characters who were featured as POVs in A FEAST FOR CROWS will reappear, since the timeframe covered by DANCE extends well beyond that of FEAST." So unless he means to have the KL situation turn into a long, drawn-out stalemate between the Faith, the Tyrells, and possibly the Lannisters that lasts until book 6, he'll have to resolve that conflict in Dance, even if he does so with only a few Cersei (and possibly Jaime) chapters.

[Faint]

I just realized something about the situation at King's Landing. In his post, GRRM states that "some of the characters who were featured as POVs in A FEAST FOR CROWS will reappear, since the timeframe covered by DANCE extends well beyond that of FEAST." So unless he means to have the KL situation turn into a long, drawn-out stalemate between the Faith, the Tyrells, and possibly the Lannisters that lasts until book 6, he'll have to resolve that conflict in Dance, even if he does so with only a few Cersei (and possibly Jaime) chapters.

I may be wrong but I have started to think that too much has been made of the situation in King's Landing. I don't see the necessity for any of what's going on there to be detailed explicitly in a POV. If we only get updates via Qyburn to Cersei as we did at the end of AFfC, I think that would be more than enough. As it is, our only POV that we know will be there during the book, is Cersei. Even assuming that Jaime will be there as well -- which I personally don't believe -- the writer has already informed us that Jaime and Cersei will not have many POVs. Of course, the mystery POV might be there as well, but even if this was the case, I find it doubtful that the mystery POV will have many chapters -- the sheer number of total POVs seems to discount that possibility.

So let's take that once more from the top:

(1) We know that ADwD will extend "well beyond" AFfC.

(2) We know that all the actual and possible POVs in King's Landing are few in number (i.e., Cersei and possibly Jaime and/or Mystery POV).

(3) We know that roughly 60% of the book will be either a POV of Daenerys, Jon, Tyrion, or Theon.

(4) We know that of the remaining 10 POVs (Varamyr, Davos, Bran, Asha, Victarion, Melisandre, Arya, Barristan, Quentyn, and Areo), none will be even remotely close to King's Landing barring a dramatic change in their individual on-going storyline.

What does that add up to?

7 POVs in the North, 6 POVs in Essos, 1 POV in Dorne, 1 POV in King's Landing, and 2 POV wild cards (i.e., Jaime and Mystery POV).

And all this under the assumption that the timeline will move significantly beyond AFfC.

My own take is that things can't be left in a holding pattern in King's Landing. The situation, at least to me, seems a tad too explosive for that to be believable. If I had to guess: I say the Tyrells take effective control, Balon Swann is successful in retrieving Myrcella, Cersei is left to rot and plot with Qyburn, Tommen dies at some point in the latter stages of ADwD or the early stages of TWoW, then we can proceed to Littlefinger's war of Three Queens between Myrcella, Daenerys, and Sansa.

[Noroldis]

Sualk:

I don't see the necessity for any of what's going on there to be detailed explicitly in a POV. If we only get updates via Qyburn to Cersei as we did at the end of AFfC, I think that would be more than enough.

Not for me. The struggle for the Iron Throne has been one of the three core storylines of the whole series. To see how it ends, or at least determining who will effectively be ruling by the time Dany arrives, through secondhand updates the way you describe would be rather unsatisfying, for me at least. I admit I may be unrealistic, but I'd really like to directly see the Faith-Tyrell-Lannister negotiations/confrontations that will settle the matter through at least one POV, and for the whole thing not to be resolved in just a few Cersei chapters. Ah, well. We'll find out soon enough.

I say the Tyrells take effective control, Balon Swann is successful in retrieving Myrcella, Cersei is left to rot and plot with Qyburn, Tommen dies at some point in the latter stages of ADwD or the early stages of TWoW, then we can proceed to Littlefinger's war of Three Queens between Myrcella, Daenerys, and Sansa.

I can understand Myrcella being crowned by the Lannisters to replace Tommen, but this is the first time I've seen someone talk of Queen Sansa.

[Faint]

Not for me. The struggle for the Iron Throne has been one of the three core storylines of the whole series. To see how it ends, or at least determining who will effectively be ruling by the time Dany arrives, through secondhand updates the way you describe would be rather unsatisfying, for me at least. I admit I may be unrealistic, but I'd really like to directly see the Faith-Tyrell-Lannister negotiations/confrontations that will settle the matter through at least one POV, and for the whole thing not to be resolved in just a few Cersei chapters. Ah, well. We'll find out soon enough.

I have this notion that the struggle for the Iron Throne, or at least, the politicking behind it, will seem rather less important in light of the events happening in the North. Frankly, I think that storyline closed: everybody lost. I also think it's somewhat superfluous at this point because, if you believe in the Maggy the Frog prophecy, it doesn't really matter what the Tyrells or Lannisters do. Tommen and Myrcella are living on borrowed time. I think the Tyrells will eventually have to bend knee to Daenerys and the Lannisters? They'll either have to beg on their stomachs for mercy or fight to the very bitter end. In either case, I doubt Daenerys will be forgiving or generous.

I can understand Myrcella being crowned by the Lannisters to replace Tommen, but this is the first time I've seen someone talk of Queen Sansa.

I'm simply assuming in saying what I did that what Littlefinger foreshadowed will indeed come to pass. And the only viable third queen, in my mind, is Sansa. She'd be the Queen of the North, in the same way her brother was the King of the North. That said, I'm not at all as confident in this as I am about the other things I stated.

[Phostopheles]

I'm simply assuming in saying what I did that what Littlefinger foreshadowed will indeed come to pass. And the only viable third queen, in my mind, is Sansa. She'd be the Queen of the North, in the same way her brother was the King of the North. That said, I'm not at all as confident in this as I am about the other things I stated.

This is assuming that both Cersei and Margaery will be inviable. Both of them feel like they NEED to die at some point...the question is whether that will be sooner or later. Personally, I feel that while the only obstacle in either's way is this trial by champions, Sansa has much more to overcome. She needs to marry Harry the Heir or Robert (or Littlefinger) and Tyrion needs to die, and even then there would still be risks in her coming out as a Stark, let alone Lady of the Vale, let alone Queen in the North. After how Robb messed everything up, I can't see the North accepting her rule anytime soon...

[Noroldis]

Sualk:

I have this notion that the struggle for the Iron Throne, or at least, the politicking behind it, will seem rather less important in light of the events happening in the North. Frankly, I think that storyline closed: everybody lost.

Even if the struggle for the south is less dramatic and has less importance for all of Westeros than what happens in the North and at the Wall, the south will IMO have to play a major part in sending troops to fight the Others, as the Watch, the northmen and the ironmen will by then almost certainly be too weakened to oppose much resistance.

I also think it's somewhat superfluous at this point because, if you believe in the Maggy the Frog prophecy, it doesn't really matter what the Tyrells or Lannisters do. Tommen and Myrcella are living on borrowed time. I think the Tyrells will eventually have to bend knee to Daenerys and the Lannisters? They'll either have to beg on their stomachs for mercy or fight to the very bitter end. In either case, I doubt Daenerys will be forgiving or generous.

Who knows? Maybe Tommen and Myrcella will live awhile yet and the Lannisters and Tyrells will manage to patch things up enough that they'll still be allies by the time Dany lands (and I can't imagine the Tyells will be happy if Dany is openly allied with Dorne). This might result in the Lannister/Tyrell alliance and Dany's forces still fighting each other by the time incontrovertible proof of the Others' return reaches them, forcing a wary truce.

I'm simply assuming in saying what I did that what Littlefinger foreshadowed will indeed come to pass. And the only viable third queen, in my mind, is Sansa.

Well, I've always thought the three queens are Dany, Cersei and Margaery. All three are already queens, with the latter two effectively embroiled in a power struggle against each other in King's Landing.

[Faint]

This is assuming that both Cersei and Margaery will be inviable. Both of them feel like they NEED to die at some point...the question is whether that will be sooner or later. Personally, I feel that while the only obstacle in either's way is this trial by champions, Sansa has much more to overcome. She needs to marry Harry the Heir or Robert (or Littlefinger) and Tyrion needs to die, and even then there would still be risks in her coming out as a Stark, let alone Lady of the Vale, let alone Queen in the North. After how Robb messed everything up, I can't see the North accepting her rule anytime soon...

As I said before, I'm not very confident about Sansa being queen but I think Cersei and Margery can be safely ruled out. Margery is the queen, but she isn't actually the Queen, she's the wife of the king. Whereas, if Myrcella was the Queen, her husband would be a consort. Thus, war involving Margery, would be a war involving Tommen. It would be the war of 2 Queens and 1 King. The same applies to Cersei -- she's simply the former queen, and even that, like Margery, only in that she was married to the king.

The whole point is that the common people called it the War of the Five Kings. In the same way, I think they will call the upcoming conflict, if it comes to pass, the War of Three Queens. That works with Daenerys and Myrcella. We need a third candidate. What do we honestly have? Sansa and Asha. And Asha, judging from her POV and her relative position, will never be Queen of the Ironborn. Hence, Sansa.

I have no time right now to get into specifics on this, but big picture, I think there will be three large forces in the end (before the conflict with the Others and/or Stannis), one led by Daenerys, one by Myrcella (nominally), and one by Sansa (in conjunction with Jon Snow). The Sansa force will simply bend knee to Daenerys and/or Jon (i.e., R + L = J). The Tyrells, knowing the hopelessness of their cause, will probably kill Myrcella and present her body to Daenerys/Jon (echoing the Lannister example to Robert) and also bend knee. The Lannisters? They will be, in a word, f*cked.

[Phostopheles]

As I said before, I'm not very confident about Sansa being queen but I think Cersei and Margery can be safely ruled out. Margery is the queen, but she isn't actually the Queen, she's the wife of the king. Whereas, if Myrcella was the Queen, her husband would be a consort. Thus, war involving Margery, would be a war involving Tommen. It would be the war of 2 Queens and 1 King. The same applies to Cersei -- she's simply the former queen, and even that, like Margery, only in that she was married to the king.

The whole point is that the common people called it the War of the Five Kings. In the same way, I think they will call the upcoming conflict, if it comes to pass, the War of Three Queens. That works with Daenerys and Myrcella. We need a third candidate. What do we honestly have? Sansa and Asha. And Asha, judging from her POV and her relative position, will never be Queen of the Ironborn. Hence, Sansa.

I have no time right now to get into specifics on this, but big picture, I think there will be three large forces in the end (before the conflict with the Others and/or Stannis), one led by Daenerys, one by Myrcella (nominally), and one by Sansa (in conjunction with Jon Snow). The Sansa force will simply bend knee to Daenerys and/or Jon (i.e., R + L = J). The Tyrells, knowing the hopelessness of their cause, will probably kill Myrcella and present her body to Daenerys/Jon (echoing the Lannister example to Robert) and also bend knee. The Lannisters? They will be, in a word, f*cked.

I accept the reasons why you've ruled out Margy. Cersei, on the other hand, if she comes out of this trial alive (of which I have little doubt), will still be Queen Regent and still functionally sitting the Iron Throne. Asha and Sansa are roughly equidistant from the Seastone Chair and Throne in the North, respectively. This isn't to say that neither stands a chance of becoming a Queen, merely that they're in much less advantageous political positions than Myrcella, Cersei, or Dany.

If I had to guess which queens Littlefinger specifically is referring to, I would agree with you. He knows nothing of Asha, cares nothing for Shireen, and is certain that Cersei will be out of the game very soon. But he's savvy enough to know that Dany will be coming over soon and that Myrcella will be backed by Dorne, and his own hopes for Sansa gives us three queens.

I don't think it will pan out that way. We could get a fourth or a fifth queen in Cersei, Shireen, Margaery and/or Asha. The latter two would require something completely out of left field, but it could still happen. Even better, I think that Littlefinger's prediction of exactly three queens will come true, but Sansa will not be one of them.

Also, the Sansa force can't bend knee to Daenerys, because I'm fairly certain Tyrion will take the Eyrie on dragonback. I also don't see Jon and Sansa meeting up again, and certainly not joining forces. It wouldn't be in either's best interest.

[jlk7e]

We do realize that Littlefinger's "War of Three Queens" is not an omniscient prophecy, but something Littlefinger, a man with limited knowledge, says to Sansa, right? Given that we have no reason to think Littlefinger expects an invasion by Dany, and there is even less reason to think he intends to make Sansa Queen (as opposed to Lady Paramount of the North and Consort of the Lord Paramount of the Vale), surely the three queens that make the most sense are Cersei (Lannisters) vs. Margaery (Tyrells) vs. Myrcella (Martells). No?

[Phostopheles]

We do realize that Littlefinger's "War of Three Queens" is not an omniscient prophecy, but something Littlefinger, a man with limited knowledge, says to Sansa, right? Given that we have no reason to think Littlefinger expects an invasion by Dany, and there is even less reason to think he intends to make Sansa Queen (as opposed to Lady Paramount of the North and Consort of the Lord Paramount of the Vale), surely the three queens that make the most sense are Cersei (Lannisters) vs. Margaery (Tyrells) vs. Myrcella (Martells). No?

I agree with you that Littlefinger might not have any intention of making Sansa a queen. But I'd find it hard to believe if he had no knowledge of Dany, so she must be one of the three queens. Margaery doesn't seem likely unless the Tyrells get tired of marrying her into royalty and just outright declaring her Queen. And even though I don't see any reason for Cersei or Myrcella to NOT become queen...if the crowning of Myrcella ever pans out, I don't think she'll do it willingly.

I still have two weird feelings about the queens we'll actually see in this war. One is that even if Littlefinger intends to make Sansa queen, he'll be foiled. Two is that the addition of Melisandre POVs and Stannis' ailing health suggests that Shireen may be closer to a crown than most of our candidates. Though I would be sad to see the last surviving king go.

[Faint]

Cersei, on the other hand, if she comes out of this trial alive (of which I have little doubt), will still be Queen Regent and still functionally sitting the Iron Throne.

I have my own ideas of how Cersei's current predicament will turn out but even taking your own as a starting point, this assumption makes little sense. Whether she is found innocent or not, neither Mace Tyrell nor Kevan Lannister, nor anybody else for that matter outside Qyburn, will want her anywhere near the levers of power again. Her reign, short that it was, has ended. She might get up to more mischief but certainly not as the effective head of the realm.

I don't think it will pan out that way. We could get a fourth or a fifth queen in Cersei, Shireen, Margaery and/or Asha. The latter two would require something completely out of left field, but it could still happen. Even better, I think that Littlefinger's prediction of exactly three queens will come true, but Sansa will not be one of them.

Sure, anything can happen, Littlefinger can be totally wrong, there might not be a war at all, or what have you. I was just speaking from my own perspective. I find Sansa assuming the mantle of Queen of the North as rather more likely than anything you proposed.

Also, the Sansa force can't bend knee to Daenerys, because I'm fairly certain Tyrion will take the Eyrie on dragonback. I also don't see Jon and Sansa meeting up again, and certainly not joining forces. It wouldn't be in either's best interest.

As to the first, I don't see why the marriage cannot be nullified -- indeed, Sansa has a great deal more than just cause. It's not as even Littlefinger worries about this slight wrinkle. And, what's more, neither party to the marriage wants for it to continue either. As to the second, I can't see why it wouldn't be in their best interest. Presumably, Jon will want to gather as much strength as possible to protect the realm from the threat he knows is coming, even as the great majority of the kingdom does not.

We do realize that Littlefinger's "War of Three Queens" is not an omniscient prophecy, but something Littlefinger, a man with limited knowledge, says to Sansa, right? Given that we have no reason to think Littlefinger expects an invasion by Dany, and there is even less reason to think he intends to make Sansa Queen (as opposed to Lady Paramount of the North and Consort of the Lord Paramount of the Vale), surely the three queens that make the most sense are Cersei (Lannisters) vs. Margaery (Tyrells) vs. Myrcella (Martells). No?

Possibly, but you impute as much unlikely knowledge to Littlefinger under that scenario as in the former case. We have no good source on what Littlefinger truly knows. Daenerys? Perhaps, maybe even likely, after all, acquiring information is something of a specialty of his. Moreover, all the ships coming across the Narrow Sea mention her. Cersei's plots? Again, probably; we should expect him to have spies in King's Landing. But then again, he had no idea that Cersei's reign would plummet so fast, and surely, even we can't assume that he knew that Cersei would start a personal vendetta against Margery specifically. As for Myrcella, that's an all together stranger and more unlikely assumption. Not only would Littlefinger have had to know of Arianne's plot, he would also have had to assume that Arianne would be successful and that Dorne would have actually called the banners for Myrcella -- which as Doran has pointed out, is preposterous even on a theoretical level.

[Phostopheles]

I have my own ideas of how Cersei's current predicament will turn out but even taking your own as a starting point, this assumption makes little sense. Whether she is found innocent or not, neither Mace Tyrell nor Kevan Lannister, nor anybody else for that matter outside Qyburn, will want her anywhere near the levers of power again. Her reign, short that it was, has ended. She might get up to more mischief but certainly not as the effective head of the realm.

Whether they want her in power won't determine whether she'll remain in power. Cersei will definitely fall...the question is whether she'll hold on to the throne long enough to engage the other queens. They don't all have to be on roughly equal footing like the Five Kings were.

Sure, anything can happen, Littlefinger can be totally wrong, there might not be a war at all, or what have you. I was just speaking from my own perspective. I find Sansa assuming the mantle of Queen of the North as rather more likely than anything you proposed.

And I don't, so it seems we're at an impasse. I think, at most, she'll become Lady of the Vale, or Lady Protectress of the Lord of the Vale. I don't think she has the support to retake Winterfell.

As to the first, I don't see why the marriage cannot be nullified -- indeed, Sansa has a great deal more than just cause. It's not as even Littlefinger worries about this slight wrinkle. And, what's more, neither party to the marriage wants for it to continue either. As to the second, I can't see why it wouldn't be in their best interest. Presumably, Jon will want to gather as much strength as possible to protect the realm from the threat he knows is coming, even as the great majority of the kingdom does not.

The annulment won't happen unless they both meet under peaceful conditions, and I don't find that scenario very likely. As for Jon, as I said before, I don't think Sansa will manage to gather a large enough force to retake the North, let alone maintain it. Jon has nothing to offer her, and she wouldn't be able to spare much to help him. Not to mention that they weren't particularly close.

Possibly, but you impute as much unlikely knowledge to Littlefinger under that scenario as in the former case. We have no good source on what Littlefinger truly knows. Daenerys? Perhaps, maybe even likely, after all, acquiring information is something of a specialty of his. Moreover, all the ships coming across the Narrow Sea mention her. Cersei's plots? Again, probably; we should expect him to have spies in King's Landing. But then again, he had no idea that Cersei's reign would plummet so fast, and surely, even we can't assume that he knew that Cersei would start a personal vendetta against Margery specifically. As for Myrcella, that's an all together stranger and more unlikely assumption. Not only would Littlefinger have had to know of Arianne's plot, he would also have had to assume that Arianne would be successful and that Dorne would have actually called the banners for Myrcella -- which as Doran has pointed out, is preposterous even on a theoretical level.

Of the potential candidates, Littlefinger wouldn't even consider Shireen or Asha. And he clearly considers Cersei out of the running. Which leaves Sansa, Margaery, Dany, and Myrcella. I consider Dany to be unequivocally one of the three. The other two depend solely on:

1) If he even intends to throw Sansa into contention.

2) If he knows enough about Dornish culture to realize that Dorne will champion Myrcella.

3) If he knows enough about the machinations of House Tyrell, things that have yet to be revealed to us, that suggest they might withdraw support of the Lannisters(Baratheons) and find some other way make Margaery queen.

1 and 2 are debateable, but 3 is astoundingly preposterous. House Tyrell doesn't have a reason to declare Margaery queen like Martell has, which means the only way to make Margaery queen would be to marry her off to someone else. Candidates: Greyjoy? Bolton? Frey? Even if someone were viable, she'd still just be consort to a king, one with no legitimate claim to the iron throne. I just can't see Margaery playing a part in any of this. So, I'll concede that the queens Littlefinger is referring to are Sansa and Myrcella. But like I said, I think Sansa is the least likely to make it in the final roster.

[stereomuse]

redacted

[Ranzadule]

Maybe the prologue is bout the Others, through the eyes of a wildling?

Tyrion, Jon and Dany are three of my five faves (Arya, Victarion), so that rocks. :cheers:

[Arataniello]

Maybe the prologue is bout the Others, through the eyes of a wildling?

There has been a reading of the prologue character, but I can't remember if the Others were specifically mentioned in it.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

Whether they want her in power won't determine whether she'll remain in power.

Surely it does. Cersei isn't going to remain in power without some loyal force supporting her position. And who might that be? The City Watch is out of her control, the Faith is opposed to her, most of her supporters (i.e., Aurane Waters and his fleet, the Merryweathers) have fled the city, the Tyrells hate her, Kevan and Jaime want to see her removed from power... who would support Cersei if she wanted to seize power again?

[Thargor]

Surely it does. Cersei isn't going to remain in power without some loyal force supporting her position. And who might that be? The City Watch is out of her control, the Faith is opposed to her, most of her supporters (i.e., Aurane Waters and his fleet, the Merryweathers) have fled the city, the Tyrells hate her, Kevan and Jaime want to see her removed from power... who would support Cersei if she wanted to seize power again?

I am in agreement, she has no support. Cersei is already doomed. If not hung by the faith, doom in some other fashion. The newly *legally* (through Cersei's idiocy) re-armed and re-judicial faith, will be ruling in Kings Landing and nearby environs. I dont expect Jaime to come to her rescue.

Im also thinking Brienne will become unBrienne, hung by unCat and later cut down by Thoros and brought back. After that perhaps she searches out Jaime.

I still hope for a POV in Greywater Watch as the mystery POV.

[Steel_Wind]

I never like those kind of statements. Its very subjective. Some people will love Sam's chapters. Others will want them to be dropped. Its not like Sam has a lot of chapters though. 3 in aSoS and 5 in aFfC IIRC. And certainly the chapters in aSoS have a very easy to identify purpose (show the further collapse of the NW and Jon's rise). And aFfC ties Aemon and the Citadel into the mix. All important features. I think it is clear that Sam is going to learn something important in his studies also.

"I always wanted to be a wizard."

Exactly.

[Padraig]

"I always wanted to be a wizard."

Exactly.

:P

Im also thinking Brienne will become unBrienne, hung by unCat and later cut down by Thoros and brought back. After that perhaps she searches out Jaime.

No. GRRM is not going to have unPeople croping up everywhere. Beric's purpose was to pave the way for unCat. He doesn't need another unPerson.