Canadian Politics II: The Polite War

[Shryke]

Well, from the reports on the CBC, whatever the official organization of the NDP is, Mulcair hasn't spoken to Notley in more than 8 months and they don't seem to be particularly close. And on top of that, I suspect this will be a situation where the provincial party won't necessarily see eye to eye with the federal party. The issue of a carbon tax might cause a major disagreement between them, for example. I suspect there will be more issues between them, because in the end Alberta still has more in common with the Conservatives than the NDP.

The fact that Ontarians will vote differently in federal and provincial elections has been a fairly consistent fact of life for 70 or 80 years.

The PCs were in power in Ontario from 1943 to 1985, while the Liberals were in power federally from 1940 to 1984, except for Diefenbaker's shocking success from 1957 to 63, and Joe Clark's sad little 8 months in 79/80. When Mulroney won in 1984, the next Ontario election saw Liberals in 1985 and NDP from 1990 to 1995. While the NDP were in power, the federal government went Liberal again in 1993, and then the next provincial election Ontario went PC in 1995, staying in power until 2003 when Ontario went Liberal. This time in 2004 the Liberals barely got a minority and needed the NDP to stay in power, and Harper seriously considered quitting (so sad he didn't). Next federal election, Liberals lost in 2006 to the Conservatives, and there matters stand.

The Conservatives were sure they would be getting back in power in Ontario the last two elections and the Liberals surprised them both times, especially last election when the pundits were all convinced a scandal ridden Liberal government couldn't possibly win again, or at best, would get a minority. But with a Conservative majority in Ottawa, Ontarians gave the Liberals a majority.

The elections don't coincide, of course, but people in Ontario seem pretty damn good at hedging their bets.

I don't think this is anything more then you seeing patterns in random facts. It may be broadly true that Ontario has voted for different parties at the federal and provincial level frequently but that's not some sort of deliberate strategy.

The PC party lost the last Ontario election (and the one before that) because they kinda suck.

The Cons make headway in Ontario because the Liberals are still on the outs popularity wise and the PCs are the "other party". The one you vote for when you want to toss the current bums out.* The NDP is just right-out for Ontario, especially after the Bob Rae years (though god knows why).

*The fact that the PCs no longer exist and the Cons are just basically the Reform party in disguise is, of course, the entire point of the Conservative party in the first place. Harper's entire political existence is based on his ability to deliver a conservative majority by securing votes in Ontario via obfuscating the type of far right party he is actually running. And he does this via the tactics we've all come to know and loathe, which is a stranglehold-tight grip on anything anyone in the party says while pushing a hard right agenda on various levels of the down-low.

[Fragile Bird]

Maybe it's just that I'm older than the rest of you, but I have been raised on the idea that Ontario will vote to make sure there are different parties in power federally and provincially. I don't think you can find another province that shows the same kind of pattern. As I said, I attribute it to people hedging their bets. :)

Whatever the label is on the party, the Conservatives (really the Reform party) are the right wing party and the Liberals are the centre, left of centre, party. Whether or not provincial Liberal parties are closely affiliated with the federal Liberal party doesn't really matter, they are the party that's centre-left wherever they are. You had the weird situation of the former Conservative cabinet minister Jean Charest being asked to cross the floor and become a Liberal in order to fight the separatists in Quebec, but he was a blue red Tory in any event so the move wasn't that big.

I agree that the Conservatives shot themselves in the foot in Ontario in the last election, but hell, he was just being a Conservative, particularly a Harris Conservative. No more Common Sense revolution for the people of Ontario.

In my heart of hearts I doubt the Conservatives will lose next election, because Ontario went Liberal majority, even though it makes me sick at heart. I hope I'm wrong. I don't want Harper again, and I don't want the Conservatives in power in Ontario next time around either.

[Shryke]

Maybe it's just that I'm older than the rest of you, but I have been raised on the idea that Ontario will vote to make sure there are different parties in power federally and provincially. I don't think you can find another province that shows the same kind of pattern. As I said, I attribute it to people hedging their bets. :)

Except nobody ever talks about that, so you are just being kinda silly.

Whatever the label is on the party, the Conservatives (really the Reform party) are the right wing party and the Liberals are the centre, left of centre, party. Whether or not provincial Liberal parties are closely affiliated with the federal Liberal party doesn't really matter, they are the party that's centre-left wherever they are. You had the weird situation of the former Conservative cabinet minister Jean Charest being asked to cross the floor and become a Liberal in order to fight the separatists in Quebec, but he was a blue red Tory in any event so the move wasn't that big.

I agree that the Conservatives shot themselves in the foot in Ontario in the last election, but hell, he was just being a Conservative, particularly a Harris Conservative. No more Common Sense revolution for the people of Ontario.

In my heart of hearts I doubt the Conservatives will lose next election, because Ontario went Liberal majority, even though it makes me sick at heart. I hope I'm wrong. I don't want Harper again, and I don't want the Conservatives in power in Ontario next time around either.

Whether Harper wins is mostly dependant on Ontario and has nothing to do with how they voted provincially. It's more about image. Whether they can trash Trudeau enough while keeping their brand from stinking too bad. And whether they can pull enough flagrantly illegal election tactics and get away with it like last time.

[maarsen]

Maybe it's just that I'm older than the rest of you, but I have been raised on the idea that Ontario will vote to make sure there are different parties in power federally and provincially. I don't think you can find another province that shows the same kind of pattern. As I said, I attribute it to people hedging their bets. :)

Whatever the label is on the party, the Conservatives (really the Reform party) are the right wing party and the Liberals are the centre, left of centre, party. Whether or not provincial Liberal parties are closely affiliated with the federal Liberal party doesn't really matter, they are the party that's centre-left wherever they are. You had the weird situation of the former Conservative cabinet minister Jean Charest being asked to cross the floor and become a Liberal in order to fight the separatists in Quebec, but he was a blue red Tory in any event so the move wasn't that big.

I agree that the Conservatives shot themselves in the foot in Ontario in the last election, but hell, he was just being a Conservative, particularly a Harris Conservative. No more Common Sense revolution for the people of Ontario.

In my heart of hearts I doubt the Conservatives will lose next election, because Ontario went Liberal majority, even though it makes me sick at heart. I hope I'm wrong. I don't want Harper again, and I don't want the Conservatives in power in Ontario next time around either.

During the Diefenbaker years, Ontario stayed Conservative even while the Feds were Conservative. Up until Frank Miller, the Cons in Ontario had a consecutive streak of 42 years in office. Having opposite parties in office federally and provincially was a recent innovation. There is hope.

(Damn, but I am showing My age.)

[Lord of Oop North]

So, the Ontario PCs elected Patrick Brown to be their new party leader

Now, under the unknown Brown — a right-leaning, pro-life, anti-gay-marriage social conservative — the PCs may be in bigger trouble than previously imagined. Never mind the last four election losses, and the virtual disappearance of the PCs from the GTA’s electoral map.

He out-hired, out-organized, outhustled, outsold and outmanoeuvred his competitors — whose lack of competitiveness made his march to victory a romp.

Brown went where no Ontario PCs had gone before in any numbers. He deserves full credit for copying the federal Conservative playbook by meeting and greeting and wooing and recruiting people in every church, temple, mosque and synagogue he could find across the province — proven vectors for reaching congregations that still congregate in person.

Brown was also backed by Christian evangelicals and the Campaign Life Coalition because he’d once voted to bring in new laws on abortion and revisit the legalization of gay marriage. He pandered shamelessly to opponents of the sex education curriculum, securing the support of social conservatives. And he was strongly supported by members of the Ontario Landowners’ Association, a libertarian movement that wants to get government off the land of landowners.

Brown doubtless knows better than to continue hewing rightward now that he has secured the leadership. Despite past pandering, he will reposition himself, post-convention, for a general election.

He has promised an end to the bad habits of the recent PC past: No more vilification of “union bosses.” No more snubbing of New Canadians. No more mass firings of civil servants in campaign platforms.

I can understand how he won the race. But ... does he have a chance at actually winning in Ontario? I dunno. The guy has had basically no opinion on anything during his leadership campaign.

It's hard to believe that this is the same party that Bill Davis was once at the helm of.

[Shryke]

So, the Ontario PCs elected Patrick Brown to be their new party leader

I can understand how he won the race. But ... does he have a chance at actually winning in Ontario? I dunno. The guy has had basically no opinion on anything during his leadership campaign.

It's hard to believe that this is the same party that Bill Davis was once at the helm of.

I'm terrified of shit like this. Like with the federal conservatives, once the crazies are in position you just need one bad election and you are in for a world of hurt.

[Lord of Oop North]

I'm terrified of shit like this. Like with the federal conservatives, once the crazies are in position you just need one bad election and you are in for a world of hurt.

I agree. We all know what he believes, but he seems cunning enough to realize that publicly espousing those positions will make him unelectable. Much like Harper, actually.

[Fragile Bird]

Here's an article by Steve Paikin from Feb. 26th predicting that Patrick Brown could win the PC leadership: http://theagenda.tvo.org/blog/agenda-blogs/steve-paikin-how-outsider-patrick-brown-could-win-pc-leadership

He's a professional politician, just like Harper, elected to city council in Barrie at age 22. He lost his first federal election in 2004 by 1,000 votes, then won then next one by 1,500 against the same opponent, then next won by 20,000 votes. That's a helluva a lot of votes to win an election by.

He's obviously hard working.

I totally did not pay attention to this, because I thought Christine Elliott was a shoo-in. Only recently when I read about what a pathetic shambles Harper's rules were about federal MPs not getting involved in provincial or municipal politics did I realize he had the backing of quite a few MPs. Those rules about not getting involved are typical, of course, of Harper's rules - paint a picture of how pristine you run things but ignore your own rules whenever it's to your advantage. Think of all the feds who hung around when Rob Ford ran for mayor.

I predict that when the right time comes up, he'll run for the leadership of the federal Conservatives.

[maarsen]

FB, as an observer of politics for way too many years, I suspect that this is not the groundbreaking news it seems to be at first glance. Political parties that are on their way to irrelevance usually follow similar paths. First, the old hasbeen makes a run for the leadership, and wins, but loses the election. Then, he/she is replaced by a younger, more radical leader who sees a chance to win now that the party is in disarray. However, by appealing to the more radical side, that leader also isolates him/herself form the voter base and loses again. Now the party is really irrelevant and anyone who is not in for a long stretch of rebuilding walks away and the it becomes a race to the bottom.

Patrick Brown is a nonentity in Ontario politics and has shown no indication of any political astuteness apart from the ability to get elected. At some point he actually has to be more than a mediocre backbencher. When I was young and in high school, we got to meet our MPP. This guy was a permanent backbencher for way too long and has the dubious distinction of being voted the most useless member of the legislature by the press gallery .But he never lost an election.

[Fragile Bird]

He was definitely playing the 'elect me' game in this campaign, the way Hudak did as well. It will be interesting to see if he's as big a failure. To his advantage, he never signed up for the "fire 100,000" campaign.

Big minus, though, is that Harper never appointed him to anything. Or spent $50 M in his riding.

[maarsen]

At some point he has to say something about what he wants to do once in office. Just like Hudak. Just a postscript to my mention of the most useless member. Federally, that riding went to, at the time, the youngest MP ever elected. Perrin Beatty. He was supposed to be a PC rising star, running in an absolutely safe riding, and the man was an absolute flub. But then he did make it to the Cabinet, which Brown hasn't done.

[Shryke]

At some point he has to say something about what he wants to do once in office. Just like Hudak. Just a postscript to my mention of the most useless member. Federally, that riding went to, at the time, the youngest MP ever elected. Perrin Beatty. He was supposed to be a PC rising star, running in an absolutely safe riding, and the man was an absolute flub. But then he did make it to the Cabinet, which Brown hasn't done.

Everyone makes it to the Harper Cabinet eventually. He's gotta rotate them so fast to cover their sheer incompetence that it quickly comes around.

[Fragile Bird]

I keep thinking the Conservatives can't sink any lower and somehow they keep managing to surprise me.

The Harper government is signalling its intention to use hate crime laws against Canadian advocacy groups that encourage boycotts of Israel.

Such a move could target a range of civil society organizations, from the United Church of Canada and the Canadian Quakers to campus protest groups and labour unions.

........................

The government's intention was made clear in a response to inquiries from CBC News about statements by federal ministers of a "zero tolerance" approach to groups participating in a loose coalition called Boycott, Divest and Sanction (BDS), which was begun in 2006 at the request of Palestinian non-governmental organizations.

Asked to explain what zero tolerance means, and what is being done to enforce it, a spokesperson for Public Safety Minister Steven Blaney replied, four days later, with a detailed list of Canada's updated hate laws, noting that Canada has one of the most comprehensive sets of such laws "anywhere in the world."

The BDS tactic has been far more successful for the Palestinians than armed struggle. And it has caught on internationally, angering Israel, which reckons boycotts could cost its economy hundreds of millions of dollars.

Just last month, 16 European foreign ministers denounced the "expansion of Israeli illegal settlements in the Occupied Territories," demanding that any imported goods originating in the settlements be distinctly labeled.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ottawa-considering-hate-charges-against-those-who-boycott-israel-1.3067497

Imagine if Harper was PM during the apartheid era in South Africa. Apartheid would still be there to this day. One of the major campaigns against South Africa was the decision people made not to buy South African wine. Church groups certainly would not buy South African wine, either for church services or social functions.

Can you imagine a church group announcing they won't buy Israeli wine for the Women's League dinners then being charged with committing a hate crime?

Un-fucking-believable.

[Shryke]

Will certainly be struck down. This is just wanking off their base and a make-work project for lawyers.

[Fragile Bird]

Will certainly be struck down. This is just wanking off their base and a make-work project for lawyers.

Eventually, when someone takes it to court. But you can be damn sure it's meant to chill the actions of people who are against Israeli settlement expansion on the West Bank. And fighting it means hiring lawyers, because, of course, the Conservatives cancelled the court challenges program because, as John Baird said, why would they pay people to oppose legislation the government passed?

Why would you oppose any action taken by any government, or any identifiable group, in the world, since it could all easily fall under the umbrella of the hate crime laws?

[Shryke]

Why would you oppose any action taken by any government

That basically sums up their attitude on everything. They just don't get why everyone doesn't just accept that Harper is King.

[OnionAhaiReborn]

Montreal Conservative resigns amid reports candidacy was part of art project

MONTREAL—A Montreal artist has resigned his spot as a Conservative candidate in this fall's federal election after suggestions he had sought the nomination as part of an elaborate performance art project.

A spokesman for the federal Tories in Ottawa announced that Chris Lloyd, the 42-year-old candidate for the riding of Papineau who was slated to face Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau in this fall's vote, had abruptly “resigned” Tuesday. The news came shortly after the CBC reported Lloyd's electoral bid was for art's sake rather than for lower taxes, tougher laws or other near-and-dear Conservative principles.

:lol:

[Fragile Bird]

My greatest sorrow is that he didn't manage to hang in there until the writs dropped and it would be too late for the Conservatives to get rid of him. :P :(

[Fragile Bird]

It was very touching to hear how Peter MacKay is leaving politics to spend more time with his family. Funny how 30 Conservative MPs are leaving to spend more time with their families. The fact that if they stay and get re-elected they can't collect their $125,000+ annual pensions until they turn 65, instead of starting to collect the full pension at 55, and have to triple their contributions (they only pay $11,000 now) has absolutely nothing to do with it.

By choosing not to reoffer in this year's federal election, Justice Minister Peter MacKay joins a growing list of Conservative MPs who will avoid the impact of pension changes that will triple the amount they must contribute and lock in the money for an extra 10 years.

MacKay's decision, announced last week, means he will be able to collect his full yearly pension of $128,832 at age 55, instead of 65.

Under new pension rules for MPs passed in 2013, all politicians elected after the next election must wait until age 65 before they can draw a pension.

In MacKay's case, those 10 years represent almost $1.3 million.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/peter-mackay-exit-allows-him-to-collect-full-pension-at-55-1.3095572

[Shryke]

It was very touching to hear how Peter McKay is leaving politics to spend more time with his family. Funny how 30 Conservative MPs are leaving to spend more time with their families. The fact that if they stay and get re-elected they can't collect their $125,000+ annual pensions until they turn 65, instead of starting to collect the full pension at 55, and have to triple their contributions (they only pay $11,000 now) has absolutely nothing to do with it.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/peter-mackay-exit-allows-him-to-collect-full-pension-at-55-1.3095572

I'll pay it to rid ourselves of that fuck stick.