[TWoW Spoilers] Arianne I

[the Scorpion Knight]

Littlefinger does not want to marry Sansa to Aegon; he wants to marry her himself, as his proposal to Cersei and his entire behaviour with her shows.

If LF is genuine about his plan to marry her to Harry, then this is only with the ultimate aim of arranging an accident for Harry once Sansa births a heir.

There is no way he is going to do something similar with Aegon though, not with Varys and Illyrio watching. He just doesn't have the means to manipulate events that he has in the Vale, which is LF's own turf.

I doubt HIGHLY That LF will live to see that arragment.

Moreover, it is questionable if Sansa would want to marry a Targaryen considering what she has been told about the war, and equally questionable if Aegon would want to marry a daughter of Eddard Stark - especially with Jon Connington being his mentor, the man not exactly having fond memories of Eddard. Especially considering Aegon wouldn't even see her beforehand - there is a chance he will fall for Arianne and disregard Connington's advice because he wants to marry her (and he may estimate Dany isn't coming), but with Sansa being many leagues off there is no chance Aegon would be smitten enough with her to throw Connington's advice overboard.

I think Aeg and JC will leave KL as their cherry for their cake and start seeking an alliance with the north and the riverlands.

maybe they'll hear whats happening in the north and start looking for an Alliance( assuming stannis side won but stannis is dead).

maybe sansas hand will be part of the arrangment

Even if LF could and would arrange it, he would not control the kingdom. Varys would see to it that Sansa would be brought under their control, not the other way round (Aegon being brought under LF's control). There are signs that Aegon isn't that willing to be a puppet on a string for anyone, anyway. If he would happen to like Sansa and she would come to like him, Sansa would not be tied to LF at all anymore as she would get a power base of her own as Aegon's beloved wife.

If Varys would want Sansa as bride for Aegon (and I think both Varys and Connington will aim for Dany until it is "mathematically impossibly"), he would rather want her kidnapped out of the Vale rather than have LF being involved, I suspect.

LF is also likely to be aware of Dany and her dragons, and it would be prudent to not make a big move until he has a good idea what she is going to do. The dragons will always win out in the end, so being on the same side as Dany (or at least not being viewed as an enemy by her) is essential should she ever come to Westeros.

I agree but

I think after the marriage the first persons to die will be Varys and LF,

I doubt sansa and aegon want stay Their puppets after what happend

As for the younger queen, don't count out Margaery. She has done tons of damage to Cersei, has taken Joffrey and seems in the process of taking Tommen. If it is Dany, she will have to hurry up or there is nothing left for her to take. Sansa also isn't exactly in a position to do much about Cersei right now.

Who took and takes everything Cersei holdes dear?

Who started the plot and was part of tit to remove joffrey?

Who is the reason Jaime is moving away from cersei?

Whom saw Cersei during her walk of shame?

sadly the answer to all of them is Sansa

Margerey did surfacial damage to Cercei.

Sansa unknowingly hit her where it hurts most.

[ARYa_Nym]

In Connington's chapter it was mentioned that the Freys and the Boltons are a treacherous bunch. I've been saying that those two need to go first before anyone who isn't a Lannister wants an alliance with the North and the Riverlands. It's unclear whether or not Ramsay is still residing in Winterfell. Regaining the North for Rickon will be easier than the Tullys trying to win back the Riverlands imo. Also, I don't think Stannis is dead and he's going to be breathing down the Northmen's neck until they find a way to get rid of him.

[tozka]

Who took and takes everything Cersei holdes dear?

Not Sansa, Sansa has not done anything to Cersei.

Who started the plot and was part of tit to remove joffrey?

Littlefinger, Olenna Tyrell and possibly Margeary but not Sansa.

Who is the reason Jaime is moving away from cersei?

Cersei herself, Brienne, the Goat (Vargo Hoat or smth) when he chopped Jaime's hand, hack even Catelyn had more influence on Jaime's transformation (her oaths) than Sansa.

Who saw Cersei during her walk of shame?

Most certainly not Sansa, Margeary was probably there so she likely saw it. And it was result of Margeary and Cersei's bickering that saw them both imprisoned.

[the Scorpion Knight]

Who took and takes everything Cersei holdes dear?

Not Sansa, Sansa has not done anything to Cersei.

what has Margerey to do with the disappearence of jaime

Who started the plot and was part of tit to remove joffrey?

Littlefinger, Olenna Tyrell and possibly Margeary but not Sansa.

It was an option till Sansa told Olenna joff's true colours ans SHE smuggeled un knowingly the poison into Court

Who is the reason Jaime is moving away from cersei?

Cersei herself, Brienne, the Goat (Vargo Hoat or smth) when he chopped Jaime's hand, hack even Catelyn had more influence on Jaime's transformation (her oaths) than Sansa.

Ask Jaime why he is that hell of a ride and he'll be answering Sansa

Who saw Cersei during her walk of shame?

Most certainly not Sansa, Margeary was probably there so she likely saw it. And it was result of Margeary and Cersei's bickering that saw them both imprisoned.

A typo on my side sry I corrected that I meant whom saw Cersei in her walk and felt terribly sorry for what he did her'? Sansa

[CrypticWeirwood]

Who saw Cersei during her walk of shame? Most certainly not Sansa, Margeary was probably there so she likely saw it. And it was result of Margeary and Cersei's bickering that saw them both imprisoned.

A typo on my side sry I corrected that I meant whom saw Cersei in her walk and felt terribly sorry for what he did her'?

I can't imagine what you think was a typo. You cannot use whom there. It causes a complete parsing failure.

The question is “Who saw Cersei?”, not “Whom did Cersei see?” You need a subject for the verb saw; who is a subject but whom is an object. Use who when you would use he or she; use whom when you would use him or her.

[the Scorpion Knight]

I can't imagine what you think was a typo. You cannot use whom there. It causes a complete parsing failure.

The question is “Who saw Cersei?”, not “Whom did Cersei see?” You need a subject for the verb saw; who is a subject but whom is an object. Use who when you would use he or she; use whom when you would use him or her.

my fault. I messed grammar in my head. sorry

[Raksha the Demon]

Littlefinger does not want to marry Sansa to Aegon; he wants to marry her himself, as his proposal to Cersei and his entire behaviour with her shows.

If LF is genuine about his plan to marry her to Harry, then this is only with the ultimate aim of arranging an accident for Harry once Sansa births a heir.

There is no way he is going to do something similar with Aegon though, not with Varys and Illyrio watching. He just doesn't have the means to manipulate events that he has in the Vale, which is LF's own turf.

Moreover, it is questionable if Sansa would want to marry a Targaryen considering what she has been told about the war, and equally questionable if Aegon would want to marry a daughter of Eddard Stark - especially with Jon Connington being his mentor, the man not exactly having fond memories of Eddard. Especially considering Aegon wouldn't even see her beforehand - there is a chance he will fall for Arianne and disregard Connington's advice because he wants to marry her (and he may estimate Dany isn't coming), but with Sansa being many leagues off there is no chance Aegon would be smitten enough with her to throw Connington's advice overboard.

Even if LF could and would arrange it, he would not control the kingdom. Varys would see to it that Sansa would be brought under their control, not the other way round (Aegon being brought under LF's control). There are signs that Aegon isn't that willing to be a puppet on a string for anyone, anyway. If he would happen to like Sansa and she would come to like him, Sansa would not be tied to LF at all anymore as she would get a power base of her own as Aegon's beloved wife.

If Varys would want Sansa as bride for Aegon (and I think both Varys and Connington will aim for Dany until it is "mathematically impossibly"), he would rather want her kidnapped out of the Vale rather than have LF being involved, I suspect.

LF is also likely to be aware of Dany and her dragons, and it would be prudent to not make a big move until he has a good idea what she is going to do. The dragons will always win out in the end, so being on the same side as Dany (or at least not being viewed as an enemy by her) is essential should she ever come to Westeros.

As for the younger queen, don't count out Margaery. She has done tons of damage to Cersei, has taken Joffrey and seems in the process of taking Tommen. If it is Dany, she will have to hurry up or there is nothing left for her to take. Sansa also isn't exactly in a position to do much about Cersei right now.

I don't see Margaery as a threat to Tommen - yet. She has tried to help the rather isolated child have a better life, have him go riding with her and her maids, which he would enjoy, have him go with her into King's Landing (which would be good for him, in terms of seeing somewhere else than the palace, and let his people see him in a positive light), I think she recommended that Tommen attend a council meeting, but am not sure about that. Margaery is also a smart girl; during AFFC, her destiny was tied to Tommen's, she wanted to see him grow up healthy and also gain some kingly experience and popularity (which he wasn't doing while tied to Cersei's apronstrings).

But...if the tides of war and politics bring the new DragonBoy into King's Landing at the head of a victorious Connington/Dorne/Tyrell alliance, Margaery will bow her head, and either slip some poison into Tommen's food (or onto his kittens' fur) or usher an assassin into the kid's presence, as per Daddy and Olenna's instructions. Then she'll weep for a few minutes and then present herself as a still-virgin and very pretty young bride for Aegon.

I definitely agree that Littlefinger is not going to want to marry Sansa off to DragonBoy. If he were to marry her off to anyone other than an heir to the Eyrie, he will lose control of the Eyrie and the Vale. SweetRobin will not live to adulthood, at least in Littlefinger's opinion; even if he weren't drugging the kid, little Robert is physically frail and stunted and has an unattractive and extremely immature character (which could be improved, but LF is not going to invest in remedial child education except with a whip). Right now, Littlefinger holds power only because Jon Arryn's heir is a child. And Littlefinger wouldn't go the Tyrell route of tying Robert to a pretty girl under LF's control (i.e. Sansa) because it's simply very unlikely that little Robert would live long enough to even look like he could sire an heir. Far better for Littlefinger, if he wants to keep the Eyrie and Vale, to marry Sansa to the next heir, Harry, who is strong and virile and can sire a child or two on Sansa in the next five years, then meet with a tragic accident; so that Littlefinger can step in and console and marry the grieving widow and protect the new young heirs to the Vale. Poor Robert Arryn will be long dead by then if Littlefinger's plans come to fruition.

There's also the prospect, at least as of AFFC, of Winterfell, as a possibly attainable plum for Winterfell, through Sansa. Even if his plans for the Vale fall through, Littlefinger could still end up lord of Winterfell by marrying the oldest surviving child of Eddard Stark; especially if the Boltons self-destruct through a father-son fallout. (Littlefinger, like most of Westeros except for Manderly, believed Bran and Rickon definitively dead) It would be the final psychological victory for Littlefinger to not only reclaim a young version of Catelyn, who he believes was his lover and should have been his wife, but to take the domain of the lords who beat him and took Catelyn away from him (Brandon and Ned).

But if Littlefinger hands Sansa over to DragonBoy as a Stark bride, then Littlefinger is left with a sickly stepson as his only justification for power in the Eyrie and Vale. And he loses control of Sansa, any claim to Winterfell, and his only chance to rewrite his devastating youthful loss of Catelyn (which is psychologically huge for Littlefinger).

I definitely don't see DragonBoy on the Iron Throne at the end of the series; unless everyone else has left King's Landing and the Others are sweeping into the city....

I think DragonBoy is either an unwitting imposter, i.e. not the real Aegon, and will be exposed, after some initial success in his bid for power in Westeros, and then killed, or, even more interesting, be revealed (to the reader, by Illyrio) as the unknowing son of Illyrio and Serra and become a rather promising young leader and then die on the brink of victory either by assasination or in battle, or get greyscale from his beloved foster-father. Or he could turn out to be the real Aegon and be killed.

[Kadence]

Littlefinger does not want to marry Sansa to Aegon; he wants to marry her himself,

Except this isn't really possible. If anything he'd plan to have an affair. LF knows he can't be King, but perhaps if he can make Sansa queen (presumably the original plan was Harry's Queen) he can perhaps seduce her and father the heir. Now that's a bold plan but LF is bold. But anyway that's totally speculative.

Littlefinger is not stupid and won't reach for things he can't have. He's going to get people to follow him by using Sansa as his trump card - her ties with the North, the Tullys and the Vale make her invaluable - but if he marries her he blows this. The Lords wouldn't accept that and LF is too smart to be ignorant of that. He needs puppet leaders, he can't rule in his own name.

If LF is genuine about his plan to marry her to Harry, then this is only with the ultimate aim of arranging an accident for Harry once Sansa births a heir.

Extremely speculative. I don't see any basis to believe this. Too risky and doesn't seem like LF's style whatsoever.

Moreover, it is questionable if Sansa would want to marry a Targaryen considering what she has been told about the war, and equally questionable if Aegon would want to marry a daughter of Eddard Stark - especially with Jon Connington being his mentor, the man not exactly having fond memories of Eddard.

These things are pretty clearly meaningless. Obviously you need strong allies to win a war. If they refused alliance with former enemies they are all hopeless and friendless. Both would probably refuse alliance with Lannisters (and Sansa with Freys), but everyone else is a possible ally.

there is a chance he will fall for Arianne and disregard Connington's advice because he wants to marry her (and he may estimate Dany isn't coming),

Pretty doubtful, and he can always have sex with her without marrying her. Connington would surely tell YG how marrying Arianne is essentially losing the war. Who knows if Arianne would even try for this. He's her nephew and she has to know they need allies too, and Aegon's hand is their most valuable asset - what is the point of being her nephew's queen if they are bound to lose? And this is basically assuming Doran will die - he's not dead yet.

Even if LF could and would arrange it, he would not control the kingdom. Varys would see to it that Sansa would be brought under their control, not the other way round (Aegon being brought under LF's control).

LF knows nothing yet about Varys, and why should he care? If anything he'd view being on the same side as Varys as a big plus - better Varys as friend than enemy. Varys clearly wants something with Aegon other than control (most likely Aegon is family to Varys) - because he has zero influence over Aegon. LF would be the one to have direct influence over YG as YG's most powerful supporter. Aegon has probably not even met Varys since he was a child. And Connington hates Varys. YG's is Connington's puppet, not Varys'. Varys seems to have motives other than power.

Sansa would not be tied to LF at all anymore as she would get a power base of her own as Aegon's beloved wife.

Yes and this might be where LF becomes undone. But remember right now she hero worships LF anyway so she might not rebel, who knows. The character arc for LF might be to be brought down by Sansa, or perhaps Tyrion, or perhaps both; we don't really know where LF's arc is going other than him being set up to be a kingmaker/queenmaker.

If Varys would want Sansa as bride for Aegon (and I think both Varys and Connington will aim for Dany until it is "mathematically impossibly"), he would rather want her kidnapped out of the Vale rather than have LF being involved, I suspect.

Definitely not. Sansa's entire value is that she brings Littlefinger as an ally. Without LF she isn't worth much. LF is the key here, not Sansa. An alliance with Littlefinger would be Varys' best case scenario - The GC+Dorne+Littlefinger=almost certain victory. Littlefinger brings the Vale, one of the two most powerful armies in the realm, and probably half the Riverlands lords too with Sansa's Tully ties and LF being nominal Lord Paramount.

Varys would definitely want LF as ally. This Varys/LF mortal enemies stuff is a fiction that seems to be based on the TV series. They aren't enemies, they are pragmatists who will work together if it suits their purposes. And their objectives seem to coincide nicely here - both can attain everything they want.

LF is also likely to be aware of Dany and her dragons, and it would be prudent to not make a big move until he has a good idea what she is going to do.

Again, news about Dany's marriage will inevitably reach Westeros and people will have to shift their plans. Connington and LF aren't going to sit around waiting for Dany when she has seemingly set Meereen as her long term goal by marrying a local. Also they might hear rumors she's dead. Dany will be viewed as off the Westeros board for now.

The dragons will always win out in the end, so being on the same side as Dany (or at least not being viewed as an enemy by her) is essential should she ever come to Westeros.

We know as readers that if Dany and YG come into conflict, Dany as the more important character will win.

But from a character perspective this is not so at all. Her dragons aren't Balerion. And if YG can unite 6 of 7 kingdoms (excluding the North which should be Stannis'), Dany is the logical underdog from the perspective of a character. She'd be invading with a foreign army, and trying to usurp her "nephew's" claim. Aegon at this point could probably field an army of 80,000-100,000+. Militarily Aegon is the clear favorite there.

Again we know as readers Dany will probably expose Aegon's identity, gain allies and such, but Connington and Littlefinger cannot know this - they haven't seen any prophetic visions. From their perspective they can defeat Dany even if she turns against them. But at this point she's a total wildcard to them anyway.

As for the younger queen, don't count out Margaery. She has done tons of damage to Cersei, has taken Joffrey and seems in the process of taking Tommen. If it is Dany, she will have to hurry up or there is nothing left for her to take. Sansa also isn't exactly in a position to do much about Cersei right now.

Well of course Sansa isn't in any position right now, but we know she isn't staying as LF's bastard daughter. Margaery is possible but I really doubt it, that does not seem like the logical story arc at all. Dany and Sansa seem like the two most realistic candidates by a large margin.

In terms of plot logic Sansa makes the most sense because it seems to totally fit what we know of Littlefinger, but the literary parallels that Martin has been making between Dany and Cersei give Dany a good shot as well.

[Eggplant Wizard]

Who knows what's really going on inside of LF's head. I can't figure out how or why he went from being such a force to receding into the shadows the way that he did.

[ARYa_Nym]

The Younger Queen prophecy might be self-fulfilling. Renly already tried to replace Cersei with Margaery. The logical thing for Cersei to have done was to make the Tyrells an ally when they came to KL but she made them an enemy. Margaery can be the younger queen precisely because Cersei thinks she is and makes it so.

& Jaime left Cersei to die of his own accord. Stoneheart and Brienne may have him now but he was lost to Cersei because of Cersei herself.

The quickest way for YG to gain the throne would be for the Tyrells to switch again and back him. They already basically control KL. I don't see this happening though. Arianne is going to him first. Doran is probably hoping to sit and wait for Quentyn but if Arianne marries YG he will have to act. Doran has no reason to believe that YG isn't a pretender. He is probably already suspicious.

[Kadence]

Then she'll weep for a few minutes and then present herself as a still-virgin and very pretty young bride for Aegon.

This won't happen. There is no way any King would be willing to marry Margaery if she or the Tyrells betray Tommen. The only way YG+Margaery is possible is if Tommen dies on his own.

If he were to marry her off to anyone other than an heir to the Eyrie, he will lose control of the Eyrie and the Vale. SweetRobin will not live to adulthood

But he wouldn't lose control of the Vale. He's Lord Protector until Sweetrobin reaches maturity. And LF could probably make sure Sweetrobin lived to the end of the war (with Vale+Dorne+GC all on one side it's probably a very short war) - living to adulthood is irrelevant. And even afterwards, it is likely Harry would be his puppet. He'd likely arrange a very good marriage for Harry and such - remember at this point Harry thinks he's marrying some bastard girl, LF can get him a much better match and make him happy. LF will maintain his allies in the Vale - he's a master at alliance building and tying people's self-interest to his own. Harry seems Robertish, I doubt he'd challenge LF, he'd probably be content with LF running things while he parties.

And he loses control of Sansa

No matter who he marries Sansa to, she will have a power base of her own. It's inevitable. She's his trump card to draw allies together and he has to use her somehow.

I definitely don't see DragonBoy on the Iron Throne at the end of the series

I don't think anybody does, but many guess he'll be sitting it around the end of the next book. That will be hard to do without a Littlefinger alliance - possible, but much harder. And there's no reason for LF to ally with YG unless he marries Sansa.

I think DragonBoy is either an unwitting imposter, i.e. not the real Aegon, and will be exposed, after some initial success in his bid for power in Westeros, and then killed, or, even more interesting, be revealed (to the reader, by Illyrio) as the unknowing son of Illyrio and Serra and become a rather promising young leader and then die on the brink of victory either by assasination or in battle, or get greyscale from his beloved foster-father. Or he could turn out to be the real Aegon and be killed.

He's pretty much definitely not the real Aegon. But that doesn't mean he'll die. He might well die but I think people overestimate the chances of YG dying.

[Kadence]

& Jaime left Cersei to die of his own accord. Stoneheart and Brienne may have him now but he was lost to Cersei because of Cersei herself.

He left because Brienne mentioned Sansa. Now whether this ties into the Maggy prophecy like some theorize, I have no idea. But the case could be made for Sansa symbolically taking Jaime away I suppose. Would be subtle by Martin but he's done stuff like that before, so it's hard to say.

It's not something that I'd use as logic in favor of Sansa being the YQ, but it's something that if she is, you could look back on and say it fit.

Arianne is going to him first. Doran is probably hoping to sit and wait for Quentyn but if Arianne marries YG he will have to act. Doran has no reason to believe that YG isn't a pretender. He is probably already suspicious.

Arianne is not going to marry anyone without Doran's approval - many readers are saying that might happen and I don't know why. She simply is not going to do that. Doran either needs to approve, or be dead.

As for Doran, the pretender suspicious will probably fade once he gets news of Quentyn, and how much Ser Drinkwater hates Dany. Doran wants vengeance. At that point YG is his only option - and given YG's military success he'll look like a pretty good option. Dorne will declare for YG, it's inevitable, whether Doran lives or dies. Marriage is not necessary and Connington already knows to wait for them to come around.

[ARYa_Nym]

Jaime had the chance to go back to Cersei but he told them to burn the letter. Brienne could still save him so I would not say that his end is because of Sansa. Martin might keep him for a dramatic scene with Dany.

[ARYa_Nym]

He left because Brienne mentioned Sansa. Now whether this ties into the Maggy prophecy like some theorize, I have no idea. But the case could be made for Sansa symbolically taking Jaime away I suppose. Would be subtle by Martin but he's done stuff like that before, so it's hard to say.

It's not something that I'd use as logic in favor of Sansa being the YQ, but it's something that if she is, you could look back on and say it fit.

Arianne is not going to marry anyone without Doran's approval - many readers are saying that might happen and I don't know why. She simply is not going to do that. Doran either needs to approve, or be dead.

As for Doran, the pretender suspicious will probably fade once he gets news of Quentyn, and how much Ser Drinkwater hates Dany. Doran wants vengeance. At that point YG is his only option - and given YG's military success he'll look like a pretty good option. Dorne will declare for YG, it's inevitable, whether Doran lives or dies. Marriage is not necessary and Connington already knows to wait for them to come around.

Why not? She already has shown grievances about calling Quentyn king and she knows that Aegon's claim is stronger than Dany. The news of Quentyn will take time. YG might have already married Arianne by this time.

[Kadence]

There is just no chance Arianne marries without Doran's permission. Especially under the context you claim, about grievance with calling her brother king - she's declaring civil war on her brother! She wouldn't do it in any context anyway because an heir marrying without liege's consent is just not done. And Arianne's evolution has to become more like Doran, not Oberyn.

Even Oberyn wouldn't do something like marrying to ally Dorne with someone without Doran's blessing. Doran rules Dorne. Arianne has no official power. The marriage could be entirely pointless if Doran refuses to ally with YG despite the marriage - which is not only possible, but perhaps probable. Arianne might have to launch a coup against her father to solidify the alliance and we know she is no longer seeking that.

As for Arianne marrying YG prior to news of Quentyn's death, there's not really a reasonable scenario for that to happen. Doran wouldn't let it happen without hearing of Quentyn first. Connington wouldn't let it happen without hearing of Dany first. And Arianne isn't going to do it independently of Doran, also we have no reason to believe Arianne actually has any desire to marry her supposed nephew, or that she's not smart enough to realize they need YG to marry into another family for political reasons. Arianne+YG happening before news of Quentyn and Dany goes against everything we know about pretty much everybody.

[ARYa_Nym]

Why would there be civil war? If Dany was to believe that YG was Aegon then she would know that he is the rightful heir not her. They would be next in line should Aegon not have children and is killed.

Now if Arianne marries YG and there is news of Quentyn's death I could see YG rationalizing that Aegon I had 2 wives and 3 dragons so why shouldn't he?

Doran can't not let anything happen if he isn't with Arianne. Catelyn wasn't with Robb to forbid him from marrying Jeyne.

Arianne seducing YG is right with her personality. She has already tried to act independently of Doran. There's no reason to assume that she won't try to do it again.

[Galen M]

Pretty doubtful, and he can always have sex with her without marrying her. Connington would surely tell YG how marrying Arianne is essentially losing the war. Who knows if Arianne would even try for this. He's her nephew and she has to know they need allies too, and Aegon's hand is their most valuable asset - what is the point of being her nephew's queen if they are bound to lose? And this is basically assuming Doran will die - he's not dead yet.

Elia's son would be Arianne's cousin, not nephew.

[Kadence]

Elia's son would be Arianne's cousin, not nephew.

Ah yeah, my mistake, Aegon is her cousin. I was thinking of Dany/Jon :)

Why would there be civil war? If Dany was to believe that YG was Aegon then she would know that he is the rightful heir not her. They would be next in line should Aegon not have children and is killed.

Dany would have travelled across the world on Quentyn's behest with the Iron Throne promise. Surely she wouldn't take this well.

Now if Arianne marries YG and there is news of Quentyn's death I could see YG rationalizing that Aegon I had 2 wives and 3 dragons so why shouldn't he?

That wouldn't go over very well with the house of his first wife, and I can't see anyone who matters agreeing to be his second. This is baseless and illogical.

Doran can't not let anything happen if he isn't with Arianne. Catelyn wasn't with Robb to forbid him from marrying Jeyne.

Robb was Catelyn's sovereign. She was just his mother. Doran is Arianne's lord - and the ruler of Dorne. Arianne has no power.

Arianne seducing YG is right with her personality. She has already tried to act independently of Doran. There's no reason to assume that she won't try to do it again.

But that's totally doesn't fit with her character evolution, and again wouldn't fit with what we know of *any* of these characters, nor with Arianne's actual powers (none). She is nothing but an heir. She commands no swords. She can sign no enforceable treaties.

[ARYa_Nym]

Ah yeah, my mistake, Aegon is her cousin. I was thinking of Dany/Jon :)

Dany would have travelled across the world on Quentyn's behest with the Iron Throne promise. Surely she wouldn't take this well.

That wouldn't go over very well with the house of his first wife, and I can't see anyone who matters agreeing to be his second. This is baseless and illogical.

Robb was Catelyn's sovereign. She was just his mother. Doran is Arianne's lord - and the ruler of Dorne. Arianne has no power.

But that's totally doesn't fit with her character evolution, and again wouldn't fit with what we know of *any* of these characters, nor with Arianne's actual powers (none). She is nothing but an heir. She commands no swords. She can sign no enforceable treaties.

Arianne already tried to act against her lord with her Queenmaking scheme. This time she could try and make herself a Queen. If they marry then Doran has to support his heir. She will get the Sunspears.

Obviously YG isn't going to marry Dany because he is the mummer's dragon and she has to slay the lie. YG and Connington don't know that though so it's irrelevant. But YG seems so convinced that Dany won't deny him so he will get his reality check when she finally makes it to Westeros.

& you don't think Dany would take it well if YG marries Arianne. Dorne is a Targ ally but you think it best for him to marry Sansa? One of the Usurper's Dogs daughters? She will take that well?

Sansa is the one with no army. The North can't support her. Remember that the Young Wolf lost the war. Yes as Jojen said the wolves will return but they need to beat the Boltons first.

She can't offer the Riverlands. It's overrun with Freys and Edmure is a hostage. There is no army that can act there yet either.

Stannis is also with the Northmen. If they declare for Aegon then a war between them can break out before Sansa ever returns North.

Perhaps she could offer the Vale but LF was going to get the Vale's support through a union with Harry. The Vale might not necessarily want to fight for someone who Jon Arryn fought against just for Sansa.

I don't see this playing out. I think she might get the Vale but she will get them to help the North.

Connington also said that the Vale was far away so he discarded it. Sansa needs something better to offer immediately. She's like Quentyn in Mereen at this stage.

[Kadence]

Arianne already tried to act against her lord with her Queenmaking scheme.

And this was before her character decided to become Doran part II after the "Fire and Blood" scene. Her character has obviously changed. I think you may have missed how she acted in Dance.

If they marry then Doran has to support his heir.

No he doesn't.

But YG seems so convinced that Dany won't deny him so he will get his reality check when she finally makes it to Westeros.

He will probably have wed someone long before Dany gets to Westeros.

Dorne is a Targ ally but you think it best for him to marry Sansa? One of the Usurper's Dogs daughters? She will take that well?

She spurned Dorne.

She isn't going to give a damn about Sansa being Ned's daughter. She doesn't hold sins against children. And she will have to ally with some people who fought against her father, or she can't win.

But in any case Connington and Dorne will not care about her opinions on anything. She is off the Westeros board as far as they will be concerned.

Sansa is the one with no army. The North can't support her

The North does not matter, read my post above. Sansa brings the Vale because it will be Littlefinger who is exploiting her for alliance purposes. Sansa isn't going to be the one who logically proposes this match. The Vale is one of the two strongest armies in Westeros.

She can't offer the Riverlands.

Yes she can because of Littlefinger, who is nominal Lord Paramount. LF's problem is that the Riverlords have no loyalty to him but if he is suddenly revealing he has been Sansa's guardian angel and proposing rebellion against the loathed Lannisters, he will rally the Riverlands with absolute ease. Edmure is irrelevant - the Riverlords cannot rally behind him. Sansa will be used to rally the Riverlands by Littlefinger regardless of whether she marries Aegon or Harry or whoever, you can bet on that.

Perhaps she could offer the Vale but LF was going to get the Vale's support through a union with Harry. The Vale might not necessarily want to fight for someone who Jon Arryn fought against just for Sansa.

The Vale will be LF's no matter what happens as long as he has Sansa - he's already winning them over, once he reveals himself as Sansa's protector they will be his entirely. Jon Arryn fighting Aerys means nothing to whether they'd ally with Aegon - it's Lannisters they hate.

Connington also said that the Vale was far away so he discarded it. Sansa needs something better to offer immediately. She's like Quentyn in Mereen at this stage.

Connington obviously wasn't aware of the facts and the situation will change. I don't see why he would refuse Littlefinger if Sansa was offered and Dany is not an option. Sansa is the total opposite of Quentyn - Quentyn had two knights. Sansa will bring with her the biggest army out there. Also one that is perfectly positioned to put King's Landing in a pincer movement.

Even if one doesn't think Sansa+YG is probable (which for the reasons I mention in my posts here, I do think it's probable) it is still very possible. Again - Sansa is literally the 2nd most politically and military valuable bride in the world. Aegon cannot possibly do better than her if Dany is ruled out. And it's also hard to see why Littlefinger wouldn't jump at this opportunity because it makes him the most powerful lord in the realm, for much less risk than he'd face trying to fight a rebellion on his own.

LF is without question planning a rebellion of some kind, he said it outright in Sansa's chapters when talking about unveiling the young wife in her wolf cloak (which would be open declaration of war on the Lannisters)- but avoiding Stannis as king is the entire reason he betrayed Ned and he won't view Dany as a potential ally once news of her marriage comes. His only options are going it alone (in which case he'd have to fight the eventual winner of the Lannister/YG war) or declaring for YG. Allying with YG is easily the most logical move for him and Sansa is his means for this.