Southron Ambitions. Who Is Maester Warlys's Father?

[mbuehner]

What i said was that the best possible marriages would entail bringing allies to your cause.

Which would be people not historically strong in your favor. Or soothing tensions with a marriage.

Perhaps, but it also opens up dangerous problems as Robert's marriage proved. At worst you're just handing over hostages (see Tully, Edmure). What did the Tully's gain from alliance with Stark aside from a burned out Kingdom?

And one critical aspect that hasn't been considered- arms race. All of this seems to have started when Rhaeger married a Martell instead of a Targ per custom. This probably inspired the sudden scramble to find powerful marriage alliances, which was bound to become multi-sided. Its easy enough to tend to your own until all the neighbors are building alliances like an early 20th century Europe, it was probably a matter of time before the explosion. These kinds of things take on a logic of your own, nobody wants to be without a partner when the music starts.

[Jem]

I never said great houses don't marry into their bannermen.

What i said was that the best possible marriages would entail bringing allies to your cause.

Which would be people not historically strong in your favor. Or soothing tensions with a marriage.

Lets look at all the great marriages we've seen applied currently in westeros...Not retro robert rebellion era attempts.

Sansa/Tyrion

Baelish/Arryn

Stark/Frey(attempted)

Sansa/Willas(attempted)

Cersei/Willas(rumored)

Sansa/Arryn(rumored)

Baratheon/Arryn(rumored)

Its the reason why much european royalty wed across kingdom borders, rather than vassals to princes/princess. When they're already supposed to be loyal, why waste such a valuable board piece on them?

Again, as Aerys said to Tywin..."You don't wed your heir to the daughter of your greatest servant".

Now viserys/dany?

Fair game, perhaps for a great lord, ala a Robb or a Margaery.

I agree with you entirely that it makes sense for the Great Houses to marry across borders to make friends out of enemies and to draw allies even closer.

But the fact remains that in Targaryen-era Westeros, this simply did not happen. Or if it did happen it was exceedingly rare and probably not ever between heirs and eldest/only daughters.

[The Frosted King]

Perhaps, but it also opens up dangerous problems as Robert's marriage proved. At worst you're just handing over hostages (see Tully, Edmure). What did the Tully's gain from alliance with Stark aside from a burned out Kingdom?

And one critical aspect that hasn't been considered- arms race. All of this seems to have started when Rhaeger married a Martell instead of a Targ per custom. This probably inspired the sudden scramble to find powerful marriage alliances, which was bound to become multi-sided. Its easy enough to tend to your own until all the neighbors are building alliances like an early 20th century Europe, it was probably a matter of time before the explosion. These kinds of things take on a logic of your own, nobody wants to be without a partner when the music starts.

Rhaegar married Elia because there were no sisters for him to marry, but the Targs had already intermarried with the Martells in the past. So it was customary.

And what Tullys gained were allies that came and pulled their fat from the fire.

The Winterfell Warmachine is the exemplary example of why Great Houses would want to marry other Great houses.

When the Tully's were caught between a rock and a hard place, they couldn't save themselves. Maybe with better leadership they'd have never been routed so cleanly, but it happened.

But when the wolves came down on their behalf, it turned the tide and removed the noose from their neck.

I guess i just don't see how people can say that intermarrying didn't happen between the great houses usually, when we've seen so much of it, rumored and fruition. Especially when the benefits of it are so clear.

If Sansa had married Willas, the Tyrells might not have supported the Lannister war machine against the Starks. Why?

Because any children born from that union would be able to be fostered at Winterfell(second and thirdborn sons) or Riverrun.

Making them veritable heirs to the northern kingdom, should something happen to Robb and his Frey/Westerling.

If Lysa had looked at the map of Westeros, she would've sent a strong host to Robb.

The Tyrells would've had a daughter as queen in the south, and grandchildren as potential heirs to the north.

Arms race?

The reason why Martin didn't have more premiere current couples adjoined from different great houses was because it makes the Story harder to tell.

He had no loose ends.

[Jem]

....

I guess i just don't see how people can say that intermarrying didn't happen between the great houses usually, when we've seen so much of it, rumored and fruition. Especially when the benefits of it are so clear.

...

The reason why Martin didn't have more premiere current couples adjoined from different great houses was because it makes the Story harder to tell.

He had no loose ends.

But inter-marrying didn't happen during the Targaryen rule - that's why I can say it didn't happen! Yes, there would be benefits - but it didn't happen!

You say yourself that Martin didn't do this because it would make the inter-family relationships too complicated. So there you go. It didn't happen.

Obviously you think Martin did this for practical, story-telling reasons. I think there is a deliberate reason for it.

[Ashen Shugar]

For people saying the maesters have no motivation to do this.

We know ravens used to be used but they would just be told where to go and what to say instead of carrying written messages. That's one thing that both makes the maesters indispensable to their lords and also gives them a lot of power(knowledge).

We know that magic can be used for healing which is another chief responsibility of the maester which makes them both indispensable to their lords and gives them a lot of power(control of the health or lack of, of those in power).

I think either one of those on their own would be enough reason for the maesters to work against magic as it reduces their relevancy greatly.

It's very thin but I wonder if Varys is with the maesters, he aint a big fan of magic either. Though I doubt it because of the whole pycelle business.

[mbuehner]

Rhaegar married Elia because there were no sisters for him to marry, but the Targs had already intermarried with the Martells in the past. So it was customary.

Many Targs didn't have sisters to marry, but there were cousins and second counsins and blood related banner houses. I mentioned Rhaegar's odd situation as well- his parents stopped having kids for 16 years after his birth, doubly odd for Targs as this would provide no sisters to marry or brothers in case of tragedy. Then for some reason they had 2 more kids later in life. Odd.

And what Tullys gained were allies that came and pulled their fat from the fire.

If having your land sacked and burned, your lord imprisoned indefinately at Casterly Rock, and your Overlordship of the Riverlands given to the Baelish house equates to saving your bacon, I guess so. Tully's got pulled into a Stark war and the Tullys paid as high a price as anyone. The problem with the Riverlands is they are indefensible.

The Winterfell Warmachine is the exemplary example of why Great Houses would want to marry other Great houses.

When the Tully's were caught between a rock and a hard place, they couldn't save themselves. Maybe with better leadership they'd have never been routed so cleanly, but it happened.

But when the wolves came down on their behalf, it turned the tide and removed the noose from their neck.

What books have you been reading? The Starks PUT them between a rock and a hard place (one the Vale escaped mind you, to their long term benefit), and the Tullys are about as destitute as the Starks now. They lost everything.

I guess i just don't see how people can say that intermarrying didn't happen between the great houses usually, when we've seen so much of it, rumored and fruition. Especially when the benefits of it are so clear.

Didn't happen isn't the same thing as being very rare and untraditional. People do things all the time that aren't to their best benefit on paper, its very common. The Houses are largely based on the English houses circa the War of the Roses, and indeed it was uncommon and a very singular thing for (for instance) a Lancaster to marry a Warwick.

Arms race?

The reason why Martin didn't have more premiere current couples adjoined from different great houses was because it makes the Story harder to tell.

He had no loose ends.

Ah, so where the books differ from your opinion your opinion prevails. That makes for interesting conversation...

[corbon]

I was wondering of the Maesters themselves used to be the major practicioners of magic, perhaps in competition with other groups (eg the pyromancers).

Their main ceremony seems very much like it was originally proof of magically capability and only morphed into anti-magic when they found theselves unable to complete it.

I wonder if they found they had more power, more 'differential' in a knowledge based power base than a magical based power base - after all, perhaps magical ability is largely 'born' whereas knowledge base requires 'training' more. Perhaps.

Just kicking around some ideas at the moment...

[Armstark]

I think the great houses didnt marry among themselves very often because this could lead to one person being the heir to both "kingdoms". Surely that would fuck up the whole powerbalance of the seven kingdoms.

[Ladywhiskers]

If we take Lady Dustin at face value, the maesters were behind the Tully-Stark betrothal.

However, in AGOT (Ch 7, Catelyn II), Catelyn says that she was betrothed to Brandon at age 12. Now I don’t know how old Cat was when she married, but I believe it was significantly older than 12, say 18-20 years old (I am happy to be corrected on that if anyone knows her actual age). Therefore, based on those figures, the maesters’ conspiracy goes back at least 6-8 years before the Rebellion.

I am wondering if Hoster Tully used Petyr Baelish as a ‘beard’ for his daughter. Catelyn Tully would have been a highly sought-after wife and Lord Tully would have to tell folks sooner rather than later that Cat was off the market. Now if he didn’t want to let on that Cat was really betrothed to Brandon Stark, having Petyr on hand would make a good distraction – people would put 2 and 2 together and come up with the understanding that it was Petyr that Cat was betrothed to. Of course Petyr is light years below the Tullys in terms of status, but it was known that Hoster and Petyr’s dad were war buddies, so maybe it could be seen as a favour or payback for a debt owed. And because of Petyr’s low birth, House Tully wouldn’t be worried about retribution from the very minor House Baelish. Hurt feelings could be explained away as a simple misunderstanding.

We know how badly Petyr reacted when Catelyn’s betrothal to Brandon was announced: Petyr challenged Brandon to a duel. Poor Petyr, maybe he was of the understanding that he actually was betrothed to Cat. In any case, Petyr seemed surprised that Catelyn and Brandon were betrothed, and Petyr had lived with the Tullys for a number of years by then, so the engagement must have been very hush-hush.

This makes so much sense! I figured he didn't learn all of his calculating behavior off in the Fingers. If Hoster pulled a stunt like that, it would have opened Petyr's eyes to the way things are really done in his society.

[jarl the climber]

This makes so much sense! I figured he didn't learn all of his calculating behavior off in the Fingers. If Hoster pulled a stunt like that, it would have opened Petyr's eyes to the way things are really done in his society.

Exactly just like you did to Ser Pounce

[History of Westeros]

What about robb tho? being the heir to winterfell he might not be fostered out under usual circumstances--his younger brothers might be more likely candidates--and as you said, bran is only 7, but jon arryn did want his son and heir to be fostered on dragonstone and he is younger than bran. at the time the book opens no one seems to be being fostered anywhere -- at least north of the riverlands. obviously house martell and house yronwood are close, with prince quentyn being fostered by the yronwoods, and sam tarly was fostered by the florents for a short time (or was it the redwynes?). but why do houses stark, tully, arryn, umber, baratheon, manderly, etc have no squires or sons being fostered? it seems that the bond between the noble houses and their bannermen seemed to have broken down-- at least somewhat-- after robert's rebellion.

maybe because of the scheming? i.e. each house has designs on gaining power/betraying their liege lords & breaking their oaths-- so they dont want their kin going from squires to hostages in the case of a betrayal? after the stark-baratheon-tully-arryn alliance called their banners and successfully overthrew the targs it just seems like the noble house became more insulated. just my opinion though.

99% sure it was specifically mentioned that Jon Arryn wanted to foster his son elsewhere because he wanted to curb Lysa's influence on him. Not saying that implies there was no conspiracy, just fyi.

[History of Westeros]

Those marriages seemed to have occured a long time ago - once about 90 years ago and once about 110 years ago - and these seem to be very rare occurances, only twice in however many years. And it is not stated if these people were heirs/heiresses, it is possible that they were only second, third, etc sons and daughters. Certainly these marriages were so obscure and so long ago it was necessary for Ned to search them out.

No, it is true. In Westeros the Great Houses marry to their bannerman. It may be sensible for them to inter-marry with the other Great Houses, but this is exceedingly rare. I would say that it is simply 'not allowed' unless with the express permission of the King, and only then allowed when heirs and eldest daughters are not involved. The Targaryens have only held Westeros for 300 years, I would suggest that they do not want their High Lords ganging up on them, so intermarriage between the Great Houses is very strongly discouraged.

Looking at the marriage pacts that were attempted you have listed:

Lyanna/Robert - Heir to an eldest daughter - naughty, naughty - indication of Stark's 'southron ambitions' and the cause of all these troubles.

Brandon/Catelyn - Again - heir to an eldest daughter - naughty, naughty - indication of Stark's 'southron ambitions' and the cause of all these troubles

Blackfish/Redwyne girl - Redwynes are not a Great House and Blackfish is not the heir, so irrelevant

Elia/Baelor Hightower - Hightowers are not a Great House, so irrelevant

Jaime/Lysa - Based on rumours and 'feelings', never anything close to a real engagement

Edmure/Arriane - Based on Arianne's wishful thinking, nevery anything close to a real engagement

I disagree with the implied notion regarding the Redwynes and Hightowers. Technically yes, they are not Great Houses, but they are say, in the top 15 most powerful, which is the point.

Also, the fact that Lysa/Jamie and others were even considered pretty much proves the point. If it was such a strange thing there wouldn't be so many examples of it happening or potentially happening.

[Jem]

I disagree with the implied notion regarding the Redwynes and Hightowers. Technically yes, they are not Great Houses, but they are say, in the top 15 most powerful, which is the point.

Also, the fact that Lysa/Jamie and others were even considered pretty much proves the point. If it was such a strange thing there wouldn't be so many examples of it happening or potentially happening.

Disagree all you like, but the Redwynes and the Hightowers are NOT Great Houses - Stark, Tully, Arryn, Baratheon, Lannister, Tyrell, Martell. That's it. Sure there are other house that are rich, powerful and influential, but those houses are still the vassels to the above mentioned seven houses, therefore they are NOT considered Great Houses or Paramount Houses or whatever you would like to call them.

Re the Lysa/Jaime thing - it has been theorised that this could be evidence of Tywin's involvement with the whole plot. Aerys elevating Jaime into the Kingsguard was the paranoid Aerys's way of thwarting Tywin's part in the overall plan.

[The Frosted King]

Best agree to disagree.

All these "plots" posters speak of seem to grasp at air to knit into tangible theories are flimsy at best.

The venom of a soiled woman, twice rejected.

What exactly was the overall plan?

[Johnny The Longshanks]

Interesting idea but I'm leaning towards The Citadel being revealed as another player in the game but not the most important player. I don't think it makes sense for the to plot the rebellion, what do they gain in the end?

The most important point in Sam chapters in Oldtown is that the maesters have tried to shun the magical side of the Westerosi lifestyle because that gives them more power. That's their motivation. Similar to the scientific revolution, they will have more power if they are the one with the final say not the religious groups or a King that has magic and dragons and can go right over their heads with any decision. Not a direct quote but its stated roughly that those things don't fit into the world The citadel will have control of and thus wants to build.

Furthermore, the COF say almost that same exact thing to Bran when they're talking about how the giants and unicorns are gone. Makes for an interesting thought, we don't really know whose side the COF are on but it appears they are on the opposite side of The Citadel.

[corbon]

If having your land sacked and burned, your lord imprisoned indefinately at Casterly Rock, and your Overlordship of the Riverlands given to the Baelish house equates to saving your bacon, I guess so. Tully's got pulled into a Stark war and the Tullys paid as high a price as anyone. The problem with the Riverlands is they are indefensible.

Actually the Tully's got pulled into the war because a Tully girl (Catelyn Stark) believed her child, grandson of Hoster Tully, was (attempted) murdered by the Lannisters, being led to that conclusion by the ravings of another Tully girl (Lyssa Arryn) accusing the Lannisters of plots against the throne and the murder of another Tully ally (Jon Arryn).

Catelyn then arrested Tyrion and took him to Lyssa.

Tywin then ordered the ravaging of the Riverlands because people must fear the Lannisters so much they are afraid to call them to account for their crimes and besmirch their honour..

Note how the 'brigands' under Gregor left gutted fish behind them, not gutted wolves.

The Tully's didn't get pulled into a Stark war. The Tully's were intimately involved in it from the start.

[mbuehner]

The Tully's didn't get pulled into a Stark war. The Tully's were intimately involved in it from the start.

In which case they were involved in an interhouse conflict with Lannister. It was the Starks that raised their banners and rebelled against the Iron Throne itself, and later raised a king. Having your sheep raided is a far cry different from having your house divested and handed to a Frey. It was the execution of Ned Stark that raised the North anyway, which was tied up in Lannister incest and had nothing to do with Tully aside from tangentially.

Having your house stripped of lordship is the death penalty in the game of thrones, and it was applied for high treason, not for snatching an imp.

[corbon]

It was the Starks that raised their banners and rebelled against the Iron Throne itself, and later raised a king.

Ahh, no, not initially. It was the Lannisters that started the war, ravaging Tully lands, destroying their people and killing their lords as they tried to defend their own small territories individually. They just didn't do it openly.

But Ned Stark was acting on Baratheon kingly authority (as Hand) when he ordered Beric to bring Gregor to Justice. The Starks didn't raise their banners until the Lannisters murdered the King (Lancel with Strongwine, caused by Ned telling Cersei that her incest was known and he would tell the King) and imprisoned Ned, which happened much later.

Having your sheep raided is a far cry different from having your house divested and handed to a Frey.

The Tullys weren't just having their sheep raided though. Their lands were being systematicaly ravaged, their people butchered and their lesser lords picked off one by one.

It was the execution of Ned Stark that raised the North anyway, which was tied up in Lannister incest and had nothing to do with Tully aside from tangentially.

No, it was the murder of teh King and the declaration of Ned Stark as a traitor (which they knew was false) which raised the North.

Long after the Lannisters had already gone to war against the Tully's.

Having your house stripped of lordship is the death penalty in the game of thrones, and it was applied for high treason, not for snatching an imp.

Sure, thats the end result. You are claiming though that the Tully's were just casualties in a Stark/Lannister war. But it was Catelyn Tully, calling on her fathers bannermen, who arrested Tyrion and Lyssa Tully who pointed her in that direction in the first place. In response the Lannisters actually started military action against the Tully's not the Starks.

The Tullys were intimately involved with the cause of the war starting. More so in many ways than the Starks.

[Lord Tywin's Privy]

Ahh, no, not initially. It was the Lannisters that started the war, ravaging Tully lands, destroying their people and killing their lords as they tried to defend their own small territories individually. They just didn't do it openly.

But Ned Stark was acting on Baratheon kingly authority (as Hand) when he ordered Beric to bring Gregor to Justice. The Starks didn't raise their banners until the Lannisters murdered the King (Lancel with Strongwine, caused by Ned telling Cersei that her incest was known and he would tell the King) and imprisoned Ned, which happened much later.

The Tullys weren't just having their sheep raided though. Their lands were being systematicaly ravaged, their people butchered and their lesser lords picked off one by one.

No, it was the murder of teh King and the declaration of Ned Stark as a traitor (which they knew was false) which raised the North.

Long after the Lannisters had already gone to war against the Tully's.

Sure, thats the end result. You are claiming though that the Tully's were just casualties in a Stark/Lannister war. But it was Catelyn Tully, calling on her fathers bannermen, who arrested Tyrion and Lyssa Tully who pointed her in that direction in the first place. In response the Lannisters actually started military action against the Tully's not the Starks.

The Tullys were intimately involved with the cause of the war starting. More so in many ways than the Starks.

It is mentioned in AGoT (IIRC) that Tywin's (via gregor clegane) ravaging of the riverlands was indeed aploy to draw out Ned Stark out of kings landing and kill him in the field of battle. GRRM says that Jaime didnt get his father's message on time-- attacking Ned in the streets of Kings Landing instead.

However, the well-laid plan of Tywin Lannister to draw Ned Stark into the Riverlands to kill him and his men is something we are told in the course of the story. The fact the Jaime attacked Ned in public before his father could kill him in the field--and thus avoid blame-- was simply a timing error, for which the lannisters did pay. instead of an anonymous death to the Lord of Winterfell, they got a public one, due to Jaime's rashness and his not knowing about his father's plan (and joffrey's madness).

Of course the lannisters still managed to beat the starks through deception and scheming, but theyre hands wouldve seemed much cleaner if gregor clegane, who i'm sure tywin wouldve later claimed was acting on his own behalf, not the lannisters, had killed ned somewhere in the riverlands.

Thus, ned is dead, the lannisters blame gregor and sentence him to death to make sure their tracks are covered, and the north does not rebel against the throne.

Bigtime misunderstanding between lannisters, which is pretty rare, considering they a;lways seem to screw over their enemies in ways that that add to their power and prestige.

Of course the irony being that their house is completely f-d up due to all the scheming and power-snatching. Brother + sister incest, tyrion kills his father, joffrey is murdered by the tyrells (or at least the lady of thorns + petyr). The doom of their house arrises from the very scheming and undercutting that they though would put them in power.

[Ser Leftwich]

First, someone up thread put forth the idea of a maester influencing Tywin Lannister. That seems so far out of character for Tywin as to be absurd.

To the point, bear with me for a moment.

There are several steps to this idea about the Southron Ambitions.

1- When Aegon V ascended, there was a Great Council. We do not know who was on the council, there are many theories, but what we have is a precedent set for someone to just be put on the throne. As to if the Great Houses of the land were consulted, but the possiblity exists. I would like to think that they were, but these ideas do not hinge on the Great Houses being in on the Great Council.

2- There is a quote from A concerning Aegon's children, that has two important sections. Here is the whole quote:

"All three of the sons of the fifth Aegon had wed for love, in defiance of their father’s wishes. And because that unlikely monarch had himself followed his heart when he chose his queen, he allowed his sons to have their way, making bitter enemies where he might have had fast friends. Treason and turmoil followed, as night follows day, ending at Summerhall in sorcery, fire, and grief."

We know from the Dunk & Egg stories that Egg was a good person. We can infer that Aegon/Egg was a good king. The text implies that "treason and turmoil" extends directly from Egg's sons marrying for love instead of marriages arranged by Egg. These marriages would have likely been to families from the Great Houses, but we do not know. We do know that "bitter enemies" were made. These "bitter enemies" could be the heads of Great Houses that did not get marriges or the maesters who are trying to get rid of magic, it works for many theories.

We also know little about who Egg's sons actually married, but we do have the piece that it was Egg that commanded that Aerys and his sister Rhaella be married.

We also have no specifics about what the "treasons and turmoil" were, but Barristan was around for it (as well as others: Blackfish), so we can potentially learn more later.

There is one historical event towards the end of Egg's rule that falls into the category of turmoil, The War of the Ninepenny Kings.

3- Ambitions (The last step is the leap)

Aegon V's rule became increasingly strained over the years: issues with the succession that put Egg on the throne, "bitter enemies," a Blackfyre rebellion, possible problems with the succession after Egg (Duncan the Small giving up his crown for Jenny of Oldstones). The Events at Summerhall might have been because Egg was trying to come up with something that would help solify Targaryen rule, namely a dragon. Things did not work that way.

During the War of the Ninepenny kings, various lords from around Westeros that might not have otherwise interacted might have forged friendships, we have evidence of this with Tully-Baelish situation. For instance, Jon Arryn gets two fosterlings. Deals about later marriages between children are talked about and later made solid. These same Great Houses are still likely nursing the loss of face from not marrying Egg's sons.

This works alongside with various theories of Rhaegar conspiring to remove his father or joining a conspiracy that was started. It also works with the various theories of the maesters conspiring.