Renly's worth and use?

[Castel]

Just so. Just so.

No, but he's the first younger sibling to shamelessly piss up the succession law in recent years. And quite publicly (see below) glorify doing so. That might not be a big deal to the people in here who seem to think Renly was the Messiah of Westeros, but to some of us... well. It is a dangerous precedent to set.

"Why the oldest son, and not the best-fitted?"

Who decides who's the "best-fitted"? How does Renly plan on curbing the hatred and seething bitterness bound to entail when a royal child is passed over for their kid sibling, because... what? Someone else decided that the younger one would make a better king? That's a can of worms just waiting to be opened.

This has already happened. The Dance of Dragons was about this very thing. Aegon the Unlikely came to power because of this and guess what? Nothing happened. That can of worms has already been opened.This is always an issue. The thing is though, like all regimes it is kept in place by force, if Renly is not an idiot like Robert and makes his heir the strongest man then this will not be an issue.

You seem to think that people never worry about these things and that the only reason it would ever happen is because Renly reminded them that it's a possibility. No. People don't try to usurp lord's seats because the consequences are severe and if they want to do so they're probably on the back foot anyway. People aren't going to suddenly rise up because most likely they can't.The same goes for his heirs.

[jblair]

Except for when he let his own men get injured fighting a tourney in the middle of a war...

and dragging a bunch of useless junk along with his army...

and racing four days ahead of his supply train....

and not bringing 75% of his army with him to Storm's End, giving Stannis much more reasonable odds...

and not letting the one guy in his army with a decent military record, Tarly, command anything in the actual battle, giving the job to the completely inexperienced Ser Loras...

and holding the battle at sunrise, forcing his men to fight half blind...

and not simply supporting his brother, like Stannis did for Robert....

Look, Renly had absolutely no need for speed - in fact it was the opposite. As he took his time and upped the pageantry of the grand Stormlands-Highgarden alliance, his perception as potential king rose. His claim was based on perception as much as military might - he had both in spades. Meanwhile his enemies continued to bleed each other as he continued his inevitable march to KL. Then Stannis went to Storm's End. Renly busted ass, with a more-than-adequate force. Stannis was toast barring the shadow-baby, supply lines or no. And once that battle was won (and Stannis certainly held no illusions about his success), KL waited like a ripe...peach.

And for the thousandth time, Stannis was operating on a scarcely-believable claim with no proof and next-to-zero popular support. Given the events as they were, Stannis would never have been King, even if he had taken KL. The other Houses would not have supported him, and would have considered him a kinslayer (as indeed he became later, at least indirectly).

[jblair]

Just so. Just so.

No, but he's the first younger sibling to shamelessly piss up the succession law in recent years. And quite publicly (see below) glorify doing so. That might not be a big deal to the people in here who seem to think Renly was the Messiah of Westeros, but to some of us... well. It is a dangerous precedent to set.

"Why the oldest son, and not the best-fitted?"

Who decides who's the "best-fitted"? How does Renly plan on curbing the hatred and seething bitterness bound to entail when a royal child is passed over for their kid sibling, because... what? Someone else decided that the younger one would make a better king? That's a can of worms just waiting to be opened.

Haha. Certainly you recognize that these are not exactly normal times. It's not as though Westeros often goes through a period in which the legitimate heirs are found to be bastards owing to twincest. And the supposed rightful heir enjoys zero popular support and has a miniscule army. Considering this happens on the heels of a gigantic revolution, I find it understandable that the "rules" aren't exactly clear.

Even if Renly had declared for Stannis, that would only have sped up the Lannister-Highgarden alliance, and the SL alone could not possibly contend with that. After all, the SL/HG alliance was only possible because -a- Renly and Loras were intimate, -b- Renly was beloved by everyone (which is lost if he pulls for Stannis), and -c- Highgarden is ready for a power grab (which fails if already-married Stannis assumes the kingship).

The only way it would have worked would have been if Ned had shown himself to be so staggeringly inept in the political arena - Renly was right to get the hell out of KL, based on Ned's oblivious behavior to current events.

[Batman]

Wrong and Wrong. So wrong. I love how you say AERYS never had the "stones" to fight Tywin (who was not even his enemy), when it was Tywin who used the appalling and underhanded methods (betrayal, trickery, subversion of the KG, assassination, killing children). That is a weird reading, dude.

As for the second part, Renly made a grand total of ZERO mistakes. He was set to sweep the board handily until sorcery came into play...and no one in Westeros has a "sorcery contingency plan," including Tywin.

Show a thousand men a piece of information and they could well give you a thousand different interpretations.

It takes a certain courage for a man to do all of the things Tywin did. Their is bravery in those acts, sick, depraved and cruel beyond measure but they were never done without reason behind them. Normal men dont have it in them to do that and in turn they dont have it in them to rule Westeros. One of the reasons Ned died.

Renly made the mistake of trying to take in the Iron Throne in the first place and that was just for starters

[Sephiran]

So, popularity= quality? This is BS. Tyrion was hated by the smallfolk, yet he was clearly an excellent Hand.

Renly was a knight of summer. There's no chance in hell of him being a decent King in time of difficulty. Can you imagine him leading Westeros against the Others? Hah.

For kings, popularity = quality.

For Hands, no.

[Castel]

Renly made the mistake of trying to take in the Iron Throne in the first place and that was just for starters

Except this wasn't a mistake. Accounting for your enemies and making a decision based on that =/= a mistake.

[Batman]

Except this wasn't a mistake. Accounting for your enemies and making a decision based on that =/= a mistake.

How can you not see that as a mistake, he undercut his brother and died for it. On top of that his heirs, assuming he ever had any would just end up fighting one another for power the same way their father did for their uncle. The smart thing to do would be to get as many concessions from Stannis as possible and support the rightful heir. He would have been rich and powerful and alive and he would not have needed to deal with all the shit that goes with being king. 100,000 men lead by Stannis would have been unstoppable, instead he chanced his arm against better men (and women).

[Castel]

How can you not see that as a mistake, he undercut his brother and died for it. On top of that his heirs, assuming he ever had any would just end up fighting one another for power the same way their father did for their uncle.

I've provided reasons why this wouldn't happen as well as examples of similar scenarios NOT leading to the sort of infighting you're talking about.

He died because of a completely unpredictable reason. That's like claiming that it's a mistake to have a barbecue if a meteor suddenly crushes you while you're outside. He made a good decision based on the information he had, it was not that worse than gambling that Stannis wouldn't be smacked in the back by the Tyrells or Lannisters.

The smart thing to do would be to get as many concessions from Stannis as possible and support the rightful heir. He would have been rich and powerful and alive and he would not have needed to deal with all the shit that goes with being king. 100,000 men lead by Stannis would have been unstoppable, instead he chanced his arm against better men (and women).

No. There wouldn't have been a 100,000 men because the Tyrells only joined to help Renly, who knows how they would have felt with Stannis on his way to the throne?

Against "better men" What does that mean? He had more men, he was more loved, "better" however you mean it, seems to have meant nothing.

[Batman]

I've provided reasons why this wouldn't happen as well as examples of similar scenarios NOT leading to the sort of infighting you're talking about.

He died because of a completely unpredictable reason. That's like claiming that it's a mistake to have a barbecue if a meteor suddenly crushes you while you're outside. He made a good decision based on the information he had, it was not that worse than gambling that Stannis wouldn't be smacked in the back by the Tyrells or Lannisters.

No. There wouldn't have been a 100,000 men because the Tyrells only joined to help Renly, who knows how they would have felt with Stannis on his way to the throne?

Against "better men" What does that mean? He had more men, he was more loved, "better" however you mean it, seems to have meant nothing.

Fools love a fool, I tend to agree with Olenna's assesment of Renly "he knew how to dress, he knew how to smile and he knew how to bath and somehow he got it in his head that that made him worthy to be king". Mace is an idiot who would do whatever Loras believed was best.

Wars are won with whatever tools the combatants had at their disposal. Renly is no less dead because he could not have seen Melisandre coming. Jaime was still defeated despite the fact he made the best decision based on the information he had.

Your analogy is false because Renly wasnt headed into something as simple as a BBQ he was going to war. It was more like a man drag racing down an empty street and then being hit by a car he did not see coming. Just because he didnt see it coming doesnt mean it wasnt his fault. He went to war and war always carries the risk of death it doesnt matter how he died. He took a risk and it didnt pay off.

[Castel]

Fools love a fool, I tend to agree with Olenna's assesment of Renly "he knew how to dress, he knew how to smile and he knew how to bath and somehow he got it in his head that that made him worthy to be king". Mace is an idiot who would do whatever Loras believed was best.

A- What are you basing this on.

B- Would Loras want to back Stannis.

The first part of your statement kinda seems like a non sequitur.

Wars are won with whatever tools the combatants had at their disposal. Renly is no less dead because he could not have seen Melisandre coming. Jaime was still defeated despite the fact he made the best decision based on the information he had.

True. But it's like claiming that the USA going to war with a Central African village was a mistake because they turned out to own dragons that spat out ICBMs all of a sudden. No one is arguing about him being dead, I'm pointing out that as it stood he was in a great position and could not have predicted that he would have to face a shadowbaby. It's literally beyond the realm of possibility.

Your analogy is false because Renly wasnt headed into something as simple as a BBQ he was going to war. It was more like a man drag racing down an empty street and then being hit by a car he did not see coming. Just because he didnt see it coming doesnt mean it wasnt his fault. He went to war and war always carries the risk of death it doesnt matter how he died. He took a risk and it didnt pay off.

True, my analogy is a bit flawed. But I don't think I can overstate just how fucking unlikely it was for Melisandre to have powers. It's not even something you can put a figure on. It's ridiculous. There's no way for this to have been factored into any discussions.

Renly died because of his own actions. The problem is that there is no way to reasonably predict that these action would lead to the conclusion that they did. He did not use poor reasoning or faulty logic, magic simply fell on him, it was through no fault of his own that he lost.

[Batman]

A- What are you basing this on.

B- Would Loras want to back Stannis.

The first part of your statement kinda seems like a non sequitur.

True, my analogy is a bit flawed. But I don't think I can overstate just how fucking unlikely it was for Melisandre to have powers. It's not even something you can put a figure on. It's ridiculous. There's no way for this to have been factored into any discussions.

Renly died because of his own actions. The problem is that there is no way to reasonably predict that these action would lead to the conclusion that they did. He did not use poor reasoning or faulty logic, magic simply fell on him, it was through no fault of his own that he lost.

1 -I was saying that in a scenario where Renly followed Stannis, then Loras would follow Renly. Littlefinger has already stated that Loras is Maces favourite. Olenna argued against joining the war and Loras for it. Every character in the series has stated that Mace is an idiot, even his own mother.

2 - I both agree and disagree with what your saying. I agree Renly is not at fault for not knowing of Melisandres power. I disagree that it was through no fault of his own that he lost. He challenged Stannis, and thereby brought his own doom down upon him.

I'll throw another analogy out there. If I bet my life savings at poker with pocket aces then I am still at fault if my opponent has a straight flush. I had no way of knowing that he had a straight flush but it is still my fault. Magic may be rare but it is acknowledged by many characters.

[FatCatOberyn]

Renly would likely have been loved, but he'd have been a figure for the people to like while better men ran the country. Sort of like Baelor, just without the religious fervor. Although we can't really tell whether or not the commoners loved Renly, the size of his army only meant that the nobility favored him, probably meaning that he would have been a weak king.

[Castel]

1 -I was saying that in a scenario where Renly followed Stannis, then Loras would follow Renly. Littlefinger has already stated that Loras is Maces favourite. Olenna argued against joining the war and Loras for it. Every character in the series has stated that Mace is an idiot, even his own mother.

Loras arguing for a path and Mace happening to choose it does not make Mace a thrall to his son. Mace may be an idiot, which is doubtful imo, but he is very clearly not with Stannis because there's a reason for him not to be with Stannis; he's a cold unforgiving arsehole.

2 - I both agree and disagree with what your saying. I agree Renly is not at fault for not knowing of Melisandres power. I disagree that it was through no fault of his own that he lost. He challenged Stannis, and thereby brought his own doom down upon him.

The problem is here that you're calling something a mistake or error of judgement when the thing that made his plan fail could not be factored in any rational calculation.

I'll throw another analogy out there. If I bet my life savings at poker with pocket aces then I am still at fault if my opponent has a straight flush. I had no way of knowing that he had a straight flush but it is still my fault. Magic may be rare but it is acknowledged by many characters.

A problem with analogies is revealing itself here. In your analogy a game of chance is being played that hides capabilities of your opponent. Renly isn't in a random game, he has such superiority that failure can only come by a mistake on his part, there's never been any action during warfare in the entire series that can make up for the disparity. There's an element of randomness in cards; you can't tell what you're opponent may get, Renly had already accounted for Stannis.

Magic is acknowledged in a pseudo-folky way, the only time that ACTIVE magic is even spoken about is after Renly died. That was no doubt of little use to him. It's kinda like... belief in Zeus nowadays, sure somebody somewhere can claim that Zeus struck down his doctor, but unless there's proof or you see it with your own eyes you're not going to quit med school.

Renly would likely have been loved, but he'd have been a figure for the people to like while better men ran the country. Sort of like Baelor, just without the religious fervor. Although we can't really tell whether or not the commoners loved Renly, the size of his army only meant that the nobility favored him, probably meaning that he would have been a weak king.

What are we basing this on? The two people that claim that Renly was going to be a weak king are people that haven't see Renly for about a decade. Really, that blacksmith and Cressen aren't really the best sources. And honestly, neither is Olenna. She was in Lannister territory I'm not sure what else she would say. Renly was an unknown quantity, that much is true, but the flip side of that is that no one saw what he was willing and capable of doing.

As for the nobility favoring him means he would be weak... I'm not sure I follow.

[FatCatOberyn]

What are we basing this on? The two people that claim that Renly was going to be a weak king are people that haven't see Renly for about a decade. Really, that blacksmith and Cressen aren't really the best sources. And honestly, neither is Olenna. She was in Lannister territory I'm not sure what else she would say. Renly was an unknown quantity, that much is true, but the flip side of that is that no one saw what he was willing and capable of doing.

As for the nobility favoring him means he would be weak... I'm not sure I follow.

Historically, nobles have always favored pretenders who would lower crown authority, thus giving them more power.

[Castel]

Historically, nobles have always favored pretenders who would lower crown authority, thus giving them more power.

Dude, I don't think that yo can find a more decentralised government than the one in Westeros. I'm not sure how Renly could do any worse.

Kings in Westeros only seemed to interfere when they were personally threatened iirc.

[Batman]

Loras arguing for a path and Mace happening to choose it does not make Mace a thrall to his son. Mace may be an idiot, which is doubtful imo, but he is very clearly not with Stannis because there's a reason for him not to be with Stannis; he's a cold unforgiving arsehole.

A problem with analogies is revealing itself here. In your analogy a game of chance is being played that hides capabilities of your opponent. Renly isn't in a random game, he has such superiority that failure can only come by a mistake on his part, there's never been any action during warfare in the entire series that can make up for the disparity. There's an element of randomness in cards; you can't tell what you're opponent may get, Renly had already accounted for Stannis.

1 - What do you mean Mace is not an idiot? Olenna, Tywin and Kevan have all said as much. Tywin and Kevan will always give an opponent their due respect and Olenna is his mother! If your mother calls you an oaf for all the world to see, then you must be pretty fucked. Olenna is not cruel for the sake of it, she acknowledges Willas has no lack of wits and is very unlike his father. Loras is a case of having daddy wrapped around his little finger, so said (ironically) Littlefinger. Children can make their parents do almost anything they want. Mace wanted his son to be a great knight and in his eyes Loras is the only one who has achieved that. For that reason he holds the old mans ear.

Mace has been played by his family so far all the way how can you doubt it? Loras backed Renly as king despite it being treason and Mace followed. Olenna didnt want Willas to marry Cersei and Mace changed his mind on the match. The man is practically lead by the hand by the more intelligent members of his family.

2 - Of course war is a random game, there are so many factors that are completely out of your control. In an instant things can change for the better or the worse. One battle, one tactical error, one slight to an ally can change the whole complexion of things. This is true in the real world and even more so in the ASOIAF universe. If Littlefinger has proved anything its that the best laid plans can be destroyed in a moment. The fact that there are so many players adds to the randomness.

[Talleyrand]

Although we can't really tell whether or not the commoners loved Renly, the size of his army only meant that the nobility favored him, probably meaning that he would have been a weak king.

In GoT Renly gets the biggest cheer from the commons as he rides onto the tourney field and when he is dismounted by the Hound a mini riot threatens to break out until Renly gets back to his feet and calms them down. The people loved him.

And again Davos was the only Stormlord not to follow Renly in his rebellion, and he is resolutely Stannis' man. Robert, Hoster and Jon all had Royalists among their bannermen.

[Winterfell is Burning]

This has already happened. The Dance of Dragons was about this very thing. Aegon the Unlikely came to power because of this and guess what? Nothing happened. That can of worms has already been opened.This is always an issue. The thing is though, like all regimes it is kept in place by force, if Renly is not an idiot like Robert and makes his heir the strongest man then this will not be an issue.

No, the Dance of the Dragons was about the appointed heir of the King (his daughter) fighting the heir by law (his son). And Aegon V had nothing to do with it, the problem is that there were no other realistic heirs, except Aemon, that turned it down.

[David Selig]

No, the Dance of the Dragons was about the appointed heir of the King (his daughter) fighting the heir by law (his son). And Aegon IV had nothing to do with it.

IIRC they changed the law after that, before Rhaenyra was the heir according to the law.

[Castel]

No, the Dance of the Dragons was about the appointed heir of the King (his daughter) fighting the heir by law (his son). And Aegon IV had nothing to do with it.

The point is that the rightful heir has been skipped over plenty of times and nothing has come of it. In fact as it stood at that point the king's eldest daughter was supposed to inherit by law. She lost. The realm moved on. Aegon came to power because of a Great Council skipping over people with better claims (hence the nickname "the Unlikely"). The realm moved on.