The Great Northern Conspiracy, part 3

[WhiteOwl18]

I've been working on a massive writeup of the Grand Northern Conspiracy on Tumblr. Thought folks here might be interested, too. The essay currently stands at seven parts, with Manderly and his various intrigues in Winterfell upcoming. Suggestions are very welcome!

Great work! I'm not sure I agree with everything you wrote, but I agree with most and it's a theory that I really, really like! Very well done! :thumbsup:

[Mrs_Darcy]

Im having trouble with the BwB getting around the Boltons at Moat Cailin. They have no boats and no knowledge of the neck.

Yeah, but there are two ways through the neck:

-the direct road, where you need Moat Cailin

-or through the swamps (probably with boats) with the help of the crannogmen. As long as they could somehow communicate to the crannogmen, that they are friends with the Starks, the crannogmen would help them. Since the BwB is not that large of a group, this should even be possible without whoever holds Moat Cailin knowing it.

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

Yeah, but there are two ways through the neck:

-the direct road, where you need Moat Cailin

-or through the swamps (probably with boats) with the help of the crannogmen. As long as they could somehow communicate to the crannogmen, that they are friends with the Starks, the crannogmen would help them. Since the BwB is not that large of a group, this should even be possible without whoever holds Moat Cailin knowing it.

Remember Robb's final instructions to Galbart Glover and Maege Mormont? Sail upriver flying the banner of House Stark and the crannogmen will help you. Catelyn heard that. Now I'm not saying the BwB is running around flying Stark banners, but once they disappeared into the Neck a well placed display of the direwolf of Stark could get them the help they need.

[WhiteOwl18]

There are some great discussions about medieval succession on these boards. And what those discussions have pointed out, time and time again, is that Jon, as a legitimized bastard, would not automatically be last in line.

Exactly. Check http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/The_Hornwood_Inheritance_and_the_Whents to see what the man himself has to say about that.

[Israel]

I think Jon could be crowned, I just don't think many people in the North would be happy about it. According to what GRRM has shown us of his world and through knowledge of medieval history and history of other societies we know that bastards are often hated. If the question at hand is simply lordship of Winterfell and the north then Rickon would suffice. The real complication would only occur if the Northmen decide that they want a King in the North who needs to lead them immediately. I don't think it is very likely at this point, the battle is over and the North has lost. Crowning Jon when heirs can be born to Rickon and even Sansa is a cause for future wars as well. There needs to be an extremely compelling reason to crown Jon, I don't think a will is enough.

It will be his blood , his accomplishments , "insert epic event here" will happen and be witnessed by everyone , myhaps an AA confirmation, it will seem like providence so they will crown him , Stannis may also relenquish claim to the north in exchange for help to take the IT. It will and is already extreamly compelling. Stannis is pretty much in awe of Jon if u take notice , his age , what he has done, he values is council. I think all roads lead to the north crowninng Jon , Jon and Stannis bro down , and the north and Syannis sacking KL. I believe Stannis will be the next king of westeros. Rejoice

[CrowsBeforeHoes]

CrowsBeforeHoes, Wylis Manderly is captured at Ruby Ford, where Roose's delay in crossing the river allows Gregor Clegane to fall upon the northern rearguard. Between his son and Robett Glover, who's taken prisoner at Duskendale, I'm pretty sure Manderly's realized Roose intentionally bleeds the northmen at those two battles. Which probably won't go over too well with the Hornwoods, Cerwyns, and Tallharts, who all lost men at Duskendale and Ruby Ford, not to mention in the sack of Winterfell.

Thank you for the clarification. And i wanted to applaud you on your masterful essays. I just graduated as a history major and they read like papers I would write (evidence making points that form a thesis). I've read each of them twice and they are very impressive. I'm looking forward to the 7th part so don't pull a GRRM and take too long lol

[Ghost's Shadow]

Yeade, been reading and loving your summary of all we discussed in here so far, thanks for the great work, very much appreciated!

[Yeade]

This may have come up elsewhere, but in my Davos re-read this weekend I noticed this when Lord Wyman has his secret audience with Davos:

"I have just come in from the high table," Lord Wyman went on. "I have eaten too much, as ever, and all White Harbor knows my bowels are bad. My friends of Frey will not question a lengthy visit to the privy, we hope."

Clearly, Lord Wyman is accustomed to using his "bad bowels" as cover for his plotting. ;)

LOL! No, I don't believe anyone's ever caught this delightful little detail, but it's definitely going to be an addition to the footnotes along with nenya~'s correction about the Mormont daughters. I'll credit you, of course. What a great find! ^_^

Thanks to everyone who's read the essay! The French Lion, Red.Queen, Ghost's Shadow, you flatter me with your kind comments. :blush:

CrowsBeforeHoes, I am trying my best not to emulate GRRM in how long I keep folks waiting for the next part. Then again, I really only need to finish writing sometime before TWOW is published and a whole new round of crazy theorizing begins, right? :laugh:

More seriously, I've run into a spot of trouble locating a reference that I hope the members here can help me with. Roose Bolton is known as the Leech Lord for the leechings he regularly undergoes to improve his health. Where, exactly, in the books is this mentioned? I've been skimming the Bran, Catelyn, Arya, and Jaime chapters that Roose appears in but can't seem to find a quotable explanation of his nickname. I thought those with more easily searchable e-books might take a look for me.

[Stoned Dragon]

I want to admit, for the first time, that I understand now what the Crannogmen were doing:

First, the crannogmen apparently begin a campaign to rid Moat Cailin of the ironborn, accomplishing Robb’s last objective in the war, if at a slower pace without the support of the troops lost at the Red Wedding. Theon arrives there to find the garrison dead, dying, or holed up in fear of the bog devils and their poisons (Theon II, Reek II, ADWD).

Thanks http://zincpiccalilli.tumblr.com/post/52918461011 -- this makes the Northern Conspiracy that much more believable to me.

[Nuncle Kraken]

LOL! No, I don't believe anyone's ever caught this delightful little detail, but it's definitely going to be an addition to the footnotes along with nenya~'s correction about the Mormont daughters. I'll credit you, of course. What a great find! ^_^

Thanks to everyone who's read the essay! The French Lion, Red.Queen, Ghost's Shadow, you flatter me with your kind comments. :blush:

CrowsBeforeHoes, I am trying my best not to emulate GRRM in how long I keep folks waiting for the next part. Then again, I really only need to finish writing sometime before TWOW is published and a whole new round of crazy theorizing begins, right? :laugh:

More seriously, I've run into a spot of trouble locating a reference that I hope the members here can help me with. Roose Bolton is known as the Leech Lord for the leechings he regularly undergoes to improve his health. Where, exactly, in the books is this mentioned? I've been skimming the Bran, Catelyn, Arya, and Jaime chapters that Roose appears in but can't seem to find a quotable explanation of his nickname. I thought those with more easily searchable e-books might take a look for me.

Arya talks about him being leeched in CoK. I also remember Harwin asking Arya if she's some cup bearer to the leech lord (because of the flayed man on her doublet) when she reveals herself to him and the BwB.. I know this isn't exact, but I don't have my books handy atm.

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

LOL! No, I don't believe anyone's ever caught this delightful little detail, but it's definitely going to be an addition to the footnotes along with nenya~'s correction about the Mormont daughters. I'll credit you, of course. What a great find! ^_^

Thanks to everyone who's read the essay! The French Lion, Red.Queen, Ghost's Shadow, you flatter me with your kind comments. :blush:

CrowsBeforeHoes, I am trying my best not to emulate GRRM in how long I keep folks waiting for the next part. Then again, I really only need to finish writing sometime before TWOW is published and a whole new round of crazy theorizing begins, right? :laugh:

More seriously, I've run into a spot of trouble locating a reference that I hope the members here can help me with. Roose Bolton is known as the Leech Lord for the leechings he regularly undergoes to improve his health. Where, exactly, in the books is this mentioned? I've been skimming the Bran, Catelyn, Arya, and Jaime chapters that Roose appears in but can't seem to find a quotable explanation of his nickname. I thought those with more easily searchable e-books might take a look for me.

First, thanks for the props :)

As for leeching/Lord Leech, in ACoK it comes up in ch 47 (Arya)

"Are you afraid of leeches child? [...] Frequent leechings are the secret to a long life. A man must purge himself of bad blood."

...and in ch 64, Arya terrifies Elmar Frey with her talk of leeches, before going to attend Lord Roose who is being leeched. This is the scene where he is surrounded by Freys (eta- I found something very symbolic in Roose being covered with those big pale leeches, slowly filling up with blood, while surrounded by Freys who may be viewed, in a sense, as human leeches...) and ultimately sends the orders for Helman Tallhart and Robett Glover to march on Duskendale. Later in the same chapter, when she determines to flee HH, she wakes Gendry and asks him to steal some swords. At first he is confused and asks her

"Is this for Lord Leech?"

That's the first reference I found of the nickname. It comes up again in ASoS ch 11 (Brienne) and ch 50 (Arya) Leeches also come up in the Theon chapters in ADwD, when Roose comments that Ramsay needs to be leeched, and of course Lady Dustin's well known comment about how leeches "sucked all the passion" out of Roose years ago.

[Mrs_Darcy]

LOL! No, I don't believe anyone's ever caught this delightful little detail, but it's definitely going to be an addition to the footnotes along with nenya~'s correction about the Mormont daughters. I'll credit you, of course. What a great find! ^_^

Thanks to everyone who's read the essay! The French Lion, Red.Queen, Ghost's Shadow, you flatter me with your kind comments. :blush:

CrowsBeforeHoes, I am trying my best not to emulate GRRM in how long I keep folks waiting for the next part. Then again, I really only need to finish writing sometime before TWOW is published and a whole new round of crazy theorizing begins, right? :laugh:

More seriously, I've run into a spot of trouble locating a reference that I hope the members here can help me with. Roose Bolton is known as the Leech Lord for the leechings he regularly undergoes to improve his health. Where, exactly, in the books is this mentioned? I've been skimming the Bran, Catelyn, Arya, and Jaime chapters that Roose appears in but can't seem to find a quotable explanation of his nickname. I thought those with more easily searchable e-books might take a look for me.

I do not know, whether there actually is one quote, where he is called "the leech lord". I do not have the e-books, but I looked at the wiki of him at westeros.org and there they did not have a quote for this.

[Mrs_Darcy]

I have found another text passage, that could be interpreted as a hint for the GNC.

At the beginning of Jaime VII in AFFC, just after the Blackfish has escaped and after Jaime has left Edmure alone with Tom o' Sevens, there is the following sentence:

Jaime was sorely tempted to crack him across the mouth with his golden hand. A few missing teeth would put an end to his smiles. For a man, who was going to spend the rest of his life as a prisoner, Edmure was entirely too pleased with himself.

That could either be just because the Blackfish has escaped or because Edmure has gotten information from Tom o' Sevens, who has been left alone with him in the last chapter. He could have told Edmure something about Lady Catelyn's plans, which could have led to his good mood.

[Clariana]

I have found another text passage, that could be interpreted as a hint for the GNC.

At the beginning of Jaime VII in AFFC, just after the Blackfish has escaped and after Jaime has left Edmure alone with Tom o' Sevens, there is the following sentence:

That could either be just because the Blackfish has escaped or because Edmure has gotten information from Tom o' Sevens, who has been left alone with him in the last chapter. He could have told Edmure something about Lady Catelyn's plans, which could have led to his good mood.

Good catch!

Or that the Brotherhood have it in for Jaime...

[Red Raven]

Great work! I'm not sure I agree with everything you wrote, but I agree with most and it's a theory that I really, really like! Very well done!

I agree. Yeade nice work! My only quibble is that I don't think UnCat has Robb's will. She was was hateful toward Jon in life and, considering her behavior toward Brienne, I think she's even less reasonable now. There's no way UnCat would honor such a will.

Maege and Galbart may have left with decoy battle plans but one or both had a copy of the real will.

Since the crannogmen leapt into action, it appears to me the will with Maege and/or Galbart got to Howland Reed safe and sound.

[LitaJ]

I have to agree with Red Raven, Lady Stoneheart would not seek to honour Robb's will which I believe is Safe with Lord Howland Reed of Greywater Watch, Official Guardian of Stark Family Secrets, Secret Guardian of Snow's Parentage, Cragnorman and All around Badass.

[Red Raven]

Lita, I love your titles for Howland. I may steal it for a future signature.

[Wisenan69]

I have to agree with Red Raven, Lady Stoneheart would not seek to honour Robb's will which I believe is Safe with Lord Howland Reed of Greywater Watch, Official Guardian of Stark Family Secrets, Secret Guardian of Snow's Parentage, Cragnorman and All around Badass.

Long live Howland Reed, he truly deserves all those titles. Hopefully will read a lot about him in the next books.

[LitaJ]

Lita, I love your titles for Howland. I may steal it for a future signature.

Feel free, we need to promote the awesomeness that is Howland Reed to those who wish to forget him and his deeds.

Long live Howland Reed, he truly deserves all those titles. Hopefully will read a lot about him in the next books.

:bowdown: Long live the Great and Mysterious Master of the Neck!

I think he is the character I am most interested in meeting in all of the remaining books!

[Yeade]

Just wanted to say that Part 7 is up. This is the final substantial addition to the essay, though another post of annotations is forthcoming. Thanks to everyone who's been reading and to Nuncle Kraken, Lady Gwynhyfvar, and Mrs_Darcy on the issue of Roose Bolton's love of leeches.

Red Raven, I agree that any theory based on UnCat's characterization beyond her murderous hatred for the perpetrators of the Red Wedding is, well, questionable. I mainly favor the idea as a way to connect events in the North with the activities of the Brotherhood Without Banners in and around Riverrun. Moreover, I like the dramatic symmetry of Lady Stoneheart supporting Jon's legitimization as King in the North when Catelyn was so opposed to the act in life. My sense is that there's an unresolved character arc between Jon and Robb regarding Jon's place in their family and at Winterfell, and Catelyn is the arbiter of this conflict since the tension that divides the otherwise close half-brothers/cousins has its source in her attitude towards Jon.

In general, I feel Jon's identity as a Stark must be settled before the probable revelation of R+L=J. And I see Robb's decree naming Jon his heir as the plot device by which GRRM intends to do this. Admittedly, I also just find it hilarious to imagine Jon finally being comfortable with his bastardy and assured of his acceptance as a true Stark only to learn that, no, he's actually a Targaryen and was never a bastard at all but for years of deception by the honorable man he thought his father. What a headache! Especially as Jon's likely slated to meet his closest living relative on his birth father's side of the family, dear Aunt Dany, the teenaged barbarian queen whose dragon perhaps ate the last man claiming to be her nephew, shortly thereafter. I do so love making Jon's life hard and complicated. :laugh: