[spoilers] The North at the end of aDwD and the start of aWoW. Summary/continuance of the Northern Lords Conspiracy, Hooded Man, Pink Letter Threads.

[By the Old Gods Not theNew]

I know this is an old debate, and that we have different opinions about what has transpired in the North, but it's worth restating/re-playing.

In fact, it's more than just losing his toys. He MUST have Arya and Reek back. Both of them wandering about in the North could be his destruction. From his point of view, Jon Snow must not meet her, or he would call the bluff on her identity. If she already met him, there is only one option left: threaten him into silence. Hence the letter. Having Reek wandering about is even more disastrous, because he could call the bluff on the death of the Stark heirs (not even mentioning placing the blame on the Boltons). Each of those two could easily destroy his claim to Winterfell (no Arya, and Stark boys being alive, so it doesn't even matter if he had her!), and what's more, might well cost him what is left of the support of the North (and thus, his life). He has to get them back, even kill them if necessary, or ensure that no one uses them against him.

yes there is certainly motive for Ramsay to send the letter, however Roose is a major hurdle to Ramsay's ability to send the letter. There is really nothing establishing Roose motive to allow the Letter to be sent. All the arguments that he had to act to cover his ass only support the argument that he would keep the disappearance a secret (He tried to keep Yellow Dicks murder a secret) and send forth all the necessary forces to capture the two of them. Furthermore Roose is in charge of Winterfell and has final say over where to birds fly and what they say. Therefore unless there is a good argument for why Roose would abandon form and become loud and stupid as opposed to quite and shrewd I think the only way Ramsay sent the letter is if Roose is either dead, incapacitated, or Ramsay managed to some how clandestinely send a raven under Roose's nose.

1. He flayed some sixty Ironmen in one night.

that's a very good point. It was however under completely different circumstance.

The Iron Born were weak, taken by surprise after yielding and being told they wouldn't be harmed as well as being offered food medical attention, they were likely drugged and/or murdered and and flayed in a mass production model. I doubt that Skinner can skin 63 people in a single night. 63 people flaying 63 people in single night or even a 1 to 6 ration of 10 flayers to 60 flayed seems manageable. Bolton's men had nothing to worry about and could focus on the task of flaying the iron born.

The conditions in Winterfell are much different than those outside Moat Calin. The purpose of flaying in this instance is not just a Bolton thing, it's about extracting information, it's a more involved proses requiring interrogation and time. And the Spearwives are not going to go down without a fight (freyna over powered 1 gaurd, and was able to hold back 6 more). There are also much more pressing issue like finding Arya and Theon, and Killing Stannis, and thwarting any potential treachery being plotted by Manderly and the rest of the Northers.

all that said 63 in a night means 6 in an indeterminate period of time = more the possible.

2. He probably went to get her back, she wasn't to be found (she was picked up by one of Stannis' men, but how could Ramsay know that?)

It's possible that Ramsay went to get them, but there's no evidence that he did, even in the aWoW Theon sample chapter. It's also hard to believe that Ramsay can return to Winterfell empty handed and then convince Roose to go against everything we know about and okay the most loud and obnoxious gesture he can think of. It's more likely Roose would rid himself of the headache that Ramsay's become.

The chronology of their escape only casts doubt that Ramsay has even left (or ever will leave) Winterfell. They Jumped form the walls, they were picked by up Mors, who then gets word that the Main gate has opened, Mors then goes and confirms the Frey's have fallen into his trap, but there is no word of any actual military engagement, then Tycho shows up (possibly at night considering they arrived at the unknown village at night presumably 3 days later), he and Mors talk before he takes off to find Stannis w/ Theon, "Arya" 6 Iron Born (known to be slow on horse), and 2 NW guides (know to be fast, but as we know from stannis your only as fast as your slowest person), they than travel for three days. And over this entire time they never see any sign of Ramsay or his dogs nor is there any confirmation that anyone has even left winterfell.

3. Arya has not escaped, of course. She was stolen by the Turncloak, some sneaky wildlings, and on the order of the Bastard of Winterfell. Why not make use of such a propaganda move?

because there are a lot of people Roose most of all who don't think loud, obnoxious and unnecessarily risky behavior makes any sense. I can see that they would try to frame things like that to the people in winterfell but announcing it to the world w/ out any actual need doesn't make any sense.

1. Theon and Arya very publicly jumped from the Walls. She is gone, maybe some northmen demanded to see her? Maybe they had no other choice but to announce her 'kidnapping'. Thus, any move against the NW could rightfully be called a rescue mission.

2. But we don't even know if they made it public, or if they expected Jon to announce the letter publicly. They put some secret stuff in there that made it pretty difficult for Jon to admit to. Plus they probably didn't expect him to have an army of wildlings behind him, so they didn't know he wouldn't give a shit about his position in the NW.

3. And finally, if Arya had already reached the Wall (and they had to expect that after they couldn't find her), they had to contact Jon, or risk that he would make his move. They know he will be able to identify Arya. So again, even if they didn't WANT to announce that 'Arya' is missing, they know someone will do it for them... and that someone will call them on their bluffing.

Roose knew that word of Yellow Dick would get out he nevertheless tried to keep it secret. He also knew that word might get back to Ned that he was taking the Right of the First Night, and bent over backwards to appease the Ramsay's mother while silencing everyone else involved. I can't see him accepting incompetence, changing his long established m.o. to accommodate his stupid bastard son's ineptitude. Why not send out more people to locate them.

There's also essentially no way that skilled hunters would think Theon and "Arya" could possibly make it to Castle Black by the time the Letter made it (I assume Jon's last chapter in aDwD takes place before Theon's sample chapter form aWoW - meaning the letter was sent less then 3 days after the escape - I could be wrong).

Maybe he was out there and went back, or maybe he is on his way. GRRM wouldn't want to tell us. But he definitely saw what happened to the Freys who rode out, so maybe he was just delayed.

See above. He probably went out there and threw a hissy fit when he couldn't find them (they couldn't find Bran and Rickon either, and he had to live with it, too). But fact is, we know that he didn't find them, and why. So in fact, failing to get them back makes the letter even more plausible. I don't assume he wrote it the minute after Arya had escaped. He took to it as a last resort and a means of deception to make Jon Snow shut up after he had realized that Arya could have reached the Wall by now.

Ramsay didn't find them but it wasn't because they were spirited away before he could act. they got away in spite of the fact they waited around under the walls of winterfell before leaving w/ a party of people that was comprised of a majority of slow (iron born) and injured (theon and "arya") members. who than presumably took zero precautions to conceal their route but nevertheless were able to evade any sign of one of the most feared hunters in the north on a three day trek.

[Tagganaro]

Perhaps this might be over analysis, but I wonder what "sad, soft song" Theon doesn't recognize that Mance is singing to Roose last time we see him. Presumably, Theon would know pretty much any Northern song because he grew up there...Does that leave wildling music? Could it be "The Last of the Giants"? Is there any relevance to that song, if it is the case?

[By the Old Gods Not theNew]

I totally thought wildling song when i read that passage. ill have too look much deeper at all the songs.

[Mother of Dragons]

Ok, this is really silly, but I thought it was funny enough to share. I was poking fun at this lady i know who does Tarot readings, so I told her I wanted a (free) reading, and I wanted her to tell me :

- who is jon snow's mother

- is jon snow really dead

-and is jon snow azhor azhai reborn, the prince that was promised

To my surprise, she actually answered these questions, but i think she's totally wrong. I got a description of the mom i couldn't place, and "no" for the other 2. I guess i should of asked if jon will STAY dead, because he might of died, i just don't think he'll stay that way. Maybe Tyrion is AA :-D. I told her she was a terrible psychic because Jon is AA. There is no other alternative, but she may need to wait til 2021 for feedback.

[Fender]

In another thread, I made quite a few good arguments as to why Harwin could very likely be the Hooded Man. Could you add him to the list? I can repeat my arguments, if you wish.

[By the Old Gods Not theNew]

sorry i missed that one...a link...or any explication would be awesome.

[Ragnorak]

Perhaps this might be over analysis, but I wonder what "sad, soft song" Theon doesn't recognize that Mance is singing to Roose last time we see him. Presumably, Theon would know pretty much any Northern song because he grew up there...Does that leave wildling music? Could it be "The Last of the Giants"? Is there any relevance to that song, if it is the case?

I wondered if it was the song that Mance was playing when Jon walked into his tent-- but that was the Dornishman's Wife. I looked through the Wiki at the song list and nothing jumped out, certainly nothing Wildling. I would say Last of the Giants or even Bael's Song of the Winter Rose (the Bael the Bard Tale.) As far as the Last of the Giants I think Tze nailed it when he mentioned

For these men who are small can never stand tall,

whilst giants still walk in the light.

As long as the Starks live the Boltons can never stand tall.

Here's the Halfhand on the Bael song.

“She told me Mance would take me, if I ran with her.”

“She told you true.”

“She even claimed we were kin. She told me a story…”

“…of Bael the Bard and the rose of Winterfell. So Stonesnake told me. It happens I know the song. Mance would sing it of old, when he came back from a ranging. He had a passion for wildling music. Aye, and for their women as well.”

That seems a strictly North of the Wall tune and one Mance would be inclined to play. I'm coming up empty on any other Wildling music though. Are there even any other options beyond those two?

[Tagganaro]

I wondered if it was the song that Mance was playing when Jon walked into his tent-- but that was the Dornishman's Wife. I looked through the Wiki at the song list and nothing jumped out, certainly nothing Wildling. I would say Last of the Giants or even Bael's Song of the Winter Rose (the Bael the Bard Tale.) As far as the Last of the Giants I think Tze nailed it when he mentioned

As long as the Starks live the Boltons can never stand tall.

Here's the Halfhand on the Bael song.

That seems a strictly North of the Wall tune and one Mance would be inclined to play. I'm coming up empty on any other Wildling music though. Are there even any other options beyond those two?

Yeah, I was actually thinking Bael the Bard as well, but I wasn't sure if it was just a story or a song as well. Should have known it would be a song...

Anyway, the only problem I see with that- Of course it is Mance we're talking about (most awesome guy in Westeros), but would he really have the balls to sing that song to Bolton's face? Here he is pretending to be a singer completely outnumbered and without allies, singing a song to Bolton's face about a guy who pretends to be a singer and steals the Lord of Winterfell's daughter?

My guess would be that if Mance is singing Bael the Bard some serious shit is about to go down that Mance has been planning on. But it certainly would make sense that Mance would choose that song eventually.

[Ragnorak]

Yeah, I was actually thinking Bael the Bard as well, but I wasn't sure if it was just a story or a song as well. Should have known it would be a song...

Anyway, the only problem I see with that- Of course it is Mance we're talking about (most awesome guy in Westeros), but would he really have the balls to sing that song to Bolton's face? Here he is pretending to be a singer completely outnumbered and without allies, singing a song to Bolton's face about a guy who pretends to be a singer and steals the Lord of Winterfell's daughter?

My guess would be that if Mance is singing Bael the Bard some serious shit is about to go down that Mance has been planning on. But it certainly would make sense that Mance would choose that song eventually.

Would Mance really have the balls to--- YES!

That was a very nice catch. I skipped over that because "sad" just wasn't helpful, but noting Theon would know every Northern song so it must be Wildling is a great insight.

[Tagganaro]

Would Mance really have the balls to--- YES!

lol. Fair enough. I deserve an ass-kicking courtesy of Mance just for asking that stupid question...of course like most people and Jon I'll probably just be glad to get my ass kicked by such an awesome person.

Mance was willing to make a relatively tasteless and ballsy joke with switching the words from "Dornishman's Wife" to "Northman's Daughter", so there's probably not much he'd not be willing to do.

Perhaps in conjunction with some kind of great Northmen conspiracy, Mance knows it's time to make his move with the Freys all riding out into a trap. if Manderley just keeps his men behind, there might be wholesale slaughter inside Winterfell of the Bolton forces?

[Budj]

haha! Mance absolutely has the cojones to do that.

[Ragnorak]

I'm actually a little more than half convinced Dany's HotU vision of the slaughter at a feast with the dead man with a wolf's head on the throne isn't the Red Wedding but the aftermath of the Bolton's in Winterfell. Even if it isn't, it pretty much describes what I think is going to happen to the Boltons in Winterfell.

[Tagganaro]

I'm actually a little more than half convinced Dany's HotU vision of the slaughter at a feast with the dead man with a wolf's head on the throne isn't the Red Wedding but the aftermath of the Bolton's in Winterfell. Even if it isn't, it pretty much describes what I think is going to happen to the Boltons in Winterfell.

I wonder if in light of Tze's thread on the topic, there's some kind of reference to some of the plates and dishes being served at Winterfell. Maybe the guy with the wolf head is Jon Snow (in conjunction with Mel's vision of man-wolf-man) getting there and surveying the scene? No I don't actually think that but would be very interesting. If the Boltons aren't killed in glorious fashion at some point, Martin will be the worlds greatest troll or something lol. Besides, there's far too much evidence to the contrary that they will not survive long.

[fassreiter]

yes there is certainly motive for Ramsay to send the letter, however Roose is a major hurdle to Ramsay's ability to send the letter. There is really nothing establishing Roose motive to allow the Letter to be sent. All the arguments that he had to act to cover his ass only support the argument that he would keep the disappearance a secret (He tried to keep Yellow Dicks murder a secret) and send forth all the necessary forces to capture the two of them. Furthermore Roose is in charge of Winterfell and has final say over where to birds fly and what they say. Therefore unless there is a good argument for why Roose would abandon form and become loud and stupid as opposed to quite and shrewd I think the only way Ramsay sent the letter is if Roose is either dead, incapacitated, or Ramsay managed to some how clandestinely send a raven under Roose's nose.

Who is to say Roose Bolton isn't one for the grand gesture if required? Didn't he step up in his pink cloak and stab Robb through the heart, along with some words to remember? In order to keep the North under his control, it is important to point out who the enemies are, and next to Stannis, the Bolton's enemies are any remaining Starks. As only Jon Snow is left, Roose should be interested in making him do his bidding, or destroy him. Publicly announcing Jon as the enemy could be the only thing that helps Roose not being crushed by northern lords. He can play the bastard card, also the north hates wildlings, so this would work. And again, maybe he never intended for the letter to be read, but it was worth taking the risk. Jon would lose more than Roose, in this case. Jon was the one who send people to abduct his sister. He could even spin this into a story about how Jon wanted to marry Arya to take the North, breaking enough vows and rules in the process to execute him for high treason. Loud and stupid? I don't know. From Roose's point of view it could be quite cunning. It leaves enough opportunities for him, depending on how Jon will react. Maybe he will give in and hand over an almost unkown girl and the guy who killed his brothers. Maybe he will fight back. Then Roose can rely on the propaganda groundwork he has established. And he doesn't know about any wildling army, so he might very well expect Jon to give in.

The conditions in Winterfell are much different than those outside Moat Calin. The purpose of flaying in this instance is not just a Bolton thing, it's about extracting information, it's a more involved proses requiring interrogation and time. And the Spearwives are not going to go down without a fight (freyna over powered 1 gaurd, and was able to hold back 6 more). There are also much more pressing issue like finding Arya and Theon, and Killing Stannis, and thwarting any potential treachery being plotted by Manderly and the rest of the Northers.

I think we are disagreeing on the timeline here. I think more than three days have passed since Theon's escape and the arrival of the letter at Castle Black, but I am not sure. Could you please explain your reasoning the timeline again, concerning the conncection to the Wall? Most likely there were clues I didn't see, I am not good at piecing together GRRM's chronology. Thank you!

Ramsay didn't find them but it wasn't because they were spirited away before he could act. they got away in spite of the fact they waited around under the walls of winterfell before leaving w/ a party of people that was comprised of a majority of slow (iron born) and injured (theon and "arya") members. who than presumably took zero precautions to conceal their route but nevertheless were able to evade any sign of one of the most feared hunters in the north on a three day trek.

I think it is indeed unlikely that they escaped. But I think it might be due to slightly sloppy writing. Fact is, we know Ramsay needs Arya and Theon back, he had the opportunity to get them when they were below the castle walls, he didn't took it, for whatever reason. Fact is, we already know they made it, so that doesn't mean Ramsay didn't try to get them back. Maybe something happened inside the castle, or it was just GRRM building up suspense. I hope you are right, by the way, and Roose is out of the picture right now, hopefully because Mance has killed him.

Great discussion about the Mance's balls, by the way :) I agree, of course, wholeheartedly!

[Toccs]

you're right, it does belong because it has been mentioned and there are decent arguments behind the idea, that said i hate the idea. Split personality = worst plot device ever, imo. But thanks for adding this, it does certainly belong. Do you recall the page/chapter in which the scene where time elapses from morning to evening appears. I don't recall that passage myself and would like to re-read it.

The missing time is at the start of the chapter "A Ghost in Winterfell". Here is the passage.

As the garrison broke it's fast that morning on stale bread fried in bacon grease ( the lords and knights ate the bacon), the talk along the benches was of little but the corpse.

"Stannis has friends inside the castle.", Theon heard one serjeant mutter. He was an old Tallhart man, three trees sewed onto his ragged coat. The watch had just changed. Men were coming in from the cold, stomping their feet to knock the snow off their boots and breaches as the midday meal was served - blood sausages, leeks and brown bread still warm from the ovens.

So within that passage the scene moves seamlessly from breakfast to the midday meal.

[Patizambo]

To the OP: I haven't found any indication in your post about a posible agreement between Mance(or Abel) and crowfood, just that crowfood founds theon and jeyne. I think crowfood was waiting for Jeyne to be droped by the spearwives.

What makes me think this is Theon's commenting how dropping outside the walls of winterfell in the middle of a storm by themselves would be a folly, unless someone was waiting for them, which he ignores at the time. Also the spearwives determination to carry on with the plan makes me like this option a lot.

English is not my native language so please forgive any mistakes.

[Scarlet Seastar]

On the argument about Mance's, um, bravery-makes me think that may be Mance had more allies(wildlings or others) within Winterfell than we know.

I mean, the guy had just been rescued from burning, I don't think he would just throw away everything like that.

Also, I don't think it was mentioned in Theon's chapters in Winterfell, but was Mance still wearing the Rattleshirt disguise? If he was, then I don't think Ramsay/Roose could know who he really is.

However, the letter that Jon received-the words-they sounded childish. Like a baby who's lost its toys and wants them back, and wants everything else.

May be Stannis did win the battle and imprisoned Ramsay who somehow managed to smuggle a letter?

Then again, we know that Ramsay's not a very good swordsman. I assume he would probably stand back at the beginning of the battle.

Well, I think I just formed a possible chain of events:

1. Theon arrives at the village where Stannis has made camp.

2. The next morning, Stannis calls the Karstarks and imprisons them.

3. Stannis meets the mountain clans' leaders-after Asha leaves, and tells them that he wants to give Theon to the Old Gods, in the heart tree of Winterfell and that's why his execution would have to wait.

4. The Maester sent a map to Roose, so Stannis decides not to wait for them to come, but instead marches on to WF-it's three days away after all.

5. Meanwhile, in Winterfell, the Freys have been caught into a trap, but there is no mention of Manderly's host. I think they were ordered by Manderly to fight for Stannis if it came to that. So who says they will not join Mors outside the walls? That would stop Roose from marching.

6. So we have a fight between Roose and Mors, and I think that Roose would go to fight, while cowardly Ramsay stays behind.

7. Stannis arrives with his force, and Ramsay sends the letter before he foolishly goes to fight, thinking all the other lords would protect him.

8. However, the north remembers and the Boltons and their allies are slaughtered and defeated. Ramsay's imprisoned-because I want a horrible death for him.

9. Meanwhile, at the Wall, Lord Commander Jon Snow receives a letter.....

I know it sounds crackpot, but Stannis is not dead-at least Mel says he isn't. Which is why I don't see him losing that battle.

Edit: On the loyalty of the Reeds to the Starks:

Torrhen Stark brought a force of his own to face the Targs south of the Neck. That way he protected them, didn't he? He also knelt-refused to slaughter his men in a fight where they will surely lose-he saw the dragons. If there had been a fight, I'm sure the Reeds would have suffered-wouldn't they?

In a similar way, the Manderlys remain loyal to the Starks because they protected them.

I think the loyalty of the Reeds is because of the wisdom and care for his bannermen Torrhen Stark showed, , and the loyalty of Howland goes even deeper than this-we all know the story of the Knight of the Laughing Tree.

[Fender]

There you go.

Am I the only one who considers that it could Harwin? He knows the north, he can travel there easily and pass as a Northerner. He also knew Theon back when he was at Winterfell, and he most likely heard he was dead, after killing Bran and Rickon. It would also make sense that he would have been sent north, to verify if it truly was Arya for the BWB, and help her if it was. He could also have been sent before or after having seen Brienne down in the Riverlands, since by that point it has already been a few weeks since Jaime disappeared (I think), and it would have taken some time for Brienne to reach Jaime anyways. Should have been enough time for an experienced rider like Harwin to reach the north. Having lived his whole life in Winterfell, he would also be aware of either good hiding places, or ways to enter the castle.

I'll also add a few things;

As far as we know, Harwin is still with zombie Cat. The BWB also believes that it was either Sandor Clegane who took Arya from them, or that she ran off on her own. Either way, they now believe that Sandor is dead, since they have his helm. It could actually make a lot of sense for them that the Lannisters/Boltons could have captured Arya and discovered her identity, since if it was Sandor who had captured her, they would assume it would be to carry her there. Or if she had gone to Riverrun like she was planning on doing before Thoros mentioned his vision, they might believe that she got captured either there or on the way. So, since they know that Arya is still alive, and since I'm fairly certain that her being alive and being married to Ramsay is quite common knowledge among the nobility who keep an ear on the state of the war (which is the kind of nobility who tends to lend a hand to the BWB), then I would actually be surprised if they didn't send anyone north to confirm whether or not it is her. And the argument for it being Harwin alone is that he is the best and fastest rider among them all, and that he knows the north. Also Arya would be more likely to listen to him than to any other member of the BWB. Or, for all we know, he was sent north with other members of the BWB, but they either waited outside somewhere while he went in, or they died on the way, or whatever.

So anyways. When all is said and done, I do think that the theory of Harwin being the Hooded Man shouldn't be disregarded.

[Queen of Procrastination]

The Hooded Man could also be Howland Reed.

Their has been a thread about who the Hooded Man is before and many people their believed that it is Howland.

He is very loyal to House Stark and this tactic would be his kind of style, because the Crannogmen are using guerilla tactics, poisons and other things which are considered unfair.

Most of the Northern Lords are at Winterfell so he could use it to present them Robb´s will ( if Maege Mormont reached him) some of the northern bannermen have only taken the side of the Boltons because they have "Arya" and they believe all the other Starks are dead, but they don´t like the Boltons and some of them ( like Lord Manderly) are even conspiaring against the Boltons so Robb´s will could probably make them going for his heir.

Another thing came also to my mind:

Do we really know that the Hooded Man is a Man?

[Budj]

So reading through some of these posts it dawned on me. Those bringing up the fact that if Jon finds out Arya is fake that the Bolton's cover is blown...neither of the Boltons could have written the letter if this is true....because if Arya was at the wall then Jon would absolutely know she is a fake immediately. The letter had to have been a ploy to get Jon to march towards WF.

Edit: I also don't buy that Stannis wrote it using tWoW sample chapter conversation with Massey about "you may even hear that I am dead." That was merely saying you need to hire these companies if I'm dead or alive because Stannis intends to fight this battle to his death. They had just been discussing how Massey pulled Stannis away from the Blackwater battle... I think this adds further support to Stannis being out of the loop and Mance having friends in the Northern lords...

More edits...haha...Mance speculatively has motivations for this. Jon is pro-wildlings south of the wall and if the Northern conspiracy has Jon leading the North then this secures his people's safety south of the wall as Jon would incorporate them into the army and allow the non-fighters to live in the North.