[ADWD SPOILERS] Tyrion's Intervention

[Zombiecat]

I think Tyrion was trying to ensure that he was more in the thick of things and what better way to do that than to send Aegon the other way?

[Kadence]

Because he doesn't have any dragons.

He might not have dragons if he went to Meereen either, as stated above. Both moves are big risks but Westeros is pretty easily the smarter risk.

Dany might decide that Young Griff is neat and rescue him or she might decide (more likely) that she is the real dragon, has the best claim to the throne, and doesn't particularly want to be fakeAegon's wife and Vary's puppet's puppet.

Dany would never kill anyone who might be Rhaeghar's son without proof he was a fake, which Connintgon and Aegon both thinking he's real won't think she can get. Now Connington+YG don't realize that Dany is honorable either, but if they think she's dishonorable there's not much to stop her from killing YG the moment he shows up in Meereen with this potentially very dangerous "superior" claim - if they're afraid of Dany then Westeros is very obviously the safer place to be. She knows nothing of Varys.

Also it's not so easy to feed rival claimants to dragons. The only reason people feel so confident in this is that they are *readers* and know that Dany is the more major character, and fully expect her to win any conflict between the two. From a character logic perspective, if Aegon establishes a power base in Westeros then Dany beating him is no easy task at all. Also it would make more sense for Dany to ally with him at this point than fight him - whereas the opposite is true in Meereen, her reasons in Meereen to fight vs. marry are much stronger.

Dany still has the upper hand in Meereen, but there is actually more of a chance that Aegon can get what he wants from Dany by saving her city. Dany might actually be grateful, especially after Hidzar or whatever his name was tried to kill her, and would be willing to offer Young Griff terms for an alliance.

But the battle will be over by the time Aegon will have gotten there, presumably with Dany already victorious. Both conditions Aegon had reason to believe would happen - he wouldn't have reached Meereen for a while so it was probable he'd be late for any battles. Also they already had reasons to think she'd win because they didn't know her dragons were off the board. btw I don't think Hizdahr was the poisoner though I don't rule it out.

First, the Golden Company is basically on foreign soil (most members have been exiled for generations)

Actually Essos is closer to foreign soil to them, though I think they're probably comfortable in both lands - I think it's only some that have been exiled for generations, and even those seem very familiar with matters in Westeros. I think most like Connington are modern exiles. Mercenary companies have always mostly on recruitment, not generations.

and certain armies in Westros, like the Tyrells, do outnumber them by quite a bit

They were always relying heavily on alliance building and rallying support, especially Dorne. After that momentum would follow. Which is probably exactly what is going to happen.

Second, it is much easier to conquer a country than to win the peace as Dany showed us in Meereen.

Certainly not. Many more peaces have been made and wars avoided in history than have been wars. Also the good majority of wars do not end in conquest, just stalement, some pillage, or trivial in territorial ownership. So conquest is definitely harder. Peace also is difficult but conquest moreso. They can both be difficult but require very different skillsets, and it's the different skillsets that are the main theme in Dance anyway.

but most of the institutions (the Faith) would react like Tyrion.

Actually I think the faith will end up siding with YG and going against the "bastard" Tommen. Due to the manipulations of probably Littlefinger and Tyene.

and Aegon does something stupid like killing eight-year-old Tommen.

Although I myself subscribe to the Tommen dies of greyscale theory, I don't see why this would be stupid. Killing failed kings is pretty standard - they are a rallying cry otherwise. YG's men might kill Tommen or he might due during a sack. I don't think the public would care, only Tommen's people, who will already have lost if he is Aegon's custody. I don't see how killing Tommen would be a mistake tactically (although like most readers I'd spew some hate on whoever killed the adorable master of Ser Pounce).

Dany ends up sweeping in on her dragons with Tyrion and probably Jon and Aegon becomes a yummy Drogon snack.

I am definitely not convinced that slayer of lies means Aegon will end up killed by Dany. Killing Aegon does not slay any lies at all. A dead Aegon could still be Rhaeghar's heir, and this would just make people see Dany as a tyrannical possible kinslayer usurping her "nephew" and is as mad as her father. Aegon might die but I think this common assumption that Dany will kill him via dragon is likely quite wrong.

[kg1982]

Dany would never kill anyone who might be Rhaeghar's son without proof he was a fake, which Connintgon and Aegon both thinking he's real won't think she can get. Now Connington+YG don't realize that Dany is honorable either, but if they think she's dishonorable there's not much to stop her from killing YG the moment he shows up in Meereen with this potentially very dangerous "superior" claim - if they're afraid of Dany then Westeros is very obviously the safer place to be. She knows nothing of Varys.

The Mummers Dragon. Quaithe told her about it. Beware of the Mummers' Dragon. I don't think that Dany thinks Aegon is real for a minute especially when the connections to Illyrio are figured out. Dany thought Illyrio was shady from the very beginning and him failing to mention that her nephew was still alive doesn't help things.

Also, she'd be more likely to be gracious to someone who helps save her city in Meereen than someone she suspects is false in Westros.

But the battle will be over by the time Aegon will have gotten there, presumably with Dany already victorious. Both conditions Aegon had reason to believe would happen - he wouldn't have reached Meereen for a while so it was probable he'd be late for any battles. Also they already had reasons to think she'd win because they didn't know her dragons were off the board. btw I don't think Hizdahr was the poisoner though I don't rule it out.

Tyrion left after fakeAegon and friends and still had time to get himself capsized, sold as a slave, perform before Dany in the pits, and escape to the Second Sons. It seems to me that the Golden Company might arrive just in time to save Meereen.

Also, Hizdahr was most definitely in on the poison as his relative, the Green Grace, is probably the Harpy.

Actually Essos is closer to foreign soil to them, though I think they're probably comfortable in both lands - I think it's only some that have been exiled for generations, and even those seem very familiar with matters in Westeros. I think most like Connington are modern exiles. Mercenary companies have always mostly on recruitment, not generations.

The backbone of the company is the Blackfrye supporters, which is why it has been hinted that Illyrio and Varys are Blackfrye supporters. So they have been exiled for generations.

They were always relying heavily on alliance building and rallying support, especially Dorne. After that momentum would follow. Which is probably exactly what is going to happen.

Jon Connington doesn't have anything to give possible supporters. Doran Martell is a cautious man who supports fakeAegon for revenge. I don't think that his daughter or the Sand Snakes are that overtly cautious and will think of their own half baked plot. The other houses aren't going to support them because Jon won't give them the marriage between Aegon and their house that they want. The Tyrells will only support Aegon for a Margaery marriage.

Actually I think the faith will end up siding with YG and going against the "bastard" Tommen. Due to the manipulations of probably Littlefinger and Tyene.

I think that the Sand Snakes aren't big fans of any of the Targaryens after Quent's death by dragons. I think that there is a half-baked plot to crown Myrcella again after Doran's death which ends badly for them and probably Myrcella. Littlefinger, I don't see siding with YG because he wants to be in control. Varys would probably be the one manipulating in favor of Aegon.

I don't think the public would care, only Tommen's people, who will already have lost if he is Aegon's custody. I don't see how killing Tommen would be a mistake tactically (although like most readers I'd spew some hate on whoever killed the adorable master of Ser Pounce).

It actually is considered quite horrific to kill a little child in Westros for having the wrong blood. It seems that Aegon's death during Robert's rebellion was considered a moral tipping point. In real life, the princes in the tower and their deaths were used as negative propaganda against Richard III by Henry VII, so I could see it being seen as a horrible crime by the commoners.

I think that Aegon may end up taking King's Landing in the middle of TWOW with much acclaim and sees Tommen and Myrcella as useful hostages, but things start going badly for him right away. There are famines, plagues, and ice zombies and Aegon is blamed for all of it. Another faction, like the Sand Snakes, hatches a plot against them. Aegon orders the innocent pawns in the plot, probably Myrcella, Tommen, or both, executed. It is just too deliciously ironic for Martin to seriously pass up. Plus, it makes Aegon as unlikeable as possible which means readers will be happy when Dany swoops in on her dragons.

I am definitely not convinced that slayer of lies means Aegon will end up killed by Dany. Killing Aegon does not slay any lies at all. A dead Aegon could still be Rhaeghar's heir, and this would just make people see Dany as a tyrannical possible kinslayer usurping her "nephew" and is as mad as her father. Aegon might die but I think this common assumption that Dany will kill him via dragon is likely quite wrong.

Perhaps Aegon tries to steal and ride a dragon like our buddy Quent. Dragons don't seem to take a liking to people who aren't destined to ride them and they can sniff out Targaryen blood. I think that Jon's identity ends up being confirmed because he can actually tame and ride a dragon and that Aegon's false identity is sniffed out because he ends up as Drogon's afternoon snack. It is the same as Rickon Stark and his direwolf. The Westros DNA tests seem to be based around magically animals.

[Yellow Dog]

mah, i don't think he gives away that much. He promises 100,000 dragons to Ben, 20,000 to those two other guys and he also signs something like 55 more notes, which are 100 and 1000 dragons worth notes. All together, it won't be more than 150,00 dragons. It's not that much - we know Tywin lended more than 3,000,000 dragons. House Lannister can afford the second sons

Your avatar made me laugh out loud - then sob, because it's true.

:bowdown:

[Irys]

I am still not sure if Tyrion`s advice was well meant or not.

He certainly has some good points. The Volantene fleet was not inclined to take the golden company to Meereen. They would have had to double cross them, that`s a risk. And they couldn`t know in what kind of situation they would end up. And how they would be received. Still if they had come and saved Daenerys from all her troubles I think that would have gone down well.

And going to Westeros without Dragon is a huge mistake, imo, which Tyrion simply has to know.

But I have to admit I like it anyway. I mean there is at least a character with some balls. He is not sitting around making shady peace agreements with awful slavers in a city that is obviously doomed. Aegon, true or fals, is at least really doing something. There is massiv movement. They travel down the river, pick up the golden company, travel to Westeros and start some serious conquering.

And I think this is finally going to draw Deanerys to Westeros.

[Kadence]

The Mummers Dragon. Quaithe told her about it. Beware of the Mummers' Dragon. I don't think that Dany thinks Aegon is real for a minute especially when the connections to Illyrio are figured out. Dany thought Illyrio was shady from the very beginning and him failing to mention that her nephew was still alive doesn't help things.

Dany needs proof, Illyrio may provide that. But once again you are not looking at it from a character perspective, but a reader one. Connington and YG believe they are legit. Also again, Dany has far more ability to kill Aegon in Meereen than she would in Westeros. And she'd have more reason to then as well - he's a pretender with no proof and no leverage yet a "superior" claim, who offers her very little to her. If she decides to decline the marriage it's best to kill him. If Aegon is in Westeros and successful he is far more valuable as a husband and ally than enemy. I've gone over all of this above.

Tyrion left after fakeAegon and friends and still had time to get himself capsized, sold as a slave, perform before Dany in the pits, and escape to the Second Sons. It seems to me that the Golden Company might arrive just in time to save Meereen.

Tyrion went by ship and was travelling with a small company. The Golden Company would have a much longer journey, and also most regions aren't simply going to let an army walk through. They would have taken significantly longer than Tyrion did and definitely not reached in time. Which was easily predictable from a chracter's perspective.

Also, Hizdahr was most definitely in on the poison as his relative, the Green Grace, is probably the Harpy.

Who knows. Hizdahr may be poisoner or just a clueless stooge.

The backbone of the company is the Blackfrye supporters, which is why it has been hinted that Illyrio and Varys are Blackfrye supporters. So they have been exiled for generations.

I already went over how the majority of the company is probably newer exiles. Only a select few families have probably been there the whole time. They all know Westeros quite well anyway so they wouldn't qualify as an army on unfamiliar foreign soil if they went to Westeros. Not by a long shot.

The other houses aren't going to support them because Jon won't give them the marriage between Aegon and their house that they want. The Tyrells will only support Aegon for a Margaery marriage.

They will hear of Dany's marriage and Aegon will marry or get betrothed. You know Dorne will support him, so after Aegon marries into another powerful alliance he will probably end up with the largest army out there. I suspect Littlefinger will arrange a match with Sansa. I made a very detailed thread about it.

Aegon is never, ever marrying Margaery. Her next husband is going to have to be a big step down because no King is marrying her after whatever happens with Tommen. She's going to be viewed as bad news.

I think that the Sand Snakes aren't big fans of any of the Targaryens after Quent's death by dragons.

There's no way they would blame "cousin" Aegon for Dany's actions. They are not morons.

Littlefinger, I don't see siding with YG because he wants to be in control. Varys would probably be the one manipulating in favor of Aegon.

Actually I think siding with YG is exactly what Littlefinger will do. It would make him the most powerful and influential Lord in all of Westeros, and give him everything he wants.

Aegon barely is aware of Varys' existence. Varys has no real influence on Aegon. He's simply working for Aegon, which indicates that Varys is in this for personal reasons and not for power (my guess is that Varys was Serra's brother).

It seems that Aegon's death during Robert's rebellion was considered a moral tipping point.

Tommen is king himself, not some heir or prince, and will not be compared to the far younger Aegon and Rhaenys. Also nothing ever happened to Robert because of the murder of babes. Killing Tommen would not be unwise politically at all, as horrid as us readers would find it.

Another faction, like the Sand Snakes, hatches a plot against them.

The Sand Snakes are far, far more likely to be Aegon's weapons than his enemies.

Plus, it makes Aegon as unlikeable as possible which means readers will be happy when Dany swoops in on her dragons.

Why would he do that? He just made Dany pretty unlikable. I don't see Martin feeling any need at all to make Aegon a bad guy and Dany a good guy. That's just not how he works.

Dragons don't seem to take a liking to people who aren't destined to ride them and they can sniff out Targaryen blood.

Firstly there's very little chance Aegon would randomly try to ride a dragon like Quentyn, that would be utterly stupid. He isn't even desperate like Quentyn. Also the third dragonrider doesn't need to be a Targaryen - also I'm pretty damn sure Aegon is the Blackfyre heir via Serra which means he could well be the third dragonrider even if "dragon blood" is required. Being a false Rhaeghar's son does *not* mean you are not a dragonrider. Having a pretender end up a dragonrider is something I could easily see Martin doing, since there is a certain beautiful symmetry to the dragonriders being two Targaryens and a Blackfyre heir. Although I lean towards Bran myself, this is quite possibly Aegon's destiny.

People are just getting too caught up in the "slayer" part of slayer of lies. I doubt she's going to kill either Stannis or YG, just show that they aren't AAR and Rhaeghar's son. Killing Aegon doesn't prove anything about whose son he is.

The Westros DNA tests seem to be based around magically animals.

Drogon almost killed Dany. This notion that dragons will be what validate or invalidate Aegon is pure fancy.

[GreenHand]

To summarize, So the value of going to Slavers Bay (East) vs. to directly to Westeros (West) entails wartime and post-wartime considerations.

Wartime:

Going West exploits the opportunity of political timing while going East maximizes your numbers and support during an invasion. Westeros is at its weakest and divided right now (ripe) but 10 000 men of the Golden company, though disciplined & blooded, may not be enough (needing Daenerys' forces). Both have uncertainty regarding something essential in that the Westerosi Lords may not rally (in time) to their cause and Daenerys may not accept the alliance and/or marriage with Aegon. But in both cases the chances (for lords rallying & Daenerys marrying her blood) are reasonable, if not good.

Post-Wartime:

Suppose the Throne is won by one or both Targaryens (Daenerys & Aegon/Young Griff). Suppose they do marry, for the future of House Targaryen and the unity of the realm. What will the power relations be? Who has the veto in decisions and from whom does the power flow? What ambitions come into play. Can they be truly joint rulers. They each have their own loyal men. Aegon has the better claim if he is truly Rhaegar's son, and he is male. But Dany has more experience ruling and with Dragons, Unsullied and possibly Dothraki at her command a far far stronger military clout. So the war itself is a power negotiation between them. They may need some formal alliance preceding a marriage (Dany has experience now of poorly planned power sharing in a marriage). They both see themselves as rulers, but can they work together as equals if knew each other better. They are both young and beautiful so perhaps that helps. Aegon has to make a decision without knowing Daenerys, and we have seen how wayward and wild rumours of Dany have grown.

But through both these considerations this thread has mostly been a debate about whether Aegon should go East or West, and by implicit extension whether the savvy Tyrion's advice was honest & assisting.

But I'd like to return to the text to refocus the debate:

Unless ... Could the pretty princeling have swallowed the bait? Turned them west instead of east,

abandoning his hopes of wedding Queen Daenerys? Abandoning the dragons ... would Griff allow

that?

Tyrion clearly calls his advice bait. Meaning that he intentionally lured Aegon into doing something rather than simply giving him honest advice. Tyrion's advice related to the power dynamic between Aegon & Daenerys, so perhaps it is this endgame that Tyrion is looking to shape. They word "bait" doesn't necessarily mean that he wished Young Griff ill or defeat, only that his true hope & purpose needn't have anything to do with matter in question, namely the invasion, marriage & Throne.

Also notice how Tyrion takes this change of direction West to mean that the Griffs have abandoned hope of Dragons and marriage to Daenerys. This is curious since in the plan Tyrion outlines to Young Griff this NOT assumed, in fact, he spelled out to Young Griff that the value of the plan was to bring Daenerys Targaryen to Westeros with her Dragons & possible betrothal. Even if Tyrion was bluffing and doesn't really believe Dany will come to join the invasion, surely it would be natural to assume that if the Griffs are turning West that THEY believe she will/may come to them. Thus to invade Westeros wouldn't be a sign that they had abandoned the hopes of Dragons & a Daenerys marriage.

So the wisdom & value of Tyrion's intervention aside, THIS inconsistency demands analysis as most basic mystery here.

[David C. Hunter]

He never expected Aegon to convince the Golden Company to head for Westeros, he was just being honest in the 'If I were in your shoes' speech. Now that Aegon has landed on Westeros though, Tyrion has unconsciously screwed uo Illiryio and Vary's initial plan, they could not have forseen that.

I never took Tyrion seriously when he talks about raping his sister and killing. Tyrion is depressed and haunted ever since he killed Shae and his Father for the trial and what he did to Tysha. He hated his father for what he did to Tysha, but he still loved his father and had his father returned the love, tyrion wouldnt be the way he is today.

Same thing with Cersei who is forever cruel to him, but the few times she was good to him, it pleased him. Tyrion wants to be loved instead of looked upon as a curse. If Cersei forgave him and declared him Lord of Casterly Rock, he would be happy with that. He loved his sister, father and brother, despite everything and his talk about killing them and stuff is just bullshit he tells himself because hes trying to deal with the hurt, deal with the guilt and deal with his past, deal with his sins and deal with himself.

Tyrion doesnt give a damn whether he lives or not for most of ADWD, but he is still a noble guy. Think of that scene when he protected Young Griff and knocked the greyscale creature in the water. He knows the world views him as a kingslayer and kinslayer, but he's tired of people looking down on him, especially after he saved everyone at Blackwater. He doesnt give a shit anymore so he speaks frankly, yet untruly. He's going to act like the monster already believes he is. This is the same syndrome that Jaime Lannister goes through with the term 'Kingslayer'.

Tyrion is just trying to find his purpose again and through the talk of Dragons, relationship with peggy and jorah is helping him find it. i think he wants revenge on varys and his scheme more than anyone

[Lord Varys]

The irritating thing on the side of the Golden Company is that do not even dispatch an envoy to Meereen to tell Dany about Aegon and his invasion. Tyrion will fulfill this role now, but Connington and Aegon both should have sent someone in their stead to Meereen.

And it was no Aegon who convinced the Golden Company to go west instead of east. It was Connington who allowed that to happen. Him conducting greyscale changed everything, not Tyrion's little bit of advice. Had Connington been healthy and determined to reach Daenerys to claim her and the dragons, they would have gone that way. Aegon wishing to go that way, and charismatically addressing that topic, only helped to win the captains of the Golden Company over. But Connington and his health is the deciding factor here.

Tyrion calling his advice 'bait' can only be understood in the context of him being part of Connington's band. And he had no chance of getting the Golden Company convinced to go to Westeros, while he continued to Meereen alone to secure Dany and the dragons for himself. I admit that there might have been a certain evil beneath his reasoning to spoil the precious plans of Varys and Illyrio who turned him into a piece in their game, but it is obvious later that he actually liked Aegon, Lemore, and Haldon way too much to wish them lasting harm.

And Tyrion's assessment of the situation in Westeros is quite right. Now is the time to deal with King Tommen and his allies. If they waited another year, whoever held the power in KL then would have had a chance to consolidate his power.

So I'd guess the point was more to get a feeling of Aegon's qualities as a King, and to teach him a lesson about the Game of Thrones. And I'm not that sure if the Golden Company and Aegon would have gotten a better welcome in Meereen than Quentyn did. Considering the fact that they would have to travel with a huge fleet, they would like have arrived there after Dany's wedding (which would have made Aegon just a another spurned suitor) and her disappearance (which would likely have provoked an open quarrel among the Golden Company leadership).

[David C. Hunter]

I think Dany likes being the 'last targaryan' because she likes hamming it up as the tragic heroine. woe is me, im the last one' bs. I think if Aegon wouldve arrived there she would deny him in everything, true or not

[Woman of War]

I believe as soon as Tyrion reaches Daeneris and may be in a situation to offer his services he will subtly start deconstructing those quasi-messianic ideas of "true blood of the dragon", start suggesting to her the real story of her father's rule, probably with the help of Barristan Selmy. The purpose of this would be to shape her into a cautious, cunning ruler who knows that she will not be expected with open arms by the people of KL and Westeros as a whole and who knows that she will have to make friends. Apart form that I, too, believe that Tyrion's advice was in Aegon's best interest - Tyrion getting himself closer to Daeneris was a nice side effect.

So it will be a tactical question for her if she recognizes a claim of ( fake ) Aegon, at least temporarily, with whom else she might team up before aiming for the Iron Throne instead of waltzing right through and establishing a terror regime with her dragons. This might be in fact the clever advice Tyrion could give.

Then there is the minor question of how far the war in the North may have come down by then and with it the cold, starvation, desperate smallfolk, simply no food supply for any war. Will an army from The Vale still be able to act and move at all at that time ? Won't there be other forces, e.g. from the Citadel, who will try to nuke the dragons? Will there be other magical forces who might turn out to be Daeneris' allies, maybe studied and used by Tyrion?

What I wanted to say is that every victory of Aegon or Daeneris will be totally ephemerical and only be the starting position for the events that have to come in Martin's plot logic.

And, ahem, at the moment Daeneris is not even in Mereen..........

[Kadence]

So the wisdom & value of Tyrion's intervention aside, THIS inconsistency demands analysis as most basic mystery here.

Indeed, and this is a part of why I was saying above to take the "bait" wording with a huge grain of salt. Tyrion's thoughts are simply not consistent, the wording doesn't make sense. So this idea some have that he conned Aegon against Aegon's best interests does not hold up. Especially since he quite likes Aegon, and at that point was stuck on Aegon's side - and he especially would have been stuck on Aegon's side if, as Tyrion would have expected, Tyrion went with them to Westeros. Tyrion ending up headed to Dany instead was a complete swerve to Tyrion.

The irritating thing on the side of the Golden Company is that do not even dispatch an envoy to Meereen to tell Dany about Aegon and his invasion. Tyrion will fulfill this role now, but Connington and Aegon both should have sent someone in their stead to Meereen.

Yes you're right about that, they should definitely have sent someone to say "hey we're conquering Westeros, we have an army, come join". Bit of minor unrealism on the part of Martin there, but a small one.

And it was no Aegon who convinced the Golden Company to go west instead of east. It was Connington who allowed that to happen. Him conducting greyscale changed everything, not Tyrion's little bit of advice. Had Connington been healthy and determined to reach Daenerys to claim her and the dragons, they would have gone that way. Aegon wishing to go that way, and charismatically addressing that topic, only helped to win the captains of the Golden Company over. But Connington and his health is the deciding factor here.

This is a good point. It's unclear whether Connington would have allowed the change of plans if he was healthy. Perhaps he would have, perhaps not, but getting greyscale definitely increased his sense of urgency.

I think Dany likes being the 'last targaryan' because she likes hamming it up as the tragic heroine. woe is me, im the last one' bs. I think if Aegon wouldve arrived there she would deny him in everything, true or not

I very much disagree - I think she'll *want* Aegon to be real, but figure out he's not. But that she'll be overjoyed and ecstatic when she finds out about Jon.

I do not believe that Dany wants to be alone, the last dragon. I think she very much wants family.

[GreenHand]

The irritating thing on the side of the Golden Company is that do not even dispatch an envoy to Meereen to tell Dany about Aegon and his invasion. Tyrion will fulfill this role now, but Connington and Aegon both should have sent someone in their stead to Meereen.

I'm not sure that's necessary. While in Essos they have been receiving a steady stream of news from Westeros, especially the BIG news. And the sudden invasion of Westeros by the famed Golden Company with a boy calling himself Aegon Targaryen, son of the loved Rhaegar, is definitely big news. The anomalous (unheard of) breaking of contract by the Golden Company was already high gossip in Essos, so this is the awaited for follow up. Although there may be a delay I think they can count on word of the invasion reaching Dany via the Volantene ship headed to Meereen.

Even without this is a task that falls under Illyrio's role in the conspiracy. And we know he is already channeling resources towards reeling in Dany towards Westeros. With Illyrio involved and the viral spread of surprising news and the Volantene fleet soon to depart for Meereen I don't know that they needed to part with a trusted man. (He would have to be trusted because they want capitalize on the element of surprise). I suspect when more is one they may well dispatch someone to tell her that they have invaded rather than that they plan to invade.

Sending an envoy to Dany might have saved some time and brought quicker to Westeros (Not in reality since we know Meereen has its own war and Dany is absent, just for the moment). However, let's remember that part of the reason for invading Westeros without her was so that he could treat with her and propose from a position of strength, as an equal. This is only possible if there is a delay before she arrives. Enough of a delay for him to win enough land, support and swords for that to be true. Perhaps even the Iron Throne. That wouldn't be true if she Magically appeared at Storm's End tomorrow with Dragons and Unsullied (& Dothraki?) in tow.

[Tini]

Illyrio has no control of Dany. He will not be able to herd her towards Westeros, and certainly not in a timely fashion.

But sending a messemger wouldn't have accomplished anything. Dany doesn't know Aegon, doesn't expect a message from Aegon. A message saying that he is heading over to conquer Westeros would be very likely taken as a declaration of war. "You were never important enough to be informed about my existence, but I thought I'd let you know that Westeros is mine." That might bring her indeed to Westeros, but not as an allied party.

If Aegon could not meet Dany to explain in person why she had never heard of him, it was much better to pretend that he hadn't heard of her before heading to Westeros. If he doesn't know about her intention of conquering Westeros, an apology for invading first will be much more believable. (Dany will know it is a lie but might accept the apology anyway.)

[GreenHand]

Illyrio has no control of Dany. He will not be able to herd her towards Westeros, and certainly not in a timely fashion.

But sending a messemger wouldn't have accomplished anything. Dany doesn't know Aegon, doesn't expect a message from Aegon. A message saying that he is heading over to conquer Westeros would be very likely taken as a declaration of war. "You were never important enough to be informed about my existence, but I thought I'd let you know that Westeros is mine." That might bring her indeed to Westeros, but not as an allied party.

If Aegon could not meet Dany to explain in person why she had never heard of him, it was much better to pretend that he hadn't heard of her before heading to Westeros. If he doesn't know about her intention of conquering Westeros, an apology for invading first will be much more believable. (Dany will know it is a lie but might accept the apology anyway.)

Agree and broader, in so far as: The encounter and parley between Aegon & Daenerys is NOT straightforward. It is not a given that they are allies and could just as easily end up enemies. Especially if either or both hits a point of pride and/or conviction.

That said, there is enough incentive and common ground for them to make a peace. But it will have to be made & nurtured, not fallen back on as natural & inevitable. It wouldn't be the first time 'Good' Targaryens had come to blows, pushed to irreconcilable war.

[Tini]

Exactly. They are not natural allies, their relationship will be complicated. Not only complicated by history and doubts about Aegon's authenticity, but also by the fact that they are both striving to take the Iron Throne. And this cannot be addressed by a simple message from Aegon to Dany.

An alliance betwen Aegon and Dany is no more natural than an alliance with Dorne by marriage to Quentyn would have been. Connington and Aegon were set to railroad her into a marriage as Dorne did; they had information about her and intended to use it to their advantage. I think it would much better if Dany can start gathering intelligence about Aegon's actions before they meet. Whatever the outcome of that meeting will be.

[David C. Hunter]

At least when Tyrion finally meets Dany he wont bullshit her about her father or crazy family. Seriously everytime she ignores Barriston when he tries to tell her her dad was crazy or that ned stark was an honorable man want to push her in a river

[Tini]

At least when Tyrion finally meets Dany he wont bullshit her about her father or crazy family. Seriously everytime she ignores Barriston when he tries to tell her her dad was crazy or that ned stark was an honorable man want to push her in a river

This! It wouldn't be nearly as bad if Barristan was trying to bore her with those stories, but he doesn't. She explicitly asks for them, then suddenly decides she'd rather not hear them. Why does she ask if she doesn't want to know?

But I'm afraid that Tyrion will find himself in the same spot that Barristan is in. She'll silence him whenever the subject of her family will crop up, with questions (and accusations) about his own family.

[HouseofStark]

i want to quote everyone and respond to everything but that is an overwhelming task, especially for someone at work. i will instead, try and make plain my points.

1: tyrion gives yg or aegon or whatever you want to call him, what would appear to be sound advice BUT i think aegon taking tyrion's advice serves tyrion far more than it does aegon.

• for starters, and has been mentioned on this thread, if tyrion wants to be the power player he was before, he has to make sure that the rivals for dany's ear have to be out of the way. connington was a former hand and an able military man, he likely appears to be his strongest competitor.
  
• sure the time seems ripe for taking westeros, but looks can be deceiving as it is in this case. though westeros has been ravaged by war, the two most powerful houses are still allied with each other. aegon is still untested in battle and may have to win a major battle before other lords flock to his cause. in that case, does he really have the numbers to win? not only that, but exiled lords encroaching in westeros might leave a bad taste in the mouths of the lords still in power.
  
• if aegon goes east and breaks the yunkai choke hold on dany then he props himself up as a hero and nothing creates legitimacy quite like success. also, this isn't a bad thing for dany either. her city is freed from the yunkai and if aegon isn't legitimate then one of her dragons will do to him what was done to quentyn. if that happens then her rival is dead and in their place she's left with the golden company and a fleet of ships to take her back to westeros.
  

2. at no point do i think that cercei would abandon KL. if you abandon the seat of power in westeros then you abandon the throne and all the power that that symbol gives you.

3. i dont think margeary will be killed by the faith, mainly because there's a tyrell army in KL. i just can't imagine a scenario where mace's beloved daughter is killed while he has an army just waiting for an excuse to let loose.

i'm sure more will come to me but at the moment i have to at least look busy.

[cancerman]

We don't know that anything has changed. Parsing the prophecy correctly is the trick, and we only know enough to do that after the fact. However, just because it says "first x, then a,b,c" doesn't mean c has to come after b. We know the first pair of Kraken and dark flame haven't met her yet either so the window for the lion and griffin isn't closed. It's "lion and griffin" not "lion, griffin" so the lion and griffin have to be met at the same time. Tyrion by himself doesn't necessarily fulfill anything. It's likely Dany is just going to meet the lion and griffin later. Perhaps much later when she gets to Westeros, with some interesting possible pairings of Connington + a Lannister that isn't Tyrion. Myrcella?

You know there are speculations that Tyrion may not be really a Lannister, so that part of the prophecy may yet come to fruition. And technically, not sure if it counts as an actual meeting but Dany did see Tyrion albeit in the pits.