[TWoW Spoilers] Arianne I

[oath breaker]

Rhaegar was wrong about the prophecy though. He thought that he was the promised prince but he isn't. & I'm suspecting that he thought that Jon was going to be a girl. He named his son Aegon and his daughter Rhaenys which tells me that he was expecting Jon to be Visenya. Dany might be the one and Rhaegar never anticipated her.

Sure he was wrong about the prophecy when he was alive but unlike the other visions in the house of the undying this one speaks directy to her as if it's still relevant in the presesnt.

Green Grace has to be the harpy btw.

[ARYa_Nym]

Sure he was wrong about the prophecy when he was alive but unlike the other visions in the house of the undying this one speaks directy to her as if it's still relevant in the presesnt.

Green Grace has to be the harpy btw.

I think the "there must be one more" is just a clue of Jon's existence imo.

[HodorSaysHodor]

Yes, and how many of those people with the right coloring have Rhaegar's eyes and Elia's nose? The right coloring is easy, the trick would be finding a boy with the right face. There are alot of people in Westeros that remember what Elia and Rhaegar look like. When they look at Aegon, if they don't see a resemblance to either family, they will start doubting.

But, at the same time... people all over KL, as well as the rest of Westeros, have looked upon the faces of Joffrey, Myrcella and Tommen, and never instantly figured out that they didn't have a drop of Baratheon blood between them? People will see what they want to see.

[The King of Worms]

There is good reason for thinking Aegon is fake but i remember when Dany was in the house of the undying Rhaegar (whilst holding his newborn brat) seemed to look at her and tell her there is one more because the dragon always has 3 heads so im thinking he's real.

I am thinking he is real too.

I think that Varys is "the Mummer" with all his disguises and mummer's tricks and playing people like puppets. And since Varys saved the little dragon aka Young Griff, he is the "mummers dragon". The term does not necessarily imply his bloodline or claim is false.

All this talk about marriage alliances and marching armies... JC and Young Aegon may indeed win the throne quickly through ingenuity and swift action, but their real enemy will be the grey plague. JC's deadly secret. Perhaps the grey plague cuts down little Tommen and a whole host of other players changing the whole face of the story.

Conquering swiftly, the young Aegon rules over a brief peace until the disease rots and ruins him. Sounds like GRRM to me.

[kg1982]

I'm thinking that it is not only the grey plague but also general starvation and the zombie apocalypse. Aegon probably wins because Jon Connington is crafty - there's a pretty good character turnaround for a guy who everyone remembers as a loser and a drunk. He will probably lose because Connington has grey plague.

[Vympel]

Connington has grey scale, not grey plague, doesn't he?

[BoldAsYouPlease]

I wonder if the Tyrells have neglected to throw quite as much of their lot in with the Lannisters as everyone was meant to think. Between Lady Olenna's involvement in Joffery's murder, the conveniently vague and protracted "death" of Loras, and two fishy conquests of Storms End in a row, I'm starting to think that Highgarden has been playing a much longer game than it's seemed.

Maybe get Margaery married to a fourth king? Interesting idea. But what would be in it for Mace Tyrell? Why would he want any different situation than the one he's got now?

[Galen M]

Maybe get Margaery married to a fourth king? Interesting idea. But what would be in it for Mace Tyrell? Why would he want any different situation than the one he's got now?

A certain bitch in lion's clothing

[Biffyc7]

@Alcanis Margery Tyrell seems "Shinier" than Arianne. I say kill the little plump king and get the women to marry for a 4th time.

[BoldAsYouPlease]

A certain bitch in lion's clothing

What can Cersei do, good or bad, to the Tyrells at this point? Assuming she wins her trial by combat, she's still broke, friendless and humiliated. Tywin and Kevan are gone, along with their armies, and Jaime has seemingly removed himself from the Game. House Lannister seems to be in very bad shape at this point. Tommen's kingship depends mostly on the good will and support of his father-in-law, who is now easily the most powerful lord in Westeros.

Why would Mace Tyrell throw away a pliant boy-king under his thumb and the certainty of his grandchildren inheriting the throne to throw in with Aegon? I'm not saying it won't happen, just trying to think of reasons why it would.

[Black Lion]

Why would Mace Tyrell throw away a pliant boy-king under his thumb and the certainty of his grandchildren inheriting the throne to throw in with Aegon? I'm not saying it won't happen, just trying to think of reasons why it would.

Are you sure there is a certainty that Tommen and Margaery's children will sit on the Iron Throne? Tommen is eight. Before he will be able to have kids it will be at least five years. There is a lot of time for various things to happen in the meantime. Things like a Targaryen successor raising a powerful army and trying to win the throne for himself.

The Tyrell-Lannsiter alliance is powerful but Tyrell-Targaryen-Martell alliance is a lot more certain to win the hegemony in the Seven Kingdoms. By marrying Margaery off to Aegon Mace ensures that their kids will sit the throne, barring the Others invasion and Dany's return to Westeros.

Mace could even make an even more convoluted move. As the marriage between Margaery and Tommen is not consummated, he could try to cancel the marriage and install Tommen in the Casterly Rock. Tommen would be the legal heir to Casterly Rock if only Cersei is dead as Jaime is in the Kingsguard. (If Jaime left the Kingsguard, he would be branded as a traitor and stripped of all titles.) Mace could send any of his sons or his bannermen to Casterly Rock to act as the Lord Protector. Then his influence would extend to the Westerlands and his daughter would be the queen. That is a great reason to flip sides.

At this time I believe only two events could prevent this scenario from happening. Aegon may marry Arianne or refuse to marry anyone who is not Dany. Other than that, at the end of TWoW we should have Aegon with Margaery sitting the throne with all of Westeros excluding the North under their rule.

[BoldAsYouPlease]

Are you sure there is a certainty that Tommen and Margaery's children will sit on the Iron Throne?

Nope, just trying to see it from Mace's point of view - Tommen's the pet king he has right now so why trade in for another, older king?

I guess my speculation is kind of getting away from the topic for this thread - I'll knock it off :D

[the Scorpion Knight]

Nope, just trying to see it from Mace's point of view - Tommen's the pet king he has right now so why trade in for another, older king?

I guess my speculation is kind of getting away from the topic for this thread - I'll knock it off :D

not to mention that the martells and tyrells aren't on good terms usually

[Black Lion]

Nope, just trying to see it from Mace's point of view - Tommen's the pet king he has right now so why trade in for another, older king?

I guess my speculation is kind of getting away from the topic for this thread - I'll knock it off :D

Well, I can see your point but as far as I can tell, it is a bit short-sighted. Sure, you have a king in your pocket but you can also lose the war and in the long term lose all influence over the Throne. Whereas you can throw your lot with a returnee king ;) and ensure life-long influence. The cost of flipping sides is none and Aegon would surely welcome the Tyrells who were fighting on the loyalists' side during the Rebellion.

And your speculation is as OT as any post here other than ones relating the contents of the chapter so you don't have to restrain yourself.

[BoldAsYouPlease]

Well, I can see your point but as far as I can tell, it is a bit short-sighted. Sure, you have a king in your pocket but you can also lose the war and in the long term lose all influence over the Throne. Whereas you can throw your lot with a returnee king ;) and ensure life-long influence. The cost of flipping sides is none and Aegon would surely welcome the Tyrells who were fighting on the loyalists' side during the Rebellion.

And your speculation is as OT as any post here other than ones relating the contents of the chapter so you don't have to restrain yourself.

As long as it's OK with the moderators :laugh:

I could see Tyrell allying himself as quickly as possible to Dany if she showed up with a dragon - the history of Aegon's conquest is well known in Westeros and as the saying goes, there's no point in f***ing with the inevitable.

But why throw in with a man whose legitimacy is certain to be doubted, backed only by a gang of sellswords and an exiled minor lord? Granted, the alliance with House Lannister no longer means as much as it used to, but it's still an alliance. Mace Tyrell's grandchildren stand to inherit not only the Iron Throne but Casterly Rock, since neither of Lord Tywin's sons are in the running anymore. What does Aegon bring to the party besides the say-so of Jon Connington? The Golden Company? They're mercenaries, in Westeros based on promises. Mace Tyrell can buy Homeless Harry with more than promises if he wants them.

And Tommen is a sweet, obedient child who can be raised and guided by Margaery and Loras once Cersei is disposed of.

Why, from his point of view, should Mace toss that aside for a young adult who isn't likely to be nearly as meek or willing, who doesn't bring dragons or land or wealth, who would rule as heir to a family in which multiple spouses (and therefore the threat of non-Tyrell heirs to the throne) are a possibility?

EDIT: One possible explanation to my own idle speculation - Cersei somehow manages to harness and control the religious para-military that has turned on her, enabling her to retain control over Tommen and oust Mace Tyrell as Hand...

[Été]

Nope, just trying to see it from Mace's point of view - Tommen's the pet king he has right now so why trade in for another, older king?

From Mace's point of view, it's entirely a question of military superiority: will the Tyrell and Tarly armies be enough to contain the Golden Company and Dorne? The Lannister host is finished and the Boltons/Freys are disintegrating in the north, so Tyrell is the only house loyal to Tommen that is capable of challenging Aegon in the field at this point.

If Mace is confident of destroying Aegon's forces then there's no reason at all for him to abandon Tommen, but if the odds aren't in their favour then the smartest thing to do would be to turn his cloak yet again and broker a deal with Aegon. There's no sense sacrificing his men when he could be currying favour with the new power in the land.

[Faint]

The Lannister host is finished . . .

Is this true though? They're certainly leaderless at the moment but as to their actual host, well, when did they ever lose very many men? I'd think they can still field 35,0000-40,000 men, and I'm being conservative in my estimates, based on their maximum capabilities and taking into account the losses they suffered in the Riverlands.

[Été]

Is this true though? They're certainly leaderless at the moment but as to their actual host, well, when did they ever lose very many men? I'd think they can still field 35,0000-40,000 men, and I'm being conservative in my estimates, based on their maximum capabilities and taking into account the losses they suffered in the Riverlands.

Kevan Lannister says their army is "fast melting away" in the riverlands; I put that down to desertion rather than deaths in combat. The siege of Raventree Hall was left to Jonos Bracken, so what has the Lannister host had to do since the fall of Riverrun?

[tze]

If Mace is confident of destroying Aegon's forces then there's no reason at all for him to abandon Tommen, but if the odds aren't in their favour then the smartest thing to do would be to turn his cloak yet again and broker a deal with Aegon. There's no sense sacrificing his men when he could be currying favour with the new power in the land.

I agree, but even if Aegon allies with Dorne, Dorne + The Golden Company aren't necessarily going to be able to steamroll the Tyrell/Lannister alliance. Unless the Vale joins up with Aegon, I can't see Mace Tyrell (who isn't known for his great tactical skill) deciding that it's worthwhile to abandon Tommen. I mean, the Tyrells have basically won the Game of Thrones---why give that up? Not to mention, I believe that many of the Golden Company's members' families once held lands in the Reach, correct? Lands that they're going to want back in return for supporting Aegon. So it isn't necessarily in Aegon's interest to seek an alliance with Highgarden, since if the Reach lords back him, he'll be in a situation where he'll have to disinherit a bunch of lords that supported him in order to give their lands to their former owners, men of the Golden Company. If Littlefinger seizes this opportunity and throws the Vale's support behind Aegon, offering Sansa Stark as a bride, then Aegon can defeat the Tyrell-Lannister alliance with the Golden Company/Dorne/Vale, parcel out the choice lands of the Reach to his supporters, and seek fealty from the Riverlords/North by marrying Hoster Tully's granddaughter/Eddard Stark's daughter. He'd basically get the allegiance of the Riverlands/North without having to fight.

And even if we don't take into account Aegon's (presumed) Dornish allies' hatred of Highgarden, who's to say that Aegon (willful boy that he is) will be keen on marrying Margarey Tyrell (the only way I can see Mace supporting Aegon, since he's so keen on having his daughter be a queen). Margarey has been married three times, her husbands tend to wind up dead, and she's been publicly accused of being a slut. Why would Aegon want "used goods"? Sansa, however, is a virgin, brings ties to three Great Houses (Houses that do not love the Targaryens), including the North, which Aegon will be unable to win by force of arms (once the Boltons inevitably die), since invading the North during winter is suicide. And the only crime Sansa has been accused of is murdering Joffrey--supposedly a kinsman to the Usurper and the Kingslayer--so maybe Aegon wouldn't see that as a bad thing?

But if thoughtless Arianne gets Aegon to marry her (thus dooming Aegon's chances of allying with another Great House), I can see Littlefinger having her killed to make way for Sansa.

[Été]

I agree, but even if Aegon allies with Dorne, Dorne + The Golden Company aren't necessarily going to be able to steamroll the Tyrell/Lannister alliance. Unless the Vale joins up with Aegon, I can't see Mace Tyrell (who isn't known for his great tactical skill) deciding that it's worthwhile to abandon Tommen.

I'm not arguing that the Tyrells will abandon Tommen; I don't have the information to make that call but that's not to say it isn't out there. We know the Golden Company brought 10,000 men, and we know Quentyn promised Dany 50,000 Dornishmen. Has it been made clear in the text how many men Mace Tyrell and Randyll Tarly command?

And even if we don't take into account Aegon's (presumed) Dornish allies' hatred of Highgarden, who's to say that Aegon (willful boy that he is) will be keen on marrying Margarey Tyrell (the only way I can see Mace supporting Aegon, since he's so keen on having his daughter be a queen). Margarey has been married three times, her husbands tend to wind up dead, and she's been publicly accused of being a slut. Why would Aegon want "used goods"? Sansa, however, is a virgin, brings ties to three Great Houses (Houses that do not love the Targaryens), including the North, which Aegon will be unable to win by force of arms (once the Boltons inevitably die), since invading the North during winter is suicide. And the only crime Sansa has been accused of is murdering Joffrey--supposedly a kinsman to the Usurper and the Kingslayer--so maybe Aegon wouldn't see that as a bad thing?

That depends on how much Aegon takes Dornish support for granted. Doran may not be choosy about which Targaryen he supports, and with the Dany/Quentyn and Arianne/Viserys matches nixed, he may be prepared to throw Arianne at Aegon to seal Dorne's position.

Why would Aegon marry Margaery? So that he doesn't have to fight the hosts of the Reach. A bigger problem might be securing the annulment of her marriage to Tommen.

Sansa might not be a bad choice. The North is a mess, but Aegon is fighting the Boltons as well as the Lannisters, so declaration of Stark overlordship (though he's in no position to enforce it at this point) would help him gather support among northmen. Same goes for the Riverlands, since Sansa is next in line for the time being.

Unfortunately, Sansa is also married, and the High Sparrow will try her for treason and regicide before dissolving her marriage to Tyrion. She's also under the control of LF, who would have to sacrifice all his work in the Vale for Aegon's cause - the Vale lords might have entered the war on Ned and Robert's behalf, but they have no loyalty to Aegon Targaryen. He's going to spend serious time finding Aegon's levers before offering Sansa to him.