The Great Northern Conspiracy, part 3

[Jslay427]

Isn't that how it works, though? Rather than one solid, one-shot revelation, we're given lots of smaller clues to pick out and piece together.

Yes, but, I think that the extent of this theory is just too much detail for a subplot. Even for GRRM.

[lentrix]

loving this whole thread - hope it turns out to be correct - GRRM, hurry up with the next book!

[Scipio Africanus]

How can the Northerners NOT know about Bolton's involvement in the Red Wedding? He was there, he didn't suffer losses, has been proclaimed a Warden in the North and is now working with the Freys, lol. Draw your own conclusions <rotfl>. I can understand why the Northerners pretend to accept Bolton's lies about the RW (Manderly alluded to this during his conversation with Davos), but if they actually believe that only Freys are responsible, then willing suspension of disbelief would go out of the window.

For the same reason why Wyman publically played along with the Freys even though he planned to you know, stuff them in a few pies.

Roose knows guys like the Umbers would've attacked him immediately if it weren't for that the Freys still held the GREATJON. A lot of Nothern houses still have members either captive or missing. They're waiting for a chance to get them returned, then they can go over to action.

[FittleLinger]

For the same reason why Wyman publically played along with the Freys even though he planned to you know, stuff them in a few pies.

Roose knows guys like the Umbers would've attacked him immediately if it weren't for that the Freys still held the GREATJON. A lot of Nothern houses still have members either captive or missing. They're waiting for a chance to get them returned, then they can go over to action.

Yeah, everyone knows. I mean the northeners know the truth, and the Boltons and Freys know that the Northeners know the truth. It's a mummers farce, just like Wyman said.

I mean, the official story is that Robb turned into a werewolf and attacked them. Noone is dumb enough to believe that, and the Freys and Boltons are not dumb enough to believe that anyone is dumb enough to believe that.

[Scipio Africanus]

I mean, the official story is that Robb turned into a werewolf and attacked them. Noone is dumb enough to believe that, and the Freys and Boltons are not dumb enough to believe that anyone is dumb enough to believe that.

Yeah it really is a lame story you'd think them Freys could think of something better than that. But then again those Freys really aren't that bright.

As for Tywin and Roose, they simply don't care as they figure right = might and they're the ones in charge. Tywin misunderstands the North's loyalty for the Starks and their "nationalism" - and figures the other Houses, now that they've lost so much, will meekly follow whoever he sends to lead them, because that's what the houses in his lands would do.

According to some Roose is playing a whole different game (like, becoming an Other) but I haven't seen a lot of evidence for that. I just think he's following Tywin's line of thought (despite being a Northman himself) and that as long as there's a thin veneer of legitimacy the other houses won't care.

[FittleLinger]

Yeah it really is a lame story you'd think them Freys could think of something better than that. But then again those Freys really aren't that bright.

As for Tywin and Roose, they simply don't care as they figure right = might and they're the ones in charge. Tywin misunderstands the North's loyalty for the Starks and their "nationalism" - and figures the other Houses, now that they've lost so much, will meekly follow whoever he sends to lead them, because that's what the houses in his lands would do.

According to some Roose is playing a whole different game (like, becoming an Other) but I haven't seen a lot of evidence for that. I just think he's following Tywin's line of thought (despite being a Northman himself) and that as long as there's a thin veneer of legitimacy the other houses won't care.

I agree with all of this. Roose's mystic goal (I too am not inclined to believe in it, it's an interesting possibility at most) aside, I think that he's following Tywin's line as in ruling through fear. That's probably because he's been ruling his own lands in that manner, while pretty much the rest of the north has other relationships among themselves and their liege - mutual benefit, respect, not messing with the others too much.

And maybe the north would have bended if they were defeated in a war fair and square. But the crime that the red wedding was and the whole manner of maintaining the farce is not something that can last among the North.

[Babeldygob]

If the Hooded Man is Hallis Mollen he could give the information that would lead to the conclusion that Roose Bolton sent the men he sent to Duskendale to their deaths on purpose.

[FittleLinger]

If the Hooded Man is Hallis Mollen he could give the information that would lead to the conclusion that Roose Bolton sent the men he sent to Duskendale to their deaths on purpose.

And if it's Harwin he would know:

1. That "Arya" is definitely not Arya

2. Everything from the RW first hand from Lady Stoneheart and some of the captured Freys (before they got killed).

[A Crow Come Over]

And if it's Harwin he would know:

1. That "Arya" is definitely not Arya

2. Everything from the RW first hand from Lady Stoneheart and some of the captured Freys (before they got killed).

The only problem is, do they know what Hother & Mors are planning in WF?

I assumed Hother took all the greybeards in an attempt to re-take WF in a suicide mission. But if its Hal or Harwin they may not know this and think the Umbers have turned against the Starks.

[Valandui]

The only problem is, do they know what Hother & Mors are planning in WF?

I assumed Hother took all the greybeards in an attempt to re-take WF in a suicide mission. But if its Hal or Harwin they may not know this and think the Umbers have turned against the Starks.

Maybe, but isn't it pretty common knowlege that the Umbers with Bolton are only there because the Greatjon is still in custody?

[WidowMaker55]

True, though I think Manderly probably had deep suspicions that he son just confirmed. Was his son actually around Robb when he died? If so that would be awesome cause the only person I can think of who is still alive who likely saw Roose stab Robb is the GreatJon.

. Wylis Manderly was imprisoned at Duskendale. Roose sent Robett Glover and others to Duskendale knowing they would lose. They all got ransomed back.

[FittleLinger]

Maybe, but isn't it pretty common knowlege that the Umbers with Bolton are only there because the Greatjon is still in custody?

Basically this. I guess it's pretty common knowledge that the Boltons are the only ones who turned cloak for sure, and that most of the others are just playing along because they have no choice. Even if he isn't sure, I doubt he will jump on the Umbers with a "Traitor" shout, at least he will try to get the picture and gather some information.

Oh, and if he was assisted by the cranogmen when passing through the neck, he might also know of Robb's will...

[Yeade]

I've been working on a massive writeup of the Grand Northern Conspiracy on Tumblr. Thought folks here might be interested, too. The essay currently stands at seven parts, with Manderly and his various intrigues in Winterfell upcoming. Suggestions are very welcome!

[Minstral]

. Wylis Manderly was imprisoned at Duskendale. Roose sent Robett Glover and others to Duskendale knowing they would lose. They all got ransomed back.

Wylis Manderly was taken at the battle of the Ruby Ford and taken by Clegane to Harrenhal. It was this battle that Botlon kept a slow pace so that Clegane could fall on his rear, which was held by Stark loyalists while his men were safely in front.

[redviper9]

Yeah I'm thinking at this point that other than the Freys who were present and Roose himself, UnCat is the only other person who could implicate Roose in Robb's murder. I wonder if the some of the Freys who are with Roose will rat him out, thinking it might save their own asses. Always possible.

I had completely lost track of this thread for a while, and I didn't see anyone else brings this up later, so: Patrek Mallister could also implicate the Boltons in the Red Wedding, though he might not be able to finger Roose for murdering Robb. He is the only surviving member of Robb's personal guard, but, like the Greatjon, he wasn't in the main hall during the slaughter because he participated in the bedding ceremony (Patrek gave a toast to Edmure's "one-eyed fish"). Unlike the Greatjon though, Patrek is no longer being held captive at the Twins. Black Walder took him to Seagard and threatened to hang him if Lord Jason didn't surrender; when Lord Jason gave in, both father and son were imprisoned in their own castle. Granted, Patrek's access to ravens is probably limited, and all the Northern lords already know that Roose played a big part in engineering the RW, but the Freys and Boltons haven't eliminated everyone who could point the finger at them.

[Firstblade]

I wonder if all of this is leading to a cyclical pattern. If the North is able to recover through Rickon or Jon(Jon makes more sense to me), we could see a situation similar to Robert's Rebellion.

-Alliance between Baratheon(Stannis), Stark(Jon/Rickon), Arryn(If Sansa makes a move), and Tully

-Alliance between Dorne, Highgarden, Targ(Aegon)

-Lannisters MIA and kinda disliked by everyone (if Cersei continues her path and Tommen dies somehow like the prophesy says. I see her out of KL sometime soon)

[nenya~]

I've been working on a massive writeup of the Grand Northern Conspiracy on Tumblr. Thought folks here might be interested, too. The essay currently stands at seven parts, with Manderly and his various intrigues in Winterfell upcoming. Suggestions are very welcome!

Amazing essay! Can I add this one to the OP? I know I said I was going to put those other posts, but meh didn't want to go through a bunch of posts lol.

One thing, most people have assumed that only Dacey went south with Maege (including myself), but I'm not sure that's the case.

Catelyn wondered if Lady Maege had reached the Neck as yet. She had taken her other daughters with her, but as one of Robb’s battle companions Dacey had chosen to remain by his side. (aSoS, p. 578)

I don't think this necessarily disproves anything though. We could still assume that Alysane has been in touch with Maege because she seems to believe they are alive or at least doesn't seem worried about them being missing. I've wondered if it was Maege that told Alysane to take back Deepwood Motte on behalf of Galbart Glover, but I don't think there's any proof of that really. Deepwood Motte is pretty close to the coast and not very far from Bear Island.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

1st time I've read through the entirety of a GNC thread. I cough the very start of the first one but soon fell too far behind with it to keep up and the subsequent threads have all been too huge by the time I spotted them for me to sit down and commit to reading the whole thing.

Gotta say I am sold on the idea, totally loving it.

[Yeade]

Ugh, nenya~... Why you gotta poke holes in my reasoning? (Just kidding! ^_^)

Go ahead and link my essay to the OP. It's rather more comprehensive than any of my posts here and, I hope, will serve as a good introduction to get new readers caught up on this dauntingly intricate theory, lol. Part 5 has been posted, BTW.

I didn't originally plan to include footnotes, but I've reconsidered with your latest find. I'll note whatever corrections or additions you and others discover in a separate entry, one that I can continue to edit, after the seventh part.

Though you're right, of course, in that Alysane can still be assumed to be in contact with Maege because she seems certain her mother and sisters are alive. Actually, since Maege's "other daughters" aren't named, how do we know that Alysane doesn't go south, too? Besides the fact that Alysane's absence in addition to Lyra and Jorelle's leaves Lyanna the only Mormont on Bear Island, a ten-year-old castellan, lol.

ETA: Then again, not entirely ridiculous because, well, there's Bran. Ser Rodrik is castellan of Winterfell after Robb marches south, and the Mormonts presumably have a maester and could appoint a steward, too, same as the Glovers.

[Techelles]

I've been working on a massive writeup of the Grand Northern Conspiracy on Tumblr. Thought folks here might be interested, too. The essay currently stands at seven parts, with Manderly and his various intrigues in Winterfell upcoming. Suggestions are very welcome!

Yeade, this is excellent. I've just started reading, but I very much look forward to the rest. I'm tempted to print it all out, bind it, and put it on my bookshelf.