[ADWD Spoilers] Mance's Story

[SeanF]

I share everyones' scepticism about how much truth there is in the letter.

A further point occurs to me. Why wasn't the letter written by Roose, who is in charge? That suggests to me that Roose is either dead or badly injured.

[Duskfire]

I share everyones' scepticism about how much truth there is in the letter.

A further point occurs to me. Why wasn't the letter written by Roose, who is in charge? That suggests to me that Roose is either dead or badly injured.

Or Ramsey wrote it without Roose knowing, which wouldnt exactly be against character.

[Ice Turtle]

The three things I cant stop thinking about:

The letter demands Mance's son, but Mance knows the boy on the Wall ins't his.

Who else than Ramsay would write about Reek? He is important for Ramsay and Roose and probably Mance knows it, but why to write about him to Jon? Reek is no one to him, why not to call him Theon?

"I should talk with Melisandre...she can find Ramsay Snow for me." Now, what this is supposed to mean? Does Jon doubt Rasay is really in Winterfell or does he just want to know what is happening there?

[Whatever]

....are we sure mance knows about his son? i don't think so

[Miguel Tonnies]

Allthough I would like Mance to stick around, his ressurection was one of the biggest weak points in a DWD.

Miguel

[Whatever]

@Miguel: why?

[DJ Dawn]

My thought was that Theon wrote the letter to try and get Jon to bring the NW or wildlings to help Stannis.

The banker seems to be plenty brilliant and cunning to come up with that plan once he arrived at Stannis' camp, and the banker certainly wants Stannis to win so the loans will be paid back to the Iron Bank.

So, my theory was that the banker asked Theon to write a letter to Jon full of nonsense so that Jon would come south and take out the Boltons/save Stannis.

Eh, I haven't re-read though, so I could be mistaken. It just seems very very strange that everything in the letter happened without a POV on it.

[MtnLion]

Mance's fate is to meet Long Claw with his neck. It will eventually happen, just as Winter is coming.

[The Oncoming Storm]

I wonder: does Stannis know Mance lives? He lamented about the necessary execution but he was all "must uphold the LAWR". Mel basically did what he secretly wished for but couldn't openly say out. Stannis, as a man, knows that Mance would be a good ally, but as king he can't let a deserter/rebel live.

[Lord Damian]

Mance has always kept the proper perspective of the one important thing. The true enemy of the wildings/freefolk are the others/whytes. Now that there is peace enough for the wildings and Nights watch to stand together against the whytes, I do not thinks Mance would destroy that just to kill off some crows.

[Tammy]

The three things I cant stop thinking about:

The letter demands Mance's son, but Mance knows the boy on the Wall ins't his.

Who else than Ramsay would write about Reek? He is important for Ramsay and Roose and probably Mance knows it, but why to write about him to Jon? Reek is no one to him, why not to call him Theon?

"I should talk with Melisandre...she can find Ramsay Snow for me." Now, what this is supposed to mean? Does Jon doubt Rasay is really in Winterfell or does he just want to know what is happening there?

I don't know that Mance knows the baby isn't his. Does Val even know he's alive?

One thing that has me stuck on not believing anything in the letter is that KL hasn't received word of Stannis' fall yet. Why wouldn't they if he had been captured and killed?

The language in the letter doesn't sound like Ramsay though. He constantly calls him bastard and refers to Stannis as the false king instead of pretender. Mance though called Jon bastard quite often and knows that it's a touchy point with him.

Was Roose at Winterfell when he received the mysterious letter? Could it be that he received one of the copies of Robb's legitimation of Jon? Perhaps Mance found that letter and was thinking of a way of getting him off the wall?

I just can't believe that Mance is actually captured, not by the likes of Ramsey...not after building him up as the ultimate fighting badass for several books.

[fassreiter]

I love that so many people come to believe Mance would be the letter writer, here as well as in every other letter/Jon-thread. I really really hope I could believe it.

But there are so many arguments against it, I don't know how to convince myself.

The first argument against Ramsay as letter-writer are merely very high expectations on Mance's and Stannis' side, and too low ones on his own: Mance would never have been captured, Stannis would never have been defeated. Well, we don't know what Roose is capable of, and we don't know if either one of them was betrayed. It's unlikely that the Stannis part is true, but that's more because of a narrative move we wouldn't expect GRRM to pull on us, combined with the fact that Arya and Theon were not captured again. But that doesn't apply to the Mance-situation.

The second argument against Ramsay as letter-writer is that he wouldn't demand Val and the kid. But it's not valid. Why wouldn't he? He probably knows that Stannis promised Winterfell AND Val combined to Jon, and is still looking for a likely candiate. He wants to forge an alliance with the wildlings, and therefore he could marry her off to any Nothern lord who wanted her. From Ramsay's perspective, it's much better to get rid of her, or have her as hostage. And take the child as well, so the free folk will think twice about attacking him.

And it's also easy to assume why he would know about them in the first place: First, it's no secret in the North. Second, if indeed someone was captured and tortured, of course the question would have come up why the King-Beyond-the-Wall would risk his life for his enemies. His son is held hostage by them, so there's the answer.

On the other hand, there is only one argument for Mance as the author, which is simply that he knows about his identity. Otherwise, there are only arguments against this possibility:

- Mance has no real motive to wish for Jon to come south. He could have found a much easier way to escape with Val and the kid if he had wanted to before. On the contrary, Jon as Lord Commander on the Wall is exactly where he wants him to be, rescuing his folk.

- He would not know about Reek, and if he did, why wouldn't he name him Theon? Why would he include the Reek-line without any explanation?

- He knows Jon well enough to know he wouldn't freak out merely at being called a bastard (he tried that!), so why should he include this line repeatedly in the first place? Ramsay, who doesn't know Jon, has much more reason to assume he could get to him that way.

-He would not call Val a princess and his child a prince.

- And if he did indeed succeed at imitating Ramsay's style to the exact style of wording, to the assumption that Ramsay would think Jon to freak out at the word bastard, to the assumption that Ramsay would use the wrong styles for his family - why, in Seven Hells, did he not go through with it and write the letter in blood? GRRM made it a point to show to us that Mance was there when Jon received his first Ramsay-mail, so he knows what it's supposed to look like. And it's not difficult to get this done, use your own blood, for example.

- Never mind the fact that he could be hard pressed to get all the letter logistics done, what with finding parchment, pink wax, ink (it's maybe even easier to use you own blood, by the way, see above), a raven, and a maester to send it. We know from Chett and Sam that you have to know your ravens to get them to their destination, you can't just throw one randomly into the air and hope it will find the Wall.

- He knows that Arya escaped. The letter also claims she has escaped and the letter writer expects her to be at the Wall already. If Mance wanted to make Jon come to Winterfell, wouldn't it have been appropriate to make explicit threats in her direction? To claim that he (as Ramsay) would find her, that he had men searching for her right now? This problem also applies to Ramsay, but, in contrast to Mance, Ramsay has a real interest in getting Arya back, while Mance would be interested in making Jon worry about her.

- It would be idiotic to claim Stannis has lost the battle and is dead if he isn't. Mance knows that Melisandre could prove this as a lie in an instant by looking into her fires.

- Also, Melisandre told Jon Mance would not betray her, and even if I believe nothing of the red witch's claims, what she sees in her fires is mostly true. Besides, Mance is proud as hell. He would never write about himself sitting in some cage, waiting to be rescued by the great Lord Crow. And furthermore he knows Jon would not risk his leadership for him in any case, so why include this little bit of fake information?

- Mance would gain nothing by threatening to tell the North about the fake execution, he would only risk his life as long as he is in the North, and enrage Stannis besides. As to letting his folk know he is still alive, there would have been much better ways (tell Val, for example), and he could never have known Jon would read the letter to them in any case.

So I hate to admit, but I do believe it's Ramsay who wrote the letter. But I won't admit the parts about Mance are true, they are surely not.

And if they are :tantrum: :tantrum: :tantrum:

[Whatever]

The first argument against Ramsay as letter-writer are merely very high expectations on Mance's and Stannis' side, and too low ones on his own: Mance would never have been captured, Stannis would never have been defeated. Well, we don't know what Roose is capable of, and we don't know if either one of them was betrayed. It's unlikely that the Stannis part is true, but that's more because of a narrative move we wouldn't expect GRRM to pull on us, combined with the fact that Arya and Theon were not captured again. But that doesn't apply to the Mance-situation.

We are saying (at least, i am) that Stannis would never have been defeated in a 7 days battle. He couldn't have lasted 7 hours. Also, the reason why we think Mance hasn't been captured is because GRRM took care to let us know 1) how good mance is with a sword 2) ramsay is not a skilled swordsman.

Also, there are 2 more argument agains the ramsay-wrote-the-letter-theory:

1)where the hell is roose? (my guess: dead. I believe R. wrote the letter, but Mance killed/wounded Roose. He's not around, and Ramsay knows he's not real leverage on the northmen. Except for fake arya..oh!)

2)why isn't the letter written in bllod (either R. didn't write it or he was freaking out, because of point 1)

The second argument against Ramsay as letter-writer is that he wouldn't demand Val and the kid. But it's not valid. Why wouldn't he? He probably knows that Stannis promised Winterfell AND Val combined to Jon, and is still looking for a likely candiate. He wants to forge an alliance with the wildlings, and therefore he could marry her off to any Nothern lord who wanted her. From Ramsay's perspective, it's much better to get rid of her, or have her as hostage. And take the child as well, so the free folk will think twice about attacking him.

no, he doesn't. The only people who know about stannis's offer are Jon, stannis and mel. He could want her anyway, yes. But not right now, because the situation is quite messy. We're all sure about that.

- He would not know about Reek, and if he did, why wouldn't he name him Theon? Why would he include the Reek-line without any explanation?

He's been in winterfell. He knows Ramsay refers to Theon as "reek" and he's surely seen what kind of sick relationship they have. Also, "i want my reek back" sounds a lot like ramsay. Thus, imo, this is a proof for both the ramsay-wrote-it and the mance-did-it theories

- He knows Jon well enough to know he wouldn't freak out merely at being called a bastard (he tried that!), so why should he include this line repeatedly in the first place? Ramsay, who doesn't know Jon, has much more reason to assume he could get to him that way.

Well, jon has always been touchy about being called a bastard. Mance knows that. jon's "did you see where they put the bastard" was the reason why mance believed him way back in storm. We know jon is less touchy now (that "my name is snow" line), but mance doesn't. This is, IMO, the biggest evidence against Ramsay being the writer. He hates that word. You can't even speak it out lod when he's around. He killed a man for calling him lord snow, for god's sake! I could have believed Ramsay was trying to insult jon, if the "bastard" at the beginning of the letter had been the only one. But no. That word is repeated like 4 times.

(counterevidence: the "trueborn lord of winterfell" line, instead, sounds exactly like ramsay. A freaked out ramsay. That's the strongest evidence for the Ramsay-did-it theory)

-He would not call Val a princess and his child a prince.

Stannis does it all the time. He's just imintating the kneelers

- And if he did indeed succeed at imitating Ramsay's style to the exact style of wording, to the assumption that Ramsay would think Jon to freak out at the word bastard, to the assumption that Ramsay would use the wrong styles for his family - why, in Seven Hells, did he not go through with it and write the letter in blood? GRRM made it a point to show to us that Mance was there when Jon received his first Ramsay-mail, so he knows what it's supposed to look like. And it's not difficult to get this done, use your own blood, for example.

I doubt Mance saw the letter. Jon read it out loud, that's all. He left right after. Mance didn't see it. Anyway, he's not that messed up. Cutting himself to write a letter?

1) It would be idiotic to claim Stannis has lost the battle and is dead if he isn't. Mance knows that Melisandre could prove this as a lie in an instant by looking into her fires.

2) Also, Melisandre told Jon Mance would not betray her, and even if I believe nothing of the red witch's claims, what she sees in her fires is mostly true. Besides, Mance is proud as hell. He would never write about himself sitting in some cage, waiting to be rescued by the great Lord Crow. And furthermore he knows Jon would not risk his leadership for him in any case, so why include this little bit of fake information?

3) Mance would gain nothing by threatening to tell the North about the fake execution, he would only risk his life as long as he is in the North, and enrage Stannis besides. As to letting his folk know he is still alive, there would have been much better ways (tell Val, for example), and he could never have known Jon would read the letter to them in any case.

those points are pretty strong, i think.

you're definitively right about the 1). Maybe mance knows mel was having problems seeing stannis lately (jon does) but we can't know it. 2)I guess you're right again, although one could argue mance wasn't betraying jon. If he wrote it, he just wanted him away from the wall AND he avoided jon's range to Hardhome. He would have been killed, if he'd gone there. That part about mance writing about himself is an excellent point anyway. Mance IS proud as hell ;)

3) Again - you're right about the first part, IMO. A little less about the 2nd - he couldn't tell val. I don't think mel would allowed it

[fassreiter]

We are saying (at least, i am) that Stannis would never have been defeated in a 7 days battle. He couldn't have lasted 7 hours. Also, the reason why we think Mance hasn't been captured is because GRRM took care to let us know 1) how good mance is with a sword 2) ramsay is not a skilled swordsman.

Also, there are 2 more argument agains the ramsay-wrote-the-letter-theory:

I also believe the Stannis-part is bullshit one way or the other. Mostly it's bullshit because GRRM promised us an ice battle, I think. And I am sure Ramsay wouldn't stand a chance against the Mance, of course, but sadly, he isn't alone in that hall, the whole freaking court, including armed men, was present when last we saw Mance. But that aside, I also think he got away. But his girls didn't, I am afraid.

Still, this is no argument. If you want to capture someone, and you can throw armed soldiers at him all day long, there is a chance you might succeed in the end. Doesn't mean it's true, but it's no argument to claim it's highly unlikely.

1)where the hell is roose? (my guess: dead. I believe R. wrote the letter, but Mance killed/wounded Roose. He's not around, and Ramsay knows he's not real leverage on the northmen. Except for fake arya..oh!)

I think Roose might have been the letter's 'author' in that he told his psychopath son what to write into it, but let him take the blame if anything goes wrong with the Northmen, and let him inspire some terror with his sick personality. Roose wants Jon to take his hands off his North, and stay at his damn Wall. What better way than to tell him his allies are dead, that he can deconstruct his authority claims over the Wall with the fake execution, and that all he needs to do to set things straight again is send him some people Jon shouldn't care shit for (assuming 'Arya' was revealed as fake as soon as she reached the Wall). Roose doesn't know Jon, though, and fake Arya never reached the Wall.

2)why isn't the letter written in bllod (either R. didn't write it or he was freaking out, because of point 1)

Don't know, that's a valid point.

no, he doesn't. The only people who know about stannis's offer are Jon, stannis and mel. He could want her anyway, yes. But not right now, because the situation is quite messy. We're all sure about that.

I don't know about that. Val seems to be quite famous among the queen's men already. And there has been talk to marry her off to Manderly, we don't know if Stannis hasn't already approached any other Nothern Lord in the meantime.

He's been in winterfell. He knows Ramsay refers to Theon as "reek" and he's surely seen what kind of sick relationship they have. Also, "i want my reek back" sounds a lot like ramsay. Thus, imo, this is a proof for both the ramsay-wrote-it and the mance-did-it theories

He might know, but would it gain him in terms of creating authenticity that JON would believe into? Jon has no idea who Reek is. Mentioning him just serves to mess up the message. Ramsay is crazy enough to include it anyway, though.

Well, jon has always been touchy about being called a bastard. Mance knows that. jon's "did you see where they put the bastard" was the reason why mance believed him way back in storm. We know jon is less touchy now (that "my name is snow" line), but mance doesn't. This is, IMO, the biggest evidence against Ramsay being the writer. He hates that word. You can't even speak it out lod when he's around. He killed a man for calling him lord snow, for god's sake! I could have believed Ramsay was trying to insult jon, if the "bastard" at the beginning of the letter had been the only one. But no. That word is repeated like 4 times.

Mance constantly tried to provoke Jon by calling him a bastard - to no effect. And he did not truly believe Jon when he brought up that story about the bastard seat, he just gave him one chance after another to change his mind for real. And it almost worked.

The more Ramsay hates to be called a bastard, the more likely it is he would throw it at other people if he really wanted to make them mad, because he knows what he feels about it. Besides, he is no longer one himself, so he might feel the need to show off with his new status by making 'true' bastards aware of their difference.

(counterevidence: the "trueborn lord of winterfell" line, instead, sounds exactly like ramsay. A freaked out ramsay. That's the strongest evidence for the Ramsay-did-it theory)

Right.

Stannis does it all the time. He's just imintating the kneelers

Why would that help to make the letter seem more real? Jon knows it would have been one of the free folk who talked, so why would there be the need to imitate kneeler talk?

I doubt Mance saw the letter. Jon read it out loud, that's all. He left right after. Mance didn't see it. Anyway, he's not that messed up. Cutting himself to write a letter?

The Mance just sees everything :thumbsup:

And come on, you don't need masses of blood to write a letter, he could take it. And I wonder what's more messed up: Writing a letter in your own blood or inventing six skinned spearwives made into a cloak?

those points are pretty strong, i think.

you're definitively right about the 1). Maybe mance knows mel was having problems seeing stannis lately (jon does) but we can't know it. 2)I guess you're right again, although one could argue mance wasn't betraying jon. If he wrote it, he just wanted him away from the wall AND he avoided jon's range to Hardhome. He would have been killed, if he'd gone there. That part about mance writing about himself is an excellent point anyway. Mance IS proud as hell ;)

3) Again - you're right about the first part, IMO. A little less about the 2nd - he couldn't tell val. I don't think mel would allowed it

1. He doesn't know, it occured after he left.

2. He is, yeah.

3. If it was his intention to let the free folk know he was alive, he could have found a thousand ways to do so, and escape as easily. The one reason he doesn't is probably because of his son.

This is also another argument against him being the author: So he goes down into Psychopath Village, risking his life and that of six of his best fighting women, for what exactly? Either because he believes his son to be held hostage by Jon, or because he owes Jon as much because he sent his son to safety. Either way, why would he suddenly turn against him? And if he actually wanted to help Jon in some way - this is a pretty strange way to go about it. He couldn't know what Jon's reaction would have been. He doesn't even know if Arya had reached the Wall. Why would he try this random attempt at getting the exact right reaction from Jon, namely, to leave the Wall? Also, he doesn't know about Tormund.

[fassreiter]

While I'm at it: Doing my re-reading right now, I noticed some inconsistencies in Mance's story. Don't know if they are deliberate, or if GRRM couldn't make up his mind, or if just doesn't care so much for this character.

But we have three different versions about Mance's birth:

Osha claims he wasn't born beyond the Wall, so he knows nothing about fighting the Others. Quorin claims he was born a wildling, and taken by the NW later. The ugly queen of the mustache even claims he was born from a common woman and a brother of the Night's Watch. So what should it be, GRRM?

Also, Mance explicitly says he doesn't make his own songs, while almost every other wildling promises that Mance will make a song of this, and make a song of that... As noticed above, Mance is not exactly of the modest kind, so why would he deny that.

So it might be GRRM just didn't think too much about what his story is, therefore, might be my reasons (above) fall to pieces anyway. I am still grateful he didn't kill him off for real, though, and I think he likes him well enough to have him around some for some time. And not having him theonized in any way. Please.

[Whatever]

I also believe the Stannis-part is bullshit one way or the other. Mostly it's bullshit because GRRM promised us an ice battle, I think. And I am sure Ramsay wouldn't stand a chance against the Mance, of course, but sadly, he isn't alone in that hall, the whole freaking court, including armed men, was present when last we saw Mance. But that aside, I also think he got away. But his girls didn't, I am afraid.

Still, this is no argument. If you want to capture someone, and you can throw armed soldiers at him all day long, there is a chance you might succeed in the end. Doesn't mean it's true, but it's no argument to claim it's highly unlikely.

I think you didn't get my point. ramsay defeating stannis was likely. What made me suspect that part (and, because of that, the whole letter) is that ramsay 1)didn't get Jeyne and theon back and, most important, 2)writes about a 7 days battle. Which is impossible. 7 days battle? Against a starving host, in the snow? yeah, sure. That is what made me doubt about the whole letter.

As i said, i think ramsay wrote it, but i like exploring the mance theory (becaause mance is awesome, we all agree)

I think Roose might have been the letter's 'author' in that he told his psychopath son what to write into it, but let him take the blame if anything goes wrong with the Northmen, and let him inspire some terror with his sick personality. Roose wants Jon to take his hands off his North, and stay at his damn Wall. What better way than to tell him his allies are dead, that he can deconstruct his authority claims over the Wall with the fake execution, and that all he needs to do to set things straight again is send him some people Jon shouldn't care shit for (assuming 'Arya' was revealed as fake as soon as she reached the Wall). Roose doesn't know Jon, though, and fake Arya never reached the Wall.

He would have never allowed Ramsay to talk about flaying people. He says so in a Reek chapter: ramsay's "entertainment" is something that he doesn't want people to know about. Also, the tone of the letter is completely crazy. Ramsay is freaking out. Also, if Roose (which is way smarter than Ramsay, we know) wanted jon to stay on the wall, he could have wrote just that. Ramsay's letter is a threat, plain and simple. No way Roose was behind it. Also, roose would have used the sigil.

I don't know about that. Val seems to be quite famous among the queen's men already. And there has been talk to marry her off to Manderly, we don't know if Stannis hasn't already approached any other Nothern Lord in the meantime.

maybe, but that's not something ramsay would worry about. That guys is a psycho. he literally lacks the cunning to conceive an idea like that. (marrying val to somebody) And i'd add that he doesn't give a damn about his bannermen.

He might know, but would it gain him in terms of creating authenticity that JON would believe into? Jon has no idea who Reek is. Mentioning him just serves to mess up the message. Ramsay is crazy enough to include it anyway, though.

ramsay would include that anyway. I guess you're right - that's one of those thing that can be an ultimate proof. We could wonder forever if it was mance trying to sound like ramsay or just ramsay being ramsay. Only time (and GRRM) will tell

Mance constantly tried to provoke Jon by calling him a bastard - to no effect. And he did not truly believe Jon when he brought up that story about the bastard seat, he just gave him one chance after another to change his mind for real. And it almost worked.

He did believe him. He kinda changed his mind later, but that was after the fist. Also, mance calling jon bastard all the time did work a couple of times. And one could think that would have sounded more ramsay-like. We know ramsay absolutely HATES the word, but maybe mance thought it sounded like him. Again, i can't see ramsay writing "bastard" in every phrase. That's just not ramsay-like. He likes to threat people, to make them angry talking about skins and killing, not mocking their (lack of) mother. It's too suble for him.

(yes, i'm psychologically analyzing ramsay. I bet freud would treat him for free)

The more Ramsay hates to be called a bastard, the more likely it is he would throw it at other people if he really wanted to make them mad, because he knows what he feels about it. Besides, he is no longer one himself, so he might feel the need to show off with his new status by making 'true' bastards aware of their difference.

again, see point above. It doesn't feel like ramsay to me.

Why would that help to make the letter seem more real? Jon knows it would have been one of the free folk who talked, so why would there be the need to imitate kneeler talk?

because how else could ramsay refer to val? sister of mance rayder's dead wife? As you said above, people in the north have heard about stannis capturing "the wildling princess"

The Mance just sees everything :thumbsup:

And come on, you don't need masses of blood to write a letter, he could take it. And I wonder what's more messed up: Writing a letter in your own blood or inventing six skinned spearwives made into a cloak?

well, flaying people is what ramsay is famous for. Maybe he actually did it, before mance wrote the letter *. Anyway, i'm sure he didn't have a close look that time.

1. He doesn't know, it occured after he left.

It happened in the same chapter (mel I) and she sounded like this had already happened before. Who knows...

3. If it was his intention to let the free folk know he was alive, he could have found a thousand ways to do so, and escape as easily. The one reason he doesn't is probably because of his son.

This is also another argument against him being the author: So he goes down into Psychopath Village, risking his life and that of six of his best fighting women, for what exactly? Either because he believes his son to be held hostage by Jon, or because he owes Jon as much because he sent his son to safety. Either way, why would he suddenly turn against him? And if he actually wanted to help Jon in some way - this is a pretty strange way to go about it. He couldn't know what Jon's reaction would have been. He doesn't even know if Arya had reached the Wall.

I don't think (assuming mance wrote it) that his main goal was to make sure the FF know he was alive.

*

To clarify: when i talk about mance writing the letter, i don't think he's turning against him.

i'm assuming that

either: scenario A

1)mance escaped. I bet he killed roose anyway

2)stannis fought ramsay and won, somehow

3)mance went to stannis

4)mance wrote the letter because he's on the same side as stannis and they want jon away from the wall.

PROS: reason for writing it

CONS: it doesn't feel like stannis to me

or: scenario B

1)mance escaped (yeah!!)

2)stannis fought ramsay

3)nobody won

4)weird situation. They NEED jon to come, i don't know why

5)the letter is written to make jon come there

PROS: like scenario A, but stannis isn't involved

CONS: It would explain why they/mance would need jon. But they (stannis, mance, whoever) couldn't know about tormund.

My guess, anyway, is that ramsay wrote it. He captured a sperwife, but not mance. mance fleed or he managed to get himself killed.Manderly switched sides. Stannis knows about the karstarks.

either A ) Mance wounded or killed roose. The northmen don't want to support ramsay anymore. He's in winterfell, besieged. Stannis is out in the storm, but he has that rich banker guy and ramsay has a feeling that the northmen inside want him dead (guess why?)

or B ) stannis left for the dreadfort. He didn't take winterfell. Mance wounded/killed roose, when manderly went outside he told the other lords he has rickon, and theon told stannis ramsay's wife is NOT arya. So stannis & host decide to against the dreadfort. Ramsay doesn't trust the northmen, and he knows he's NOT going to reach stannis even if he manages somehow to persuade the stark bannermen to purse stannis. He needs some leverage over stannis thus he asks for selyse, mel and shireen .

It's my favorite and IMO the one that makes more sense.

Thoughts?

EDIT:

Osha claims he wasn't born beyond the Wall, so he knows nothing about fighting the Others. Quorin claims he was born a wildling, and taken by the NW later. The ugly queen of the mustache even claims he was born from a common woman and a brother of the Night's Watch. So what should it be, GRRM?

Also, Mance explicitly says he doesn't make his own songs, while almost every other wildling promises that Mance will make a song of this, and make a song of that... As noticed above, Mance is not exactly of the modest kind, so why would he deny that.

1) my guess is that mance is born in one of the wildling villages closes to the wall. I think his mother died and the watch found him.

2)The Free Folk likes to brag about mance. They got a cool leader, and they know that (yes, i'm a mance fangirl. I'm literally in love with him. :wub: So what? :D). I think he didn't mean he can't compose a song (he surely can) but rather that he's not going to risk his life doing something that could make a great song (ex: stealing one of eddard's daughters ;) )

[Whatever]

what a mess!

[Ser Smartypig]

I think Ramsay definitely wrote the letter. I just don't think much of it is true. I don't think they have Mance because they make a point of showing what a good fighter he is and also the spearwife saying he can handle himself. Also... didn't Thon show him a way to escape through the crypts or did I imagine it?

And on Ramsay demanding hostages and people not thinking that makes sense. He is psychotic and probably wants hostages so he can torture them. That's all the reason Ramsay needs.

I can' imagine anyone else writing the letter. I can't see the point it would serve to anyone else and I don't think they could know all of those details. Also this wasn't the first letter Jon got from Ramsay, you would think he could recognize a difference.

Further, if the letter is not from Ramsay then it loses it's creepiness at least to me.

[Miriamele]

While I'm at it: Doing my re-reading right now, I noticed some inconsistencies in Mance's story. Don't know if they are deliberate, or if GRRM couldn't make up his mind, or if just doesn't care so much for this character.

But we have three different versions about Mance's birth:

Osha claims he wasn't born beyond the Wall, so he knows nothing about fighting the Others. Quorin claims he was born a wildling, and taken by the NW later. The ugly queen of the mustache even claims he was born from a common woman and a brother of the Night's Watch. So what should it be, GRRM?

Clearly, he is another hidden Targaryen, that's why his story is so mysterious. Maybe Maester Aemon or Bloodraven broke his wows once with a wildling woman and Mance is the result.

[HodorSaysHodor]

1)where the hell is roose? (my guess: dead. I believe R. wrote the letter, but Mance killed/wounded Roose. He's not around, and Ramsay knows he's not real leverage on the northmen. Except for fake arya..oh!)

Ooookay! Gawd, this is so confusing, but here is my pulled-outta-my-ass-crackpot-theory: Mance somehow killed Roose Bolton. He knows that Roose has some control over Ramsay. After killing him, he "glamours" himself to look just like Roose, and then proceeds to tell Ramsay what to write in the letter. The real Roose Bolton knows who "Reek" really is, but Mance doesn't. Mance doesn't know that "Arya" is really Jeyne. The real Mance knows about Lightbringer, the wildling "princess" and the babe "prince", but would either Roose or Ramsay know about them with the wars that have raged? Also, the fact that Mance keeps calling Jon "bastard", because he knows it chaffs his ass.

Stannis has no idea that Mance is still alive, and likely won't be pleased to discover that he is. He is supposedly still 3 days away from Winterfell, so there's no way the Bolton's "smashed" him or his garrison.

Far-fetched, I know, but it's the only thing I can think of that makes any sense! :dunno: