[ADWD SPOILERS] Tyrion's Intervention

[Bear Thlayer]

All right, I'm looking for some insight here. Based on his little conversation with the "dead" prince, Tyrion manipulates Illyrio and Varys's endgame by sending Aegon, Jon Connington, and the Golden Company across the Narrow Sea well before Dany ever does. Later in the novel, there is a part where Tyrion is gloating that he mucked up those plans.

So, why did he do that? Was he simply wanting to sow discord in the Seven Kingdoms? Was he out to mess up Illyrio's plan? Was he throwing his lot in with Dany and figured that Aegon showing up in Meereen would hinder her? I admit that the dwarf is a lot smarter than me, so someone here shed some light on Tyrion Lannister's own endgame.

[topic title edited to remove spoiler]

[the average Other]

I've wondered about this, too. First of all, Tyrion seems to have screwed up Quaithe's prophecy. First comes the pale mare, then kraken, dark flame, lion, griffin, sun's son and mummer's dragon -- but now, thanks to Tyrion, two of those aren't coming anymore. I'll be curious to see if the change is for the better or for the worse.

Another thing that interests me: Does Tyrion believe that Aegon is the real deal? Tyrion acted like he is, but I thought I caught some hint of scepticism underneath. I could be wrong, though.

Also, I get the feeling that the cyvasse game between Tyrion and Aegon may hide some symbolism... Aegon lost the game because he believed Tyrion's advice and didn't keep his dragon close. Tyrion told the boy not to believe him. Aegon seems to have completely failed to learn his lesson there because then he goes and follows Tyrion's advice again, turning away from the dragons and heading for Westeros. Maybe that's why Tyrion was so amused or maybe it just tickled him to think he ruined Griff's plans. Either way, could be that the cyvasse game hints that Aegon will fail because he is too trusting.

[Amir]

I've wondered about this, too. First of all, Tyrion seems to have screwed up Quaithe's prophecy. First comes the pale mare, then kraken, dark flame, lion, griffin, sun's son and mummer's dragon -- but now, thanks to Tyrion, two of those aren't coming anymore. I'll be curious to see if the change is for the better or for the worse.

My crackpot theory- "Luck of the dwarf" makes dwarfs= desmond from lost . basicly gives the ability to change the events of history predicted by "prophets" .

[TheEvilKing]

I think Tyrion wanted to march back into Westeros with an army behind his back and a new King to usurp Tommen, just to piss off Cersei.

Unfortunately Jorah Mormont spoiled that little plan.

[The Bronze Wyvern]

I think it was partly an irresistible temptation to make mischief (a lot of Tyrion's actions can be attributed to this) and partly a way of paying Connington back for the cold way in which he treated Tyrion during the journey.

[Peter Woolshirt]

All right, I'm looking for some insight here. Based on his little conversation with the "dead" prince, Tyrion manipulates Illyrio and Varys's endgame by sending Aegon, Jon Connington, and the Golden Company across the Narrow Sea well before Dany ever does. Later in the novel, there is a part where Tyrion is gloating that he mucked up those plans.

So, why did he do that?

One possibility is that he just wanted to mess up Aegon's mind to distract him from the cyvasse game, so that Tyrion could win.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I've wondered about this, too. First of all, Tyrion seems to have screwed up Quaithe's prophecy. First comes the pale mare, then kraken, dark flame, lion, griffin, sun's son and mummer's dragon -- but now, thanks to Tyrion, two of those aren't coming anymore. I'll be curious to see if the change is for the better or for the worse.

I realize I'm splitting hairs here, but is it possible that "coming" refers just to the journey, but not necessarily the arrival? Because technically they were all "coming" at one point.

[Sega AM2]

I think Tyrion wanted to march back into Westeros with an army behind his back and a new King to usurp Tommen, just to piss off Cersei.

This is by far the most likely reason. Tyrion thinks the most wonderful sound in the world is "a sister's screams". He even states that he would rape Cersei. He is out for blood and wants to finish what he started with Tywin.

If Tyrion lands on the shores of Westeros with the Golden Company and Aegon he can participate in the downfall of House Lannister and Tommen and Cersei's reign. And he can use the sellsword company to take Casterly Rock after Aegon takes the Iron Throne. Or at best he can be gifted the Rock from Aegon for his help with dragonlore or whatever else he teaches the Young Prince.

He wants his family out of the way and he wants Casterly Rock for himself as it is his birthright.

Unfortunately Jorah Mormont spoiled that little plan.

Not quite. He's about one chapter away from controlling his own sellsword company. Tyrion will still make it Westeros, on a dragon, and likely take Casterly Rock after The Others are defeated.

[Alexia]

I agree that Tyrion wants to march into Westeros with an army behind his back and a new King, but I don't actually think that Tyrion believes that he will ever get Casterly Rock, at least not now. He is invested in getting revenge on Cersei and hurting her as much as he possibly can (which is really sad, given that Cersei is absolutely terrified of him and genuinely believed that he killed Joffrey) but he is doing just a bit too much mustachio-twirling for me to take his efforts super seriously. Signing "Lord of Casterly Rock" in blood? Really?

Nah, Tyrion is making an effort but the point of that effort is less ultimate control of Casterly Rock (which I doubt he could hold after killing Tywin) and more hurting Cersei, Jaime, and the rest of the Lannister family. He is to House Lannister what Tywin/Joffrey were to House Stark, now.

[Nukelavee]

Sega - no, actually, Mormont DID ruin his first plan...but it's Tyrion. His secret mutant power is to ALWAYS try to adapt to events. Sadly, his secondary plan(S) lack the elegance of the primary: he guided the GC and Aegon to an early campaign, but missed it; now, he has a not-as-good company he's paying for to work with.

[MtnLion]

It will be interesting how he manages the animosity that Daenerys has towards Brown Ben Plumm. I think that he may not be prepared for it, but the Imp is quite the boyscout at times.

[Raksha the Demon]

I agree that Tyrion wants to march into Westeros with an army behind his back and a new King, but I don't actually think that Tyrion believes that he will ever get Casterly Rock, at least not now. He is invested in getting revenge on Cersei and hurting her as much as he possibly can (which is really sad, given that Cersei is absolutely terrified of him and genuinely believed that he killed Joffrey) but he is doing just a bit too much mustachio-twirling for me to take his efforts super seriously. Signing "Lord of Casterly Rock" in blood? Really?

Nah, Tyrion is making an effort but the point of that effort is less ultimate control of Casterly Rock (which I doubt he could hold after killing Tywin) and more hurting Cersei, Jaime, and the rest of the Lannister family. He is to House Lannister what Tywin/Joffrey were to House Stark, now.

Hasn't Tyrion signed over much of the Lannister wealth to the sellswords? Will he be able to afford to keep Casterly Rock if he does manage to seize it?

[Alexia]

Hasn't Tyrion signed over much of the Lannister wealth to the sellswords? Will he be able to afford to keep Casterly Rock if he does manage to seize it?

Millions and millions of dollars worth of golden dragons. Another reason I don't think he is all that serious -- if he really thought he could take and hold Casterly Rock, he would have negotiated for a better deal. He wants to destroy House Lannister now, not rule it.

[the average Other]

Millions and millions of dollars worth of golden dragons. Another reason I don't think he is all that serious -- if he really thought he could take and hold Casterly Rock, he would have negotiated for a better deal. He wants to destroy House Lannister now, not rule it.

Or he doesn't believe the sellswords will live long enough to cash their notes.

[oracle86]

It will be interesting how he manages the animosity that Daenerys has towards Brown Ben Plumm. I think that he may not be prepared for it, but the Imp is quite the boyscout at times.

Yeah, that could be very interesting, to say the least. Hopefully, Tyrion might go to Dany as Plumm's representative - can't wait to see how their first meeting pans out. :goesofftodreamland:

[Whatever]

Millions and millions of dollars worth of golden dragons. Another reason I don't think he is all that serious -- if he really thought he could take and hold Casterly Rock, he would have negotiated for a better deal. He wants to destroy House Lannister now, not rule it.

mah, i don't think he gives away that much. He promises 100,000 dragons to Ben, 20,000 to those two other guys and he also signs something like 55 more notes, which are 100 and 1000 dragons worth notes. All together, it won't be more than 150,00 dragons. It's not that much - we know Tywin lended more than 3,000,000 dragons. House Lannister can afford the second sons

[Amir]

Or he doesn't believe the sellswords will live long enough to cash their notes.

Nor does he care , between being sent to cersei to die, die with the fat slaver or selling the family gold (which he doesnt have and even if he did life>gold ) he doesnt realy have a choice.

[TheEvilKing]

mah, i don't think he gives away that much. He promises 100,000 dragons to Ben, 20,000 to those two other guys and he also signs something like 55 more notes, which are 100 and 1000 dragons worth notes. All together, it won't be more than 150,00 dragons. It's not that much - we know Tywin lended more than 3,000,000 dragons. House Lannister can afford the second sons

Yeah, it's an exorbitant amount, but they can afford it. He just isn't in any position to barter.

Surprised Plumm went for it. There's no old, bold sellswords, and signing up with Tyrion is a very risky move.

[kg1982]

I think that Tyrion was messing with Aegon just for laughs and trying to get the better of him when they were playing a game. Sort of like messing with his head. Tyrion didn't really believe that Aegon would actually be able to persuade the Golden Company to go to Westros; he expected Jon Connington to put a clamp on that notion. The dragons and Dany are important because they help quiet down any questions about Aegon's legitimacy. Plus Dany is in quite a pickle in Meereen, so she'd probably be grateful and wouldn't laugh at Aegon's offer like she did Quentyn's. Aegon actually has a company of highly trained sellswords that could probably outfight the Slaver's Bay army while Quentyn had two men and a piece of paper. Plus, Aegon is apparently a hottie and this is very important to Dany.

Tyrion is basically having a little fun right now and trying to survive himself. I don't think that he ever expects to gain Casterly Rock because he is a kinslayer, but he does want to bring havoc for his own amusement. And he likes cutting people down a few levels, especially teenagers with too high opinions of themselves. He did this to Jon in Game of Thrones and will probably do this to Dany when he finally meets up with her. Jon actually gained something from his relationship with Tyrion and hopefully Dany will as well. FakeAegon is a brat and probably isn't going to listen to Tyrion's hard truths and gain anything from them, especially since no-nonsense Jon Connington cannot even contain him anymore.

[rue721]

Millions and millions of dollars worth of golden dragons. Another reason I don't think he is all that serious -- if he really thought he could take and hold Casterly Rock, he would have negotiated for a better deal. He wants to destroy House Lannister now, not rule it.

These numbers are all from pg 861-2:

There were only 50-60 notes. The first half were for 100 dragons/person (so approx. 2500-3000 dragons total). All but three of the remainder were for 1,000 dragons/person (so approx. 22,000-27,000 additionally, which comes to approx. 25,000-30,000 dragons total). Of the three in the final remainder: Kasporio and Inkpots both want 10,000 dragons and Plumm wants 100,000.

If Tyrion were to pay everybody what he owes, he'd be out: 145,000-150,000 dragons. If he were to pay everybody but Plumm, he'd be out: 45,000-50,000 dragons. If he were to pay everybody but the top three men, he'd be out: 25,000-30,000 dragons. If he were to pay just the bottom tier of men, he'd be out: 2,500-3,000 dragons.

In SoS, Tyrion was prepared to pay that singer who knew about Shae 300 dragons to go into exile, so I think he wouldn't care about paying the bottom tier of men. I don't know if Casterly Rock would be able to afford paying everything owed to the two bottom tiers put together, but I think that it probably wouldn't be a huge problem (the way Tyrion throws money around, he must spend 25,000 dragons a year just on his own upkeep, seems to me). Kasporio and Inkpots getting paid instead of killed is a toss-up, in my opinion, because they doubled the debt, and Tyrion isn't too skittish about killing.

Plumm is a complete idiot, because he asked for more money than his life is worth (he also asks for a bunch of other things that Tyrion can't even really give him, like a lordship and castle). What *is* his life worth? I don't know. Except that once a debt becomes impossible to pay in money, it gets paid in blood in this world, seems like. Dumb to price himself way above every single other person in the company, and make it so the majority of the debt is for him personally -- who would pay rather than kill him (in this world, lol) at that point? I guess he figures Tyrion's just a dwarf, so he isn't scared, but I don't know what he was thinking.

Anyway, this is only 50-60 men who are set to get *anything* and about 450 of their fellow sellswords don't even know about this deal. If Tyrion wanted, he could probably pay the remaining 450 men 50 dragons/sellsword to kill the ones he owes money to. I think Plumm et al have been living in a slave economy too long that they forget that power lies in numbers/the mob as much as it does contracts.

So anyway, I don't think that Tyrion really beggared Casterly Rock with all those contracts, and I doubt he's going to end up paying out *all* those contracts (in money, lol) anyway. He doesn't completely dismiss the idea that he'll one day come into Casterly Rock or that the men he's promised will force him to make a bid for Casterly Rock (for example, if he goes to Dany and renounces his House and title, what happens to the contracts? They're all signed specifically using his House and/or his title. I doubt the men would just be like *shrug* guess there is no "Tyrion of House Lannister" anymore, no debts to be paid!)...though he also doesn't give a shit at the moment (I guess his freedom is worth all the gold in Casterly Rock to him, which makes sense). "Every stroke of the quill leaves me a little poorer...or would, if I were not a beggar to begin with. One day he might rue these signatures. But not this day (861)."

On the one hand, I agree that if he really thought he were going to pay everything out, he'd have negotiated...except, what's his leverage? How would he even go about negotiating? It's not like he can pretend to go to another sellsword company, and these people aren't getting money out of his pocket right now so it's not like he can plead poverty really. He'd have had to negotiate for a better/bigger role within the company, and since he's in hiding that probably wouldn't be something he'd want anyway.

Well anyway! This is all kind of beside the point. I think the big thing about making it *Casterly Rock* who owes the money to the sellswords (not Tyrion just on his own), the thing is that he's now got 50 men (who are in command of 450 more) who have a vested interest in him becoming Lord of Casterly Rock. Despite going on and on about the figures, I think that's what's actually most important.