The strange and subtle elephants of the Golden Company

[Bran Vras]

A few hints that not all is what it seems in Volantis. It's only foreshadowing, so I don't claim to prove anything (or to have any firm belief).

1) Doran Martell warned us

In AFfC:

[Arianne and Areo] found Doran Martell seated behind a cyvasse table [..] He was toying with an onyx elephant, turning it in his reddened, swollen hands. [...]

“A strange and subtle folk, the Volantenes,”

2) The elephant and the six red wolves

In the pits, after Dany's marriage:

Dany watched an elephant make short work of a pack of six red wolves.

The only red wolves we see are:

Griff’s cloak was made from the hide and head of a red wolf of the Rhoyne.

3) The Volantenes are the masters of cyvasse

Tyrion wins against Haldon, and against Brown Ben Plumm, but not against the Volantene custom officer:

“Very good,” he said, plucking up his dragon. “The most powerful piece in the game,” he announced, as he removed one of Qavo’s elephants. “And Daenerys Targaryen has three, it’s said.”

“Three,” Qavo allowed, “against thrice three thousand enemies. Grazdan mo Eraz was not the only envoy sent out from the Yellow City. When the Wise Masters move against Meereen, the legions of New Ghis will fight beside them. Tolosi. Elyrians. Even the Dothraki.”

“You have Dothraki outside your own gates,” Haldon said. “Khal Pono.” Qavo waved a pale hand in dismissal. “The horselords come, we give them gifts, the horselords go.” He moved his catapult again, closed his hand around Tyrion’s alabaster dragon, removed it from the board.

The rest was slaughter, though the dwarf held on another dozen moves. “The time has come for bitter tears,” Qavo said at last, scooping up the pile of silver. “Another game?”

4) The new triarchy

Quentyn has seen Volantis before the election. Tyrion has seen Volantis during the election. Victarion has left the city just as the election was over. We never see what happens after the Tigers have seized power (if they have, which not even confirmed).

5) The obsession of Harry Strickland with elephants

We know Harry has a nose for gold, and a fondness for pachyderms.

“With my elephants,” Harry Strickland said, in a mournful tone. He missed his elephants, did Homeless Harry.

We are missing horses as well, and the elephants.

We were warned also by the his Lyseni spymaster:

And elephants, we must not forget the elephants.

6) Elephantesque Illyrio

Illyrio is twice compared to an elephant by Tyrion.

Our lord of cheese is the size of an elephant[...]

For half a heartbeat he thought he glimpsed Illyrio Mopatis, but it was only one of those white dwarf elephants passing the front door.

7) A new Volantene paymaster

He has been hired by Harry Strickland and he stays close to his prince.

The rest of their men had remained in camp to guard their landing site and prince, under the command of the company’s Volantene paymaster, Gorys Edoryen.

8) Haldon's history lesson to Aegon

The lesson is a bit long. In short, Volantis attempted to rule the world after the Doom and gave up after one century. Then the elephants seized power and favoured trade over war.

“Just so,” said Haldon. “And the present triarchs?” “Malaquo is a tiger, Nyessos and Doniphos are elephants.” “And what lesson can we draw from Volantene history?” “If you want to conquer the world, you best have dragons.”

9) The Volantenes are capricious transporters

Lord Connington worries about his army after having landed in Westeros.

“And no elephants,” the Halfmaester reminded him. Not one of the great cogs carrying the elephants had turned up yet. They had last seen them at Lys, before the storm that had scattered half the fleet.

“Word’s reached the camp from Marq Mandrake. The Volantenes put him ashore on what turned out to be Estermont, with close to five hundred men. He’s taken Greenstone.” Estermont was an island off Cape Wrath, never one of their objectives. “The damned Volantenes are so eager to be rid of us they are dumping us ashore on any bit of land they see,” said Franklyn Flowers. “I’ll wager you that we’ve got lads scattered all over half the bloody Stepstones too.”

10) Victarion shouldn't be so sure.

Victarion as he approaches Meereen:

He took care not to mention the green galleys of Old Volantis that surely must be sailing up through the Gulf of Grief even as he spoke.

Where is the evidence that the Volantene fleet sailed to Meereen?

I wouldn't be surprised if one of the following happened: 1) the Volantene fleet expected in Meereen shows up elsewhere (why not Blackwater Bay, while the Iron Throne has sent an army to deal with Aegon in the Stormlands?) or 2) Volantis supported and manipulated Aegon's Landing in Westeros.

To end with Doran Martell, I am not absolutely sure the following passage from ADwD refers to the transportation of the Golden Company.

“From Lys. A great fleet has put in there to take on water. Volantene ships chiefly, carrying an army. No word as to who they are, or where they might be bound. There was talk of elephants.”

[Bran Vras]

To be fair, the best evidence for the coming of the Volanteene fleet is from the Shavepate:

Skahaz moved closer. “[...] And there is more. Worse. Volantis has launched its fleet against us.”

“Volantis.” Selmy’s sword hand tingled. We made a peace with Yunkai. Not with Volantis. “You are certain?”

“Certain. The Wise Masters know. So do their friends. The Harpy, Reznak, Hizdahr. This king will open the city gates to the Volantenes when they arrive. All those Daenerys freed will be enslaved again. Even some who were never slaves will be fitted for chains. You may end your days in a fighting pit, old man. Khrazz will eat your heart.”

However reliable the Shavepate's information is, it came from before the new triarchy was elected, since Victarion has not reached Meereen yet.

[Eejit]

Tyrion wins against Haldon, and against Brown Ben Plumm, but not against the Volantene custom officer:

Tyrion played to lose the game against the customs officer, losing the money wagered. It was the traditional bribe.

[Bran Vras]

It's possible that that he money wagered was a bribe (and I missed that). But, where is the indication that Tyrion played to lose? Qavo might be a strong enough cyvasse player that he does not need to require rigged play. He seems to take pleasure in winning his games. What would be the point of making Tyrion play if not for:

“No need,” said Haldon. “My dwarf has had his lesson in humility. I think it is best we get back to our boat.”

Moreover Tyrion resisted to the bitter end in the game. All indications are that the game for real. (Possibly part of a bribe, I concede.)

[Eejit]

Haldon said, “The noble Qavo Nogarys is the customs officer here in Selhorys. I have never once defeated him at cyvasse.”

Tyrion understood. “Perhaps I will be more fortunate.” He opened his purse and stacked silver coins beside the board, one atop another until finally Qavo smiled.

Tyrion understood about the bribe for information. He knew he was to lose the game. Making Tyrion play a game he had to lose was his lesson in humility.

[Bran Vras]

Thanks for the quote. But I still don't see Tyrion playing to lose. Wouldn't a proud and reputed cyvasse player allow his opponent to escape the bribe by defeating him? A rigged game is boring (and somewhat shameful for those who value the game), and Qavo seems to love cyvasse. Moreover, until Tyrion lost his dragon, it seems the game could have gone either way, and Qavo had finished talking at this point. So it seems that losing the game was not part of the bribe, it was only playing the game.

Even if the game was rigged, that does not change its value for foreshadowing, if it has any.

[JayDubya]

I like the idea that the Volantine fleet is going to Westeros instead of Meereen. That would be, perhaps, to give Young Griff a big enough force to wipe out the Tyrells (and themselves), leaving only the Arryns and the Martells with an army of any size to fight the Others.

Interesting.

[Waterfall]

Good thinking and research!

I think the second half of the Iron Fleet also has something to do with it, fleets don't just disappear. Mayhaps they joined their forces to attack something else..

[Armstark]

So if I get this right Griff is gonna be killed by an elephant? sweet.

[Brucolac]

I think the elephants were only added to give the golden company an eastern flair. Just having them same as the rest of the seven kingdoms kind of makes them drab and makes you wonder why they didn't adopt any of the culture of their exile. That being said, I don't know that I believe in the ability of medieval naval to transport elephants.

[jarl the climber]

I think the elephants were only added to give the golden company an eastern flair. Just having them same as the rest of the seven kingdoms kind of makes them drab and makes you wonder why they didn't adopt any of the culture of their exile. That being said, I don't know that I believe in the ability of medieval naval to transport elephants.

I'm not an expert on ancient war but the Carthiginians were able to transport elephants to Sicily and Italy during the Punic wars, the route from Volantis to Westeros never has to leave sight of land.

Good thinking and research!

I think the second half of the Iron Fleet also has something to do with it, fleets don't just disappear. Mayhaps they joined their forces to attack something else..

Victorian actually split his fleet in three when he left the Stepstones, one part went to Myr or something to sell the captives the Ironborn took on the Shields before rendevousing at the Isle of Cedars, another group went to Southyros or the Basilisk Isles to resupply before heaqding to the rendevous point, only 9 of these made it to Vic. Vics group went to the rendevous point via Volantis. I think at least some of the ships that took the southern route deserted and became pirates but who knows

[Lebronn Jaime]

If the disposition of the Volantene fleet is up in the air and we're speculating that the Tigers won the recent election, then maybe they're headed towards Lys. If Humfrey Hightwoer was successful in hiring ships from Lys he might have left it defenseless enough for Volantis to consider attacking their old enemies. Consider also that a significant portion of the free companies are occupied in Slaver's Bay and that Volantis has just finished transporting the best of them to Westeros. We also know that Myr and Tyrosh are at odds with Lys, and may be unlikely to come to its aid.

[unJon]

Agree about Tyrion understanding he was to intentionally lose.

Also, I take the Elephant and the 6 red wolves as foreshadowing of the dragon (elephant) slaying the Dornishmen (red wolves from Rhoyne).

Very interesting theory though.

[Brucolac]

He crossed at Gibraltar, which is less than ten miles.

[jarl the climber]

He crossed at Gibraltar, which is less than ten miles.

The first time the Romans faced Carthiginian elephants was on Sicily during the first Punic war, the elephants were shipped directly from Africa but I don't know how but they did it. For that matter the Romans shipped all kinds of exotic animals to Rome for their various games and shows, they had people who did this for a living.

[Brucolac]

There is a bunch of lost history and a bunch of lies as well, but I am thinking you are talking about the invasion of italy, which started in the iberian penisula. I only studied Hannibal, not sure about the first punic war. I don't know of an actual record that says how he moved them across, but Carthage stretched all across norhern africa and considering where he started in europe, Gibraltar seems the likely crossing point. He was using the smaller indian elephant which might have been easier to move around. There were land routes they could have been using as well.

I was really pointing out that I thought they were using elephants just to add a level of depth to their history. They are seven kingdomers that have been in exile long enough to adopt foreign culture and tatics. When you look at a joined map, I guess it only looks like 300 miles is seperating the two continents based off the wall, so not that long of a journey. It just seems to me that Westeros naval is anachronistic in relation to every other technology we see in the world. Nor do I really see why everyone else besides Dany has such an easy time of moving around.

[The GRRumbler]

Can you guys provide a quote about Tyrion? 'cause i really don't remember that.

[RobertOfTheHouseBaratheon]

The first time the Romans faced Carthiginian elephants was on Sicily during the first Punic war, the elephants were shipped directly from Africa but I don't know how but they did it. For that matter the Romans shipped all kinds of exotic animals to Rome for their various games and shows, they had people who did this for a living.

The distance from Carthage to Sicily is very small. You can see Italy and North Africa if you look from the different shores of Sicily. Westeros is supposed to be a distance from Essos. I'd like to point out though there is no evidence at the moment the elephants have made it yet so perhaps they couldn't.

[Clueless Northman]

You can see Italy and North Africa if you look from the different shores of Sicily.

No, you can't. Italy and Sicily are very close, just 3km straits, but Africa is roughly 130 km from Sicily.

Though the real problem to bring elephants from Volantis to Westeros would rather be the many days of sailing.

Carthaginians, Pyrrhus and others managed to bring elephants to Italy, but that was probably quite tricky. Livy reports that Hannibal had trouble making his elephants go across the Rhone, which is nowhere near as large as Gibraltar straits. (granted, he didn't have ships to cross the river, just rafts, which probably explains the difficulty)

[Bran Vras]

In the OP, whatever I said was not very coherent. Here is an attempt at reasoning. We know that:

1) The Tigers have not been in power for three centuries, and are on the verge of becoming dominant in the triarchy.

2) The abolition of slavery in Slaver's Bay is unacceptable for the Volantene elite.

3) The Tigers are imperialist and bellicose.

That seems to indicate that Volantis will go to war with Meereen, especially since that's what everybody seems to believe on the street. But

4) The Red Religion is rising and is dominant among the Volantene officer corps.

5) The Red priests see Daenarys as a savior.

6) To conquer the world one needs dragons (see Young Griff in OP).

So it would be dangerous to send an army to fight Dany. Given the current situation, sending the Volantene army in another place than Meereen would deflect the problem posed by the rising Red religion at home. Since there are important Red Temples in all Free Cities, and that a slave revolt supported by the Red Temple of Qohor just happened, the case can be made that the best destination for war would be Westeros.

Prince Doran reminds us that:

A strange and subtle folk, the Volantenes.

I take that as a hint that the Volantene will deal with Dany by some other mean than military force. If the current Tigers are conquerors like their forebears were, they will try to take control of the dragons. It would be logical that Volantis had agents in Meereen. I wouldn't be surprised that some of the sellsword companies work for them, especially since several companies were sent from Volantis.

In the OP, I forgot the following prediction by Vogarro's whore.

“And what do you think?” Ser Jorah asked.

Good, thought Tyrion. The right question. “Oh, I think it will be war as well, but not the war they want.”