The last place you would expect to find the Blackfish? New Blackfish theory

[Lord_of_the_Nightfort]

I was rereading a few Jaime chapters when an odd theory formed in my mind. Edmure said the Blackfish escaped by swimming under a portcullis. No one noticed him escaping, "blackfish in a black river", even Jaime wasn't surprised nobody spotted him. Search parties were dispatched after the blackfish had about a day and a half head start, but so far have found nothing. Is it possible that the blackfish is a super sneaky ninja knight that could leave no trace in a day and a half of travel (possibly with extra baggage, if you believe jeyne is with him), sure, i suppose he's that good. But when i tried to struggle with the question of where he's going, where he is, and what's his plan, I came upon another question. Where is the last place i would expect to find Brynden Tully?

Suppose the Tully's know Riverrun better than anyone else (which should be a given), and suppose they have a plan for continuing the fight. The Frey in Riverrun has a garrison of 200 men, plenty to defend from an attack long enough for help to arrive and break any siege. So it would be pretty foolish to siege Riverrun, and just as foolish and costly to assault it.

Is it possible that we're seeing a similar ploy to that of Bran & Rickon hiding in the crypts. We're assuming he escaped Riverrun because Edmure tells us he did. Is it ridiculous to think he lied to Jaime? I don't think so. In fact, I'd be surprised if edmure told him the truth.

Is there a forgotten part of Riverrun that Brynden and a small portion of select men (5-10?) are hidden away, waiting for a moment to strike in any number of ways? Capturing a gate to allow other men in would make the most sense to me. They had time to set this up, Riverrun was well supplied so they could have easily stashed enough food to feed themselves for a while.

Has anyone else thought of this???

Also, IIRC, there isn't a wealth of updates from Riverrun in Dance, is it possible that the time already came for the strike?

What does everyone else think? If this is a possibility, what else has to happen to make this work?

[Northern Nomad]

It is possible and in the same way the starks built secret escapes, the tullys should know some hidden passage.

But i doubt it because as you said George already used this trick once, and i don't think he is going to repeat.

That and Jamie had Riverrun searched every knook and crany, Theon did not have the men to do that, Jamie did.

[Lady Seaworth]

This is a pretty cool idea, and I don't see it as being all that improbable - it does seem a little weird that there's absolutely no trace of the Blackfish.

As to other places he could have escaped to... Winterfell, maybe? Nobody would expect it because of WF's destruction and Ramsay holing up there. Or maybe he's spirited himself away to wherever Howland Reed is.

[Mladen]

Solid idea...It sounds even more pleasing if you add Jeyne Westerling pregnancy theory. People in Riverrun would certainly protect Blackfish, they all hate Freys, and they will give them a proper nightmare. Perhaps it will be another `Ghost of Harrenhall/Winterfell` storyarc. 200 men isn`t that much, killig one by one...

[Lord_of_the_Nightfort]

I've thought about GW, but if he stays with the river it takes him way out of his way. I always figured he would surface in the Eyrie, until now.

[therealbando]

The Blackfish repeating the Trojan Horse move (in a way), it would be awesome but I doubt it will happen.

The last place anyone would look I think is Casterly Rock, but I doubt that too. My money is on the Blackfish joining the BWB theory.

[Lord_of_the_Nightfort]

I forgot to mention that the Brotherhood has at least one man in Riverrun, Tom o' Sevens is there, it's also possible the Tully's are in cahoots with remnants of the brotherhood.

Edit: bf could be holed up somewhere and 7 strings could be the eyes on the outside?

[Ser Frank Haven]

Wasn't there some fuss over at Rosby because a unnamed ward took command ?

[Lady Seaworth]

I've thought about GW, but if he stays with the river it takes him way out of his way. I always figured he would surface in the Eyrie, until now.

Then again he needn't stay with the river, if he keeps quiet. And assuming he's a strong swimmer, it wouldn't be impossible to swim short distances upriver, make camp and repeat until he reaches Greywater Watch.

Just thought of something - doesn't Meera or Jojen mention that Greywater Watch moves? If it can move downriver, it might not be such a longshot.

[Lord_of_the_Nightfort]

Then again he needn't stay with the river, if he keeps quiet. And assuming he's a strong swimmer, it wouldn't be impossible to swim short distances upriver, make camp and repeat until he reaches Greywater Watch.

Just thought of something - doesn't Meera or Jojen mention that Greywater Watch moves? If it can move downriver, it might not be such a longshot.

There's still the Twins to deal with, any road he goes it's going to be difficult.

[Lord Damian]

the most important fact of the Blackfish is that he will not relenquish his duty. robb's last command to him was to protect his Queen. Jeyne. if she was not pregnant, she was a widow and nothing else. It is kind of "why was the kingsguard protecting Lyanna stark if rheagar is dead and she is not royal"?. Blackfish knows and certainly knew that if Jeyne is pregnant, she is as good as dead by the Lannisters. Jaime even says to himself that if Jeyne was to have "the young wolf's pup" that the child would be far more dangerous than its father ever was. Robb, as we know was pretty dangerous.

The Blackfish has to secure his queen and unborn monarch and fast, she is approx ? 2-4 months pregnant if she is at all. Again, if she is not pregnant, who cares? The Westerlings must be in on this or were covering up the fact that she escaped by having an imposter. The Lannisters do not know what she looks like, the Crag was small and insignifigant so Jeyen flew under the radar in the west while growing up. i say he has linked up with the BWB through Tom O Sevens or which is not far from Greywater watch, the Vale is too dangerous through the mountain passes.

[Runaway Penguin]

BwB cannot really move against Freys as long as there are prisoners in Twins and as long as Edmure is a prisoner.

Unless they get cooperation of one Jaime Lannister in retrieving both, or atleast moving them to safety. Edmure may be considered safe enough at the Rock as long as BwB stops atttacking Lannister forces, and RW prisoners are to be transfered to (again) Lannister hands, leaving BwB (with hold on Jaime or even his cooperation) safe to strike at Freys and Freys only.

Alternatively, if the RW prisoners were not transfered to King's Landing (and there was plenty of time for that to happen), it may be taken as personal affront by Jaime (after all Freys would be thus breaking King's Peace) and it may even lead him to offer a hand all by himself - cooperating on their rescue would not be in any way rebellion.

EDIT: jaime said she would be dangerous, but by now not necessarily for Lannisters. But definitely for Boltons and Freys. It is kinda as with Edmure Tully.

[mattah84]

The Blackfish has either taken Robb's queen to the Neck, or he is in the Vale and will help Nestor Royce take it back from Petyr Baelish. Protecting Robb's Queen is more likely I think.

[Lord_of_the_Nightfort]

Is it really very safe for a senior citizen to be dragging a pregnant woman through freezing cold rivers? We can't forget that it's snowing in the riverlands. In fact, it just started snowing after jaime took riverrun. the blackfish is a BA for sure, but even he would know that they wouldn't be able to make it very far on foot and in the snow. Stealing horses draws attention, and the blackfish would be severely hampered by jeyne (assuming she's with him). If there was a plan in place to secure riverrun after jaime's forces depart, wouldn't it be safer to have her stay put, concealed within the caslte.

[mattah84]

Is it really very safe for a senior citizen to be dragging a pregnant woman through freezing cold rivers? We can't forget that it's snowing in the riverlands. In fact, it just started snowing after jaime took riverrun. the blackfish is a BA for sure, but even he would know that they wouldn't be able to make it very far on foot and in the snow. Stealing horses draws attention, and the blackfish would be severely hampered by jeyne (assuming she's with him). If there was a plan in place to secure riverrun after jaime's forces depart, wouldn't it be safer to have her stay put, concealed within the caslte.

If you are under the assumption that there is a plan to retake the castle. Have we been given indication of that?

[Lord_of_the_Nightfort]

Considering the pov's we have available to us would quite literally be the last to know of a secret plan to retake riverrun, we can't assume that there isn't. However, we can say that it's possible, and plausible that there is a plan. We can't know for certain until the BF pops up somewhere. If that somewhere happens to be Riverrun, hooray me. :cheers:

[Stannis Eats No Peaches]

Nice theory, there isn't any way to argue against it as far as I can see. What about Jeyne though? Is she hiding too or was the girl Jaime met Jeyne?

[Lord_of_the_Nightfort]

In my mind Jeyne is with the blackfish wherever he is, if he's in Riverrun, she's with him.

[The Mountain That Flies]

Considering the pov's we have available to us would quite literally be the last to know of a secret plan to retake riverrun, we can't assume that there isn't. However, we can say that it's possible, and plausible that there is a plan. We can't know for certain until the BF pops up somewhere. If that somewhere happens to be Riverrun, hooray me. :cheers:

The problem with this theory is everyone's ability to coordinate a coup. The BwB may be in contact with the greater Rivverun area (or maybe that's what Jaime & Brienne will have to help with), or they must just be going around hanging people. Edmure is a prisoner and well away from Riverrun at this point. The real Jeyne may be hidden somewhee secrte in Riverrun under the command of a few loyal men, but the Blackfish is surely out being active somewhere. While he could be a very dangerous stealth knight, his personality seems more disposed to getting out and fighting from the outside. All in all, the necessary ingredients are there, but we've got Brienne and Jaime as eyes in that area, and have seen no serious sings of a planned coup.

[ipsuel]

It is possible and in the same way the starks built secret escapes, the tullys should know some hidden passage.

But i doubt it because as you said George already used this trick once, and i don't think he is going to repeat.

That and Jamie had Riverrun searched every knook and crany, Theon did not have the men to do that, Jamie did.

Actually, GRRM re-uses tricks all the time... that's kind of hi M.O. in this series. He introduces a trick/twist' in one story arc, then we see it happen in another... I wrote a long post about it ages ago on another board with a ton of examples.

Like the ole Baby switcheroo (Gilly's/Mance's then we hear about the fAegon/random kid arc, whether true or not). False identities, non-deaths, etc... there are a million examples thru the books of redundant 'tricks.'

I'm kinda really liking the OPs idea!