Fez Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I think we need to see how the polls look in NH now that the Iowa results are known; but there is definitely precedent for candidates skyrocketing in the NH polls after doing well in Iowa. And if that Huntsman support survives his last place finish in Iowa intact, I would be surprised.ETA: I just looked at the most recent results, and Huntsman apparently has 700 votes, putting him ahead of "No Preference," "Other," Herman Cain, and Buddy Roemer (in that order). So Gov. Huntsman actually came in 7th place, with 0.6% of the vote.Huntsman has put all his chips in NH, he never even campaigned in Iowa. In fact this past week, while the rest of the field was in Iowa he was wandering around town halls in NH talking up the state. I don't think the Iowa result will affect him at all. Not saying he'll get past the 10% or so he's currently polling at there, but he has a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anya, Vengeance Demon Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 Huntsman has put all his chips in NH, he never even campaigned in Iowa. In fact this past week, while the rest of the field was in Iowa he was wandering around town halls in NH talking up the state. I don't think the Iowa result will affect him at all. Not saying he'll get past the 10% or so he's currently polling at there, but he has a shot.Honestly, Huntsman staying at 10% would be the best case scenario for him. Where would the impetus for a surge come from? It's clear by now that the most credible "moderate" candidate is Mitt Romney, so you'd expect Huntsman supporters to defect to Mitt, not the other way around. And if Huntsman is stuck at 10%, then he's not going to be overtaking Romney or anybody else of significance.Political scientist Jonathan Bernstein has a plausible roadmap for Rick Santorum becoming the nominee. It requires a few things to break right for him, and of course Mitt Romney has a head start on him and would have the advantage; but it's something that I could definitely see happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lupis42 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Lupin or lupis or whatever your screen name is, that infographic you posted listed the cost of social security but I didn't see anything showing future benefits compared to theoretically taxable income that could be used to support it. I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, I just would like to see the numbers.(null)Taxable income was listed as well, over to the left - there are no projections however. I don't have time to find more detailed numbers. On another note, the SS tax is already in it's second year of running a nominal deficit (i.e. SS is drawing from the general fund for the second year in a row) - I didn't realize it was going to be a problem this quickly.I think Romney probably wins over Rick Santorum too.But having said that, Santorum's major weakness before was just looking like a loser and a has-been. But he just got a major, high-profile victory, so he doesn't look like a has-been now; and if Rick Santorum's not a loser, what's the knock against him from a GOP point of view?Santorum's a total christian whackjob - he basically only polls well in the deepest parts of the bible belt. He's unlikely to get 10% in NH. Still, it's sad he was able to do even this well.Huntsman has put all his chips in NH, he never even campaigned in Iowa. In fact this past week, while the rest of the field was in Iowa he was wandering around town halls in NH talking up the state. I don't think the Iowa result will affect him at all. Not saying he'll get past the 10% or so he's currently polling at there, but he has a shot.He does, and he'll likely be taking a major chunk of that shot out of Romney's base, which will help Paul, and (unfortunately) may help Rick *CENSORED*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anya, Vengeance Demon Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 ETA: Apparently Rick Perry is going back to Texas to re-evaluate his campaign, which I guess means that he's withdrawing fairly soon. Wonder who he'll endorse.Santorum's a total christian whackjob - he basically only polls well in the deepest parts of the bible belt. He's unlikely to get 10% in NH.Still, it's sad he was able to do even this well.Curious thing to say about a guy who got elected from Pennsylvania twice, and who was pretty high up in the GOP Senate leadership. He wasn't too much of a total Christian whackjob to win the Philly suburbs back in the day, so I don't know why he would be unacceptable in NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shryke Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Taxable income was listed as well, over to the left - there are no projections however. I don't have time to find more detailed numbers. Rigth, but it's still a piss poor place to get numbers from since it has no projections and your framing of "you'd need to tax them at 60%" doesn't even make sense in relation to the payroll tax cap.On another note, the SS tax is already in it's second year of running a nominal deficit (i.e. SS is drawing from the general fund for the second year in a row) - I didn't realize it was going to be a problem this quickly.SS is supposed to be drawing from the general fund. They put in a surplus for years because of this. It's not a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shryke Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Santorum is edging out a very slim win in Iowa it looks like:http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/results/live/2012-01-3Also, Fox News uses brown to represent Santorum getting all over Iowa:http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012/iowa-caucus-jan-3:rofl: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anya, Vengeance Demon Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 Santorum is edging out a very slim win in Iowa it looks like:http://elections.nyt.../live/2012-01-3Plus Bachmann (and Rick Perry, as I mentioned earlier) is signalling that she's dropping out of the race. I don't know who they'll endorse, if anybody, but offhand I'd think that Bachmann and Perry supporters would migrate to Rick Santorum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpicyTurkey Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 How did Santorum get so much in so little time? The media was pimping hard the last couple of days. That was probably it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shryke Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 How did Santorum get so much in so little time? The media was pimping hard the last couple of days. That was probably it.He was the Not-Romney of the hour at the right time. Plus, he's been pimping himself hard in Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokisnow Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 If Mitt Romney can't beat Rick Santorum, how can he beat Barack Obama? that's my line, and I'm sticking to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seli Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 If Mitt Romney can't beat Rick Santorum, how can he beat Barack Obama? that's my line, and I'm sticking to it.By appealing to the independents and the Paulists? The detailed entrance-polls on fox were interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman of the North Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 If Mitt Romney can't beat Rick Santorum, how can he beat Barack Obama? Ah, but Romney beat Santorum with a good margin (8) in Iowa. OTOH, he's endorsed by McCain, so there's really not much hope for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lupis42 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 By appealing to the independents and the Paulists? The detailed entrance-polls on fox were interesting.The problem is, Mitt Romney really only has one thing to offer: he's not Obama. It's going to be tough to sell that to anyone not in the "Anybody but Obama" camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inigima Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Santorum is the same guy who claimed gay marriage would lead to legalized bestiality, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seli Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Santorum is the same guy who claimed gay marriage would lead to legalized bestiality, right?I've read he compared homosexual intercourse to bestiality, and wants states to be allowed to forbid anti-conception and sodomy. This claim is new to me, but seems in line with known standpoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The GRRumbler Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Im not american and from what i see in the web about the gop nominees, it looks like some sort of crazy circus to me, i mean the level of extremism is scary, how did the Republican party got so extreme? Each candidate seems to be competing to see who is more radical, i wonder if there are republican voter in this forum and what do they think about this situation.It really looks like Obama will win this one easily.I don't mean to disrespect anyone with my comments about the GOP but thats what is looking like from a outside point of view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Greguh Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 It's worth mentioning that Santorum, for the time that he was in the Senate, was the single biggest Creationism whore on Capitol Hill: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santorum_Amendment. Sadly that will be seen as a positive in the Republican primaries and hardly a liability in the general election should he get the nomination. The damage a Santorum presidency would do to the educational system alone via the president's influence over the federal judiciary (not to mention SCOTUS nominations) is horrifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lupis42 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I've read he compared homosexual intercourse to bestiality, and wants states to be allowed to forbid anti-conception and sodomy. This claim is new to me, but seems in line with known standpoints.He also attempted to de-fund educational programs that teach evolution - basically, imagine the most extreme caricature of a christian right, bible thumping nutjob you've ever seen - that's Santorum. (Well, that's the second definition, you'll have to google the real meaning yourself.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Greguh Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I don't mean to disrespect anyone with my comments about the GOP but thats what is looking like from a outside point of view.Disrespect away. It's accurate. They're absolutely off-the-deep-end bonkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awesome possum Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Curious thing to say about a guy who got elected from Pennsylvania twice, and who was pretty high up in the GOP Senate leadership. He wasn't too much of a total Christian whackjob to win the Philly suburbs back in the day, so I don't know why he would be unacceptable in NH.Because it's not back in the day anymore? And the power of Google compels you.Disrespect away. It's accurate. They're absolutely off-the-deep-end bonkers.Absolutely. No group of wannabe nominees has ever been more deserving of disrespect than this group of assbags and nutjobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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