Think Cersei would do it all again?

[E-Ro]

Cersei has several reasons to want Robert dead: the incest, Renly's plot to have Rob put her aside, the abuse just to name three.

Thats true, effing renly always plotting. But still, if robert is killed and the kids are his the only one rebbelling is renly, but ned might of been able to stop him leaving kl resulting in renly not getting to the reach or calling his banners.

[danm_999]

LF wants him dead.

But why now? He's had the influence necessary over Lysa to have Jon Arryn killed for well over a decade. Why is he pulling the trigger now? Because Jon Arryn and Stannis are wise to twincest now.

Not if LF always wanted the Vale.

Yeah, even if he wanted the Vale. Remember, the agreement was that Stannis would foster Sweetrobin, and Littlefinger tells Sansa in AFFC that holding Sweetrobin is the key to the Vale.

[OnionAhaiReborn]

Cersei has several reasons to want Robert dead: the incest, Renly's plot to have Rob put her aside, the abuse just to name three.

These are all potential reasons, but not the reason she ended up doing it based on the text (and we can't know that she would have acted on these reasons). We can still know that there would have been large changes in the events of the books had she not murdered Robert when she did for the reason that she did.

[ab aeterno]

But why now? He's had the influence necessary over Lysa to have Jon Arryn killed for well over a decade. Why is he pulling the trigger now? Because Jon Arryn and Stannis are wise to twincest now.

Yeah, even if he wanted the Vale. Remember, the agreement was that Stannis would foster Sweetrobin, and Littlefinger tells Sansa in AFFC that holding Sweetrobin is the key to the Vale.

Exactly, so Stannis and Jon Arryn are still LF's enemies, aren't they? Because Jon Arryn and Stannis are both trying to arrange Robert's fostering on Dragonstone. He might not have done it quite at that moment, or he might, but he would have needed to stop Robert leaving.

[Winter's Knight]

Also joff would be sane, and probably more like robert so everyone would love him.

Actusaly, the firstborn'd be Jaime's-he was apparently conceive at Greenshi the home of Robert's cousins, six months after their marriage.

Oh there ya go, even if the second or third child was Bob's and black of hair, Joff'd still have been Jaime's and LF/Varys could still have planted doubts about his parentage.

[danm_999]

Exactly, so Stannis and Jon Arryn are still LF's enemies, aren't they? Because Jon Arryn and Stannis are both trying to arrange Robert's fostering on Dragonstone. He might not have done it quite at that moment, or he might, but he would have needed to stop Robert leaving.

Right, and the catalyst for the Stannis/Jon Arryn alliance is the discovery of twincest. So even assuming all Littlefinger wants is the Vale (and I'd say he's more ambitous that that TBH), without twincest, you're shaking up the events of AGoT quite a bit.

Not to mention that without twincest, Stannis remains in King's Landing and supports Joffrey in the War of the Five Kings. It would also mean that Ned wouldn't try to replace Joffrey with Stannis, and thus wouldn't commit treason.

[E-Ro]

Actusaly, the firstborn'd be Jaime's-he was apparently conceive at Greenshi the home of Robert's cousins, six months after their marriage.

Oh there ya go, even if the second or third child was Bob's and black of hair, Joff'd still have been Jaime's and LF/Varys could still have planted doubts about his parentage.

I geuss. But then the north and stannis would be fighting for the trueborn kids, not joff. And he could be removed by someone quietly to prevent war. The only problem is that renly is going to rebel no matter what, if he can stopped no war. If not he will probably lose but it will be bloody. Also perhaps tywin would fight against joff?

[ab aeterno]

Right, and the catalyst for the Stannis/Jon Arryn alliance is the discovery of twincest. So even assuming all Littlefinger wants is the Vale (and I'd say he's more ambitous that that TBH), without twincest, you're shaking up the events of AGoT quite a bit.

Not to mention that without twincest, Stannis remains in King's Landing and supports Joffrey in the War of the Five Kings. It would also mean that Ned wouldn't try to replace Joffrey with Stannis, and thus wouldn't commit treason.

I agree. I was only supporting the Jon Arryn being murdered part. :)

[Bayard]

She would do almost everything the same... she would probably find a way to kill Tyrion (but we know that wouldn't stop Joffrey's murder), and she wouldn't give power to the High Septon... that's it.

[Winter's Knight]

I geuss. But then the north and stannis would be fighting for the trueborn kids, not joff. And he could be removed by someone quietly to prevent war. The only problem is that renly is going to rebel no matter what, if he can stopped no war. If not he will probably lose but it will be bloody. Also perhaps tywin would fight against joff?

Stannis fighting for the trueborn is not different from Stannis fighting for himself though-Ned still dies and there is another Wot5K.

What I am saying is, the twincest was merely the spark that ignited what was already a very uneasy situation: Balon's resentment, Renly/the Tyrell's scheming.the Lannisters power-grabbing, LF's chaos making and Varys' behind-the-scenes long game.

Even if a few minor points (Ned surviving perhaps and Sansa wedding Joff) change, the overall war would still take place.

[E-Ro]

Stannis fighting for the trueborn is not different from Stannis fighting for himself though-Ned still dies and there is another Wot5K.

What I am saying is, the twincest was merely the spark that ignited what was already a very uneasy situation: Balon's resentment, Renly/the Tyrell's scheming.the Lannisters power-grabbing, LF's chaos making and Varys' behind-the-scenes long game.

Even if a few minor points (Ned surviving perhaps and Sansa wedding Joff) change, the overall war would still take place.

I agree with the bolded. My point is that if the north and riverlords are fighting with tywin and stannis they can easily handle renly and his stormlords and reachmen. They have the best leaders in the realm and way more men, I also doubt that if all of them are allied that balon is going to attack the north. Leaving balon to invade the reach most likely. Renly would be doomed. Also I would love to see an alternate reality were robb and tywin fight side by side.

[ab aeterno]

Stannis fighting for the trueborn is not different from Stannis fighting for himself though-Ned still dies and there is another Wot5K.

I'm not sure whatcauses Ned to die though?

What I am saying is, the twincest was merely the spark that ignited what was already a very uneasy situation: Balon's resentment, Renly/the Tyrell's scheming.the Lannisters power-grabbing, LF's chaos making and Varys' behind-the-scenes long game.

Even if a few minor points (Ned surviving perhaps and Sansa wedding Joff) change, the overall war would still take place.

Perhaps, but wouldn't it be a more much bi-polar affair? Ned and Stannis support the throne in all likelihood, don't they?

[E-Ro]

Perhaps, but wouldn't it be a more much bi-polar affair? Ned and Stannis support the throne in all likelihood, don't they?

And the lannisters would be a non issue so long as tywin agrees to force cercei back to cr, were she can find some happiness(hopefully)

[Winter's Knight]

I agree with the bolded. My point is that if the north and riverlords are fighting with tywin and stannis they can easily handle renly and his stormlords and reachmen. They have the best leaders in the realm and way more men, I also doubt that if all of them are allied that balon is going to attack the north. Leaving balon to invade the reach most likely. Renly would be doomed. Also I would love to see an alternate reality were robb and tywin fight side by side., against Tywin

But would the North fight with Tywin? He still has razed the Riverlands remember? And Joff is still illegitimate, Stannis is fighting for the trueborn child.

I'm not sure whatcauses Ned to die though?

Perhaps, but wouldn't it be a more much bi-polar affair? Ned and Stannis support the throne in all likelihood, don't they?

Joff is still Jaime's remember?

[E-Ro]

But would the North fight with Tywin? He still has razed the Riverlands remember? And Joff is still illegitimate, Stannis is fighting for the trueborn child.

But would they make peace to fight renly? I think they would.

[Winter's Knight]

But would they make peace to fight renly? I think they would.

But why? As far as the North-and Stannis-are concerned, Renly is as much a usurper as Joff.

[E-Ro]

But why? As far as the North-and Stannis-are concerned, Renly is as much a usurper as Joff.

But I dont think tywin would fight for a basterd joff if he knew stannis and the north and riverlands are fighting for his grandkids. He is not likely to keep fighting for a fake baratheon, even if he is cercei and jaimes.

[velki]

Stannis fighting for the trueborn is not different from Stannis fighting for himself though-Ned still dies and there is another Wot5K.

What I am saying is, the twincest was merely the spark that ignited what was already a very uneasy situation: Balon's resentment, Renly/the Tyrell's scheming.the Lannisters power-grabbing, LF's chaos making and Varys' behind-the-scenes long game.

Even if a few minor points (Ned surviving perhaps and Sansa wedding Joff) change, the overall war would still take place.

Personally I think the spark makes all the difference. If the midlands not only have no cause to worry about facing the North but in fact have the armies of the North at their side (after all, the Starks will have joined their house with the Baratheons of king's landing), don't you think that might even things up a bit? Sure, the Westerland's host of 35,000 may not be much compared to the 80,000 men of the Reach and the Stormlands -- but when you add in the men of the North and Dragonstone, you end up with something more like 60,000 facing 80,000. Starts sounding a little more even, especially considering the quality of the commanders sided against Renly. Sure, he's got a few great ones, but, well..

Edit - also, if Ned is the one leading the armies of the North, I find it extremely improbable that he /wouldn't/ support the king even if he didn't want to. It would be his honor-bound duty to, after all.

[E-Ro]

Sure, he's got a few great ones, but, well..

Like who? Randyle? Please, randyle won one battle against a battle weary robert an indecisive skirmish. As for renly his skill leaves much to be desired.

[butterbumps!]

Honestly, if there were no Twincest, none of the events would have played out in nearly the same way at all.

LF's motivation for having Lysa poison Jon Arryn wasn't to get the Vale. Lysa was put up to it, but readily agreed to the poison because she was already extremely upset about the fostering. It's really unlikely that she would have come up with the idea to poison him on her own.

What's crucial about the issue of fostering is that this was part of Stannis and Jon's "cleaning house," so to speak, just before outing the incest. Sending SR to Dragonstone was part of their plan to get their pieces into place as preparation for when twincest shit hit the fan. To twincest, no fostering.

I have no doubt that LF would have stirred things anyway, but without incest nothing would have been the same.