[spoilers] The North at the end of aDwD and the start of aWoW. Summary/continuance of the Northern Lords Conspiracy, Hooded Man, Pink Letter Threads.

[The Sunset King]

If Mel shared all her secrets with Stannis, she'll lose the hold she has over him.

Asha's only ally[Justin Massey] in Stannis' army has been sent to Braavos. I believe it would be very difficult for Asha to send the letter without some help from an inside man.

I think Mel likes Stannis to know she is more powerful than he is. Teaching him to glamour would lessen her usefulness. She lets him glimpse the fires to let him know she isn't full of shit (I think).

Good points. This makes it seem even more likely that she believes success in her cause is not predestined and needs others relying on her to be achieved.

[Mammothsbane]

I like the idea of Mance whispering in Ramsay's ear. The other northern lords don't have to know Abel is Mance.

However, why would Mance lure Jon south? Mance knew Jon was looking for Tormund. Mance could know the danger of Jon with a wildling army.

I thought Mance left the Wall before Val left to find Tormund? It's one of the reasons I don't think Mance sent the letter - he doesn't know of the strength of the Wildlings

I don't know if exactly this, but I really think one of the Boltons is dead and the other is in a losing situation and is desperate, and the letter is a desperate act. On a second thought, contradicting one of my earlier posts, I don't think Roose would write such a letter, and I don't think Roose would allow Ramsay writing such a letter, so my take is Ramsay running the show and Roose somehow dead or captured.

About the Mance connection - well, not so sure.

I'm curious as to how one of the Bolton's would die. I don't think they left Winterfell to participate in the battle. Unless after the battle Stannis stormed Winterfell, but at that point I don't think either of them would be able to flee to the Dreadfort

[Scarlet Seastar]

I thought Mance left the Wall before Val left to find Tormund? It's one of the reasons I don't think Mance sent the letter - he doesn't know of the strength of the Wildlings

I'm curious as to how one of the Bolton's would die. I don't think they left Winterfell to participate in the battle. Unless after the battle Stannis stormed Winterfell, but at that point I don't think either of them would be able to flee to the Dreadfort

Jon was looking for Tormund even before he sent Val to find him, remember, he sent rangers beyond the wall-some of them died, some of them didn't return.

Also, in Mel's chapter, Mance tells Mel that Jon thinks that the rest of the wildlings went with Tormund because Jon would have gone with Tormund had he been in the wildlings place.

So yeah, Mance knew of Jon's intentions.

I'm curious about the death of the Boltons too, though I fear it would be later in the story when they die.

[redriver]

There is another strand of Northern conspiracy,even if it is one of silence.

We know that one exists in the Bolton camp,centered around Manderley's knowledge that Rickon (and Bran) were not killed by Theon.

But here is another,centered around The Liddle's knowledge that Bran (and Rickon) were not killed by Theon.We know that several,if not all the mountain clans are represented in Stannis host,including the Liddles-by Morgan.

Stannis has not been told by anyone that Bran and Rickon were not killed.

So,questions arise.Have the Liddles kept this information to themselves,or have they shared it with other Mountain Clans?

Are they pro or anti-Stannis?

My take is that they have kept the info to themselves and are on Stannis' side against the Boltons and will reveal the Stark details when they think the time is right.

This is part of the rationale of the idea of The Liddle as the HM.He does not kill Theon because he can back up a reveal that the Stark boys are not dead,if it is ever put to him.

Asha receives an apology from Morgan Liddle for calling her a rude name at Deepwood Motte,when he captures her.

Perhaps he has put her in the know regarding Theon and the Stark boys and that's why she has chosen the heart tree as the place of Theon's execution,because a revelation in front of a heart tree by a Mountain clansman would have weight there,even to Stannis.

Holes in this I know.

[Zupoleon]

Holes in this I know.

That can be said for all of the popular Hooded Man theories (Umber, Benjen, Reed, etc...). There's valid points for all of them, to go along with "the holes"...

[redriver]

That can be said for all of the popular Hooded Man theories (Umber, Benjen, Reed, etc...). There's valid points for all of them, to go along with "the holes"...

This is true.But,apart from the HM question,I'm wondering if the Liddle has shared the info within his own family itself,nevermind the other Mountain Clans?

We know the clans are described as "quarrelsome" amongst themselves (by Jon) but you also get a sense that they know the importance of the Starks,especially in relation to Winterfell.

So,is there a big Mountain Clan conspiracy?Or just a Liddle one? :drunk:

[Zupoleon]

This is true.But,apart from the HM question,I'm wondering if the Liddle has shared the info within his own family itself,nevermind the other Mountain Clans?

We know the clans are described as "quarelsome" amongst themselves (by Jon) but you also get a sense that they know the importance of the Starks,especially in relation to Winterfell.

So,is there a big Mountain Clan conspiracy?Or just a Liddle one? :drunk:

Hahaha nice one! I have to imagine that if the Liddle had an opportunity to share the news that he came across Bran, he definitely would've done so. It really does open up a ton of possibilities when you think about it...

[Lady Wylla Manderly]

I'm anticpating Howland Reed becomes the ace in the hole for Team Stannis. He has Galbart and Maege with him, both of whom have declared for Stannis, and we know based on the Moat Cailin chapter that he has no love for Roose or the Boltons in general. Not to mention there's some evidence to suggest that Manderly and Robett Glover have been in contact with Greywater Watch, I think he's big in on the conspiracy.

Great thread btw. My most anticipated storyline in TWoW is easily the Siege of Winterfell.

I'm a little late to quote this, but my favourite head canon for Howland Reed is that he’s just chilling out at Greywater Watch with Ned’s bones, Robb’s will and full knowledge of Jon’s parents waiting for the right moment to roll up and go “Everybody remain calm! I have all the shit you need for a successful Stark Revenge Plot!”

[Incest_La_Vie]

I have two thoughts on the hooded man:

1. Sandor Clegane. There are plenty of threads providing evidence that he is the gravedigger in the Quiet Isle, and if that is the case then I'd have to research whether or not the timeline would make sense for him to also be the hooded man. What points to him as a candidate for me is his dialogue, which betrays the same dark tone and sense of humor. Also the fact that he spent a lot of time with Arya as his captive/companion could lead to him looking for her in Winterfell after hearing news of fake Arya. Sandor certainly seems to have some innate connection to the Stark girls...

2. Howland Reed. Howland needs to make his entrance somewhere, and I think a character as potentially major as he is would benefit from a brief, shadowy appearance so that we readers can look back and go: Oh! Wherever he enters the story, he seems destined to function as a gigantic source of unknown information. He has firsthand accounts of the tourney at Harrenhal and the Tower of Joy. He knows about the green men on the Isle of Faces (if that ever becomes important). In all likelihood he has Robb's will. Additionally, I wouldn't be surprised if he has somehow been able to contact Meera and Jojen (through green sight/dreams or some other weird crannogmen magic) which would give him knowledge that Bran and Rickon were still alive, what Bran was up to, and what happened at the sack of Winterfell. What better forum for the unveiling of this information than the heart of the North, where many plots and questionable allegiances could make use of it?

[Tagganaro]

I have two thoughts on the hooded man:

1. Sandor Clegane. There are plenty of threads providing evidence that he is the gravedigger in the Quiet Isle, and if that is the case then I'd have to research whether or not the timeline would make sense for him to also be the hooded man. What points to him as a candidate for me is his dialogue, which betrays the same dark tone and sense of humor. Also the fact that he spent a lot of time with Arya as his captive/companion could lead to him looking for her in Winterfell after hearing news of fake Arya. Sandor certainly seems to have some innate connection to the Stark girls...

2. Howland Reed. Howland needs to make his entrance somewhere, and I think a character as potentially major as he is would benefit from a brief, shadowy appearance so that we readers can look back and go: Oh! Wherever he enters the story, he seems destined to function as a gigantic source of unknown information. He has firsthand accounts of the tourney at Harrenhal and the Tower of Joy. He knows about the green men on the Isle of Faces (if that ever becomes important). In all likelihood he has Robb's will. Additionally, I wouldn't be surprised if he has somehow been able to contact Meera and Jojen (through green sight/dreams or some other weird crannogmen magic) which would give him knowledge that Bran and Rickon were still alive, what Bran was up to, and what happened at the sack of Winterfell. What better forum for the unveiling of this information than the heart of the North, where many plots and questionable allegiances could make use of it?

I'd say almost no way it's Sandor. The way Theon describes the HM, they are the same height. Sandor is obviously a rather large man so Theon would have described him as such. Even without that, while I like the reference to Sandor's dark sense of humor which does fit, the rest of his character this just doesn't work with.

I would love it if it's Howland though.

[Tagganaro]

There is another strand of Northern conspiracy,even if it is one of silence.

We know that one exists in the Bolton camp,centered around Manderley's knowledge that Rickon (and Bran) were not killed by Theon.

But here is another,centered around The Liddle's knowledge that Bran (and Rickon) were not killed by Theon.We know that several,if not all the mountain clans are represented in Stannis host,including the Liddles-by Morgan.

Stannis has not been told by anyone that Bran and Rickon were not killed.

So,questions arise.Have the Liddles kept this information to themselves,or have they shared it with other Mountain Clans?

Are they pro or anti-Stannis?

My take is that they have kept the info to themselves and are on Stannis' side against the Boltons and will reveal the Stark details when they think the time is right.

This is part of the rationale of the idea of The Liddle as the HM.He does not kill Theon because he can back up a reveal that the Stark boys are not dead,if it is ever put to him.

Asha receives an apology from Morgan Liddle for calling her a rude name at Deepwood Motte,when he captures her.

Perhaps he has put her in the know regarding Theon and the Stark boys and that's why she has chosen the heart tree as the place of Theon's execution,because a revelation in front of a heart tree by a Mountain clansman would have weight there,even to Stannis.

Holes in this I know.

I believe this has in fact been speculated on in other Northmen Conspiracy threads. There is in fact another Liddle at the Wall as well with Jon ( a member of the NW), and I believe the Liddles were mentioned as going south with Robb as well. Clearly, they have a lot of people in positions of importance. And the added fact that they must know that at least Bran was not killed in WF shines an interesting light on some of their actions.

What are they up to? Why haven't they told anyone, even the fiercely loyal other Mountain Clans? Additionally, you have to wonder about how deep their loyalty to Stannis runs, if they can't even be bothered to mention this fact to him.

I tend to be of the opinion that Stannis is actually in a rather precarious position at the moment with other Northmen. They will use him to get rid of the Boltons, but they might not have much use for him past that. Of course, if anyone can win over their loyalty over time it is probably Stannis so you never know.

[FittleLinger]

I believe this has in fact been speculated on in other Northmen Conspiracy threads. There is in fact another Liddle at the Wall as well with Jon ( a member of the NW), and I believe the Liddles were mentioned as going south with Robb as well. Clearly, they have a lot of people in positions of importance. And the added fact that they must know that at least Bran was not killed in WF shines an interesting light on some of their actions.

What are they up to? Why haven't they told anyone, even the fiercely loyal other Mountain Clans? Additionally, you have to wonder about how deep their loyalty to Stannis runs, if they can't even be bothered to mention this fact to him.

I tend to be of the opinion that Stannis is actually in a rather precarious position at the moment with other Northmen. They will use him to get rid of the Boltons, but they might not have much use for him past that. Of course, if anyone can win over their loyalty over time it is probably Stannis so you never know.

They might think Stannis will act rash, something like when Ned confronted Cersei about Joff's parentage, so they might be waiting for the right time or plotting something deeper.

I like the Northern clans conspiracy, I think clans and Skaagosi will play a role to show the Stark's first men origins and generally the wild people will have a large role I think. Props for the theory to everyone involved ;)

[redriver]

They might think Stannis will act rash, something like when Ned confronted Cersei about Joff's parentage, so they might be waiting for the right time or plotting something deeper.

I like the Northern clans conspiracy, I think clans and Skaagosi will play a role to show the Stark's first men origins and generally the wild people will have a large role I think. Props for the theory to everyone involved ;)

And who might they be?

[Scarlet Seastar]

Okay, I have a question about the mountain clans.

They were know to be quarrelsome, as it was said by Jon, but while they're with Stannis, unless I'm missing something, they didn't seem that much quarrelsome. Which is why I think that the Liddles have shared the info on Bran and Rickon with them.

What are they up to with Stannis?Do they want to reinstate the King in the North, or do they want the Starks as Wardens of the North and back in Winterfell?

Would they enter another war with Stannis?

I really cannot imagine what they would do. If they get Bran/or Rickon back, they might war against Stannis, because let's face it, they would win. Asha tells us pretty well that they are better equipped than Stannis' men in the snows, and with winter upon them, the southern lords and knights will be doomed not just in battle, but in the environment as well.

On the other hand, I have always got the impression that they had been mostly left alone and had a certain level of autonomy, both by the King in the North and the Targaryens[much like the Skaagosi]. The Boltons left them alone as well, but the Boltons turned the cloak to the north, and I am pretty sure every true north men hates them.

Also, I am very confused over which Glover is with Manderly. The one who was sent to find Howland, or the other one?

[Black Wolf Smith]

But here is another,centered around The Liddle's knowledge that Bran (and Rickon) were not killed by Theon.We know that several,if not all the mountain clans are represented in Stannis host,including the Liddles-by Morgan.

So,questions arise.Have the Liddles kept this information to themselves,or have they shared it with other Mountain Clans?

I for 1 am not sure that it was a Liddle per say. Yes a mountain man, but who knows if it was a Liddle.

One of the Theories that pop up in the Inside/outside WF thread was that the Mountain Clans were working with the Wildlings. There is a lot too it, I even have said some of it on this thread. IIRC the basic parts are that the Mountain man that saw Bran, told his clan and that it spread. That they have worked with the wildlings before. That the reason behind the 2 older clan leaders coming to the Wall with 2 wet nurses, was to 1. Meet Jon and size him up. 2. To meet with the Wildlings. There at least some hints that they were meeting with Tormunds son, and to some degree is that Tormund is Lady Mormonts husband

Also on that same theory, that the Mormont women with Stannis has been meeting with the Mountain Clans. There is at least some points where she is with/ or near the mountain men when she did not have a reason to be there.

All of this of course is why IMO that there is 3 groups. That they have not all been working together, but are starting to come together at the end of aDwD, and the Theon sample chapter.

[Incest_La_Vie]

I'd say almost no way it's Sandor. The way Theon describes the HM, they are the same height. Sandor is obviously a rather large man so Theon would have described him as such. Even without that, while I like the reference to Sandor's dark sense of humor which does fit, the rest of his character this just doesn't work with.

I would love it if it's Howland though.

The only description Theon makes of the hooded man involves the direction he is walking, the cloak flapping behind him, and his possession of a dagger. Even when their eyes met there is no physical description provided. It could be that in his current (somewhat delusional) frame of mind Theon wasn't concerned about exact physical characteristics or it could be that GRRM is being intentionally vague. Either way, I don't think it's safe to assume that the two were of the same height. If we do assume this then wouldn't Howland be ruled out as well?

That being said, I think I'd prefer it were Howland as well, though for me there is more evidence to suggest Sandor. (Of course it's such a brief passage there is almost no evidence to suggest anyone.)

[Mammothsbane]

I believe this has in fact been speculated on in other Northmen Conspiracy threads. There is in fact another Liddle at the Wall as well with Jon ( a member of the NW), and I believe the Liddles were mentioned as going south with Robb as well. Clearly, they have a lot of people in positions of importance. And the added fact that they must know that at least Bran was not killed in WF shines an interesting light on some of their actions.

What are they up to? Why haven't they told anyone, even the fiercely loyal other Mountain Clans? Additionally, you have to wonder about how deep their loyalty to Stannis runs, if they can't even be bothered to mention this fact to him.

I tend to be of the opinion that Stannis is actually in a rather precarious position at the moment with other Northmen. They will use him to get rid of the Boltons, but they might not have much use for him past that. Of course, if anyone can win over their loyalty over time it is probably Stannis so you never know.

I agree with this completely. I don't think the Northmen are as loyal to Stannis as he thinks. Granted, House Mormont and House Glover have declared for him, but I can't imagine them being all gung-ho about marching South, especially after what happened last time. I see their alliance more as a matter of convenience than of actual loyalty. And really, with winter, do the Northerners really care about the Iron Throne? I could see them working with Stannis to defend the Wall though. Maybe that's the end game for Stannis.

Okay, I have a question about the mountain clans.

They were know to be quarrelsome, as it was said by Jon, but while they're with Stannis, unless I'm missing something, they didn't seem that much quarrelsome. Which is why I think that the Liddles have shared the info on Bran and Rickon with them.

What are they up to with Stannis?Do they want to reinstate the King in the North, or do they want the Starks as Wardens of the North and back in Winterfell?

Would they enter another war with Stannis?

I really cannot imagine what they would do. If they get Bran/or Rickon back, they might war against Stannis, because let's face it, they would win. Asha tells us pretty well that they are better equipped than Stannis' men in the snows, and with winter upon them, the southern lords and knights will be doomed not just in battle, but in the environment as well.

On the other hand, I have always got the impression that they had been mostly left alone and had a certain level of autonomy, both by the King in the North and the Targaryens[much like the Skaagosi]. The Boltons left them alone as well, but the Boltons turned the cloak to the north, and I am pretty sure every true north men hates them.

Also, I am very confused over which Glover is with Manderly. The one who was sent to find Howland, or the other one?

The Mountain Clans are interesting because they seem to have a strong tie to "the Ned." I don't really know what their endgame is because they are always off doing their own thing. Would the Mountain Clans really fight with Stannis outside of liberating the North? Also remember that the Boltons and Starks have warred before. The Mountain Clans (I'd assume?) fought with the Starks. Theo Wull was also part of Ned's group at the Tower of Joy, meaning the Wull's have personal ties to the Starks.. not Stannis.

Although like you said, they are their own men. Perhaps they could become enamored with Stannis and how he does things (maybe they see a little Ned in him) and could decide to fight for him, even if other major houses of the North don't.

Also, the Glover with Manderly is Robett. He is the younger brother (and heir apparent) to Galbart Glover, who was sent to Greywater Watch with Dacey Mormont. Robett Glover was part of Bolton's host at Harrenhal (with the Weasel Soup) and then got captured and released and made his way to White Harbor.

The only description Theon makes of the hooded man involves the direction he is walking, the cloak flapping behind him, and his possession of a dagger. Even when their eyes met there is no physical description provided. It could be that in his current (somewhat delusional) frame of mind Theon wasn't concerned about exact physical characteristics or it could be that GRRM is being intentionally vague. Either way, I don't think it's safe to assume that the two were of the same height. If we do assume this then wouldn't Howland be ruled out as well?

That being said, I think I'd prefer it were Howland as well, though for me there is more evidence to suggest Sandor. (Of course it's such a brief passage there is almost no evidence to suggest anyone.)

I can't imagine it being the Hound. Aside from the fact that he'd have to cross a very long distance (and half the North alone, during Winter), I don't know what would motivate Sandor to give two shits about Winterfell or the North in general. Most people like the idea that he is the gravedigger at the Quiet Isle. Assuming that's correct, he has a lame leg (as noticed by Brienne). To think Sandor went miles North in the snow by himself to take part in some enormous Northern conspiracy plot to overthrow the Bolton's just doesn't make sense to me. The travel impossibilities are also why I don't think the Hooded Man is Brynden Tully. It's just too impossible of a journey. That being said, I have no idea who the Ghost is. My personal favorite theories are Davos, Liddle, and Theon himself ("Theon Durden"). But there are holes and evidence for just about everyone suggested.

[Real Heir of Bear Island]

No one would kill theon as it would draw too much attention, however much the hooded man may hate him

Also, would leaving Theon for Ramsey really be "mercy". Killing him would be the mercy at this point. Someone who hated him would probably rather see him suffer.

[Risha]

I can't imagine it being the Hound. Aside from the fact that he'd have to cross a very long distance (and half the North alone, during Winter), I don't know what would motivate Sandor to give two shits about Winterfell or the North in general. Most people like the idea that he is the gravedigger at the Quiet Isle. Assuming that's correct, he has a lame leg (as noticed by Brienne). To think Sandor went miles North in the snow by himself to take part in some enormous Northern conspiracy plot to overthrow the Bolton's just doesn't make sense to me. The travel impossibilities are also why I don't think the Hooded Man is Brynden Tully. It's just too impossible of a journey. That being said, I have no idea who the Ghost is. My personal favorite theories are Davos, Liddle, and Theon himself ("Theon Durden"). But there are holes and evidence for just about everyone suggested.

About this^: I am not in the HM=Sandor camp, but also do not think that this is a valid argument against the theory. Assuming that he is the gravedigger, Sandor could have picked up Arya's trail far enough to find out that she had taken a ship, and surmised that she had gone to Manderly @ White Harbor; or heard about "Arya's" impending marriage and taken ship for White Harbor himself, making his overland journey to Winterfell doable.

However, I don't see Sandor as the type to participate in anyone's plans other than his own, so other theories hold more water for me. Plus, I'm still secretly hoping he'll surface in the Vale with Sansa... :kiss:

[Melifeather]

There is soooo much here to discuss. You've done a lot of work, and even with everything you've posted it still doesn't include every angle. For example, I am a supporter of the "Stannis wrote the Pink Letter", and I'd like to add that he only had the raven that flew to Winterfell available to him. That's why he pretended to be Ramsay, hoping Roose would receive the letter and forward it to the Wall. It's a Trojan Horse for Stannis. Roose will think Ramsay and the Frey/Manderley forces have been victorious and Stannis and his men can gain entrance to Winterfell disguised or assumed as Ramsay/Frey/Manderley men.