[spoilers] The North at the end of aDwD and the start of aWoW. Summary/continuance of the Northern Lords Conspiracy, Hooded Man, Pink Letter Threads.

[fassreiter]

So reading through some of these posts it dawned on me. Those bringing up the fact that if Jon finds out Arya is fake that the Bolton's cover is blown...neither of the Boltons could have written the letter if this is true....because if Arya was at the wall then Jon would absolutely know she is a fake immediately. The letter had to have been a ploy to get Jon to march towards WF.

Well, why can't the Boltons have written the letter then? They have always known that Jon would recognize his sister (and his not-sister). This is why they can demand Ramsay's 'bride' back from him in the first place: Why should Jon care about Jeyne (or Theon)? They have to hope that he doesn't, and that he would prefer to be Lord Commander of the NW. This is the choice they give him via the pink letter. They couldn't have expected him to get all worked up and gather an army, leave the NW and go to war. It's even ironic, because if Boltons had not written the letter, nothing would have happened, probably. Jon prepares for war because he doesn't know it's not Arya who escaped - if he would have known what Bolton thought he knew, Bolton wouldn't be in any danger of being attacked. But because fake-Arya never reached the Wall in time, Boltons don't know that Jon doesn't know, so they will get their asses kicked anyway. This is my reading, at least. If it wasn't for the Mance Rayder part of the letter, I would consider all of this a very nice piece of writing.

[By the Old Gods Not theNew]

I think we are disagreeing on the timeline here. I think more than three days have passed since Theon's escape and the arrival of the letter at Castle Black, but I am not sure. Could you please explain your reasoning the timeline again, concerning the conncection to the Wall? Most likely there were clues I didn't see, I am not good at piecing together GRRM's chronology. Thank you!

I have do some work on this to be honest (im going to reread Jon's POV and compare them to Asha's and Theon's to create a parallel time line of events taking place at the Wall, in Stannis's campaign/march, and the Bolton's efforts to consolidate their hold on the North). My basic and likely incorrect reasoning is based on the fact that Theon and Jeyne escaped presumable Three days before the Theon sample chapter, yet in between the Theon escape in aDwD and the Theon sample chapter in aWoW, the letter arrives at Castle Black. Like i said im probably wrong this is too easy an explanation, and the Asha/Sacrifice chapter the night theon is delivered to Stannis takes place before Jon's final POV in aDwD where he receives the Pink Letter so it's quite possible it happens after the Theon sample chapter in aWoW. That would be kind of annoying just because the back and forth in time would make it even more difficult to keep track of the chronology.

sorry if that was convoluted. I'll post something that teases out the parallel timelines of the various norther POV's.

[Tagganaro]

While I do love this grand Northern Conspiracy speculation, I have to wonder where and if Mance would fit into this at all. I could certainly understand the part where he allies with Manderly- White Harbor being further away from the Wall would not harbor the same suspicion and outright hatred of wildlings as other Northern Lords, and thus maybe some kind of arrangement could be come to (which furthers the idea that Mance met Manderley before arriving at Winterfell and Manderley purposely arrived for the wedding without a singer so Mance could get in).

However, I struggle with the idea that other Northern Lords would ever ally with Mance. Umbers in particular have a very visceral hatred for wildlings, who have stolen Umber women from their lands. It's even part of Crowfood's deal to join Stannis. Stannis says:

"Half of them, and only if I meet this Crowfood's price," said Stannis, in an irritated tone. "He wants Mance Rayder's skull for a drinking cup, and he wants a pardon for his brother, who has ridden south to join Bolton."

I'm not sure I could ever imagine some kind of deal being worked out that involved both wildlings and the Umbers- I'd like to think that hatred for the Boltons would outweigh hatred for wildlings, but I'm not sure that's the case as it pertains to the Umbers. There's always the chance, as has been speculated on other threads, that one of the spear wives Mance brought to Winterfell is this missing Umber girl, as a sort of peace offering. But I'm not sure this would really soothe over the Umbers' anger: This would be the same as a kidnapper returning after 20 odd years with the daughter and being like "We're all cool, right? No problem with me?"

[By the Old Gods Not theNew]

i get what your saying, about the kidnapper analogy. however Mance has the benefit of arguing that he didn't take her, and was considerate enough to see that she was brought back. A more appropriate analogy would involve someone holding a grudge against an entire group of people because they were wronged by one of them even though others have tried to make amens for the initial transgression.

[Ragnorak]

While I do love this grand Northern Conspiracy speculation, I have to wonder where and if Mance would fit into this at all. I could certainly understand the part where he allies with Manderly- White Harbor being further away from the Wall would not harbor the same suspicion and outright hatred of wildlings as other Northern Lords, and thus maybe some kind of arrangement could be come to (which furthers the idea that Mance met Manderley before arriving at Winterfell and Manderley purposely arrived for the wedding without a singer so Mance could get in).

However, I struggle with the idea that other Northern Lords would ever ally with Mance. Umbers in particular have a very visceral hatred for wildlings, who have stolen Umber women from their lands. It's even part of Crowfood's deal to join Stannis. Stannis says:

I'm not sure I could ever imagine some kind of deal being worked out that involved both wildlings and the Umbers- I'd like to think that hatred for the Boltons would outweigh hatred for wildlings, but I'm not sure that's the case as it pertains to the Umbers. There's always the chance, as has been speculated on other threads, that one of the spear wives Mance brought to Winterfell is this missing Umber girl, as a sort of peace offering. But I'm not sure this would really soothe over the Umbers' anger: This would be the same as a kidnapper returning after 20 odd years with the daughter and being like "We're all cool, right? No problem with me?"

While it certainly is believable that Umber would just flat out hate the Wildlings there are other possibilities. These spearwives might be Northern girls taken on raids. They show a rather vehement Stark loyalty. Lord Eddard seems a more personal connection than House Stark's words.

Rowan gave him a hard look. “You have no right to mouth Lord Eddard’s words. Not you. Not ever. After what you did—”

I'm reminded of Ygritte ignoring Rattleshirt and going where she damn well pleased. If one of these spearwives is an Umber girl I suspect she would approach her father on her own rather than Mance doing so as a peace gesture. I can even see her telling her father that Yellow Dick is an example of what happens to men who mistreat a woman North of the Wall. The idea that she chose her fate and chose to follow Mance on this mission would have far more sway over Umber than Mance offering to "return" her. These are the Free Folk and I can see his daughter emphasizing that point. When your long lost daughter shows up as part of a pro-Stark covert operation and asks if you're man enough to back her up are you going to tell her that you'd rather side with the Freys? We are talking about the Umbers here. He may just have found out that he has grandchildren or even that there are White Walkers and zombie hordes preparing to invade. Who knows?

Both Jon and Bran are struck by the awe inspiring beauty North of the Wall. It seems to have a certain pull on those people who consider themselves "of the North." I have no idea what Umber's daughter's circumstances were but I just imagine some Wildling raider stealing Arya while she is betrothed to a Frey and her being rather fond of that alternative and the Free Folk lifestyle. If Umber's daughter did become a spearwife the Arya example is probably somewhat close to the truth.

[By the Old Gods Not theNew]

snip

i agree w/ all of the above. and every where that i write in terms of Mance bringing the spearwives to be exchanged it is both offensive (it's really sexist the spearwives have their own agency and can do as they damn well please) and flat out wrong based on what we know about wildling culture, every such passage should read like this one. as always great work.

[Black Wolf Smith]

For those who don't know, By the Old Gods Not the New, has gone thur 3 different threads and put all that was being talked about and where they were headed into this giant thread. Hats off to you.

I saw some said something Tze post. Is this the old one from the Inside and outside WF or a newer one. If it is a new one, please tell me where to find it. When she speaks, all she listen.

For the Pink letter, I really don't know who. I can only see either being

Ramsey, after finding out about Mance, having caught one of the spearwives (who I more and more believing is stolen daughters of Northern Families maybe not the Lords themselves) is trying to goat Jon in to coming to him. I don't think he did this with Roose knowledge. I also think that the battle is over and they lost, and while running north sent it.

Or Stannis, who did not know where the bird would go, so he sent it hoping it would either go to NW, for help, or to WF where if they thought he was dead, it might make them relax in hopes that they would making a mistake.

As to the Northern Conspiracy, Imo its more then one group.

I think that is lead by the Manderlys and at least some of the Umbers are working to get Rickon( and killed the 3 Freys) and a second group that lead by the Mormont women, and the other Umbers who want to make Jon King in the North per the will. . I believe that they are moving towards each other. I think that the Manderly has met with other groups at WF, and that Mormont women has met with mountain clans. The 3rd group of Mountain Clan and Wildlings may also be trying to work together.

For the HM I still think (and likely the only one) Raynald Westerling is my best guess.

If we take a aGoT as 1 year. If aCoK and aSoS as 1 year. If aFFC and aDwD as another year/ year and a half. He was wounded and made it to the river, and it would seem He likely got help from Greywatch. He has had a year to heal and get to WF (unlike Blackfish) He is likely getting help/working with HR. He would want to kill Bolton to avenge his "brother" but since he did not come in to Robb service till after Bran and Rickon, killing Theon would not be the most important thing to him.

The biggest thing against it being him, why would he come there? Well if he is working with HR then making contact with Manderly is something he would be doing. HR could be uniting all of the conspiractors together. I guess it makes it just as likely to be HR.

[FittleLinger]

While I do love this grand Northern Conspiracy speculation, I have to wonder where and if Mance would fit into this at all. I could certainly understand the part where he allies with Manderly- White Harbor being further away from the Wall would not harbor the same suspicion and outright hatred of wildlings as other Northern Lords, and thus maybe some kind of arrangement could be come to (which furthers the idea that Mance met Manderley before arriving at Winterfell and Manderley purposely arrived for the wedding without a singer so Mance could get in).

However, I struggle with the idea that other Northern Lords would ever ally with Mance. Umbers in particular have a very visceral hatred for wildlings, who have stolen Umber women from their lands. It's even part of Crowfood's deal to join Stannis. Stannis says:

I'm not sure I could ever imagine some kind of deal being worked out that involved both wildlings and the Umbers- I'd like to think that hatred for the Boltons would outweigh hatred for wildlings, but I'm not sure that's the case as it pertains to the Umbers. There's always the chance, as has been speculated on other threads, that one of the spear wives Mance brought to Winterfell is this missing Umber girl, as a sort of peace offering. But I'm not sure this would really soothe over the Umbers' anger: This would be the same as a kidnapper returning after 20 odd years with the daughter and being like "We're all cool, right? No problem with me?"

Others have told you some good stuff, but I would like to propose a simpler explanation not dismissing the other poster's of course).

Well yes, they do despise wildlings, but they are lords after all, they have led wars, and they know sometimes they have to sacrifice a grudge for the greater good, especially with the North forces so scarce after the war of the five kings.

And also, from Mance they probably know that now the wildlings are not the free folk that would raid and steal food and women, but they are now pretty much Lord Eddard's bastard's army. The only alive (half) Stark child, who is of age, has power - LC of the night's watch, an army, and his location is known.

[Mammothsbane]

So the entire North situation is probably my most anticipated in DwD. Anyway, the pink letter is quite interesting to me because of the wealth of knowledge it contains. Jon even references that 'there is truth in here"

There is so much combined knowledge that it's tough to narrow down, but I think Ramsay sent the letter after being misinformed about some things. I just want to go over the letter as a whole though. Much thanks to the Old Gods for compiling all this info in one thread.

Your false king is dead bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore.

Your false king's friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell. Come see them, bastard. Your false king lied, and so did you. You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me.

I will have my bride back. If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him. I have him in a cage for all the north to see, proof of your lies. The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell.

I want my bride back. I want the false king's queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want this wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe. And I want my Reek. Send them to me, bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows. Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard's heart and eat it.

Ramsay Bolton, Trueborn Lord of Winterfell

So let's take it from the top:

Your false king is dead bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore.

Not too much revealed in this part of the letter. He says he defeated Stannis (I don't believe it) and reveals knowledge of his 'magic sword' and Melisandre, both of which I think just about everyone in the seven kingdoms know about.

Your false king's friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell. Come see them, bastard.

This is where I think it gets interesting. Firstly, who are the 'false king's friends?' It could be:

1) The members of Stannis' military forces (Wulls, Norreys, Mormonts, Queen's Men, etc.) defeated in battle

2) Manderly, Glover, and Umber. It is possible that their conspiracy against the Bolton's was revealed and their cover was blown. I really hope this isn't the case.

Your false king lied, and so did you. You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me.

Again, it gets interesting. This part of the letter reveals some more info about the author. The biggest being that the author knows Mance Rayder is still alive. In addition, it references Mance Rayder's mission. Now, someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but there aren't many people who know about Mance's mission to Winterfell. As far as Jon knew, Mance was to intercept the 'grey girl on a dying horse' (presumed to be Arya) somewhere east of Long Lake. The mission to go to Winterfell was known by: Mance, Melisandre, and maybe the Spearwives. Also notice that the author refers to (not)Arya as 'my bride,' implying that they know that the girl is Jeyne Poole, and not Arya Stark.

I will have my bride back. If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him. I have him in a cage for all the north to see, proof of your lies. The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell.

This section reveals the exact number of Spearwives sent with Mance. Also another reference to 'my bride,' and not Arya Stark.

I want my bride back. I want the false king's queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want this wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe. And I want my Reek. Send them to me, bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows. Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard's heart and eat it.

Ramsay Bolton, Trueborn Lord of Winterfell

Some big demands made here from the 'trueborn Lord of Winterfell,' eh? The author also reveals his knowledge of Wildlings south of the Wall, as well as Mance's son and Val. And of course, 'my Reek.' I don't know how many people know about Reek's existence.

It's also interesting that there is no mention of Reek being found at the battle. If Ramsay's army defeated Stannis', wouldn't they have found Reek as a prisoner in the dungeons? Or dead? Did Stannis really lose the battle?

Personally, I don't see Stannis writing the letter. There are no ravens to go to the Wall and the whole "trickery" aspect doesn't seem like his game. Also, he doesn't know Tormund and his gang crossed the Wall. The garrison at the Wall isn't nearly enough, and if he truly wanted Jon's help, he'd demand it (but IMO, Stannis knows the Night's Watch needs to be at the Wall and wouldn't bait them to come South). Mance is another impossibility. How would he get his hands on a Raven? Pink sealing wax? Doesn't seem like his move. I think/hope he got out of town and the information about Mance and his mission was extracted from torture by one of the Spearwives (maybe Squirrel, as she was behind posing as Arya), but who knows?

I just hope Manderly doesn't die from getting stabbed in the neck.. guy has become too important. The north remembers and all.

[By the Old Gods Not theNew]

welcome, mammothsbane. nice first post, thanks for posting the full text of the letter and your explication. ill be back to discuss...soon.

[Arkantos]

"Your false king lied, and so did you. You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me."

If these are the right words, it's odd, because I don't think Jon put out the word that Mance was burned and if he did, it was Stannis who did it.

That letter is probably from the hooded man, whoever that is. Those words just don't make me think of Ramsay at all, he'd be far more demanding & threatening imo.

He also says '7 days of battle', I doubt that considering the conditions they were fighting in. Seven days lends itself more to a siege than a single fight, the men wouldn't be in the mood for repeated retreats and such.

[Mammothsbane]

welcome, mammothsbane. nice first post, thanks for posting the full text of the letter and your explication. ill be back to discuss...soon.

Thank you!

"Your false king lied, and so did you. You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me."

If these are the right words, it's odd, because I don't think Jon put out the word that Mance was burned and if he did, it was Stannis who did it.

That's what was in the letter. It's true though, I don't remember Jon ever "telling the world" what happened to Mance.. maybe it happened off-page? Jon might have sent out an update, but it doesn't seem likely since no one seems to care much what happens at the wall in the South

That letter is probably from the hooded man, whoever that is. Those words just don't make me think of Ramsay at all, he'd be far more demanding & threatening imo.

He also says '7 days of battle', I doubt that considering the conditions they were fighting in. Seven days lends itself more to a siege than a single fight, the men wouldn't be in the mood for repeated retreats and such.

Could be. The Hooded Man conspiracy is a whole nother part. I have legitimately no idea who it is.. so many convincing arguments. The seven days thing is odd, but I assumed it meant seven days as far as transition time plus battle. Stannis is camped 3 days from Winterfell, so 3 days there + 1 day battle + 3 days back = seven days of battle. Personally, I think the Manderly's and their forces turned their cloaks at the start of the battle. The Frey's charge and fall into ice traps, Manderly's surrender. Then, the Manderlys hatch a plot with Crowfood Umber, Stannis, Robett Glover and Manderly to infiltrate and seize Winterfell. That's how I think they return with Stannis' sword. They hatch a false plan about Theon and Jeyne heading for the wall and return with misinformation about what happened at the battle.. I'm still unsure what happened to Mance though.. I'd hate for him to be captured. He's a cool character

[Scarlet Seastar]

I like the idea of the conspirators going into 'battle' with Stannis and coming back with a 'burning sword' as 'proof' that Stannis is dead, only to infiltrate Winterfell, and then take the Boltons in their sleep. Remember, Manderlys are of the south, they are more openminded in terms of what is honorable(for instance Ned would not swear false fealty, would he?), but the Manderlys would consider their honor bound to the Starks.

That would explain a lot of things from the letter.

"Your false king lied, and so did you. You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me."

^ This could be discovered by Mance. May be they tortured the truth out of him, and I am hopeful that since Roose is with Ramsay, Mance wasn't flayed. If we go even as far as to say that Mance and Manderly had a deal, then I'm sure they would have foreseen several possible outcomes of the situation, including the one in which Mance probably is right now; Mance tells the truth[but hides Manderly's part] and in turn he is protected from Ramsay's madness. They could even go as far as to say that Manderly 'caught' Mance, that would make Ramsay[if not Roose] feel comfortable and reckless among the northern lords once again.

That would explain why he doesn't say that he has Stannis' head. He only says he has the heads of Stannis' friends. The magic sword would suffice for Ramsay's intelligence I think.

Also, I'm pretty sure Ramsay sent the letter without the consent of Roose, hence there's no stamp, only pink wax.

I think we have two battles to witness about Winterfell-the false one, and the one where the Boltons are defeated.

If they had really caught Stannis, then they would have found Theon. Stannis didn't let Theon out of sight, I believe. He even planned the imprisonment of the Karstarks with his guards in front of Theon-not that Theon could have done something about it. Also, he might have kept Theon with him for Theon's safety-may be other northerners would harm him if he'd been imprisoned somewhere else.

One thing I cannot remember though-what was Stannis planning about Winterfell when he took over it? Did he plan to give it to one of his lords, or to a northern one? If Davos manages to bring Rickon, I know Stannis would do the right thing and give it to him, but if Davos doesn't make in time, to whom was Winterfell supposed to go?

[fassreiter]

"Your false king lied, and so did you. You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me."

If these are the right words, it's odd, because I don't think Jon put out the word that Mance was burned and if he did, it was Stannis who did it.

Stannis announced his victory to the whole north, he wrote letters to all northern lords and demanded their fealty. No one wanted to follow him (small wonder), but he probably put invitations to his exemplary execution in there. How else could that Umber guy demand to get Mance's skull (I still don't know if that was meant metaphorically, but it doesn't matter: I call blasphemy!)? After the execution, Stannis probably wrote to tell him how it went down. Also, he wanted the execution to be a educational show (in certain countries and periods of history also called a show trial), staged to address the whole north ("I’ll burn him, and the north will see how I deal with turncloaks and traitors."), so he probably also wrote to the whole north again. I almost wish Stannis' skull is one of the heads on the Wall of Winterfell, but I know he is not. Too bad. But I hope his end will be of the fiery kind. About Jon: He stood next to Stannis during their little show of humanity and fair justice, and being LC of the NW, he publicly approved by this, so he can be counted as complicit in the eyes of the north.

[David C. Hunter]

^ Love your signature

Also, we have to consider the potential of a Skagosi army.

Rickon Stark, Shaggy Dog and Osha are on Skagos. As of the end of ADWD Davos Seaworth is on his way to retrieve them. However, I doubt that GRRM placed Rickon on Skagos, just to be returned back to Winterfell.

He must be doing this so that the Skagosi can enter the war.

They won't make it in time for the Battle of Ice, but they should arrive in time for the Siege of Winterfell and they maybe the thing the turns the tide of the battle.

Pure speculation, but some have theorized that maybe the Starks have blood relatives there, maybe the Skagosi would worship the Starks as Gods(Someone has said this somewhere)

Its very interesting

I also think it is possible Howland Reed is the Hooded Man, but I do not believe that the Reeds will show up until after the Siege of Winterfell.

[Black Wolf Smith]

I like the idea of the conspirators going into 'battle' with Stannis and coming back with a 'burning sword' as 'proof' that Stannis is dead, only to infiltrate Winterfell, and then take the Boltons in their sleep¹. Remember, Manderlys are of the south, they are more openminded in terms of what is honorable(for instance Ned would not swear false fealty, would he?), but the Manderlys would consider their honor bound to the Starks.

^ This could be discovered by Mance. May be they tortured the truth out of him²,

That would explain why he doesn't say that he has Stannis' head. He only says he has the heads of Stannis' friends. The magic sword would suffice for Ramsay's intelligence I think.

Also, I'm pretty sure Ramsay sent the letter without the consent of Roose³, hence there's no stamp, only pink wax.

I think we have two battles to witness about Winterfell-the false one, and the one where the Boltons are defeated.

1 My first thought was this as well. Manderly men coming behind the Frey's, Frey's march right on to the Ice cover lake and died. But wouldn't the Boltons be worried about Manderly if only his men came back, even with the sword.?

2. I would think that one of the spearwives that was defending while Theon and FArya got way would have been the one caught. They would likely know all the info that Mance knew.

3. I agree, it seems like Ramsey and not Roose. IMO it was done after Stannis has attacked WF, while on the run. Even twith he last bit about do this and I leave you be, part seemed rushed, and trying to provoke a reaction. I don't think that a Maester had any part of this.

[kneo]

The person with the strongest reason to lure Jon from the Wall is Theon who is probably headed there with the fake Arya. The content of the letter is something that Theon would say but the problem remains the sigil of house Bolton(which gives authenticity to the letter) which at this point we don't know to be in his hands.

[Scarlet Seastar]

1 My first thought was this as well. Manderly men coming behind the Frey's, Frey's march right on to the Ice cover lake and died. But wouldn't the Boltons be worried about Manderly if only his men came back, even with the sword.?

2. I would think that one of the spearwives that was defending while Theon and FArya got way would have been the one caught. They would likely know all the info that Mance knew.

3. I agree, it seems like Ramsey and not Roose. IMO it was done after Stannis has attacked WF, while on the run. Even twith he last bit about do this and I leave you be, part seemed rushed, and trying to provoke a reaction. I don't think that a Maester had any part of this.

1. Well, Lady Dustin told Theon that the northerners were with the Boltons just because of Arya. In one occasion, even Theon noticed fear in Roose's eyes. My point is, Roose will not openly oppose Manderly, not at first. He would suspect the lie, sure, but he must have a very good proof of Manderly's betrayal and loyalty to Stannis. And if the alleged northern conspiracy is real, then Roose cannot trust anyone, well, except for a number of the lords, of course, and the Freys, but they went and died in the battle, right? And let's face it, if Stannis reinstates the last of the Starks, most of the northerners would join him.

2. I agree, it could be one of the spearwives. Some of them did survive, Squirrel for instance. Could be. I still think it's fishy that Ramsay left Mance alive....

3. If we agree that it is Ramsay, no way he could have done it while on the run. I don't remember the handwriting, whether it was a childish scrawl, or not, but I do remember it was written in maester's ink, it was noted by Jon. Anyway, Ramsay sounds awfully sure of what he's talking about[about Stannis' death and defeat], he feels at ease, and reckless. Although it could be send on the run, but there would not be a point.

Except, Ramsay could only have Mance and want to draw Jon down there because he knows it would mean Jon's death.

[Black Wolf Smith]

The person with the strongest reason to lure Jon from the Wall is Theon who is probably headed there with the fake Arya. The content of the letter is something that Theon would say but the problem remains the sigil of house Bolton(which gives authenticity to the letter) which at this point we don't know to be in his hands.

Well the problem with it being Theon (besides the whole being changed to a wall, not having enought fingers to write it, and every body in and around the camp but his sister wanting him dead) is that its Theon, who Jon did not like much to begin with. He could have sent a letter saying

"Jon, Its Theon I have Arya, come meet me...." and Jon would have went, to save Arya and kill Theon.

@Scarlet Seastar IMO the letter could have been written by ramsey while stopped. If he took the time to steal a bird, he very well could have grabbed the ink, and the whole purpose is to get Jon to run in to an ambush. While Jon is racing down to WF, to be ambush shortly after he left "the Gift" or what not.

Of course I am the one that thinks that all of this "the Battle of WF" wont be much. It will be bloody, but it won't settle anything. Not so early in aWoW.

[Patizambo]

While I do love this grand Northern Conspiracy speculation, I have to wonder where and if Mance would fit into this at all. I could certainly understand the part where he allies with Manderly- White Harbor being further away from the Wall would not harbor the same suspicion and outright hatred of wildlings as other Northern Lords, and thus maybe some kind of arrangement could be come to (which furthers the idea that Mance met Manderley before arriving at Winterfell and Manderley purposely arrived for the wedding without a singer so Mance could get in).

However, I struggle with the idea that other Northern Lords would ever ally with Mance. Umbers in particular have a very visceral hatred for wildlings, who have stolen Umber women from their lands. It's even part of Crowfood's deal to join Stannis. Stannis says:

I'm not sure I could ever imagine some kind of deal being worked out that involved both wildlings and the Umbers- I'd like to think that hatred for the Boltons would outweigh hatred for wildlings, but I'm not sure that's the case as it pertains to the Umbers. There's always the chance, as has been speculated on other threads, that one of the spear wives Mance brought to Winterfell is this missing Umber girl, as a sort of peace offering. But I'm not sure this would really soothe over the Umbers' anger: This would be the same as a kidnapper returning after 20 odd years with the daughter and being like "We're all cool, right? No problem with me?"

You also have to consider the fact that Crowsfood might not know Mance's appereance. Maybe he thought he was dealing with a wildling bard named Abel sent by a son of Eddard Stark.

Or that he was told to recover Arya by someone else without knowing mance was part of the plan.