[TWoW Spoilers] Theon I, Part 2

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

In AGOT Tywin says that from the beginning he felt that Stannis was a greater danger than all the others combined (before he began to face Robb). From this chapter I can finally see why. Stannis has been regarded as a great battle commander for some time (Storm's End and smashing the Iron fleet and the capture of Great Wyk), but this is the first time he has actually shown it in the present series. I am finally coming around to being satisfied if he wins the iron throne. However, I have two concerns with his plan.

1. Roose Bolton is still in prime position to win. Roose is no fool as he kept the best part of his strength behind the strong walls of Winterfell while dispatching losses he could afford (Troublesome Freys, backstabbing Manderleys and his unwanted bastard). Even if Stannis survives the upcoming attack he still has no way to siege and take Winterfell.

2. Justin Massey does not strike me as a true believer in Stannis' cause. He desires glory and personal gain most of all. That being said, he is not likely to find any good free company left to hire. The Golden Company is busy winning this war for Aegon VI and the rest are all involved in the siege of Meereen in one way or another. That leaves Dany, whom we can safely assume will be the ultimate victor on Essos. Remember that the Masseys are a house from the Crownlands and have served House Targaryen for hundreds of years. Many houses from that region are Targ loyalists still. If Ser Justin gets word that Stannis is dead (or even if he is alive) he may see that the best course is to ally with Dany and negotiate for Shireen to become the Lady of Storm's End and keep the Storm Lands. This would set him up quite nicely and allow him to keep some loyalty to Stannis. No one will rally to Shireen's banner should Stannis fall.

[voodooqueen126]

Just a thought, might be way off track but what makes a King a King?

Isnt Theon the eldest son of Balon and as such (outside of the Ironborn customs of a Kingsmoot) he would be heir and therefore King of the Seastone chair? I only ask as it might be relevant if he dies in some way (hacked onto a Weirwood or burnt to R'hllor) and you then get some serious "sacrifice of a Kingsblood" powers.

Edric Storm was due for the bonfire as he had "Kings blood" without having any actual entitelement to the throne for example.

Hence my desire to see Ramsay Bolton-with a little bit of kings blood, be executed first. Then Bran will be powerful enough (if the sacrifice is done before a weirwood, which seems likely from Asha's arguments in favour)to inform Stannis of Theon's innocence and Rickon and Davos living status (and also inform Stannis of his relinquishing of the title of "Lord of Winterfell" on the grounds of joining a religious life

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Louis_of_Toulouse

Jeyne can't be killed until Rickon is returned - for all intents and purposes she is Arya Stark. It is in nobody's best interests for Arya to die. I wonder whether Alys Karstark could play an important role here? Surely she remembers Sansa and Jeyne from her visits to Winterfell as a child? With Jon dead only she or Theon could disprove "Arya".

I think it would be more dangerous to know that Arya is fake than to be fake Arya.

Well, much as I want Jeyne to be exposed (and thus expose Littlefinger, starting the process for his much needed downfall) it would be awful for her to die.

Not very impressed with Theon for encouraging her to lie.

If Alys Karstark is at the Karhold, then it is likely that Jeyne and Alysanne will stop there on the way to the wall. Since Alys would have likely played with Jeyne, Sansa and Arya, there is hope that she will recognise her.

[slayer420]

why do people keep saying there isnt any good free companys left to hire. We dont know how many there are. The gold company is said to be the best. But there could be alot more that we havent heard of. Look at all the ones that were hanging around slavers bay before dany got there. There was no major war around there. I would think there would be alot more in the disputed lands where war has been going on.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

why do people keep saying there isnt any good free companys left to hire. We dont know how many there are. The gold company is said to be the best. But there could be alot more that we havent heard of. Look at all the ones that were hanging around slavers bay before dany got there. There was no major war around there. I would think there would be alot more in the disputed lands where war has been going on.

In ADWD it is noted that the Wise Masters were hiring every available company to lay siege to Dany. It is also noted the the Wise Masters have gotten insanely rich from the slave trade and can easily afford to hire any and all sellsword companies that they could find. If there are any compny's left, they are likely the scrapings from the bottom of the barrel. Stannis wants at least 20,000 good men to fight in Westeros. I'm just not certain there are enough to be had. Why risk fighting for gold in some foreign land when you have more than enough gold to fight for right there in Essos?

[Stannis the Great]

why do people keep saying there isnt any good free companys left to hire. We dont know how many there are. The gold company is said to be the best. But there could be alot more that we havent heard of. Look at all the ones that were hanging around slavers bay before dany got there. There was no major war around there. I would think there would be alot more in the disputed lands where war has been going on.

There is a major war going on you know. When Dany arrived in Slaver's Bay there were no wars to the scale of what is happening at Meereen as of ADWD.

Massey will probably get a few bravos to join Stannis' cause but he will have to seach far and wide to get some sellsword companies.

[slayer420]

In ADWD it is noted that the Wise Masters were hiring every available company to lay siege to Dany. It is also noted the the Wise Masters have gotten insanely rich from the slave trade and can easily afford to hire any and all sellsword companies that they could find. If there are any compny's left, they are likely the scrapings from the bottom of the barrel. Stannis wants at least 20,000 good men to fight in Westeros. I'm just not certain there are enough to be had. Why risk fighting for gold in some foreign land when you have more than enough gold to fight for right there in Essos?

well if you look at the map Essos is a very big place. I would think there would be a few good comanys hanging around bravos. The north would be closer that traveling to slavers bay. But you could be right.

[NanChan]

What a wonderful present from GRRM this Christmas! :drool: This new chapter and the thread(s) in this forum sent my imagination flying high.

First of all, Hellooooo Stannis! After reading this chapter, I'm now fully convinced that out of all the claimants of the Iron Throne at present (Dany included), Stannis is the most worthy one of'em all.

Since this chapter was most definitely set before Jon received the Pink Letter, Stannis may still die. But after reading the conversation he had with Theon and Justin Massey, it might just be that he himself sent the Pink Letter to Jon, in order to bring him back to Winterfell. Although, Ramsey writing the letter out of sheer desperation seems much more probable, really.

Whichever way it is, The Boltons need to DIE!!! I'll be glad if it is in the hands of Bran/Jon/Theon but if not, after this chapter, Stannis would suffice for me just as gladly.

I'm not sure how Manderly will manage to join his cause with Stannis. Stannis knows that Manderly rejected his alliance and then killed his Hand, Davos. So yeah, it's only natural that he wants him dead and destroyed. Hopefully, Manderly will find some way to convince Stannis and after that, together they'll butcher the Boltons+Freys.

Asha most definitely wants Theon alive, partly 'cause of her love for her sibling and mostly 'cause he is her trump card to challenge and ultimately reject the previous Kingsmoot. I don't think Asha's wanting to bring Theon to the Godswood is under the influence of Bran. Maybe she has some tricks up her sleeves as well. Might be that in that particular event Asha gets killed and Theon hiding somewhere in the Godswood comes in contact with Bran. However, I don't want Asha to die. She's the best suited Iron born to rule over Pyke and the other Iron Islands.

It was great to see Theon coming into his own, slowly. He, ofcourse, can never go back to being his oldself but I sincerely wish he'll be one of those characters who redeems himself in the end. Maybe Theon, by some wacky plot twist, will come face-to-face with Lady Stoneheart and give that poor woman some much needed closure. If Bran doesn't get to him first that is. It is obvious that Bran has some plan involving Theon and the Godswood.

Lastly, there is something strange and spooky about Winterfell's crypts. Yes, Bran and Rickon did hide in the crypts and took some swords with them. But they couldn't have taken 5 or 6 swords with them. Also, if I remember correctly, at the end of ACOK, Bran, through the eyes of Summer, saw a great stone lizard moving amongst the ruins of the crypts. Many believe it to be a sleeping dragon which was awaken after the fire brought Winterfell down. However, like someone posted before me, secret passageways are more likely to exist down there.

This chapter was exciting and brilliant in my opinion. If another sample chapter from TWOW is to be published by July, 2012, it is highly unlikely that TWOW will come out in 2012 or even 2013. But, I'm keeping my fingers crossed for 2014! The long night is coming!!! :drunk:

[Stannis the Great]

Lastly, there is something strange and spooky about Winterfell's crypts. Yes, Bran and Rickon did hide in the crypts and took some swords with them. But they couldn't have taken 5 or 6 swords with them.

Didn't Meera, Jojen, Hodor and Osha also take swords from the crypts? That would mean there were 6 swords taken.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

well if you look at the map Essos is a very big place. I would think there would be a few good comanys hanging around bravos. The north would be closer that traveling to slavers bay. But you could be right.

The are alot of big places in the ASOIAF world (see the North) but that does not mean they are heavily populated. Also think no the politics of invading Westeros. Many of the free cities may not see it as good business.

[Wouter]

@Wouter: woah woah woah! You mean Stannis is actually bending to gain better popularity?!?!

I doubt the point of the chapter will be that Stannis refuses Asha and decides to burn Theon instead - it's very likely he will agree to arrange the execution in a way that would satisfy the northern lords. For that matter, the plan to kill Theon at all is there mostly because Stannis wants to appease the northern lords because he couldn't afford to let the killer of Eddard's sons loose. So yeah, Stannis is bending - to some small degree.

Also, why would Robb's will matter to him? He sees himself as the true King, so whatever some kid wrote of a bastard half-brother can't possibly make him give more fucks in the matter

Robb's will doesn't matter to Stannis personally - but it probably will matter a lot to Jon. For Stannis, this has the potential danger that Jon will rise against him, picking up Robb's discarded crown, or the potential benefit that Robb's blessing will make it easier for him to accept Winterfell from Stannis' hands. Stannis certainly cares about a potential rebellion of northmen against him, and he also cares about having a strong, able and loyal lord in Winterfell (having just found out his designated lord of Winterfell was traitorous scum).

Yet Bloodraven specifically says that he cannot talk to people?

Does he say that? Or did he say that "you cannot talk to people in the past"? I suspect Bloodraven can communicate over long distances just fine, if not by weirwood (which he probably can do anyway, just as Bran seems able to) then by raven.

Jeyne can't be killed until Rickon is returned - for all intents and purposes she is Arya Stark. It is in nobody's best interests for Arya to die.

In the first thread, the idea was put forth that Massey would take "Arya" along to Braavos (having found Jon death, at the Wall) and that the real Arya would then kill Jeyne once there. Some people think this would be an attractive turn of events (Arya killing Jeyne because she impersonated her). I don't, I think it would be terrible for Arya and for her sister if she were to kill Jeyne. I would much prefer for Arya to find out what happened to Jeyne and to take revenge over it.

1. Roose Bolton is still in prime position to win. Roose is no fool as he kept the best part of his strength behind the strong walls of Winterfell while dispatching losses he could afford (Troublesome Freys, backstabbing Manderleys and his unwanted bastard). Even if Stannis survives the upcoming attack he still has no way to siege and take Winterfell.

There are probably some ways: one involving using Manderly (assuming he has turned cloak by this point) as a Trojan horse, a second by using Theon's knowledge of Winterfell to get in (he has experience doing just that), a third by using the crypts as a possible access point (if anyone knows how, Bloodraven probably would).

2. Justin Massey does not strike me as a true believer in Stannis' cause. He desires glory and personal gain most of all. [...] No one will rally to Shireen's banner should Stannis fall.

Massey does not seem to be a die-hard supporter of Stannis nor particularly lord of light-minded, but he did seem overall a rather honorable/reasonable guy from Asha's POV - he desires advancement like most of his peers, but he does not seem to be a complete a**hole in doing so and he treated Asha nicely. Since he was with Stannis from the beginning and did not desert him even at the Blackwater, I think he is quite loyal, though not quite like Davos.

As for Shireen, even Viserys and Dany still kept some very few supporters once Stannis' fleet set sail for Dragonstone. I'm not saying Massey is another Willem Darry, but one never knows.

why do people keep saying there isnt any good free companys left to hire. We dont know how many there are. The gold company is said to be the best. But there could be alot more that we havent heard of. Look at all the ones that were hanging around slavers bay before dany got there.

In the first thread, some people were talking about the second sons, the Windblown (Tattered prince) and even the Golden Company/Aegon joining or allying with Stannis. That obviously isn't going to happen; if Massey does find sellswords (other than Braavosi themselves), they will have to be companies we have never heard of and given the amount of money passing around in slaver's bay (and the GC being occupied), it probably won't be the best material. I don't expect Braavos to aid Stannis openly but they will probably make sure Braavosi sellswords and sellsails can be aqcuired.

[NanChan]

Didn't Meera, Jojen, Hodor and Osha also take swords from the crypts? That would mean there were 6 swords taken.

If I remember correctly, Osha and Hodor were the only ones who took swords from the crypt. Meera has her fork, Jojen doesn't carry any weapon. Neither does Bran and Rickon.

But suppose, even if the 6 swords were taken by Bran and company, I would still say the crypts are spooky.

[Chise]

Robb's will doesn't matter to Stannis personally - but it probably will matter a lot to Jon. For Stannis, this has the potential danger that Jon will rise against him, picking up Robb's discarded crown, or the potential benefit that Robb's blessing will make it easier for him to accept Winterfell from Stannis' hands. Stannis certainly cares about a potential rebellion of northmen against him, and he also cares about having a strong, able and loyal lord in Winterfell (having just found out his designated lord of Winterfell was traitorous scum)

hold up, did I miss a memo about Nights Watch letting people leave? Jon Snow wouldn't shut up about his damn vows and made it repeatedly clear to Stannis that he has no interest in leaving his Commanding or going places south of the Wall in general, and even less interest in anything with a seal Stannis has to offer

Stannis might have bent slightly to recruit the northmen, but something requiring that much effort of long-lost final wills and Stark family issues is not his way. At all

[Wouter]

hold up, did I miss a memo about Nights Watch letting people leave?

Yes, you missed 2, even!

The first memo you missed is that of Stannis, saying he is the King and he damn well does as he pleases, especially if he has way more men than the Watch has. Stannis knew the NW doesn't let people leave and he still extended the offer anyway (and Jon considered it briefly). Robb was also planning on doing the same, by offering 100 men in return for Jon.

The second memo you missed is that stabbing someone to let him bleed to death is kinda like a very strong version of "letting people leave". If/once Jon gets healed/resurrected/whatever, who knows what his feelings will be and what the status of the Watch will be?

[Miryana]

Stannis. It's a shame it feels like he's doomed by Dany's return, because he just keeps on getting more awesome and kingly. The candidate everyone dismissed as too unpopular to rule is the most competent one right now and rocks when he listens to advisors like Davos and Jon.

When/if Stannis and Manderly meet, I hope Manderly has a letter from Davos that explains the bargain they made and convinces Stannis that he opposes the Boltons. Manderly has proven himself so cunning, I can't imagine what logical reason there would be for him to ignore something as simple and useful as asking Davos for a letter as proof, hidden and taken with him when he knows he might meet Stannis.

I'm now even more convinced that the ADWD letter is a desperate lie. GRRM has to start wrapping things up, and a Bolton/Frey defeat in early ADWD would clear the way for the last major conflicts: the Others (finally), the Lannister/Tyrell breakdown, and the Dany/Stannis/Aegon battle for the throne.

[Chise]

The second memo you missed is that stabbing someone to let him bleed to death is kinda like a very strong version of "letting people leave". If/once Jon gets healed/resurrected/whatever, who knows what his feelings will be and what the status of the Watch will be?

Death and Execution aren't exactly "letting people leave" and the neverending arguments of Jon's death and [im]possible resurrection are still goin on. And Stannis hasn't a clue this has went down at the moment [unless my timelines are gettin confused again]

Stannis doing whatever he damn well wants as King has been known. Which is why would he bother to go thru the trouble of finding Robb's letter?!?! He's a damn King and his word is law!! If some stupid lil bastard boy couldn't be persuaded by WORD OF THE KING to sign a damn paper and become Lord of Winterfell, throwing another paper at him (and going thru all the hours and energy and man power to find said paper) is no guarantee either

[voodooqueen126]

Wouter said:

Does he say that? Or did he say that "you cannot talk to people in the past"? I suspect Bloodraven can communicate over long distances just fine, if not by weirwood (which he probably can do anyway, just as Bran seems able to) then by raven.

Only inefficient half sentences via crow it seems(Snow! King! Corn), and dreams to be people who are sensitive or sleeping in weirwood groves... Not very efficient spy network at present

one thing that bothers me, Theon says that Jeyne will have a thousand suitors as Arya, despite her past being trained in a brothel. But why didn't Jeyne say "I want to become a Silent Sister" or something along those lines? Why has this not been mentioned as an option?Or even a regular Septa?

There was one other thing, but I can't remember it.

[Chise]

one thing that bothers me, Theon says that Jeyne will have a thousand suitors as Arya, despite her past being trained in a brothel. But why didn't Jeyne say "I want to become a Silent Sister" or something along those lines? Why has this not been mentioned as an option?Or even a regular Septa?

um.. because when he promises a young girl a happy future married life, he's playing to a young girl's vanity? Anything to make her stop crying & be a good girl playing the part! Nobody thinks of death and celibate nun septa existence as a happy future path? Jeyne herself might not even know anything about those alternative grim paths herself

[Alexia]

Jeyne is a worshiper of the old gods, not the Seven.

[Wouter]

Death and Execution aren't exactly "letting people leave"

No, it's far more extreme in showing someone they have overstayed their welcome. Depending on the reaction of the majority of the Watch, it's possible a resurrected Jon may not even be wanted - as commander or even as ranger - anymore. So the end result could still be Jon being alive (more or less), but leaving the Watch, in which case Stannis' offer becomes really attractive.

Stannis doing whatever he damn well wants as King has been known. Which is why would he bother to go thru the trouble of finding Robb's letter?!?! He's a damn King and his word is law!! If some stupid lil bastard boy couldn't be persuaded by WORD OF THE KING to sign a damn paper and become Lord of Winterfell, throwing another paper at him (and going thru all the hours and energy and man power to find said paper) is no guarantee either

Stannis does what he wants in regards to the Wall, but if he can't persuade Jon to take the office he wants him to take, then Stannis can't force him. Better persuasion (or changed circumstances) may make Jon reconsider, though. After all, he has always wanted Winterfell, but the idea of taking what is rightfully property of his brothers and sisters has also filled him with guilt. Robb's letter could be a powerful stimulant for Jon to take it anyway, with Robb's blessing (and possibly Bran's as well).

[slayer420]

Jeyne has been thur alot. All her fight is gone she will do what anyone tells her to do. So when someone tells her to do something she will do it no questions asked.