Theory about Sansa's true importance to Littlefinger

[James Arryn]

Too bad for him that maidenheads can't be mounted and hung above the mantle like moose heads.

Not easily, no, but I'd bet GRRM would be willing to give it a try.

I love his work, but he clearly seems to be a guy prone to fetishes.

[Sand Snake No. 9]

So, what do we think that whole betrothal to Harry-the-Heir thing is about, anyway? I don't think it's entirely genuine, either, but I have no idea why Littlefinger would arrange such a thing or where it's going.

ETA: Why wouldn't Littlefinger trust Sansa? It's not like she's the criminal mastermind. (Although there is that talking to Cersei thing.)

[YUNG LYANNA]

In what way is that obvious?

its implied throughout the whole series, I guess that isn't obvious enough.

A Lannister price. They won't be around for much longer. Anyway, I'm talking about in the scenario that she's married to Harry the heir. Right now she's within Petyr's control. But as soon as he married her off to the heir of the Vale she and Harry would be his biggest threats. It doesn't make sense for him to create problems for himself. I call Bullshit.

I understand why you are doubtful that the plan he layed out to sansa is his actual plan, because he is usually so cunning that it would be a stupid, amateur move on his part, but it also seems to me that you feel this way because you think he is too much of a brilliant mastermind that he wouldnt be able to make a mistake such as trusting sansa. I think she has shown thus far to be so naive, that LF could actually make the mistake of trusting her, especially since he sees so much of cat in her. it is not likely that he trusts anyone, given his nature, but its still a possibility.

that said - i dont think he will actually end up marrying sansa off, but if he does, then he will most likely have another scheme to get rid of harry once he has outlived his usefulness.

i think it's unrealistic to assume that his scheming will always turn out the way he plans. he has to lose at some point, everyone does.

[Lord Littlefinger's Lash]

its implied throughout the whole series, I guess that isn't obvious enough.

No its not. And I'll take that to mean you don't have any evidence, to present. I think its much more likely, that until he comes across Sansa in Kingslanding and Catelyn earlier visit, Petyr hasn't really thought about Catelyn that much. The subject of his wrath seems to be Hoster and Edmure Tully. Edmure who squired for Brandon in their duel and Hoster, his foster father who banished Petyr to the littlest finger.

Ned and Catelyn only seem to be collateral damage or secondary targets best. Ned was given every opportunity to save himself. Catelyn, is an even more remote concern.

I understand why you are doubtful that the plan he layed out to sansa is his actual plan, because he is usually so cunning that it would be a stupid, amateur move on his part, but it also seems to me that you feel this way because you think he is too much of a brilliant mastermind that he wouldnt be able to make a mistake such as trusting sansa.

yeah trusting anyone is a stupid thing to do. no only can i not imagine him trusting Sansa, I can't imagine him trusting anyone.

I think she has shown thus far to be so naive, that LF could actually make the mistake of trusting her, especially since he sees so much of cat in her. it is not likely that he trusts anyone, given his nature, but its still a possibility.

that said - i dont think he will actually end up marrying sansa off, but if he does, then he will most likely have another scheme to get rid of harry once he has outlived his usefulness.

i think it's unrealistic to assume that his scheming will always turn out the way he plans. he has to lose at some point, everyone does.

Its not that his plans always turnout in the way that he predicts. Its that anticipates all the ways the plan could turn out and how to benefit from those outcomes before he implements said plan.

Xanatos Gambit

"The key to strategy... is not to choose a path to victory, but to choose so that

all

paths lead to

a

victory."

—

Cavilo

,

The Vor Game

A Xanatos Gambit is a plan whose multiple foreseen outcomes all benefit its creator. It's a win-win situation for whoever plots it.

At its most basic, the Xanatos Gambit assumes two possible outcomes for the one manipulated — success or failure. The plan is designed in such a way that either outcome will ultimately further the plotter's goals.

Since the Xanatos Gambit can involve an obvious goal's apparent failure, this is a convenient device on an ongoing series to let the villain occasionally win (preventing Villain Decay) while still giving the heroes a climactic pseudo-victory. The only way to escape a Xanatos Gambit once you're caught up in one is by somehow foiling both presented options and leaving the organizer thoroughly beaten.

This trope is named after David Xanatos, one of the main antagonists in the series Gargoyles, who was a master of the technique and used it consistently to serve his own ends.

If the character's plan is continually revised to bring about a winning solution no matter what happens, he is playing Xanatos Speed Chess. When a plan is so ludicrously complicated that it relied more on luck than actual planning and foresight, it's a Gambit Roulette. If the plan relies on misdirection rather than Morton's Fork, then it's a Kansas City Shuffle. If several people are trying to out-scheme the other in this way, you might be headed for a Gambit Pileup.

Contrast with Indy Ploy, a "plan" executed with no planning whatsoever, and Batman Gambit, a plan which relies on people doing as predicted in given circumstances. The Magnificent Bastard is a villain type likely to use these, but a particularly skilled Chessmaster, Manipulative Bastard, or Guile Heromay also pull one off.

Remember: It's only a Xanatos Gambit if all the plausible outcomes benefit the mastermind in some way. At the very least, the planner has to benefit regardless of whether the obvious plan succeeds or fails. This is not a shorthand for "any clever, complex, evil plan." You may want Evil Plan for that. Instances of this term that use "Xanatos Gambit" without the key

quality of "all (or at least two) plausible outcomes always benefit the mastermind" are WRONG. Please fix them wherever you see them at

TV Tropes. If you can't decide what kind of plan it is use The Plan which is the supertrope for plans in general.

[Lord Littlefinger's Lash]

So, what do we think that whole betrothal to Harry-the-Heir thing is about, anyway? I don't think it's entirely genuine, either, but I have no idea why Littlefinger would arrange such a thing or where it's going.

ETA: Why wouldn't Littlefinger trust Sansa? It's not like she's the criminal mastermind. (Although there is that talking to Cersei thing.)

"

Trust no one,

I once told Eddard Stark, but he would not listen."

“Is there a man in your service that you trust utterly and completely?”

“Yes,” said Ned.

“In that case, I have a delightful palace in Valyria that I would dearly love to sell you,” Littlefinger said with a mocking smile. “The wiser answer was no, my lord, but be that as it may. Send this paragon of yours to Ser Hugh and the others. Your own comings and goings will be noted, but even Varys the Spider cannot watch every man in your service every hour of the day.” He started for the door.

“Lord Petyr,” Ned called after him. “I... am grateful for your help. Perhaps I was wrong to distrust you.”

Littlefinger fingered his small pointed beard. “You are slow to learn, Lord Eddard. Distrusting me was the wisest thing you’ve done since you climbed down off your horse.”

“Perhaps you should be the fool instead of me.

Trust no one

, my prince. Not your chainless maester, not your false father, not the gallant Duck nor the lovely Lemore nor these other fine friends who grew you from a bean. Above all, trust not the cheesemonger, nor the Spider, nor this little dragon queen you mean to marry. All that mistrust will sour your stomach and keep you awake by night, ’tis true, but better that than the long sleep that does not end.”

[Eyron]

When the lords declarant is coming to meet LF to make him surrender lord Robert to them, LF insist that the maester should give him a pinch of sweetsleep to make him representable, the maester is hesitant and the apple in his throat moves up and down, as he is swallowing. He eventually agrees to a pinch of sweetsleep, not to much and not too often.

In the last chapter Sansa is discussing the descent from the Eyrie with maester Coleman, and she tells him Robert says the maester put something vile in his milk the night before. The maester seems nervous,the apple in his throat moved up and down, and he asks if Robert has bled from the nose. (The way the maester reacts, I think he gave Robert sweetsleep the day before, but as that poison isn't vile tasting it could be something other) He claims he gave Robert sweetsleep not three days past.

The maester suggests they give Robert milk of the poppy to put him to sleep for the climb down the mountain, Sansa refuses since the lord can't descend his mountain tied up like a sack of barleycorn. LF have warned her that they must hide the little lord's frailty from the lords in the Vale. She tells him to give Robert a cup of sweetmilk to stop him from shaking on the way down. The maester says a pinch will stop the shaking but not leave the flesh. (a cup of sweetmilk seems to equal a pinch of sweetsleep)

The maester is very concerned and asks her again if he had any nose bleed. She says he was sniffling but she didn't see any blood.

The passage that makes me think Sansa is aware of Roberts poisoning is this:

Sansa: "Just give him a cup of sweetmilk before we go, and another one at the feast, and there should be no trouble"

Maester Colemon: "Very well."... "But this must be the last. For half a year, or longer"

Sansa: "You had best take that up with the Lord Protector."

...

Colemon only wanted what was best for his charge, Alayne knew, but what was best for the boy and what was best for Lord Arryn were not always the same. Petyr had said as much, and it was true. Maester Colemon cares only for the boy, though. Father and I have larger concerns.

It's not absolutely certain from the text that she is aware of any bad intentions from LF, but she is not a complete fool, she is aware of the danger. She notices in the same chapter as the one with the first instance of sweetsleep how small Robert is, that she could carry him herself and he is not much heavier than a doll. She has noticed that he even seems like he is going mad, and that frightens her. From the quote above I take it that she realises that they are harming Robert, but that his title is more important than the boy himself. And since Robert is in no danger from the lords of the Vale, and she knows they only want to take him off the hands of LF and raise him among themselves, what does she fear, why is the title more important than the boy?

She insist that Robert must have sweetsleep for the decline or he will not be able to make it down, he could have a fit and fall off the mountain and thus she follows LF's instructions that Robert must seem healthier than he is, when the lords of the Vale are watching. She knows there is a safer alternative, milk of the poppy, but she knows that is not what Petyr would have ordered. In the end she goes with the sweetsleep as Petyr would have wanted. I believe Sansa does not want Petyr in danger, but I think it is for her own safety first, he has made her think that if she is revealed she would be taken to Cercei and probably be killed (which could be right of course but it doesn't rhyme well with his plan to unveil her at the wedding with Harry the Heir).

Problem is, even if Sansa is not completely aware of the acute danger with sweetsleep, LF surely is. And we hear from the waif in the house of black and white that three pinches means a never ending sleep.

"Sweetsleep is the gentlest of poisons," the waif told her, as she was grinding some with mortar and pestle. "A few grains will slow a pounding heart and stop a hand from shaking, and make a man feel calm and strong. A pinch will grant a night of deep and dreamless sleep. Three pinches will produce that sleep that does not end."

So the pinch Robert had a while back, the one last night or a day ago, plus the one for the ride down the mountain, and the one he will get at the feast, taking into account how small he is and that he doesn't hardly eat anything, I think Sweetrobin is done for. With the help of Sansa, aware or not. I hope not but there we are.

Besides the sweetsleep, we know that milk of the poppy is addictive, and causes headaches, which Robert complains about. Robert is given three different kinds of sedatives, milk of the poppy, dreamwine and sweetsleep. All such sedatives can cause withdrawal effects, e.g. hyperventilation resulting in epileptic fits. And LF is no n00b at poisons right?

[Lord Littlefinger's Lash]

When the lords declarant is coming to meet LF to make him surrender lord Robert to them, LF insist that the maester should give him a pinch of sweetsleep to make him representable, the maester is hesitant and the apple in his throat moves up and down, as he is swallowing. He eventually agrees to a pinch of sweetsleep, not to much and not too often.

In the last chapter Sansa is discussing the descent from the Eyrie with maester Coleman, and she tells him Robert says the maester put something vile in his milk the night before. The maester seems nervous,the apple in his throat moved up and down, and he asks if Robert has bled from the nose. (The way the maester reacts, I think he gave Robert sweetsleep the day before, but as that poison isn't vile tasting it could be something other) He claims he gave Robert sweetsleep not three days past.

The maester suggests they give Robert milk of the poppy to put him to sleep for the climb down the mountain, Sansa refuses since the lord can't descend his mountain tied up like a sack of barleycorn. LF have warned her that they must hide the little lord's frailty from the lords in the Vale. She tells him to give Robert a cup of sweetmilk to stop him from shaking on the way down. The maester says a pinch will stop the shaking but not leave the flesh. (a cup of sweetmilk seems to equal a pinch of sweetsleep)

The maester is very concerned and asks her again if he had any nose bleed. She says he was sniffling but she didn't see any blood.

The passage that makes me think Sansa is aware of Roberts poisoning is this:

Sansa: "Just give him a cup of sweetmilk before we go, and another one at the feast, and there should be no trouble"

Maester Colemon: "Very well."... "But this must be the last. For half a year, or longer"

Sansa: "You had best take that up with the Lord Protector."

...

Colemon only wanted what was best for his charge, Alayne knew, but what was best for the boy and what was best for Lord Arryn were not always the same. Petyr had said as much, and it was true. Maester Colemon cares only for the boy, though. Father and I have larger concerns.

It's not absolutely certain from the text that she is aware of any bad intentions from LF,

Its also not clear Littlefinger has any bad intentions.

but she is not a complete fool,

she is.

she is aware of the danger.

aware of what? sweet sleep is poison. I assume she knows that. But it also has medicinal properties.

She notices in the same chapter as the one with the first instance of sweetsleep how small Robert is, that she could carry him herself and he is not much heavier than a doll. She has noticed that he even seems like he is going mad, and that frightens her. From the quote above I take it that she realises that they are harming Robert, but that his title is more important than the boy himself. And since Robert is in no danger from the lords of the Vale, and she knows they only want to take him off the hands of LF and raise him among themselves, what does she fear, why is the title more important than the boy?

What? Why is the boy important at all?

She insist that Robert must have sweetsleep for the decline or he will not be able to make it down, he could have a fit and fall off the mountain and thus she follows LF's instructions that Robert must seem healthier than he is, when the lords of the Vale are watching. She knows there is a safer alternative, milk of the poppy,

Safer for who?

but she knows that is not what Petyr would have ordered. In the end she goes with the sweetsleep as Petyr would have wanted. I believe Sansa does not want Petyr in danger, but I think it is for her own safety first, he has made her think that if she is revealed she would be taken to Cercei and probably be killed (which could be right of course but it doesn't rhyme well with his plan to unveil her at the wedding with Harry the Heir).

That's true. There's also no reason she should care about Robert Arryn.

Problem is, even if Sansa is not completely aware of the acute danger with sweetsleep, LF surely is. And we hear from the waif in the house of black and white that three pinches means a never ending sleep.

Its not acute. It builds up over time. by definition that's not acute.

"Sweetsleep is the gentlest of poisons," the waif told her, as she was grinding some with mortar and pestle. "A few grains will slow a pounding heart and stop a hand from shaking, and make a man feel calm and strong. A pinch will grant a night of deep and dreamless sleep. Three pinches will produce that sleep that does not end."

So the pinch Robert had a while back, the one last night or a day ago, plus the one for the ride down the mountain, and the one he will get at the feast, taking into account how small he is and that he doesn't hardly eat anything, I think Sweetrobin is done for. With the help of Sansa, aware or not. I hope not but there we are.

nah, that's if taken all at once. It'll take years for the toxins to build up enough for Robert Arryn to die from the sweet sleep. But he'll probably died from something else before that anyway.

Besides the sweetsleep, we know that milk of the poppy is addictive, and causes headaches, which Robert complains about. Robert is given three different kinds of sedatives, milk of the poppy, dreamwine and sweetsleep. All such sedatives can cause withdrawal effects, e.g. hyperventilation resulting in epileptic fits. And LF is no n00b at poisons right?

oh maybe. mostly I think petyr just wants him to sit down and shut the fuck up and be lucid for presentation from time to time.

[YUNG LYANNA]

Littlefinger is a diabolical genius, & yes, he is fully capable of anticipating how others will act/react in certain situations and has never failed to manipulate people and circumstances to his advantage. despite that, I still believe that it is possible that any of the various pawns within his machinations could at some point, react in a way that even he could not expect... that's all i'm saying. :dunno:

[Lord Littlefinger's Lash]

Littlefinger is a diabolical genius, & yes, he is fully capable of anticipating how others will act/react in certain situations and has never failed to manipulate people and circumstances to his advantage. despite that, I still believe that it is possible that any of the various pawns within his machinations could at some point, react in a way that even he could not expect... that's all i'm saying. :dunno:

of course they can. Its just that the problems with a Harry + Sansa marriage obvious before hand. And, no being able predict them is not the same thing a providing them with the mean to destroy you. Part of the reason not trust anyone is because you can't be certain of your ability to predict other people's actions. If you could be certain, then you trust whoever you wanted, because you'd always knwo what they were going to do.

[Raksha the Demon]

Sansa's dialogue with the maester and her own thoughts on the matter are troubling; to me they shows that Sansa is in danger of moral corruption from Littlefinger, but has not yet crossed the line.

There's no indication that she believes Robert's life is in danger, no indication that Sansa knows that three pinches of sweetsleep will kill someone. Her thought about what is best for Lord Arryn not necessarily being best for the boy also does not mean that Sansa understands that Robert is being tranquilized to the point of killing him; since being poisoned/killed is definitely not 'best' for Lord Arryn - and Robert is Lord Arryn.

It could be that Petyr had told Sansa that the maester was a hypochondriac who couldn't see the necessity of presenting Lord Arryn awake to his Vale-lords.

Also, if little Lord Arryn is unconscious for days when they descend the Eyrie; the Vale-lords might get testy, remove the boy from Littlefinger and evict Littlefinger from his Lord Protectorship; and then who will protect Sansa from arrest by Cersei's agents for kingslaying? Sansa might be stopping herself from questioning Littlefinger's designs, sub-consciously or otherwise.

[Lord Littlefinger's Lash]

Sansa's dialogue with the maester and her own thoughts on the matter are troubling; to me they shows that Sansa is in danger of moral corruption from Littlefinger, but has not yet crossed the line.

What is this moral corruption, you speak of? is it a wasting sickness like the pale mare? How much danger is she in?

There's no indication that she believes Robert's life is in danger, no indication that Sansa knows that three pinches of sweetsleep will kill someone. Her thought about what is best for Lord Arryn not necessarily being best for the boy also does not mean that Sansa understands that Robert is being tranquilized to the point of killing him; since being poisoned/killed is definitely not 'best' for Lord Arryn - and Robert is Lord Arryn.

There's no indication that he is being tranquilized to the point of being killed.

It could be that Petyr had told Sansa that the maester was a hypochondriac who couldn't see the necessity of presenting Lord Arryn awake to his Vale-lords.

Also, if little Lord Arryn is unconscious for days when they descend the Eyrie; the Vale-lords might get testy, remove the boy from Littlefinger and evict Littlefinger from his Lord Protectorship; and then who will protect Sansa from arrest by Cersei's agents for kingslaying? Sansa might be stopping herself from questioning Littlefinger's designs, sub-consciously or otherwise.

[Sand Snake No. 9]

It seems to me that it would be in Littlefinger's best interests to keep Sweetrobin alive as long as possible because if he dies the Vale will no longer need a Lord Protector, it will have Harry who, I believe, has reached his majority.

AFAIC, the smartest, combined with luckiest, thing that LF has done is to get control of the Vale (lucky because he couldn't have planned Lysa's marriage to Arryn) and hole up there while all hell breaks loose in the rest of Westeros. The other side of that coin is that the Vale's relative isolation may make it hard for him to keep informed and manage his other schemes. Alas, no internet or Blackberries in ASOIAF.

Littlefinger may have an unknown wildcard in his pack. He hired Ser Shadrich, the Mad Mouse as one of his guards, and Ser Shadrich was on the hunt for Sansa to he could turn her into Cersei and collect the reward. I'm willing to bet that Shadrich knows who "Alayne" is (I also think that some of the Lord Declarants, as well as Randa Royce, have some idea who she is) and that he'll do something . . . although how he'd get Sansa out of the fortress and back to King's Landing in Winter is a mystery to me.

[Fire Eater]

Littlefinger may have an unknown wildcard in his pack. He hired Ser Shadrich, the Mad Mouse as one of his guards, and Ser Shadrich was on the hunt for Sansa to he could turn her into Cersei and collect the reward. I'm willing to bet that Shadrich knows who "Alayne" is (I also think that some of the Lord Declarants, as well as Randa Royce, have some idea who she is) and that he'll do something . . . although how he'd get Sansa out of the fortress and back to King's Landing in Winter is a mystery to me.

GRRM showing fate's role in shattering plans has yet to reach Littlefinger, Shardich isn't the only wildcard, so is Sansa. If Sansa learns that he was behind the war and her father's beheading, who knows what she'll do.

As for the Mad Mouse, I think he could send a letter to King's Landing informing Cersei of this. She could send a small force of men to bring back Sansa alive, or just her head.

[jarl the climber]

GRRM showing fate's role in shattering plans has ye to reach Littlefinger yet, Shardich isn't the only wildcard, so is Sansa. If Sansa learns that he was behind the war and her father's beheading, who knows what she'll do.

As for the Mad Mouse, I think he could send a letter to King's Landing informing Cersei of this. She could send a small force of men to bring back Sansa alive, or just her head.

Its not clear who Shadrich is working for. When he was talking to Brienne he mentioned Varys specificaly of course this was before Varys disappeared but we can't rule out that Cersei/Qyburn is his employer. Varys might have other plans for Sansa besides a spike and a wall. If Sansa can offer him enough gold or land somehow he might end up working for her. IMO it seems more likely that Varys would think to send an agent to the Vale to keep an eye on his old and beloved colleague Petyr.

[Lord Littlefinger's Lash]

It seems to me that it would be in Littlefinger's best interests to keep Sweetrobin alive as long as possible because if he dies the Vale will no longer need a Lord Protector, it will have Harry who, I believe, has reached his majority.

AFAIC, the smartest, combined with luckiest, thing that LF has done is to get control of the Vale (lucky because he couldn't have planned Lysa's marriage to Arryn) and hole up there while all hell breaks loose in the rest of Westeros. The other side of that coin is that the Vale's relative isolation may make it hard for him to keep informed and manage his other schemes. Alas, no internet or Blackberries in ASOIAF.

That's true. Though Shadrich, merely wants money. I don't think its clear he knows who she is. He could I suppose, be as far as we know he's never actually seen her. Its one thing to recognize a general description, which includes being accompanied by a fool.

Littlefinger may have an unknown wildcard in his pack. He hired Ser Shadrich, the Mad Mouse as one of his guards, and Ser Shadrich was on the hunt for Sansa to he could turn her into Cersei and collect the reward. I'm willing to bet that Shadrich knows who "Alayne" is (I also think that some of the Lord Declarants, as well as Randa Royce, have some idea who she is) and that he'll do something . . . although how he'd get Sansa out of the fortress and back to King's Landing in Winter is a mystery to me.

I don't know how Randa Royce would know who she is. To be fair, I don't know how anyone proves who they are in that day and age. Which is demonstrated by Crowfood not being able to tell Jeyne Poole from Arya.

[Lord Littlefinger's Lash]

GRRM showing fate's role in shattering plans has ye to reach Littlefinger yet, Shardich isn't the only wildcard, so is Sansa. If Sansa learns that he was behind the war and her father's beheading, who knows what she'll do.

As for the Mad Mouse, I think he could send a letter to King's Landing informing Cersei of this. She could send a small force of men to bring back Sansa alive, or just her head.

He wasn't. Tywin Lannister and Cersei/Joffrey were. And I don't think that's really. I think you're thinking of plans in too conventional of a way. Which is why I included that quote about the Xanatos Gambit. I think Petyr was perfectly willing to work with Ned. And thought that he could convince Ned of the sensible course of action. Only when Ned refused to see reason, did an alternative path to victory become engaged. Surely, Petyr never thought Robb Stark would win the allegiance of the Twins nor be so successful in battle. But of course, he couldn't know Catelyn would steal Tyrion, ride to the Vale and deliver a military genius to aid Robb Stark's cause.

[jarl the climber]

That's true. Though Shadrich, merely wants money. I don't think its clear he knows who she is. He could I suppose, be as far as we know he's never actually seen her. Its one thing to recognize a general description, which includes being accompanied by a fool.

I don't know how Randa Royce would know who she is. To be fair, I don't know how anyone proves who they are in that day and age. Which is demonstrated by Crowfood not being able to tell Jeyne Poole from Arya.

if his true master is Varys he would know of her fondness for lemoncakes and whatever other information Varys could supply him about her. Allayne isn't on the radar screen even in the Vale but most of the household of the Eyrie suspects the truth probaly. Randa makes a comment about Alaynes rosy cheeks and blue eyes and it might be a clever reference to the Tully colors, the Royces did meet Cat in the first book and they did know Lysa, so they are familiar with the Tullys. Crowfood only has one eye and the other one could probaly use a monocle. Your talking about a guy who is probaly legaly blind.

[Lord Littlefinger's Lash]

if his true master is Varys he would know of her fondness for lemoncakes and whatever other information Varys could supply him about her. Allayne isn't on the radar screen even in the Vale but most of the household of the Eyrie suspects the truth probaly

there no actual evidence of this though, right? you're saying that, right?

Randa makes a comment about Alaynes rosy cheeks and blue eyes and it might be a clever reference to the Tully colors, the Royces did meet Cat in the first book and they did know Lysa, so they are familiar with the Tullys. Crowfood only has one eye and the other one could probaly use a monocle. Your talking about a guy who is probaly legaly blind.

I suppose. Its possible. Randa seems like a smart girl. Though Petyr is aware of her cleverness. And warns Sansa of it. I would imagine if he were concerned, Randa would have already joined the ranks of the dearly departed.

Oh come on. I would call a Varys Shadrich connection a stretch. but that would be an insult to stretching.

[jarl the climber]

there no actual evidence of this though, right? you're saying that, right?

I suppose. Its possible. Randa seems like a smart girl. Though Petyr is aware of her cleverness. And warns Sansa of it. I would imagine if he were concerned, Randa would have already joined the ranks of the dearly departed.

Oh come on. I would call a Varys Shadrich connection a stretch. but that would be an insult to stretching.

I have an easier time beleiving that Varys is smart enough to spy on Petyr using the same method he did with the Kettlebacks than Cersei getting delivered another gift horse. Shadrich specifically said that Varys was offering good coin, this was before his disappearance was known about though. Varys also might have known that Jamie was sending Brienne on some sort of mission, she did question people in the city about Sansa and Varys is a more astute observer than the Queen.

[jarl the climber]

My second theory on this is that the Kettlebacks Father intorduced these men to Petyr so they could seize Sansa and he would return her to the city in return for pardons of his sons, he does know that she is Sansa but we don't if Oswell has found out about their arrest yet.