Greyjoys - Dumb, dumber and dumbest

[Morrigan]

If they had just kept to themselves, no one would have cared if they were independent (with the whole realm in chaos), and they could've kept their culture and religion as much as they had wished. But by attacking the coastline, they pissed off so many different lords that they will surely get invaded at some point.

Well see the problem is that attacking coastlines pretty much is their "culture".... ;)

[The Frosted King]

Yeah, i don't see how attacking the north was at all a viable plan.

To the iron throne, the major family of the north could be called the cukkcouucochuus and it wouldn't matter, so long as they remained part of the seven kingdoms.

Robb or Balon, no other king could be suffered.

Such a bumblefukk of a plan man.

Balon was by far the most foolish.

Theon comes next. Pride can be the basis for stupidity, since it skews your vision.

Aeron. He drinks seawater.

[Hear Us Roar]

The North could be held. Not all of it at the same time. It may take years for the entire land to come in to the fold but it can be held. he Greyjoys held the enirety of the riverlands before Aegon the conquerer arrived.

So yes, islanders can hold the mainland

[WITCHKING]

Balon.If he had just an iq over 80 he would bargain with the Lanister's before he invade the North , not after...

[James Arryn]

Balon.If he had just an iq over 80 he would bargain with the Lanister's before he invade the North , not after...

That kinda gives them the trump card then, no?

[WITCHKING]

That kinda gives them the trump card then, no?

I'm sorry my English are not very good.What do you mean the trump card?

[James Arryn]

I'm sorry my English are not very good.What do you mean the trump card?

Like, the high value item.

If by negotiate you mean in any way tell the Lannisters, of all people, about your secret plan that depends on surprise...and expect them to give you value now that you've effectively put yourself in their maw (lion mouth)...I think they buy low. (don't give good value in return.)

[WITCHKING]

Yes but when he send a letter with demands to the Lanister's AFTER he invaded the North Tywin response was why give him anything for something he already is doing for free?

[James Arryn]

Yes but when he send a letter with demands to the Lanister's AFTER he invaded the North Tywin response was why give him anything for something he already is doing for free?

Yeah, I don't think they make for good business partners either way.

I repeat that attacking the Lannisters (not for Robb, for Greyjoy) was THE move. Dumb to miss it, I guess.

[WITCHKING]

Yeah, I don't think they make for good business partners either way.

I repeat that attacking the Lannisters (not for Robb, for Greyjoy) was THE move. Dumb to miss it, I guess.

I believe the best move for Greyjoy was to stay neutral during the war and strike after when all the kingdoms will be weak...

[James Arryn]

I believe the best move for Greyjoy was to stay neutral during the war and strike after when all the kingdoms will be weak...

After they won't all be weak. It will be a consolidation of power.

But jump the Lannisters before Raventree Hall falls, and you have them at your mercy. Westerland depleted of troops, no navy to protect the coast and their armies are dispersed and tied down.

AND it's much richer and more condensed/easier to control.

It was the move. Patch up a truce or even secret alliance with the Tyrells, and go for gold.

[WITCHKING]

Most probaply Balon was scared of Tywin Lanister...

[James Arryn]

Most probaply Balon was scared of Tywin Lanister...

He's stuck in Harenhall. And then KL. But for ironic symmetry Harrenhall would be perfect, if you think about it.

[Darth Rivers]

I think Theon is not so much stupid as overly arrogant. He's pretty bright. IIRC he knew that he couldn't really hold Winterfell - all he wanted in the first place was to earn some glory and his father's recognition through taking it. He didn't think what he'd do afterwards, though.

[Independent George]

Notice a pattern here? Balon's plan seems like the definition of a lose-lose scenario to me.

Balon's original plan was brilliant. I think you're underestimating the their ability to hold on to the Northern coasts, and overestimating Robb's ability to defeat Tywin, Stannis, and Renly (especially with the North cut off).

Let's start purely from a military standpoint. At the time of his attack in ACOK, the bulk of the Northerner's strength is in the Riverlands. The Ironborn hold Moat Cailin, controlling the neck and cutting off the Northern army. It's damned hard to re-take a castle by force, especially when the defenders can be re-supplied by sea. In fact, I'd say it's close to impossible - a besieging army is extremely vulnerable to counterattack from the rear, and controlling the seas mean the Ironborn can land a relief force anywhere on the coasts. Just to get back north, Robb needs to march past the neck - which managed to throw back Andal hosts ten times the size of the defenders.

Politically, there is nothing dumb about betting against Robb - particularly if you have the power to cut off the neck. By controlling the North, it ensures the only way to defeat the Ironborn is at sea, where they have the advantage. There are only two naval powers that can rival match the Ironborn - Stannis' fleet, and the Redwyne fleet - which at the time were poised to wipe each other out first before they can turn to the Iron islands.

Most of their defeats in FFC/DWD comes because they sent most of their strength to Essos. Balon's plan was sound, and Asha agreed. Euron changed things by taking an all-or-nothing gamble on the dragons.

[naik2902]

theon was good. its his father and sister made him to turn against starks. and later he gets paid in return for his betrayal. even yara and balon dont respect him. later he get caught and held captive for long and abused and by removing his teeth and lot of attrocities to this poor guy faces.

[Catastrophe]

Balon's original plan was brilliant. I think you're underestimating the their ability to hold on to the Northern coasts, and overestimating Robb's ability to defeat Tywin, Stannis, and Renly (especially with the North cut off).

Let's start purely from a military standpoint. At the time of his attack in ACOK, the bulk of the Northerner's strength is in the Riverlands. The Ironborn hold Moat Cailin, controlling the neck and cutting off the Northern army. It's damned hard to re-take a castle by force, especially when the defenders can be re-supplied by sea. In fact, I'd say it's close to impossible - a besieging army is extremely vulnerable to counterattack from the rear, and controlling the seas mean the Ironborn can land a relief force anywhere on the coasts. Just to get back north, Robb needs to march past the neck - which managed to throw back Andal hosts ten times the size of the defenders.

Politically, there is nothing dumb about betting against Robb - particularly if you have the power to cut off the neck. By controlling the North, it ensures the only way to defeat the Ironborn is at sea, where they have the advantage. There are only two naval powers that can rival match the Ironborn - Stannis' fleet, and the Redwyne fleet - which at the time were poised to wipe each other out first before they can turn to the Iron islands.

Most of their defeats in FFC/DWD comes because they sent most of their strength to Essos. Balon's plan was sound, and Asha agreed. Euron changed things by taking an all-or-nothing gamble on the dragons.

I wasn't overestimating Robb. My point was that even if Robb lost, Balon would still lose too. There's nothing dumb about betting against Robb, but it's extremely dumb to bet against Robb, Tywin, Renly, and Stannis, and still expect to win. The North might've been the only area he was personally attacking, but none of the Kings would've been happy about his bid for independence. Do you really think Tywin would've just stood by and let Balon get away with half the kingdom? Do you really think Renly or Stannis would've stood for him being "King of the Isles and the North"?

You're right that Robb couldn't consolidate his forces while he was still fighting the Lannisters, but eventually he'd either win the war or lose it. When that happened, whoever came out on top- be it Stark, Lannister, or Baratheon- would consolidate their forces, take back the North, and put Balon Greyjoy in his place.

Balon also ignored the fact that it would be almost impossible for him to hold the North, even if he did succeed in taking it. Even on the off chance that none of the other Great Houses came to take the North for themselves, his forces would still be facing massive civilian insurgencies in an unfamiliar landscape, and things only would've gotten worse for them when winter came.

[Lord Littlefinger's Lash]

I wasn't overestimating Robb. My point was that even if Robb lost, Balon would still lose too. There's nothing dumb about betting against Robb, but it's extremely dumb to bet against Robb, Tywin, Renly, and Stannis, and still expect to win. The North might've been the only area he was personally attacking, but none of the Kings would've been happy about his bid for independence. Do you really think Tywin would've just stood by and let Balon get away with half the kingdom? Do you really think Renly or Stannis would've stood for him being "King of the Isles and the North"?

You're right that Robb couldn't consolidate his forces while he was still fighting the Lannisters, but eventually he'd either win the war or lose it. When that happened, whoever came out on top- be it Stark, Lannister, or Baratheon- would consolidate their forces, take back the North, and put Balon Greyjoy in his place.

Balon also ignored the fact that it would be almost impossible for him to hold the North, even if he did succeed in taking it. Even on the off chance that none of the other Great Houses came to take the North for themselves, his forces would still be facing massive civilian insurgencies in an unfamiliar landscape, and things only would've gotten worse for them when winter came.

Uh.... I'm still waiting for an answer to this question....

How is it viable? Seems to me Balon's plan was the opposite of what you said, he was maximizing his own losses. In modern terms it'd be considered a "high risk, low reward" strategy. Let's look at the possibilities:

In a worst-case scenario, if the Greyjoys lose the North and the Starks win the war against the Lannisters: Balon is left with nothing but massive casualties. The Starks come back in force to retaliate against Balon for his treachery, possibly ending House Greyjoy or removing them from power, and the Iron Islands are left economically and militarily ruined.

How are they going to do that? They don't have any ships. If they built ships they wouldn't have anyone to sail them. If they had some one to sail they, still wouldn't match the Iron Born at sea.

[eivers]

White Harbor could of just turtled till it had finished construction of the Northern fleet. Also the only real reason the Iron Born still had any territory in the North in Dance was because of the turmoil caused by the Bolton betrayal. Take away the Bolton betrayal and it sounded like the North would of almost been completely free of the Iron Born by the time Robb returned from the South.

[The Sleeper]

Let's take the hypothetical scenario that Winterfell had not fallen, which is something that Balon could not have possibly counted on. Ser Rodrick gathers as many troops as possible. How many would that be. The armies around Winterfell at this time suggest it could be somewhere in the vicinity of 10k. Meanwhile while Moat Cailin is relatively close to the sea but still inland, it means that any reinforcements/supplies would need to sail up a river and cross some considerable distance on land. As we know that the ironmen don't have much in the way of cavalry or pikemen it makes them easy pickings for the northern cavalry. The result: the iron fleet gets pinned at Moat Cailin with supplies or chance of retreat. Rodrick let's them stew for a while in the healhty environment of the Moat and you have Balon having lost the best part of his forces to gain the enmity of the North. That is the best case scenario for the ironborn. The worst case scenario is where Rodrick tries to chase them from everywhere at once which forces a war of attrition with the much larger North.

Ships can be built and crews can be hired. Can you think of a great naval power with an insatiable apetite for wood, who might look favorably on exterminating a nest of pirates?

So, Balon was quite dumb.

Theon's move to take Winterfell was quite smart actually. His later actions not so much.

Asha seems to have quite a grasp of both startegy and politics and most importantly is able to think pragmatically and in the long term.

Euron at the very least has flare. If he sticks with his conquests I think he is heading for as big a disaster as Balon, but it seems to me he won't. After all his original plan was to take all of the ironborn to Essos, so I thiknk he is going to sitck with reaving and pack up and leave when the Redwyne fleet shows up. The next prime target would be the previously undefended Lannisport.