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[spoilers] The North at the end of aDwD and the start of aWoW. Summary/continuance of the Northern Lords Conspiracy, Hooded Man, Pink Letter Threads.


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What if the following happened:

One of Mance's spearwives is tortured and reveals all the Mance-related info.

Ramsay marched to battle alongside with Manderley and Frey, right?

Hell breaks loose, Manderleys turn cloak in the beginning of the battle, the host is vanquished and Ramsay is captured.

A small, like ten people, host from Manderleys return with Stannis' sword and tell Roose they have smashed Stannis, giving him the red sword as proof. They say the rest of the host is a little behind, like vanquishing remaing forces, or just being slower because of their numbers, but Ramsay was killed in battle.

Roose has no claim to WF because his bastard is dead, so his only claim is his daughter-in-law - fake Arya. He writes the letter as a desperate measure for Jon to march before fake Arya gets to the wall, because then the whole thing will be blown. he believes he will vanquish Jon just like he vanquished Stannis.

Does this make sense? I really didn't think it through very thoroughly, please point to possible holes in this scenario.

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1 My first thought was this as well. Manderly men coming behind the Frey's, Frey's march right on to the Ice cover lake and died. But wouldn't the Boltons be worried about Manderly if only his men came back, even with the sword.?

I had thought that some of the Queen's Men in Stannis' camp took the arms and clothes of the Frey soldiers. With Hosteen and Aenys dead, people aren't likely to recognize the men-at-arms, right? Even the Lords probably don't know the names/faces of every single man in their company? Maybe? It also wouldn't be that hard for Manderly's men to say "The Frey soldiers wanted the vanguard, bull rushed blind into the snow like morons and fell in traps. We were more careful."

Also, it's possible that Ramsay sent the letter before he left from Winterfell. So Manderly/Frey ride out to battle, return with Manderly's men and some "Frey" soldiers return with Stannis' sword and a story about Theon/Arya at the Wall (realistically, there is no way that Arya/Theon would have made it to the Wall that quickly. The problem is: why does the author of the letter (let's say Ramsay) think that Theon/FArya went to the Wall? Jon would kill Theon on the spot, and FArya has really no connection to Jon. Also, let's say for the sake of argument Ramsay believes that Theon/FArya went to Stannis' camp first. Ramsay has to know that they wouldn't have made it to the Wall by the time the letter arrived.. unless he sent it assuming the Wall would be their next destination).

I think I can confidently say it was NOT Theon who wrote the letter. He knows Jon Snow would not help him, considering he thinks Theon killed his two brothers. Theon really gets nothing from writing the letter.

3. If we agree that it is Ramsay, no way he could have done it while on the run. I don't remember the handwriting, whether it was a childish scrawl, or not, but I do remember it was written in maester's ink, it was noted by Jon. Anyway, Ramsay sounds awfully sure of what he's talking about[about Stannis' death and defeat], he feels at ease, and reckless. Although it could be send on the run, but there would not be a point.

Except, Ramsay could only have Mance and want to draw Jon down there because he knows it would mean Jon's death.

I am of the belief that Ramsay doesn't know how to read and write. I think that the "big, spiky hand" that Ramsay writes was his own, but heavily guided by a Maester. The hand-writting discrepancy is interesting though. It's one of the major points against it being Ramsay who sent the letter. Ramsay is reckless and short-sighted enough to write a letter like this though, especially after just being fed information about how his host destroyed Stannis'. He just won a big victory (he thinks) and can't celebrate with a skinning/rape... he would probably be a little heated

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What if the following happened:

One of Mance's spearwives is tortured and reveals all the Mance-related info.

Ramsay marched to battle alongside with Manderley and Frey, right?

Hell breaks loose, Manderleys turn cloak in the beginning of the battle, the host is vanquished and Ramsay is captured.

A small, like ten people, host from Manderleys return with Stannis' sword and tell Roose they have smashed Stannis, giving him the red sword as proof. They say the rest of the host is a little behind, like vanquishing remaing forces, or just being slower because of their numbers, but Ramsay was killed in battle.

Roose has no claim to WF because his bastard is dead, so his only claim is his daughter-in-law - fake Arya. He writes the letter as a desperate measure for Jon to march before fake Arya gets to the wall, because then the whole thing will be blown. he believes he will vanquish Jon just like he vanquished Stannis.

Does this make sense? I really didn't think it through very thoroughly, please point to possible holes in this scenario.

I would switch the roles of Roose and Ramsay. No way would Roose believe Stannis was dead if the soldiers that come back have his sword and a couple of heads. But Ramsay will believe that eagerly. Also, if Ramsay believes that Theon and Farya went to Stannis and sent them to the Wall, that would explain the letter.

Of course I am the one that thinks that all of this "the Battle of WF" wont be much. It will be bloody, but it won't settle anything. Not so early in aWoW.

Well, the only thing I hope will be clear is whether Stannis survived or not. Of course nothing else will be resolved. We don't know whether Manderly's even alive, and even if he is, he will not swear fealty until Rickon is back in WF. And I think we'll have a whole arc of Davos based on that quest. Davos will not come back so quickly[i think] from Skaagos.

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To start thanks to everyone who posted to the original Northern Lords Conspiracy, Hooded Man, and Pink Letter threads for having already highlighted most of this information. You are to numerous to mention but you know who you are, and though you are not cited by name you deserve the credit for having already pointed much of this out.

What follows is my effort to synthesize much of the information available in the Northern Lords Conspiracy Thread, the Hooded Man Thread, and the numerous Pink Letter Threads. Hopefully this post, along w/ edits and additions to the thread, can help clarify how things currently stand in the North at the end of aDwD and the start of aWoW. There are a couple of things I’ve missed and no doubt there are some things that are incorrect. Any feedback, edits, or additions (like the current status at the wall, which I have not included) would be greatly appreciated.

The Leech Lord, The Bastard, and Pie Meat.

Roose Bolton

Title: Lord of the Dreadfort and Warden of the North

Men-at-arms: 5,000 – 6,000

5,000 to 6,000 total within Winterfell (theon sample chapter). Roose marched north w/ an estimated 3,600 Northmen mostly form the Dreadfort and 1,000 Frey men (Reek/Theon p.266 aDwD) putting his Numbers around 4,600.

If this is correct than Roose added approximately 400-1400 additional forces upon returning to the North putting his strength in Winterfell at 5,000 to 6,000.

Traits: Known for being cunning, skilled, and ruthless commander.

Last Seen: In the Great Hall of Winterfell.

Notes: Roose indicates to Theon that he knows “Manderly plots betrayal” (Reek p.430)

Ramsay Bolton

Title: Lord of Hornwood, Lord of Winterfell, Castellan of the Dreadfort

Men-at-arms:

Unknown but Theon estimated the combined forces of Ramsay, the Freys and Manderlys was half of Roose’s total force of 5-6,000. If Manderly and Frey both have 1,000 men Ramasy would have no more than 500-1000 men producing a combined force of 2,500 to 3,000.

Traits: Cruel, cunning, and sadistic. His fetishes overwhelm his intelligence.

Last Seen: In the Great Hall of Winterfell

Notes:

Ramsay is disliked by essentially all of the Northern Lords. Roose indicates to Theon that Ramsay is a poor fighter and an unskilled swordsman.

Hosteen Frey

Title: Ser.

Men-at-arms: 1,000

Theon estimated the Freys had 1,000 men as they marched north with Roose Bolton. This included 100 knights and a plethora of bowman, spearman, freeriders.

Traits: Know for being strong, and capable fighter, he’s also thought of as stupid.

Last Seen:

Leaving the Great Hall of the Winterfell after revealing the death of Little Walder and stabbing Wyman Manderly to amass the Frey forces at the main gate of Winterfell.

Last Reference:

Hosteen and Aenys Frey reportedly fell into Mors Umber’s pit trap outside the main gate of winterfell. Hosteen’s horse died and Aenys broke his neck joining Hosteen’s horse in death.

Notes:

The North Remembers, Frey. In the Theon sample chapter form AWOW it’s reported to Stannis by Tycho and confirmed by Theon that the Freys exited Winterfell, falling into a trap set by Mors Umber. Aenys Frey is reported to have fallen and died from a broken neck, Hosteen Frey survived but his horse didn’t. It is unknown what the Freys did after falling into Mors trap.

“Arya Stark”

It is repeatedly noted that Arya Stark is key to the Bolton claim to Winterfell and the allegiance of the Northern Lords.

It’s know throughout Winterfell that “Arya” is being mistreated, Lady Dustin mentions that “Lady Arya’s sobs do us more harm than all of Stannis’ swords and spears” (“The Turncloak” aDwD p.545).

“Arya” has escaped and there is no longer a “Stark” in Winterfell.

Theon makes a huge issue about her eyes, and Arya is said to have looked the most like her father and thus the most like a Stark. There are numerous individuals that likely recognize “Arya” is a fake. Mance for one. In in aSoS he knew who Jon was because he attended the feast for King Robert. While Jon stood out for having made a bit of a fool of himself, and talking to Benjen Stark, he was not w/ the rest of the Stark children and he notes that he was on the opposite side of the hall away from the singer/musicians (i.e. Mance). “A singer was playing the high harp and reciting a ballad, but down at this end of the hall his voice could scarcely be heard above the roar of the fire, the clangor of pewter plates and cups, and the low mutter of a hundred drunken conversations.” (Jon 1 aGoT p.31)Thus even though Jon was isolated away from the other Starks and on the opposite side of the Great Hall, Mance still recognized who he was and remembered him nearly 2 years later (estimate based on the awesome timeline thread). The Cerwyns because of their proximity to Winterfell should recognize “Arya.” Theon also seems to think Lady Dustin knows “Arya” is a fake.

Northern Lords known to oppose the Boltons

Wyman Manderly

Title:

Lord of White Harbor, Warden of the White Knife, Shield of the Faith, Defender of the Dispossessed, Lord Marshal of the Mander, A Knight of the Order of the Green Hand.

Men-at-arms:

Unknown. It seems safe to assume that the Manderlys have a force of comparable strength as the Freys, near 1,000.

Traits: jolly, fat old man who is believed to be craven.

Last seen:

Blubbering on the floor of the Great Keep of Winterfell after having been stabbed through many of his numerous chins. He was being assisted by lord Locke and Measters Medrick formerly of Hornwood in Winterfell. Wyman’s health is unknown. Roose commanded the Manderly to collect his forces at the Eastern Gate of Winterfell to strike the first blow at Stannis. There has been no confirmation whether or not Manderly’s men have left Winterfell.

Notes:

Manderly and Ramsay have beef:

Ramsay killed Lady Hornwood in a most aweful manner. Lady Hornwood was Wyman’s cousin, a women he wished to marry – never mind the whole cousin thing. His offer seems to be the only one that wasn’t based on greedy self-interest, seeing as he’s plenty wealthy without the Hornwood claim.

Manderly Knows:

He knows that Roose lies about his role in the Red Wedding, and Ramsay lies about his role in the sacking of Winterfell (Davos aDwD p.392).

Manderly is plotting betrayal:

Manderly, Davos and Robett Glover have conspired to locate Rickon on Skagos and return him to White Harbor/Winterfell.

Wex:

Manderly and Glover somehow received Theon’s former squire an Iron Born boy named Wex. Though he lacks speech, he knows yes and no, he also witnessed what happened during the sacking of Winterfell. Robett is teaching him to learn more of what actually transpired in Winterfell.

Umber Connections:

Wyman and the Umbers (both Whoresbane and Crowfood) were put to work building a fleet for Robb (Bran aCoK p.255-256). There is also a possible link based on how Robett tells Davos of how Wex had come to them (Davos aDwD p. 392).

Northern Lords and Ladies of questionable allegiance

Lady Barbary Dustin

Title: Lady of Barrowtown.

Men-at-arms:

Unknown. She indicates that she did not send many men south with Robb. Her personal strength is likely augmented by her Ryswell relatives’ forces. Harwood Stout is also a bannerman of loyal to House Dustin.

Traits: Stern, bitter and known to nurse a grudge.

Last seen:

the Solar of Winterfell during the interrogation of Theon (in “A Ghost in Winterfell”)

Notes:

Lady Dustin hates Ned Stark and Catelyn Tully. She also hates Ramsay Bolton. Oh and maesters.

Rodrik Ryswell

Title: Lord of the Rills.

Men-at-arms: Unknown. It is known that his cousins are also present in Winterfell.

Traits: He and his cousins are known as quarrelsome.

Last seen:

I’m not sure. The wiki says he was present at the interrogation of theon in the “A Ghost in Winterfell” chapter, but when I checked the text it refers to Roger Ryswell not Rodrik. I think the last time Rodrik is seen at the wedding in “The Prince of Winterfell” chapter and even then I’m not certain he is specifically referenced.

Notes:

The Ryswells were the first Northern Lords to declare for Roose Bolton. Roose was married to a Ryswell who gave birth to his heir, Domeric Bolton. It is believed that Ramsay killed him. This probably doesn’t sit well w/ the quarrelsome Ryswells.

Hother Whoresbane Umber

Title: Co-Castellan of Last Hearth

Men-at-arms: The few remaining grey beards at Last Hearth.

Traits:

disemboweling those he doesn’t like. See for example his namesake and Lady Dustin’s comment to Aenys Frey, “If you did not hold the GreatJon, he would pull out your entrails and make you eat them.”

Last seen: The Great Hall of Winterfell.

Notes:

GreatJon Umber is held captive at the Twins, it is well known this is the only reason Whoresbane has declared for the Boltons. At the harvest in aCoK the Umbers and Manderlys set about clandestinely building a fleet of ships for Robb.

Lord Ondrew Locke

Title: Lord of Old Castle

Men-at-arms: Unknown

Traits: Old and toothless.

Last seen:

calling for a Maester to assist Lord Wyman after he was stabbed by Hosteen Frey.

Notes:

An unknown Locke expressed a distaste for Ramsay at White Harbor. He seemed to care for Wyman’s health, so he’s got that going for him.

Wild Cards

Mance Rayder (and the Spearwives)

Title: King Beyond The Wall.

Spearwives: Rowan, Holly, Squirrel, Fryena, Myrtle, and Willow Witch-eye.

Traits: His appearance is unremarkable, he’s skilled at combat and persuasion.

Last Seen:

Mance is last seen sitting cross-legged on the high table in the Great Hall of Winterfell playing a sad soft song that theon didn’t recognize.

Rowan, Myrtle and Willow were last seen heading back toward the Great Keep of Winterfell to regroup w/ Mance.

Fryena was last seen fighting half a dozen guards on the drawbridge between the inner and outer walls of Winterfell.

Holly was last seen falling from the battlements of the outer wall of Winterfell after being hit by two crossbow quarrels one in the stomach the other in the chest.

Squirrel was last seen in the bedchambers of the Great Keep of Winterfell.

Last Referenced:

Mance and the spearwives are last referenced in the Pink Letter, the Letter is however shrouded in mystery. Taken at face value Mance is in cage in the yard of winterfell wearing the skins of the 6 spearwives. I find this head to believe.

Notes:

Mance selected the spearwives specifically for his ploy. Freyna was able overpower a guard, disarm and kill him, as well as take on half a dozen Men-at-arms with only a spear. Mance is a skilled swordsman he neutralized Jon’s Valyrian Steel advantage in the yard of Castle Black. He defeated 5 rivals for the title of King Beyond The Wall. 3 he killed in combat and he persuaded the other 2 (Tormund Gaintsbane and Styr, the Magnar of Thenn) and he still had to convince tens of thousands more to become King Beyond the Wall.

Arnolf Karstark

Title: Castellan of Karhold

Men-at-arms: 400 spearmen, two score archers, dozen mounted lances.

Traits: Treacherous.

Last seen: Being taken away by Stannis’s to await the King’s Justice.

Notes:

Karstark declared for Stannis but it is known that he intended to turn cloak for the Boltons. Karstark’s treachery was discovered by Jon Snow because of Alys Karstark. Jon sent word via Tycho Nestori to Stannis. Stannis has Karstark and his men under guard awaiting justice. As far as we know the Bolton’s don’t know that their plot w/ Alford has been found out.

Mors Umber

Title: Co-Castellan.

Men-at-arms: The few remaining greenboys left at Last Hearth.

Traits: Big, old, badass w/ only one-eye and a huge bears pelt that wears about town.

Last seen: Outside the walls of Winterfell Grinning at the prospect of getting to kill some Freys.

Notes:

When Stannis asks Jon if Mors can be trusted Jon’s response is “Your Grace should have him swear an oath before his heart tree.” (Jon aDwD p.223)

Mors declared for Stannis on the basis that Stannis deliver Mance’s Skull a pardon for Whoresbane (Jon aDwD p.223).

Mors has declared for Stannis. Mors made it to Winterfell by “The Ghost in Winterfell” chapter having been mistaken by those inside Winterfell for being Stannis. Mors uses storm cover to dig a pit trap in front of the Main Gate of Winterfell and starts sounding his war horn and drums. Mors captures Theon and “Arya” beneath the outer walls of Winterfell. Mors gets word that the main gate is opening, we learn later that the Freys exited Winterfell only to fall into Mors trap. Aenys Frey fell and broke his neck dying form his injuries, Hosteen Frey survived but lost his horse. At some point after this time Tycho Nestori arrives outside Winterfell and meets with Mors, who sends the Braavosi Banker to Stannis. The exact chronology is hazy. It’s not clear what happened between the Freys exiting Winterfell and Tycho’s arrival.

Tycho Nestori

Title: Representative of the Iron Bank of Braavos.

Men-at-Arms: 2 men of the Nights Watch, 6 Iron Born.

Traits: Tall, graceful.

Last Seen: Preparing to leave Stannis camp in the unknown village by the lake.

Notes:

At the Wall Tycho met w/ Jon who sent him with 2 men of the Watch to find Stannis, Jon also sent Stannis word of Karstarks treachery. Tycho made it to Deepwood Motte after Strannis has Departed for Winterfell. He ransomed the Iron Born hostages Lady Glover held and sett out for Winterfell. Tycho made it Winterfell where he met w/ Mors Umber. Received Theon and “Arya” and word that the Frey’s had fallen into Mors trap and continued onto Stannis. Tycho reached Stannis delivered the hostages and information and treated with him until they came to terms on some outstanding debts held by the Throne and some new ones incurred by Stannis. Tycho is preparing to leave for home by way of the wall accompanied by Ser Massey, “Arya” and Alysane Mormont.

Surviving Stark Children.

Bran, Bloodraven and the old gods beyond the Wall.

Sansa and Littlefinger in the Vale.

Arya in Braavos w/ the Faceless Men.

Rickon, Osha and Shaggydog on Skagos.

The King at the Wall/Unknown Village:

Stannis Baratheon

Title: Lord of Dragonstone, Lord Paramount of the Stormlands, King of Westeros.

Men-at-Arms: 4000-6000

The majority of Stannis’ host is comprised of Northerners. There are an estimate 3000-4000 form the Mountain Clans (Flints, Liddles, Wulls, and Norreys). Big Bucket Wull has a passion for verse and a lyrical desire to split the heads of Boltons (p.562 aDwD). The Glovers, Mormonts, Tallharts, Cerwyns, Hornwoods all have men in Stannis’s host. The Karstarks have 400 men of questionable loyalty. The rest of Stannis host is comprised of the southern knights from the Stromlands who have remained loyal to Stannis.

Traits: Lacks people skills. A great Commander, tactician, known to be cautious.

Last Seen:

Stannis is still in the unknown village 3 west of Winterfell (Theon aWoW sample chapter).

Timeline:

According to Asha’s and Theon’s POV’s Stannis’ host has been marching from Deepwood Mote to Winterfell for 53/54 days(Asha “Sacrifice” ends on the night of the 53rd day of the trek, Theon’s aWoW sample chapter takes place during the next morning). Asha brakes it down into 34 days of marching (p. 560-562 aDwD), and 19/20 days camping (p.815aDwD, Theon Sample Chapter aWoW). Asha indicates Karstark had been w/ Stannis for 8 days (p.817), on the night that Tycho et al. arrive at the unknown village (p. 826). This means that Mors has been outside of winterfell for at least 8 days by the time Theon and “Arya” escape, even though he had only announced his presence the night before (Theon “A Ghost in Winterfell” p.614). This also means that the Karstarks had been w/ Stannis for 5 days by the time Theon and “Arya” escaped which is the same morning that Karstarks raven/map was received at Winterfell.

Notes:

The Unknown Village: Stannis is located in an unknown village next to a lake w/ an island. The Island has a godswood. The village is a Three day ride from Winterfell.

Tycho Nestori: Treats w/ stannis delivering information that the Karstarks plan treachery, he all also brings Theon and “Arya.” The Stannis and the Banker agree to terms and he prepares to return to the Wall. The fact that Tycho is w/ Stannis means 3 days have elapsed since Theon and “Arya” escaped at the end of aDwD.

Karstrak: Stannis learning of Arnolf’s treachery, has the Karstarks taken captive. Arnolf his son and grandsons are being held to face the Kings Justice. Stannis is told the Karstark men-at-arms claim to lack any knowledge of a plot, he is also told that the camp

Ser Massey: Stannis commands Massey to escort Tycho, “Arya” and Aly Mormont to the Wall, he is then to continue w/ Tycho across the Narrow Sea to raise an army of 20,000 sellswords. Preferably the Gold Company (oh the Irony). Stannis tells Massey that he may hear of Stannis’ untimely demise but that he is to carry on w/ his mission raising an army to place Shireen on the Iron Throne.

Asha: Asha meets w/ Stannis to plead mercy for her brother. Asking that if he must kill theon that he do it by his own sword at the godswood on the island of the lake next to the unknown village. The ravens concur.

The Northerners: Stannis indicates that the mountain clans wish to meet w/ him to discuss theon’s head and vengeance for their “precious Ned.” Stannis appears to be dismissive and contemptuous of them. They were last to get an audience w/ stannis and we don’t know if they ever do w/ the chapter ending w/ asha and the ravens.

Clayton Suggs: Suggs shows a good understanding of Northern heraldry for a southerner from flea bottom (p.223 aDwD).

Other Northern Houses

Glovers:

House Glover has refused to ally w/ the Boltons. They’re keeping their options open.

Robett Glover: is conspiring w/ Wyman Manderly and Davos Seaworth to locate Rickon Stark and Shaggydog believed to be in Skagos. Robett is last known to be in White Harbor teaching Wex to figure out more about Rickon and what happened to Winterfell.

Galbart Glover: is believed to be somewhere in the Neck searching for Greywater Watch and Howland Reed to deliver a message form Robb Stark. Maege Mormont is on a similar mission.

Lady Sybelle (Locke) Glover (Robett’s wife): has been reinstated as the Lady of Deepwood Motte, by Stannis who took it from Asha Greyjoy. She has sent “many” Glover men w/ Stannis according to her Wiki page. She also ransomed 6 Iron Born captives to the Braavosi banker Tycho Nestori.

Mormonts:

The Women of House Mormont, the She-Bears, remains fiercely loyal to the Starks.

Maege Mormont: is believed to be somewhere in the Neck searching for Greywater Watch and Howland Reed to deliver a message form Robb Stark. Galbart Glover is on a similar mission.

Alysane Mormont: Is currently w/ Stannis and is likely preparing to leave w/ “Arya” Ser Massey, Tycho Nestoi and their escort back to the Wall.

Tallharts:

The surviving Tallharts are being held captive at Torrhen’s Square by the Iron Born.

There are Tallharts in Winterfell among the Bolton host as well as w/ Stannis.

Cerwyns:

Jonella Cerwyn is the Lady Cerwyn following the death of her father Medger Cerwyn. Jon notes Lady Cerwyn’s signature accompanied Ramsay’s letter inviting Northern Lords to his wedding to “Arya.” (p.377 aDwD) There are Cerwyn men w/ Stannis and within Winterfell.

Hornwoods:

It is noted that Hornwood men are inside Winterfell. Though Hornwood men are now sworn to House Bolton it is also noted in the text that they are not likely to be loyal to the man who kidnapped, raped, forcibly married their liege Lady before locking her in a tower and starving her to death. There are Hornwood men w/ both the Boltons and Stannis.

Flints:

The Flints of Flint Fingers:

Theon notices (in the “The Prince of Winterfell”) the Banner of the House of Flint of Flint’s Fingers on the walls of Winterfell during the feast at winterfell after the wedding of Ramsay and “Arya.” There are no known members of this branch of the family.

The First Flints:

The First Flints are a mountain clan, according to Old Nan the Starks and First Flints are related. The First Flints are w/ Stannis.

The Flints of Widow’s Watch:

Lady Lyessa Flint wasn’t present at the Harvest fest (pregnancy) nor is there any sing of the Flints of Widow’s Watch at Winterfell. Robin Flint the grown son of Lyessa was killed in the RW as one of Robb’s bodyguards and he accompanied Catelyn when she met with Renly – suggesting a closeness to the Starks.

Reeds:

House Reed has been conspicuously absent. Meera and Jojen appeared at the Harvest Fest at Winterfell in aCoK and led Bran north to Bloodraven. Galber Glover and Maege Mormont were both sent by Robb to find Howland Reed at Greywater Watch. They both are traveling w/ documents from Robb believed to address his succession as King of the North and Jon’s legitimacy as a Stark. Little is known about the Reeds but they have remained largely on the sidelines during the War of Five Kings.

Thenn:

House Thenn is the creation of Jon Snon, formed out of the marriage of Alys Karstark (one of the most awesome characters in the entire series) and Signor the Magnar of Thenn. Signor has 200 Thenns, and 2 of Cregan Karstarks men who upon making it to Castle Black swore their fealty to Alys. Jon indicates to Cregan that Alys believes she can get Karhold to yield to her.

The Hooded Man

There are many theories swirling around about the identity the Hooded Man (“A Ghost in Winterfell” aDwD p.610-611).

Davos

The case for Davos:

He’s part of Manderly’s conspiracy. He could recognize Theon based on his clothing, and having lost some fingers it may explain why Theon willingly exposed something he otherwise hides form everyone. And if Davos is the hoodedman it might explain why he left Theon to Ramsay instead of killing him.

The case against Davos:

I don’t see Davos laughing at someone being tortured by Ramsay even someone like Theon. It would make more sense for Robett Glover to make the trip considering it’s winter and he’s a northerner and Davos isn’t.

Robett Glover

The case for Robett:

He’s part of Manderly’s plot. He knows the north and would be able to travel to Winterfell more easily than Davos.

The case against Robett:

He could likely send someone form Manderly’s court w/ out any need for all the secrecy. Hiding in the open would also reduce the risk of traveling clandestinely through the north in winter in essentially enemy territory.

Galbart Glover,

The case for Galbart

He’s been searching for Greywater watch for a long time. The fact that he’s unaccounted for seems to be the primary argument for his inclusion as a possible candidate.

The case against Galbart

It’s hard to believe Galbart wouldn’t kill Theon on the spot.

An Unknown Liddle

The case for Liddle

Bran, Hodor, and the Reeds came across a Liddle on their travels north. Not all all of the Liddles are w/ Stannis. A Liddle knowing that Theon hadn’t actually killed Bran might show him the mercy of leaving him to Ramsay instead of killing him on the spot.

Ryswell Scout

The case for a Ryswell scout

Roose Ryswell mentions the scouts keep going missing in the chapter in which the Hoodedman appears (“A Ghost in Winterfell”). A scout is more likely than most of the options to be admitted into Winterfell. Ryswells may have reason to plot treachery w/ the Umbers other Northern Lords.

Unknown Umber-man

The case for a unknown Umber-man

Mors is outside of Winterfell. Hother is inside Winterfell. It’s reasonable to assume that they are communicating in some way, an unknown person inside Winterfell might be the means of communication between the two Umbers. It also would explain why Theon’s description of the Hoodedman and Mors seem to be of two different people. And I picture Mors as a Tall man that’s at least a head taller than Theon thus they would come face to face. Therefore if the Hoodedman is an Umber I doubt it’s Mors himself.

Blackfish

The case for Blackfish

He’s related to the Starks via Cat and is still loyal to Robb. He escaped Riverrun. It’s plausible he might try and save his niece’s daughter from Ramsay.

The case against Blackfish

He’d kill theon on sight. It’s hard to see how see how he made all the way to Winterfell traveling through the Riverlands crawling w/ Lannisters and Freys, The Neck/Moat Calin held by the Iron Born or Boltons, and Barrowlands, Cerwyn lands and Stark lands all crawling w/ Boltons.

Raynald Westerling

The case for Raynald Westerling

He escaped the Red Wedding. Appeared to be loyal to Robb and Greywind. It’s plausible he would try and save Robb’s sister and exact some revenge on the Freys and Boltons.

The case against Raynald

Is the same as the case against Blackfish. If he traveled all that way for vengeance why let Theon live and how’s it even possible for him to have made the trek, injured as he was when he escaped the RW.

Benjen Stark

The case for Benjen Stark

He’s a Stark that’s not accounted for and who would be able to access any secret passage. I think that’s the only reason given.

The case against Benjen

Theon would not live if he were to pass in front of Benjen Stark. His vows and his being north of the Wall all cast doubt on his candidacy.

Alliser Thorne

The case for Alliser Thorne

He’s off ranging which means he could be anywhere, he hates Jon Snow and seems loyal to Lannisters therefore he could be meeting w/ Bolton to plot some treachery at the Wall.

The case against Alliser Thore

He’s beyond the Wall, his ranger brothers would presumably stop him if he were to head south. It’s hard to explain how he would have anyway of knowing what’s going on in Winterfell if he’s ranging.

The Pink Letter

Ramsay

The Case For:

Ramsay is the obvious first option, the letter appears to be from him. He has motive: Reek, “Arya.” He has the means: he’s in Winterfell w/ three maesters and bunch of ravens one must go to Castle Black. He also has the ability to access all the information referenced in the letter.

The Case Against:

Wasting time flaying 6 women and sending a letter announcing to entire realm that “Arya” has escaped instead of just hunting her down and capturing her doesn’t make much sense. It doesn’t seem like something Roose would allow, it’s an unnecessary admission and a waste of time. Roose would keep something like this quite not announce it to the realm. If Ramsay were the author/alive it would seem like a.) there would have been some sign of Ramsay pursuing them and there would have been some confirmation that Ramsay had actually left Winterfell as opposed to just Theon’s assumption that he would be coming for him and “Arya.” And b.) why would ramsay assume they could make it to Jon before he could capture them, he’s a good hunter and knows that it would take a long time to travel north form Winterfell to Castle Black during Winter. Again why waste the time and admit she’s gone?

Stannis

The Case For:

Motive: He needs back up. He has some ploy concocted w/ Mel for which the letter is a piece.

Means: he’d have to know about Mance, he’d have to have access to some ravens, hoping either the Karhold birds are trained to go to Castle Black or that the Night’s Watchmen who escorted Tycho have a bird w/ them.

The Case Against:

Many question his motive and if he would be as underhanded and deceptive w/ Jon Snow. There’s also the question of whether or not he has any ravens that would fly to Castle Black or if he knows about Mance and the Spearwives.

Mance and Northern Lords

The Case For: They have the Motive and the Means as I’ve argued elsewhere. See the Mance FTW thread: http://asoiaf.wester...2869-mance-ftw/, there is also a good case for the Northern Lords authoring the Pink Letter based on many of the same arguments but without Mance.

The Case Against:

It’s hard to believe the North would ally w/ Mance. The letter says the Mance is in a cage. Many doubt that Northern Lords would call on Jon Snow in such a manner. How he responds to the letter is pretty unpredictable and if they really wanted him to come on down they could have come up w/ something better than – “hey f-you bastard, wanna die? Meet my crazy demands or else.”

Nights Watch Conspiracy

The Case For:

There are clearly a number of “Sworn Brothers” who take their vows a little less seriously than others, they also happen to hate Jon Snow. They could have the knowledge of Mance and the spearwives and the means to carryout such a plot.

The Case Against:

The conspirators against Jon don’t really gain much. They already have plenty of proof that he’s letting wildlings through the Wall, and they don’t have anyway of predicting he would break his vows and run off to save his sister. And if they were going to go to the trouble of setting him up creating a legal pretext for his removal as Lord Commander and arrest/beheading for breaking his vows why stab him in the back?

Wow, lots of work! :drunk:

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What if the following happened:

One of Mance's spearwives is tortured and reveals all the Mance-related info.

Ramsay marched to battle alongside with Manderley and Frey, right?

Hell breaks loose, Manderleys turn cloak in the beginning of the battle, the host is vanquished and Ramsay is captured.

A small, like ten people, host from Manderleys return with Stannis' sword and tell Roose they have smashed Stannis, giving him the red sword as proof. They say the rest of the host is a little behind, like vanquishing remaing forces, or just being slower because of their numbers, but Ramsay was killed in battle.

Roose has no claim to WF because his bastard is dead, so his only claim is his daughter-in-law - fake Arya. He writes the letter as a desperate measure for Jon to march before fake Arya gets to the wall, because then the whole thing will be blown. he believes he will vanquish Jon just like he vanquished Stannis.

Does this make sense? I really didn't think it through very thoroughly, please point to possible holes in this scenario.

I don't remember Ramsay being dispatched with the army. I thought it was just Frey/Manderly/Umber contingent. I'd have to check again though. I don't think Roose would take the bait as eagerly as Ramsay would though. And, if it was Roose who sent the letter, why claim to be Ramsay? I think Roose, Warden of the North is a much more intimidating signature that Ramsay. Roose is also much more composed and particular with his plans. I don't think he'd send out this letter with threats based on unconfirmed information (like Ramsay would do).

I would switch the roles of Roose and Ramsay. No way would Roose believe Stannis was dead if the soldiers that come back have his sword and a couple of heads. But Ramsay will believe that eagerly. Also, if Ramsay believes that Theon and Farya went to Stannis and sent them to the Wall, that would explain the letter.

Well, the only thing I hope will be clear is whether Stannis survived or not. Of course nothing else will be resolved. We don't know whether Manderly's even alive, and even if he is, he will not swear fealty until Rickon is back in WF. And I think we'll have a whole arc of Davos based on that quest. Davos will not come back so quickly[i think] from Skaagos.

That's another interesting aspect of the whole North plot. Manderly has never indicated that he'd go to war for Stannis. He never even mentions that he supports Stannis' claim. I remember in the Davos chapter Robett Glover calls Stannis 'your (Davos') king, not ours' or something like that. I honestly don't think the North, if Rickon returns from Skagos, would pledge fealty to Stannis. I mean, Stannis did liberate them from the Boltons and Freys, but would they really ride South to war to win Stannis the throne, especially now that winter has come? Also, would they want to be subjects again? Mormont says their only king is Stark and Manderly just wants to kill Freys for murdering his son. I don't see this grand North/Stannis alliance happening quite so neatly.

Of course, I hope they do, since I'm a Stannis fan, but who knows.

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I don't remember Ramsay being dispatched with the army. I thought it was just Frey/Manderly/Umber contingent. I'd have to check again though. I don't think Roose would take the bait as eagerly as Ramsay would though. And, if it was Roose who sent the letter, why claim to be Ramsay? I think Roose, Warden of the North is a much more intimidating signature that Ramsay. Roose is also much more composed and particular with his plans. I don't think he'd send out this letter with threats based on unconfirmed information (like Ramsay would do).

That's another interesting aspect of the whole North plot. Manderly has never indicated that he'd go to war for Stannis. He never even mentions that he supports Stannis' claim. I remember in the Davos chapter Robett Glover calls Stannis 'your (Davos') king, not ours' or something like that. I honestly don't think the North, if Rickon returns from Skagos, would pledge fealty to Stannis. I mean, Stannis did liberate them from the Boltons and Freys, but would they really ride South to war to win Stannis the throne, especially now that winter has come? Also, would they want to be subjects again? Mormont says their only king is Stark and Manderly just wants to kill Freys for murdering his son. I don't see this grand North/Stannis alliance happening quite so neatly.

Of course, I hope they do, since I'm a Stannis fan, but who knows.

Now you've got me wondering the same thing. But Manderly does say that he'll pledge fealty to Stannis if Davos brings back Rickon.

However, it could be that Manderly wants Rickon back to make Rickon King in the North.

But, if Jon comes down with a wildling army supporting Stannis, then the North would follow Jon. May be it was Stannis who wrote the letter-hence there's no stamp on the wax-to bring Jon to Winterfell so that he could win the alliance of the North.

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I don't remember Ramsay being dispatched with the army. I thought it was just Frey/Manderly/Umber contingent. I'd have to check again though. I don't think Roose would take the bait as eagerly as Ramsay would though. And, if it was Roose who sent the letter, why claim to be Ramsay? I think Roose, Warden of the North is a much more intimidating signature that Ramsay. Roose is also much more composed and particular with his plans. I don't think he'd send out this letter with threats based on unconfirmed information (like Ramsay would do).

That's another interesting aspect of the whole North plot. Manderly has never indicated that he'd go to war for Stannis. He never even mentions that he supports Stannis' claim. I remember in the Davos chapter Robett Glover calls Stannis 'your (Davos') king, not ours' or something like that. I honestly don't think the North, if Rickon returns from Skagos, would pledge fealty to Stannis. I mean, Stannis did liberate them from the Boltons and Freys, but would they really ride South to war to win Stannis the throne, especially now that winter has come? Also, would they want to be subjects again? Mormont says their only king is Stark and Manderly just wants to kill Freys for murdering his son. I don't see this grand North/Stannis alliance happening quite so neatly.

Of course, I hope they do, since I'm a Stannis fan, but who knows.

The Northern Lords may not pledge fealty to Stannis, but if they pledge to Rickon or Jon and they pledge to Stannis they will support him. Also Stannis does not want them to march south with him, he wants them to garrison the Wall with him.

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I had thought that some of the Queen's Men in Stannis' camp took the arms and clothes of the Frey soldiers1. With Hosteen and Aenys dead, people aren't likely to recognize the men-at-arms, right? Even the Lords probably don't know the names/faces of every single man in their company? Maybe? It also wouldn't be that hard for Manderly's men to say "The Frey soldiers wanted the vanguard, bull rushed blind into the snow like morons and fell in traps. We were more careful."

Also, it's possible that Ramsay sent the letter before he left from Winterfell. So Manderly/Frey ride out to battle, return with Manderly's men and some "Frey" soldiers return with Stannis' sword and a story about Theon/Arya at the Wall 2(realistically, there is no way that Arya/Theon would have made it to the Wall that quickly. The problem is: why does the author of the letter (let's say Ramsay) think that Theon/FArya went to the Wall? Jon would kill Theon on the spot, and FArya has really no connection to Jon. Also, let's say for the sake of argument Ramsay believes that Theon/FArya went to Stannis' camp first. Ramsay has to know that they wouldn't have made it to the Wall by the time the letter arrived.. unless he sent it assuming the Wall would be their next destination).

1 Don't remember that, but OK I'd buy that.

2 goes with what I was saying. They could say that Theon/FArya wasn't there, which would make Ramsey think that would be where they would go.

That's another interesting aspect of the whole North plot. Manderly has never indicated that he'd go to war for Stannis. He never even mentions that he supports Stannis' claim. I remember in the Davos chapter Robett Glover calls Stannis 'your (Davos') king, not ours' or something like that. I honestly don't think the North, if Rickon returns from Skagos, would pledge fealty to Stannis3. I mean, Stannis did liberate them from the Boltons and Freys, but would they really ride South to war to win Stannis the throne, especially now that winter has come? Also, would they want to be subjects again? Mormont says their only king is Stark and Manderly just wants to kill Freys for murdering his son. I don't see this grand North/Stannis alliance happening quite so neatly.

Now you've got me wondering the same thing. But Manderly does say that he'll pledge fealty to Stannis if Davos brings back Rickon3.

3 We have discussed this a lot on the older threads. What he says is he will pledge fealty to Stannis if Davos bring back his Liege Lord. First theory is that Manderly means Bran, so that after getting Rickon, Davos will have to go after Bran (and no one know where he is) Second theory is that he is talking about Jon, that Manderly knows what is in Robbs will. True answer is not clear.

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3 We have discussed this a lot on the older threads. What he says is he will pledge fealty to Stannis if Davos bring back his Liege Lord. First theory is that Manderly means Bran, so that after getting Rickon, Davos will have to go after Bran (and no one know where he is) Second theory is that he is talking about Jon, that Manderly knows what is in Robbs will. True answer is not clear.

I didn't realize that! I forgot that yes, Wex had proof that Bran was alive too!

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Now you've got me wondering the same thing. But Manderly does say that he'll pledge fealty to Stannis if Davos brings back Rickon.

However, it could be that Manderly wants Rickon back to make Rickon King in the North.

But, if Jon comes down with a wildling army supporting Stannis, then the North would follow Jon. May be it was Stannis who wrote the letter-hence there's no stamp on the wax-to bring Jon to Winterfell so that he could win the alliance of the North.

This damn letter is too ambiguous... although Stannis doesn't know that Tormund's band has crossed the Wall. I can't remember how many Wildling fighters were at the Wall when Stannis left. Would it have been enough to make a difference in a battle? I know there were a lot of women and children, can't remember how many fighters (and I don't have the book on me)

The Northern Lords may not pledge fealty to Stannis, but if they pledge to Rickon or Jon and they pledge to Stannis they will support him. Also Stannis does not want them to march south with him, he wants them to garrison the Wall with him.

I didn't know Stannis intended to have them garrison the Wall. I thought he was going to use them to try and win the Iron Throne.. ?

3 We have discussed this a lot on the older threads. What he says is he will pledge fealty to Stannis if Davos bring back his Liege Lord. First theory is that Manderly means Bran, so that after getting Rickon, Davos will have to go after Bran (and no one know where he is) Second theory is that he is talking about Jon, that Manderly knows what is in Robbs will. True answer is not clear.

Wow, that would be ridiculous. Davos searching the Seven Kingdoms for Bran.. would probably be boring as shit, especially after reading Brienne's aFFC chapters...

Although I do like the idea of Davos on an Odysseus-style journey fighting crazy sea monsters off the island of Skagos.

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Wow, that would be ridiculous. Davos searching the Seven Kingdoms for Bran.. would probably be boring as shit, especially after reading Brienne's aFFC chapters...

Although I do like the idea of Davos on an Odysseus-style journey fighting crazy sea monsters off the island of Skagos.

Actually, Davos is searching for Rickon and Bran in places we haven't seen yet(or at least, we haven't seen Skagos).

And the lands beyond the Wall are never boring, especially for a character like Davos, who has many things happening to him all the time. Hell, even his time in White Harbor when he was imprisoned was fun for me to read. I mean, the guy is like a saint, always worrying about Stannis, his wife, his sons...so yeah, I find his chapters very captivating.

I can almost see him scaling the Wall to get on the other side, while thinking "If only I could let King Stannis know what I am doing so that he won't worry, he will have the northmen on his side" and so forth.

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For the pink letter, I have read various threads arguing the case for Mance, Mel and Ramsey himself being the writer, but I still like argument for it being Asha for the following reasons:

#1 - She too has received a letter previously from Ramsey, so she knows the style.

#2 - In the gift chapter Theon states that when he met Asha he told her everything. Even in that sample chapter doesn't Theon say something that sounds as though it's come from Ramsey.

#3 - She needs Theon to overturn the Kings Moot.

#4 - She knows that if she mentioned Theon and Jeyne Poole in the letter that it would not sway Jon from the wall, so calls them Reek and my bride.

#5 - There was a thread ages ago about how the mention of your false kings friends heads being on the wall does not fit the Bolton's style of killing, and she is perhaps really making a point about Bran and Rickon heads on the wall being false.

#6 - She has access to pink wax when the Bolton maester is caught by Stannis, and if the two ravens caught are really being warged by Bran and Bloodraven, it's not much of a stretch to get one of them to fly to Castle Black - she also seems to be influenced by their presence in the Gift chapter.

#7 - She states that Theon should be sacrificed in front of a heart tree - it seems weird that she wants him to be given to the old gods, but what if she is just buying time.

So Theon for content, Asha for style in the letter. Motive to cause chaos in order to provide a distraction so they can slip out. In my opinion, that is.

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Melisandre should have taught Stannis how to create effective glamors and illusions. Doing so would present her king with a broader array of options in the coming struggles. Melisandre revealed many of the secrets of fire viewing to Stannis, however it would also have been a good idea to explain about how to affect perceptions through glamors.

Also, anything Manderly and his allies say when Freys are present and within hearing range will naturally be carefully calculated. The secret meeting with Davos is a more reliable indicator of his true views.

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Actually, Davos is searching for Rickon and Bran in places we haven't seen yet(or at least, we haven't seen Skagos).

And the lands beyond the Wall are never boring, especially for a character like Davos, who has many things happening to him all the time. Hell, even his time in White Harbor when he was imprisoned was fun for me to read. I mean, the guy is like a saint, always worrying about Stannis, his wife, his sons...so yeah, I find his chapters very captivating.

I can almost see him scaling the Wall to get on the other side, while thinking "If only I could let King Stannis know what I am doing so that he won't worry, he will have the northmen on his side" and so forth.

That's true.. I have liked all of Davos' chapters thus far, although Davos is just such a cool character. Just seems like such a nice guy. Loyal, humble, trustworthy, honest.

For the pink letter, I have read various threads arguing the case for Mance, Mel and Ramsey himself being the writer, but I still like argument for it being Asha for the following reasons:

#1 - She too has received a letter previously from Ramsey, so she knows the style.

#2 - In the gift chapter Theon states that when he met Asha he told her everything. Even in that sample chapter doesn't Theon say something that sounds as though it's come from Ramsey.

#3 - She needs Theon to overturn the Kings Moot.

#4 - She knows that if she mentioned Theon and Jeyne Poole in the letter that it would not sway Jon from the wall, so calls them Reek and my bride.

#5 - There was a thread ages ago about how the mention of your false kings friends heads being on the wall does not fit the Bolton's style of killing, and she is perhaps really making a point about Bran and Rickon heads on the wall being false.

#6 - She has access to pink wax when the Bolton maester is caught by Stannis, and if the two ravens caught are really being warged by Bran and Bloodraven, it's not much of a stretch to get one of them to fly to Castle Black - she also seems to be influenced by their presence in the Gift chapter.

#7 - She states that Theon should be sacrificed in front of a heart tree - it seems weird that she wants him to be given to the old gods, but what if she is just buying time.

So Theon for content, Asha for style in the letter. Motive to cause chaos in order to provide a distraction so they can slip out. In my opinion, that is.

Interesting.. Never considered it coming from Asha. I still think the problem of getting a raven to the Wall is an issue, but it is possible. I still don't understand what she gains from sending it. Having Jon Snow come south with Wildlings doesn't really help her at all. The "false king's friend's heads" is a good point though.. there hasn't been any mention of Ramsay beheading enemies. That's a good point. Although, it's important to remember that since there are other non-Bolton Lords around, and he is at Winterfell not the Dreadfort, that he needs to be more "cautious" with his skinnings and torture.. although this is completely contrasted with the fact that he says he skinned the 6 spearwives. Why skin the spearwives and not the "false friends?"

The problems with Asha sending the letter are:

1) How did they get a raven to fly to the Wall? It's not like they know a raven is warged and when it isn't.

2) Jon Snow and Wildlings ride South to Winterfell to make Ramsay answer for his crimes... then what? Stannis would appreciate the help (and be all like 'dafuq you doin Snow?') but how would that help Theon and Asha? Stannis wouldn't let them go, and if her plan is to just "slip away" they could do that when the battle begins without Jon's help.

3) If she really wanted to lure Jon south, why not call her "Arya Stark?" That would guarantee him coming south much better than "my bride." The "my bride" exists, IMO because the author (I believe it's Ramsay) thinks Jeyne is at the wall and therefore has had his cover blown. Jon now knows that Ramsay's claim to Winterfell is fabricated. He threatens Jon to return the bride and keep it quiet, or he will "cut out his bastard heart and eat it" (uber creepy yet such a horrifyingly badass way to threaten an enemy).

Melisandre should have taught Stannis how to create effective glamors and illusions. Doing so would present her king with a broader array of options in the coming struggles. Melisandre revealed many of the secrets of fire viewing to Stannis, however it would also have been a good idea to explain about how to affect perceptions through glamors.

Also, anything Manderly and his allies say when Freys are present and within hearing range will naturally be carefully calculated. The secret meeting with Davos is a more reliable indicator of his true views.

I think Mel likes Stannis to know she is more powerful than he is. Teaching him to glamour would lessen her usefulness. She lets him glimpse the fires to let him know she isn't full of shit (I think).

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Personally, I think that Roose Bolton is dead and Ramsay is now running the show. I think that Mance is manipulating Ramsay for his own ends the same way that Ramsay manipulated Theon when he was "Lord of Winterfell".

So I think the pink letter was indeed written by Ramsay, with Mance whispering in his ear.

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Personally, I think that Roose Bolton is dead and Ramsay is now running the show. I think that Mance is manipulating Ramsay for his own ends the same way that Ramsay manipulated Theon when he was "Lord of Winterfell".

So I think the pink letter was indeed written by Ramsay, with Mance whispering in his ear.

That would be interesting.. how would Mance initiate contact with Ramsay without getting himself skinned alive? Also, wouldn't the other Northern lords (namely Whoresbane) be a little upset about Ramsay taking advice from the King Beyond the Wall?

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Personally, I think that Roose Bolton is dead and Ramsay is now running the show. I think that Mance is manipulating Ramsay for his own ends the same way that Ramsay manipulated Theon when he was "Lord of Winterfell".

So I think the pink letter was indeed written by Ramsay, with Mance whispering in his ear.

I don't know if exactly this, but I really think one of the Boltons is dead and the other is in a losing situation and is desperate, and the letter is a desperate act. On a second thought, contradicting one of my earlier posts, I don't think Roose would write such a letter, and I don't think Roose would allow Ramsay writing such a letter, so my take is Ramsay running the show and Roose somehow dead or captured.

About the Mance connection - well, not so sure.

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Personally, I think that Roose Bolton is dead and Ramsay is now running the show. I think that Mance is manipulating Ramsay for his own ends the same way that Ramsay manipulated Theon when he was "Lord of Winterfell".

So I think the pink letter was indeed written by Ramsay, with Mance whispering in his ear.

I actually really like this idea. It would be good to give Ramsay some of the ... uh... Ramsay treatment.

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