[TWoW Spoilers] Arianne I

[Eaglewood]

Yes, and how many of those people with the right coloring have Rhaegar's eyes and Elia's nose? The right coloring is easy, the trick would be finding a boy with the right face. There are alot of people in Westeros that remember what Elia and Rhaegar look like. When they look at Aegon, if they don't see a resemblance to either family, they will start doubting.

Wouter on the previous page covered it even better than me:

Illyrio's own wife, a girl from Lys, had Targaryen coloring. So does Ashara Dayne (well, only the eyes, but Barristan thought Dany could be Ashara's daughter by appearance), though she is entirely unrelated to them. Then there are some leftover Valyrians like the Velaryons (remember Aurane Waters, which was theorised to become the "mummers dragon" after AFFC). And of course, there is the offspring of Targaryen branches like those of prince "Aerion Brightflame" who fought as a mercenary in the free cities, and last but not least we have some surviving offspring of the female line of the Blackfyres.

Hell, the girl with Jorah in the whorehouse in Selhorys has Targaryen coloring and no doubt looked a bit like Dany does.

All in all, plenty of possibilities for a man like Illyrio to find a child with the correct colouring. He already has access to a number of children to supply Varys with "little birds".

-- and no one has said that he looks like Elia. Why should he? All the world knew about the baby was that it had Targ features. He was simply too small for anything to be clearer, and some people favor their mother or father completely when they grow older - look at Jon. People are looking for a Targ and the see a Targ. People look but they do not see, that's a major theme in the series. Simple enough.

[Eaglewood]

But you're skipping the toughest part of the prophecy -- how the heck does Myrcella get crowned with Cersei still in power? The only obvious solution is the seemingly insane prospect of an Aegon-Dorne-Cersei alliance with Aegon marrying Myrcella.

Here's a (crackpot) sequence of events -- Cersei gets acquitted and Marg gets convicted. But the Tyrell army refuses to let Marg be executed, defying the Faith. Cersei sees her opportunity, proclaims that she has seen the light of the Seven and been saved, and aligns Gregor with the Faith Militant against the Tyrells. Open warfare results, King's Landing falls into chaos and Tommen ends up being killed. Eventually, Aegon and Dorne decide to align with Cersei and the Faith Militant against the remaining Tyrells. Cersei and the Faith demand an Aegon-Myrcella wedding to seal the alliance (why the Faith would want this, I have no idea), Dorne is happy with it because they feel they can control her now. The Tyrells are defeated, a peace is signed and Aegon and Myrcella crowned just before Dany arrives.

Huge problems with the theory -- one, why would Nym and Dorne ever be okay aligning with Gregor and Cersei? Two, I've gotta assume the assassination of Cersei's two closest allies in King's Landing will lead to some immediate reaction from her and that she won't sit around and wait meekly for her trial.

Hah, I actually like that crackpot. The tough thing is figuring out where Nym and Ty will fall into place. Myrcella coming north before ever being "crowned" def throws a wrench in the prophecy. I do like the idea of Cersei uniting with the Faith against the Tyrells, but I have a growing feeling both Tommen and Marg are not long for the world. And neither of our theories counts for what role Jamie will still play, as that entire plot thread is completely up the air.

[Wouter]

The way I see it playing out with Cersei's prophecy is with Dany being the younger queen. It wouldn't surprise me to see Cersei held up in Maegors holdfast while under seige by Aegon while Dany makes her Westeros appearance by joining the fight and melting it down similiar to Harrenhal. It was a younger and more beautiful queen and while pretty, Marge isn't described as better looking than Cersei while Dany has been mentioned as the most beautiful girl in the world.

Margaery is constantly described as being a very pretty girl, similar to the way Sansa gets described (and Sansa already has grown men effectively fighting over her). Cersei herself clearly did consider her as a possibility, so she herself deep down isn't all that convinced Margaery really can't be said to be more beautiful than herself.

And that was before the walk of shame, which hammered down the fact that Cersei is not in great shape anymore. Cersei described herself as looking like a pretty ordinary wife after having birthed multiple children and taken on a few years, much like the ordinary men from King's Landings would have wives at home. Margaery is a pretty young maid; I don't think there is much doubt she is way more attractive than Cersei at this point.

And that's not even taking into account how ugly Cersei is on the inside, whereas Margaery seems to be a pretty decent girl (though not without some calculation admittedly).

Cersei made Margaery a threat; Margaery wasn't really a threat to Cersei in AFFC.

But that could well be the entire point of the prophecy; Cersei is bringing this down on herself. She is in the situation she is because she decided she needed to get Margaery executed for treason. Take note that Cersei likely killed her "friend" Melara herself, which was another part of the prophecy that came true.

I am not certain if it is Margaery, but she certainly has been costing Cersei a lot in ASOS, AFFC and in ADWD.

My best crackpot guess is that with Kevan gone as a stabilizing force, we will have a full-on batshit crazy Cersei back. Times ten, especially after Robert Strong stomps all over the Faith at her trial. She will have Strong murder Tyrell and any of his liege lords around, maybe Rowman with Tarly and Redwyne gone, and Marg will lose that pretty little head of hers. Cersei is deluded into thinking she won.

Then Dany shows up with some dragons.

That can hardly be the case; the problem for Cersei is that while she hates the Tyrells, she also needs them. Without Mace's swords, Aegon will take KL and kill Tommen, the Lannister forces themselves are not in a position to stop him as what remains of their forces is in the Riverlands with their commander missing. The Lannisters would need to raise their levies again, buy sellswords etc to stand even half a chance if they have to go it alone. If Cersei has Mace and some of his more powerful bannermen murdered, or Margaery, the Tyrells will turn on her on and at best she may be able to grab Tommen, run to Casterly Rock and be ready to be besieged there by her multiple enemies for years. She would hardly 'win'. Winning would be holding King's Landing with undisputed rule.

The point is, in the Lannister-Tyrell alliance, at this time most of the power lies with the Tyrells. The only Lannister army in the field is in the Riverlands and is somewhat depleted, while the Tyrells have 3 large armies (Mace, Tarly and Garlan) running around and also the navy of the alliance (Redwyne). If Cersei loses the Tyrell swords, she loses the war. Unless she can get the faith and all of its new warriors on her side, but the High Septon and Cersei loathe one another so that seems very unlikely.

Cersei will have to wait until Aegon has been neutralised, but that may not happen (until Dany returns at least). Even if Connington loses in the field, Storm's End can hold out a very long time and Dorne remains a presence.

The marriage was never consummated though. Its not worth the paper its written on. If its written on paper. Thats why Tywin was so insistent on Tyrion banging Sansa.

But it's not written on paper, it was sworn before a septon. That's the problem; the faith considers her married and would object if she ignored that, and that exactly at the point where the faith is massively gaining power. It would be a massive problem if her marriage partner follows the 7, until such time as Tyrion dies (not gonna happen anytime soon) or the marriage gets annulled.

[Vympel]

Two things:-

My problem with the fake Aegon theory is the entire stereotypical villain monologue that Varys gives during Kevan's death scene. Varys spills his plans to a dying man, giving no indication that his dragon is anything but the real deal. Why would Varys lie to a dying man about Aegon's authenticity? It's understandable that Varys would exaggerate Aegon's talents during this discussion, not having personally raised the boy, but to lie about YG's identity to a guy five minutes from death? Seems silly to me. I think we should take it at face value that Aegon's is the real deal, and interpret "Mummer's dragon" as a reference to Varys' influence over Aegon, not that Aegon is a fake.

Varys wasn't alone with Kevan in that room.

But it's not written on paper, it was sworn before a septon. That's the problem; the faith considers her married and would object if she ignored that, and that exactly at the point where the faith is massively gaining power. It would be a massive problem if her marriage partner follows the 7, until such time as Tyrion dies (not gonna happen anytime soon) or the marriage gets annulled.

The Faith can go take a flying leap, they're in King's Landing and Sansa's in the Vale. There's no indication the High Septon and the zealots of his false southron gods (:)) has any power apart from King's Landing and the Crown lands.

That's assuming that 'sworn before a septon' counts if you don't consummate the marriage.

[Wouter]

The Faith can go take a flying leap, they're in King's Landing and Sansa's in the Vale. There's no indication the High Septon and the zealots of his false southron gods (:)) has any power apart from King's Landing and the Crown lands.

That's assuming that 'sworn before a septon' counts if you don't consummate the marriage.

Yes it counts, unless it is set aside by the High Septon or a "council of faith" (straight from a Martin answer).

You're mistaken about the faith though; the Vale is in "the south" (as in, south of The Neck) and the population and most of the lords follow the faith of the 7. Likewise, most people in the Riverlands, in the westerlands, in the Reach, the Storm Lands and Dorne also follow the 7, as do some northmen (mostly White Harbour). The High Septon may have most of his sword in the KL area now, but the faith is strong all over the southern half of Westeros. If he makes a public announcement against Sansa, that could be as serious a problem for Sansa in the Vale as it would be for Margaery in Kings Landing (if he would make an announcement denouncing her).

[kg1982]

It seems like the Stark children were exposed to both religions as well. Sansa herself likes the Faith more than the old gods. So you are right there. However, consummating the marriage is essential for it to be legally binding. Tywin was demanding that the marriage between Sansa and Tyrion was consummated so that after the Red Wedding, the Lannisters could seize Winterfell using Sansa as their pawn. If it wasn't, then another party, the Tyrells, could have helped Sansa get an annulment based on the fact that she and Tyrion never had sex and used her as their pawn.

That being said Sansa and fakeAegon isn't going to happen. It seems like Arianne is going to try to seduce him and I could see that happening, especially since fakeAegon isn't following Jon's advice anymore. I do think that Sansa ends up with Willas at the end and that it is partially a political match, but Sansa is the one who suggests it to Jon and Dany.

[menino]

Seriously? One of the biggest annoyances of the series is how many bloody Lannisters there are. In the main family alone, outside Tywin's git, you have all of Kevan's children (Lancel, two girls, and the surviving twin), Genna's two grandsons and surviving two songs, Tyrek -- if he's alive somewhere, and Joy Hill. Then you have all of the freaking cousins like Daven, et al. I see Tywin's line ending, but house Lannistar is not going anywhere.

Did you read what I wrote? Genna's sons legally are Freys, not Lannisters. Kevan's surviving twin would be the only one in line then. The others are not Lannisters in the eyes of the law.

It would pass to the cadet Lannisport house, not the Rock house, assuming Lancel or the twin can't marry and procreate. So yes, Lannisters, but not the ones that had been ruling the Rock for all those centuries.

[menino]

Two things:-

Varys wasn't alone with Kevan in that room.

Oh? So he's lying for the street children's benefit

[Wouter]

Did you read what I wrote? Genna's sons legally are Freys, not Lannisters. Kevan's surviving twin would be the only one in line then. The others are not Lannisters in the eyes of the law.

That doesn't matter, Frey or not they would be in the line of succession after Kevan's sons and daughters.

As things stand, Cersei is lady of Casterly Rock (Tyrion having been disinherited, however Dany or Aegon could reinstate him no problem). Tommen and Myrcella are her heirs, but Tommen would probably not combine being king with holding Casterly Rock so it would go to Myrcella and Trystane (the children would get the Lannister name rather than Martell, in that case). If both Tommen and Myrcella die, Lancel would be next, then the surviving one from the twins, then Kevans daughters, then Tyrek, then Genna's sons and then Genna's daughters. If need be, Joy Hill could also be legitimised and then there are the various cousins like Damen and Damion. Plenty of Lannisters to go around...

And yes, Varys was likely lying to his own underlings (not street children though, they're the kids who have their tongues removed).

[menino]

That doesn't matter, Frey or not they would be in the line of succession after Kevan's sons and daughters.

As things stand, Cersei is lady of Casterly Rock (Tyrion having been disinherited, however Dany or Aegon could reinstate him no problem). Tommen and Myrcella are her heirs, but Tommen would probably not combine being king with holding Casterly Rock so it would go to Myrcella and Trystane (the children would get the Lannister name rather than Martell, in that case). If both Tommen and Myrcella die, Lancel would be next, then the surviving one from the twins, then Kevans daughters, then Tyrek, then Genna's sons and then Genna's daughters. If need be, Joy Hill could also be legitimised and then there are the various cousins like Damen and Damion. Plenty of Lannisters to go around...

And yes, Varys was likely lying to his own underlings (not street children though, they're the kids who have their tongues removed).

How would Trystane have the Lannister name? Where is the precedent for that in anything that GRRM has written?

Again, Genna has Frey children, not Lannister. The Lannister line would be extinct unless a male heir took it up.

[Alexia]

How would Trystane have the Lannister name? Where is the precedent for that in anything that GRRM has written?

Again, Genna has Frey children, not Lannister. The Lannister line would be extinct unless a male heir took it up.

Tanda Stokeworth and her daughters. Lady Mormont and her daughters. Trystane would probably not take the Lannister name himself, but his children by Myrcella would. Lannister is as much a title as it is a name.

[Wouter]

How would Trystane have the Lannister name? Where is the precedent for that in anything that GRRM has written?

Again, Genna has Frey children, not Lannister. The Lannister line would be extinct unless a male heir took it up.

Not Trystane, his children with Myrcella. They would take the Lannister name to make them more acceptable for the westerlands.

The Stark line has run for 1000s of years, but that won't have happened every time with male heirs. Sometimes, female heirs will have married men who allowed their children to take the Stark name, exactly because the dynasty is so important. Should Rickon and Bran die, Sansa inherit the north, chances are her children would be called Starks, with approval of her husband (be it Tyrion or someone else).

If Dany marries someone in Westeros (other than Aegon), watch their children take the Targaryen name as well.

The Lannister line is hardly extinct anyway, there are plenty of Lannisters around.

[TheEvilKing]

Anyone going to post a more in-depth chapter summary? Come on, I know some of you took notes.

[Queen Sansa]

IMO, Varys captured Tyrek Lannister on the day of the riots and is withholding him so that he can inherit Casterly Rock at some point, and then be Varys's pawn there.

[Alexia]

IMO, Varys captured Tyrek Lannister on the day of the riots and is withholding him so that he can inherit Casterly Rock at some point, and then be Varys's pawn there.

I tend to agree with this, and I suspect he also meant to snatch Sansa at the same time.

[Été]

I tend to agree with this, and I suspect he also meant to snatch Sansa at the same time.

Agreed. The riot happened before her marriage to Tyrion, and things hadn't yet gone to hell in a handbasket in the North; I think Varys intended to marry her to Aegon. He didn't expect Dany to come back from the Dothraki Sea.

[Alexia]

Agreed. The riot happened before her marriage to Tyrion, and things hadn't yet gone to hell in a handbasket in the North; I think Varys intended to marry her to Aegon. He didn't expect Dany to come back from the Dothraki Sea.

Heh, that is an excellent theory. I thought he was just trying to get his hands on a Stark hostage/heir, but I do think you may have hit on it.

[Faint]

I think Varys was simply collecting heirs, not necessarily to marry any of them to "Aegon" so much as to have hand-picked puppets to rule over various regions (i.e., Westerlands, the North). But even here we see that Varys is not infallible. He probably has no clue that Rickon is still alive, much less Bran. The same applies to Littlefinger as well. All his stratagems involving Sansa will be rendered useless if Davos is successful. As it is, and I've expressed this thought several times now, I think events in general are overtaking both Littlefinger and Varys and their influence, considerable as it has been through the series, will begin to wane into nothingness soon. Quite frankly, they've simply hitched their wagons to the wrong horses, and oddly enough, Melisandre, Quaithe, and Moqurro are in much better positions to influence future events long-term.

[skins7778]

This whole stormlands warfront is a mystery to me I really have no idea what's going on. We really have no idea how big Conningtons forces are or what southern bannerman came to his aid. How does the army take Storms End from Stannis's control. Then there is their opposistion, I assume that's Randyll Tarley heading South to meet him but we don't know for sure. Everyone is also forgetting that Garlan is a little busy defending the Reach from the Ironborn so who's to stop Connington from attacking Highgarden if he gets support from Dorne.

My questions for you guys are how big of a force does Aegon/Connington have with and without Dorne/loyal southern bannermen.

[Kingslayer]

My questions for you guys are how big of a force does Aegon/Connington have with and without Dorne/loyal southern bannermen.

Ten thousand men in the Golden Company. Thirty thousand Dornishmen. Probably a few hundred conscripts each from the smaller castles they've already seized (Griffin's Roost, Greenstone, etc). Maybe five thousand or so from the lands sworn directly to Storm's End.

Add and subtract as desired. :) The X-factor here, of course, is the question of how many lords from the Reach and stormlands will voluntarily switch sides. Probably many; the mummer's dragon was surrounded by cheering crowds.